Any cure for the big Alment (ailment)? The Al Horford Thread.

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Seems he deserves his own thread that isn't part of the Kemba trade.

First 25 games: 29.8 minutes, .457/.310/.857 12.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 1.0 TO, 2.2 PF 9.9 FGA
Last 17 games: 26.7 minutes, .385/.259/.818 6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.3 steals, 0.9 TO, 1.8 PF 7.2 FGA


The splits basically line up perfectly with his return from covid protocols. It's popular to blame Ime for Al breaking down but it could just as easily be age or the Covid layoff. If there's good news, he did have a good 3 game stretch in the middle of those 17 games, but he was brutal the 9 games before that and the 5 games after.

Meanwhile
TL's first 23 games: 27.8 minutes, .734/----/.619, 9.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.2 TO, 1.8 PF, 5.6 FGA
TL's last 17 games: 32.2 minutes, .731/.000/.880, 10.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.2 TO, 2.5 PF 6.4 FGA
TL's per 36 his 2nd and 3 year combined: 36.0 minutes, .723/.000/.626, 14.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 3.3 blocks, 1.7 steals, 1.9 TO, 4.1 PF

The solution seems an obvious one. Ditch the 2 big lineup except in rare spots. Play TL 30 minutes, play AL 18-20. The C's have an emerging 24 year old center coming into his own and improving as the season goes along and they have an aging 35 year old center who has looked like ass for a good chunk of the season. This allows the C's to have one of TL or AL in the game at all times which would help defensively and with ball movement. And with the reduce in minutes and playing against back ups, hopefully Al would see his production go up in the minutes he does play.

Al was one of the few positive notes of the season in the early going and his early season success is still masking some of his dreadful play of late. Al's Game Log.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Seems he deserves his own thread that isn't part of the Kemba trade.

First 25 games: 29.8 minutes, .457/.310/.857 12.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 1.0 TO, 2.2 PF 9.9 FGA
Last 17 games: 26.7 minutes, .385/.259/.818 6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.3 steals, 0.9 TO, 1.8 PF 7.2 FGA


The splits basically line up perfectly with his return from covid protocols. It's popular to blame Ime for Al breaking down but it could just as easily be age or the Covid layoff. If there's good news, he did have a good 3 game stretch in the middle of those 17 games, but he was brutal the 9 games before that and the 5 games after.

Meanwhile
TL's first 23 games: 27.8 minutes, .734/----/.619, 9.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.2 TO, 1.8 PF, 5.6 FGA
TL's last 17 games: 32.2 minutes, .731/.000/.880, 10.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.2 TO, 2.5 PF 6.4 FGA
TL's per 36 his 2nd and 3 year combined: 36.0 minutes, .723/.000/.626, 14.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 3.3 blocks, 1.7 steals, 1.9 TO, 4.1 PF

The solution seems an obvious one. Ditch the 2 big lineup except in rare spots. Play TL 30 minutes, play AL 18-20. The C's have an emerging 24 year old center coming into his own and improving as the season goes along and they have an aging 35 year old center who has looked like ass for a good chunk of the season. This allows the C's to have one of TL or AL in the game at all times which would help defensively and with ball movement. And with the reduce in minutes and playing against back ups, hopefully Al would see his production go up in the minutes he does play.

Al was one of the few positive notes of the season in the early going and his early season success is still masking some of his dreadful play of late. Al's Game Log.
TL is already playing 30 mpg. Basically you're saying that the Cs should cut Al's minutes from 26.7 (his average over the last 17 games) or 25 mpg (his average over the last 5, but that is skewed by the 16 mpg he played against ATL on the first night of back-to-back) to 18 mpg.

While I can see that argument, given that Ime isn't really interested in Freedom, GW is going to have to increase his minutes to offset. It would be interesting to see what the Cs have in terms of statistics when comparing Al's minutes versus GW's minutes. I still think Al gives more on defense and with passing even if GW shoots better.

Want to mention (SSS Alert!) that over last 4 games, Al is 4-9 from 3P, including at least one ATB 3P that I can remember. Maybe he can start getting back to career averages, particularly on ATB 3P%.
 

mcpickl

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TL is already playing 30 mpg. Basically you're saying that the Cs should cut Al's minutes from 26.7 (his average over the last 17 games) or 25 mpg (his average over the last 5, but that is skewed by the 16 mpg he played against ATL on the first night of back-to-back) to 18 mpg.

