Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

[DJnVa]

From twitter:

Fun Hypothetical that lands Davis in Boston without giving up Tatum, Smart or the MEM pick...What if:

BOS OUT: Horford, Brown, #14 & #22
BOS IN: Davis & E. Gordon

NO OUT: Davis
NO IN: Brown, Capela & #22

HOU OUT: Capela & Gordon
HOU IN: Horford & #14


My thoughts: I don't think that's enough for HOU or NOP.

 

[nighthob]

Yeah, from the Houston end Shumpert needs to be the other body, and that equalizes things for them, I think. The problem is New Orleans, that offer is competitive with the LA Pupu Platter of Suck, but they want to top it. But Tatum & Capela easily does, though. Maybe change #14 to Houston to 20 & 22 and send #14 to New Orleans? This is essentially what I outlined a couple of pages back.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I don't think NO has much interest in that deal, but if it were close I'd be willing to add the Memphis pick to get it done.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Here's an interesting article: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2840879-the-anthony-davis-trade-that-would-terrify-the-nba/

The article talks about a theoretical DEN trade. That's not why I'm posting it. It has some interesting numbers re: AD's ability to score without assistance.

Davis is an offensive wrecking ball who needs more help than many in the NBA recognize or acknowledge. He received assists on 61.8 percent of his two-point shots in 2018-19 and 100 percent of his three-point shots, converting just 34.7 percent of unassisted shots. ​

​

In 2017-18 (42 of 75 games with Cousins), inarguably Davis' most successful season, he was assisted on 70.1 percent of his two-point field goals, converting just 29.9 percent of those shots when unassisted.​

More in the article.

Imagine what he could do with Horford setting him up.

 

[RedOctober3829]

"At the very least, it sounds like Grousbeck is intent on Ainge and the Celtics' front office shooting their shot.
"I don’t have any interest in being mediocre for the next 10 or 15 years," Grousbeck added. "I’d rather go for it, hit the driver, off the fairway, I occasionally do that. Absolutely that Kyrie trade (with Cleveland in 2017) felt like the right thing to do and was the right thing to do.
"I completely share Danny’s outlook and support it, of looking at options that are aggressive and could lead to a championship. That’s the mindset."

Doesn't sound like a front office who is going to accept mediocrity or will sit on their hands.

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/wyc-grousbeck-insists-celtics-have-aggressive-mindset-offseason

 

[Devizier]

As for Ball, do you really mean "higher ceiling"? I guess he could have a really high ceiling if he could learn how to shoot but he'd have to completely re-work his mechanics and I don't know if he's shown any willingness to do that. Until that point, I would definitely say that he has a much lower ceiling than Ingram.

The argument for Ball's ceiling is grounded in the fact that he has a few outstanding skills and is competent enough in other areas that he could elevate his game to the next level. He is only turning 22 after all. The argument for Ingram over Ball is based on physical projection but now there are serious question marks even there.

I am honestly surprised that we haven't heard from other teams. I forget who but someone mentioned Portland and Denver. Not sure Denver has the horses, but Portland could dangle a package centered around McCollum. Maybe he's too old for New Orleans' taste.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I agree with the overall thought that it is either Tatum or Brown but not both. However it is also not a Chinese menu choice. First of all, salaries have to match as previously pointed out by many. If Smart has to be included because a sign and trade doesn't work, then that significantly changes the calculus. In addition, your menu option equates Memphis +14 with Tatum and Brown, and that is very far off from the actual value of those 2 groups.

Yeah, it was lazily structured but my main point is that I don’t think New Orleans gets Tatum/Brown or Tatum/Memphis. I could see Jaylen/Memphis or Tatum/#14. Or even Jaylen/Memphis/#14.

 

[cheech13]

The argument for Ball's ceiling is grounded in the fact that he has a few outstanding skills and is competent enough in other areas that he could elevate his game to the next level. He is only turning 22 after all. The argument for Ingram over Ball is based on physical projection but now there are serious question marks even there.

I am honestly surprised that we haven't heard from other teams. I forget who but someone mentioned Portland and Denver. Not sure Denver has the horses, but Portland could dangle a package centered around McCollum. Maybe he's too old for New Orleans' taste.

