Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

[NomarsFool]

I'd much rather see Brad give one of the 3 centers a game off each time, and simply split 24 minutes between the two remaining BIGS. The 2 BIG lineup is awful - everyone seems to be able to see that, and the numbers back it up. Yes, it's early - but it doesn't seem to make any sense other than doing it to find a way to get TT some additional minutes. It's clear that CBS doesn't think it's his best lineup - as he hasn't used it much to close out games in crunch time (it might have happened once - can't remember for sure).

Yes, Nesmith hasn't looked great out there - but he needs experience, and the team isn't practicing hardly at all these days. He's not going to get any better just sitting on the bench. I'd like to see a bit more Nesmith and potentially even - gasp - Semi out there to see who can play some wing minutes. With Romeo out, now is the time to try and evaluate what those two can add to the team. I'm getting a bit tired of watching PP try and guard people 6-8" taller than him (not a knock on him - I just don't think he should be used at the #2).

 

[lovegtm]

Nesmith: I understand people wanting him to play, but if he's not close to being ready, playing him for real minutes now could actually be worse for his development long term. It's best if he learns good habits and learns to make good plays first; otherwise, there's a real chance his confidence could get shot, and his key asset, his shot, goes with it. While formal practice time may be limited during the regular season, there are still other chances for him through informal workouts and shoot-arounds with teammates. For example, there's nothing to stop the myriad of assistants on the coaching staff from organizing workouts with Edwards, Waters, Nesmith and Romeo (when healthy). Nesmith hasn't played any hoops since January, and hasn't had a summer league or pre-season, and some players really benefit from those extra sessions. We need to remember that Nesmith's development is a long term investment that goes well beyond this season.

Theis/Thompson pairing: How much leash do we give Brad here? I personally think the first 20 games are an extended pre-season to a large extent; going 10-10, or, gasp, 8-12 would hardly doom the team's season. And maybe there will be benefit if he can get the pairing to be more effective.

Yeah, all I can think is that against Milwaukee, Indy and mayyybbbeee Philly the lineup could be useful. My thoughts are well-known, but I'm going to lay off it for awhile since, as you note, it won't make or break the season.

 

[lovegtm]

Brown 28.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists. Assist rate is at 16.3%, career is 8.6%.

Tatum 24.3 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists. Assist rate is now at 19.8%. His career rate is 11.2%, last year it was 14.5%.

SSS and all.

View: https://twitter.com/MikePradaNBA/status/1346106824152514561?s=20


Jaylen's progress (and clear potential for further improvement) is way bigger than anything else that has happened this year. The TPE has more workable targets when Brown and Tatum are this pluggable.

 

[Devizier]

Yeah, all I can think is that against Milwaukee, Indy and mayyybbbeee Philly the lineup could be useful. My thoughts are well-known, but I'm going to lay off it for awhile since, as you note, it won't make or break the season.

I think it's pretty clear Brad is experimenting with the lineup to see if there's a way to make it work. I'm okay with squandering an early game or two if this ends up being useful down the line. Even five minutes in the playoffs is worth more than a game or two in the regular season.

 

[TripleOT]

I am not a fan of the two big lineup. Of course, as soon as Kemba returns, it can be retired.

I don’t think DT is a four, but if he could find the range from three, that would be huge. If not, one of TT, DT, TL would be the odd man out in the playoffs, relegated to like 6-8 mpg.

One benefit of this two big starting lineup is TL is getting regular minutes with the second unit. I have a feeling that the best eventual lineup will be TL, Tatum, Brown, Smart, Kemba if Rob Williams can put it all together this season.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

In my mind, a huge problem with "experimenting" with your starting lineup is that if/when they decide it's not working they then either have to sit the guy who's started for them for the last year or two or the new vet they just paid to come to town. The coach has a recent track record of keeping suboptimal guys in the starting line-up in a rehabbing GH and a perfect bench piece in Marcus Morris. I won't be shocked when it plays out that this is a long-term experiment.

It's clear that CBS doesn't think it's his best lineup - as he hasn't used it much to close out games in crunch time (it might have happened once - can't remember for sure).

It has been though. Yesterday it was two bigs with Semi subbing in, so not strictly the Twin Mid-Sized Apartment Complex line-up, but it's still what Brad turned to close out the game.

Of course, as soon as Kemba returns, it can be retired.