While I can see that argument, given that Ime isn't really interested in Freedom, GW is going to have to increase his minutes to offset. It would be interesting to see what the Cs have in terms of statistics when comparing Al's minutes versus GW's minutes. I still think Al gives more on defense and with passing even if GW shoots better.

Want to mention (SSS Alert!) that over last 4 games, Al is 4-9 from 3P, including at least one ATB 3P that I can remember. Maybe he can start getting back to career averages, particularly on ATB 3P%.
What stats are you looking for?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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What stats are you looking for?
Without the 2 big lineup, Al's minutes wouldn't have to go to GW or Freedom anyway. The minutes at the 5 would be covered by Al and TL. The team could cut Al's play by 8-10 minutes and redistribute them anywhere they wanted.

I doubt all those minutes would go to one player, but rather a bunch of players with the majority going to Grant and Richardson.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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What stats are you looking for?
Basically a deeper dive into how lineups with GW compares with lineups with Al. I assume there's a match-up component that people who get paid to look at things can compile.

My problem with playing Al fewer minutes is that BOS is pretty small with TL and wings in the lineup. I mean the Cs had Romeo trying to guard Gallinari in the ATL game as Al only played 16 minutes in that game. There are some matchups where that will work better but against teams with size, the Cs either have to play Al or GW but I still think Al is better on defense than GW is.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Seems he deserves his own thread that isn't part of the Kemba trade.

First 25 games: 29.8 minutes, .457/.310/.857 12.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 1.0 TO, 2.2 PF 9.9 FGA
Last 17 games: 26.7 minutes, .385/.259/.818 6.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 blocks, 0.3 steals, 0.9 TO, 1.8 PF 7.2 FGA


The splits basically line up perfectly with his return from covid protocols. It's popular to blame Ime for Al breaking down but it could just as easily be age or the Covid layoff. If there's good news, he did have a good 3 game stretch in the middle of those 17 games, but he was brutal the 9 games before that and the 5 games after.

Meanwhile
TL's first 23 games: 27.8 minutes, .734/----/.619, 9.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.7 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.2 TO, 1.8 PF, 5.6 FGA
TL's last 17 games: 32.2 minutes, .731/.000/.880, 10.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 steals, 1.2 TO, 2.5 PF 6.4 FGA
TL's per 36 his 2nd and 3 year combined: 36.0 minutes, .723/.000/.626, 14.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 3.3 blocks, 1.7 steals, 1.9 TO, 4.1 PF

The solution seems an obvious one. Ditch the 2 big lineup except in rare spots. Play TL 30 minutes, play AL 18-20. The C's have an emerging 24 year old center coming into his own and improving as the season goes along and they have an aging 35 year old center who has looked like ass for a good chunk of the season. This allows the C's to have one of TL or AL in the game at all times which would help defensively and with ball movement. And with the reduce in minutes and playing against back ups, hopefully Al would see his production go up in the minutes he does play.

Al was one of the few positive notes of the season in the early going and his early season success is still masking some of his dreadful play of late. Al's Game Log.
Nice work, it's even starker if you look at Al's first 20 games vs his last 22, a Tale of Two Al's.

I've been looking at this a bunch recently since excessive minutes by our 35yr Center was a concern to start the season.
It really hasn't been the best of times, and more like the worst of times...

I watched the Pels game this morning and Horford's defense was meh. Got beat numerous times guarding Alvardo. IME has been adjusting Al's minutes except for the 35min/Wiz head-scratcher

IME seems married to 2BIGZzz, so doubt he'll change it, just wish he used it less.
PLUS if IME feels its so effective, why doesn't he use it in Q4 when this team struggles? Seems odd
 
Last edited:

NomarsFool

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I don't know what happened, but Al can't hit the 3 anymore with consistency. Teams leave him alone and let him hit take wide open (or nearly wide open) 3s all day long and he can only hit them at like a 30% clip. That's not good enough.

I'd rather see a little bit more Grant Williams and Josh Richardson, and rest up Al. I don't think he's a bad player, and early in the season he was looking great - especially on the defensive end. I just think he's getting run into the ground and the 2BIG lineup isn't ideal for this team, in my opinion.
 

billy ashley

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I agree with the initial analysis, but there is one issue that i think is missing.

The team 6 through 10 is garbage. Al, even while sucking on offense does enough defensively to makes the team worse during those 10 minutes he's off the floor.
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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I agree with the initial analysis, but there is one issue that i think is missing.

