Are the Pats the worst team in the NFL?

[ShaneTrot]

The Pats are predicted by most betting houses to have an Over-Under win total of 4.5. The Panthers and the Broncos are next at 5.5. I can see why, the offense and special teams were horrendous last year. The defense was good even though it suffered through a decent number of injuries. The 2024 offensive line is ranked 28th by PFF. The schedule is brutal.

Reasons for optimism: The special teams, namely the kicker, cannot be this bad again. The Pats lost 7 one-score games in 2023. (I know bad teams lose close games). They have infused the roster with young offensive talent. Drake Maye could be the 2024 C J Stroud. Gonzalez and Judon are healthy to start 2024. Maybe Mayo and the new staff know what they are doing. They resigned their good players. Mac Jones will not be fumbling and throwing the ball to the other team. They had a consensus draft.

Reasons for pessimism: This schedule is brutal. This team has no proven left tackle. The line will continue to suck in pass protection. The defense was decent but gave up 21.5 points per game which was 15th and only forced 18 turnovers. Gonzalez and Barmore were good in spurts last year, can they stay healthy and productive for a whole season? The weapons on offense are unproven or lackluster. Is Rhamondre worth his contract and will he be healthy and productive? Maybe Mayo and the new staff don't know what they are doing. Drake Maye is either a disaster or a middling rookie QB. This team lack blue chip players. BB, the coach, is a huge loss.

I don't think the Pats are lousier than the Panthers. I was convinced that the 2023 Pats were going to contend for a playoff spot because Billy O'Brien was going to fix the offense. In fact, they made the offense worse by not getting real offensive tackles, and replacing Jakobi with JuJu. Plus Mac Jones just fell off a cliff. I want to be optimistic about the 2024 Pats but there are a lot of holes on this roster. Where are you at?

 

[astrozombie]

This team is better than last year. No Mac Jones, no pressure to make the decision to move on from BB, a solid draft, Gonzalez and Judon back, maybe some new schemes, maybe Mayo's voice provides some new energy after the BB years. I can see some players making good progress (White, Douglas).
That said, I don't think it is going to reflected in their record. Their schedule looks to be brutal and their O line gives me very little confidence. Optimistically, I think this is a team that is going to be competitive in losses (unlike last year's team, which often just looked wounded and trying to survive), then go into the offseason with some clear needs and another high-ish draft pick. I am not punting on this year since there are surprises good/bad every season, but hopefully they are setting themselves up for success the season after.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I have no idea what to expect from this team. They’ve filled few of the holes on offense. They’re returning much of the same defense that was good. They’ve made some changes around the edges on ST. Anywhere between 1-8 wins seems possible depending on the competency of the coaching staff, development of Maye, quality of the OL, not repeating bad injury luck for star defensive players, and making some field goals. I am as clueless as I’ve ever been about a Pats team.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Mac was so awful last year that with any other QB they would have had at least two more wins (NYG, IND). It's hard to know what to expect from this year's team but merely replacing Mac with Brissett and then Maye should logically be worth 2 wins.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

It’s a five win team.

 

[Arroyoyo]

I think they’re a 6-7 win team. Their defense and a marginally-functional NFL offense can get them there. So not the worst. They’ll have somewhere between the 6-8th pick in the 2025 draft though.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Mac was so awful last year that with any other QB they would have had at least two more wins (NYG, IND). It's hard to know what to expect from this year's team but merely replacing Mac with Brissett and then Maye should logically be worth 2 wins.

I am looking forward to testing your theory on this (and hope that you're right).

The "Mac is THE actual problem" hypothesis will be put to the test.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The "Mac is THE actual problem" hypothesis will be put to the test.

I'd rather it be put to rest

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I am looking forward to testing your theory on this (and hope that you're right).

The "Mac is THE actual problem" hypothesis will be put to the test.

Well the response to that was, "no it's BB and his outdated way of managing".... so there's no real way to say it was either if they run off with 7 or more wins

 

[Kliq]

I'd take the over on them for wins at the moment. The schedule looks hard now, on July 1, who knows what it will look like when we actually play some of those teams. Right now the Pats wouldn't be favored to win many of those games, but it's pretty hard in the NFL to win three games or fewer.

