Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

Deathofthebambino

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This is a good chart.

Do the implications include that those other guys suck too? Might be news to them, especially PG who's averaging 28 on 60% TS.
JB is is averaging 26.7ppg on 60% TS also.

Of course, we'll probably trade him straight up for Beal, because Marcus doesn't like JB and Tatum loves Beal. Beal is playing at a solid 24.3ppg on 46.8& TS thus far. Beal is averaging 4.5apg to Jaylen's 2.5apg, so i guess there's that. Of course, Beal also has the highest usage rate in the entire NBA at 35.4% thus far.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So about what you'd expect, Schroder is a probable starting PG level passer, Smart is a bench PG, Tatum is a mediocre passing wing, Brown isn't a playmaker
Brown is 88th, not 138th. Doesn't change much though.

Tatum receives 50.6 passes and makes 45.4 per game.
Jaylen receives 44.0 passes and makes 33.7.

Smart is at 48.3 and 49.8 DS 49.3 and 56.4.

I'm not sure these numbers tell you much of anything though because Doncic is at 71.0/56.2 and Young is at 74.3/55.6.
 

NomarsFool

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Smart's defense seems most of the way back this year... but I agree, his offensive limitations are getting worse not better. Come January I think you have to aggressively shop him.
I'm not a big Smart fan, at all, but his ability to come up with clutch defensive plays is pretty amazing - I'd say. Somehow he is able to find a way to come up with huge steals in the last few minutes or a key charge, etc. It seems like he's had quite a few of these this year.

Offensively, though, agreed - he's pathetic.

In addition, I think he's had a lot of turnovers this year by trying to be too cute with no look passes and so forth.
 

mcpickl

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So the team should have let Jaylen talk thereby escalating a public calling out that never should have been public in the first place?

The team not letting JB talk makes total sense. Letting him talk and potentially nuking the season makes no sense.
Yes.

Your stars talk after a shit show game like that.

They are all stars. They are highly paid. They want this to be their team.

You stand up and take the arrows when they come.

You don't hide in the training room.

And if the team pulled him/them out of talking, that's worse.

Al talked followed by Smart who made his comments. It's entirely foreseeable why the team would then pull Jaylen to not throw gas on a potential fire. It makes lots of sense.
I mean, if this were true I feel a whole lot worse about this team going forward.

If they think their two stars can't take light criticism from a teammate, this team has no shot going forward.

I thought everyone here was so horny that coach Brad was gone and now the players were going to be held accountable!

They can't even talk after a game? Gotta be protected from Chris Forsberg and Gary Washburn?

Embarrassing if true.
 

teddykgb

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What exactly is talking going to solve? They have plenty of problems on the court the off court media drama is completely unimportant
 

Jimbodandy

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JB is is averaging 26.7ppg on 60% TS also.

Of course, we'll probably trade him straight up for Beal, because Marcus doesn't like JB and Tatum loves Beal. Beal is playing at a solid 24.3ppg on 46.8& TS thus far. Beal is averaging 4.5apg to Jaylen's 2.5apg, so i guess there's that. Of course, Beal also has the highest usage rate in the entire NBA at 35.4% thus far.
I agree with your overall take on this, and others'. I wish that JB and JT were better at sharing the ball. It would make everyone a little better, including themselves.

But if we had 2 guys averaging 26ppg on 60%, this thread would have a dozen posts in it, and we'd be the 1 seed.
 

mcpickl

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What exactly is talking going to solve? They have plenty of problems on the court the off court media drama is completely unimportant
It's what leaders do.

Do Tatum and Brown want to lead the team and have their teammates follow them? Or do they just want to make their money, jack shots and put up numbers? If it's the latter, then fine don't talk.

Part of the job is you take the slings and arrows from the media after awful games, and don't use the guys you're supposed to be leading to be your shields.

These guys have no problems taking questions when things are going well, where are they at when things are going poorly?
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Periodic reminder that ducking the media after a loss is one of those things that actually is a big deal, at least within a locker room. Would you like it if you had to answer a bunch of questions about something your co-worker messed up?

