Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

HomeRunBaker

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I don't think DS is that much better than JRich both sides of the floor considered down the stretch. Ime's switch scheme means that DS isn't guarding 1s anyways (he got torched by Fournier Thursday night) and if the Jays are going to have the ball in their hands down the stretch, he doesn't provide the necessary spacing or movement.
Yeah, like I said there are certain teams you can get away without have a PG on the floor and the Knicks lineup yesterday was one but in a blowout it doesn’t matter. Schroder’s value on this team is so great not only for his balk handling and penetrating but in checking opponents quick 1’s. That’s the thing with this group……you want Smart on the floor to defend the scoring wing but if they have a quick 1 you need Schroder on that end too.

Disclaimer: For the record as most know but to be clear it isn’t about Schroder as I’ve never been a huge fan but that of a player with his skillset that this team doesn’t have and really needs in many matchups.
 

benhogan

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skinny Granite is that stretch 4

They need a playmaker/PG of the future. PBS will probably have to wait until the summer to get it done.

BUT if you don't think Grant is that player then you should look at PJ Washington, who has lost his starting role, has had his minutes cut and the Bobcats desperately need defense.
 

NomarsFool

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It was just dumb criticism, Tatum had a 60% TS last night in only 29 minutes. Just didn’t rebound much, and the Celtics only converted on 1 of his 8 potential assists.
it was dumb criticism, agreed, but I personally think it's dumb for athletes to respond to media criticism. I'm sure it'd difficult, but they would be much better off just ignoring them.
 
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NomarsFool

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It was nice to see them involve Rob Williams in the offense last night, as well, throughout the game. Lately, it seems like they pass to Rob in the first minute or two, and then forget he's on the floor for the rest of the game. Williams is obviously not someone who creates his own offense but he can contribute double digit points on insane efficiency if the team will just use him as a rim runner / lob catcher.
 

Van Everyman

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Williams is obviously not someone who creates his own offense but he can contribute double digit points on insane efficiency if the team will just use him as a rim runner / lob catcher.
Which also spaces the floor bc guys have to play down low. Rob has also been playing like Smart on defense the last several games. He’s been terrific, including in that ugly Knicks loss.

I dunno, this is a puzzle. For all the bad results I find the team seems to like one another and have each other’s backs. They seem to be buying in to what Ime is preaching (witness: Jaylen with the triple double) even if the results are only there in spurts. And they are getting tons of open looks – and missing them at historic (and uncharacteristic) rates.

I continue to think the problem is less roster construction than consistency and comfort in the system. Whether they get there this year is an open question because it seems like a lot of these guys are having trouble doing it for more than a few games in a row.
 

sezwho

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skinny Granite is that stretch 4

They need a playmaker/PG of the future. PBS will probably have to wait until the summer to get it done.

BUT if you don't think Grant is that player then you should look at PJ Washington, who has lost his starting role, has had his minutes cut and the Bobcats desperately need defense.
I definitely didn't see it coming, but Grant hasn't just maintained last years success from three (.372 on 129), but built substantially on it. He's still well over .400 for the season on 120 attempts, and is indeed that stretch 4. I don't have a strong opinion (beyond general skepticism I suppose) of the various defensive metrics, but at least DRTG doesn't see him as much burden or advantage, which generally aligns with these lyin' eyes.

W/r/t being skinny, I'm not sure I can draw the exact correlation between how I've perceived his fitness and his performance, but its hard to ignore. I know some big fellas (like my brother) that live pretty healthy but can end up 300lbs just walking past a Krispy Kreme. It may well be a challenge his whole career, but if he can stay Dine Lord then both he and the Cs look to have something real. I also personally draw great schadenfreude from the wtf look that presents on the player who runs into his pick in just the right way.
 

Cellar-Door

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Good that Nesmith is going to get some shots up in Maine he's not been playable for the main team but needs to get game shots
 

benhogan

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I definitely didn't see it coming, but Grant hasn't just maintained last years success from three (.372 on 129), but built substantially on it. He's still well over .400 for the season on 120 attempts, and is indeed that stretch 4. I don't have a strong opinion (beyond general skepticism I suppose) of the various defensive metrics, but at least DRTG doesn't see him as much burden or advantage, which generally aligns with these lyin' eyes.

