Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

Cesar Crespo

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Taking into account one of Sactown or SA will make the play in game, the C's have a 13.9% chance of a top 4 pick and a 3.0% chance of the 1st overall.

If Atlanta passes them, it goes to 20.3% and 4.5%.

This sums up the C's season to date.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I just did 3 sims with the C's placed 11th (lower odds) and the 3rd sim, the C's got the 3rd pick. The 2 they were 11th.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Watched this game at a friend's house, so didn't focus like normal. But a couple things.

Enes played 11 minutes in the 1st half, and was +12 or something. He played, I think, 30 seconds in the 2nd half. Ime is definitely really good at one thing. Going away from something that's working.
Kanter just happened to be on the floor at the start of the 2Q when the Celtics hit 6 consecutive 3-pointers. On the other end he was helpless against their PNR. He couldn’t play in the 2H after his showing when he was out there.
 

lovegtm

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This roster is middling. Their results are middling, their offense is effectively terrible enough to overwhelm the value of their defense in every sense. Their individual and team shooting numbers are relatively poor. But the core of this team had roughly the same results last season too with a different coach. They were a middling offensive team that played mostly .500 ball.

This is who they are and have been for a long while now. They can still improve, especially if there are roster changes. But its not like they are really underperforming their aggregate talent.

If there is a statistical argument to be made to the contrary, I am all ears
I think this is reasonable at this point, with the caveat that they were substantially over .500 last year when JT+JB played together, and are substantially under it this year.

The only two conclusions I see at this point are "mortgage picks to add more talent" or "blow it up", where "blow it up" means that everything not named Tatum is available at the right price.

Absent something crazy like Beal forcing his way to Boston mid-season, I don't see the available guy you can add before the offseason. Maybe a 3-teamer for Simmons where you mortgage picks and keep JB, but that's tough to make work.

Whether they're going to blow it up or try to add talent, they need to get a high draft pick this year. This team clearly isn't going to do anything, and may not even make the playoffs as constructed anyway. They really, really need to find a way to tank to have a good path out of this.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Enes played 11 minutes in the 1st half, and was +12 or something. He played, I think, 30 seconds in the 2nd half. Ime is definitely really good at one thing. Going away from something that's working.
I wouldn't say that this 'worked' so much as the Celtics hit 8 straight threes or something like that. In the second half the Knicks started attacking the drop coverage int he pick and roll.
Marcus Smart needs to be gone the minute Brad can get a decent return for him. I talked about it repeatedly when they re-signed him and I'll continue to say it. He does a lot of good things, I've enjoyed rooting for him, but damn, he's just about as bad a fit for the Jays as anyone could be. Maybe only slightly better than DS, who is an even worse fit.
Smart does fine when he is in PG mode. He gets them, and Rob, the ball. It is the Smart Schroder combo that doesn't work because both of their defenders will heppaily cheat off of them.
Absent something crazy like Beal forcing his way to Boston mid-season, I don't see the available guy you can add before the offseason. Maybe a 3-teamer for Simmons where you mortgage picks and keep JB, but that's tough to make work.
The odds of Beal forcing his way to this mess of a team have to be extremely long.
 

MannyRam

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Smart attempted SIX 3-pt attempts in the 4th quarter, making 2. His two makes were in the first 4 mins of the quarter.. Meanwhile Brown gets only one shot. That is awful coaching.

Love Smart for all the other things he brings but he doesn't seem like great fit with the J's, and certainly can't be trusted in a closing lineup.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'm not going to do a full writeup because how much is there to say.

I will say that 2 separate but related problems were in play last night: blowing a massive lead, and inability to play well late in close games. Celtics are really really bad - like worse than their natural talent level as a team bad - at both. As a result, they are 18-21 even though they have just barely outscored their opponents - the Celtics are +37 on the year, which is about +1 per game on average.

One other overall thought. The Knicks went big playing Taj Gibson a lot, and Ime made the choice to match that instead of attack it. Horford, Rob, and Kanter played a total of 77 minutes, meaning 29 minutes with 2 bigs. It didn't work.

Grant played only 15 minutes, missing 3 threes. Grant's 3 point shooting has been poor in recent games, but, like many guys, he is at his best shooting from the corner and most of his recent misses have been from above the break. It is almost as if they have abandoned offnesive concepts like using Grant in the corner. Grant is still 4th on the team in made threes, shooting 43% overall and 55% from the corner.

