And on this farm he had some prospects B-L-O-O-M

Zupcic Fan

loves 8 inch long meat
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I find it hysterical that anyone is talking about the pros and cons of signing Aaron Judge. I certainly don’t care as much as I used to about all these things, but my suspicion is that if the Sox want to sign him they will need to offer him ownership of the team. i Can’t conceive of any scenario where he isn’t a Yankee next year.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
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Jul 19, 2005
3,432
I find it hysterical that anyone is talking about the pros and cons of signing Aaron Judge. I certainly don’t care as much as I used to about all these things, but my suspicion is that if the Sox want to sign him they will need to offer him ownership of the team. i Can’t conceive of any scenario where he isn’t a Yankee next year.
I don’t expect it, either, but at the same time, how many people predicted Correa to the Twins?
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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Why do you think WAR overstates his defensive value?

According to fWAR, Marcus Semien and Jake Cronenworth are both 4-win players, more or less. Tommy Edman is a 5.5-win player, good for 15th in the majors. All three are valuable players, but not that valuable. I don’t understand the inner workings of the WAR calculation, but I know the concept of “replacement level” is more of an opinion than a fact. I think the calculation is systematically overvaluing the ability to play passable defense at second base.
 

jon abbey

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I don’t expect it, either, but at the same time, how many people predicted Correa to the Twins?
Not a similar situation in that Correa’s team essentially didn’t want him back at a FA salary with Pena waiting. Cano to the Mariners is a better example.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
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Jul 19, 2005
3,432
Not a similar situation in that Correa’s team essentially didn’t want him back at a FA salary with Pena waiting. Cano to the Mariners is a better example.
My point was only that predicting FA destinations isn’t always so obvious, not that there are necessarily any similarities beyond “they’re both free agents.”

EDIT: if you want a more analogous example, I think about 99% of observers expected Freddie Freeman to return to the Braves until about five minutes before the Matt Olson trade.
 
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donutogre

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Jul 20, 2005
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I find it hysterical that anyone is talking about the pros and cons of signing Aaron Judge. I certainly don’t care as much as I used to about all these things, but my suspicion is that if the Sox want to sign him they will need to offer him ownership of the team. i Can’t conceive of any scenario where he isn’t a Yankee next year.
I agree, but I wonder why that is?

Been thinking a lot about Xander, Devers, and Mookie due to a lot of the discussion on the board lately. Seems like a foregone conclusion that the Sox won't keep those guys, or at least it seems as likely they'll leave as they'll stay, and we all know what happened with Mookie. But with Judge, I can see no chance that the Yankees let him leave. I guess they just have that track record of signing their big free agents, whereas the Sox don't so much these days. Not saying one is better than the other, to be clear. But it's interesting that Zupcic Fan's reaction to the idea of Judge leaving NY is so similar to my own. It feels not worth discussing.

Someone down the thread mentioned Cano going to Seattle; it would feel like that. A pretty massive shock.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
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Dec 7, 2008
11,339
I agree, but I wonder why that is?

Been thinking a lot about Xander, Devers, and Mookie due to a lot of the discussion on the board lately. Seems like a foregone conclusion that the Sox won't keep those guys, or at least it seems as likely they'll leave as they'll stay, and we all know what happened with Mookie. But with Judge, I can see no chance that the Yankees let him leave. I guess they just have that track record of signing their big free agents, whereas the Sox don't so much these days. Not saying one is better than the other, to be clear. But it's interesting that Zupcic Fan's reaction to the idea of Judge leaving NY is so similar to my own. It feels not worth discussing.
Have the yankees even had a big free agent to re-sign since Cano left? Arguably Chapman I guess, though technically he wasn't a re-sign
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Have the yankees even had a big free agent to re-sign since Cano left? Arguably Chapman I guess, though technically he wasn't a re-sign
My point was only that predicting FA destinations isn’t always so obvious, not that there are necessarily any similarities beyond “they’re both free agents.”

