And on this farm he had some prospects B-L-O-O-M

[jezza1918]

Yeah. This seasons sucks, that's all I'm saying. It's a little disingenuous for ultra Bloomers (not saying that this is you, Sandy) to keep saying, "No. Actually this team is really good! We've been unlucky (Or hurt. Or the stars didn't align. Or the rain forests.)" It's a shit team that wasn't put together well. And maybe that was the point, IDK.

This is the opposite of the 2015 team where there was optimism cresting over the hill. The Sox were in last place, but they had exciting young players that were coming up and you knew that they were going to be good. They played so well, that I didn't want the season to end. It was a joy to watch that team grow and mature over the last three months.

Where is that here? We have Verdugo, who's fine but his ceiling is maybe an All-Star berth on a bad team. Kike Hernandez is average. Pham and Refsnyder are replacement level players. Bogaerts is probably gone, Devers is probably right behind him. And that's doubly depressing. Story is decent, but IDK, does he excite you? Arroyo is a good ballplayer, but he reminds me of a Darren Bragg type. Casas is struggling (which is fine) and Wong/McGuire are okay. Martinez is a shell of himself. Pivetta, Hill, Wacha, etc. are third to fourth starters and their bullpen is a human gas can. I do like watching Bello pitch. I'm sorta excited about that.

What I've maintained throughout this entire year is that I like watching stars play. The Red Sox used to be lousy with stars, even when they stunk or were mediocre, they had really good players that you'd tune in to check out. These Red Sox are boring and yes, there have been a handful of exciting games, but is that what we're hanging our hat on here? Has the bar for this franchise sunk so low? That's pretty shitty and that's all I'm saying.



I know you weren't and I wasn't making those comments toward you. I understand that was Bloom's philosophy and it's one that I 1000% disagree with. Baseball is entertainment, I want to watch good ballplayers play good baseball. You can't always have a good team, but good players are fun. I stay up to watch Angels games on MLB Network when I know that Trout or Ohtani are coming to bat (or in Ohtani's case, pitching). It stinks that Angels aren't good, but that's not their fault.

This wont help for next year, but perhaps re-reading this post will help get you excited for like 2024 and beyond? So optimism is climbing up that hill, maybe not cresting? There's probably space for a Kate Bush joke in here but it's been too long of a day for me to be creative. All that said, I do understand your position on it being entertainment...funnily enough I view it the same way. But at this point (and it's been this way for awhile), I'm just as entertained by the process of creating a team and offseason movement as I am with the actual product on the field. I should probably see someone about that.

 

[johnnywayback]

their three best players (Devers, Bogaerts and Eovaldi) are probably out the door. Story is hurt and is not a star. Sale is always hurt. Please tell me why I should be optimistic about this team; aside from getting a lobotomy?

I agree that if Devers, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi all leave and the Red Sox do absolutely nothing to replace any of them, that would result in the team not being very fun to watch. But I don't think it makes sense to assume that's what's going to happen.

I think it's far more likely than not that they are going to sign Devers long-term. I think it's far more likely than not that they are going to either re-sign Bogaerts or sign a major free agent like Correa to replace him. I think it's far more likely than not that they're going to use the strengthened farm system and this off-season's glut of payroll space to target a frontline starter through either trade or free agency.

I guess I would wonder why, aside from getting a lobotomy, anyone would assume that they're going to just sit on $100 million in payroll space while their best players walk and their roster full of good (if not star) players like Story, Verdugo, Whitlock, etc. withers. Am I supposed to believe all that money's just going to go back in John Henry's pocket while the team limps to a bunch of fourth-place finishes? That would suck but I don't think that's the plan.

 

[scottyno]

I picked 5th in the AL because that's how B-Ref lists them on the team page.

They have to split the LA market with the more successful Dodgers, they're terrible, and yet they've drawn 2.3 million and are smack dab in the middle of the attendance rankings. Given that the team stinks out loud that's very impressive, most bad teams draw flies, if that. Baltimore, for example, drew 793,000 or so last year.

I really wish you'd stop assigning nefarious motives every time a poster comments on one of your posts. It's not helpful at all.

Were they not splitting the market with the Dodgers before this season?

Also you know, every team was way down in attendance in 2021, wonder why.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

“far more likely than not that they are going to resign Devers” seems optimistic based on what they have offered him, what players like him have gotten, and what players like him do when this close to free agency. I dunno, most of the plans here seem to be “run it back, but give everyone raises” which feels like a dubious plan to me. Of course, if this year was just bad luck, maybe it makes sense. The Sox are in a weird spot where they were lousy, yet many of their top players are free agents.