There were a couple of good performances worth calling out:

Jayson Tatum scored 36 points to lead the Celtics, which he did by shooting well (12/21), including from three (6/11) and at the line (6/6). He scored 13 of their last 15 points in the 4th including a tying basket with 2 seconds left. Beyond points, he also added 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals and a block against only one turnover.

Rob WIlliams scored only 6 points in this one, but affected the game in other ways: 9 rebounds, 7 blocks, 2 steals, and an assist. One of those steals was a Marcus Smart type of steal (knock the ball lose and then dive to the floor for it). As the Knicks were coming back, it seemed sometimes like ROb was the only guy on the floor standing in the way.

Dennis Schroder was up and down in this one: 7 of 8 in the first half, with no assists, 1 of 4 in the second, with three.

Jaylen got off to a fast offensive start and then vanished.

Marcus had his worst game in a while. 14 points, 5 assists, 3 turnovers. Superficially, the best thing about his game was that he shot 4 for 10 from three, a decent percentage. But you don't want Marcus taking 10 threes. He was wide open for many of them but that is of course by defensive design. If Marcus has the ball taken out of his hands as a playmaker, and he hits a couple of early threes, games like this are the result. And if you look under the hood, here, the reality looks worse than the 4-10 line which is decent on its face. Marcus hit one three that went backboard-front rim-backboard-front rim-net. If hitting a shot like that is a skill thing, they should award extra points for it. Alas...
 
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Eddie Jurak

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Smart attempted SIX 3-pt attempts in the 4th quarter, making 2. His two makes were in the first 4 mins of the quarter.. Meanwhile Brown gets only one shot. That is awful coaching.

Love Smart for all the other things he brings but he doesn't seem like great fit with the J's, and certainly can't be trusted in a closing lineup.
The problem is Ime's decision to employ him as a floor spacing wing in those situations, especially in lineups that don;t have anyone who can shoot reliably other than Brown and Tatum themselves.
 

128

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Smart attempted SIX 3-pt attempts in the 4th quarter, making 2. His two makes were in the first 4 mins of the quarter.. Meanwhile Brown gets only one shot. That is awful coaching.

Love Smart for all the other things he brings but he doesn't seem like great fit with the J's, and certainly can't be trusted in a closing lineup.
As someone noted in the game thread, Smart is getting open shots for a reason.
 

benhogan

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The Celtics may have just resurrected the season of one of their main competitors to the PLAY-IN game.

Tatum went supernova and that still wasn't enough to overcome what's going on here, which is getting clearer by the game.

Just note, when you are concerned about PLAY-in seeding you're in purgatory. I'm not even sure blowing it up is all that wise since we still will have IME calling the shots, who has been pressing mightily since the start. Anyone comparing last year's injury-ravaged & post-bubble exhausted roster to this year's roster isn't paying attention. Then again, it's probably not fair to compare a rookie HC to one of the better college/pro HC over the last 20yrs.

There was plenty of concern around these parts with IME's approach and it's playing out. I thought this season would be OK but would lead to a big 2023 playoff run led by the JAYs, that's in jeopardy now with both JAYs regressing (for the first time) in IME's system.
 

NomarsFool

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Playing Horford and TimeLord and Freedom together so much just isn’t working. Horford is just awful from 3 this year, and the Celtics seem to forget about Williams on the offensive end after the first possession. We need more Grant Williams.

Watching the game when they were up by so much, I remember thinking “I’m surprised he’s not spreading the minutes around a bit more on the second night of a back to back”. Well, surprise surprise, the team fell apart In the 4th. This isn’t advanced coaching stuff here.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They are underperforming their talent level. Their point differential, which is the same as the Sixers, suggests they should be about 20-18, which is one game worse or where they’d be had they not blown the 4 games which they led by 15+. If this were a baseball team we’d say they had been unlucky but I’m not so sure that’s the case.
 

Van Everyman

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SVG said something on the broadcast last night that I can’t help but think may be the reason they’re underperforming: that you can’t underestimate how challenging it can be to have a new coach putting in a new program. He said Ime has them changing from a bunch of iso players to facilitators—Tatum but also Brown and even Smart—and that it’s a really hard but necessary transition that will pay dividends in the long run but in the interim can be really difficult to watch.

