Angst von Buchholz

NDame616

will bailey
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
2,342
judyb said:
I think if the Cardinals or any other team felt that way about acquiring Peavy, he would already be gone, whether the Red Sox have given up on 2014 or not.
 
Not necessarily. Maybe the Sox know his market will improve the last few days in July, or think he an be a waiver wire deal in August, or right now they are asking too much and will lower the asking price in 2 weeks.
 
Just because he hasn't been traded YET, doesn't mean he won't be. The fact he's sporting a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts won't hurt his cause, either
 

HriniakPosterChild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 6, 2006
14,841
500 feet above Lake Sammammish
I was at the M's game and saw only highlights of Clay's game. But he seemed to be missing the target on most of his K's even though the pitches wound up in the strike zone.

Also, let's keep in mind exactly who he dismantled. The Houston offense is neck and neck with ours for worst in the league: 1st in strikeouts, 14th in runs scored, last in average, 14th in OBP (for a change, it's Seattle with the dubious distinction of being worse than the Astros in this one).

Can we wait until he dominates a good offense before we dismiss the Angst?
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,882
Henderson, NV
So what now?  The guy is too inconsistent to be counted on regularly, yet you really can't trade him because you won't get much in return.
 
The guy is the Sox' Josh Johnson.  Talented, inconsistent, shows flashes of brilliance, can't stay healthy.
 
He's an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.
 

SoxLegacy

New Member
Oct 30, 2008
629
Maryland
I think his performance over this season and his overall track record of being unreliable makes it even more imperative that the Sox sign Lester. As talented as Clay is, he is never going to be more than a question mark. My 10 year old groans whenever he sees Buchholz is due to pitch and I understand completely.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2006
11,636
The Coney Island of my mind
DanoooME said:
So what now?  The guy is too inconsistent to be counted on regularly, yet you really can't trade him because you won't get much in return.
 
The guy is the Sox' Josh Johnson.  Talented, inconsistent, shows flashes of brilliance, can't stay healthy.
 
He's an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.
Variability aside, he's the definition of Average:  836.1 major league innings with a xFIP- of 99.  I suppose you just keep running him out there every fifth day through 2015 unless we have five guys that can do better.  
 

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2009
19,363
He's only making $12 million next season. I think you keep him, hope for the best, and send him on his way at next season's end. 
 

Toe Nash

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
5,623
02130
Plympton91 said:
That was a season changing performance by Buchholz today. If I'm Cherington that was the sign I would have been looking for to be putting the trades on hold for the next two weeks. Except perhaps Peavy, for whom a trade would probably actually improve the 2014 team.

This pitching staff can support a 10 game winning streak if they get any run support at all, and that appears to be improving ever so little.
Quoting for awesomeness.
 
Concerningly, the walks seem to have returned. In his first 5 starts after his DL stint, there were some bumps, but he had a very encouraging 1:26 BB:K ratio in 35 IP. In his last two starts he has 5 K and 8 BB (and 3 HBP). 
 
What a frustrating player. He will be 30 and be owed $12m next season and I'm not sure I want him out there if he's not lights-out the rest of this year.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,759
where I was last at
I'm loving the possibility of Clay and Felix as the veterans R/L of this staff heading into next year. These guys just need more responsibility and visibility to shine. Awesome Plan A. 
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,275
MakMan44 said:
He's only making $12 million next season. I think you keep him, hope for the best, and send him on his way at next season's end. 
Ideally you slot him in as a 4 or 5 to where you aren't relying on him to be one of the leaders of your staff while providing AAA protection against meltdown or injury as you normally would with your 4/5 starters anyway in most cases. To count on him as one of your top 3 is failing to plan properly imo.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,513
Part of me wants to see him get one more year. Pedro said this was the effects of him putting everything out there for the playoffs last year (aka Foulke) and he's still coming back.
 

Toe Nash

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
5,623
02130
 

HomeRunBaker said:
Ideally you slot him in as a 4 or 5 to where you aren't relying on him to be one of the leaders of your staff while providing AAA protection against meltdown or injury as you normally would with your 4/5 starters anyway in most cases. To count on him as one of your top 3 is failing to plan properly imo.
They're going to have prospect depth unless Lackey and Lester go and they don't sign anyone. The fear is that they won't use it because as long as Buchholz is "healthy" he'll get starts. That's what happened this year -- he had ten starts where he said he was healthy before they admitted that he should go on the DL (and RDLR and Workman came in and were an improvement).

 
It doesn't really matter what # starter they call him. If they want to compete next year and he's not completely 100% (and shows something down the stretch this year) it's a big risk.
 

czar

fanboy
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
4,315
Ann Arbor
Not sure how to construe this, but one positive -- since Buchholz returned after his injury, he has put up a 10+% SwStr% in all games save for last week's Toronto start. SwStr% is the per-pitch metric most closely correlated to K% and therefore ERA predictors like FIP and SIERA. It's a very positive sign that his stuff which was so obviously flat early in the season is much improved.
 