Seems more likely that Marcus will head to the bench.

 

[lexrageorge]

If Stevens is unable or unwilling to make the necessary adjustments to the lineups either later this season or in the playoffs, then that's 100% on him, and it will be time to move on. It's one thing to give him a pass on the toxic Kyrie mix (which was where 95% of the problem lay), but there's no such excuse this time around.

 

[lovegtm]

If Stevens is unable or unwilling to make the necessary adjustments to the lineups either later this season or in the playoffs, then that's 100% on him, and it will be time to move on. It's one thing to give him a pass on the toxic Kyrie mix (which was where 95% of the problem lay), but there's no such excuse this time around.

I have some nitpicks with Stevens, but his playoff record is quite good in terms of willingness to experiment and try to find specific stuff.

 

[tbrown_01923]

even - gasp - Semi out there to see who can play some wing minutes

Has Semi turned into a 38% 3pt shooter? He is solid enough defensively that nearly 40% on spotup 3s isn't a bad way to spend 15-20 minutes a night.

SIgn me up for some built in "nights off" for the three primary bigs with Tako covering the blowouts. There will be games where theis sees early foul trouble which might force minutes in the middle to Grant - but that shouldn't be a regular occurence. Having our energy players without nagging injuries come the playoffs will be huge.

 

[amarshal2]

Everyone talks about how bad the two big lineup has been defensively (bad!) but what about the offense? The two big lineup has an 104 offensive rating -- which is 16th out of 27 C's lineups that have played >50 mins this year. The 2 bigs have played 74 minutes together -- meanwhile the JT-JB-MS-DT-TT lineup has played 77 minutes together (the most of any 5 man lineup)-- so basically the entire time the two big lineup has played it has had the benefit of playing with both JT/JB and it still put up putrid offensive numbers. It's getting the absolute least out of them.

I'm not smart enough to figure out how to get splits for the line-up by fast break and half court, but the lineup just looks terrible in the half court offense. There is no space -- none for anybody to get to the hoop. Neither TT or DT are anything resembling a lob threat so nobody is even paying a big price for shifting towards JT/JB on drives. DT can hang out on the perimeter but teams are right to just let him shoot. TT can't do anything but screen, rebound, or hit a 5 foot jump shot with time to find his balance. It's just not working.

If Brad wants to keep experimenting with it -- fine -- but please stop starting and ending games with it and making it part of the most used 5 man line-up on the team.

 

[lovegtm]

Everyone talks about how bad the two big lineup has been defensively (bad!) but what about the offense? The two big lineup has an 104 offensive rating -- which is 16th out of 27 C's lineups that have played >50 mins this year. The 2 bigs have played 74 minutes together -- meanwhile the JT-JB-MS-DT-TT lineup has played 77 minutes together (the most of any 5 man lineup)-- so basically the entire time the two big lineup has played it has had the benefit of playing with both JT/JB and it still put up putrid offensive numbers. It's getting the absolute least out of them.

I'm not smart enough to figure out how to get splits for the line-up by fast break and half court, but the lineup just looks terrible in the half court offense. There is no space -- none for anybody to get to the hoop. Neither TT or DT are anything resembling a lob threat so nobody is even paying a big price for shifting towards JT/JB on drives. DT can hang out on the perimeter but teams are right to just let him shoot. TT can't do anything but screen, rebound, or hit a 5 foot jump shot with time to find his balance. It's just not working.

If Brad wants to keep experimenting with it -- fine -- but please stop starting and ending games with it and making it part of the most used 5 man line-up on the team.

You could probably make a better case for pairing Theis with TL, and having TT be the first big off the bench.

 

[amarshal2]

I just checked 4 person lineups to see what that looked like and of course both JT/JB/MS + DT (99 mins) and +TT (103) are the most used lineups.

This makes for an easy comparison of how DT and TT have faired with the rest of the starters. I don't know how to exclude the 74 common minutes (DT + TT) but there's a pretty big skew in the remaining 25 mins (where only one of them is on the floor with JT/JB/MS -- SSS warning applies)
player: lineup O-rating / D-rating
DT: 98 / 116
TT: 104 / 112

So, in those 25 minutes where the "1 big starting lineup" has been on the floor, TT lineup has way outplayed the DT lineup on both ends (it's 104/118 when they're both playing). I've thought that DT just hasn't looked good at all and this certainly matches that.