I’m not knowledgeable about basketball, and you all follow this team more closely than I do, but from an outsider’s perspective, it kind of seems like these guys might not like each other too much? Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe it doesn’t matter.
 

sezwho

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I wonder how much their bad shooting is hurting each other's assist totals.
I was wondering the same and will look for the post Cellar Door referenced (I genuinely do read the thread but I genuinely could have walked right past it). I kept thinking that if just the Cs icy 1/33 stretch from 3 was instead a warm 14/33 alone it would be much better.

Point stands though, nobody is making anyone better out there.

Fwiw, if we continue to stagnate the direction should be all in for a real pg. In this case ‘all in’ means essentially anything but the Js and whatever remains in stay competitive. If the opportunity warrants I’ll pack in a couple draft picks as well.

Lowry was my pipe dream but even Rubio would be fine…just someone whose primary skill set & goals align to making players like the Js better. If it doesn’t work then blow it up.
 

Tony C

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It's what leaders do.

Do Tatum and Brown want to lead the team and have their teammates follow them? Or do they just want to make their money, jack shots and put up numbers? If it's the latter, then fine don't talk.

Part of the job is you take the slings and arrows from the media after awful games, and don't use the guys you're supposed to be leading to be your shields.

These guys have no problems taking questions when things are going well, where are they at when things are going poorly?
This wasn't a macho showdown with the media that he hid from. Smart fanned the flames with some inflammatory finger pointing (and, in my opinion stupid as it's rarely productive to criticize teammates publicly). Not sending him out there until the team has a confab and settles things in the lockerroom or, at least, comes up with a company line seems like smart management. I assume if it had just been about a bad game #7 of the season he'd have trotted out there, as seems to have been the plan. Given that Smart ambushed everyone with those comments, smart to take a moment to let it cool down and figure out how to respond. If in the heat of the moment J had responded in kind pointing out Smart's failures, lack of assists, bad shooting...that'd be a spiral downhill.

Agree or disagree on that media management strategy, I don't really see this as fitting into a coddled star hiding from media criticism mode -- seems quite a stretch to pose it as such.
 

NomarsFool

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This wasn't a macho showdown with the media that he hid from. Smart fanned the flames with some inflammatory finger pointing (and, in my opinion stupid as it's rarely productive to criticize teammates publicly). Not sending him out there until the team has a confab and settles things in the lockerroom or, at least, comes up with a company line seems like smart management. I assume if it had just been about a bad game #7 of the season he'd have trotted out there, as seems to have been the plan. Given that Smart ambushed everyone with those comments, smart to take a moment to let it cool down and figure out how to respond. If in the heat of the moment J had responded in kind pointing out Smart's failures, lack of assists, bad shooting...that'd be a spiral downhill.

Agree or disagree on that media management strategy, I don't really see this as fitting into a coddled star hiding from media criticism mode -- seems quite a stretch to pose it as such.
Agreed
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's what leaders do.

Do Tatum and Brown want to lead the team and have their teammates follow them? Or do they just want to make their money, jack shots and put up numbers? If it's the latter, then fine don't talk.

Part of the job is you take the slings and arrows from the media after awful games, and don't use the guys you're supposed to be leading to be your shields.

These guys have no problems taking questions when things are going well, where are they at when things are going poorly?
I understand your sentiment but no PR professional is going to let JB go out there. First of all, while I'm not familiar with what happens post-game, I dount they are broadcasting the presser into the Cs locker room. Maybe I'm wrong but I doubt that that JB even heard what Marcus said. Sending him out there cold would be professional malpractice.

Even if JB had heard what Marcus said - or someone briefed him before he met the press - you wouldn't want JB to take questions without having a chance to figure out how to react to it, maybe give JB a chance to talk to Marcus.

Sure maybe some players insist on going out there but to me, the likelihood is that things get worse, not better if t.at were to happen.

I'm sure every exec in the Cs front office was telling JB there's no reason to go out. Because there wasn't.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's what leaders do.

Do Tatum and Brown want to lead the team and have their teammates follow them? Or do they just want to make their money, jack shots and put up numbers? If it's the latter, then fine don't talk.

Part of the job is you take the slings and arrows from the media after awful games, and don't use the guys you're supposed to be leading to be your shields.

