Are they done moving salary?

E5 Yaz

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So ... is this it?

Whatever you think of the Betts/Price trade, if the rationale was that it was done to reset their position below the tax threshold ... why stop now?

You can make the case that the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Astros and A's are better regular-season teams than the Red Sox right now. You can project that the Angels, Indians and even the White Sox might be as good as the Red Sox right now.

So, if you're Boston, and you want to rake out the underbrush and start anew ... do you move more contracts? Do you try to trade Eovaldi? Do you anticipate that JD will actually opt out this time, and see if someone wants him at the trade deadline? Is JBJ worth holding onto at this point?

If they're clearing salary, do they actually do it ... or do they stop now and half-ass it?
 

santadevil

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I can't find the post right now in the trade thread and we won't officially know until we know Price's cash going across
But someone mentioned that we can move a large portion of the cash moving across into this year, like 20M+, and then do smaller amounts for the last two years at 8.5M each

I don't know if that's the case or not
If they can, when do they need to set that number? When the trade is official? Or can they wait to 2020 to finish before they determine that number?
If they use a higher number, I assume they have to actually send that cash? Or only what they agreed to cover for Price each year?
 

JimD

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Sure you do, but no more subsidies. I just can't see many teams lining up to take Sale, JDM, JBJ or Eovaldi off their hands.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Eight days out from pitchers and catchers reporting, they're under the luxury tax, they damn well better be done shedding salary. Pickings are a bit slim to fill the gaps at this point.

If they were going for a full on fire-sale salary dump, they'd have done this in November/December for pennies on the dollar, rather than wait until now.
 

jon abbey

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I can't find the post right now in the trade thread and we won't officially know until we know Price's cash going across
But someone mentioned that we can move a large portion of the cash moving across into this year, like 20M+, and then do smaller amounts for the last two years at 8.5M each

I don't know if that's the case or not
If they can, when do they need to set that number? When the trade is official? Or can they wait to 2020 to finish before they determine that number?
If they use a higher number, I assume they have to actually send that cash? Or only what they agreed to cover for Price each year?
It's already in Cot's as $16M per season, not that that is definitive.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRHU26eqSx5Ei3OAlzcqYreTOpeAEpGIFmXkmcze-c76bh-lioOnk5iyXenZDM3bBpzm6Xp_iRFijdB/pubhtml
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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So ... is this it?

Whatever you think of the Betts/Price trade, if the rationale was that it was done to reset their position below the tax threshold ... why stop now?

You can make the case that the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Astros and A's are better regular-season teams than the Red Sox right now. You can project that the Angels, Indians and even the White Sox might be as good as the Red Sox right now.

So, if you're Boston, and you want to rake out the underbrush and start anew ... do you move more contracts? Do you try to trade Eovaldi? Do you anticipate that JD will actually opt out this time, and see if someone wants him at the trade deadline? Is JBJ worth holding onto at this point?

If they're clearing salary, do they actually do it ... or do they stop now and half-ass it?
It's a good question but I'm not sure it matters as much in baseball as it does for example in football. It's a zero sum game in football, so every dollar you shed gives you a dollar you can spend elsewhere. For baseball, the most significant thing is to be at or below 207,999,999 this year. If that happens we don't need to care too much for three years. Speier seems to use the number $10 million as the number that you need to have as a war chest to start the season. So, it looks like the Sox are $10 million under even with that $10 million. I'd love it if they could use up more of the remaining $10 million to front load the subsidy for Price if that's allowed (as asked above).

But, beyond that, the question about shedding salary is I think just a question about whether or not the player is going to be worth his or her contract from 2021 on, if we assume 2020 is an under the cap year. So, looking at the contracts as they will look in 2021 they look like this pretty much:

Sale: 4/115
JDM: 2/38.75 with opt out
Xander: 4/80
Eovalid: 2/34

None of those bothers me with the possible exception of Sale. And even Sale doesn't look too bad when you look at deals like, say, Jeff Smardja's or Jake Arrieta's.

tl/dr -- so long as they are going to be under in 2020 I don't really see a pressing need to get rid of any other deal.

Edit: Did I really say "his or her" contract? Holy shit -- I've been writing work e-mails all day.

Leaving it just in case we sign the first woman baseball player in the next year.
 

Green Monster

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Would seem, next order of business is to hire a manager. Then explore extending Devers and/or Benny. Perhaps signing Brock Holt and possibly a pitcher but staying under the cap (thin pickings as Red(s)HawksFan points out). I would guess that they would entertain trading JBJ etc at the deadline if the standings dictate.
 