The defense was good last year and were missing their two best players in Judon and Gonzalez for most of the season. Losing Bill Belichick obviously is a blow to the defense, but they've done about as good of a job as you can expect in retaining the rest of the brain trust on that side of the ball.

On offense, the skill positions have been upgraded (even if its just modest upgrades from the dreck we had before) and Brissett alone is a much better QB than anyone who took snaps last year. Let alone what Maye's ceiling may be.

 

[Auger34]

I'd guess anywhere between 3 and 6 wins. A very tough schedule and the offensive line+skill players are among the bottom 5 (at best(

 

[Ralphwiggum]

To me the biggest wildcard here is Mayo. We have no idea if he can be an NFL head coach or not, and even if he has what it takes he might struggle at first with all of the responsibilities that go into being a coach. We know the roster still has a lot of holes, if they also picked the wrong guy to succeed BB it is going to be a very long year.

 

[dynomite]

Mac was so awful last year that with any other QB they would have had at least two more wins (NYG, IND). It's hard to know what to expect from this year's team but merely replacing Mac with Brissett and then Maye should logically be worth 2 wins.

I hear that... but man, looking back at the games last year they played so many tomato cans and/or backup QBs. A Steelers team with Mitchell Trubisky at QB. A Giants team with Tommy Devito and his shinebox at QB. A Commanders team with Howell at QB. A Raiders team with Brian freaking Hoyer at QB in the 2nd half. A Broncos team with old Russell Wilson at QB. And, of course, two games against Zach Wilson and the J-E-S-T.

That's 6 of the worst QBs to take the field last season, only one of whom is likely to be a starter in 2024 (Wilson, right?).

And yes, of course the response to that is "Well, you don't know who will get injured this year -- it might be just as bad!" Maybe I'm just not remembering how many QBs get injured every year. But I don't remember many years like that -- in 2022, for example, they most notably got to face all-time "Who?" QB Sam Ehlinger on the Colts, as well as Trubisky (again) on the Steelers and our pal Jacoby as QB of the Browns, but it wasn't quite the same parade of dreck that we saw in 2023.

Potential lnjuries aside, this year the current "worst" QBs I see on the schedule look to be Will Levis (@ TEN, Week 9) and maybe Caleb Williams (@ CHI, Week 10)?

 

[j-man]

if mayo is a top 15 coach 5-7 wins if not 2-4 wins couild start 0-6 which will make ownship start maye

its sad 8 years denver and N E was fighting for super bowls now its the num 1 pick

while denver is stateing at a 0-9 road rec other than KC in week 18 the other 7 home games are winnable

i see a 1-5 afc east rec and if rodgers is hot both games 0-6 AFC South couild go 3-1 but 2-2 1-3 more likely u will lose @ ciny NFC West 1-3 @ chi is a toss up but i learn loss

best case 7-10
worse case 2-15

and btw that goes for denver as well

if u win 6-7 games and maye shows promise in dec watch out in 25

i brouht athlon pro football today and they have u only ahead of car at 31 they have a ravens lions SB with ravens winning

 

[lexrageorge]

It's not going to be a good year. The rebuild was always going to be a 3-5 year process, so anything over 4 wins is gravy.

 

[Seels]

Offense is still among the worst in the league unless Maye is great from the get go. I think they are better than they were last year, but their defense overachieved and had Belichick.

I don't think they're the worst team in the league, and could squint and see a playoff team if Maye is good, but I think they have both a low floor and low ceiling. I'd guess 7 wins.

 

[Jinhocho]

If you had Bill and Josh et al here for the season I would think a good bounce back to even something like 9-8 or 10-7 would be possible. I never thought they were that awful last year but Mac was about as awful as could be and it just wrecked their chances. With Bill gone and Steve and no Josh coming back, who the hell knows?