W/r/t being skinny, I'm not sure I can draw the exact correlation between how I've perceived his fitness and his performance, but its hard to ignore. I know some big fellas (like my brother) that live pretty healthy but can end up 300lbs just walking past a Krispy Kreme. It may well be a challenge his whole career, but if he can stay Dine Lord then both he and the Cs look to have something real. I also personally draw great schadenfreude from the wtf look that presents on the player who runs into his pick in just the right way.
"skinny" is purely in jest. He'll never be the prototypical NBA pogo stick. BUT last season was a disaster when he tried to add bulk to play the 5. He went and cut pounds this summer. Now he is a wing/4/swing (whatever you want to call it). Very rarely should he play the 5 (he played there when IME went full panic against the Magic, so his 5 #s will be skewed)

The Corner3 is exactly where he'd be stationed playing with the JAYs, drawing defenders and opening the floor for the JAYS/TL
 

Cesar Crespo

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I definitely didn't see it coming, but Grant hasn't just maintained last years success from three (.372 on 129), but built substantially on it. He's still well over .400 for the season on 120 attempts, and is indeed that stretch 4. I don't have a strong opinion (beyond general skepticism I suppose) of the various defensive metrics, but at least DRTG doesn't see him as much burden or advantage, which generally aligns with these lyin' eyes.

W/r/t being skinny, I'm not sure I can draw the exact correlation between how I've perceived his fitness and his performance, but its hard to ignore. I know some big fellas (like my brother) that live pretty healthy but can end up 300lbs just walking past a Krispy Kreme. It may well be a challenge his whole career, but if he can stay Dine Lord then both he and the Cs look to have something real. I also personally draw great schadenfreude from the wtf look that presents on the player who runs into his pick in just the right way.
I just worry about Grant's true 3 point %. Maybe he really is a .400+ shooter, but 120 isn't much of a sample. Still, since the beginning of the 19/20 playoffs, he is 111/270, .411.

He's 3/17 from 3 his last 5, including his 2/5 last night. SSS, but he was due for some regression. Problem with Grant is when he's not hitting 3s, he's not really contributing. There was one game where he played bully ball against the Suns. You can see his Game Log. When his 3 is falling, he's contributing in other areas of the game as well. When it's not, he's not doing anything. I know there's been some people suggesting he should start, but I don't think that's a good idea. I think he's fine as the 8th man in the rotation and getting 20-25 minutes a game but his success largely depends on the other teams lineup.

JRich is the guy they should be starting. He's been a starter pretty much his entire career and is currently having a career year shooting the ball. He's also in the prime of his career and can pass the ball a little. I've been a fan of his all season and that the only thing holding him back from being the C's 3rd best player is Ime, but I digress.


And in the "you wouldn't know it" department: Tatum's last 13 games, .450/.376/.855, 26.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, 3.0 TO. He's been shooting better of late, around his career norms. He was just so bad the first 23 it's going to take awhile to lift up his season numbers barring a hot streak.

Jaylen's last 13 (his return, not all overlapping with Tatum's) .458/.363/.778, 26.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 4.0 TO.

The C's could live with the Jays averaging 7.5 APG, the 7.0 TO is definitely problematic. Last year, the duo averaged 7.7 APG and 5.4 TO. This year, they are currently at 6.7 APG and 5.9 TO.

Smart's last 23 games: .419/.327/.831, 12.9 points, 5.6 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals.

If one wanted to be optimistic, there is some stuff to work with here. Replacing Al with JRich would open the up the floor for everyone. Having Al on the 2nd unit would help the bench, and keep both him and TL fresh for the end of games if necessary. GWill looks to be a decent shooter. Smart is Marcus Smart. I don't think DS is a great fit but others seem to think he is. He's a good fit as a bench player replacing one of the Jays, providing there's some shooting.