Outside of “They’re a bunch of gutless losers” (which doesn’t seem to the be the case) I’m inclined to think that’s the reason. I can’t watch this team massively underperform their FG and 3P %ages without thinking that they all have too much shit in their heads on any given play.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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They are underperforming their talent level. Their point differential, which is the same as the Sixers, suggests they should be about 20-18, which is one game worse or where they’d be had they not blown the 4 games which they led by 15+. If this were a baseball team we’d say they had been unlucky but I’m not so sure that’s the case.
The Cs are 2-11 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. I'm also not going to say that it's random like baseball one-run games as there are obviously very real issues but on the optimistic side, it also means that an improvement down the stretch could have big improvement in their win-loss performance.
 

lexrageorge

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The Cs are 2-11 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. I'm also not going to say that it's random like baseball one-run games as there are obviously very real issues but on the optimistic side, it also means that an improvement down the stretch could have big improvement in their win-loss performance.
While I don't have any hard data, my internal biases tell me that this record is more indicative in basketball of the underlying talent level than it is in baseball. FYI, I use the term talent broadly here, as it includes coaching and roster fit as well.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I thought the studies on this in basketball suggested “how good your star player is” turns out to be a big driver of close-game success?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This CsBlog article - https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/1/6/22870068/finishing-woes-continue-to-cost-boston-celtics-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-marcus-smart - talks about shot selection down the stretch as being a problem. I've not been able to bring myself to watch the second half of the NYK game but I expect more of the same in the 2nd half.

I'll note that while the Cs ball movement is marginally better since the beginning of the season, I'm beginning to focus more on player movement. As JB mentioned after the SAS loss, players stand around on the offensive end. A lot. Tatum, in particularly, does nothing on offense when he doesn't have the ball.

The stats bear this out. NBA.com says that the Cs have the 2nd lowest average speed on offense - behind only LAL - and have the 4th lowest distance on offense in the league - behind LAL, BRK, and LAC. (Just by way of comparison, CHI has the 5th lowest distance but is middle in the pack in speed. SAS, which I'm sure Ime would like to emulate, is first in both categories.)

Ime has his work cut out for him.
 

benhogan

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This CsBlog article - https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/1/6/22870068/finishing-woes-continue-to-cost-boston-celtics-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-marcus-smart - talks about shot selection down the stretch as being a problem. I've not been able to bring myself to watch the second half of the NYK game but I expect more of the same in the 2nd half.

I'll note that while the Cs ball movement is marginally better since the beginning of the season, I'm beginning to focus more on player movement. As JB mentioned after the SAS loss, players stand around on the offensive end. A lot. Tatum, in particularly, does nothing on offense when he doesn't have the ball.

The stats bear this out. NBA.com says that the Cs have the 2nd lowest average speed on offense - behind only LAL - and have the 4th lowest distance on offense in the league - behind LAL, BRK, and LAC. (Just by way of comparison, CHI has the 5th lowest distance but is middle in the pack in speed. SAS, which I'm sure Ime would like to emulate, is first in both categories.)

Ime has his work cut out for him.
Thanks for posting.

This team is getting paint touches in the middle but still refuses to kick out for the open step in 3 enough. Marcus looking to draw fouls with his floater game probably worked better in previous seasons.

I thought IME had the voice to get through to these guys. His call for 2 captains was quickly dismissed by the players. Most called it a nothing burger, but it still feels like its Marcus Smart's locker room

At what point do we look at the /36 of the main rotational players and ask ourselves why are they regressing? That's my biggest concern
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Thanks for posting.

This team is getting paint touches in the middle but still refuses to kick out for the open step in 3 enough. Marcus looking to draw fouls with his floater game probably worked better in previous seasons.

I thought IME had the voice to get through to these guys. His call for 2 captains was quickly dismissed by the players. Most called it a nothing burger, but it still feels like its Marcus Smart's locker room

At what point do we look at the /36 of the main rotational players and ask ourselves why are they regressing? That's my biggest concern
I don't have time to do a dive into this but isn't it pretty clear that the /36 stats of everyone is regressing because their 4Q stats are so bad?

The Cs are losing and are losing in miserable fashion. It sucks watching it; I'm sure it sucks even more going through this. Yes I know these guys get paid a lot of money but I'm guessing that they want to win too.

I don't think we'll know the answer to the problem until they start winning. Sure Ime can try different things around them but at the end of the days, the Cs are going to sink and swim with Jays. And the Jays - and including Ime - aren't good enough right now.
 

reggiecleveland

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Cool post. Don't we have a thread about the current state of the NBA so we don't have to clutter the Celtics analysis thread with get off my lawn 3z r bad takez?
Yeah look at this dummie that doesn't know how to win!
I find this post funny with the criticism of an older person when we have criticized Pop's protege of trying to be POp and liking the 3 too much at the same time.
https://www.poundingtherock.com/2018/11/29/18118915/gregg-popovich-still-hates-three-pointers
 

benhogan

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HomeRunBaker

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The Cs are 2-11 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. I'm also not going to say that it's random like baseball one-run games as there are obviously very real issues but on the optimistic side, it also means that an improvement down the stretch could have big improvement in their win-loss performance.
Execution down the stretch of basketball games is far different than baseball. There isn’t a whole lot of “luck” involved in winning/losing 1-2 possession basketball games.