I think it comes down to:

1) how much you believe in Mayo (he has never head coached or called plays from what I know
2) AVP and the rest of the offensive braintrust. They missed out on all the big names and we get a guy who hasnt always called games on the offensive side of the ball
3) How much of a step does the defense take back, if at all, with no Bill and no Steve and a coordinator who has never been a coordinator before.

I think the biggest story is the inexperience of the coaching staff. I could see us winning 7-8 in a best case or struggling to meet last years mark if things go wrong.

It will be an interesting year for sure.

 

[Salem's Lot]

The best thing that they could do is be patient, play Brissett the entire season so that Maye can have a year devoted to getting on a NFL training program and learning an NFL offense, while the team goes 2-15 and trades that number 1 overall pick to some QB desperate team to trade down for multiple top 5 picks and draft a stud left tackle and receiver to put with Maye for the next decade.

 

[AlNipper49]

I get that their strength of schedule is tough, but I’d come close to emptying my life savings on the Oats having more wins than the Panthers. That is a BAD team.

 

[nattysez]

I get that their strength of schedule is tough, but I’d come close to emptying my life savings on the Oats having more wins than the Panthers. That is a BAD team.

I agree. I don't think Chase Young can play at all.

Sitting here right now, I see 1 win on the Pats' schedule - @TEN - and 0 on the Panthers' schedule. I could be convinced that @Raiders could be a win for Carolina, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I get that their strength of schedule is tough, but I’d come close to emptying my life savings on the Oats having more wins than the Panthers. That is a BAD team.

Panthers are probably worse in terms of talent but play in (likely) a much softer division in a (likely) much softer conference

Also a good chance Bryce Young and their new/revamped OL are better than Brissett/Maye/Pats OL which counts for a lot in today’s NFL

Pats and Panthers are likely both drafting top 5 in April

 

[Ale Xander]

Panthers have to be worse, no?

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Mac was so awful last year that with any other QB they would have had at least two more wins (NYG, IND). It's hard to know what to expect from this year's team but merely replacing Mac with Brissett and then Maye should logically be worth 2 wins.

It might have been worth 2 wins with last year’s opponents and last year’s opposing QB’s with last year’s Belichick ( and son) defense

Not worth much with a totally different set of rosters league-wide and a brand new coaching staff

 

[Old Fart Tree]

could squint and see a playoff team

 

[luckiestman]

And, of course, two games against Zach Wilson and the J-E-S-T.

It was Trevor Siemian who retired BB in a snow game. Pre internet this would have become a great trivia question.

 

[luckiestman]

Panthers have to be worse, no?

Canales got a lot out of Baker. He might be able to do something with the QB.

 

[dynomite]

It was Trevor Siemian who retired BB in a snow game. Pre internet this would have become a great trivia question.

Jeez, forgot that. Good spot.

God, the 2023 Pats played some of the worst QBs this side of Hugh Millen.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I have no idea what to expect from this team. They’ve filled few of the holes on offense. They’re returning much of the same defense that was good. They’ve made some changes around the edges on ST. Anywhere between 1-8 wins seems possible depending on the competency of the coaching staff, development of Maye, quality of the OL, not repeating bad injury luck for star defensive players, and making some field goals. I am as clueless as I’ve ever been about a Pats team.

I'd guess anywhere between 3 and 6 wins. A very tough schedule and the offensive line+skill players are among the bottom 5 (at best(

You all said it. I would add to this that the Belichicks ran a modern NFL defense that was widely considered a top unit. Bill is still a savant on that side of the ball. Losing him and Steve might really hurt. There is so much potential downside from the coaching and the players and the schedule. There is less upside or reason for optimism but it still exists… 1-8 wins and if I had to guess now I’d say 4 but better vibes by the end of the year.

Put it this way… if it is a bottom 5 offense and a mid defense we’re talking 0-5 wins (so likely 2? 3? 4?). If the offense is 22nd or so with a top 10 defense they could win 7-8 games.

 

[Mooch]

I think anything near .500 would be a major achievement for this team and would be something to build on. The only way I see that being possible is if Maye progresses quickly. Absent that, we’re looking at under 6 wins for sure.