Hard to be optimistic about RL and AN. PP was playing well prior to injury and provides a need. Even more so than GWill, if his shot isn't falling, he isn't providing any value. I kind of want the team to go into "2022/23" mode but I can also see them deciding to add a player this year (and hopefully next) and trying to compete in the playoffs. Playing RL and AN could just as easily hurt their value, and it probably has.

To end the ramble, Maine might actually be fun to watch if they had a lineup of Hauser/Nesmith/Thomas. 3 ball indeed.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Even when Grant is hitting threes, he’s usually not taking many. I think the C’s would take a lower % at more volume. 7/3/1 in 23 minutes is not a lot of production .
 

benhogan

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Grant's 3pt release has been getting quicker. It's a skill he has learned from his rookie year, non-existent in college. I like him with the starters. IMO his pocket/stroke looks better than JRich. Playing with the JAYs means we don't really need anymore above the break 3s and Grant is the King of the Corner3. JRich is OK from the corner and doesn't really attempt many from there.

JRich is a better all-around player, but the starter role would call for a particular set of skills Grant excels at.

I agree JRich should be playing more minutes, where he could be featured with the 2nd unit. His offense is legit from the top
 

Cesar Crespo

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Even when Grant is hitting threes, he’s usually not taking many. I think the C’s would take a lower % at more volume. 7/3/1 in 23 minutes is not a lot of production .
5.4 3PA/36. Not the best, but it is trending upwards. 3.3 and 4.1 his first 2 years.

Looking more into Celtic trends... this one is UGLY. Al Horford's last 6 games: 29.9 mpg, .289/.136/.875. 6.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.5 blocks. He failed to score double digits in any of those games. His EFG% is now at a career low .497. His TS is around a career low and right in line with his last 2 seasons (career low .536 in 19/20, .538 in 20/21, .539 currently) Somehow, the C's are 3-3 in those 6 games and Al is a +14, (+8 yesterday).

TL's last 10 games: 32.5 mpg, .754/---/.533, 11.2 points, 10.5 rebounds (4.5 OReb), 3.0 assists, 3.0 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.3 TO. Someone mentioned the Blocks/TO stat, the last 10 games it's at 30/13. He has had at least 2 blocks the last 8 games. He had 4 or more blocks in those 8 games, including a 5 and 7 block game. In those 8 games, he had 4 games with at least 2 TO, one of those with 3. Career 232 blocks, 182 assists, 99 steals, 120 TO. He has missed 157 FG in 144 career games. He has more blocks and assists than missed FGs. He also has 228 dunks in his career. Fun stats!

Also, fwiw, Brown's assist % is up to 15.3% which isn't far off his career high last year of 16.5%. Going into the year, his career assist % was 10.1%. His TO% is at a career high of 13.1%. Last year it was 11.5% and going into the year, his career rate was 11.4%.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Since we talk about shooting all of the time, here's some thoughts from the self-proclaimed "Best Shooter in the Universe," who can make upwards of 98+% of his jump shots: https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2022/01/06/shooting-guru-dave-hopla-al-horford-jayson-tatum/

His thoughts on Horford: "Hopla Says: 'HORFORD tends to have his right foot pointing towards the left of his target. On the catch his balance hand is on top of the ball, when lifting the ball to his set point, his elbows stick out and his right hand appears to be in front of his face. On his follow thru he drops the left hand and turns his right hand to the right on follow thru.'"
 

Cesar Crespo

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Grant's 3pt release has been getting quicker. It's a skill he has learned from his rookie year, non-existent in college. I like him with the starters. IMO his pocket/stroke looks better than JRich. Playing with the JAYs means we don't really need anymore above the break 3s and Grant is the King of the Corner3. JRich is OK from the corner and doesn't really attempt many from there.

JRich is a better all-around player, but the starter role would call for a particular set of skills Grant excels at.

