Are Bailey and Breslow Pitcher-Whisperers?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Let me start off announcing my ignorance on this…. I’m hoping to get some discussion from the other posters here that know more about this stuff than me.
There does seem to be just an assumption that they’ve unlocked some magic formula- and Houck is often thrown out there.
But as good as his improvement from pre-24 to ‘24 was…. It never struck me as anything crazy ily outside a possible standard development for a good pitcher, which Houck had shown himself to be in flashes.
Crawford had a great first two months. That was it. One could argue his season was a step backwards. The same could be said for Bello…. Who was the opposite of Crawford- just a horrible first half- very good second half. But Bello “bought in” to the program- lay off your fastball early on and it was only when he trashed that approach and went back to a fastball dominant scheme that he got unstuck.
Giolito- never injured horse suddenly gets injured.
Pivetta had a rare injury but mostly didn’t reveal his potential like a bunch of us thought Bailey would help uncover.
im just not sure I see it. Their one clear big success story- Houck- can easily be seen as just standard development.
There’s some “oh he needs more time…” arguments, but that seems to be a retrofit argument after their magic on Crawford started wearing off.
The big bullpen additions were trash. In fact the entire bullpen itself with a few exceptions (that again, I have a hard time seeing those successes as proof or refutations) was pretty awful.
I’m pretty skeptical

 

[pjheff]

Let me start off announcing my ignorance on this….I’m pretty skeptical

The alpha to the omega

 

[8slim]

Bailey may be an above average pitching coach. Maybe an excellent one. I don’t know enough to say.

No one has magical pitcher improvement powers, though.

 

[TheDogMan]

Bailey may be an above average pitching coach. Maybe an excellent one. I don’t know enough to say.

No one has magical pitcher improvement powers, though.

Tampa seems to have figured something out.

 

[jon abbey]

Tampa seems to have figured something out.

Yeah how to break guys.

 

[burstnbloom]

Let me start off announcing my ignorance on this…. I’m hoping to get some discussion from the other posters here that know more about this stuff than me.
There does seem to be just an assumption that they’ve unlocked some magic formula- and Houck is often thrown out there.
But as good as his improvement from pre-24 to ‘24 was…. It never struck me as anything crazy ily outside a possible standard development for a good pitcher, which Houck had shown himself to be in flashes.
Crawford had a great first two months. That was it. One could argue his season was a step backwards. The same could be said for Bello…. Who was the opposite of Crawford- just a horrible first half- very good second half. But Bello “bought in” to the program- lay off your fastball early on and it was only when he trashed that approach and went back to a fastball dominant scheme that he got unstuck.
Giolito- never injured horse suddenly gets injured.
Pivetta had a rare injury but mostly didn’t reveal his potential like a bunch of us thought Bailey would help uncover.
im just not sure I see it. Their one clear big success story- Houck- can easily be seen as just standard development.
There’s some “oh he needs more time…” arguments, but that seems to be a retrofit argument after their magic on Crawford started wearing off.
The big bullpen additions were trash. In fact the entire bullpen itself with a few exceptions (that again, I have a hard time seeing those successes as proof or refutations) was pretty awful.
I’m pretty skeptical

Why?

Bailey has a significant track record as a MLB pitching coach before he came here, Breslow oversaw a revamping of the cubs minor league pitching development that showed quantifiable leaps in the performance of their developing minor leaguers, and Kyle Boddy from Driveline has done pitch design for 40 MLB all stars. Why would you be skeptical of those three guys just because they are here now?

I also think your descriptions of these players seasons are incorrect. I could go through all of them, but I'll just address the first player you mentioned. Houck's season was a massive success for the new pitching lab. I've included his pitching value and movement profiles year over year from savant below to illustrate. His overall pitching run value massively improved year over year. They changed the extension on his release and the entire movement profile and deployment of his arsenal. They scrapped the cutter and four seam, reshaped his slider into a sweeper with more drop and more movement, added velocity and drop to his split, and changed the drop on his sinker. This isn't normal pitcher development, it's a remake of a pitchers entire profile. I don't see how you can look at this player's results and changes to his arsenal, coupled with the known philosophies of the pitching development people involved, and say you are skeptical they had any effect.

 

[sezwho]

Yeah how to break guys.

Well at least we successfully stole that from them.

 

[grimshaw]

I am not seeing the contingent as any kind of whisperers' after year one but the TBD's/incompletes are the keys for year 2. Most of Breslow signings and trades have been not great to poor,

His clear win so far was Slaten
His modest wins so far were Criswell, Booser, and Fitts
Then you've got a mish-mash of impactless moves like Uwasawa, Shugart, Campbell, bringing back Rich Hill, Joely Rodriguez and James Paxton
Below that are losses like Wingenter, Keller, and Bailey Horn
Then you have the chose the wrong bulk guy category with Chase Anderson.
And then the careless whispering category which probably lost them a few games with Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims.

