Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

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It isn’t nonsense at all. It was well chronicled here last year. Earned opportunity with work ethic, showed something in games with hustle, stopped producing, removed from rotation……it occurred at least 3x possibly 4 but I had lost count. He played at the end of the season out of necessity when Romeo was getting 35 min in a playoff game bc we had no bodies or he may have again lost those minutes. Fast forward to this year……first two games nothing short of a train wreck, benched again, given another opportunity, showed energy……

It’s a pretty clear trend. Maybe he’ll figure it out but it is far from a certainty.
The thing is, Nesmith generally played well late in the regular season, whatever the reasons for his insertion in the rotation. He was anything but a trainwreck. He was often one of the brighter spots in an other miserable season.

He had very few good moments for the first two-thirds of last season, but once he earned Stevens' trust Nesmith usually showed more good than bad.

He was 15 for 34 from beyond the arc in the final 12 regular-season games. That's pretty freaking good, especially on a team that was in dire need of shooting.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Well, there will be minutes available for Nesmith!

Zach Lowe had Scal on his podcast and he mentioned the jump from near the bottom to 9th in DRtg.

Lowe also mentioned this: when switching pick and rolls Celtics defense is very good, around 0.7/0.8 points per possession. It gets somewhat worse if you account for offensive rebounding but still not bad.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well, there will be minutes available for Nesmith!
There always have been that’s why AN keeps getting opportunities. He truly controls his own destiny on whether he sticks or not. Neither Brad or Ime buried him, he keeps burying himself. He needs to keep these minutes by playing like he did in Miami and not like he did in the first two games.
 

benhogan

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There always have been that’s why AN keeps getting opportunities. He truly controls his own destiny on whether he sticks or not. Neither Brad or Ime buried him, he keeps burying himself. He needs to keep these minutes by playing like he did in Miami and not like he did in the first two games.
If Nesmith and Langford continue to play as they did in Miami we'll find Tatum vying for 6th man of the year :oops:
 

lovegtm

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It isn’t nonsense at all. It was well chronicled here last year. Earned opportunity with work ethic, showed something in games with hustle, stopped producing, removed from rotation……it occurred at least 3x possibly 4 but I had lost count. He played at the end of the season out of necessity when Romeo was getting 35 min in a playoff game bc we had no bodies or he may have again lost those minutes. Fast forward to this year……first two games nothing short of a train wreck, benched again, given another opportunity, showed energy……

It’s a pretty clear trend. Maybe he’ll figure it out but it is far from a certainty.
If a young guy shows that he can do something, but is inconsistent with it, you generally bet on him gaining that consistency/comfort. That's a lot of what maturing as an NBA player is about.

Incidentally, this is why I was optimistic on Romeo towards the end of last year: the results weren't there yet, but he clearly was getting way less panicked in the flow of the offense. Once a young guy finds that consistency/comfort, that leads to playing time and then thing compound rapidly. Then you hit the phase where you need to add new elements to your game to improve further, and that's a much harder ask (part of why Jaylen's career has been so impressive to me).
 

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If a young guy shows that he can do something, but is inconsistent with it, you generally bet on him gaining that consistency/comfort. That's a lot of what maturing as an NBA player is about.
Yeah sure if you’re a lottery team you can keep running this guy out there. When you are competing for the playoffs and championships while adding veterans where there is competition for playing time you play the player who earns the job and gives your team the best chance to win. Otherwise, the coach is surely going to lose the team.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah sure if you’re a lottery team you can keep running this guy out there. When you are competing for the playoffs and championships while adding veterans where there is competition for playing time you play the player who earns the job and gives your team the best chance to win. Otherwise, the coach is surely going to lose the team.
We're saying the same thing. I'm talking about whether the guy gets things together in the medium/longer term. Agree that those players don't get long leashes on a good team, which is challenging for pace of development.
 

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I saw a game of summer league where he looked like a mess, getting abused on defense (I think first game against the Hawks), but he settled down after that. He's got a nice stroke. He's got that Duncan Robinson-type height that makes it easier to get that shot off, and a nice-looking stroke. The Celts definitely want to keep an eye on him, considering they don't have much for a three-point marksman right now.
 