Ironically, last night may have been one of them with Barrett’s ridiculous desperation 3-pointer that beat us. I’m not concerned with “blowing a 20-pt lead” as that lead was built on 6(?) consecutive 3-pointers which isn’t sustainable. This wasn’t the issue of “choking” or whatever you want to call it. Ime was correct, nobody stepped up to stop the runs when we needed to and the Knicks executed better in the 4Q. This team has plenty of talent but is a bungle of mess right now. It will be interesting to see what Brad does from now to the deadline.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah look at this dummie that doesn't know how to win!
I find this post funny with the criticism of an older person when we have criticized Pop's protege of trying to be POp and liking the 3 too much at the same time.
https://www.poundingtherock.com/2018/11/29/18118915/gregg-popovich-still-hates-three-pointers
I think if anything we criticize Ime for not having a better 3pt shooting lineup at all times. 3s are good... setting up wide open 3s with your star only to have Schroder, Smart, TL (or Al) as the shooters is bad coaching. 2 guys who can't shoot and are ballhandlers together is bad, 2 guys who can't shoot and are ballhandlers together late game, when neither is going to be the primary initiator is malpractice.
 

NickEsasky

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Execution down the stretch of basketball games is far different than baseball. There isn’t a whole lot of “luck” involved in winning/losing 1-2 possession basketball games.

Ironically, last night may have been one of them with Barrett’s ridiculous desperation 3-pointer that beat us. I’m not concerned with “blowing a 20-pt lead” as that lead was built on 6(?) consecutive 3-pointers which isn’t sustainable. This wasn’t the issue of “choking” or whatever you want to call it. Ime was correct, nobody stepped up to stop the runs when we needed to and the Knicks executed better in the 4Q. This team has plenty of talent but is a bungle of mess right now. It will be interesting to see what Brad does from now to the deadline.
What difference does it make how the lead was made? Once you have it, if you don't play dumb basketball or sleepwalk through the rest of the game on D and stick to running your offense you should be able to hold enough of it to win the game.
 

slamminsammya

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Yeah look at this dummie that doesn't know how to win!
I find this post funny with the criticism of an older person when we have criticized Pop's protege of trying to be POp and liking the 3 too much at the same time.
https://www.poundingtherock.com/2018/11/29/18118915/gregg-popovich-still-hates-three-pointers
I have never criticized Ime for trying to be like Pop or for liking the 3 too much. I just didn't like seeing the drive by zero content post that is typical of those who don't like or follow the NBA. There's an argument to be made about the aesthetics of the game, I just dont think this is the thread for it and I don't find "what would Vitaly Potapenko think?" to be a good contribution to that conversation.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The people who keep claiming that this team is underperforming their talent need to show their work. Its been a season of a half of a .500 or less basketball. What hidden gems are on this roster? What players aren't getting enough looks offensively? What defensive stoppers are being held back?

I can save everyone some time and tell you that if you simply grade out this roster, based on their production, versus the top teams in the league, its not a surprise. They aren't as talented as those squads - if Tatum and Brown are supposed to make an extra pass to the open guy, but that open guy is almost certainly throwing up a brick, is it really a surprise if they try to do it themselves?

This team is Tatum and Brown, a few decent rotation players and the rest is below league average production. Maybe there is a coaching deficiency too but across two different staffs, the results are ~ the same.

If this team has enough talent, its really, really obscured by something else. If their 54-57 record across two seasons isn't enough, what are we missing in traditional or advanced stats that shows the underperformance?
 

