Angst von Buchholz

[Sprowl]

Despite being outpitched by Michael Pineda, I thought that Buchholz looked pretty good. His movement and variety look like 2013 pre-injury: six well differentiated pitches, in order of frequency: cutter, sinker, fastball, curve, changeup and splitter. Velocity on the fastballs in the low 90s is pretty good for April. The contrast in movement between the cutter and the sinker gave Buchholz plenty of options for painting the edges.
 

 
Buchholz didn't have consistent command throughout, though. He pitched up in the zone early in the game, and through a few meaty changeups later. This chart is not so much a donut hole as a bagel schmear, or perhaps the giant spaghetti monster with a few too many meatballs:
 

 

[Sampo Gida]

He had a generous strike zone and the Yankees have not exactly been mashing the ball to start the season, but he definitely had better results and had some hitters chasing some balls out of the zone. 

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I thought he looked very uncomfortable out of the stretch after the error. Once he got back into the windup with the double play he settled down. He also got burned by the Nava bad route.

The fact that he relied on the cutter so much suggests he didn't love his stuff.

 

[radsoxfan]

I thought it was an encouraging outing.  Better velo, 6Ks, 0BBs. He gave up 4 runs, but only 2 earned.  That Herrera error to start an inning against Jacoby really hurt.  
 
I think he throws too many cutters, and obviously needs his change/splitter to be more consistent. But overall, much better outing than game 1.  Gives hope that he might get back to the form of early last season. 

 

[JMDurron]

I agree, his stuff looked much better, even though the error seemed to make him unravel a bit in a key inning. I've moved from wondering if he Foulked himself last October to being cautiously optimistic going forward.

 

[Plympton91]

I think another key thing that suggests he's basically healthy was that, at least from the eyeball test on the NESN gun, his velocity stayed fairly consistent throughout the game, and may have even ticked up a bit as I noticed a couple of 92 mph, 93 mph four seam fastballs in the 5th and 6th innings.   There was not the clear dropoff in stuff after 4 innings that we saw consistently after he came back from the injury last season.

 

[Jnai]

Changeup velo was a bit higher than it's been in the last few seasons. I wonder if those were more splits than Harry tagged, or just an aberrant game.
 
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=453329&b_hand=-1&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/11/2014&gFilt=&pFilt=CH

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The split is still a relatively new pitch for him, right? I think it's a great weapon against lefties, but it wouldn't be surprising if he missed up with it from time to time, as it seemed like he was doing last night. 
 
The splitter up is a fat, fat pitch. It needs to dive out of the zone to be effective. If it's still relatively new to him, and working with a new catcher, I think it's reasonable to give him some time to figure out where it needs to start in the zone. 
 
Also, with as varied an arsenal as he has, it might take time for AJ to really get a feel for what pitch to call for when. 
 
I was very encouraged by the bit on the curveball, but I would have liked to see a few more four-seamers and would have liked to see him get some swings and misses with it. There was a time when his heater could get by people. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

I didn't see the game. When I saw the topic name, I thought it was going to be that Clay caused angst, or more angst last night. But, sounds like he may be getting there? Any post game words from him?

 

[Jnai]

Sort of. Two years new, at this point.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

He just gave up 7 hits in the third inning, allowing 6 runs.

His stuff is beyond bad. His fastball is 88-91 with more hitting the 80's than 90's.

He has completely lost his change up. His curvel is rolling, and he is dependent on his cutter that has become insanely flat.

At this point you almost hope something is still wrong with him, because if this "stuff" is the new normal then we have a huge problem.

It's time to DL Clay, call up Workman or Rubby, and try to get this thing sorted out off the field.

 

[joe dokes]

 

insanely flat.

At this point you almost hope something is still wrong with him, because if this "stuff" is the new normal then we have a huge problem.

It's time to DL Clay, call up Workman or Rubby, and try to get this thing sorted out off the field.

 
Unfortunately, you can't DL him if you only *hope* something is wrong. Thre actually has to *be* something wrong.

 

[Frank Castillo]

 
 
Unfortunately, you can't DL him if you only *hope* something is wrong. Thre actually has to *be* something wrong.

 
If a team wants to DL a player, they can usually find something wrong, whether it's a contusion, strain, inflammation, soreness, general malaise, etc.

 

[czar]

He just gave up 7 hits in the third inning, allowing 6 runs.