These guys have no problems taking questions when things are going well, where are they at when things are going poorly?
I don’t think either are comfortable in an NBA leadership role. They are still kids. I’m guessing it’s pretty well established that Smart and Horford occupy the leadership roles in that locker room. I’d be surprised to learn otherwise. That doesn’t mean they are selfish and only care about jacking up shots……it only means that these kids aren’t established as the locker room leaders.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I just read that the Celtics has exactly ZERO defensive rebounds in the 4Q against the Bulls. That is nearly impossible.
 

radsoxfan

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I just read that the Celtics has exactly ZERO defensive rebounds in the 4Q against the Bulls. That is nearly impossible.
Bulls went 13-16 from the field. Only 3 missed shots and the Bulls got them. A tour de force of ineptitude.

Last time this happened was the Suns December 2015. 6 years ago. That's a lot of 4th quarters... at least we witnessed history!
 
Jaylen Brown went to the Cobb County high school that I would have attended had I not gone to a private school. I keep wondering if there's a Hawks-Celtics trade that might make sense for both teams centered around Jaylen - probably a 2-for-1 mini-consolidation that would give you guys more depth and maybe help facilitate a more fluid offensive system.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Jay King has an interesting stat in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2929332/2021/11/02/pressure-mounts-for-celtics-after-terrible-fourth-quarter-collapse-we-relaxed-and-got-lazy-acted-like-the-game-was-over/?source=emp_shared_article

Regardless of Smart’s comments, the Celtics’ bigger problem has been what happens when Tatum and/or Brown hit the bench. They have outscored opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions with both All-Stars on the court, but have deteriorated in other situations. Even staggering the two wings hasn’t helped much. The Celtics are getting bludgeoned by 20.4 points per 100 possessions with Tatum on the court, but not Brown, and by 9.3 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the court, but not Tatum. Over 130 minutes without Brown in the lineup this season, the Celtics have been destroyed by an incredible 59 points. Their net rating of -22.2 with him on the bench is unforgivable.
The last bit might be overly influenced by Brown's injuries and garbage time, but this is not the simple story about 2 stars who can't play together.

Maybe right now the thing to do is not stagger Brown and Tatum as much? Come up with a workable bench lineup eithout them (Schroder-Horford-Richardson and 2 of Grant, Romeo, Pritchard, Nesmith).

Karalis had a comment about Marcus' comments:
View: https://twitter.com/RedsArmy_John/status/1455603078716084227?s=20

John Karalis: Rewatching the 4th quarter from last night and, frankly, I don't know what Marcus Smart was talking about. I'm at 4:00 left and Tatum & Brown were passing out of double teams the whole quarter to this point.
 
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I just read that the Celtics has exactly ZERO defensive rebounds in the 4Q against the Bulls. That is nearly impossible.
Worse than the C's fourth-quarter rebounding was their defense. The Bulls missed only three shots in the whole quarter. THREE! Chicago came up with two offensive rebounds and a team rebound.
 

RorschachsMask

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This was from early in the 4th, but Grant missed the look. Yeah Tatum needs to make quicker decisions when he is dealing with the constant stream of traps, but we really need to put some shooting out there with him. This is what happens almost any time he puts the ball down. I know Schroder and Richardson have hit at decent percentages so far, but I think Pritchard and ideally Nesmith (if he can earn back minutes) should be part of the Tatum+bench lineups. I also think Tatum and Schroder’s minutes should be staggered somewhat, don’t love them playing big minutes together.

 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jaylen Brown went to the Cobb County high school that I would have attended had I not gone to a private school. I keep wondering if there's a Hawks-Celtics trade that might make sense for both teams centered around Jaylen - probably a 2-for-1 mini-consolidation that would give you guys more depth and maybe help facilitate a more fluid offensive system.
Who else would you send with Trae?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jay King has an interesting stat in the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/2929332/2021/11/02/pressure-mounts-for-celtics-after-terrible-fourth-quarter-collapse-we-relaxed-and-got-lazy-acted-like-the-game-was-over/?source=emp_shared_article

The last bit might be overly influenced by Brown's injuries and garbage time, but this is not the simple story about 2 stars who can't play together.