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Well that sucked lol.

But big picture wise, Tatum looking like all nba Tatum again is the most important thing to come out of that game. And Richardson played a pretty damn good game, especially defensively.
 

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Now that they are actually putting in effort, you can see what PBS was envisioning this offseason.

Still plenty of work to do to clear some dead weight, make use of the TPEs and so on, but we’ve moved from unwatchable to credible and have the flexibility to improve.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Throws up a ridiculous shot looking for a foul he doesn’t get then committing one of the dumbest fouls I’ve ever seen that led to the Doncic GWer.
He got contact while KP was moving and he threw the ball towards the basket to make it a shooting foul. He should have got that call.

On the foul, there's something about Marcus and the clock. It's like that game last season when the other team had .1 on the shot clock and it was a jump ball and he threw the ball at the basket thinking Cs had .1 seconds.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I saw a game of summer league where he looked like a mess, getting abused on defense (I think first game against the Hawks), but he settled down after that. He's got a nice stroke. He's got that Duncan Robinson-type height that makes it easier to get that shot off, and a nice-looking stroke. The Celts definitely want to keep an eye on him, considering they don't have much for a three-point marksman right now.
He was switched onto Sharife Cooper several times in that SL game which made him look way worse the. He is on that end. I actually liked his positional defense against non-quicks but he’s got a ways to go before he’s an NBA player.
 

RedOctober3829

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He got contact while KP was moving and he threw the ball towards the basket to make it a shooting foul. He should have got that call.

On the foul, there's something about Marcus and the clock. It's like that game last season when the other team had .1 on the shot clock and it was a jump ball and he threw the ball at the basket thinking Cs had .1 seconds.
Marcus Smart is not getting that call however. He’s not Steph or KD. Still, taking that kind of risk with that play when you’ve hit Tatum on the floor is just another example of Smart not staying in his lane. Let Tatum have the ball in that situation.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Marcus Smart is not getting that call however. He’s not Steph or KD. Still, taking that kind of risk with that play when you’ve hit Tatum on the floor is just another example of Smart not staying in his lane. Let Tatum have the ball in that situation.
Video of the play can be found here (red x to left of FT lane): Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

JT was double-teamed and got rid of the ball. Ball was swung to Smart, who got it with about 11 seconds left. KP closed. MS attacked the double-team, got fouled, and didn't get the call. Because he was fouled, he was going to the floor. He was likely going to lose the ball anyways. Maybe if he kept the ball he would have gotten the call but that's just acting on instinct/habit.

JT didn't move at first and then made a last second cut. Maybe if MS sees him, he makes a superhuman play and pushes the ball to JT. Maybe if MS isn't hip-checked by KP that's the normal play for MS and JT gets a wide-open jumper.

There's enough to criticize MS about. I'm not going to include that play. Also at some point the Cs are going to have to force Luka to his right hand on those plays. He would much rather step-back to the left than right.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Video of the play can be found here (red x to left of FT lane): Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

JT was double-teamed and got rid of the ball. Ball was swung to Smart, who got it with about 11 seconds left. KP closed. MS attacked the double-team, got fouled, and didn't get the call. Because he was fouled, he was going to the floor. He was likely going to lose the ball anyways. Maybe if he kept the ball he would have gotten the call but that's just acting on instinct/habit.

JT didn't move at first and then made a last second cut. Maybe if MS sees him, he makes a superhuman play and pushes the ball to JT. Maybe if MS isn't hip-checked by KP that's the normal play for MS and JT gets a wide-open jumper.

There's enough to criticize MS about. I'm not going to include that play. Also at some point the Cs are going to have to force Luka to his right hand on those plays. He would much rather step-back to the left than right.
It was a strange night for Marcus. He took only five shots all night (still too many for the Marcus shoots too much crowd of course), one of which was a three that gave the Celtics a 2 point lead at the end of the 4th. That shot was generated by finding the open man after Tatum was doubled, and is the kind of 3 Marcus should take.

At the very least there should have been a floor foul called on the play you describe.

The decision to foul Doncic was just stupid.
 

Eddie Jurak

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A lot of positives from yesterday's game.

