This is a theoretical case that has simply not played out empirically this year.
Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season
- Thread starter Imbricus
- Start date
Agreed. I think that there's a ton of variables there, mostly that Tatum can't shoot the 3 anymore.
Some might say that those things are related, but that's crazy talk. Tatum isn't just taking and missing step backs. He's missing everything.
But our eyes tell us that this team is easier to stop with opponents can just pinch the top with cheat/help defense. Fucking 2-3 is derailing this offense. Some of that is on Ime, but getting to the rim is good for business. I'd rather have 3 guys who know how to do that than 2.
DS was -12 in the minutes he played. From memory, he was getting switched on to Nurkic and that did not go well. Thus Ime's saying he wanted more "size."
From memory, DS has either been very good or very not good. Yes he's won several games for us but it seems like he's been a main culprit in some losses as well. PDX was not good Schroder; I personally didn't blame Ime from going away from him. YMMV.
PG less lineup worked quite well in the second quarter, so Ime went back to it in the 4th. You can argue in hindsight that he should have recognized it wasn't working sooner and gone away from it, but if we had hit a few more shots down the stretch we're probably not even having this conversation.
When the C's were up 11, DS was a C's worse -13 and RL was a C"s best +34 or +36. The game thread was also talking about how much they liked the lineup with RL at the point and no one was asking for DS. Once the lead evaporated, it became "Why the hell isn't DS in there?"
Here's the thing, put the JAYs at their historical 3pt% + add a HC that doesn't go catatonic in Q4 and this team is Top4 in the EC. Just imagine if the JAYs shot 40%+ from 3 (where they were trending until this season) they'd be contenders in +/- differential
It's not Dennis' fault they are below .500. So that's why I don't get the hate.
Even the rest of the roster is somewhat fine (needs improvement/development). Grant/JRich have added value. TL is very good when playing. Horford would be good as a back-up 5 instead of a (sWing). Even Freedom as a small minute/situational 3rd string BIG has advantages. Of course, IME gets the least out of this roster on a nightly basis.
Getting a +ballhandler/PG is Brad's #1 job, but not sure we'll get a different outcome with IME as the HC & if the JAYs continue to shoot so poorly from 3. Those are the two biggest levers with this team.
It's not Dennis' fault they are below .500. So that's why I don't get the hate.
Even the rest of the roster is somewhat fine (needs improvement/development). Grant/JRich have added value. TL is very good when playing. Horford would be good as a back-up 5 instead of a (sWing). Even Freedom as a small minute/situational 3rd string BIG has advantages. Of course, IME gets the least out of this roster on a nightly basis.
Getting a +ballhandler/PG is Brad's #1 job, but not sure we'll get a different outcome with IME as the HC & if the JAYs continue to shoot so poorly from 3. Those are the two biggest levers with this team.
Scal's commentary and the board discussion went to why is Tatum going into no pace, no actions, pound the ball, coma-ISO PG mode at the top, while being gassed after playing the entire 4th
GW missed a pretty open 3P from the corner. RL missed a wide open 3P from the wrong side of the floor. RL was wide open when he stepped out of bounds. JB had two possessions where he got the ball, dribbled aimlessly, and then hoisted up a prayer.
Scal has mentioned this a couple of times but to me the Cs biggest problem is that the Cs don't have an offensive identity. Every other good teams knows exactly what it needs to do when it needs a bucket. (Typically, that's putting the ball in the hands of their best player at that player's favorite spot on the floor, who will either score or demand a double-team and distribute). The Cs don't really have that identity and in particular this year when JT is shooting so poorly.
I don't think anyone is blameless - from coaching or roster or execution. But to me, that's priority #1. Ime has to figure out who is going to close and then build the rotations from there.
I haven't re-watched the game but to me JT stopped playing fast not because he was gassed but because PDX threw doubles at him and JT took some time to figure out where the ball should go.
I think Ime's biggest flaw to date is how long it takes him to adjust. These are usually the type of coaches who get outcoached hard come the playoffs.
The Dennis hate comes from the fact the C's need a +ballhandler/PG. That was supposed to be him.
It's almost like in game adjustments could be a real thing. Maybe whether DS being in or not doesn't really matter and Ime was in a damned if you do, damned if you don't spot. The bottom line is both of the Jays stunk in the 4th and this team simply isn't good enough (even against the very bottom of the league) when neither of them can convert a bucket.