Maybe right now the thing to do is not stagger Brown and Tatum as much? Come up with a workable bench lineup eithout them (Schroder-Horford-Richardson and 2 of Grant, Romeo, Pritchard, Nesmith).

Karalis had a comment about Marcus' comments:
View: https://twitter.com/RedsArmy_John/status/1455603078716084227?s=20

John Karalis: Rewatching the 4th quarter from last night and, frankly, I don't know what Marcus Smart was talking about. I'm at 4:00 left and Tatum & Brown were passing out of double teams the whole quarter to this point.
Start a smaller lineup and play TL off the bench. He gets shorter minutes (20-24) that are more energetic instead of pacing himself as a full-time starter. We get to put another shooter on the floor with Tatum while also improving our struggling second unit. This has never been rocket science since the preseason Ime.
 

benhogan

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Jaylen Brown went to the Cobb County high school that I would have attended had I not gone to a private school. I keep wondering if there's a Hawks-Celtics trade that might make sense for both teams centered around Jaylen - probably a 2-for-1 mini-consolidation that would give you guys more depth and maybe help facilitate a more fluid offensive system.
Collins/Huerter would be a good starting point
 

RorschachsMask

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Bogdan/Collins/Huerter for Jaylen/Smart/filler after the season is something I’d do, but the Hawks wouldn’t.

Trae/Smart/Jaylen/Gallo/Capela would be pretty tough, though.
 

reggiecleveland

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This was from early in the 4th, but Grant missed the look. Yeah Tatum needs to make quicker decisions when he is dealing with the constant stream of traps, but we really need to put some shooting out there with him. This is what happens almost any time he puts the ball down. I know Schroder and Richardson have hit at decent percentages so far, but I think Pritchard and ideally Nesmith (if he can earn back minutes) should be part of the Tatum+bench lineups. I also think Tatum and Schroder’s minutes should be staggered somewhat, don’t love them playing big minutes together.
Or he could throw the ball into Al and Grant cuts for a dunk?
 

RorschachsMask

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Or he could throw the ball into Al and Grant cuts for a dunk?
Sure, but there’s no space between Tatum and Al, so if he threw the ball in there it almost certainly would have been a turnover.

I’d like if the offense was more creative too, but it’s not the case so far.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Regardless of Smart’s comments, the Celtics’ bigger problem has been what happens when Tatum and/or Brown hit the bench. They have outscored opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions with both All-Stars on the court, but have deteriorated in other situations. Even staggering the two wings hasn’t helped much. The Celtics are getting bludgeoned by 20.4 points per 100 possessions with Tatum on the court, but not Brown, and by 9.3 points per 100 possessions with Brown on the court, but not Tatum. Over 130 minutes without Brown in the lineup this season, the Celtics have been destroyed by an incredible 59 points. Their net rating of -22.2 with him on the bench is unforgivable.
I assume a good part of that on-off has to do with the blow-out in TOR and the 4Q of CHI.

From my eyes, the bench has been basically okay but nothing better than that. So if JT is going to continue to shoot 40% from the field and 27% from 3P, the Cs are going to continue to get bludgeoned when it's JT and the gang and it's going to be a long season. But I'd hope that the bench would be better than OK.

I'm most surprised that Hermangomez has only gotten 9 minutes this season. I know he's not a great 3P shooter but I thought at times the Cs could use his length and energy.
 

Jimbodandy

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Worse than the C's fourth-quarter rebounding was their defense. The Bulls missed only three shots in the whole quarter. THREE! Chicago came up with two offensive rebounds and a team rebound.
Yeah exactly. I think that this story is misstated as "Celtics can't grab a fucking rebound". The story should be "Celtics force 3 missed field goals in 12 minutes".
 

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Shouldnt the pass be Richardson? Easier pass.

Its then on Rich to swing to Dennis...(While Grant slides to the corner) who then hits Grant in the corner.

No Way #5 leaves Horford and no way #6 doesnt close on Richardson and then Dennis.

A cross court pass out of a triple team seems ill advised.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I assume a good part of that on-off has to do with the blow-out in TOR and the 4Q of CHI.