As a Blazers fan I'd have no problem with them offering McCollum, Collins and multiple first round picks. I don't think New Orleans would want a package built around a 27-year-old who's not quite an All-Star though. But to your larger point now that Golden State has been mortally wounded any above average team should be going all-in on Davis. The league is wide open next year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

From twitter:

Fun Hypothetical that lands Davis in Boston without giving up Tatum, Smart or the MEM pick...What if:

BOS OUT: Horford, Brown, #14 & #22
BOS IN: Davis & E. Gordon

NO OUT: Davis
NO IN: Brown, Capela & #22

HOU OUT: Capela & Gordon
HOU IN: Horford & #14


My thoughts: I don't think that's enough for HOU or NOP.

Yeah, it's only "fun" if you're a celtics fan

 

[RedOctober3829]

Brown or Tatum/Smart/Baynes/Williams works on the trade machine in a Davis trade. Add whatever picks are needed.

 

[lovegtm]

Brown or Tatum/Smart/Baynes/Williams works on the trade machine in a Davis trade. Add whatever picks are needed.

I don't think you can give up Marcus Smart if Kyrie is gone and you're trading for AD anyway. You need Smart to maximize championship equity on a Davis team. There are plenty of ways to do it now that Baynes has opted in.

 

[lovegtm]

I think Devizier had it right, the Lakers are going to have to include a Billy King like pick package in the post-LeBron range (say two picks and two swap rights in the 23-26 timeframe) in order to seal the deal. And I suspect that Klutch is pressuring them to do just that.

Agree with all of this. It even lines up well with Zion, because those picks will have a much clearer value as Zion is nearing the end of his rookie deal, so they also will have a ton of value as trade pieces then (assuming a Lakers implosion).

If LA offers that, I think Griffin has to take it. And if LA doesn't offer it, they need to start thinking about trading LeBron, because they've just wasted two years of the end of his prime.

 

[nighthob]

I don't think NO has much interest in that deal, but if it were close I'd be willing to add the Memphis pick to get it done.

What realistic option do they have? Given that this a one year rental and that Boston needs to rebuild after Tatum and the Memphis pick is way too high.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I don't think you can give up Marcus Smart if Kyrie is gone and you're trading for AD anyway. You need Smart to maximize championship equity on a Davis team. There are plenty of ways to do it now that Baynes has opted in.

Which ways? A sign and trade Rozier and or Morris? I'm not sure Morris or Rozier do much for New Orleans unless they think they can flip them to another team.

 

[the moops]

I would offer Brown, Memphis and Time Lord as our best option (along with whatever voodoo cap money we need....BUT NO MORE TALENT). Hell I might even throw in an unprotected 2022 or something.

I would never toss in an unprotected pick. In 2022, this team could be pretty bad if AD leaves, Tatum doesn't progress, and Horford is just old.

 

[lexrageorge]

I would never toss in an unprotected pick. In 2022, this team could be pretty bad if AD leaves, Tatum doesn't progress, and Horford is just old.

Indeed. With the new lottery rules, there is even greater risk to leave the pick unprotected. Ainge should hold his ground; Tatum really is a great asset to be giving up in a trade for a player with an uncertain desire to remain.

 

[lovegtm]

Which ways? A sign and trade Rozier and or Morris? I'm not sure Morris or Rozier do much for New Orleans unless they think they can flip them to another team.

Overpaid Theis+Baynes+Yabu gets you most or all of the way there. You probably have to then include the 20 or 22 pick as compensation for overpaying Theis. Same logic applies to Morris if his market is weak (looks like it will be), and he's even easier, since you can give him any amount, whereas Theis is limited by Early Bird. The basic compensation for taking on ~$15-20M of bad salary is pretty standardized right now, and it's low 1st rounders.

 

[sezwho]

 

[mikeot]

What realistic option do they have? Given that this a one year rental and that Boston needs to rebuild after Tatum and the Memphis pick is way too high.

Why I hate all of this. Fuck AD if he doesn't commit to beyond a year.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Overpaid Theis+Baynes+Yabu gets you most or all of the way there. You probably have to then include the 20 or 22 pick as compensation for overpaying Theis. Same logic applies to Morris if his market is weak (looks like it will be), and he's even easier, since you can give him any amount, whereas Theis is limited by Early Bird. The basic compensation for taking on ~$15-20M of bad salary is pretty standardized right now, and it's low 1st rounders.

That’s great and all and it does get there, but I have a hard time believing David Griffin would accept that over Smart. Smart is a better player than any of them.

 

[lovegtm]

That’s great and all and it does get there, but I have a hard time believing David Griffin would accept that over Smart. Smart is a better player than any of them.

Sure, and Smart's value and AD's ultimate price are entirely different discussions. You specifically asked which non-Smart/non-Rozier/non-Morris ways there were to match money now that Baynes had opted in. I was answering that question.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

That’s great and all and it does get there, but I have a hard time believing David Griffin would accept that over Smart. Smart is a better player than any of them.