Forgive me, but it seemed like they got abused down low by Nurkic anyway. He's way too big for this Celtics team. But playing Schroder versus not playing Schroder... I think a lot of these minutiae miss the real issue -- the main issue so far. Which is that Tatum and Brown both shot pretty poorly from long range, even as they collected a lot of free throws. Maybe Schroder in there gets them a couple more open shots, maybe not. Maybe he breaks Nurkic down on a switch. Maybe he passes to Tatum or Brown or Horford and they brick another three pointer. Maybe the fact that Tatum and Brown were stinking up the joint is precisely why they could've used Schroder out there.
Bottom line is so far in the season Tatum and Brown are shooting like Julius Randle and RJ Barrett, only on greater volume. If they'd had even a slightly less rough game from three -- 2 more threes, even -- they would've won. Horford's continued inability to offer anything from long-range is also making the two-big lineup a struggle. Teams are straight-up leaving Horford to shoot.
I'm agnostic on the playing time stuff. It seems some nights like Ime ought to give guys even a one or two minute break. It seemed like Tatum could have used one last night. On the other hand, the Blazers players got nearly as many minutes, and in general their starters played more.
Yeah, this is the problem with Ime's defense. It works when the starts are in -- Marcus can hold off a center for a minute after a switch. When you get to Schroder or PP, though, those switches kill you every time. Schroder became unplayable because he kept getting switched onto a center with Al guarding CJ on the perimeter. The defense needed to adjust to fit the players, and it didn't.
Wasn't that supposed to be Marcus?
Dennis fell on their lap, is on a cheap 1yr deal, 99% gone by next season and isn't even their starting PG when the roster is fully healthy
You can't rationally hate the backup PG that is your 3rd scorer.
go back and watch the last 7 minutes (if you have the stomach for it). I just did.
I more than stand by my comments above on ISO Coma PG, ball bouncing from gassed Tatum
God damn Grant played great defense those last 7 minutes on Nurkic
If that was the plan, it was a stupid plan. It's also easier to hate on the guy leaving in a year (DS) than the guy here for another 4 (Smart).
yep going after Lonzo or another PG option would have been much better. We've been discussing the need for a PG since Danny shopped Kemba hard after the bubble.
Agreed, neither Smart or DS are good choices for PG of the future
Yeah, there's plenty of hate to go around this year. Only guy escaping any real criticism is Brad Stevens.
What's distressing a lot of people on this board is that Tatum and Brown both appear to have regressed in their game and... what if this is it? I vainly hoped Tatum and Brown would both improve as playmakers, and that playing with Al Horford would help. That has not happened.
I'm hopeful this year is a hiccup in their development, and they'll both continue to get better. Tatum's shooting in particular seems very very unlikely to continue to be this bad. I am encouraged that they're both getting to the line better.
Other thoughts. Al averaging only 26 mins/game in his last 11. The right move by the coaching staff, although I worry it comes too late.
Having Smart, Tatum and Horford bricking more than a third of the team's threes is killing us. Nearly 700 of the Celtics ~1700 threes have been by those three, and they're shooting like 30%. Their three point shooting is a crevasse and the whole team has fallen into it.
I'm hopeful this year is a hiccup in their development, and they'll both continue to get better. Tatum's shooting in particular seems very very unlikely to continue to be this bad. I am encouraged that they're both getting to the line better.
Other thoughts. Al averaging only 26 mins/game in his last 11. The right move by the coaching staff, although I worry it comes too late.
Having Smart, Tatum and Horford bricking more than a third of the team's threes is killing us. Nearly 700 of the Celtics ~1700 threes have been by those three, and they're shooting like 30%. Their three point shooting is a crevasse and the whole team has fallen into it.
Oddly enough, the C's are hitting 3's at a 35.1% clip in January, good for 14th.
32.1% in October
32.8% in November
34.2% in December
This is despite Tatum being at .243 for January and Brown being at .372 (which is fine, but below his career average).
32.1% in October
32.8% in November
34.2% in December
This is despite Tatum being at .243 for January and Brown being at .372 (which is fine, but below his career average).