His stuff is beyond bad. His fastball is 88-91 with more hitting the 80's than 90's.

He has completely lost his change up. His curvel is rolling, and he is dependent on his cutter that has become insanely flat.

At this point you almost hope something is still wrong with him, because if this "stuff" is the new normal then we have a huge problem.

It's time to DL Clay, call up Workman or Rubby, and try to get this thing sorted out off the field.

 
NESN's gun readings were low compared to PF/X.
 
PF/X had four seamer at 91.7 avg, 94 max today. Two-seam was at 91 avg (91.3 max) with cutter sitting 87.5 (89.1 max). He was actually up a tick today compared to the Chicago game (which was way up on the MLW start, a hair behind the NYY start).
 
FWIW, Buchholz still has 3.51 xFIP, ~3.45 SIERA (after today's start). He's currently the 2nd best Red Sox starter (behind Lester) by peripherals (you can construe that as either positive re: Buchholz or negative re: Lackey/Doubront/Peavy I suppose).
 
Lack of swings and misses was somewhat concerning today (only 2 in 55ish pitches), but he's been BABIPed (.426) so far, especially since his GB% is right around average (Buchholz career BABIP is .281).
 
I don't think he's ever getting that "sits 94 with the fastball" back, but people conveniently forget he wasn't there the last couple years either and he pitched OK (when he wasn't bleeding internally or whatever).

 

[joe dokes]

 

NESN's gun readings were low compared to PF/X.
 
PF/X had four seamer at 91.7 avg, 94 max today. Two-seam was at 91 avg (91.3 max) with cutter sitting 87.5 (89.1 max). He was actually up a tick today compared to the Chicago game (which was way up on the MLW start, a hair behind the NYY start).
 
FWIW, Buchholz still has 3.51 xFIP, ~3.45 SIERA (after today's start). He's currently the 2nd best Red Sox starter (behind Lester) by peripherals (you can construe that as either positive re: Buchholz or negative re: Lackey/Doubront/Peavy I suppose).
 
Lack of swings and misses was somewhat concerning today (only 2 in 55ish pitches), but he's been BABIPed (.426) so far, especially since his GB% is right around average (Buchholz career BABIP is .281).
 
I don't think he's ever getting that "sits 94 with the fastball" back, but people conveniently forget he wasn't there the last couple years either and he pitched OK (when he wasn't bleeding internally or whatever).

 

So given all that, and maybe owing to some small samples, is he the most obvious victim of a subpar team defense, where outs turn into singles and singles to doubles?

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Farrell, Nieves, and Clay all said after the game that he is 100% healthy and building up arm strength.

I hope that's right. Clay is as important as it gets to this team.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I wonder how much of the recent problems with some starters is a function of having them take it a little slower in Spring Training due to the long 2013 season. I bring this up because I think April is a lousy month by which to judge pitchers.
 
In other words, I'm preaching patience.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
NESN's gun readings were low compared to PF/X.

 
This is interesting. I thought the gun NESN uses used to be a little on the hot side. Have they replaced or recalibrated it?

 

[SouthernBoSox]

 
This is interesting. I thought the gun NESN uses used to be a little on the hot side. Have they replaced or recalibrated it?

It also means Tommy Hunter was throwing 100 MPH and Chen was throwing 95.
 
I know Hunter is capable of that on his best day, but I'm a little skeptical that pitch f/x isn't a little off there. All other pitchers seemed to be right where they normally are according to the NESN gun.

 

[Doctor G]

I wonder how much of the recent problems with some starters is a function of having them take it a little slower in Spring Training due to the long 2013 season. I bring this up because I think April is a lousy month by which to judge pitchers.
 
In other words, I'm preaching patience.

Is it a product of the Sox being too predictable in approach. Might be the time for some serious self scouting. Milwaukee established the value of a really aggressive approach early in counts. is that the new book on Red Sox  starters. First pitch strikes are not valuable if they are mediocre fasballs. 

 

[mabrowndog]

The chances of Clay getting a contract extension from the Red Sox are...
 

 
... remote.

 

[nvalvo]

The chances of Clay getting a contract extension from the Red Sox are...
 
 
 
... remote.

 
I'd expect them to pick up the pair of $13m options for '16 and '17, though. That was a pretty tremendous contract Theo negotiated. 