 

[DJnVa]

Tonight should be interesting--Teague out, Smart questionable.

 

[amarshal2]

If you set a minimum of 50 minutes played, the Celtics best 4 man line-up by net rating has a -8 net rating (TT/MS/JB/JT). Obviously, all the others that make the minutes cut are even more negative.

If you put similar restrictions on all of last year (I did 350 mins -- so I only have a handful of lineups that make the minutes cut), the Celtics best 4 man line-up by net rating had a +13 rating (DT/KW/JT/MS). Every other lineup to make the minutes cut has a positive net rating (some only slightly).

Last year the most used lineups outplayed the opponents. This year the most used lineups are getting slaughtered. Is it the lineup or the way the players are playing? Chicken or the egg? We seem to think it's the lineup. Individually JT/JB/MS and a few others all look as good or better than last year. Without Kemba/Hayward we should expect some regression but more offensively than defensively and the defense has been bad.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

There is an argument to be made that if Stevens et al are managing this first month of games as if its the playoffs (trying to win each game by putting their best line-ups on the floor) that he probably isn't the right coach to get this group over the hump. The preseason was abbreviated - they are supposed to be trying things out now but if you guys are correct that its imperative to win all of these games, they likely need a new coach.

Edit: And frankly, if Ainge is seeing what you all are seeing and is still sticking with Stevens, he probably needs to go too. Whom should replace Ainge and Stevens? The C's should probably start by targeting GMs who selected better players later in the same drafts as Danny. I don't have a preference for Stevens replacement except it needs to be someone who works the refs.

 

[slamminsammya]

If you set a minimum of 50 minutes played, the Celtics best 4 man line-up by net rating has a -8 net rating (TT/MS/JB/JT). Obviously, all the others that make the minutes cut are even more negative.

If you put similar restrictions on all of last year (I did 350 mins -- so I only have a handful of lineups that make the minutes cut), the Celtics best 4 man line-up by net rating had a +13 rating (DT/KW/JT/MS). Every other lineup to make the minutes cut has a positive net rating (some only slightly).

Last year the most used lineups outplayed the opponents. This year the most used lineups are getting slaughtered.

It is worth pointing out that lineup ratings are inherently very noisy, and I am not sure too much can be said about them in fine detail except very broad strokes when there are plenty of possessions. Shot luck is a pretty big factor over 50 minutes (~ 100 possessions) where there will be maybe 85 ish shot attempts (15 ish turnovers, 10 ish free throw possessions, 10 offensive boards). Naively you would get around a 5% FG% standard deviation, or about 4 shots in either direction, which is a swing of +-8 points of net rating.

 

[benhogan]

There is an argument to be made that if Stevens et al are managing this first month of games as if its the playoffs (trying to win each game by putting their best line-ups on the floor) that he probably isn't the right coach to get this group over the hump. The preseason was abbreviated - they are supposed to be trying things out now but if you guys are correct that its imperative to win all of these games, they likely need a new coach.

Edit: And frankly, if Ainge is seeing what you all are seeing and is still sticking with Stevens, he probably needs to go too. Whom should replace Ainge and Stevens? The C's should probably start by targeting GMs who selected better players later in the same drafts as Danny. I don't have a preference for Stevens replacement except it needs to be someone who works the refs.

Calling for Brad (and Danny's) head right now seems extremely silly. Is that what you want? or is that what you think posters are suggesting?

 

[NomarsFool]

There will be games where theis sees early foul trouble

There will also be games on days that end in "y"

I was a huge DT fan last year, but I'm getting pretty tired of the foul machine this season.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Calling for Brad (and Danny's) head right now seems extremely silly. Is that what you want? or is that what you think posters are suggesting?

The NBA season is six games old.

Complaining about rotations and player conditioning amid a quick start/global pandemic seems extremely silly to me yet people clearly had different expectations about how the start of the season would go. If the Celtics are underperforming out of the gate, why wait to change coaches?