But it’s hard to get too excited about payroll room given the relatively weak free agent class and what top rate free agents tend to go for. The Texas Rangers spent a ton on free agents last year, and look at them now.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Were they not splitting the market with the Dodgers before this season?

Also you know, every team was way down in attendance in 2021, wonder why.

Splitting an LA, Chicago or NY “market” is still not quite the same as say St. Louis having a market to themselves

 

[scottyno]

Splitting an LA, Chicago or NY “market” is still not quite the same as say St. Louis having a market to themselves

It wasn't a problem for either LA team for almost 20 years until this season

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I agree that if Devers, Bogaerts, and Eovaldi all leave and the Red Sox do absolutely nothing to replace any of them, that would result in the team not being very fun to watch. But I don't think it makes sense to assume that's what's going to happen.

I think it's far more likely than not that they are going to sign Devers long-term. I think it's far more likely than not that they are going to either re-sign Bogaerts or sign a major free agent like Correa to replace him. I think it's far more likely than not that they're going to use the strengthened farm system and this off-season's glut of payroll space to target a frontline starter through either trade or free agency.

I guess I would wonder why, aside from getting a lobotomy, anyone would assume that they're going to just sit on $100 million in payroll space while their best players walk and their roster full of good (if not star) players like Story, Verdugo, Whitlock, etc. withers. Am I supposed to believe all that money's just going to go back in John Henry's pocket while the team limps to a bunch of fourth-place finishes? That would suck but I don't think that's the plan.

I don’t think that they’re intentionally going to sit on $100m but from what I read over the trade deadline, Bloom doesn’t seem to be very decisive. And I think that he shops for deals, which is fine. But in the free agent market, if you don’t make a splash you’re missing your player.

And TBH I’m not sure there’s a good free agent to sign. Judge would solve a big hole in the Sox’ outfield and batting order, but I worry about giving a guy like that the years and money he’s going to get.

As far as Correa, I don’t think he’s that much of an upgrade over Bogaerts. And he’s going to want long dough and a lot of years. Do you commit that much cash when your best prospects are shortstops?

The other route is through traded. Bloom is a guy who likes to keep his prospects ( the opposite of DD), so I see him trading off a bunch of kids for MLB players? I don’t. I mean he hasn’t had a proclivity for doing that yet and he could change but I don’t think he will.

Again, the reports of indecision has me worried. I feel as if the other teams will start spending big bucks on the good free agents and we’re just going to sit there, tell people we were in on Player X and then sign this year’s version of Trevor Story.

The Sox need more than a story, they need a whole library.

 

[McSweeny]

I’m a little confused, you say there are no free agents you deem worthy of signing to big money contracts this off season, yet you’re concerned that the Red Sox won’t sign them?

I am also curious where you’re getting the “Bloom is indecisive” bit. I did some googling but didn’t find much. Can you pots a link or two?

 

[AlNipper49]

“far more likely than not that they are going to resign Devers” seems optimistic based on what they have offered him, what players like him have gotten, and what players like him do when this close to free agency. I dunno, most of the plans here seem to be “run it back, but give everyone raises” which feels like a dubious plan to me. Of course, if this year was just bad luck, maybe it makes sense. The Sox are in a weird spot where they were lousy, yet many of their top players are free agents.

But it’s hard to get too excited about payroll room given the relatively weak free agent class and what top rate free agents tend to go for. The Texas Rangers spent a ton on free agents last year, and look at them now

The template for creating a winning team isn’t exclusively signing other team’s teams stars to deals which reward for past performance and assume a significant amount of forward risk.

These teams have been mismanaged for years and did something…because they thought that they had to.

Under the current rules the way to do it is to create a bedrock of cost controlled talent that you can systemically rely on. Once that is churning you can augment your team with free agents or use your farm riches to strategically improve your team long-term.

I think they’ve done a really good job positionally. I think more work needs to be done on the farm with arms.

Bloom also, clearly, likes to look for diamonds in the rough. That’s fine for now until we know what the engine looks like. The other part that I’d like to see evolve more is creating the system that helps polish the diamonds in the rough. I’ve been disappointed with their organizational development and professional side coaching. I think that they can do better there.

 

[scottyno]

Signing this year's version of Story sounds like a pretty great idea, not sure why it would be a bad thing to sign a very good borderline star to a below market deal.

 

[moondog80]

Signing this year's version of Story sounds like a pretty great idea, not sure why it would be a bad thing to sign a very good borderline star to a below market deal.

Yes, of course this is true.

I look forward to them signing one of Correa/Turner/Dansby and people complaining that they were too cheap to keep Xander.