EDIT: if you want a more analogous example, I think about 99% of observers expected Freddie Freeman to return to the Braves until about five minutes before the Matt Olson trade.
Stats seldom return to their teams once they hit free agency, though. Judge seems different in that the Yankees are rarely outbid.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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Stats seldom return to their teams once they hit free agency, though. Judge seems different in that the Yankees are rarely outbid.
Right, who was the last Big Star to actually reach free agency and then re-sign with their most-recent team? Stephen Strasburg is the most recent one I can think of but there are surely others I am not thinking of.
Have the yankees even had a big free agent to re-sign since Cano left? Arguably Chapman I guess, though technically he wasn't a re-sign
Didn’t Tanaka go back to Japan while he was still good? I recall people being surprised by that one.
 

jon abbey

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If a star FA just wants the most money and doesn't really care where that is (like Cano or Seager/Semien to TEX), then it's almost impossible to predict where they'll end up. Judge I don't think falls into that category, I'll be somewhat surprised if he goes anywhere besides NYY or SFG or LAD.
 

jon abbey

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Didn’t Tanaka go back to Japan while he was still good? I recall people being surprised by that one.
People who weren't paying attention maybe, NY didn't really want him back and he didn't want to play anywhere else in MLB.
 

Bread of Yaz

New Member
Mar 12, 2019
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If a star FA just wants the most money and doesn't really care where that is (like Cano or Seager/Semien to TEX), then it's almost impossible to predict where they'll end up. Judge I don't think falls into that category, I'll be somewhat surprised if he goes anywhere besides NYY or SFG or LAD.
Are the Mets a possible contender?
 

jon abbey

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Are the Mets a possible contender?
They have to deal with all of DeGrom, Diaz and Nimmo, all of whom they want back. Are they going to do all that and also go into the 8/320 range or even higher for Judge? Rumors are no but we'll see.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Judge is clearly able to get a ton from the Yankees. He’s on a HOF trajectory, will he switch teams just to maybe get a little bit more? I guess it’s possible but it’s hard to see how he doesn’t stick with the Yankees; they’ll go up a bit from their last offer and everyone will be happy.

Maybe if he has a terrible postseason and the Yankees dissapoint, things change? But I’m skeptical, seems like both sides want to stay together.
 

jon abbey

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they’ll go up a bit from their last offer and everyone will be happy.
I think they will go up $100M or so in the end, from 7/217 to 8/320, or maybe 10/350 if Judge prefers that. Cashman won't be happy about this but Judge is the very rare player that NY needs more (way more) than he needs them.
 

BaseballJones

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Honestly, if you're Judge, what better place to be a megastar than the New York Yankees? I say that with venom and respect to the NYY organization.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Judge is clearly able to get a ton from the Yankees. He’s on a HOF trajectory, will he switch teams just to maybe get a little bit more? I guess it’s possible but it’s hard to see how he doesn’t stick with the Yankees; they’ll go up a bit from their last offer and everyone will be happy.

Maybe if he has a terrible postseason and the Yankees dissapoint, things change? But I’m skeptical, seems like both sides want to stay together.
Players that choose not to sign prior to reaching free agency tend to be either players looking for max money or players who their team has little interest in bringing back (at max money anyway). If there is a true match of player wanting to stay and the team is willing to pay asking price, those deals come together before the player hits free agency. I think that's why there's a tendency for big ticket free agents to change teams rather than re-sign.

I have to think that if Judge stays, that contract will be done before free agency begins. Like within a day or two after the World Series ends, three or four if the Yankees play in it. If he hits the open market, I'd bet on him landing elsewhere.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think they will go up $100M or so in the end, from 7/217 to 8/320, or maybe 10/350 if Judge prefers that. Cashman won't be happy about this but Judge is the very rare player that NY needs more (way more) than he needs them.
Probably 10/362 or something to be cute.
 

nvalvo

Member
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Honestly, if you're Judge, what better place to be a megastar than the New York Yankees? I say that with venom and respect to the NYY organization.
I dunno, California? He grew up in a tiny town just east the Port of Stockton as a Giants fan.