The sudden return of BB and HBP-itis the last few starts is somewhat concerning and sent his xFIP up a bit after it had plummeted over the prior 5-6 starts. But I actually trust the team and Buchholz now when they say he's "healthy" as opposed to earlier this season when it was clear his arm wasn't 100%.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,275
Toe Nash said:
 

They're going to have prospect depth unless Lackey and Lester go and they don't sign anyone. The fear is that they won't use it because as long as Buchholz is "healthy" he'll get starts. That's what happened this year -- he had ten starts where he said he was healthy before they admitted that he should go on the DL (and RDLR and Workman came in and were an improvement).
 
It doesn't really matter what # starter they call him. If they want to compete next year and he's not completely 100% (and shows something down the stretch this year) it's a big risk.
Well it's much more than simply calling him a number. Each "slot" carries a certain amount of risk......the Sox slotting him #4 (or 5) means the 1, 2 and 3 are projected to be better/more reliable which carries much greater risk than projecting Buchholz as one of your top 3 and not acquiring anyone better/more reliable.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
14,293
czar said:
Not sure how to construe this, but one positive -- since Buchholz returned after his injury, he has put up a 10+% SwStr% in all games save for last week's Toronto start. SwStr% is the per-pitch metric most closely correlated to K% and therefore ERA predictors like FIP and SIERA. It's a very positive sign that his stuff which was so obviously flat early in the season is much improved.
 
The sudden return of BB and HBP-itis the last few starts is somewhat concerning and sent his xFIP up a bit after it had plummeted over the prior 5-6 starts. But I actually trust the team and Buchholz now when they say he's "healthy" as opposed to earlier this season when it was clear his arm wasn't 100%.
 
This is a great point - I seem to recall that Clay has struggled in the past with being able to adjust for just how good his stuff is on some nights. Last night, there were at-bats where his change-up was just unhittable, or his curveball was moving like crazy, but then he couldn't buy a strike with his fastball, and hitters started laying off the offspeed stuff, and it all unraveled. 
 
12 whiffs last night and 7 on that change-up. If we all basically agree that that's his big pitch, you have to be at least a little encouraged.
 
I'm still more or less on the Clay bandwagon. 
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,494
Not here
foulkehampshire said:
He has to be broken.
He's a scallop (yum) wrapped in bacon (yum) slathered in Velveeta (very not yum) and he looks like he's just not put together right, like when you were a kid and one of the wheels fell off your wagon and you couldn't find the bolt do you just stuck a big nail through and banged it bent to keep the wheel on. It worked for a very technical definition of worked but you could never go down the big hill again because the wagon pulled to the side rather dramatically and since that's all you wanted the wagon for, it became essentially useless.
 

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
DanoooME said:
So what now?  The guy is too inconsistent to be counted on regularly, yet you really can't trade him because you won't get much in return.
 
The guy is the Sox' Josh Johnson.  Talented, inconsistent, shows flashes of brilliance, can't stay healthy.
 
He's an enigma wrapped in a conundrum.
geoduck no quahog said:
Uhmmm....
 
Bump?
foulkehampshire said:
He has to be broken.
 
Three different days. Three different starts. Three different posters.
 
Same fucking story.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2006
11,636
The Coney Island of my mind
Rasputin said:
He's a scallop (yum) wrapped in bacon (yum) slathered in Velveeta (very not yum) and he looks like he's just not put together right, like when you were a kid and one of the wheels fell off your wagon and you couldn't find the bolt do you just stuck a big nail through and banged it bent to keep the wheel on. It worked for a very technical definition of worked but you could never go down the big hill again because the wagon pulled to the side rather dramatically and since that's all you wanted the wagon for, it became essentially useless.
Do we owe you $10 now?
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,124
mabrowndog said:
I think I need a refresher course in MS Paint. Where the fuck is Ricardo?
 
 
 
Awesome!
 
...and not awesome:
 

Boston

IP

H

R

ER

BB

SO

HR

ERA

Buchholz

5.0

8

7

7

5

5

0

6.20
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,494
Not here
67WasBest said:
:bravo: A masterpiece, it speaks to me.
Home plate being a mostly regular Pentagon is clearly a commentary on the extent to which its location has been kept a secret from Mr Buchholz.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,605
Rasputin said:
He's a scallop (yum) wrapped in bacon (yum) slathered in Velveeta (very not yum) and he looks like he's just not put together right, like when you were a kid and one of the wheels fell off your wagon and you couldn't find the bolt do you just stuck a big nail through and banged it bent to keep the wheel on. It worked for a very technical definition of worked but you could never go down the big hill again because the wagon pulled to the side rather dramatically and since that's all you wanted the wagon for, it became essentially useless.
 
simply amazing
 

teddywingman

Looks like Zach Galifianakis
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2009
11,211
a basement on the hill
I haven't watched many of Buchholz's recent starts. But I sat down tonight with a mind on watching him. 
 
After about the 3rd changeup he threw that floated high and away, I said to my dad, "he is going to get rocked tonight."
 