Lets assume both clubs value Smart equally (I would still argue that his actual on-the-court value to the Celtics is higher than his "locker room culture" value to the Pelicans, especially if Irving is gone - and I am assuming that even with Smart, the Pelicans aren't going to contend for much beyond a bottom WC seed next season).

You can see Ainge walking away from a Tatum/Smart/picks deal for a one year rental of Davis - that is a lot of value to give up. That said, it would be surprising to see Griffin walk for a Celtics package that includes everything but Smart. Griffin's prize in this deal is likely a young star (or stars) to build around - not a very good three and D player.

On the other hand, maybe Griffin would take just a package of Tatum and Smart with no picks. Ainge might consider that but its still a pretty steep price given Smart's production and contract.

 

[lovegtm]

Lets assume both clubs value Smart equally (I would still argue that his actual on-the-court value to the Celtics is higher than his "locker room culture" value to the Pelicans, especially if Irving is gone - and I am assuming that even with Smart, the Pelicans aren't going to contend for much beyond a bottom WC seed next season).

You can see Ainge walking away from a Tatum/Smart/picks deal for a one year rental of Davis - that is a lot of value to give up. That said, it would be surprising to see Griffin walk for a Celtics package that includes everything but Smart. Griffin's prize in this deal is likely a young star (or stars) to build around - not a very good three and D player.

On the other hand, maybe Griffin would take just a package of Tatum and Smart with no picks. Ainge might consider that but its still a pretty steep price given Smart's production and contract.

Agree 100% with everything regarding Smart being a really expensive piece for Ainge to throw in.

The part I disagree with is his value to NO. If they make the playoffs in the WC in Zion's rookie year and Tatum's age 22 year that's ridiculous progress, and you 100% want the next 2 years of Smart's contract after that. If they don't make it, you get a lottery pick, and a shot at being the next OKC age/talent wise.

(To be clear, I'm not saying NO will be the next OKC. I'm saying if Griffin thinks they could be, Smart will be a sticking point).

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I think Ainge loves Smart so much he'd rather give up the Memphis pick than trade Marcus. And Smart is more likely to contribute to a world championship in 2020 or 21 than the Memphis pick.

 

[lovegtm]

I think Ainge loves Smart so much he'd rather give up the Memphis pick than trade Marcus. And Smart is more likely to contribute to a world championship in 2020 or 21 than the Memphis pick.

The issue with this is that the Memphis pick, depending on where it lands, could potentially be the centerpiece of acquiring the next disgruntled star. Or drafting a guy who has a promising rookie year and gets that kind of value.

 

[mcpickl]

I feel like writers always undersell the Celtics’ assets during these discussions.

Group 1
Tatum
Memphis

Group 2
Brown
#14

I would be shocked if New Orleans got more than 1 from each group.

I would have these assets in three tiers in this order

Group 1
Tatum

Group 2
Brown
Memphis

Group 3
#14

I'd consider making it 4 tiers and putting Brown a tier above the Memphis pick.

Already clear Jaylen is at a minimum a valuable role player. I'd say a really good scenario for the Memphis pick is you have to wait til 2021 to get it, and you hope you get a player as good as Jaylen. I think it's much more likely than not that pick ends up netting a player that's not as good as Jaylen. You get more cheap years of control, but wouldn't be worth the risk for me of that control being for a worse player.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I would have these assets in three tiers in this order

Group 1
Tatum

Group 2
Brown
Memphis

Group 3
#14

I'd consider making it 4 tiers and putting Brown a tier above the Memphis pick.

Already clear Jaylen is at a minimum a valuable role player. I'd say a really good scenario for the Memphis pick is you have to wait til 2021 to get it, and you hope you get a player as good as Jaylen. I think it's much more likely than not that pick ends up netting a player that's not as good as Jaylen. You get more cheap years of control, but wouldn't be worth the risk for me of that control being for a worse player.

Yup. This is a more accurate grouping. Tatum is in a league of his own. Brown and Memphis are comparable and priority depends on how teams value them. Brown is a known quantity and still has upside but he gets really expensive soon. Memphis is a lottery ticket with significant upside but also a lower floor than Jaylen. #14 is a Kuzma type asset if you’re lucky.

 

[Brand Name]

Trade proper info and so forth is being made its own thread, thanks. New threads are good!

Not this news though, but I digress.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Whatever. Hayward injury made things tough. Get healthy and put a fun basketball team on the court again.