 

[johnnywayback]

I don’t think that they’re intentionally going to sit on $100m but from what I read over the trade deadline, Bloom doesn’t seem to be very decisive. And I think that he shops for deals, which is fine. But in the free agent market, if you don’t make a splash you’re missing your player.

And TBH I’m not sure there’s a good free agent to sign. Judge would solve a big hole in the Sox’ outfield and batting order, but I worry about giving a guy like that the years and money he’s going to get.

...

The Sox need more than a story, they need a whole library.

I mean, here's a wild-ass guess at what $90 million in AAV could get you without touching Judge or Correa:
- Dansby Swanson (5/100)
- Brandon Nimmo (5/85)
- Jose Abreu (2/30)
- Michael Wacha or Chris Bassitt (3/45)
- Edwin Diaz (5/90)
- Andrew Chafin (3/15)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Signing this year's version of Story sounds like a pretty great idea, not sure why it would be a bad thing to sign a very good borderline star to a below market deal.

Story’s OPS+ this year is 103 after it was 102 last season, and he’s missed an enormous amount of time. 2.5 WAR isn’t awful but it’s fair to say they expected more.

I certainly hope they don’t spend the FA premium on another player who puts up average numbers while getting hurt.

To me this goes back to the excellent point another poster made that the org is extremely risk averse with their own players and not risk averse enough with free agents.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Yes, of course this is true.

I look forward to them signing one of Correa/Turner/Dansby and people complaining that they were too cheap to keep Xander.

It depends. Xander has 5.7 WAR this year. If they let him walk and spend a lot of money (but not as much as Xander gets) on a player who doesn’t produce at that level, or even near that level, of course people will complain. As they should.

If they let him walk and somehow get a replacement of equal or better production then people will be very pleased.

 

[AlNipper49]

Story’s OPS+ this year is 103 after it was 102 last season, and he’s missed an enormous amount of time. 2.5 WAR isn’t awful but it’s fair to say they expected more.

I certainly hope they don’t spend the FA premium on another player who puts up average numbers while getting hurt.

To me this goes back to the excellent point another poster made that the org is extremely risk averse with their own players and not risk averse enough with free agents.

At $8.5m/1war this past offseason it's pretty safe to say that's exactly what they expected. Pretty on the nose there.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I’m a little confused, you say there are no free agents you deem worthy of signing to big money contracts this off season, yet you’re concerned that the Red Sox won’t sign them?

I am also curious where you’re getting the “Bloom is indecisive” bit. I did some googling but didn’t find much. Can you pots a link or two?

I honestly can’t find the article I remember seeing at the beginning of August, but I’m pretty sure it was a national writer. I know, that and a buck will get me a cup of coffee. I would have no argument if you didn’t believe me.

As far as the available free agents, I am
not impressed with the free agents available. Like I said, the Sox need an outfielder. They have a really good shortstop, the only thing that’s standing in their way of keeping him is money.

Why would you get rid of a superior player so you can spend just as much to get aone that isn’t quite as good? Why would you give Swanson or Turner or whomever big money and a lot of years when your most prized prospect is two to three years away and plays the same position?

Due to his age, I think Bogaerts is more apt to move to third or second to make room for Mayer.

I mean, here's a wild-ass guess at what $90 million in AAV could get you without touching Judge or Correa:
- Dansby Swanson (5/100)
- Brandon Nimmo (5/85)
- Jose Abreu (2/30)
- Michael Wacha or Chris Bassitt (3/45)
- Edwin Diaz (5/90)
- Andrew Chafin (3/15)

I wouldn’t mind these moves, they aren’t bad but I don’t see Swanson taking a five-year deal for that much and I don’t see Bloom paying that much for Diaz.

Abreu is someone I’ve always wanted. Chafin would be terrific too.

 

[moondog80]

At $8.5m/1war this past offseason it's pretty safe to say that's exactly what they expected. Pretty on the nose there.

For comparison, binky-for-some Kyle Schwarber has a WAR of 1.2 this year, and he's missed virtually no time.

 

[AlNipper49]

I just want Dansby. We need a shortstop with a wife who plays professional soccer. It just seems right. Having a stupid first name also helps. Sorry Xander, Sorry Marcelo. You both do have stupid names, but need a little work in the wife department.

 

[scottyno]

Story’s OPS+ this year is 103 after it was 102 last season, and he’s missed an enormous amount of time. 2.5 WAR isn’t awful but it’s fair to say they expected more.

I certainly hope they don’t spend the FA premium on another player who puts up average numbers while getting hurt.

To me this goes back to the excellent point another poster made that the org is extremely risk averse with their own players and not risk averse enough with free agents.