The Giants have basically no salary commitments after 2023, and not a ton committed in 2023, although they will have plenty of holes to fill. They could afford pretty much anything.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I understand but the Yankees are still the gold standard MLB organization. New York is still the #1 city in America. I hate it but it’s true.
 

Jimbodandy

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In general I think WAR vastly overvalues defense versus offense. Teams generally agree with that since they're much more willing to carry players who can hit, but not field (the entire Phillies team), rather than the reverse. Story will need to see his offense come up some next year to actually be an All Star level player.

One thing that should really help him next year is the pickoff rules. He's really fast and also a good base stealer. He should be able to run at will when pitchers can't do much to keep him close.
Not sure that the Phillies is the best example for team construction with the #4 payroll and #12 record (yes, Sox are no bargain either). Just because one team undervalues defense doesn't mean that the baseball itself does. Phillies have the #7 FIP and the #19 ERA.

I mean, they're a good example of how there is more than one way to build a team. Not sure that they're a good example of how defense isn't important.
 

chawson

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According to fWAR, Marcus Semien and Jake Cronenworth are both 4-win players, more or less. Tommy Edman is a 5.5-win player, good for 15th in the majors. All three are valuable players, but not that valuable. I don’t understand the inner workings of the WAR calculation, but I know the concept of “replacement level” is more of an opinion than a fact. I think the calculation is systematically overvaluing the ability to play passable defense at second base.
I don’t know if you’re an Athletic subscriber, but there’s an interesting piece today on how next year’s proposed new rules would affect individual players, and whether and which hitters would benefit from a banned shift.

The article also gets into which positions on the diamond a banned shift would stand to increase value corresponding to infielder range. That section is built on a study by this guy and contains much math, but it concludes this way:

The league has been trying out bigger, slower defenders at second base and third base with the shift rules. Those players may be in for a rude awakening this year.

Whatever we can say about Story, he’s not one of the league’s bigger, slower defenders. His range will be an asset at second, where I expect he’ll stay. Another factor I hadn’t considered is that infield hits will rise because the larger bases make it a shorter trip from home to first. That would be a bad fit with Story’s possibly diminished across-the-diamond arm strength.

Interestingly, shortstop range is (slightly) less valuable with a shift ban, according to this study. Not really a needle-moving amount, but at least it wouldn’t be a strike against Bogaerts going forward.
 

simplicio

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Good article. Interesting to see that teams stand to benefit even more from 1B range than 2B (and preemptively: no, our guys aren't particularly good at that, though encouragingly Casas looks slightly better than Dalbec and substantially better than Hosmer).
 

Rovin Romine

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I understand but the Yankees are still the gold standard MLB organization. New York is still the #1 city in America. I hate it but it’s true.
The unique-wonder of New York is one of those uniquely American myths that people like to perpetuate. It certainly has some high points and key institutions, but those are pretty much available for visiting without the most-of-the-year-burden of being within commuting distance of the Toilet. And if you're adding in sticking around during the winter off-season because you've got kids and want them to have some stability. . .yeah, I think not.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,662
The unique-wonder of New York is one of those uniquely American myths that people like to perpetuate. It certainly has some high points and key institutions, but those are pretty much available for visiting without the most-of-the-year-burden of being within commuting distance of the Toilet. And if you're adding in sticking around during the winter off-season because you've got kids and want them to have some stability. . .yeah, I think not.
Interesting reply, but it really has nothing to do with my post. New York is the king of American cities. It just...is. I know that's not going to be a convincing reply to you, but that doesn't change the reality.

(Note: this doesn't mean that I think NY is the *best* city)
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Interesting reply, but it really has nothing to do with my post. New York is the king of American cities. It just...is. I know that's not going to be a convincing reply to you, but that doesn't change the reality.

(Note: this doesn't mean that I think NY is the *best* city)
It isn't what it used to be. People outside of NY don't grow up wanting to play with NY anymore. In basketball, they may as well just be another cold weather city.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
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Nov 4, 2007
62,314
Guys. That’s not true. NYC is still NYC. LA and Miami are the only competitors for pro athletes beyond idiosyncratic connections to other cities. There’s tons more to do here and you can be a celeb without people up your ass.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
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It isn't what it used to be. People outside of NY don't grow up wanting to play with NY anymore. In basketball, they may as well just be another cold weather city.
Man, you must have a lot of athlete friends who you talk to. Jealous.