Strike4

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SVG said something on the broadcast last night that I can’t help but think may be the reason they’re underperforming: that you can’t underestimate how challenging it can be to have a new coach putting in a new program. He said Ime has them changing from a bunch of iso players to facilitators—Tatum but also Brown and even Smart—and that it’s a really hard but necessary transition that will pay dividends in the long run but in the interim can be really difficult to watch.
This is probably true, but watching it seems like there are more bad ISOs down the stretch than at any other time in the past few years.
 

reggiecleveland

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I have never criticized Ime for trying to be like Pop or for liking the 3 too much. I just didn't like seeing the drive by zero content post that is typical of those who don't like or follow the NBA. There's an argument to be made about the aesthetics of the game, I just dont think this is the thread for it and I don't find "what would Vitaly Potapenko think?" to be a good contribution to that conversation.
I understand, but I found the grouchy old man who doesn't like 3s portrayal and Pop's protege too close not to comment.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I wouldn't say that this 'worked' so much as the Celtics hit 8 straight threes or something like that. In the second half the Knicks started attacking the drop coverage int he pick and roll.
Maybe one of the reasons they hit 8 straight 3's while Enes was in the game, has something to do with Enes being in the game. The spacing looked better, the ball movement was good, etc. Maybe not, like I said, I wasn't hyper focused as I normally would be.

But in the 2nd half, Fournier made a 3 to cut the lead to 81-64. That was on the heels of a Tatum turnover. Immediately after that 3, Al Horford made a bad pass and turned it over. At the whistle, Ime brought in Enes with 3:30 to go in the quarter. Fournier made another 3, then Schroeder made 1 of 2 at the line, then Quickley missed a 3, then Schroder missed a shot, then Quickley made a 3. Enes got benched, and that was the end of his night. He played 1 minute in the 2nd half, and the C's got outscored 6-1 (C's only had 2 offensive possessions to 3 for the Knicks). He left the game at 82-70, and the C's went on to lose, so it's not like whatever Ime did after that made a damn bit of difference in the end. It was like watching 10 other games on a loop from this season.

I'm not saying Enes would have dragged them to victory, but if Ime wants to keep playing bigs, he needs to stop giving TL and Al a combined 65 minutes every night. These guys just can't sustain that level of usage, especially Al. Maybe Ime shouldn't be playing drop/switch everything when he doesn't have the guys on the floor that can do it, or we can just blame the guys on the floor. Enes not staying with a guy like Quickley or Fournier is probably Enes' fault, and not the fault of the guy who is asking him to do it.

We need a change, I don't care if it's a big one, or on the margins, and I'm talking about during games. Ime needs to do something to stop the bleeding in these games. But whatever, I'm resigned at this point. I'll watch them like Jets fans watch their team. Maybe we'll get butt fumble play soon.
 

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What difference does it make how the lead was made? Once you have it, if you don't play dumb basketball or sleepwalk through the rest of the game on D and stick to running your offense you should be able to hold enough of it to win the game.
What is “dumb” though? The 3’s missed in the 2H were the ones made in the 2Q. Which were dumb and which weren’t? I’m not excusing losing a 20+ pt lead but the sole reason the Knicks were down 20 was from the 6 straight 3’s…….so when Fournier makes 6 on the other end which team was “dumb” and which wasn’t? There is a shit ton of variance in 3-pt shooting……look at the shot Barrett made.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Maybe one of the reasons they hit 8 straight 3's while Enes was in the game, has something to do with Enes being in the game. The spacing looked better, the ball movement was good, etc. Maybe not, like I said, I wasn't hyper focused as I normally would be.

But in the 2nd half, Fournier made a 3 to cut the lead to 81-64. That was on the heels of a Tatum turnover. Immediately after that 3, Al Horford made a bad pass and turned it over. At the whistle, Ime brought in Enes with 3:30 to go in the quarter. Fournier made another 3, then Schroeder made 1 of 2 at the line, then Quickley missed a 3, then Schroder missed a shot, then Quickley made a 3. Enes got benched, and that was the end of his night. He played 1 minute in the 2nd half, and the C's got outscored 6-1 (C's only had 2 offensive possessions to 3 for the Knicks). He left the game at 82-70, and the C's went on to lose, so it's not like whatever Ime did after that made a damn bit of difference in the end. It was like watching 10 other games on a loop from this season.

I'm not saying Enes would have dragged them to victory, but if Ime wants to keep playing bigs, he needs to stop giving TL and Al a combined 65 minutes every night. These guys just can't sustain that level of usage, especially Al. Maybe Ime shouldn't be playing drop/switch everything when he doesn't have the guys on the floor that can do it, or we can just blame the guys on the floor. Enes not staying with a guy like Quickley or Fournier is probably Enes' fault, and not the fault of the guy who is asking him to do it.