Well yeah, they probably expected him to play more than 94 games because he got hit on the wrist by a fastball, can't believe they didn't price that into the contract they gave him. If he plays a full season he likely ends up around 4-4.5 war, which is a great signing for 23.3m.

I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 4 war player is "average".

 

[grimshaw]

Yeah. This seasons sucks, that's all I'm saying. It's a little disingenuous for ultra Bloomers (not saying that this is you, Sandy) to keep saying, "No. Actually this team is really good! We've been unlucky (Or hurt. Or the stars didn't align. Or the rain forests.)" It's a shit team that wasn't put together well. And maybe that was the point, IDK.

This is the opposite of the 2015 team where there was optimism cresting over the hill. The Sox were in last place, but they had exciting young players that were coming up and you knew that they were going to be good. They played so well, that I didn't want the season to end. It was a joy to watch that team grow and mature over the last three months.

Where is that here? We have Verdugo, who's fine but his ceiling is maybe an All-Star berth on a bad team. Kike Hernandez is average. Pham and Refsnyder are replacement level players. Bogaerts is probably gone, Devers is probably right behind him. And that's doubly depressing. Story is decent, but IDK, does he excite you? Arroyo is a good ballplayer, but he reminds me of a Darren Bragg type. Casas is struggling (which is fine) and Wong/McGuire are okay. Martinez is a shell of himself. Pivetta, Hill, Wacha, etc. are third to fourth starters and their bullpen is a human gas can. I do like watching Bello pitch. I'm sorta excited about that.

I understand that was Bloom's philosophy and it's one that I 1000% disagree with. Baseball is entertainment, I want to watch good ballplayers play good baseball. You can't always have a good team, but good players are fun. I stay up to watch Angels games on MLB Network when I know that Trout or Ohtani are coming to bat (or in Ohtani's case, pitching). It stinks that Angels aren't good, but that's not their fault.

I totally get your view point. To someone like my dad who doesn't have many seasons left, this was a shit team to watch and he doesn't care about a few years from now. To me I'm being patient because I believe they will pounce soon, many prospects took big steps forward, and trying to speculate about what Bloom is going to do is a large part of my enjoyment.

I will say that in retrospect I was disappointed there wasn't a more exciting sure thing picked up for next season at the deadline because it's hard to see how they improve to 93-ish wins in one offseason. But I believe that his vision will work out long term.

 

[mauf]

Well yeah, they probably expected him to play more than 94 games because he got hit on the wrist by a fastball, can't believe they didn't price that into the contract they gave him. If he plays a full season he likely ends up around 4-4.5 war, which is a great signing for 23.3m.

I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 4 war player is "average".

League-average is about 2 WAR across 162 games, right? (Figuring replacement level is 45-50 wins, so 30-35 more to get to .500, with just under half of those coming from the pitching staff.) So if Story is a 4-win player, half of that value is coming from his bat, and the other half from his defense. Some of us are skeptical that even excellent defense at second base is worth that much.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well yeah, they probably expected him to play more than 94 games because he got hit on the wrist by a fastball, can't believe they didn't price that into the contract they gave him. If he plays a full season he likely ends up around 4-4.5 war, which is a great signing for 23.3m.

I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 4 war player is "average".

But see, in the real world and not this hypothetical one you're making up, he's not a 4-WAR player. He's a 2.4 WAR player, starter quality but no more, because when all is said and done he'll have missed 60+ games. He also got off to a terrible start this year which didn't help.

To use your own words, I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 2.4 WAR player is a good deal for 23.3M. Bad luck, injuries, fluke, whatever, he has been a an extremely poor return on investment this year.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

At $8.5m/1war this past offseason it's pretty safe to say that's exactly what they expected. Pretty on the nose there.

He had 4.2 WAR his last year in Colorado. I highly doubt the Sox handed him $160 million to have that decline by ~40%.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

For comparison, binky-for-some Kyle Schwarber has a WAR of 1.2 this year, and he's missed virtually no time.

That is largely because his fielding is ATROCIOUS; he's put up a -1.8 WAR defensively this year.

The man should have signed with an AL team to be their DH. He no longer has any business in the field.

 

[JCizzle]

That is largely because his fielding is ATROCIOUS; he's put up a -1.8 WAR defensively this year.

The man should have signed with an AL team to be their DH. He no longer has any business in the field.

Are you sitting down, because I have some news for you.

 

[moondog80]

That is largely because his fielding is ATROCIOUS; he's put up a -1.8 WAR defensively this year.

The man should have signed with an AL team to be their DH. He no longer has any business in the field.