 

[Manuel Aristides]

My crystal ball shows 5-12, with a gutsy w17 or 18 win from Maye that isn't pretty but gets everyone excited anyway (despite pushing us out of the top 3 picks).

 

[BaseballJones]

Well on the bright side, if the Pats are the worst team in the league (or at least finish with the worst record), then another top pick is coming. The whole key to the Pats' future, obviously, is whether Maye can be THE MAN. If he can't be, then the rebuild will take much, much longer. But if he can be - even if it takes a few years like Josh Allen - then we can have high expectations that the Pats will once again be outstanding. But yeah, we're in the process now, and it's not too enjoyable. But I'm ok with it if they eventually get there.

 

[TomRicardo]

I mean if they aren't going to be competitive wouldn't you want them to be the worst team? Get a No. 1 pick, make sure Drake Maye takes a year, maybe takes reps later in the year but stays healthy.

The line is a real problem right now, I would be worried putting a rookie QB behind it.

 

[Auger34]

I mean if they aren't going to be competitive wouldn't you want them to be the worst team? Get a No. 1 pick, make sure Drake Maye takes a year, maybe takes reps later in the year but stays healthy.

The line is a real problem right now, I would be worried putting a rookie QB behind it.

This is exactly where I am.

It will suck watching it but I don't think this team is anything close to playoff caliber. If you're not going to make the playoffs and you have a young roster/coaching staff then you may as well get the #1 pick.

Then you can either take a stud LT or hope that a QB pops and then you can trade down for a bounty and set yourself up even more for the future

 

[ObstructedView]

Others have done a good job of outlining the key variables. My gut tells me they'll overperform and end up in the 5-6 win range, based mostly on the assumptions that the defense will still be solid if not spectacular and that they'll have replacement-level QB play with Brisette starting most of the games. Even with what appears to be a daunting schedule, it's hard to be really bad if you have those two things.

For what it's worth, there were a few notable oddsmaker whiffs last season - including the Pats coming well short of their 8.5 O/U, the Chargers and trendy Jets falling short, and Houston surprising everyone on the up-side. I'm obviously not breaking any news in pointing out that it's impossible to fully predict the future - especially with injuries, coaching changes, and how difficult it is to evaluate incoming QBs.

 

[amfox1]

I could easily see NE begin 0-6, with SEA being the most winnable game. Then, there is the "softer" middle of the schedule, with potential wins versus TEN/CHI/IND/ARI. Finally, the last three games look rough.

I'm going to go with 4 wins (SEA, @TEN, IND, @ARI), with the QB switch to Maye after the second Jet game (with the team at 1-7). No division wins. #2 pick in draft (Will Campbell, LT, LSU).

 

[Ralphwiggum]

The problem with them bottoming out this year and winning 1 or 2 games is that Mayo needs to start building a winning locker room again. And it is going to be hard to evaluate Mayo as a coach in that scenario. I'd rather see them be a 5-6 win team with them starting off looking terrible but showing improvement as the year goes along, and I'm OK sacrificing a few draft slots to see that improvement (particularly if it comes after they make a move to Maye).

 

[Rico Guapo]

Carolina is definitely worse, I'd argue Washington and Arizona are worse as well.

That said there is a tremendous amount of variability heading into the season (new coaching staff, new QB, lots of new pieces on offense), so while the Vegas number feels lowish, I'm not sure they exceed it unless a few things break their way.

 

[Jimbodandy]

The good news is that they don't need a top3 pick this year. It's a developmental year. Win three games, six games, who cares? Obviously the higher the pick, the more valuable it is in trade. But any high pick allows them to add impact talent, whether it's #2 or #10.

Boring prediction here, but I think that we're looking at 4-6 wins.

 

[Curtis Pride]

I don't really care how many game the Pats win this year. If they show improvement at the end of the season from the beginning, there's room for optimism. If the OL can improve to a middle-third unit, that would go a long way into rebuilding a contender.