If you buy that the C's are just using these first few weeks of games as their de facto preseason, nothing we are seeing should be causing this much consternation. As such, you have to conclude that people did not expect the C's to roll out these different line-ups and that they are being mismanaged. And if they are, its not just on Stevens - Ainge should go too.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Having listened to Brad in a clinic I know he likes to use the longest defenders he can. (which is why the Grant draft pick surprised me) It looks to me that Brad wants to use Tatum on wings where his size gives them trouble. he lack of good, long wing defender after the Js is a problem. LAstyear with Gordo they could switch everything. Smart is getting beat off the bounce a bit, but is very good with physical guys. There are clear communication problems on D and they seem to be switching a bit less. Theis is playing a new position, and that may be a problem, but it may improve. With no training camp, I expect Brad (who may know more than one or two of us) hopes they can switch 2-4 with Brown, tatum, Smart, Theis, but it hasn't been great, but at times I have seen what he is hoping for with Theis and tatum (both 6'9)pressuring shooters and TT cleaning up the glass.

 

[BillMuellerFanClub]

Edit: And frankly, if Ainge is seeing what you all are seeing and is still sticking with Stevens, he probably needs to go too. Whom should replace Ainge and Stevens? The C's should probably start by targeting GMs who selected better players later in the same drafts as Danny. I don't have a preference for Stevens replacement except it needs to be someone who works the refs.

I'm not saying that this is your position, but the idea of that these guys need to go is totally asinine. The ownership (and Ainge) had cited Brad's vision as aligning with the organization in the praise surrounding the announcement of his extension back in August of 2020, with Ainge saying “More importantly, his character and integrity have contributed to a culture that we all highly value here. Brad is a great teammate, and a leader people want to follow.”

From a coaching stand point, it's pretty clear that this organization has prioritized culture and building the on-the-court product the "right" way over doing anything they can do win each game. In the near-term, this means finding out what you have at the cost of a few wins, or maddening play from sub-optimal lineups. Brad is accumulating data and anecdotal evidence of the teams' needs both for personnel and scheme purposes. I'm not saying Brad or Ainge should be invulnerable to criticism, but they've both proven to be in upper echelon in their roles and have the added value of a consistent message and culture. Look at the Sixers, a team that has been on the same timeline and hopeful trajectory as the Celtics; would you rather be turning over the GM (for the second, third time) and head coach and risking turmoil over what marginal upgrade you think might be out there for this organization? I wouldn't - at least not yet.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I'd much rather see Brad give one of the 3 centers a game off each time, and simply split 24 minutes between the two remaining BIGS. The 2 BIG lineup is awful - everyone seems to be able to see that, and the numbers back it up. Yes, it's early - but it doesn't seem to make any sense other than doing it to find a way to get TT some additional minutes. It's clear that CBS doesn't think it's his best lineup - as he hasn't used it much to close out games in crunch time (it might have happened once - can't remember for sure).

So lets say you want ride Marcus, Tatum, Brown hard, not great idea, but okay.

Okay so then we have 196 minutes for non forwards.
Tatum 35
Brown 35
Smart 35
Teague 25
Pritchard 20

That means you want one of the following out there for 46 minutes or pretty much the whole game, while TT, Theis, or Timelord are in a suit and tie. After six games of evidence with no preseason or training camp.

Semi
Grant
Nesmith
Green
Waters

 

[PedroKsBambino]

So lets say you want ride Marcus, Tatum, Brown hard, not great idea, but okay.

Okay so then we have 196 minutes for non forwards.
Tatum 35
Brown 35
Smart 35
Teague 25
Pritchard 20

That means you want one of the following out there for 46 minutes or pretty much the whole game, while TT, Theis, or Timelord are in a suit and tie. After six games of evidence with no preseason or training camp.

Semi
Grant
Nesmith
Green
Waters

Well said. They are one reliable guy short—-it’s a shame they didn’t take a shot at one in FA and instead held onto the end of the roster. But, that’s where they are now so gotta coax minutes from
green semi and grant until Romeo and/or Kemba gets healthy

 

[amarshal2]

The NBA season is six games old.

Complaining about rotations and player conditioning amid a quick start/global pandemic seems extremely silly to me yet people clearly had different expectations about how the start of the season would go. If the Celtics are underperforming out of the gate, why wait to change coaches?

If you buy that the C's are just using these first few weeks of games as their de facto preseason, nothing we are seeing should be causing this much consternation. As such, you have to conclude that people did not expect the C's to roll out these different line-ups and that they are being mismanaged. And if they are, its not just on Stevens - Ainge should go too.

I mean, hell, if critiquing early season rotations means they might as well fire Ainge and Stevens, maybe they should just trade Tatum and Brown while they're at it. I mean, if we're going to have zero gauge for nuance and equate all complaints with wildly disproportionate responses it seems only right.