And if the Sox signed him, either him or the equally (or close) poor JD Martinez would have had to play in the field somewhere.

But just looking at his offense, his oWAR is 2.5, which isn't terrible but not great either. For comparison, Story has accumulated an oWAR of 2.0 in 396 PA (as opposed to 608 for Schwarber). The HR are great but a 30% K rate, .215 AVG and .313 OBP are tough. If Philly wanted to trade him they'd have to eat a bit of his contract I'd think.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And if the Sox signed him, either him or the equally (or close) poor JD Martinez would have had to play in the field somewhere.

But just looking at his offense, his oWAR is 2.5, which isn't terrible but not great either. For comparison, Story has accumulated an oWAR of 2.0 in 396 PA (as opposed to 608 for Schwarber). The HR are great but a 30% K rate, .215 AVG and .313 OBP are tough. If Philly wanted to trade him they'd have to eat a bit of his contract I'd think.

I agree. The 40 HRs are great but all his other numbers are pretty awful. Citizen's Bank Park is a neutral park this year for runs, so the park isn't hurting him but it's not helping him either. And the park wouldn't account for the high K rate.

And I have no idea why Philly thought playing him every day in the OF was a good idea.

 

[johnnywayback]

But see, in the real world and not this hypothetical one you're making up, he's not a 4-WAR player. He's a 2.4 WAR player, starter quality but no more, because when all is said and done he'll have missed 60+ games. He also got off to a terrible start this year which didn't help.

To use your own words, I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 2.4 WAR player is a good deal for 23.3M. Bad luck, injuries, fluke, whatever, he has been a an extremely poor return on investment this year.

C'mon. He's a 4-WAR player who only put up 2.4 WAR this year because of a fluke injury. If he doesn't get hit on the wrist next year, do you think he'll put up 4 WAR or 2.4 WAR?

 

[chawson]

“far more likely than not that they are going to resign Devers” seems optimistic based on what they have offered him, what players like him have gotten, and what players like him do when this close to free agency. I dunno, most of the plans here seem to be “run it back, but give everyone raises” which feels like a dubious plan to me. Of course, if this year was just bad luck, maybe it makes sense. The Sox are in a weird spot where they were lousy, yet many of their top players are free agents.

But it’s hard to get too excited about payroll room given the relatively weak free agent class and what top rate free agents tend to go for. The Texas Rangers spent a ton on free agents last year, and look at them now.

This seems like an uncharitable read. You've griped about it a bunch, so I'm assuming you're talking about Eovaldi and Wacha, for whom qualified offer salaries of 1/$19 or so would constitute a "raise." But what's your alternative for replacing 350 innings of starting pitching (Wacha, Eovaldi and Hill, who I assume you also don't want back) to the tune of a 3.79 ERA/3.95 FIP? (That's also factoring a down year from Eovaldi, who put up a 5.7 fWAR season in 2021). You've mentioned trading for Pablo Lopez a couple times. He's got a 3.99 ERA and 3.77 FIP in 160 innings. He'd likely cost something like Yorke and Rafaela. Is that a better use of resources?

It's an asset to be able to offer above-average starters an exclusive one-year deal at market-rate AAV.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

C'mon. He's a 4-WAR player who only put up 2.4 WAR this year because of a fluke injury. If he doesn't get hit on the wrist next year, do you think he'll put up 4 WAR or 2.4 WAR?

We all know wrist injuries never linger, Nomar went to the Hall of Fame after his, after all.

Wait.....

Also, he's on the IL right now because of a heel injury. So he has a few things he's been dealing with.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’d probably go with Whitlock and Houck as starters, and get the best controllable young starter we can acquire with prospects we are comfortable moving. I think it’s time to start cashing in on some draft capital but reasonable minds can disagree.

And again, I’m interested in bringing Wacha back, and maybe Eovaldi, on more reasonable, multi-year deals. I don’t think 1/$19 for each is ideal, especially not for Wacha. But maybe I’m misreading his market.

 

[mauf]

But see, in the real world and not this hypothetical one you're making up, he's not a 4-WAR player. He's a 2.4 WAR player, starter quality but no more, because when all is said and done he'll have missed 60+ games. He also got off to a terrible start this year which didn't help.

To use your own words, I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 2.4 WAR player is a good deal for 23.3M. Bad luck, injuries, fluke, whatever, he has been a an extremely poor return on investment this year.

I will defend @scottyno to the extent this year’s injury was random. But perfect injury luck can’t be assumed either.