 

[the1andonly3003]

They are dishing out contract extensions left and right this offseason. Are we stuck with a bad team for the next few seasons?

 

[RG33]

Vegas lines for the Patriots to NOT make the playoffs is -2000. By far, the biggest odds.

Next two teams are the Broncos at -1000 and Panthers at -800.

Vegas thinks the Patriots are the worst team. By far.

I think this team can win 7-8 games with a healthy defense, JB bringing some mediocre QB play, and an offense that should be much more functional. Tough division, tough schedule, new HC — but I am excited to watch this season.

 

[j-man]

They are dishing out contract extensions left and right this offseason. Are we stuck with a bad team for the next few seasons?

i know this is the pefect spot for u to to see if guys fit mayo system u have signed too many players to ex for the type of talent u have the only one i agree with was the G/T guy

 

[Toe Nash]

4-6 wins seems reasonable. It is hard for any team to win fewer than 4 and I think the defense will produce more turnovers than last year when they got unlucky there. But it's not a good roster. The QB play is an unknown, the offense has no matchup problems at the skill positions and a below average at best line. The defense is probably good and the kicking has to be better, but the way they win any games is going to be turnovers generating a short field and improved red zone offense, not any kind of big plays to move down the field. So not very sustainable.

 

[BusRaker]

The line is a real problem right now, I would be worried putting a rookie QB behind it.

Yeah but not as scared as putting Aaron Rodgers behind. It seems like Drake Josh Allen Maye can take a hit without shattering

 

[dynomite]

Yeah but not as scared as putting Aaron Rodgers behind. It seems like Drake Josh Allen Maye can take a hit without shattering

Probably belongs in the Maye thread, but a semi-worst case scenario here might be Joe Burrow getting wrecked for half a season then tearing his ACL behind a dreadful Bengals o-line in 2020.

It obviously didn't seem to hurt his development (yes, he made the Super Bowl the next year), but I'd note Burrow was 24 in his rookie season and coming off a Heisman and a National Championship while playing in the SEC. Maye was mostly playing lower level competition in the ACC, will only be 22 this season, and as noted many places is rebuilding his footwork while calling plays in a huddle and playing under center for the first time.

PS Love the profile picture of Vinateri chasing down Herschel Walker!

4-6 wins seems reasonable. It is hard for any team to win fewer than 4 and I think the defense will produce more turnovers than last year when they got unlucky there. But it's not a good roster. The QB play is an unknown, the offense has no matchup problems at the skill positions and a below average at best line. The defense is probably good and the kicking has to be better, but the way they win any games is going to be turnovers generating a short field and improved red zone offense, not any kind of big plays to move down the field. So not very sustainable.

This is the most likely result, I agree. The Pats are devoid of talent across the roster. And I continue to think the 2023 Patriots defense, despite the terrible injury luck, got incredibly fortunate to face so many horrible QBs (Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubisky, Brian Hoyer, Trevor Semien, the Weekend at Bernie's version of Russell Wilson, etc.)

Something like 5-12 would be fine by me, especially if they start 2-8 with Brissett and finish 3-4 with Maye or something with the kid having a couple 300+ yard barnburners (2 of their last 4 games are against the Chargers & Cardinals, who will likely both have beatable defensive units this year). Would give us excitement for Maye's future going into 2025, and allow the Pats to pick early in every round in the Draft again next year and stockpile young, cheap talent with which to get back to being a genuine contender. Best case, they even snag a top ~5 pick again and this time trade back to the middle of the 1st round, pick up some extra draft capital, and take a stud Tackle.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Vegas lines for the Patriots to NOT make the playoffs is -2000. By far, the biggest odds.

Next two teams are the Broncos at -1000 and Panthers at -800.

Vegas thinks the Patriots are the worst team. By far.

I think this team can win 7-8 games with a healthy defense, JB bringing some mediocre QB play, and an offense that should be much more functional. Tough division, tough schedule, new HC — but I am excited to watch this season.

Is the hope for a “much more functional” offense simply based on improved QB play? Or are you assuming AVP is a noticeable upgrade on BOB and the OL/WR rookies will be quality players from the get go?