The biggest one was Tatum, who was locked in and played with confidence. He shot well (12-19, 6-8 from 3 on the way to 32 points) Dallas threw numerous traps and double teams at him which he mostly passed out of with ease (just 1 turnover). Added 11 rebounds. Only 2 assists, but that number alone greatly understates how important his passing was in this game. The Mavs challenged him with multiple defenders all game long and one way or another they paid for it, at least from the second quarter on.

Late in the game, Tatum played some excellent man defense on Doncic, the Celtics also did a lot of trapping of Doncic, who struggled with that at times.

Probably Schroder's best game as a C. Offense from him was a key part of the 4th quarter comeback.

Richardson came back and was a key part of the defensive effort.

Nesmith struggled, missing all his shots.

Celtics really struggled from three again, except for Tatum. Tatum: 6-8; Rest of Team: 3-23.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He got contact while KP was moving and he threw the ball towards the basket to make it a shooting foul. He should have got that call.

On the foul, there's something about Marcus and the clock. It's like that game last season when the other team had .1 on the shot clock and it was a jump ball and he threw the ball at the basket thinking Cs had .1 seconds.
During the course of the game he’d get that call. Few refs blow the whistle in a tie game with :30 to go. I don’t blame Smart as that is the correct play to ensure a 2-for-1 in a difficult spot he was put in but it was standard end-of-game NBA defense against ball movement. These are the times of the game you cannot move the ball…..you need to iso or PNR your best player as the Mavs did with Doncic to ensure you get off a shot. Otherwise you end up with Smart taking lunging shots in the lane at a point of the game when the refs swallow their whistle. It’s a bad set that was called.
 

Eddie Jurak

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During the course of the game he’d get that call. Few refs blow the whistle in a tie game with :30 to go. I don’t blame Smart as that is the correct play to ensure a 2-for-1 in a difficult spot he was put in but it was standard end-of-game NBA defense against ball movement. These are the times of the game you cannot move the ball…..you need to iso or PNR your best player as the Mavs did with Doncic to ensure you get off a shot. Otherwise you end up with Smart taking lunging shots in the lane at a point of the game when the refs swallow their whistle. It’s a bad set that was called.
It seemed to me that Smart clearly felt the foul and tried to throw the shot up to make it a shooting foul. Maybe he would have been better served to just play through?
 

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Pretty clearly a bad no-call on Smart, even with 30 seconds left that gets whistled 80% of the time and rightly so. Smart flailing around probably hurt him on getting the whistle there, as does his rep. Very tough break for Cs.

Still a lot of execution misses for Cs late in games, though D and second half play were pleasant surprises. Overall some progress in spite of the L
 

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Did Tatum come out at all in the last quarter? It seemed like he must have played the last 10 minutes without a break as I kept looking for him to get a breather.

Not a good game for Nesmith - some mistakes and a pretty unlucky foul (that late play he wasn't even looking in the direction of the person he fouled).

Horford continues to brick from 3 (as did most of the team aside from Tatum).
 

lovegtm

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Did Tatum come out at all in the last quarter? It seemed like he must have played the last 10 minutes without a break as I kept looking for him to get a breather.

Not a good game for Nesmith - some mistakes and a pretty unlucky foul (that late play he wasn't even looking in the direction of the person he fouled).

Horford continues to brick from 3 (as did most of the team aside from Tatum).
Honestly, the poor shooting combined with somewhat consistent defense is more encouraging for me than anything. The Celtics aren't a great shooting team, but they're nowhere close to as bad as they've been some of these nights. If you shoot merely mediocrely and play good defense, good things happen over the course of a season.
 

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Did Tatum come out at all in the last quarter? It seemed like he must have played the last 10 minutes without a break as I kept looking for him to get a breather.

Not a good game for Nesmith - some mistakes and a pretty unlucky foul (that late play he wasn't even looking in the direction of the person he fouled).

Horford continues to brick from 3 (as did most of the team aside from Tatum).
Tatum came out at the 3:35 mark in the 3rd, went back in at the 1:57 mark, and played the rest of the way.

I’m not talking about this place, but the amount of places that think this dude doesn’t care enough about winning are crazy.
 