I agree JRich should be playing more minutes, where he could be featured with the 2nd unit. His offense is legit from the top
JRich doesn't really let it fly either. He's at 4.9 3PA/36. His career rate is 5.1. Either one starting is better than Al. I've come around on TL playing 28-30 minutes a night, too. I'm also against the 2 big lineup. That leaves 18-20 minutes for Al as the back up big. That frees up 10 minutes. Split those up between JRich and Grant Williams. One reason GWill may be better than JRich in the starting lineup: 68.5% of Grant's 2 PFGs have been assisted, including a whopping 80.0% this year. JRich is at .417 for his career and .431 this season. I'd still prefer JRich in the starting lineup, as I think he's an ok playmaker who has been underutilized. Of course, some say that about Grant.
 

benhogan

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Even when Grant is hitting threes, he’s usually not taking many. I think the C’s would take a lower % at more volume. 7/3/1 in 23 minutes is not a lot of production .
It's about spreading the floor for the JAYs/TL. Grants gravity from the corner would do that. I wouldn't expect his ppg to change much, but he'd be there for Jaylen to kick out to when going 1 on 4

In addition to that, you want Grant to develop a chemistry with TimeLord/JAYs/Smart, who are all signed long-term. Not only is it an upgrade now but a play for multiple years.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I just worry about Grant's true 3 point %. Maybe he really is a .400+ shooter, but 120 isn't much of a sample. Still, since the beginning of the 19/20 playoffs, he is 111/270, .411.

He's 3/17 from 3 his last 5, including his 2/5 last night. SSS, but he was due for some regression. Problem with Grant is when he's not hitting 3s, he's not really contributing. There was one game where he played bully ball against the Suns. You can see his Game Log. When his 3 is falling, he's contributing in other areas of the game as well. When it's not, he's not doing anything. I know there's been some people suggesting he should start, but I don't think that's a good idea. I think he's fine as the 8th man in the rotation and getting 20-25 minutes a game but his success largely depends on the other teams lineup.
If you include his playoff numbers, Grant is 135 of 366 for a percentage of 37% from three. Seems fair to include his strong playoff numbers (14-25) and his 0-25 start. That (37%) seems like a reasonable baseline expectation with some potential for improvement). I think he's shown improvement in other areas, but he's a beneficiary of an offensive apprach that doesn't rely solely on 2.5 different flavors of telegraphed isos.
 

benhogan

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Maybe it's finally donning on IME that 2BIGZ doesn't work and huge minutes for 35yr old Al Horford was a terrible idea from day 1.

Jared Weiss expects we'll see more JRich & Grant and less double BIGs. :) It's about fukn time.

As Udoka put it Saturday, sometimes you’re making the right decision and players don’t make shots, or you’re making the right decision and watching the ball clank off the rim and into an opponent’s hands. It seeps into the mindset and too often hinders one of the league’s worst clutch offenses

OR sometimes the Rookie Head Coach is making the wrong decision by playing players that don't enhance each other's play. IME better start taking ownership of some of his very questionable rotations or Boston will turn on him (or worse yet the players). This town is knowledgeable enough to understand what's going on here.

https://theathletic.com/3060462/2022/01/10/its-time-for-the-celtics-to-change-their-closing-lineup-grant-williams-and-josh-richardson-are-making-their-case/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
 

nighthob

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Given that the firm of Tatum, Brown, & Smart pushed for/endorsed the hire, he’s going to get a year 2 (unless the first two sour on him, then nothing can save him). Hopefully he learns from this year’s mistakes, and hopefully he learns to stop pushing his stars into traffic.
 

luckiestman

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Maybe it's finally donning on IME that 2BIGZ doesn't work and huge minutes for 35yr old Al Horford was a terrible idea from day 1.

Jared Weiss expects we'll see more JRich & Grant and less double BIGs. :) It's about fukn time.

As Udoka put it Saturday, sometimes you’re making the right decision and players don’t make shots, or you’re making the right decision and watching the ball clank off the rim and into an opponent’s hands. It seeps into the mindset and too often hinders one of the league’s worst clutch offenses

OR sometimes the Rookie Head Coach is making the wrong decision by playing players that don't enhance each other's play. IME better start taking ownership of some of his very questionable rotations or Boston will turn on him (or worse yet the players). This town is knowledgeable enough to understand what's going on here.

https://theathletic.com/3060462/2022/01/10/its-time-for-the-celtics-to-change-their-closing-lineup-grant-williams-and-josh-richardson-are-making-their-case/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Ime is the Celtics Joe Judge
 

Cellar-Door

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Ime is the Celtics Joe Judge
my hope is he's our Bill O'Brien. Rough start, learns he doesn't have the accomplishments to act like the notoriosly surly boss he learned under(Bil B., Pop) and settles into being a good coach (just don't let him GM).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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In defense of Ime Udoka.