If this is it for the Jays, it's going to be a long decade. Look at the Thunder.
I think one reason I'm optimistic about Tatum is that while his 3pt shot has disappeared he not only hasn't regressed elsewhere there is a good case this has been his best year in everything but 3pt shooting.
Jaylen is more concerning, history handle has gone missing and his defense has slipped
Jaylen is more concerning, history handle has gone missing and his defense has slipped
Tatum led the team to a blowout win today with his fifth career 50-point game, one more than the Legend.
His line: 18-28, 9-14 from three and from two. Perfect 6-6 at the line. 10 rebounds and 7 assists. Just one turnover.
He had 31 at the half and 48 after three.
Smart was back. Looked rusty, cranked up too many shots at one point, and had 4 turnovers. But he also had 6 assits and 4 steals and was a team high +26.
His best play of the game was a notable one: Smart as inbounding the ball from the end-line, from the right side just outside the paint near the C's offensive basket, with 2.7 seconds left on the shot clock. The guy covering the inbounds pass (Avdija) turns his back to Smart to double Tatum, and Smart passes it to himself off Avdija's back and lays it in.
View: https://twitter.com/Marc_DAmico/status/1485373127924359177?s=20
Marc Damico: This was very Smart
Brown shot poorly again (5-18), but helped himself by at least going 4-9 from three, and was the other C with a double-double (18 and 10).
Rob had a Rob game: 8 points 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks.
The bench was mostly quiet. Grant went for 10 and 7, Schroder went for 7 points, 5 assists, no one else scored outside of garbage time.
His line: 18-28, 9-14 from three and from two. Perfect 6-6 at the line. 10 rebounds and 7 assists. Just one turnover.
He had 31 at the half and 48 after three.
Smart was back. Looked rusty, cranked up too many shots at one point, and had 4 turnovers. But he also had 6 assits and 4 steals and was a team high +26.
His best play of the game was a notable one: Smart as inbounding the ball from the end-line, from the right side just outside the paint near the C's offensive basket, with 2.7 seconds left on the shot clock. The guy covering the inbounds pass (Avdija) turns his back to Smart to double Tatum, and Smart passes it to himself off Avdija's back and lays it in.
View: https://twitter.com/Marc_DAmico/status/1485373127924359177?s=20
Marc Damico: This was very Smart
Brown shot poorly again (5-18), but helped himself by at least going 4-9 from three, and was the other C with a double-double (18 and 10).
Rob had a Rob game: 8 points 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks.
The bench was mostly quiet. Grant went for 10 and 7, Schroder went for 7 points, 5 assists, no one else scored outside of garbage time.
My favorite play was when he caught the ball from 15 feet out, and instead of just chucking up a shot to get 50, he hit Schroder on a handoff and Dennis got an easy and 1.
That’s a guy who is trying to grow as a player.
That’s a guy who is trying to grow as a player.
That was a give and go - Schroder passed it to him and then got the handoff. I wish they did more of that.
From Sean Grande:
Boosted by the 4th best defense in the league, the Celtics now have the NBA's 6th best Net Rating in January.
Boston is once again in the top 10 in scoring margin (+2.1).
The reason they're .500 remains..
4-12 in games decided by 5 or fewer
20-12 in games decided by 6 or more
I only watched the first quarter. But it was remarable how much more energy , and effort they played with. It was like the Portland games was spring training and this was a playoff game. The postive thing (he grasps for hope) is that perhaps tatum shooting well is connected to the team playing hard, playing D executing. Maybe like a guy shoots better when his team is playing better, gets in a better rhythm.
After a 6 game blip where GW averaged 24.5 minutes, .261/.211/.750, 3.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.0 block, (and a 7 game stretch of going 4/22 from 3), GW's shooting has recovered well.
Last 6: 22.2 minutes, .516/.500/1.000. 7.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.7 blocks. 11/22 from 3.
Prior the the 4/22 stretch, GW was shooting .466. It fell down to .416 and currently sits at .429. I thought for sure he was going to dip below .400 but anytime he's close, he goes on another streak.
Since the beginning of the 19/20 playoffs, Grant Williams is 123/297 from 3, .414.
Side note: Jayson Tatum is now averaging more TO a game than Jaylen Brown. This is largely due to Brown only having 9 TO in the last 5 games.