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Thought Tatum sounded more like a leader than I can remember, in the postgame presser. There was a lot of good quotes, but this answer to a question from Weiss about why he’s been posting about his struggles on Instagram was excellent IMO.

“I understand that I got a platform. I have been who I am and a lot of people look at what I say and what I do and a lot of kids look up to me. I think addressing, not always just the 60- and 50-point games and those big moments, your favorite player struggles. They miss shots, they go in slumps. Understanding that I’m gonna figure it out. I don’t doubt myself.

“It’s a process, but it is frustrating that you, not necessarily worry about what people say about you, but the pressure that I put on myself, the goals I want to obtain doesn’t have anything to do with how good people think I am or how bad they think I’m playing. It’s always internal and me trying to be as great as I want to be, you go through tough times. But not to ever shy away from it. You’ve got to be the same person when you’re scoring 60 and the same person when you’re 3-for-15 and you’re losing a couple games and everybody’s looking at you.

“I think everybody saw the quote that Dame (Lillard) had, ‘Tough times, they show your true character.’ I think that was spot-on. You’ve always gotta stand on that and keep your head high through the ups and downs. It’s just a part of it.”
 

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It seemed to me that Smart clearly felt the foul and tried to throw the shot up to make it a shooting foul. Maybe he would have been better served to just play through?
If he could have beaten KP to a better angle it would have required help from the top to get J-Rich a look from 3 but it’s just a tough spot that Smart was put in there.
 

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If he could have beaten KP to a better angle it would have required help from the top to get J-Rich a look from 3 but it’s just a tough spot that Smart was put in there.
there was an earlier play where KP blocked a guard in a drive close to hoop—I think smart but maybe Schroder? To your point that is part of what I imagine was in Smart’s mind seeking contact
 

NomarsFool

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Tatum came out at the 3:35 mark in the 3rd, went back in at the 1:57 mark, and played the rest of the way.
That's a long stretch. He seemed to keep bringing the energy in the 4th, though. He was passing out of the doubles pretty well, although they always seem a little nerve-wracking as a fan since they don't usually look pretty.
 

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That's a long stretch. He seemed to keep bringing the energy in the 4th, though. He was passing out of the doubles pretty well, although they always seem a little nerve-wracking as a fan since they don't usually look pretty.
I thought this game was the best Tatum has looked in a while, maybe all year, in all aspects. Some nice defense on Doncic late. His shot was more dialed in that it has been recently, and he was getting to the rim. And the Mavs threw a lot of doubles at him, which he recognized and passed out of fairly easily. Sometimes players seem flustered by the doubles, but Tatum did not in this game.
 

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I thought this game was the best Tatum has looked in a while, maybe all year, in all aspects. Some nice defense on Doncic late. His shot was more dialed in that it has been recently, and he was getting to the rim. And the Mavs threw a lot of doubles at him, which he recognized and passed out of fairly easily. Sometimes players seem flustered by the doubles, but Tatum did not in this game.
It seems like they are embracing a different offensive approach this season: the aggressive drive and kick after the D collapses is replacing the stand around hero ball or hoping that basic ball rotation will leave an open J (it usually doesn’t seem to).
 

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That was maybe the best game I've seen from Tatum, in terms of decision making. When to go to the stepback, when to drive, when to pass, were always the right decision. In the fourth quarter, he was attacking quickly, before the double team could come; and if it did, he made the right play by passing out of it, often to a teammate in position to attack 4-on-3. They used Horford quite a bit in the Draymond role - take the pass from Tatum in the middle of the floor and get the defense in rotation.
 

Eddie Jurak

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That was maybe the best game I've seen from Tatum, in terms of decision making. When to go to the stepback, when to drive, when to pass, were always the right decision. In the fourth quarter, he was attacking quickly, before the double team could come; and if it did, he made the right play by passing out of it, often to a teammate in position to attack 4-on-3. They used Horford quite a bit in the Draymond role - take the pass from Tatum in the middle of the floor and get the defense in rotation.
Yes. What encouraged me is that Tatum seemed to handle the traps so effortlessly even as traps were giving Doncic fits at the other end.
 