The team 6 through 10 is garbage. Al, even while sucking on offense does enough defensively to makes the team worse during those 10 minutes he's off the floor.
On the contrary, I think part of the reason the team has been about .500 despite an awful offensive start from most of the roster is because this team is so good defensively and has so many competent guys coming off the bench. Horford has had a bad twenty games or so but defended really well in the first half. He still has good defensive possesions a lot of the time, and he knows where he needs to be. There's also Richardson, Grant Williams, and Langford, who are all NBA rotation players and will continue to be because they bring so much on defense. Dennis Schroder has been a starting quality point guard on multiple play-off bound teams. Josh Richardson too. Pritchard, the tenth man, played the sixth most minutes on last year's team and many are wondering if shipping out Schroder might be an opportunity to see what we have in him.

I think the reality is (1) this team has underperformed in late and close games and (2) the top talent isn't all that good right now. Tatum's great on both sides of the ball, but Brown is basically a scorer at this point. Horford has been about what I would have expected: solid and useful when fresh, hobbled when tired. That his three point shot has disappeared has sucked, but it hasn't hurt the team's performance nearly as much as Tatum's struggles from beyond the arc.

48973

Anyway, back to the issue at hand: I hope Al and Grant Williams flip minutes if only so we can get Al some rest and opportunity to get right. I see a late career Marc Gasol role as ideal for him. There are very few teams who can throw a big as good as Al at you for twenty minutes or so. If more minutes go to Richardson and Grant Williams, I think you get more value out of that then out of watching Al drag his bow-legged self up the court to brick an above-the-break three.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He's been playing a bit better since I made this thread.

7 games, 26.9 mpg, .469/.333/.800, 9.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 blocks.

Also shooting .344 from 3 over his last 19 games. 21/61. Crawling closer to .300.
 

Cesar Crespo

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First 41: 28.7 mpg, .433/.285/.851, 10.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, 0.6 steals, 1.0 TO
Last 18: 29.9 mpg, .510/.389/.842, 10.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 blocks, 0.9 steals, 0.9 TO
Last 11: 31.6 mpg, .549/.422/.889, 11.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.5 blocks, 1.1 steals, 0.9 TO

He wasn't bad the first 41, but he had a really rough stretch from Dec 7-1/29. He's been playing considerably better for the last 1 1/2 months and has been shooting better as well.

Though basically everyone on the C's has been playing well of late. Shooting is another matter.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think Al is mooting this whole conversation with his play of late.

Barring a deal for a star that probably won't be there, it's a no brainer to bring him back.

A lot of the Celtics defensive resurgence has been related to having Al guard the opposing center and freeing up Rob to help out at the rim. If Al goes, you either need to add a starting C who is compatible with Rob in the offensive zone or you need to play Rob as more of a traditional C.

I think Al is coming back and earning his $26.5 M next year. And maybe the C's find a way to extend him at lesser money either before next season or after it.
 

Auger34

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I think Al is mooting this whole conversation with his play of late.

Barring a deal for a star that probably won't be there, it's a no brainer to bring him back.

A lot of the Celtics defensive resurgence has been related to having Al guard the opposing center and freeing up Rob to help out at the rim. If Al goes, you either need to add a starting C who is compatible with Rob in the offensive zone or you need to play Rob as more of a traditional C.

I think Al is coming back and earning his $26.5 M next year. And maybe the C's find a way to extend him at lesser money either before next season or after it.
Im coming around to this line of thinking as well.

As good as Al has been, I’m just not sure Al and 2-3 1sts for John Collins is a good trade and that seems to be one of the likelier trades out there
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think Al is mooting this whole conversation with his play of late.

Barring a deal for a star that probably won't be there, it's a no brainer to bring him back.

A lot of the Celtics defensive resurgence has been related to having Al guard the opposing center and freeing up Rob to help out at the rim. If Al goes, you either need to add a starting C who is compatible with Rob in the offensive zone or you need to play Rob as more of a traditional C.