We need a change, I don't care if it's a big one, or on the margins, and I'm talking about during games. Ime needs to do something to stop the bleeding in these games. But whatever, I'm resigned at this point. I'll watch them like Jets fans watch their team. Maybe we'll get butt fumble play soon.
Agreed. The offense is for sure better with Enes in there. He is the best screener on the team by a mile. He grabs offensive boards. That stretch of the season where the Celtics were winning was when he was playing more. And it isn't like going to Rob or Al stopper Fournier from getting shots. Go under screen, switch big to perimeter, every time down the floor. None of the bigs could impact his shooting. I don't think Enes is a 30 minute per game guy or anything, and he isn't going to be a playoff guy, but he has a positive impact when he is in and can win games in the regular season.

Really Horford is the elephant in the room right now. He was brought in to be a vet presence and he has not been successful as a leader. His on court game is deteriorating by the week after an excellent start of the season. I hope Brad can use his salary to bring in someone else.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I agree that Kanter being in the game impacts spacing a bit. But he was also horrific defensively--they hunt him on PnR and it results in a bunch of good looks. I'd use him situationally a bit more than Ime does---I think Kanter is the best chot-creator on the second unit---but he is a flawed and limited player whose contribution does really depend on matchups.
 

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Crediting Kanter being on the floor while not involved in a made 3-pointer is how we jump the shark now in the Port Cellar. C’mon now. What’s next…..crediting him for generating a missed open look on the other end?
 

Auger34

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SVG said something on the broadcast last night that I can’t help but think may be the reason they’re underperforming: that you can’t underestimate how challenging it can be to have a new coach putting in a new program. He said Ime has them changing from a bunch of iso players to facilitators—Tatum but also Brown and even Smart—and that it’s a really hard but necessary transition that will pay dividends in the long run but in the interim can be really difficult to watch.

Outside of “They’re a bunch of gutless losers” (which doesn’t seem to the be the case) I’m inclined to think that’s the reason. I can’t watch this team massively underperform their FG and 3P %ages without thinking that they all have too much shit in their heads on any given play.
Isn’t it the head coach who is questioning their mental fortitude, leadership and “guts”?
 

NickEsasky

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What is “dumb” though? The 3’s missed in the 2H were the ones made in the 2Q. Which were dumb and which weren’t? I’m not excusing losing a 20+ pt lead but the sole reason the Knicks were down 20 was from the 6 straight 3’s…….so when Fournier makes 6 on the other end which team was “dumb” and which wasn’t? There is a shit ton of variance in 3-pt shooting……look at the shot Barrett made.
Like I get what you are saying. Building the lead was fluky off hot shooting and runs happen all the time in the NBA, but my point is that teams with a 16+ point lead at the half generally win like 90% of the time right? I am having trouble finding anything official but a 20 point lead is usually 95-97% as best as I can find, so as long as you don't choke down the stretch you SHOULD win that game regardless of how the lead was built. That's all I am saying.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Crediting Kanter being on the floor while not involved in a made 3-pointer is how we jump the shark now in the Port Cellar. C’mon now. What’s next…..crediting him for generating a missed open look on the other end?
So I guess we just keep running Al and TL out there for 35 minutes, blowing 15 point leads down the stretch and watch as our two best players decide to walk in the next 2+ years.

Because trying nothing is somehow worse than what we're seeing now....
 

Deathofthebambino

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Like I get what you are saying. Building the lead was fluky off hot shooting and runs happen all the time in the NBA, but my point is that teams with a 16+ point lead at the half generally win like 90% of the time right? I am having trouble finding anything official but a 20 point lead is usually 95-97% as best as I can find, so as long as you don't choke down the stretch you SHOULD win that game regardless of how the lead was built. That's all I am saying.
it wasn't 20. It was a 24 point lead, then a new 20 point lead in the 2nd half.
 

NickEsasky

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it wasn't 20. It was a 24 point lead, then a new 20 point lead in the 2nd half.
Thank you. I didn't actually see the game so I wasn't entirely sure, but given that it was over 20 wouldn't that help make my point stronger? Who cares how you build a lead, in the NBA historically when you get one that big you shouldn't lose very often.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Thank you. I didn't actually see the game so I wasn't entirely sure, but given that it was over 20 wouldn't that help make my point stronger? Who cares how you build a lead, in the NBA historically when you get one that big you shouldn't lose very often.
Oh yeah, I was just reinforcing your point. Every team goes on a run, no lead is safe, blah, blah, blah. I've heard it all this season (and last).

Frankly, when I read people talking about how Tatum is standing around and doing nothing when he doesn't have the ball, or Jaylen saying in the presser that we're not moving, etc., all I can think about is the hundreds of times I pointed out over the past couple of years the same thing.