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There always have been that’s why AN keeps getting opportunities. He truly controls his own destiny on whether he sticks or not. Neither Brad or Ime buried him, he keeps burying himself. He needs to keep these minutes by playing like he did in Miami and not like he did in the first two games.
AN followed up his nice game with a goose egg on 0-5 shooting in 21 min. Story of his career to this point. Sigh.


That was maybe the best game I've seen from Tatum, in terms of decision making. When to go to the stepback, when to drive, when to pass, were always the right decision. In the fourth quarter, he was attacking quickly, before the double team could come; and if it did, he made the right play by passing out of it, often to a teammate in position to attack 4-on-3. They used Horford quite a bit in the Draymond role - take the pass from Tatum in the middle of the floor and get the defense in rotation.
You never know what motivates a player. Return to a city where you once played, going up against a coach who benched you……or maybe in this case it was going up against Doncic that Tatum viewed this as a big challenge to get up for. A flat game this week against Toronto wouldn’t surprise me. Game within the game and all that stuff.
 

HomeRunBaker

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"To this point" is 60 games.
Exactly. We are at the point where it’s decision time whether to extend him long-term or include him in a trade as filler as soon as the deadline. This is the time when a GM is forming his opinion on the player so the next month or two are crucial in this process and for the player as well with other teams scouts forming theirs also.
 

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Bernardoni doesn’t address that when you start both it greatly affects the rotations that offset the positives.
In what way... do you mean the 67 minutes neither played? I guess, but this is with multiple OTs, and 3 total games missed between them. Two bigs works, the team is really good in those minutes. If you can do it in a way to balance so that you have minimal 0 big lineups it makes a lot of sense. If that costs a few minutes of our mediocre wings... that isn't an issue to me at all.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In what way... do you mean the 67 minutes neither played? I guess, but this is with multiple OTs, and 3 total games missed between them. Two bigs works, the team is really good in those minutes. If you can do it in a way to balance so that you have minimal 0 big lineups it makes a lot of sense. If that costs a few minutes of our mediocre wings... that isn't an issue to me at all.
Yes def in the rotations without them but also in the awkward lineups when you have to stagger which isn’t always controllable due to foul trouble, matchups, etc.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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In what way... do you mean the 67 minutes neither played? I guess, but this is with multiple OTs, and 3 total games missed between them. Two bigs works, the team is really good in those minutes. If you can do it in a way to balance so that you have minimal 0 big lineups it makes a lot of sense. If that costs a few minutes of our mediocre wings... that isn't an issue to me at all.
The minutes are so small that the TOR blow-out (smurf line-up in 2Q IIRC and the garbage time minutes) probably skews the numbers a bit.

Still, my memory believes that the only non-Al, non-TL lineup that BOS has run out has GW or JP at the 5. That lineup is generally going to have problems IMO.

I guess JH really does suck.
 

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The minutes are so small that the TOR blow-out (smurf line-up in 2Q IIRC and the garbage time minutes) probably skews the numbers a bit.

Still, my memory believes that the only non-Al, non-TL lineup that BOS has run out has GW or JP at the 5. That lineup is generally going to have problems IMO.

I guess JH really does suck.
Not to mention Fernando and Kanter. Can we call up Kornet?
 

Cesar Crespo

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The minutes are so small that the TOR blow-out (smurf line-up in 2Q IIRC and the garbage time minutes) probably skews the numbers a bit.

Still, my memory believes that the only non-Al, non-TL lineup that BOS has run out has GW or JP at the 5. That lineup is generally going to have problems IMO.

I guess JH really does suck.
He is sooooo bad. I watched a lot of Nuggets basketball over the year and the only thing he can do is shoot... and not that well.

I'd prefer is brother, he at least has legit size.

edit: I'll never get the Kornet appeal either, even if Chilidawg is joking.
 

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I was joking, as he's not even on a 2-way. That said I actually thought he looked decent last year, moves pretty well defensively and is obviously very long. He can't defend in the post, and for a stretch guy he hasn't shot well for a while. If his shot improves I think he's useful.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was joking, as he's not even on a 2-way. That said I actually thought he looked decent last year, moves pretty well defensively and is obviously very long. He can't defend in the post, and for a stretch guy he hasn't shot well for a while. If his shot improves I think he's useful.
I think he's an affiliate player though, or something weird where the C's have first dibs.