Last 6: 22.2 minutes, .516/.500/1.000. 7.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.7 blocks. 11/22 from 3.
Prior the the 4/22 stretch, GW was shooting .466. It fell down to .416 and currently sits at .429. I thought for sure he was going to dip below .400 but anytime he's close, he goes on another streak.
Since the beginning of the 19/20 playoffs, Grant Williams is 123/297 from 3, .414.
Side note: Jayson Tatum is now averaging more TO a game than Jaylen Brown. This is largely due to Brown only having 9 TO in the last 5 games.
Nice update
Grant's Corner 3pt% is holding up at 50.7% and he's been increasing his % of attempts from there (49.7%). That's exactly where the floor will open when the lane collapses on JAYs downhill runs.
Skinny Grant's defense is also much better this season. Credit to IME for not making GW the main 5 and playing him with either Al, Rob or Freedom.
Still believe Grant should be starting in lieu of Horford and expect we'll eventually see that happen.
January numbers are now .459 (13th)/.364 (8th)/.855 (2nd, though 28th in FTA/G).
They are also 26th (bad) in TO for January at 14.5.
Record 7-5.
Shooting has consistently improved as a whole since the beginning of the season. If they could cut back on the TO it would go a long way.
one note... it's probably easier to have a good shooting month when your worst shooter among your main rotation is out the whole month.
I assume you are talking about Smart but in the month of January he's 14/34, .412.
And he missed a bunch of games during which time his history tells us he would have taken and missed a lot of 3s. Smart's minutes going to guys who are better shooters is going to have an impact, that he had a hot streak then got hurt before it could even out just helps even more.
I think it's more surprising they are having a good shooting month when Tatum is at a .310 from 3 for January. Lots on things play a part, but hopefully it's a trend that continues and they can reel back on the turnovers.
Meh. Who are all these better shooters getting those shots? Even if it’s only Pritchard that is going to have a minimal impact on the overall number but many of those Smart minutes were also going to Schroder who is similar. We’re talking tiny samples here too.
If you or anyone else cares: Celtic Player Stats for January.
Schroder is currently 19/42 .452
Richardson 15/35, .429
Only Tatum and Horford are shooting below the team average of .364. Tatum is 26/84, .310 and Horford is 11/41 .268
Without those 2, the team is 114/290, .393.
Grant took his most of the year, Schroder actually took fewer than normal, Pritchard took fewer than Dec.
Really the answer isn't who took more shots, it's that the Celtics took their fewest 3PA per game in January. So it wasn't different guys taking 3s, it was eliminating bad 3s.
Marcus' problem isn't just that he can't hit 3s, it's that he takes far too many for how bad he is at it.
Marcus’ 3pt % over his past 4 years is identical to the team % this year. Even his 31.1% only brings our team % down by a fraction as he really doesn’t impact the number much when he only accounts for 11% of the total team attempts.
Meh, he's taking 11% of our 3s while playing 80% of the games, and he's terrible at them. Yes, he isn't having a massive impact because Tatum is also shooting poorly, but a guy shooting that much that poorly is bad, and you would expect the #s to go up some if he isn't in the game. He basically costs the team about a full point of 3pt% over a season, which isn't nothing in itself. But that's also just assuming he took the same shots, there is also the lost opportunity in the offense of having a guy not stretch the floor, and of him taking those shots at all versus getting into the paint to either create himself a better shot, or a better shot for a teammate.
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Without Marcus, the team is shooting .344 for the year instead of .340. If you factor in Marcus has only played 80% of the season, had he played the full 48, the team would be shooting .339 instead of .340. So a .005 drop in 48 games.
Or less than 1% over 82 games.
Can we give Marcus some credit? Offense sure looked better with him back, and the team was +36 with him on the court and -7 off. For the season he's got the second best on-off behind Tatum.
Nope. A significant portion of this board is not capable of admitting that Smart is a valuable, albeit imperfect, player.
There was a little stretch in the third where he could have had 6 assist in 3 minutes, but for a foul and some missed layups.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2022/01/23/bsj-game-report-boston-celtics-116-washington-wizards-87-marcus-smart-returns-jayson-tatum-goes-nuclear-celtics-win-easy
Massive strawman. Even his detractors here think he'd fetch a decent return, because the league knows he's good.