I think Al is coming back and earning his $26.5 M next year. And maybe the C's find a way to extend him at lesser money either before next season or after it.
I agree with this. In addition to Al having to guard the opposite center, his other defensive assignment is to be switched on to scorers and have to play enough defense so the Cs don't have to double every time. Not a lot of options out there who can handle all of these roles.
 

cardiacs

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I think I remember Anna Horford mentioning once that Al doesn't drink or party at all. That may contribute to a productive mid-to-upper 30's, a la Dwight Howard (without the 'tude). I hope he'd consider a discount to stay here as he does seem to like it here and it now seems like a legitimate chance to get a ring.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think I remember Anna Horford mentioning once that Al doesn't drink or party at all. That may contribute to a productive mid-to-upper 30's. I hope he'd consider a discount to stay here as he does seem to like it here and it now seems like a legitimate chance to get a ring.
I think that if they give him his $26.5M for next year (rather than playing any 'cut you in January' BS), and the team around him is a legit contender, then I think they could sell him on ending his career here, at a reasonable cap number.

If this use of Rob is something they want to do long-term, they also need to start scoping out a successor to Al.
 

Van Everyman

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I think Al is mooting this whole conversation with his play of late.

Barring a deal for a star that probably won't be there, it's a no brainer to bring him back.

A lot of the Celtics defensive resurgence has been related to having Al guard the opposing center and freeing up Rob to help out at the rim. If Al goes, you either need to add a starting C who is compatible with Rob in the offensive zone or you need to play Rob as more of a traditional C.

I think Al is coming back and earning his $26.5 M next year. And maybe the C's find a way to extend him at lesser money either before next season or after it.
Also, can we give POBOBS a bit of a shout out here?

I know we all thought it could be nice to have Al back for obvious reasons: he knew Brad's system, was defensively solid and could provide veteran leadership, despite the price tag. But I'm not sure any of us really calculated just how much the "addition by subtraction" factor played into this ... and how hard that is to finagle in today's NBA.

The sunk cost of Kemba wasn't just about dollars. It was also about his position on the team and how it was holding back not only the development of the Jays, Rob and Marcus ... but also the flow and play of the team. None of the stuff we are seeing right now could be happening with Kemba on the roster -- the defense would be playing 4.5 x 5 instead of switching. Marcus would be shooting instead of at the point and taking it inside. And Tatum and Brown most likely wouldn't be making leaps on how to be scorers who are also facilitators. As much as I like the guy personally, the whole approach would have to be different with Kemba. Just getting rid of him alone was huge.

Then you add in bringing in Al. Now instead of having ~$30M clogging the books, you have a guy who knows Brad's system (though Ime's is def. different) and the players here (he played with all the main guys but Rob). As noted, he has a valuable role on both sides of the ball (defensively very stout and switchable, a great facilitator and with the ability to shoot). All of which is to say: he doesn't need the ball to be valuable. On the intangibles side, in a year in which they were totally changing the system, he adds not only "veteran leadership," but an element of continuity and perspective. Is it $30M worth of value? Not in a traditional sense. But when you consider how much negative value Kemba was adding and the kind of positive value they desperately needed, this feels like a ~$50-60M turnaround ... maybe even more.

It's weird to say, and I can't exactly quantify it, but I don't think you often get that much value to a team for bringing in a superstar -- often because of the salary, chemistry issues, and assets you have to forgo to get them (prospects, moving money around, etc.). The Al move was ginormous.
 

Kliq

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I'm a little bit worried about Al getting worn down in the playoffs, depending on the matchups. He has historically had a way with handling Embiid that has been really impressive, but he is also perhaps our primary defender on Durant. It seems like the Celtics are relying on him a lot defensively, and while he has been up for the challenge in the regular season, I think a lot for this team is hinging on his health/spryness.
 

benhogan

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Also, can we give POBOBS a bit of a shout out here?

I know we all thought it could be nice to have Al back for obvious reasons: he knew Brad's system, was defensively solid and could provide veteran leadership, despite the price tag. But I'm not sure any of us really calculated just how much the "addition by subtraction" factor played into this ... and how hard that is to finagle in today's NBA.

The sunk cost of Kemba wasn't just about dollars. It was also about his position on the team and how it was holding back not only the development of the Jays, Rob and Marcus ... but also the flow and play of the team. None of the stuff we are seeing right now could be happening with Kemba on the roster -- the defense would be playing 4.5 x 5 instead of switching. Marcus would be shooting instead of at the point and taking it inside. And Tatum and Brown most likely wouldn't be making leaps on how to be scorers who are also facilitators. As much as I like the guy personally, the whole approach would have to be different with Kemba. Just getting rid of him alone was huge.