Brad's entire offense was PnR at the top with a big and Tatum/Brown/Kemba/Kyrie, etc. and 3 other guys standing around. Over and over again. Sometimes, it would work like when Al and Kyrie were playing off each other, but this offense, IMO, doesn't look much different than any of Brad's offenses, with the exception of the 10-15 possessions per half that they remember Ime wants them to pass and move quickly. Fucking Groundhog Day every night, the basketball version.

The nice part is though, if the C's have a big lead, fade the fuck out of them in live betting from there. It's about as easy money as anything you'll find.
 

Cellar-Door

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The people who keep claiming that this team is underperforming their talent need to show their work. Its been a season of a half of a .500 or less basketball. What hidden gems are on this roster? What players aren't getting enough looks offensively? What defensive stoppers are being held back?

I can save everyone some time and tell you that if you simply grade out this roster, based on their production, versus the top teams in the league, its not a surprise. They aren't as talented as those squads - if Tatum and Brown are supposed to make an extra pass to the open guy, but that open guy is almost certainly throwing up a brick, is it really a surprise if they try to do it themselves?

This team is Tatum and Brown, a few decent rotation players and the rest is below league average production. Maybe there is a coaching deficiency too but across two different staffs, the results are ~ the same.

If this team has enough talent, its really, really obscured by something else. If their 54-57 record across two seasons isn't enough, what are we missing in traditional or advanced stats that shows the underperformance?
I think they are both underperforming their talent AND don't have true contender talent.

This team when the stars were healthy (except Kemba who was never going to be healthy) played at a .550 or so level last year, this year they are worse.

Looking at roster:

Out- Tristan Thompson, Evan Fournier (16 games), Kemba Walker, Carsen Edwards. (If we count mid-season losses add Theis and Teague)
In- Al Horford, Dennis Schroder, Josh Richardson, Enes, Juancho

To me, that's a talent upgrade. Horford is better than Thompson, Schroder is better than Kemba probably, Janch and Carson don't play, Fournier is maybe better than Richardson but we also only had him for 16 games. Enes is a body.

I think on talent this should be a team that wins 55-60% of their games last year that puts you in the 4-6 seed range, this year the 5/6 slot. We're performing well behind that number, and we haven't been better when our stars are healthy (actually worse).

So yeah, this isn't a title contender, but it also on talent should be better. Yes they don't have a third star, but the also go 8 deep on guys who were playoff starters in the last few years. The Celtics should be fighting for the 4 seed not the last play-in spot on talent.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think they are both underperforming their talent AND don't have true contender talent.

This team when the stars were healthy (except Kemba who was never going to be healthy) played at a .550 or so level last year, this year they are worse.

Looking at roster:

Out- Tristan Thompson, Evan Fournier (16 games), Kemba Walker, Carsen Edwards. (If we count mid-season losses add Theis and Teague)
In- Al Horford, Dennis Schroder, Josh Richardson, Enes, Juancho

To me, that's a talent upgrade. Horford is better than Thompson, Schroder is better than Kemba probably, Janch and Carson don't play, Fournier is maybe better than Richardson but we also only had him for 16 games. Enes is a body.

I think on talent this should be a team that wins 55-60% of their games last year that puts you in the 4-6 seed range, this year the 5/6 slot. We're performing well behind that number, and we haven't been better when our stars are healthy (actually worse).

So yeah, this isn't a title contender, but it also on talent should be better. Yes they don't have a third star, but the also go 8 deep on guys who were playoff starters in the last few years. The Celtics should be fighting for the 4 seed not the last play-in spot on talent.
This all may be correct - and to be clear, on paper I agree with you - but if you look at the individual production, it doesn't support the idea that they upgraded in talent. They got better in some areas and worse in others. Aside from us feeling that way, there is no way to support the position that this team is more talented than last season. And last season they were a .500 team.

Edit: You can certainly Van the data with SSS sword to make individual cases but the sum of everything is that they are a middling team, talent-wise.
 

joe dokes

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I'll note that while the Cs ball movement is marginally better since the beginning of the season, I'm beginning to focus more on player movement. As JB mentioned after the SAS loss, players stand around on the offensive end. A lot. Tatum, in particularly, does nothing on offense when he doesn't have the ball.

The stats bear this out. NBA.com says that the Cs have the 2nd lowest average speed on offense - behind only LAL - and have the 4th lowest distance on offense in the league - behind LAL, BRK, and LAC. (Just by way of comparison, CHI has the 5th lowest distance but is middle in the pack in speed. SAS, which I'm sure Ime would like to emulate, is first in both categories.)