 

[czar]

It also means Tommy Hunter was throwing 100 MPH and Chen was throwing 95.
 
I know Hunter is capable of that on his best day, but I'm a little skeptical that pitch f/x isn't a little off there. All other pitchers seemed to be right where they normally are according to the NESN gun.

 
PF/X had Hunter at 97 mph and Chen at 92 mph.
 
FWIW, here's Buchholz's PF/X chart for today.

 

[Rasputin]

The chances of Clay getting a contract extension from the Red Sox are...
 

 
... remote.

 
The problem is that if Buchholz continues to suck we have to not pick up his 2016 option which means both Lackey and Buchholz would need replacing in a single season. We could extend Lackey but he's pitching at 35 this year and do you really want to pay for his 37-38 yo seasons?
 
Assuming we replace Peavy with Workman for 2015, we'd be banking on two of Barnes, Ranaudo, de la Rosa, Webster, and Henry Owens to come through at the same time and some of these guys will have spent a lotta time in Pawtucket and/or the Boston bullpen. 
 
Buchholz sucking is problematical. I would like him to not suck.

 

[Toe Nash]

According to the Sox, his arm strength is still building:
 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/04/21/red-sox-insist-clay-buchholzs-arm-strength-not-health-is-the-issue/
 

 
Therein lies some of the early-season frustration for Buchholz. He doesn’t suffer from any discomfort, nor is he limited, but after starting his throwing program later than usual this offseason (in deference to the months he missed last year with a shoulder injury and the fact that he was pitching, for the first time in his career, till the end of October), he’s still working to build the arm strength that will permit him to throw with more power and life, at which point, he expects to see improved results.
But it remains to be seen precisely when that point arrives.
Buchholz described his arm strength as “not quite there. It feels like it’s getting better. I feel like later, well there wasn’t really late in the game today, but later in the past two games, if I wanted to reach back, there were 92s and 93s there. That usually comes pretty easy. I’m struggling with that a little bit right now. But that’ll come together.

I know I don't fully understand all the process, but if he started his throwing program late, and 3 weeks into the season still doesn't feel like he's all the way there (nor do the results show it), wouldn't it have made sense to start him in extended spring training? It's not like the team doesn't have a plethora of guys in AAA who could get a three-week look and probably perform decently. You could also learn something about whether Ranaudo or Workman can hack it in MLB right now, which would come in handy if there was an injury later.
 
They were cautious with Buchholz last year to what seemed like a ridiculous extent, but seemed to just put him out there this year. Don't really get it.

 

[Jnai]

 
This is interesting. I thought the gun NESN uses used to be a little on the hot side. Have they replaced or recalibrated it?

 
Here's current corrections:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/hot_cameras.php
 
Here's historical BOS velo corrections:

 
 
 
(Here's Bos PFX_X corrections, which are the more troubling ones)

 
(These are all updated every ~6 hours on the site and are already reflected in the data you see.)

 

[Sampo Gida]

According to the Sox, his arm strength is still building:
 
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/04/21/red-sox-insist-clay-buchholzs-arm-strength-not-health-is-the-issue/
 
I know I don't fully understand all the process, but if he started his throwing program late, and 3 weeks into the season still doesn't feel like he's all the way there (nor do the results show it), wouldn't it have made sense to start him in extended spring training? It's not like the team doesn't have a plethora of guys in AAA who could get a three-week look and probably perform decently. You could also learn something about whether Ranaudo or Workman can hack it in MLB right now, which would come in handy if there was an injury later.
 
They were cautious with Buchholz last year to what seemed like a ridiculous extent, but seemed to just put him out there this year. Don't really get it.

 
I don't know that they were cautious to a ridiculous extent.  I suspect his shoulder issue was much more serious than we are being led to believe and that his issues this season are related to that shoulder issue.  Given its almost 11 months since he was first shut down due to the shoulder there is reason for concern.
 
I think delaying his start to the season may have made sense if they felt it would do him any good. The fact that they didn't suggests to me that they are going to find out one way or another if the conservative approach worked and if not what happens happens. 

 

[Plympton91]

He had a horrendous April in 2012 too and then wS fine the rest if the season. Too early to panic.

 

[threecy]

He had a horrendous April in 2012 too and then wS fine the rest if the season. Too early to panic.