People in this country not from NY have a somewhat unique hatred for NYC that I never quite understand. Specific to my relatives in MA, they are unanimous in how much NYC is a dump with people stacked on top of each other and how unspecial the city is. The last 2 years have just been like an echo chamber of people talking about crime in NYC and "they're never gonna fill up that office space again" comments.

All I can say is rumors of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'm finding the version of NYC that crawled out of covid hardly different, just way more media attention on the warts. In some ways, I think the charm has increased.
 
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moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
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Sep 20, 2005
8,213
The only league where the city is sometimes a draw is the NBA, and that’s only because the salary cap means the top players more or less make the same wherever they go. The Yankees get lots of FA because they outbid everyone, not because they are in NY.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Man, you must have a lot of athlete friends who you talk to. Jealous.

People in this country not from NY have a somewhat unique hatred for NYC that I never quite understand. Specific to my relatives in MA, they are unanimous in how much NYC is a dump with people stacked on top of each other and how unspecial the city is. The last 2 years have just been like an echo chamber of people talking about crime in NYC and "they're never gonna fill up that office space again" comments.

All I can say is rumors of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'm finding the version of NYC that crawled out of covid hardly different, just way more media attention on the warts. In some ways, I think the charm has increased.
I didn't say it was a dump. It's just another city nowadays. The world is smaller.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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The only league where the city is sometimes a draw is the NBA, and that’s only because the salary cap means the top players more or less make the same wherever they go. The Yankees get lots of FA because they outbid everyone, not because they are in NY.
When was the last time the Knicks were a draw for premium FA talent? Jalen Brunson baby.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Oct 31, 2013
73,108
Honestly, if you're Judge, what better place to be a megastar than the New York Yankees? I say that with venom and respect to the NYY organization.
He grew up near Stockton, CA, was a huge Giants fan and Bonds was his idol and it’s just as grandiose but much better a park as the toilet.
Home Runs are more photogenic and videogenic there, too, plus the NL now also has the DH.
Also a historic franchise.
Better off-season weather and imho a better city.
 

Jimbodandy

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When was the last time the Knicks were a draw for premium FA talent? Jalen Brunson baby.
NBA players like to play where they can win. And since everyone a hair to the right of the bell curve has his salary dictated by CBA, that means one of two places: 1. Where other good players already are or are going, or 2. Some place that has a recent history of winning. Neither of those applies to any NYC teams. New Yorkers are the only people who think that New York is an NBA draw.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
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Jul 15, 2005
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I didn't say it was a dump. It's just another city nowadays. The world is smaller.
No, you said "people outside of NY don't grow up wanting to play in NY anymore." Which is complete conjecture on your part, unless you know a bunch of athletes personally. Maybe they don't. Maybe they do.

and yea, the Knicks aren't a draw for super stars. If they start winning, that may change. But nobody wants to play for a loser.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
21,588
No, you said "people outside of NY don't grow up wanting to play in NY anymore." Which is complete conjecture on your part, unless you know a bunch of athletes personally. Maybe they don't. Maybe they do.

and yea, the Knicks aren't a draw for super stars. If they start winning, that may change. But nobody wants to play for a loser.
In the 90's, all I heard from the media every single day was how every single FA wanted to play in NY. Those stories do not exist anymore. If you want to call that conjecture, that's fine. But growing up in the 90s, every FA in baseball wanted to be a Yankee. Or at least that's what the media told us. They don't tell us that anymore.

And that's kind of my point. Teams want to play for winners. Not for the city of New York. If New York had a winner, sure they would play there.

They'll still play in NY, but not because it's NY.
 

InsideTheParker

persists in error
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Jul 15, 2005
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Man, you must have a lot of athlete friends who you talk to. Jealous.