I think Mike Gorman puts it best on the broadcasts when he says that Ime is a guy who seems to believe that if he's asked a question, he should give an answer. As the article points out, this is the biggest difference between Brad and Ime.

If, as the article above surmises, Ime is just repeating stuff he's saying during film session, I don't think he'll lose the locker room. I think the bigger issue is if Ime says something to the media that he's not saying to the players but given Ime's reputation for authenticity, I doubt this is happening.

At the end of the day, Ime's only going to keep his job if the Cs win, so if this gets the Cs to win, more power to him.
 

NomarsFool

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Given that the firm of Tatum, Brown, & Smart pushed for/endorsed the hire, he’s going to get a year 2 (unless the first two sour on him, then nothing can save him). Hopefully he learns from this year’s mistakes, and hopefully he learns to stop pushing his stars into traffic.
Doesn't really matter who endorsed him, it's extremely challenging to fire a coach after one season unless there is blatant, ouright misconduct (like Urban Meyer). A completely incompetent coach (and I'm NOT saying Udoka is) would have at least a 1 season honeymoon. Add in perceived challenges due to COVID, that's easily extendable to 2 years. If the Celtics make a roster upgrade next summer, and they STILL don't win - Udoka is gone after next season. If they run it back and they don't win - he's probably got two more seasons after this one.
 

benhogan

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Ime is the Celtics Joe Judge
Ha, sadly I'm a Giants fan and if IME is pulling Joe Judge shenanigans in year 2 we're screwed.

Doesn't really matter who endorsed him, it's extremely challenging to fire a coach after one season unless there is blatant, ouright misconduct (like Urban Meyer). A completely incompetent coach (and I'm NOT saying Udoka is) would have at least a 1 season honeymoon. Add in perceived challenges due to COVID, that's easily extendable to 2 years. If the Celtics make a roster upgrade next summer, and they STILL don't win - Udoka is gone after next season. If they run it back and they don't win - he's probably got two more seasons after this one.
Nobody is really calling for IME's head or to be fired. BUT we do have ourselves a 1st time Head Coach and it shows. It would be nice if he used his roster properly and recognized he hasn't got the most out of it, instead of talking about a lack of roster leadership. These players are plenty capable of doing great things.
 
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luckiestman

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I mean I’ve been down on Ime from the get go but not even I can go this far. Judge is in a world where even Nagy would have trouble entering. He’s not going anywhere this summer.

Ime talks crazy. It’s this bizzarro hard ass blame everyone but the mirror stuff that reminds me of JJ.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ime talks crazy. It’s this bizzarro hard ass blame everyone but the mirror stuff that reminds me of JJ.
Reasonable Port Cellar Post:
We are due so if Brad and/or Ime don’t pan out we can’t be took upset as we’ve been spoiled for so long. Since Red took over more than 70 years ago this franchise has only had the B2B ML Carr/Pitino train wreck leadership years. This is an astounding amount of success and while the Bird years masked at least one (KC) that man was smart enough to allow the team grow itself.

Also later today but in game thread:
BLOW THIS CRAP UP NOW!!!! We stink!!!!!!
 

tbb345

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In defense of Ime Udoka.

I think Mike Gorman puts it best on the broadcasts when he says that Ime is a guy who seems to believe that if he's asked a question, he should give an answer. As the article points out, this is the biggest difference between Brad and Ime.

If, as the article above surmises, Ime is just repeating stuff he's saying during film session, I don't think he'll lose the locker room. I think the bigger issue is if Ime says something to the media that he's not saying to the players but given Ime's reputation for authenticity, I doubt this is happening.