The "anti-Smart" position is more that the team should trade him before his value declines too much, because it's unclear whether he's a good fit on the Jays.
On a team with prime Kemba or Hayward, I definitely want Smart. Without that, he's harder to fit. I thought he played great in the 19-20 playoffs, but that was a different roster.
Yep. You can kick around trading a player you like if you believe his value is high, his skill set is in demand around the league, isn't a great fit or is going to decline.
On the opposite side of the curve: I'm not really impressed with Nesmith's shooting this year, but I don't want to trade him since his value is probably at its lowest.
The same goes with acquisitions: look for guys with flaws/blocked, trading low, that could be fixed/blossom in Boston's system (whatever that is)
So I dug into the teams defensive stats. Schroder, Tatum, and Romeo are almost impossible to score against in ISO. I’ll post all the rotation players, what percentage that players go iso against them, their oppositions points per possessions against them, and their eFG against.
Schroder- 7.2%/0.32 PPP/19% eFG
Romeo- 12.8%/0.52 PPP/22% eFG
Tatum- 8.5%/0.64 PPP/21.4% eFG
Smart- 3.9%/0.84 PPP/44.3% eFG
Horford- 17.8%/0.84 PPP/42.6% eFG
Rob- 13.4%/0.85 PPP/40.7% eFG
Jaylen- 5.2%/0.90 PPP/47.1% eFG
Grant- 17.6%/0.94 PPP/47.4% eFG
J Rich- 9.1%/0.96 PPP/58.8% eFG
Schroder is what stuck out to me, I would not have expected that lol. I’ll post what players shoot against these guys in total, at some point tonight.
Schroder- 7.2%/0.32 PPP/19% eFG
Romeo- 12.8%/0.52 PPP/22% eFG
Tatum- 8.5%/0.64 PPP/21.4% eFG
Smart- 3.9%/0.84 PPP/44.3% eFG
Horford- 17.8%/0.84 PPP/42.6% eFG
Rob- 13.4%/0.85 PPP/40.7% eFG
Jaylen- 5.2%/0.90 PPP/47.1% eFG
Grant- 17.6%/0.94 PPP/47.4% eFG
J Rich- 9.1%/0.96 PPP/58.8% eFG
Schroder is what stuck out to me, I would not have expected that lol. I’ll post what players shoot against these guys in total, at some point tonight.
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To piggyback on this, I heard Tjarks recently mention that there are really only 40 players, if that, who matter in the league. Everything else is just window dressing. Role players can only do so much.
Tatum and Brown are 2 of those 40. Smart is not. He's a very good role player, but nothing more, and you shouldn't have to contort your team around his weaknesses, i.e. he should augment your star players, not hold them back. If he's on the floor with TL, now you have a non-shooter and bad shooter clogging your lineup. If he's with this current version of Horford, now you have two bad shooters clogging your lineup. If he's in a two-big lineup, that's three bad shooters, all of them putting even more offensive stress on Tatum and Brown. But you shouldn't have to make lineup concessions for the likes of Marcus Smart, like ruining your defense with a better shooting/worse defensive big - it's not worth it.
And when your star, Tatum, is shooting 32% from 3, you have this year's Celtics on offense.
Unfortunately, his defense doesn't make up for it IMO. I think his effort, especially when the other guys on the floor have a tendency to loaf, is the biggest thing this team would miss. That would concern me.
But overall, yes, I think they should be looking to trade Marcus not because he's a bad player - he might be awesome in a situation like Denver or on the Nets or the healthy Clippers or even Dallas - but because he caps the team a bit with his limitations. When you don't excel at the things your position asks of you - like shooting and distributing - it puts stress on everyone else to do it and our stars don't have those skills. The problem is I'd want a PG who's a decent defender, good shooter, good distributor in his place, and I don't think that player is on the trade market, so the conversation is likely moot.
I was thinking about something similar looking at Celtics twitter melting down about the idea of trading Smart, including some usually reasonable people like Bernardoni. If you're not willing to trade the 4th best player on a .500 team.... you're almost certainly never going to be a contender. That's how you get upgrades is packaging your 3rd or 4th best player with a bunch of picks and filler.