Ime has his work cut out for him.
This is what I see. The ball does seem to be moving more more often. The players, not nearly as much. I get putting the guy into the corner to hit a corner 3. But there are 2 corners, if if the guy hasn't gotten the ball yet, he should go to the other corner. Just fucking move. You move, a defender moves. and probably a teammate. And another defender.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So I guess we just keep running Al and TL out there for 35 minutes, blowing 15 point leads down the stretch and watch as our two best players decide to walk in the next 2+ years.

Because trying nothing is somehow worse than what we're seeing now....
I agree that adjustments should have been made but when the Knicks are running everything through Fournier and he has it going the last guy I want on the floor in this scenario is Kanter. The ideal option to protect a lead and trying to slow down Fournier would be a long, athletic wing defender……it’s a shame we didn’t have one on the bench who has been in our rotation all year.
 

slamminsammya

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This all may be correct - and to be clear, on paper I agree with you - but if you look at the individual production, it doesn't support the idea that they upgraded in talent. They got better in some areas and worse in others. Aside from us feeling that way, there is no way to support the position that this team is more talented than last season. And last season they were a .500 team.

Edit: You can certainly Van the data with SSS sword to make individual cases but the sum of everything is that they are a middling team, talent-wise.
Pointing to the production on paper as indicating the individual talent is performing to its level as opposed to underperforming is kind of question begging. Part of thinking the team is underperforming is thinking guys actual on paper production is below what they are platonically capable of.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I agree that adjustments should have been made but when the Knicks are running everything through Fournier and he has it going the last guy I want on the floor in this scenario is Kanter. The ideal option to protect a lead and trying to slow down Fournier would be a long, athletic wing defender……it’s a shame we didn’t have one on the bench who has been in our rotation all year.
Even if Ime put in a long, athletic wing defender, like say, Jayson Tatum, he would probably get switched off so Al or TL or Grant could cover Fournier. I realize Kanter is a black hole on defense, especially in Ime's switch-everything system, but at least the offense seems to flow better when he's out there at times, as it did last night.

Instead, our defense plays like shit when he's not out there, and our offense plays like shit (42 points in the 2nd half) too. I just didn't notice any defensive upgrade in the 2nd half last night based on the 1 minute that Kanter played and the 23 minutes he didn't play. I did notice the offense looking as good as it has all year when he put up a +17 in 10 minutes in the 1st half though. In that same first half, TL was a -1 in 13 minutes. Then Ime ran TL and AL out there in the 2nd half for a combined 37 minutes and they went -12 and -9.

Nobody was stopping Fournier in Ime's system last night (or DeJounte Murray, or Terrence Ross or Luke Kennard or Jaylen Nowell or Seth Curry or Andrew Wiggins and on and on and on, even fucking Kemba lit us up a couple weeks ago), but maybe Kanter can lead to an additional two buckets on the other end and the game turns out differently.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Pointing to the production on paper as indicating the individual talent is performing to its level as opposed to underperforming is kind of question begging. Part of thinking the team is underperforming is thinking guys actual on paper production is below what they are platonically capable of.
Perhaps both Udoka and Stevens held some/all of these players back with their bad coaching - that is entirely possible.

At what point, across two entirely different coaching regimes are people willing concede that this is who the roster is at present (these things are dynamic of course - a leap or a change in personnel may unlock something)? Dismissing last season's results as a function of the pandemic was a lot easier back in October and even into November. Not so much now.

In short, its hard not to conclude that this team simply doesn't have the talent to overcome a down Tatum year and do anything other than what they are doing. This is who this roster is. Again, if someone can make a case supported by anything other than an opinion (and again, I held the view that they were better than last year's squad to start the season), please do so.
 

benhogan

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I agree that adjustments should have been made but when the Knicks are running everything through Fournier and he has it going the last guy I want on the floor in this scenario is Kanter. The ideal option to protect a lead and trying to slow down Fournier would be a long, athletic wing defender……it’s a shame we didn’t have one on the bench who has been in our rotation all year.
an emotionless Romeo doesn't even react... but you know we needed all those minutes from our BIGs since Taj Gibson and Mitchell Robinson are such huge threats offensively

you were on Team Blow-It-Up a few weeks back, anything change your mind?

If Brad changes the pieces do we trust IME to use them properly? because I don't.

IME is pressing big time
 
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