At the end of the day, Ime's only going to keep his job if the Cs win, so if this gets the Cs to win, more power to him.
I think this is true to a certain extent but it’s not just that he throws players under the bus. It’s that he does this while often taking the utter minimum amount of responsibility for anything bad.

It’s very tough to listen to someone with minimum success, and a guy that I think even you would admit has made a good amount of mistakes, talk as if he’s doing basically everything right but the players keep fucking up.

I don’t think he’s lost the locker room (or is even close to it) but if he continues this act next year, players are going to get real tired of him real fast.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think this is true to a certain extent but it’s not just that he throws players under the bus. It’s that he does this while often taking the utter minimum amount of responsibility for anything bad.

It’s very tough to listen to someone with minimum success, and a guy that I think even you would admit has made a good amount of mistakes, talk as if he’s doing basically everything right but the players keep fucking up.

I don’t think he’s lost the locker room (or is even close to it) but if he continues this act next year, players are going to get real tired of him real fast.
"I was right, they just did it wrong."

He comes across as incredibly smug.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm not sure I'd characterize it quite as throwing players under the bus. There are certainly plenty of coaches out there where that label really fits. I think Ime is not as Bill Belichikian as I'd like but given how sensitive to criticism some of them seem to be, I don't think they perceive it as being thrown under the bus - or we'd hear about it.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm not sure I'd characterize it quite as throwing players under the bus. There are certainly plenty of coaches out there where that label really fits. I think Ime is not as Bill Belichikian as I'd like but given how sensitive to criticism some of them seem to be, I don't think they perceive it as being thrown under the bus - or we'd hear about it.
I don't think there is another coach in the league who is more critical of his players across the board than him, there definitely isn't one who has such a lopsided balance of criticism of players versus owning of mistakes.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The NBA is about stars---both marketing wise and on-court success wise. So, Ime likely needs to be careful in calling out players---which he might be behind the scenes already. Pop has (like BB, though he rarely does it) the credibility to say whatever he wants and get away with it---Ime does not.

I do think part of why he's here is to help drive some changes in the way players interact and play, and that his public comments are calculated as part of that. I hope it works and they don't tune him out; he is playing with fire.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Setting aside round number thresholds: the Cs are currently #6 in the league in defensive rating (after GS, PHO, CLE, LAC, DAL) and not far off #5.
Raw DefRat numbers aren’t the best indicator of defensive success as so much of the number can be predicated by Pace which you can control. If you’re playing slow your defense is set and organized…..if you play fast you are giving up numbers the other way as the price you pay for generating your own. Without peaking I’d guess that the non-GS/Phoe teams (who are among the elite) on that list are among the slower paced teams in the league which greatly assist their DefRat.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Raw DefRat numbers aren’t the best indicator of defensive success as so much of the number can be predicated by Pace which you can control. If you’re playing slow your defense is set and organized…..if you play fast you are giving up numbers the other way as the price you pay for generating your own. Without peaking I’d guess that the non-GS/Phoe teams (who are among the elite) on that list are among the slower paced teams in the league which greatly assist their DefRat.
You are correct on this, Clippers aside.
http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor

Watching the Celtics it's pretty obvious. Rarely do they attack early in the shot clock. They are the antithesis of playing with pace. I'm not bought in on this being a good defensive team yet. They just play slow.
 

slamminsammya

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Raw DefRat numbers aren’t the best indicator of defensive success as so much of the number can be predicated by Pace which you can control. If you’re playing slow your defense is set and organized…..if you play fast you are giving up numbers the other way as the price you pay for generating your own. Without peaking I’d guess that the non-GS/Phoe teams (who are among the elite) on that list are among the slower paced teams in the league which greatly assist their DefRat.
I don't think this is true. Pace pales in comparison to TO% and FG% in terms of impact on the defense being set. Is there any evidence pace is correlated with defensive rating?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't think this is true. Pace pales in comparison to TO% and FG% in terms of impact on the defense being set. Is there any evidence pace is correlated with defensive rating?
I never looked for any but if there isn’t a correlation between scoring in transition with numbers being more effective than 5-on-5 against a set defense than there is a problem with how DefRat is processed.
 