 

[benhogan]

So lets say you want ride Marcus, Tatum, Brown hard, not great idea, but okay.

Okay so then we have 196 minutes for non forwards.
Tatum 35
Brown 35
Smart 35
Teague 25
Pritchard 20

That means you want one of the following out there for 46 minutes or pretty much the whole game, while TT, Theis, or Timelord are in a suit and tie. After six games of evidence with no preseason or training camp.

Semi
Grant
Nesmith
Green
Waters

Using your minutes that's 42 bench minutes needed from a combination of these wings:
Semi, Grant, Nesmith, Green. Two of them have played high leverage minutes in playoff games before. I think they can handle playing complementary roles in early-season games.

Then lower once Romeo starts playing.

Then lower once Kemba starts playing.

Then lower when they acquire a wing at the deadline... if necessary.

And hopefully, Brad & Co are figuring out a way to use this 2-BIG lineup vs certain matchups in small doses

 

[reggiecleveland]

Semi, Grant, Nesmith, Green. Two of them have played high leverage minutes in playoff games before.

Rather than using 3 forwards you want 42 minutes for these guys? Really? And you want Tatum, Brown, Marcus 35 minutes every night?
So you want to play Grant ahead of Timelord? That's what you are saying.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I mean, hell, if critiquing early season rotations means they might as well fire Ainge and Stevens, maybe they should just trade Tatum and Brown while they're at it. I mean, if we're going to have zero gauge for nuance and equate all complaints with wildly disproportionate responses it seems only right.

The complaints about the rotations six games into a shortened season that was preceded by a global pandemic and an unprecedented August/September playoff season seem wildly disproportionate to me as well. The C's have injuries and had no training camp to speak of. Yet they still had to integrate guys like Thomson, Teague, Prichard, Nesmith and they are asking Smart to take on a modestly different role. That said, there are some posts upthread (not going to pick on individual posters) that suggest there is serious concern that Stevens is mismanging his line-ups.

To my way of thinking this is pretty binary: either the C's are experimenting given the extenuating circumstances or they are messing things up. If you believe the former, its interesting to explore what they are doing. However some posters seem pretty upset with the results (which aren't good by any measure). That shouldn't happen if you really trust the process - and it seems like some people really do not.

 

[benhogan]

Rather than using 3 forwards you want 42 minutes for these guys? Really? And you want Tatum, Brown, Marcus 35 minutes every night?
So you want to play Grant ahead of Timelord? That's what you are saying.

Actually, you said 35mpg. I was just using your numbers. I don't understand your question, "forwards"?

I want Time Lord to play the 5 a lot. If he can make it through the season healthy, he'll definitely get more minutes. The odds TT/DT/TL (all 5s in my book) are healthy all season long are very small. DT had knee surgery this offseason, TT has something nagging his leg already, and TL gets injured when he sneezes.

Those 4 players (Semi, Grant, Javonte, Nesmith) are part of the deep bench and will be getting forced into PT due to injuries. Next man up.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

The complaints about the rotations six games into a shortened season that was preceded by a global pandemic and an unprecedented August/September playoff season seem wildly disproportionate to me as well. The C's have injuries and had no training camp to speak of. Yet they still had to integrate guys like Thomson, Teague, Prichard, Nesmith and they are asking Smart to take on a modestly different role. That said, there are some posts upthread (not going to pick on individual posters) that suggest there is serious concern that Stevens is mismanging his line-ups.

To my way of thinking this is pretty binary: either the C's are experimenting given the extenuating circumstances or they are messing things up. If you believe the former, its interesting to explore what they are doing. However some posters seem pretty upset with the results (which aren't good by any measure). That shouldn't happen if you really trust the process - and it seems like some people really do not.

I'm sorry but did you post this literally after the first game of the year or no?

The Thompson/Theis/Tatum/Brown/Smart line-up was the worst five man unit in terms of defense last night (I filtered using in excess of three minutes). The good news is that the Celtics are good at recognizing this stuff quickly so if that line-up is effective in whatever it is they expect from them, they will go with it or they will mitigate any mismatches.

Can you explain the difference between posting this and what others are posting? Thanks.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I'm sorry but did you post this literally after the first game of the year or no?



Can you explain the difference between posting this and what others are posting? Thanks.