Then you add in bringing in Al. Now instead of having ~$30M clogging the books, you have a guy who knows Brad's system (though Ime's is def. different) and the players here (he played with all the main guys but Rob). As noted, he has a valuable role on both sides of the ball (defensively very stout and switchable, a great facilitator and with the ability to shoot). All of which is to say: he doesn't need the ball to be valuable. On the intangibles side, in a year in which they were totally changing the system, he adds not only "veteran leadership," but an element of continuity and perspective. Is it $30M worth of value? Not in a traditional sense. But when you consider how much negative value Kemba was adding and the kind of positive value they desperately needed, this feels like a ~$50-60M turnaround ... maybe even more.

It's weird to say, and I can't exactly quantify it, but I don't think you often get that much value to a team for bringing in a superstar -- often because of the salary, chemistry issues, and assets you have to forgo to get them (prospects, moving money around, etc.). The Al move was ginormous.
+1 Yep. Kemba for Horford was floated around here a lot last year. Brad knew what he was doing. It has worked out great.

Good point on the knock-on effects. Unloading Kemba was a HUGE step in changing the team's identity/style/results.

Having Kemba on the floor warped every other defenders' #s and why statistical metrics for individual defenders is so difficult to measure with a number

Adding Derrick White has been another excellent move, even with his shooting slump.

With the Celtics defense, they are in every game. If the Celtics don't turn the ball over they WIN. If they shoot well they BLOW OUT the opponent.
 

lovegtm

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At this point, is there any reason to think that Al will deteriorate next year, as opposed to being one of the highly drafted, physically elite guys who maintain decent physical performance into the age 35-37 years? Chris Paul, LeBron, etc? I get the impression that Al has a fairly quiet off-court life too, which probably helps physical maintenance.

He's been good throughout this entire contract, minus the fit issues with Embiid. Honestly, he is probably worth close to his contract right now.

I thought he'd be gone in summer or before the trade deadline, but if no top-30 guy comes available, it probably makes sense to upgrade another position using the big TPE, use Theis to avoid too much mileage on Al and TL, and just pay Al one more year. It would be significant tax, but the team is clearly a top-tier championship contender at this point.
 

Imbricus

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The Al move was ginormous.
I've said it on here multiple times: Brad's biggest move of the summer, for sure. It also helped cleaning out the Smurf collection. I'm excited to see next year, presumably with Begarin joining us. Not so much interested in Yam; I don't think he's as good.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think I remember Anna Horford mentioning once that Al doesn't drink or party at all. That may contribute to a productive mid-to-upper 30's, a la Dwight Howard (without the 'tude). I hope he'd consider a discount to stay here as he does seem to like it here and it now seems like a legitimate chance to get a ring.
I saw on a broadcast that Al's "cheat meal" is cereal and he's said one thing he learned in OKC was how to keep his body straight so can see him having a hopefully slower age-related decline.

Then you add in bringing in Al. Now instead of having ~$30M clogging the books, you have a guy who knows Brad's system (though Ime's is def. different) and the players here (he played with all the main guys but Rob).
Yes, we can give POBOBS a shout out! Amazing what happens when you turn a guy who is basically a neutral or even a negative asset (given his contract and his physical condition) and replace him with someone who is currently - just as an example - third on the team in WS. Apparently you can build a contender with a superstar, a star, and 6 other good to excellent players.

Just a nit - Al and TL were on the 2018-19 Cs together so they've played together in practice.
 

Euclis20

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I think I remember Anna Horford mentioning once that Al doesn't drink or party at all. That may contribute to a productive mid-to-upper 30's, a la Dwight Howard (without the 'tude). I hope he'd consider a discount to stay here as he does seem to like it here and it now seems like a legitimate chance to get a ring.
Horford is just 6 months younger than Howard (they were part of the same high school class), it's fair to say he's already a more productive player at basically the same age.
 

Kliq

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Centers tend to age in dog years; I'm taking it one year at a time with Al.
 

joe dokes

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Horford is just 6 months younger than Howard (they were part of the same high school class), it's fair to say he's already a more productive player at basically the same age.
It shouldn't, but that stuns me.
 

Euclis20

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It shouldn't, but that stuns me.
I know what you mean. Howard peaked really early - he was 3rd team all-NBA when Al was still in college, and he was 1st team in 08 (Al's rookie year). He was also done being an top player basically the minute he left Orlando (back in 2012) and it's been 8 years since his last all-star appearance. It feels like he comes from a completely different era than Horford, who is not nearly as good as Howard was but (at the same age) somehow has 3 all-star appearances since Howard was last voted in.
 