Story was previously a reasonably healthy player who played 140-145 games in a typical season. Assuming something like his current injury was going to happen at some point in the course of his 6-year deal, he needs to produce the hoped-for value in 125-130 games rather than 140-145. If we set the bar for year 1 of Story’s deal at 4 WAR (not expecting 24 WAR overall, but he will decline over the contract term), he was pacing a bit below that over 125-130 games before he got hurt. I think he’ll hit a bit better next year, but I think WAR overstates his defensive value, so overall I’m bearish about the deal if he stays at second base — it’s not shaping up to be a disaster, but I certainly wouldn’t sign up to do it again. It’s a whole different story if the long-term plan is for Story to play shortstop.

 

[chawson]

I’d probably go with Whitlock and Houck as starters, and get the best controllable young starter we can acquire with prospects we are comfortable moving. I think it’s time to start cashing in on some draft capital but reasonable minds can disagree.

And again, I’m interested in bringing Wacha back, and maybe Eovaldi, on more reasonable, multi-year deals. I don’t think 1/$19 for each is ideal, especially not for Wacha. But maybe I’m misreading his market.

I'm with you on Whitlock in the rotation. Think the ship has sailed with Houck, which would be too bad, but we'll see.

I'm not against reasonable multi-year deals for Wacha and Eovaldi, but unless they're extended (which I think would've happened by now), the decision to offer a QO comes first. Broadly speaking though, I think a 1/$19 million contract is probably preferable to some front offices than something like 2/$28 million or 3/$36 million.

I will defend @scottyno to the extent this year’s injury was random. But perfect injury luck can’t be assumed either.

Story was previously a reasonably healthy player who played 140-145 games in a typical season. Assuming something like his current injury was going to happen at some point in the course of his 6-year deal, he needs to produce the hoped-for value in 125-130 games rather than 140-145. If we set the bar for year 1 of Story’s deal at 4 WAR (not expecting 24 WAR overall, but he will decline over the contract term), he was pacing a bit below that over 125-130 games before he got hurt. I think he’ll hit a bit better next year, but I think WAR overstates his defensive value, so overall I’m bearish about the deal if he stays at second base — it’s not shaping up to be a disaster, but I certainly wouldn’t sign up to do it again. It’s a whole different story if the long-term plan is for Story to play shortstop.

Why do you think WAR overstates his defensive value?

It makes sense that his defense would be more valuable next year, right? The banned shift should increase the number of defensive plays at second base, which has really dwindled in the last 10 years. There were 13,807 assists from second base in 2011; last year, there were only 11,486. That's a back-of-the-napkin assessment, but that means today's second basemen have 17 percent fewer plays than second basemen did a decade ago. I don't think that'll be restored overnight, but the domino effect of the banned shift should result in fewer plate appearances where batters try explicitly to avoid the shift, like fly balls from left-handed batters, whiffs, swings for the fences, opposite field strokes and so on. I'd argue that a good, athletic defensive second baseman could even be more valuable than he was ten years ago, because league wide exit velocities are higher now (requiring quicker reaction time) and there's a DH in the National League, which increases the balls in play in that circuit and increases team demand for hitters/position players.

I think Trevor Story is an all-star caliber player who battled bad injury luck and a number of other factors (late spring, illness, new baby) in a tough first year. I think he stays at second base and he'll be fine.

 

[scottyno]

But see, in the real world and not this hypothetical one you're making up, he's not a 4-WAR player. He's a 2.4 WAR player, starter quality but no more, because when all is said and done he'll have missed 60+ games. He also got off to a terrible start this year which didn't help.

To use your own words, I'd love to know the universe you're living in where a 2.4 WAR player is a good deal for 23.3M. Bad luck, injuries, fluke, whatever, he has been a an extremely poor return on investment this year.

Even by your skewed logic that somehow a guy who puts up 2.4 war in 94 games is only starter quality he still wasn't an "extremely poor return". The fact that in 94 games he still was pretty close to being worth his 2022 salary shows how good a season he actually had. But yeah, if he actually puts up 2.4 war a season over the length of his entire contract then it'll end up being slightly negative value, how likely do you think that is?

Also funny how now you've now decided to use an average salary to determine value and not how much the player earned in that season, unlike you did with Betts, wonder why?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Are we not fans of Baseball Trade Values anymore? They don’t seem to think much of Story, they have him with the most negative contract value on the team.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Even by your skewed logic that somehow a guy who puts up 2.4 war in 94 games is only starter quality he still wasn't an "extremely poor return". The fact that in 94 games he still was pretty close to being worth his 2022 salary shows how good a season he actually had. But yeah, if he actually puts up 2.4 war a season over the length of his entire contract then it'll end up being slightly negative value, how likely do you think that is?