Yes. Your edit. Below is the full quote. Bolding is mine.

As a side note, I can support my position about Thompson's defense with stats if needed. Also, I was responding to people already citing that particular rotation. I understand that nobody is perfect but I really am trying not to look at the numbers too much yet as I don't think there is any value to them.

FWIW, its one game and I would take nothing from the data yet but I am a bit skeptical of this idea that Thompson is good defensively (what I look at tells me he is ~average in general and like most of his peers, a weak point in mismatches). The Thompson/Theis/Tatum/Brown/Smart line-up was the worst five man unit in terms of defense last night (I filtered using in excess of three minutes). The good news is that the Celtics are good at recognizing this stuff quickly so if that line-up is effective in whatever it is they expect from them, they will go with it or they will mitigate any mismatches.

Edit: I am not cool with you taking my posts out of context - I understand that I often fail to communicate clearly so please ask about that. But if we are going to just start playing gotcha, we are going to need more moderation of this forum. Its not good faith messageboarding.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Actually, you said 35mpg. I was just using your numbers. I don't understand your question, "forwards"?

I want Time Lord to play the 5 a lot. If he can make it through the season healthy, he'll definitely get more minutes. The odds TT/DT/TL (all 5s in my book) are healthy all season long are very small. DT had knee surgery this offseason, TT has something nagging his leg already, and TL gets injured when he sneezes.

Those 4 players (Semi, Grant, Javonte, Nesmith) are part of the deep bench and will be getting forced into PT due to injuries. Next man up.

I responded to a post that said to play TL, TT, DT 48 minutes between them, not dressing one each night. Unless I am mistaken you were agreeing with that poster to not play "2 bigs".

 

[benhogan]

I responded to a post that said to play TL, TT, DT 48 minutes between them, not dressing one each night. Unless I am mistaken you were agreeing with that poster to not play "2 bigs".

Yea. I don't like TL, TT, DT playing as forwards or wings. or the 2BIGS excessive minutes' experiment

The ironic part is I was probably the biggest Baynes/Horford stan

 

[NomarsFool]

So lets say you want ride Marcus, Tatum, Brown hard, not great idea, but okay.

Okay so then we have 196 minutes for non forwards.
Tatum 35
Brown 35
Smart 35
Teague 25
Pritchard 20

That means you want one of the following out there for 46 minutes or pretty much the whole game, while TT, Theis, or Timelord are in a suit and tie. After six games of evidence with no preseason or training camp.

Semi
Grant
Nesmith
Green
Waters

I didn't say "ride them hard", and Brown and Tatum both averaged ~34 minutes last season. I think that seems about right. Smart was less (32 minutes), but that was mostly driven by him coming off the bench.

I'd be perfectly fine for the regular season seeing with Semi, Grant, Nesmith, and Romeo can do (with the occasional Waters at the point). It's the regular season. We need to see what those guys can do, and hopefully one or two of them can blossom into a solid rotational player for the playoffs. They aren't going to get better sitting on the bench. I do also assume that Kemba will come back at some point and he'll take minutes away as there will likely be a lot of 2 of Kemba/PP/Teague lineups on the floor.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Yea. I don't like TL, TT, DT playing as forwards or wings.

The ironic part is I was probably the biggest Baynes/Horford stan

Then as i said you have to play the bottom of the bench a lot.

Horford was worth a lot of money because he was very good on switches and could make 3s. Does Theis have a chance to become that? Maybe.

 

[benhogan]

Then as i said you have to play the bottom of the bench a lot.

Horford was worth a lot of money because he was very good on switches and could make 3s. Does Theis have a chance to become that? Maybe.

Yea that's probably the disconnect. I'm fine with Semi, Javont, Grant, Nesmith as bench wings this early in the season. With Romeo also joining the fray when healthy.

I'm hoping 1of 3 happens:
Grant progresses from last season, or Nesmith becomes a 40% shooter or
Semi continues his 3pt shooting jump last season. If none of that happens acquire an upgrade at the trade deadline. BUT I want to see them get small minutes to see if they can fill a rotational role or be used for trade bait (combined with the TPE) to add a better rotational player.

I don't see Theis being a similar player to Horford at all. Al was a good initiator, distributor and shooter at the top. AND I really like Daniel as a 5. DT is great at snake screens and plays with high energy in short minutes (18-20mpg).