slamminsammya

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I never looked for any but if there isn’t a correlation between scoring in transition with numbers being more effective than 5-on-5 against a set defense than there is a problem with how DefRat is processed.
Yes, I agree. The correlation is with how often you are giving up transition opportunities which is faintly related to overall pace, and dictated more by fg% and to%. In fact, given that transition offense tends to be much more efficient I can imagine it is possible that in aggregate a fast pace offense will give up a smaller share of transition opportunities.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, I agree. The correlation is with how often you are giving up transition opportunities which is faintly related to overall pace, and dictated more by fg% and to%. In fact, given that transition offense tends to be much more efficient I can imagine it is possible that in aggregate a fast pace offense will give up a smaller share of transition opportunities.
I don’t understand what you are saying. How can a team give up less transition opportunities when they engage in transition opposed to when they don’t?
 

Cellar-Door

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In the game thread in a fit of anger I said "fire Ime into the sun"... I regret that. They should just fire him from his job. Rookie coaches should get leash on mistakes. Rookie coaches can't be allowed to grind your players into dust because they're insecure about how much they suck at their job.
 

slamminsammya

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I don’t understand what you are saying. How can a team give up less transition opportunities when they engage in transition opposed to when they don’t?
Transition usually comes from missed baskets and turnovers. If a particular team's fast paced offense produces fewer turnovers and more made baskets then it would tend to give up fewer transition chances to the other team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Transition usually comes from missed baskets and turnovers. If a particular team's fast paced offense produces fewer turnovers and more made baskets then it would tend to give up fewer transition chances to the other team.
You’re really overthinking this imo. Are you implying that transition leads to baskets which results in a half court game bc that’s what it sounds like.
 

HomeRunBaker

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View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1480746722364112899


Seriously... you're only playing the guy's you're comfortable with, and want to get Jaylen and Tatum in a Rhythm by playing them 40 minutes?

This guy is an absolute clown.
Well, this is Brad’s big hire so he not only isn’t given a pass here but is responsible for Ime’s performance. Based on what we know now I’d love to have been a fly on the wall during these interviews. Not good. Leadership and accountability starts at the top.
 

Cellar-Door

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Well, this is Brad’s big hire so he not only isn’t given a pass here but is responsible for Ime’s performance. Based on what we know now I’d love to have been a fly on the wall during these interviews. Not good. Leadership and accountability starts at the top.
Thing is, his rep was great, vouched for by good coaches, well liked by players, credited with building really good defenses etc. Problem is you really can't tell what a guy is gonna be like under pressure when things go sideways until they do.
 

slamminsammya

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You’re really overthinking this imo. Are you implying that transition leads to baskets which results in a half court game bc that’s what it sounds like.
Overthinking? I am working from the extremely simple and obvious (to me) heuristic that transition comes from turnovers and missed baskets.

I just did a quick analysis for this season using NBA.com numbers

The correlation between a team's rate of transition possessions on offense and their rate of transition possessions on defense is a pretty weak 0.24. The correlation between a team's FG% and rate of opponent transition posessions is much stronger, 0.38. You'd want more data to really be confident here but as a rough and dirty analysis it conforms to my intuition.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Overthinking? I am working from the extremely simple and obvious (to me) heuristic that transition comes from turnovers and missed baskets.

I just did a quick analysis for this season using NBA.com numbers

The correlation between a team's rate of transition possessions on offense and their rate of transition possessions on defense is a pretty weak 0.24. The correlation between a team's FG% and rate of opponent transition posessions is much stronger, 0.38. You'd want more data to really be confident here but as a rough and dirty analysis it conforms to my intuition.
I’m not saying FG% isn’t a factor as it is obviously an enormous one. You still haven’t addressed the obvious elephant in the room in that implying teams do not score more efficiently with numbers advantages than agaiant a set defense.
 

slamminsammya

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I’m not saying FG% isn’t a factor as it is obviously an enormous one. You still haven’t addressed the obvious elephant in the room in that implying teams do not score more efficiently with numbers advantages than agaiant a set defense.
wut? I am not sure we are understanding eachother. I completely agree teams score more efficiently in transition, that is part of my argument.