Also funny how now you've now decided to use an average salary to determine value and not how much the player earned in that season, unlike you did with Betts, wonder why?

I am going to tell you as a Dope one last time: remove the personal vindictiveness from your posts. It's supremely obnoxious.

2.4 WAR for this year is a poor return on value given: he's getting paid to produce more, he's missed a ton of time and his offensive value has plateaued over the last couple of years. Because he's only played in 94 games that is getting lesser value from him than they are paying him for.

I used 23.3 million because that was the exact value in your post that I responded to. Those were your figures.

My last post on Story for now: he has missed 60 games with multiple injuries, he has put up a mere league-average offensive performance, and he is overpaid this year. Maybe those things will change going forward, but given that big FA deals often are values in the early years of their terms and not so much in the later years, this contract is off to an inauspicious start. If they move him to SS next year and let X walk, all current bets are off as his play there and the expected value will change dramatically.

 

[lexrageorge]

Are we not fans of Baseball Trade Values anymore? They don’t seem to think much of Story, they have him with the most negative contract value on the team.

The fact they don’t have Sale listed as the worst value makes their methodology dubious.

 

[Max Power]

In general I think WAR vastly overvalues defense versus offense. Teams generally agree with that since they're much more willing to carry players who can hit, but not field (the entire Phillies team), rather than the reverse. Story will need to see his offense come up some next year to actually be an All Star level player.

One thing that should really help him next year is the pickoff rules. He's really fast and also a good base stealer. He should be able to run at will when pitchers can't do much to keep him close.

 

[chrisfont9]

I know you weren't and I wasn't making those comments toward you. I understand that was Bloom's philosophy and it's one that I 1000% disagree with. Baseball is entertainment, I want to watch good ballplayers play good baseball. You can't always have a good team, but good players are fun. I stay up to watch Angels games on MLB Network when I know that Trout or Ohtani are coming to bat (or in Ohtani's case, pitching). It stinks that Angels aren't good, but that's not their fault.

Ah OK, understood, thanks

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The fact they don’t have Sale listed as the worst value makes their methodology dubious.

Trade value accounts for length of the contract and money owed. Sale has 2/45 plus an option left. Story has 5/115 plus an option left. If both guys suffer career ending injuries tomorrow, which is the more impactful to the team payroll?

 

[tims4wins]

Trade value accounts for length of the contract and money owed. Sale has 2/45 plus an option left. Story has 5/115 plus an option left. If both guys suffer career ending injuries tomorrow, which is the more harmful to the team payroll?

This proves it is a worthless measure as all it is saying is that Story has the most $$ left on his contract on the team. Duh.

 

[scottyno]

Being barely overpaid in a year where he missed 60-70 games should give everyone all the confidence in the world that he was a very solid signing who should be fine over the length of his contract, which really in the grand scheme isn't that big. If they move him to short that likely makes him more valuable, because it's a more important position, and they wouldn't move him there if they think his shoulder is shot.

Are we not fans of Baseball Trade Values anymore? They don’t seem to think much of Story, they have him with the most negative contract value on the team.

The fact that their "high estimate" still has him being well in the negatives looks pretty wonky. I wonder if they're just saying that he's going to repeat the 2.4 war for 6 years, which wouldn't make any sense, but otherwise I don't see how they get to him being projected to be that bad.

Looking back, I found that they had his 2021 preseason value alone 36m for his age 28 season, and now they somehow have his age 30-34 seasons being worth 89 combined. Maybe it's possible if you have an account there, but I wonder what they had his value at before this season started compared to what it is now.

edit: Looking at the "popular trades" part of his estimates page and somehow his future value changed from -40 on august 31st to -28 on september 15th, which also makes no sense.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This proves it is a worthless measure as all it is saying is that Story has the most $$ left on his contract on the team. Duh.

Yeah, and in the context of evaluating player's tradeability, it's going to be harder to move that bigger contract. Which is all BTV is trying to quantify. It's only worthless if you take it out of context.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah, and in the context of evaluating player's tradeability, it's going to be harder to move that bigger contract. Which is all BTV is trying to quantify. It's only worthless if you take it out of context.

Right. They also have zero other long term contracts remaining on the entire team. Story's competition for most untradeable contract on the Sox is himself and no one else because of this. But if you compare him to other teams, I doubt he's among the top 30 or maybe more untradeable players in baseball. In fact, I think most teams would probably take the remainder of his contract if they had the chance - if he went on waivers like Manny, I doubt all other teams would pass.