 

[reggiecleveland]

Yea that's probably the disconnect. I'm fine with Semi, Javont, Grant, Nesmith as bench wings this early in the season. With Romeo also joining the fray when healthy.

I'm hoping 1of 3 happens:
Grant progresses from last season, or Nesmith becomes a 40% shooter or
Semi continues his 3pt shooting jump last season. If none of that happens acquire an upgrade at the trade deadline. BUT I want to see them get small minutes to see if they can fill a rotational role or be used for trade bait (combined with the TPE) to add a better rotational player.

I don't see Theis being a similar player to Horford at all. Al was a good initiator, distributor and shooter at the top. AND I really like Daniel as a 5. DT is great at snake screens and plays with high energy in short minutes (18-20mpg).

Theis isn't going to be an all star, but can he switch screens and shoot well enough people don't leave him? Maybe. 4 years ago I was at a Pistons game and Baynes shot 17 footers for an hour. That was part of the long road to becoming a 3pt shooter. Theis is pretty small to be pure 5, but he is tough and smart and Brad likes him. Thompson does his job, and draws attention because he is an elite Orebounder. If Theis can play 4 that really gives Brad options where Tatum and Brown are playing against smaller guys at both ends

 

[amarshal2]

Yea that's probably the disconnect. I'm fine with Semi, Javont, Grant, Nesmith as bench wings this early in the season. With Romeo also joining the fray when healthy.

I'm hoping 1of 3 happens:
Grant progresses from last season, or Nesmith becomes a 40% shooter or
Semi continues his 3pt shooting jump last season. If none of that happens acquire an upgrade at the trade deadline. BUT I want to see them get small minutes to see if they can fill a rotational role or be used for trade bait (combined with the TPE) to add a better rotational player.

I don't see Theis being a similar player to Horford at all. Al was a good initiator, distributor and shooter at the top. AND I really like Daniel as a 5. DT is great at snake screens and plays with high energy in short minutes (18-20mpg).

I think this is right. I'd much rather see what happens with Grant/Semi/Nesmith/Romeo (eventually) getting those extra minutes than playing a lot of the two big lineups as the "starters"/closers. Plus, once Kemba comes back (sooner than Romeo), more of Smarts minutes will fall into the "wing" bucket than "small" bucket. You can probably be just fine with him on the court with two of the ball handlers as a 3 and D wing.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Yes. Your edit. Below is the full quote. Bolding is mine.

As a side note, I can support my position about Thompson's defense with stats if needed. Also, I was responding to people already citing that particular rotation. I understand that nobody is perfect but I really am trying not to look at the numbers too much yet as I don't think there is any value to them.



Edit: I am not cool with you taking my posts out of context - I understand that I often fail to communicate clearly so please ask about that. But if we are going to just start playing gotcha, we are going to need more moderation of this forum. Its not good faith messageboarding.

The quote I pulled was about a DT and TT lineup, which is absolutely what's being discussed here. I remain curious why it's "silly" to look at lineup data after six games, but you did it after one. Does everyone need to add a small sample size caveat to their posts to meet a standard for what is and isn't a legit discussion?

As for your edit, at least one or two posters were confused by the sarcasm in your posts and actually took time out of their day to respond as if you actually thought Brad and Danny should be fired. Does that really meet a "good faith" standard? Because to me, it's borderline trolling.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

The quote I pulled was about a DT and TT lineup, which is absolutely what's being discussed here. I remain curious why it's "silly" to look at lineup data after six games, but you did it after one. Does everyone need to add a small sample size caveat to their posts to meet a standard for what is and isn't a legit discussion?

As for your edit, at least one or two posters were confused by the sarcasm in your posts and actually took time out of their day to respond as if you actually thought Brad and Danny should be fired. Does that really meet a "good faith" standard? Because to me, it's borderline trolling.

For the record, I was not the first poster who brought up the idea that if Stevens cannot adjust his current rotations, he should move on. I was simply adding to the sentiment that you either have faith in him or you do not. If you do, what is the real concern? You either believe that Stevens knows what he is doing at this point or you do not. Its pretty simple.

That said, I consider pulling quotes and editing them far more egregious than spelling out the logical conclusion of an argument. YRMV.

Back to the topic at hand, I am actually of the mind that with Teague banged up, Pritchard and Nesmith should get as much run as possible for the next few games - regardless of results. IMO, losing a few more games due to bad rotations and rookie mistakes is a small price to pay for getting the young guys experience.