From my eyes, the bench has been basically okay but nothing better than that. So if JT is going to continue to shoot 40% from the field and 27% from 3P, the Cs are going to continue to get bludgeoned when it's JT and the gang and it's going to be a long season. But I'd hope that the bench would be better than OK.

I'm most surprised that Hermangomez has only gotten 9 minutes this season. I know he's not a great 3P shooter but I thought at times the Cs could use his length and energy.
Hernangomez is a really bad basketball player.
 

reggiecleveland

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Sure, but there’s no space between Tatum and Al, so if he threw the ball in there it almost certainly would have been a turnover.

I’d like if the offense was more creative too, but it’s not the case so far.
There's enough. Al is deep in the post. Lost art of just throwing it inside when it isn't an actual post ISO.

To be fair there would be hundreds of pics of Bird shooting over a double, just he made more of them.
 

RorschachsMask

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There's enough. Al is deep in the post. Lost art of just throwing it inside when it isn't an actual post ISO.

To be fair there would be hundreds of pics of Bird shooting over a double, just he made more of them.
Tatum passed that, Grant just missed the three. Moreso, my point was Ime should have more shooting out there with Tatum.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Shouldnt the pass be Richardson? Easier pass.

Its then on Rich to swing to Dennis...(While Grant slides to the corner) who then hits Grant in the corner.

No Way #5 leaves Horford and no way #6 doesnt close on Richardson and then Dennis.

A cross court pass out of a triple team seems ill advised.
The skip pass is going to create an open 3 so if it’s there that is the correct pass. Once Grant accepts, Caruso will slide over leaving Schroder wide open for a 3.

If the pass went to JR, Caruso will be quick to rotate over on the catch, Jones will then jump outside of the paint as Bradley drops back onto Horford and LaVine slides over to shade the next pass to Grant. The only thing JR would be able to do is swing it to Schroder but Jones would already have that covered with Zach ready to jump out on Grant.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Hernangomez is a really bad basketball player.
Maybe he's bad at offense (particularly shooting although he's reputed to be the best cutter on the Cs IIRC) or maybe he can't guard anyone on the perimeter but playing Grant at all backup big minutes also seems less than ideal to me as well.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, that was a good pass out of a triple for a wide open 3, that's a good play by Tatum, Grant just bricked the wide open 3 because he's not very good.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, that was a good pass out of a triple for a wide open 3, that's a good play by Tatum, Grant just bricked the wide open 3 because he's not very good.
I wish this was a video clip. I’m interested in Caruso’s response to the pass. Did he challenge the shot or hedge against the pass to Schroder for the open 3? I don’t recall the play.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He didn’t take that shot though? He passed it to Grant.
Grant didn't shoot. He rotated the ball to DS, who missed.

I wish this was a video clip. I’m interested in Caruso’s response to the pass. Did he challenge the shot or hedge against the pass to Schroder for the open 3? I don’t recall the play.
Caruso went to GW, who moved the ball. DS was wiiiiiiiiiide open and bricked it. Here's the play https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=504&GameID=0022100098&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=MISS Schroder 29' 3PT Jump Shot&sct=plot

Lots of standing around on that play.

edit: no way is that a "29 foot shot" by DS.
 

RorschachsMask

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Grant didn't shoot. He rotated the ball to DS, who missed.


Caruso went to GW, who moved the ball. DS was wiiiiiiiiiide open and bricked it. Here's the play https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=504&GameID=0022100098&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=MISS Schroder 29' 3PT Jump Shot&sct=plot

Lots of standing around on that play.
Damnit my memory failed me, and I took the picture myself when rewatching the quarter last night (it was painful).

Just confused as to why Reggie keeps saying Tatum shouldn’t have taken the shot, as he didn’t take it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Grant didn't shoot. He rotated the ball to DS, who missed.


Caruso went to GW, who moved the ball. DS was wiiiiiiiiiide open and bricked it. Here's the play https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=504&GameID=0022100098&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=MISS Schroder 29' 3PT Jump Shot&sct=plot

Lots of standing around on that play.

edit: no way is that a "29 foot shot" by DS.
Well there ya go. That’s ideal offensive execution for an open shot. Tatum and Grant made the correct passes and Schroder simply missed the open look.