 

[moondog80]

If Story produces like this for the length of the contract with no dropoff, it will be a perfectly adequate use of resources, profitable even if he can stay on the field. The problem is there usually is a dropoff, and he is on the books for 5 more years. The K rate concerns me. He's never been a great contact guy, but 31% is pretty high, that's what it was even during his little hot streak when he came back from his injury. And unlike a lot of guys with high K rates, he doesn't have the high BB rate, he's right around league average.

In other words, we'll see. Year 1 wasn't a disaster but it wasn't a touchdown either. I suspect they'd have to eat a little bit of his contract if they tried to trade him.

 

[scottyno]

Yeah, and in the context of evaluating player's tradeability, it's going to be harder to move that bigger contract. Which is all BTV is trying to quantify. It's only worthless if you take it out of context.

Mike Trout, who has 8 years and 284m left on his contract is worth a positive value according to them, so I don't think tradeability is what they're trying to evaluate, considering in a realistic sense a contract that big would be nearly impossible to move.

 

[Ganthem]

We all know wrist injuries never linger, Nomar went to the Hall of Fame after his, after all.

Wait.....

Also, he's on the IL right now because of a heel injury. So he has a few things he's been dealing with.

So Bloom was suppose to know that Story was going to get hit on the wrist and not sign him? I am honestly trying to figure out your point here.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

There are a lot of questions and concerns about Story that seem legit; namely, can he play SS? If not, the value takes a hit. He was also pretty mediocre against RHP, which is concerning. I don’t think they got him for “under market value”; it seems quite likely that they got him for market value, given how free agency works. It seems reasonable that his value right now is less than it was a year ago, of course that could change a lot over the next year depending on how the free agent market develops, whether he can play SS (if needed to), and how he plays next year. I think the majority are cautiously optimistic, while he wasn’t great this year the team was certainly much better when he was playing.

 

[mikcou]

I don't think catching is a job you can parachute into in September. It's basically the only position on the team where you have to know a bunch of other guys on the team really well in order to help. Sure, the Sox can bring in a couple new guys because who cares, but a playoff team probably doesn't want to do that for a marginal upgrade.

This was on the hypothetical that he was cut 4-6 weeks ago. I'd still tend to agree, but I dont think its some absurd idea that Plawecki may have caught on with a contender if he was available for free in mid August.

I'm with you on Whitlock in the rotation. Think the ship has sailed with Houck, which would be too bad, but we'll see.

I'm not against reasonable multi-year deals for Wacha and Eovaldi, but unless they're extended (which I think would've happened by now), the decision to offer a QO comes first. Broadly speaking though, I think a 1/$19 million contract is probably preferable to some front offices than something like 2/$28 million or 3/$36 million.



Why do you think WAR overstates his defensive value?

It makes sense that his defense would be more valuable next year, right? The banned shift should increase the number of defensive plays at second base, which has really dwindled in the last 10 years. There were 13,807 assists from second base in 2011; last year, there were only 11,486. That's a back-of-the-napkin assessment, but that means today's second basemen have 17 percent fewer plays than second basemen did a decade ago. I don't think that'll be restored overnight, but the domino effect of the banned shift should result in fewer plate appearances where batters try explicitly to avoid the shift, like fly balls from left-handed batters, whiffs, swings for the fences, opposite field strokes and so on. I'd argue that a good, athletic defensive second baseman could even be more valuable than he was ten years ago, because league wide exit velocities are higher now (requiring quicker reaction time) and there's a DH in the National League, which increases the balls in play in that circuit and increases team demand for hitters/position players.

Edit: Put another way, that extrapolation would be consistent with many of Dustin Pedroia's years (he had two-three years where he was truly elite; otherwise was a +10ish DRS guy). As someone who watched both of them, I do not think that is an accurate projection for Story (or even assessment of his play this year)

I think Trevor Story is an all-star caliber player who battled bad injury luck and a number of other factors (late spring, illness, new baby) in a tough first year. I think he stays at second base and he'll be fine.

Story's defense was all over the place in Colorado at short - over his career he was slightly above average, but he had years where he was below average and years where advanced stats had him at close to elite defensive play at short. Extrapolating to 150 games would put his 2022 performance at second in line with his second best defensive performance ever, at a less important position. Given the smaller sample size of defensive statistics, his historical play, and his age, it strikes me as a pretty unreasonable bet that he would maintain defensive value consistent with an extrapolated 2022 over the next 3-4 years.

Maybe he really is so much of a better fit at second that his best defensive performances will come there in his 30s rather than at short in his mid 20s, but I would be betting hard against it.

 

[joe dokes]

All of them, come on. You really think you know how an MLB roster works better than these guys?

Although that's not quite what I said (the roster limit change for the first time in a million years is a bit short of "how a roster works"),More than zero of them, though.