I don't think I agree with that recollection.  He was terrible in April and much of May, elite starting with his last start of May through mid August, then the wheels fell off starting on August 22 (7 runs, 12 hits in 5.1 innings), resulting in a personal 5 game losing streak (with the Sox dropping 7 of 8), ending with the 8 run, 1 2/3 inning October 1 start.

 

[Sampo Gida]

He had a horrendous April in 2012 too and then wS fine the rest if the season. Too early to panic.

 
Didn't get his first "QS" (based on runs and not ER)  until May 27 in 2012 and while he was pretty good for the  next 3 months he did not have a good September.  A repeat of 2012 is certainly not a worst case, buts its not all that much to look forward to.

 

[czar]

I don't think I agree with that recollection.  He was terrible in April and much of May, elite starting with his last start of May through mid August, then the wheels fell off starting on August 22 (7 runs, 12 hits in 5.1 innings), resulting in a personal 5 game losing streak (with the Sox dropping 7 of 8), ending with the 8 run, 1 2/3 inning October 1 start.

 
 

 
Didn't get his first "QS" (based on runs and not ER)  until May 27 in 2012 and while he was pretty good for the  next 3 months he did not have a good September.  A repeat of 2012 is certainly not a worst case, buts its not all that much to look forward to.

 
His ERA from end of May onward was 3.41 (2.91 if you want to cherry pick and ignore the last start meltdown in NYY).
 
I'd be ecstatic if Buchholz (or any of our pitchers) could put up a 3.41 in 2014 in the AL East. (Kuroda and Price were only two qualified ALE SP who bested that mark last season).

 

[Plympton91]

Yeah, I remembered the struggles at the end of the season too and just think they were the result of the lack of stamina resulting from the lost season he had in 2011 plus the general meltdown of the team at the end of 2012. Plus I'd done that calculation before and came to the conclusion you did, even without throwing out those starts the aggregate was good.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Just watched the replay of all those hits in a row - that's the definition of bad luck. A bunch of dribblers and flares, a ball Victorino definitely catches, and then the wall ball.

I'm not worried yet.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

It also means Tommy Hunter was throwing 100 MPH and Chen was throwing 95.
 
I know Hunter is capable of that on his best day, but I'm a little skeptical that pitch f/x isn't a little off there. All other pitchers seemed to be right where they normally are according to the NESN gun.

 
I was at Fenway today, and the gun had Buch at 88-90, Chen at 91-92, and Hunter at 95-98.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Just watched the replay of all those hits in a row - that's the definition of bad luck. A bunch of dribblers and flares, a ball Victorino definitely catches, and then the wall ball.

I'm not worried yet.

 
Buchholz used to have swing and miss stuff.  I'm worried.

 

[teddywingman]

 
Buchholz used to have swing and miss stuff.  I'm worried.

He's been this bad before, and has recovered. His success relies heavily on 'feel'. I am confident he will be good again, and soon if he is truly healthy.

 

[threecy]

 
Buchholz used to have swing and miss stuff.  I'm worried.

I think that ship sailed a long time ago.  During his initial minor league stint and call up (ie his no hitter), he was a strikeout pitcher.  However, it didn't take long for the league to realize that his curveball at the time was unhittable because it was out of the strike zone.  It was a bumpy ride after that.

 

[wolfe_boston]

Just watched the replay of all those hits in a row - that's the definition of bad luck. A bunch of dribblers and flares, a ball Victorino definitely catches, and then the wall ball.

I'm not worried yet.

 
 

Just watched the replay of all those hits in a row - that's the definition of bad luck. A bunch of dribblers and flares, a ball Victorino definitely catches, and then the wall ball.

I'm not worried yet.

I agree, there is an element of bad luck in a big inning.  Look at all the times a position player has come in and given up less than 6 runs.  It will be a long time before the Sox give up on him; the Giants kept Zito in the rotation until the bitter end.  The only thing they might consider is to put him in the bullpen for awhile.

 

[Reverend]

Just watched the replay of all those hits in a row - that's the definition of bad luck. A bunch of dribblers and flares, a ball Victorino definitely catches, and then the wall ball.

I'm not worried yet.

 
Like HPC, I'm much less sanguine. I was with a few people and we noticed Buchholz losing his focus as soon as the first runner got on. He lets things get in his head incredibly quickly and doesn't seem to have the stuff to get out of what shouldn't really even be considered that much of a jam.
 