Better QB play will help (perhaps offset to some degree by a tougher slate of opposing defenses) but Brissett is still a below average starter and Maye is likely (?) to struggle quite a bit early on. The line and WR groups are bottom 5 in the NFL on paper heading into camp.

Absent a rookie revelation or 3, the offense should go from putrid to merely run of the mill bad. I don’t see too many realistic paths to competent or average on offense unless Maye has a Stroud-esque rookie season

 

[RG33]

Is the hope for a “much more functional” offense simply based on improved QB play? Or are you assuming AVP is a noticeable upgrade on BOB and the OL/WR rookies will be quality players from the get go?

Better QB play will help (perhaps offset to some degree by a tougher slate of opposing defenses) but Brissett is still a below average starter and Maye is likely (?) to struggle quite a bit early on. The line and WR groups are bottom 5 in the NFL on paper heading into camp.

Absent a rookie revelation or 3, the offense should go from putrid to merely run of the mill bad. I don’t see too many realistic paths to competent or average on offense unless Maye has a Stroud-esque rookie season

I think that Jacoby will be a fairly significant upgrade on Mac Jones, despite being an average-at-best type NFL QB. I also think the WR room will look very different — week 10 last year had JuJu, Demario, and Kayshon Boutte starting. They should be more competitive this year with Bourne / Douglas / Polk / Baker / Osborne / ???

It will come down to how the OL shapes up — and that is probably going to be a challenge, but I just can’t see how this team can be worse on offense than they were last year with Mac and Bailey at QB.

 

[Van Everyman]

I think the question I would ask the OP is – “If the Pats are the worst team in 2024, would that embarrass you?”

I’ve watched a lot of Red Sox fans over the years start foaming at the mouth at the idea of the team finishing in *last place* – as if it’s some great shame and humiliation to be avoided at all costs.

We’ve been hearing people complain for YEARS about the supposed lack of talent anywhere on this roster. I sort of disagree and think dysfunction was as much to blame but regardless, losing for a few years gives Wolf multiple bites at the apple to replenish the talent base of the team and doesn’t mean every pick in 2024 has to pan out.

Given the brutal schedule, I actually think it takes the pressure off – if they do well, people will credit the first year coach and GM for beating the odds. If not, no one should’ve expected much during a rebuilding year anyway. Win win.

Regardless, like the Red Sox these past few years, I will be happy to see the new direction they go in and who emerges.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I think the question I would ask the OP is – “If the Pats are the worst team in 2024, would that embarrass you?”

I’ve watched a lot of Red Sox fans over the years start foaming at the mouth at the idea of the team finishing in *last place* – as if it’s some great shame and humiliation to be avoided at all costs.

We’ve been hearing people complain for YEARS about the supposed lack of talent anywhere on this roster. I sort of disagree and think dysfunction was as much to blame but regardless, losing for a few years gives Wolf multiple bites at the apple to replenish the talent base of the team and doesn’t mean every pick in 2024 has to pan out.

Given the brutal schedule, I actually think it takes the pressure off – if they do well, people will credit the first year coach and GM for beating the odds. If not, no one should’ve expected much during a rebuilding year anyway. Win win.

Regardless, like the Red Sox these past few years, I will be happy to see the new direction they go in and who emerges.

I wouldn't be "embarrassed" by the Pats being the worst team because my self-esteem is in no way tied to the success of the sports teams I root for. I'd actually rather that they finish last, where they can pick up a franchise LT (or God forbid, take a shot at another top QB), than land somewhere in the middle (unless it's apparent that finishing in the middle is a step toward much better days, i.e., because this year's draft class, and especially Maye, turns out to be a big success their freshman year).

 

[mauf]

MGM is offering +155 for over 5.5 wins but just -160 for over 4.5 wins. So 5-12 seems to be the conventional wisdom. Forced to choose, I’d take the over — the defense should be good, and the upgrade from Mac to literally anyone else is significant. But 5-12 seems about right.