Jimbodandy

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Would seem, next order of business is to hire a manager. Then explore extending Devers and/or Benny. Perhaps signing Brock Holt and possibly a pitcher but staying under the cap (thin pickings as Red(s)HawksFan points out). I would guess that they would entertain trading JBJ etc at the deadline if the standings dictate.
There is zero reason to trade Devers or Benintendi.

I wouldn't be shocked if JDM is dangled or even moved in July, if some rich team is desperate for a bat. His no trade includes like three teams.

Edit: misread that, sorry.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I agree that JDM seems like the most likely candidate if the Red Sox are out of the playoff hunt.

The contract is a bit of an illusion. He's essentially going to be a rental because there is no upside in future years. After 2020 if he's more valuable than 2/38.75 he'll opt out and if he's not he won't and so a team will be stuck with a contract that is not worth it.

Also, I'm pretty sure that even if he opted out this year he still would have cost something for the Sox. Speier had a reference in one of his competitive balance tax articles that suggested it was $6 or $7 million. Not sure if that would also be the case if he opts out next year.
 

moondog80

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Even after this, making the playoffs is still not some longshot. Here's how fangraphs put it a little while back:

A lot went wrong in 2019, more than you’d expect in a typical season, and the roster justified more than their lackluster 84-78.

The team could pick up a major league outfielder in a Betts trade, of course, but even an average player would still be a four-win hit from the Betts expectation.
And that’s a big deal. Boston’s not a 100-win team dropping to 96 wins in this scenario; they’re more like a 92-win team dropping to an 88-win one. The latter fall constitutes a much larger change in the trajectory of their fate.
Now, this projection does not account for losing Price, which is significant -- another 3 wins, approximately. But even if all they do is put a 0 WAR guy in his spot, that's still a projection of about 85 wins. 85 won't be enough most likely, but you don't need a crazy amount of things to break your way for that to number to go up enough get you into the playoffs.

So, don't sell off anymore for now. But if things look bad at the deadline, do what the Yankees did a few years back and hope you get another Glyeber Torres.

 

Ale Xander

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Eight days out from pitchers and catchers reporting, they're under the luxury tax, they damn well better be done shedding salary. Pickings are a bit slim to fill the gaps at this point.

If they were going for a full on fire-sale salary dump, they'd have done this in November/December for pennies on the dollar, rather than wait until now.
In a way, it makes sense at a heartless level to do this now instead of November, because of ticket sales and such.

They can't be seen as doing a straight up obvious salary dump, not in this market.
 

E5 Yaz

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Even after this, making the playoffs is still not some longshot. Here's how fangraphs put it a little while back:



Now, this projection does not account for losing Price, which is significant -- another 3 wins, approximately. But even if all they do is put a 0 WAR guy in his spot, that's still a projection of about 85 wins. 85 won't be enough most likely, but you don't need a crazy amount of things to break your way for that to number to go up enough get you into the playoffs.

So, don't sell off anymore for now. But if things look bad at the deadline, do what the Yankees did a few years back and hope you get another Glyeber Torres.

It also doesn't take into account the moves of those equal to or slightly below them a year ago.
 

moondog80

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It also doesn't take into account the moves of those equal to or slightly below them a year ago.
Yeah, it's going to be hard. 89 wins might not be enough. But it's not some remote chance, well within the range where it's not worth selling off pieces just yet.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Done for now but Bloom won't hesitate to see what he can get at the deadline for anyone making big money. And as someone noted above, no more paying down the contracts. They aren't that bad. I'd see what offers are out there for JD, Eovaldi, Workman and JBJ, but not in some desperate move to save money. I'd have to be getting something of real value for each of those guys.
 

Carmine Hose

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I think, if healthy, JDM will be highly sought after on July 31. Think about the Rays. If they are in it, they would love that bat, and the risk seems low that he would opt in to stay there if he's having a good-enough season to be actually sought after. If he plays that well, he'd tear up the remaining two years and move on.
 

SoxinSeattle

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Emotions aside I really like where they're at. See how the season goes and if they're out at the deadline trade for prospects.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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They're about $20M under the tax limit after this deal, as JA's Cot's grab shows. Why would they move more salary? They've accomplished their goal. If anything I would expect them to (carefully) add a bit, for instance by signing Holt and maybe Taijuan Walker to shore up the weak spots in their bench and SP depth, respectively.
 

shaggydog2000

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They're about $20M under the tax limit after this deal, as JA's Cot's grab shows. Why would they move more salary? They've accomplished their goal. If anything I would expect them to (carefully) add a bit, for instance by signing Holt and maybe Taijuan Walker to shore up the weak spots in their bench and SP depth, respectively.
I would expect them to add a bit of salary in a few signings or trades.
 