But this is the guy who once forgot how to throw his best pitch and then remembered again, so there's always hope.

 

[czar]

 
Like HPC, I'm much less sanguine. I was with a few people and we noticed Buchholz losing his focus as soon as the first runner got on. He lets things get in his head incredibly quickly and doesn't seem to have the stuff to get out of what shouldn't really even be considered that much of a jam.
 
But this is the guy who once forgot how to throw his best pitch and then remembered again, so there's always hope.

 
Buchholz is actually a better pitcher (by wOBA against) with runners on base (.287 RISP, .300 men on, .317 bases empty), so I'm not sure if this "gets in his own head once someone reaches base" thing is burned out yet.

 

[Reverend]

Buchholz is actually a better pitcher (by wOBA against) with runners on base (.287 RISP, .300 men on, .317 bases empty), so I'm not sure if this "gets in his own head once someone reaches base" thing is burned out yet.

Interesting. How consistent is that across time? I think tere have been distinct "phases" to his career which is part of the frustration. I seem to remember a phase in early 2012 was it? when he have up a ton of home runs, I think often with nobody on. If it's enough to skew the data, though, I don't know.

 

[joe dokes]

Just watched the replay of all those hits in a row - that's the definition of bad luck. A bunch of dribblers and flares, a ball Victorino definitely catches, and then the wall ball.

I'm not worried yet.

 It's luck / a defense that's not as good as last year's.

 

I was with a few people and we noticed Buchholz losing his focus as soon as the first runner got on.
 

 
What does "losing his focus" look like?

 

[Jnai]

 
 
What does "losing his focus" look like?

 
Buchholz tends to throw over a ton and slow games down to a glacial pace with a runner on.

 

[joe dokes]

 
Buchholz tends to throw over a ton and slow games down to a glacial pace with a runner on.

 
As far as I can tell (from B-Ref anyway), his results with men on don't seem much different than without. When a successfull pitcher slows the game, "he's bearing down"  or "giving the runner different looks." Was he actually pitching faster last year or throwing over less (he certainly wasn't letting a whole bunch of guys on base).  Getting guys out makes the game go faster.
For me these questions are as much rhetorical as not. I don't think we know shit about his "focus."
 
He might not ever have the arm he did.
He might be building back up to that.
He might have lost confidence in a defense that, last year anyway, was so strong that he consciously tried to throw more groundballs (at least I think I remember him saying that last year.) 
Last year's injury might have been really, really bad, such that the fact that he was the best pitcher in the leagueless than a year ago no longer matters.

 

[ivanvamp]

What does "losing his focus" look like?

 
It looks like him not throwing as well as he does when he's focused.

 

[Jnai]

 
As far as I can tell (from B-Ref anyway), his results with men on don't seem much different than without. When a successfull pitcher slows the game, "he's bearing down"  or "giving the runner different looks." Was he actually pitching faster last year or throwing over less (he certainly wasn't letting a whole bunch of guys on base).  Getting guys out makes the game go faster.
For me these questions are as much rhetorical as not. I don't think we know shit about his "focus."

 
I understand that cognitive states can only be discerned through behavioral ambassadors, which we often misinterpret.

 

[Bleedred]

If he's going to suck, can he at least work faster?

 

[teddywingman]

He's been this bad before, and has recovered. His success relies heavily on 'feel'. I am confident he will be good again, and soon if he is truly healthy.

Yeah dats right!
 
I'm saying this just after I one-hand a soft foul ball and present my douchenozzleness to the crowd.
 
Edit: "I'm the fucking mannn."

 

[teddywingman]

Somebody knows what I'm talking about, and they know who they are.
 
But really what it comes down to, Buchholz was spot-on with a high percentage of the pitches thrown tonight. as far as my resurrection of this thread which was languishing on the bottom of page two--I am going to Canada in the morning. The deepest darkest part of the Canadian coast where 19th century radio still broadcasts a light beam from Mars.
 
WARNING: to other main board readers. these posts are not to be tolerated. teddywingman might get banned for this drivel. and well he probably should. I hope the good lord is ordered to grant mercy on me. By the power of BABIP.

 

[Rasputin]

In the past 12.1 innings he has allowed one run on six hits, five walks, and seven ks.
 
Yeah, I cherry picked the starting line pretty heavily. Still, it's encouraging.