 

[GreenMonster49]

4 years ago I was at a Pistons game and Baynes shot 17 footers for an hour. That was part of the long road to becoming a 3pt shooter.

I went to several Celtics games at the Garden three seasons ago. During halftime of each game, Baynes was on the court a few minutes before the rest of the team, and took 17-20 foot jumpers from each elbow during that time. That's a (small) part of that long road.

 

[benhogan]

Theis isn't going to be an all star, but can he switch screens and shoot well enough people don't leave him? Maybe. 4 years ago I was at a Pistons game and Baynes shot 17 footers for an hour. That was part of the long road to becoming a 3pt shooter. Theis is pretty small to be pure 5, but he is tough and smart and Brad likes him. Thompson does his job, and draws attention because he is an elite Orebounder. If Theis can play 4 that really gives Brad options where Tatum and Brown are playing against smaller guys at both ends

I was hoping we would get a Baynes encore this season after Phoenix passed, but was assured by most that TT was better.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Theis isn't going to be an all star, but can he switch screens and shoot well enough people don't leave him? Maybe. 4 years ago I was at a Pistons game and Baynes shot 17 footers for an hour. That was part of the long road to becoming a 3pt shooter. Theis is pretty small to be pure 5, but he is tough and smart and Brad likes him. Thompson does his job, and draws attention because he is an elite Orebounder. If Theis can play 4 that really gives Brad options where Tatum and Brown are playing against smaller guys at both ends

Yup. I don't love the two big lineup but as you've noted, it's both an experiment and the reality of their roster.

I do think Theis becoming a 4 who plays some 5 would be a great development for the bench once they are fully healthy. I don't know whether it will work or not, he doesn't seem quick to me and the handsyness seems to create foul issues (fair or not) which will be exacerbated at the 4. But I can't disagree with any of your assessment of why it could work and especially given there are few options now it's worth trying for a bit

 

[mcpickl]

I honestly don't think the two big lineup that doesn't work isn't anything more than..

They have three centers that are good enough to play.
They don't have enough good wings to play.
They're playing a two center lineup to make sure RWill gets minutes, he wouldn't get off the bench without playing Theis/TT together.

Should also help pump up RWill trade value to get him consistent minutes instead of the scraps he'd get otherwise.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

My takes from tonight's game:

Semi needs to get more minutes at the expense of Theis and TT.
TL needs to get more minutes at the expense of Theis and TT.
Waters shouldn't ever see meaningful minutes.

And PP is basically a starter.

 

[slamminsammya]

I dont know if anyone has mentioned this yet but they look much better when they don't have two bigs on the floor at the same time ;p

Whoever mentioned the Kemba off the bench possibility has just added me as a convert after tonight. Have him play with the second unit guys for some scoring, and let him finish the games.

 

[128]

Nesmith looked shaky for much of his time out there tonite, but he'll be better for the experience he gained, IMO. I hope Brad keeps giving him small bites.

 

[benhogan]

My takes from tonight's game:

Semi needs to get more minutes at the expense of Theis and TT.
TL needs to get more minutes at the expense of Theis and TT.
Waters shouldn't ever see meaningful minutes.

And PP is basically a starter.

agreed... and would add:

The Theis/TT starting combo experiment will expire within the week.

PP/TL will be part of the closing lineup with JayCrew/Smart eventually

the reports of Granite's death were grossly exaggerated

 

[Cellar-Door]

Looking at this team, I wouldn't be surprised if Theis is getting less than 10 MPG by the playoffs, maybe less than 5 depending on matchup.

He can only play C, and Thompson and Williams both do key things better. Unless Theis goes back to his fluke 39% from 3 form of 2 years ago there isn't much of a role for him.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

A massive 60 point effort from the bench tonight against Toronto. Remember that playoff series a few months back when we were lamenting how thin our bench was in comparison?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Grant Williams: "Sometimes I just get in my head and don't focus on what I have to do. Tonight, I was able to play freely."

So maybe it wasn't a physical thing but that he was thinking too much. His positioning certainly looked better all night long.

If the 2-Big lineup can't guard the 3P line, Brad isn't going to play it, which I'm sure makes everyone here - and Scal - very happy. Hopefully one or both of Semi / GWill will hit or continue to hit 38+% of 3ps.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1346297997244686340