OurF'ingCity

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JDM, JBJ and Workman are all potential trade deadline deals.
Yeah, none of those guys indiviudally given their contracts are good enough to guarantee an amazing return at the deadline but if they do go into fire-sale mode I'd be hopeful that they could trade multiple players for a basket of slightly-better-than-lottery-ticket prospects to restock the farm system and hope one or two of those become future key contributors.

Edit: I could even see them moving on from Benintendi depending on how this season goes and what they get offered in return, given that I think we more or less know what kind of player he is and he only has two years of control left after this year.
 

Stanley Steamer

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They're about $20M under the tax limit after this deal, as JA's Cot's grab shows. Why would they move more salary? They've accomplished their goal. If anything I would expect them to (carefully) add a bit, for instance by signing Holt and maybe Taijuan Walker to shore up the weak spots in their bench and SP depth, respectively.
This is where I'm at. They made the move they had to. From here forward, any move can be made with an eye to improving the team, and nothing more than that. They have a few needs before the season, for which they'll find affordable solutions. They can shed salary and aim for draft picks if they suck this year, or add players in a careful manner if they are in the running.
 

Plympton91

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To me, there is no legitimate chance of making a playoff run given the injury status of the current roster, lack of any depth in the rotation or bullpen, and likely regression by Vazquez and others if they stop using juiced balls.

I currently would pick them for a close 4th place in the East, and 9th place in the AL.

They should absolutely be exploring trade options for any player who is unlikely to be a major asset in 2022, which is likely the next window, assuming some of the flickers of light in the low minors pan out.

I would be looking to deal Workman before he even throws a pitch in spring training. His value is likely as high as it will ever be. JDM obviously, Barnes and Perez at the deadline. Restock the farm to the greatest extent possible.

Of course, what they’ll do instead is give Brock Holt and a couple middle relievers still available a contract and pretend they didn’t wave a white flag last night.
 

bosockboy

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To me, there is no legitimate chance of making a playoff run given the injury status of the current roster, lack of any depth in the rotation or bullpen, and likely regression by Vazquez and others if they stop using juiced balls.

I currently would pick them for a close 4th place in the East, and 9th place in the AL.

They should absolutely be exploring trade options for any player who is unlikely to be a major asset in 2022, which is likely the next window, assuming some of the flickers of light in the low minors pan out.

I would be looking to deal Workman before he even throws a pitch in spring training. His value is likely as high as it will ever be. JDM obviously, Barnes and Perez at the deadline. Restock the farm to the greatest extent possible.

Of course, what they’ll do instead is give Brock Holt and a couple middle relievers still available a contract and pretend they didn’t wave a white flag last night.
By projected WAR they are predicted to be the 2nd WC. Even without Mookie. I want to see Sale pitch before we move anyone.
 

DeadlySplitter

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does projected WAR account for injury likelihood? because the argument is our rotation is one of the flimsiest in years, and any DL time for Sale might just end our contention straight up.

We need good drafts so badly, and soon, or X/Devers will be wasted as far as contention goes. It's a miracle they did so well in the 2010s supplementing their lack of pitching, but now that bill has come heavily due, and they also are lacking in depth at OF, 2B/1B, and C.

I can definitely see a path where we need to blow it up in a year or two. I would want to see what the hell the new CBA is though before going down that path.
 

uncannymanny

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and likely regression by Vazquez and others if they stop using juiced balls.
Does this include the regression of pitchers last season due to the same? Remember the gopher ball parade (at least) early in 2019?
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Depending where they are in the standings in May I could see them moving on from JBJ Perez 2 Bags JDM Workman and Barnes. Maybe ERod as well if they don't feel comfortable with what he's going to want in as a FA in a couple years. If they're really south of .500 after May then this is a team that I don't think management would hesitate to pull the plug on.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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By projected WAR they are predicted to be the 2nd WC. Even without Mookie. I want to see Sale pitch before we move anyone.
This is it for me. If Sale is for some reason just broken now, this rotation turns into a tire fire and all hope is lost. If we get sub-3 ERA Sale back for a full season, with EdRod we've got the makings of something, assuming X-Devers-JD all perform as expected.
 

JimD

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This is it for me. If Sale is for some reason just broken now, this rotation turns into a tire fire and all hope is lost. If we get sub-3 ERA Sale back for a full season, with EdRod we've got the makings of something, assuming X-Devers-JD all perform as expected.
To add to this, the $18 million in payroll flexibility (assuming that is the final number) gives Bloom a lot of options to add pieces in June and July if Sale and Eovaldi are healthy and performing as they are capable of and the rest of the team is healthy and productive. That is a lot of 'ifs', of course, but I'm not ready to completely write off 2020 yet.