"A gift." That's what my friends said when they took me to see Pink Flamingos on my birthday 40 or so years ago. "Just wait til the last scene," they said.Indeed. Consider this win a gift from me.
Good JinxIt's very much in the Sox' interest to have the division clinched before the final 3 games; so in my mind they are 5 1/2 ahead with 19 to go (20 to go for NYY). So if the Sox were a mediocre 9-10 the Yanks would need to be 15-5 to overcome that. That's still .750 ball.
10-9 and they would have to go 16-4, .800 ball.
(edit). Make that 5 to go with 18/20, my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today. So 9-9 or 10-8 the rest of the way.
Sorry...being in the car in the middle of the PM is pretty unusual. BUT this is worth watching....Can you provide us with a WFAN update THIS afternoon? Much obliged.
To put it another way - the Yankees have played 30 games since the sweep in Fenway and have gone 19-11 (.633). In any other year, we might be reading stories about how that series was a wakeup call for them and how they responded (complete with bonus stories touting their resilience after losing Sanchez, Judge, etc. to the DL), but all of that is ignored because the Red Sox have played .643 ball since the sweep (18-10).Pick a time, either the morning of August or September 6th and the Red Sox lead over NY is the same - 9.5 games.
I never relax until the MFY are dead and a stake has been driven through their collective little hearts.since TB took us to the cleaners, and the Yanks gained 3.5 games in that single weekend, we have gone 7-2, while the Yankees have gone 4-6 - regaining those 3.5 games back.
can we relax now? at least until October 5?
We must express our collective angst so that the team can make a mockery of it. It's all part of the process, grasshopper.#trainwreckthread
#embarrassingthread
#whattheactualfuckthread
Well, it's more about the math than their players at this point. 9.5 up with 22 to play is a tall task for any team to make up.Severino just got crushed again last night. The Yankees are not coming anywhere close to this division. Their rotation is not up to the task, not by a long shot.
Some angst when it was down to 6 Post Tampa series was warranted. As the lead has rebounded. After yesterday it had to be a 1 at this point. I was a 4 after Tampa.I said a couple days ago anyone still worried about the regular season was irrational, today anyone still worried is delusional.
That would do it. NY best win total is now 109. Do it? Put the final nail in the coffin, how my ass taste, you’re our bitch for the third straight year.538 and Fangraphs have them up to 110 wins.
With respect that's not quite trueThe numbers take our emotion, bias, and closeness out of it, and they say that the pen urinates on itself less than most teams.
Utter certainty? The odds that flipping a fair coin 60 times and getting 40 or more heads is less than 1% (~0.674% to be a bit more precise).With respect that's not quite true
If I flip a coin 60 times and hit 40 heads I can tell you with utter certainty that the chance of throwing a head this time is 50%
Results over any given period of time and especially in short sample periods do not necessarily reflect the 'true' likelihood of any event
This would be to speak to the team’s “true quality” of which how they actually play is only data.With respect that's not quite true
If I flip a coin 60 times and hit 40 heads I can tell you with utter certainty that the chance of throwing a head this time is 50%
Results over any given period of time and especially in short sample periods do not necessarily reflect the 'true' likelihood of any event
so the sweep against Altanta meant bupkis?8 game lead with 19 left. But I’d feel a lot less worried if they could get a couple of more games from these playoff teams, HOU, CLE and MFY.
SABRmetrics have ruined the game.How are they 12-15 against AL playoff teams when they're 2-4 against the Astros, 2-2 against Cleveland, 2-4 against the A's, and 8-5 against the MFYs? I'm no math expert, but I had no idea my parents failed when they taught me how to add more than 50 years ago.
Pretty much. Every playoff team in the AL is better than Atlanta.so the sweep against Altanta meant bupkis?
How are they 12-15 against AL playoff teams when they're 2-4 against the Astros, 2-2 against Cleveland, 2-4 against the A's, and 8-5 against the MFYs? I'm no math expert, but I had no idea my parents failed when they taught me how to add more than 50 years ago.
It's incredibly hardSABRmetrics have ruined the game.
Come for the angst, stay for the Bayesian analysis.. . . Even if I thought beforehand that there was a 1,000,000:1 chance that the coin was biased, after flipping 40 heads out of 60 I'd have to recalibrate my estimate and say there was now up to a 33,440:1 chance that the coin is biased and so the next flip being heads would be 50.0005%
It meant a ton. Imagine if the lead were 4.5 instead of 7.5.so the sweep against Altanta meant bupkis?
And without that other sweep they'd be tied.It meant a ton. Imagine if the lead were 4.5 instead of 7.5.
Our pitchers are terrified of them? Come on.We can’t beat Houston in a seven-game series. Our pitchers are terrified of them and the bottom of our lineup has too many holes. We would/will beat the Indians, Yanks, and As, but we just don’t match up against the Astros.
They have scalding water in their veinsOur pitchers are terrified of them? Come on.
1. Our pitchers are terrified of them.Our pitchers are terrified of them? Come on.
Went 3-4 against them. The reverse in a 7-game series is not implausible.