Edit:Watched the video. This is a perfect example to illustrate how difficult it is to get off clean shots in today’s NBA. We did everything correct and Jones STILL contested Schroder’s 3! The defense also rotated perfectly except Jones was a hair slow in rotating out to the 3 by hesitating prior to jumping out. This is another example in what I preach about this game being instinctual and not one where you can think prior to reacting. Jones should know exactly what his rotation assignment should be without having to stop to think.
 
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RorschachsMask

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Well there ya go. That’s ideal offensive execution for an open shot. Tatum and Grant made the correct passes and Schroder simply missed the open look.
Which leads back to what I am asking for, and you posted a bit ago. Need more shooting out there with Tatum.

I think Schroder/Al should be playing more with Jaylen, who isn’t as natural of a playmaker as Tatum, and is much more of an off ball guy. Instead you have Tatum out there with Schroder a ton, when both of them are at their best when on ball. I think it should be split up like this

Al/Schroder/Grant out there with Jaylen led lineups, and Rob/Smart/Pritchard (maybe Nesmith if he can settle down) out there with Tatum. Besides the switch everything defense, my biggest issue with Ime so far is poor balancing of the lineups. Richardson deserves minutes too, just didn’t name him as he fits into either type of lineup.
 

Jimbodandy

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Which leads back to what I am asking for, and you posted a bit ago. Need more shooting out there with Tatum.

I think Schroder/Al should be playing more with Jaylen, who isn’t as natural of a playmaker as Tatum, and is much more of an off ball guy. Instead you have Tatum out there with Schroder a ton, when both of them are at their best when on ball. I think it should be split up like this

Al/Schroder/Grant out there with Jaylen led lineups, and Rob/Smart/Pritchard (maybe Nesmith if he can settle down) out there with Tatum. Besides the switch everything defense, my biggest issue with Ime so far is poor balancing of the lineups. Richardson deserves minutes too, just didn’t name him as he fits into either type of lineup.
I like this a lot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Which leads back to what I am asking for, and you posted a bit ago. Need more shooting out there with Tatum.

I think Schroder/Al should be playing more with Jaylen, who isn’t as natural of a playmaker as Tatum, and is much more of an off ball guy. Instead you have Tatum out there with Schroder a ton, when both of them are at their best when on ball. I think it should be split up like this

Al/Schroder/Grant out there with Jaylen led lineups, and Rob/Smart/Pritchard (maybe Nesmith if he can settle down) out there with Tatum. Besides the switch everything defense, my biggest issue with Ime so far is poor balancing of the lineups. Richardson deserves minutes too, just didn’t name him as he fits into either type of lineup.
I’m giving Brad a complete roster construction pass as a first-year GM in a new job. I felt he did well under these circumstances regardless of where the results land. Having said that…..there were close to 100 qualified 3-pt shooters who connected at 38% or higher. Man, we need to get us some Bagdanovich, Grayson Allen, Bertans, Monk, Brunson, Melton-types of guys by next fall.
 

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Tatum is better at catching off cuts, and having others facilitate. His belief he is best when pounding the ball is the big reason we are where we are. He is no Bird, so big deal he isn't a coin flip with Lebron as best Small F ever. If he even late career Bird the team is a tile contender. But his scoring compares well with Bird, big shooter, can shoot over small, guy post, get to the rim. But he wants to be Kobe play like a 2.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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I’m giving Brad a complete roster construction pass as a first-year GM in a new job. I felt he did well under these circumstances regardless of where the results land. Having said that…..there were close to 100 qualified 3-pt shooters who connected at 38% or higher. Man, we need to get us some Bagdanovich, Grayson Allen, Bertans, Monk, Brunson, Melton-types of guys by next fall.
DS is shooting at 37.5%, GW at 47.6% (and dropping!); and JRich at 36.8%.

The issue to me is that the Cs need shooters with more gravity. I'm not sure how you measure that but the fact that CHI could play 5 guys on one floor is an indication to me that the Cs don't have enough of it.

Which is I guess where Nesmith comes in.