His biggest accomplishment to date is moving Houck up to all-star status which probably counteracts all the bad. Most of the non-Houck's regressed slightly but not enough to point to anything in particular.

TL/DR it's been a mixed bag. He's had more misses than hits, but they haven't moved the needle much. His injured and still developing pitchers will tell us way more this season. Giolito returning to earlier form, Quinn Priester being a contributor, and the injured relievers acquired last season being good will tell a lot more of the story. To me, Quinn Priester is the most significant move he has made to potentially improve the team long term as his value sky rockets if he has a decent season.

 

[simplicio]

TBD, really.

You touch on the injury issue and I think that's a real concern. We saw Giolito, Whitlock, Murphy, Bello, Pivetta, Campbell, Garcia and Sims all go down fairly early on in their exposure to the Bailey program. Are they trying to shift people to a new routine too rapidly or something? Ramping up velocity too much? Particular for deadline moves that's an ill omen.

I also think there was an element of first impressions at work, when our ragtag band of pitchers shockingly looked like the best staff in baseball for the first month before hitters started making adjustments to their pitch usage.

But big picture, I'd say they've earned some good will. I believe just about everyone here thought they were a starter short last year even before Giolito went down. Houck and Crawford and Whitlock came with major usage concerns. After Murphy bit it, our only usable starting depth in the minors was some negative WAR reliever Tampa DFAed. By the second half of April we were down to two members of our opening day rotation pitching in front of the leakiest infield in baseball, in the second best hitter's park. But the pitching was still really good somehow.

But we were definitely short on depth, particularly high lev bullpen guys, and losing 2/3 of them a week apart killed the season. There was lot of shifting through trash that happened, and while that uncovered Slaten, Criswell, Booser, Kelly, Weissert etc, we also had some short-lived stinkers slip through and worse, guys like Horn and Keller spending a bunch of time sitting on the roster unplayably (or worse, playing) and increasing the stress on the rest of the pen.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/tjstats/status/1870959729079628124?s=46


Priester taking a huge step forward in a Sox uniform would go a long way in this discussion.

 

[Fishy1]

View: https://twitter.com/tjstats/status/1870959729079628124?s=46


Priester taking a huge step forward in a Sox uniform would go a long way in this discussion.

I could see any of him and Fitts breaking out. Guerrero and Penrod too, but I'm way more concerned about their control issues.

 

[curly2]

View: https://twitter.com/tjstats/status/1870959729079628124?s=46


Priester taking a huge step forward in a Sox uniform would go a long way in this discussion.

That and figuring out a way to cut down Crawford homers allowed.

 

[RachelCole]

Why?

Bailey has a significant track record as a MLB pitching coach before he came here, Breslow oversaw a revamping of the cubs minor league pitching development that showed quantifiable leaps in the performance of their developing minor leaguers, and Kyle Boddy from Driveline has done pitch design for 40 MLB all stars. Why would you be skeptical of those three guys just because they are here now?

I also think your descriptions of these players seasons are incorrect. I could go through all of them, but I'll just address the first player you mentioned. Houck's season was a massive success for the new pitching lab. I've included his pitching value and movement profiles year over year from savant below to illustrate. His overall pitching run value massively improved year over year. They changed the extension on his release and the entire movement profile and deployment of his arsenal. They scrapped the cutter and four seam, reshaped his slider into a sweeper with more drop and more movement, added velocity and drop to his split, and changed the drop on his sinker. This isn't normal pitcher development, it's a remake of a pitchers entire profile. I don't see how you can look at this player's results and changes to his arsenal, coupled with the known philosophies of the pitching development people involved, and say you are skeptical they had any effect.


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It’s fair to be skeptical, especially when a lot of the “magic formula” narratives rely on small sample sizes or subjective interpretations. Houck’s development is impressive but could be chalked up to natural progression. Bello’s turnaround after reverting to fastball dominance seems to counter the supposed system, and Crawford’s decline reinforces that inconsistency. With bullpen struggles and mixed results, the “program” doesn’t yet scream revolution—it might need more time or adjustment. As a medical student, I often get overwhelmed by the workload, especially when it comes to writing detailed essays. I decided to try https://ukwritemyessay.com/ for help with an assignment on healthcare ethics. The essay I received was excellent, with accurate information and proper references. The writer clearly had expertise in the subject. This service really helped me manage my time better and focus on other important tasks.

It's a valid point, development reflects natural trends in progression.