Cellar-Door

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I know what you mean. Howard peaked really early - he was 3rd team all-NBA when Al was still in college, and he was 1st team in 08 (Al's rookie year). He was also done being an top player basically the minute he left Orlando (back in 2012) and it's been 8 years since his last all-star appearance. It feels like he comes from a completely different era than Horford, who is not nearly as good as Howard was but (at the same age) somehow has 3 all-star appearances since Howard was last voted in.
one thing is that Al went to school, which not only means a late start it means less wear and tear. But also... I think the biggest thing is... Howard's strengths were all things that started to be devalued as he aged, and his weaknesses were all things that became bigger issues. Horford was in some ways the opposite.

Howard was a rim protector and a strength monster on the glass and at the rim on offense, who couldn't shoot, wasn;t much of a passer and wasn't great on the perimeter. After he left ORL he didn't fall off, he was still good at the same things... teams just shot a lot more 3s and forced switches more, and offenses looked for space.

Al on the other hand sometimes got pushed around, but he could shoot, he could move his feet, and he could pass. He was able to embrace the role of floor stretcher and offensive hub, and on D his ability to guard big wings like Giannis was invaluable.
 

benhogan

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At this point, is there any reason to think that Al will deteriorate next year, as opposed to being one of the highly drafted, physically elite guys who maintain decent physical performance into the age 35-37 years? Chris Paul, LeBron, etc? I get the impression that Al has a fairly quiet off-court life too, which probably helps physical maintenance.

He's been good throughout this entire contract, minus the fit issues with Embiid. Honestly, he is probably worth close to his contract right now.

I thought he'd be gone in summer or before the trade deadline, but if no top-30 guy comes available, it probably makes sense to upgrade another position using the big TPE, use Theis to avoid too much mileage on Al and TL, and just pay Al one more year. It would be significant tax, but the team is clearly a top-tier championship contender at this point.
No one really has complained about them avoiding the repeater by dumping salary the last few seasons, because we realized they weren't a contender. BUT they clearly are Championship material (if you believe 538) this season and beyond.

Time to bust out the TAX wallet next season, Steve/Wyc. Every decision should be based around surrounding the JAYs with the best supporting cast. If that's Al at $26.5MM, so be it. Time to cash in those rolling TPEs this summer and find ring chasers. Lots of roster spots to fill.
 

Jakarta

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At this point, is there any reason to think that Al will deteriorate next year, as opposed to being one of the highly drafted, physically elite guys who maintain decent physical performance into the age 35-37 years? Chris Paul, LeBron, etc? I get the impression that Al has a fairly quiet off-court life too, which probably helps physical maintenance.

He's been good throughout this entire contract, minus the fit issues with Embiid. Honestly, he is probably worth close to his contract right now.

I thought he'd be gone in summer or before the trade deadline, but if no top-30 guy comes available, it probably makes sense to upgrade another position using the big TPE, use Theis to avoid too much mileage on Al and TL, and just pay Al one more year. It would be significant tax, but the team is clearly a top-tier championship contender at this point.
Where can I find list of TPEs the Celtics have? All the articles I can find seem to be from before the trade deadline and I believe some were used and others created.
 

lexrageorge

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Where can I find list of TPEs the Celtics have? All the articles I can find seem to be from before the trade deadline and I believe some were used and others created.
Link here: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics//cap

Scroll down to the Exceptions table. The big one is the Fournier exception at $17.1M.

I agree that the tax circumstances next season will be very different from this season, and so I do anticipate Wyc giving a green light on crossing the threshold. However, receiving a player in a sign-and-trade would hard cap the team at the apron.
 

DGreenwood

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If you count Horford's entire salary for next year, I believe they are already over, or very close to, what the hard cap will be. So if they sign-and-trade this summer it probably would be in a salary matching situation and they would not be able to use the TPEs next year.

So I think they have two avenues this summer:
1. Look for a single sign-and-trade for a third star (or something close to it) and then survive the hard cap year. Basically, add one impact player.
2. Forget the sign-and -trade and look to improve the team through regular trades and trades that involve the TPEs.
 