It's hard to understand why he can't come close to reliably throwing a pitch that he has mastered in the past. A pitch that doesn't really require added stress on the arm or shoulder--it seems that he just doesn't remember how to release it.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
14,293
Just so effing bad:
 

 
It's like the anti-donut hole. Either a non-competitive pitch or right down the gas-pipe, basically. 
 
And not only did he only get three swinging strikes this time, versus 12 in the last start, but all three of those pitches were way out of the zone and basically just guys chasing pitches they shouldn't be swinging at. No swings and misses in the zone. Sure, it's good to fool guys, but eventually they just lay off the offspeed stuff. 
 
The velocity is fine, the separation between the fastball and the change is huge, and the four-seamer was relatively okay (65 percent strikes), but there was just zero command of anything offspeed this time around. Zero. 
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
35,848
Deep inside Muppet Labs
At this point I'm hoping he's still injured or recovering from his WS start last year, because if this is the new reality for him then he's pretty much useless.
 
I can't believe this is the same guy that went 12-1 last year and was essentially unhittable until he got hurt.
 

ookami7m

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
5,678
Mobile, AL
I too said out loud after the second change up "going to need to score a bunch tonight". And the offense did it's thing but Clay couldn't hold.

I watched it on about a half hour delay but I rewound a bunch of times and his pitching motion looked more inconsistent than usual (not sure if confirmation bias because of the results). I'm mobile but how was his release point last night?
 

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
 there was just zero command of anything offspeed this time around. Zero. 
 
True. Look how all-over-the-place each of his pitch groupings were in all directions. He has no idea whatsoever where any of his offerings are going to end up.
 
 

glennhoffmania

meat puppet
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,411,677
NY
He looked completely unbalances at times, falling off more to the first base side than I remember.  To me it looks like both a mental and a physical issue.  He doesn't trust his stuff, and he's not repeating his delivery so even when he tries to nibble he has no command.  If he doesn't get his shit together over the next two months I don't know how they can rely on him for anything next year, so it would be yet another hole in the rotation to fill.
 

Hank Scorpio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 1, 2013
6,989
Salem, NH
[QUOTE="Hriniak]
WTF does that mean? Is this some kind of a metaphor or a problem with his workout routine?
[/QUOTE]
Could be an issue with John Farrell trying to cure whatever eating disorder Clay has.

Farrell: PICK UP THAT MEATBALL SUB, AND PUT IT IN YOUR MOUTH!

Clay: NO! (As he tosses the sub and hits Farrell between the eyes.)

Farrell: Clay, I'm not going to tell you again. You need to stop throwing meatballs.
 

Doooweeeey!

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,466
Baltimore via Brimfield
Outstanding posts, everyone.  A few hearty belly laughs here.  Thanks.
 
It's such a curiosity that Buchholz seems so utterly incapable of seeing the situation he's in.
The team does REALLY need him to step up right now, and he's walking into the burning forest with his gas can splashing fuel out the top. 
 

HriniakPosterChild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 6, 2006
14,841
500 feet above Lake Sammammish
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
At this point I'm hoping he's still injured or recovering from his WS start last year, because if this is the new reality for him then he's pretty much useless.
 
I can't believe this is the same guy that went 12-1 last year and was essentially unhittable until he got hurt.
 
How did he manage to get through 4 innings against the Cardinals and give up only a single run.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
16,851
I think he's been hurt since May of last year and still isn't healthy. The team expected him to come back earlier than he did last season, and when he did come back, he didn't pitch deep into games and didn't have his normal stuff. This year of course has been a disaster. He can't throw the ball with any command at all, except for a few short stretches. 
 
Back in June, he talked about pitching through pain last year:
“Last year, I had to figure out a way to throw that I didn’t feel altered in any way, that I didn’t feel anything hurting,” Buchholz told reporters in Detroit following Sunday’s sim game. “I’m sure a couple of things in my delivery changed last year without even trying. Just human nature, if something hurts, you try to do it differently. I’m sure that followed me into spring training this year. It just took me a little longer to do it than I wanted to.”
 
 
This is an interesting blog from last July:
"What Buchholz is going through right now probably doesn't mean he can't pitch. It may very well mean he can't be the pitcher that we all want him to be.
Cafardo correctly mentions that Buchholz has said that, if this were September, he'd pitch."
 
He did come back and pitch in time for the playoffs, but he got through that shortened World Series start on smoke and mirrors.
 
My guess is that last year the team was pushing him to pitch through pain, and he didn't want to, but finally did in September and the playoffs. And he might still be doing that this season, only instead of giving us a few effective innings in a huge game, he is basically John Lackey in 2011-- not that he has the same injury Lackey did, but that he isn't healthy but is going out there and pitching anyway because he is not so hurt that he can't pitch, just so hurt that he can't pitch effectively. 
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,494
Not here
Doooweeeey! said:
It's such a curiosity that Buchholz seems so utterly incapable of seeing the situation he's in.
The team does REALLY need him to step up right now, and he's walking into the burning forest with his gas can splashing fuel out the top. 
I think he sees the situation, he just can't find his way out. If he doesn't GET LAMP soon, he's going to be eaten by a grue.