People in this country not from NY have a somewhat unique hatred for NYC that I never quite understand. Specific to my relatives in MA, they are unanimous in how much NYC is a dump with people stacked on top of each other and how unspecial the city is. The last 2 years have just been like an echo chamber of people talking about crime in NYC and "they're never gonna fill up that office space again" comments.

All I can say is rumors of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. I'm finding the version of NYC that crawled out of covid hardly different, just way more media attention on the warts. In some ways, I think the charm has increased.
I dislike NYC intensely, but only because I've lived there. When I moved to Cambridge, MA, I could breathe again. I can't see Judge coming to Boston, however. No way. But to the Giants or the Dodgers? Way.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I dislike NYC intensely, but only because I've lived there. When I moved to Cambridge, MA, I could breathe again. I can't see Judge coming to Boston, however. No way. But to the Giants or the Dodgers? Way.
I can't see Judge coming to Boston but that's because Boston won't be close to the top offer. Do you think there's another reason he wouldn't sign here?
 

jon abbey

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When was the last time the Knicks were a draw for premium FA talent? Jalen Brunson baby.
I am a lifelong New Yorker but won’t defend the current version that much, but come on, you can’t have this discussion and ignore Kevin Durant.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
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I am a lifelong New Yorker but won’t defend the current version that much, but come on, you can’t have this discussion and ignore Kevin Durant.
Fair enough. I was tunneling in on the Knicks. The Nets are a FA destination spot.
 

Jimbodandy

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Fair enough. I was tunneling in on the Knicks. The Nets are a FA destination spot.
The Nets were an FA destination when they had a crapload of cap space and Kyrie/KD wanted to play together. Sure there were a couple of other cities that had cap space too, but I'm not sure that "we're more attractive than OKC" is the crown that we're talking about here.
 

lexrageorge

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I do believe the meme that "all free agents want to play for the Yankees" is indeed dated. Thanks to the CBA, other teams are able to compete for top talent on the free agent market, and often land them. Still, NY is still an attractive destination for high profile FA's, and the Yankees will always get their share. As will the Dodgers and Angels. The other west coast teams probably make up the next tier (Oakland excepted), followed by cities like Boston, Philly, St Louis, and then whoever is writing the checks.

For NBA free agents, it's clearly LA that tops the charts, although Golden State deserves credit for keeping their team together. Miami is probably a close 2nd. NY is up there, but definitely not #1, and title contention is a bigger issue among NBA free agents.

NFL and NHL: it's whomever is paying, period. Realities of the hard cap apply to both leagues.

EDIT: None of the above matters; when I look at Aaron Judge, I see long time New York Yankees player. He just fits the mold to a tee.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What about Scherzer? Gerrit Cole?
Did they prefer NY over other destinations or did money do the talking?

When I was growing up, players like Drew Henson were demanding trades back to NY even though he hadn't played above AA and NY had just traded him the year before. There were guys that were pretty much foregone conclusions to sign in NY once they hit FA or in the FA period. They were the player. Now they are one of many players.

The Nets were an FA destination when they had a crapload of cap space and Kyrie/KD wanted to play together. Sure there were a couple of other cities that had cap space too, but I'm not sure that "we're more attractive than OKC" is the crown that we're talking about here.
Everyone wanted to play for the Nets when Jay Z was involved, too. In the NBA, it's really about cap space and being able to form a team of super friends.
 

jon abbey

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There's not much of a reason to talk in general terms about MLB FAs if you're talking about Aaron Judge specifically. In his case, I think he'll end up either in NY or CA (his home state), and at least a few of those teams will be happy to give him $100M more than NYY offered him this spring (and that was a fair offer at the time). Judge to BOS would be shocking because it really doesn't seem like Bloom would give $300M+ to a 31 year old (Cashman is not going to be happy about it either) and because Judge already has too much history in NY and going to BOS would mess with that.
 

Just a bit outside

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First and foremost players are going to go where they get paid. In the 80s-90s every baseball player was saying New York because George paid the most or having him in the discussion drove the price up.

If teams are offering the same I think New York is still going to rank highly as a secondary factor as a city a lot of young guys would like to call home.