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The Mort Report

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If Al was 30 he'd be the exact kind of guy they would be going after. The thing is, I don't even know if there is a guy out there that can compliment this team better than him. Every Big 3 had to have at least one star drastically change/reduce their usage. And anyone they bring in will have to fit in to what Boston does, its not like a situation where three guys are being brought together from three different teams and then build from the ground up. Sure there are players that fit that mold, they just also aren't the ones usually demanding trades. I believe having Al around for 2-3 more years is the best use of that salary with how the team can use it
 

Saints Rest

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I feel like the Kemba/Al trade was initially viewed as an addition by subtraction thing, with the hope that Al might be able to contribute somewhere between 2008 PJ Brown and 1986 Bill Walton. Instead we have gotten something akin to 2018-2019 Al Horford.
 

benhogan

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If Al was 30 he'd be the exact kind of guy they would be going after. The thing is, I don't even know if there is a guy out there that can compliment this team better than him. Every Big 3 had to have at least one star drastically change/reduce their usage. And anyone they bring in will have to fit in to what Boston does, its not like a situation where three guys are being brought together from three different teams and then build from the ground up. Sure there are players that fit that mold, they just also aren't the ones usually demanding trades. I believe having Al around for 2-3 more years is the best use of that salary with how the team can use it
Not as good as Al Horford, but a similar player that is younger/cheaper is Kyle Andersen. He's a FA this summer and has a history with IME/Hardy

A lot of Al's value is in the locker room, not sure they can replace that.
 

The Mort Report

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Not as good as Al Horford, but a similar player that is younger/cheaper is Kyle Andersen. He's a FA this summer and has a history with IME/Hardy

A lot of Al's value is in the locker room, not sure they can replace that.
Exactly. My hope would be Al could play at a level similar to this for another 2-3 years. I think that outside of someone like KAT, moving him for someone else is a downgrade to the team. Granted the Jays are younger, but as we've seen, most team's windows never last as long as they hope. Don't take that chance
 

benhogan

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Exactly. My hope would be Al could play at a level similar to this for another 2-3 years. I think that outside of someone like KAT, moving him for someone else is a downgrade to the team. Granted the Jays are younger, but as we've seen, most team's windows never last as long as they hope. Don't take that chance
I trust Brad/IME in regards to Al's value. if they can staple picks to him (by selling high) and secure a top 30-50 player I'd roll with that.

A lot of top NBA players are aging out as the JAYLords + role players approach their peak years
 

The Mort Report

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I trust Brad/IME in regards to Al's value. if they can staple picks to him (by selling high) and secure a top 30-50 player I'd roll with that.

A lot of top NBA players are aging out as the JAYLords + role players approach their peak years
Agreed, but here’s my issue. Say you trade Al for Beal, does that really make the team better? Yes the Cs are getting the best player in the deal(and giving up what I would imagine multiple 1st), but do you honestly think If you replaced Al with Beal this team would be better? While I agree with the “more talent is better,” I feel like the Cs are in a sweet spot of 2 stars and 4 above average starters
 

benhogan

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Agreed, but here’s my issue. Say you trade Al for Beal, does that really make the team better? Yes the Cs are getting the best player in the deal(and giving up what I would imagine multiple 1st), but do you honestly think If you replaced Al with Beal this team would be better? While I agree with the “more talent is better,” I feel like the Cs are in a sweet spot of 2 stars and 4 above average starters
agreed. I have zero interest in Bradley Beal and his salary

If you're not a PLUS defender you're not invited to New England

Beal is giving me Kemba vibes
 

The Mort Report

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agreed. I have zero interest in Bradley Beal and his salary

If you're not a PLUS defender you're not invited to New England

Beal is giving me Kemba vibes
Absolutely. I mean also, can they really get any better?! I say that in jest but at the same time, do you really want to mess with this team right now?
 

benhogan

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Absolutely. I mean also, can they really get any better?! I say that in jest but at the same time, do you really want to mess with this team right now?
I never like breaking up the band. Don't want to look ahead, and I'm enjoying this run BUT selling Horford high (w/picks) before Jan '23 could set them up for 2023, '24, '25 Championship runs. Tatum is the straw that stirs this drink.

Love me some Al but he's the 5th most important starter. He's playing well but he'll probably be a little worse next season while the rest of the main rotation will still be getting better.

Brad's got this, 100% confidence in him with his approach from the minute he punted Kemba. If he doesn't move Horford it will probably reflect on Al's importance to the team's chemistry more than his actual production.