Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

Fishy1

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The fact that no one can find Robert Williams for easy lobs other than Smart and occasionally Tatum is infuriating. Last year the Celtics were able to find him on a pick and roll 27% of the time. This year it's only 18%.

The bottom line is that no one on the floor right now can competently run a pick and roll, which is the main diet for their offense.

The Celtics best pick and roll player by PPP is Jaylen Brown, at 1.02 PPP. He's in good company, that's 84th percentile. The rest of the Celtics are under 1 PPP, besides Carsen Edwards, who has a comically high PPP in very few possessions.

Uninspiringly, Jaylen uses the pick and roll the least of the starters, only 15% of the time, while Kemba, who is in the 66TH percentile and scores .92 PPP on the pick and roll, uses it 47% of the time. He's worse than Lonzo Ball, Marcus Smart, Andrew Wiggins, and Tim Hardaway Jr., and tied with Collin Sexton. Kemba is in the 66th percentile in pick and rolls. He uses 9 of them a game, 2 more than Tatum and three more than Jaylen and Marcus Smart combined. Even Fournier beats him out, scoring .95 over in Orlando.

The fall-off after .92 is pretty steep. There's a lot of bad guards on the list below .92. There's just no way to justify Kemba running the offense. He should be taking catch-and-shoot shots way more often, but of course there's no one else who has the energy to throw themselves at the defense 9 times a game on this team and do so with any efficiency. I don't blame Kemba, either. As recently as 2017-2018, he was producing 1.03, just about the same as Chris Paul, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant. 2018-2019 was good too. Last year was even better. And this year he fell off a fucking cliff.

It's no wonder the offense is so mediocre. Jaylen gets knocked for his handle and his vision, which are still under development, but the man is the best scorer they had, and they miss him very badly right now.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Amen. Wish we had a CP3 kind of guy.
Windhorst was on the DA show this morning - take it for what it's worth - but he said that LBJ had to teach AD about how to win and that a lot of it was when things aren't going well, AD had to be tougher.

Last year Brad said that GH was a "stabilizing influence" on BOS - I guess he meant that when the going got tough, GH would settle down BOS and get them to run offense and not just jack up shots early in the clock.

At some point, the Cs are going to have to learn that no one is good enough to win in the NBA playing 1 on 3, which is what the Cs offense often ends up doing. Hopefully it's next year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The fact that no one can find Robert Williams for easy lobs other than Smart and occasionally Tatum is infuriating. Last year the Celtics were able to find him on a pick and roll 27% of the time. This year it's only 18%.

The bottom line is that no one on the floor right now can competently run a pick and roll, which is the main diet for their offense.
I don’t trust those raw percentages for a couple of reasons.

1. TL had more garbage time minutes last year.
2. He is getting more starters minutes this year and starting defenses typically execute better defensively.
3. Teams now have a line on him and actively attempt to defend him at the rim this year.
 

Eddie Jurak

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t's no wonder the offense is so mediocre. Jaylen gets knocked for his handle and his vision, which are still under development, but the man is the best scorer they had, and they miss him very badly right now.
I mean, most of this post was good, but <cough>JaysonTatum<cough>.
I don’t trust those raw percentages for a couple of reasons.

1. TL had more garbage time minutes last year.
2. He is getting more starters minutes this year and starting defenses typically execute better defensively.
3. Teams now have a line on him and actively attempt to defend him at the rim this year.
Some of his stats as starter vs reserve are quite different.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/splits/2021

308 minutes as a starter vs 677 as a reserve

As a reserve, his shooting and defensive rebounding stats are about the same as when he starts. But, as a reserve, he gets more (per minute) offensive rebounds, steals, blocks, and turnovers. As a starter, he gets more assists (4.7 per 36 vs 2.9 per 36).
 

radsoxfan

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So basically a top 5 player all time?
If the Celtics just had a healthy Magic Johnson they might have a better shot.

I didn’t see the “injury” that led to the bone bruise. If it wasn’t from a specific injury, the bone bruise is probably just the result of the stress of playing on his arthritic knee.

Running around on a knee without enough cartilage for too long = bone bruise.
 

tbb345

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The fact that no one can find Robert Williams for easy lobs other than Smart and occasionally Tatum is infuriating. Last year the Celtics were able to find him on a pick and roll 27% of the time. This year it's only 18%.

The bottom line is that no one on the floor right now can competently run a pick and roll, which is the main diet for their offense.

The Celtics best pick and roll player by PPP is Jaylen Brown, at 1.02 PPP. He's in good company, that's 84th percentile. The rest of the Celtics are under 1 PPP, besides Carsen Edwards, who has a comically high PPP in very few possessions.

Uninspiringly, Jaylen uses the pick and roll the least of the starters, only 15% of the time, while Kemba, who is in the 66TH percentile and scores .92 PPP on the pick and roll, uses it 47% of the time. He's worse than Lonzo Ball, Marcus Smart, Andrew Wiggins, and Tim Hardaway Jr., and tied with Collin Sexton. Kemba is in the 66th percentile in pick and rolls. He uses 9 of them a game, 2 more than Tatum and three more than Jaylen and Marcus Smart combined. Even Fournier beats him out, scoring .95 over in Orlando.

The fall-off after .92 is pretty steep. There's a lot of bad guards on the list below .92. There's just no way to justify Kemba running the offense. He should be taking catch-and-shoot shots way more often, but of course there's no one else who has the energy to throw themselves at the defense 9 times a game on this team and do so with any efficiency. I don't blame Kemba, either. As recently as 2017-2018, he was producing 1.03, just about the same as Chris Paul, Lebron James, and Kevin Durant. 2018-2019 was good too. Last year was even better. And this year he fell off a fucking cliff.

It's no wonder the offense is so mediocre. Jaylen gets knocked for his handle and his vision, which are still under development, but the man is the best scorer they had, and they miss him very badly right now.
I read this post and it pretty much confirms what I, and I think almost everyone on this board, thinks.
Kemba is just not good enough for what they are paying him. The worst part is that it’s such an albatross it pretty much ruins any chance at improving the roster of the team.
I literally have no idea what Danny can do this offseason other than pray that Kemba gets better
 

benhogan

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Hollinger's wrap on the Celtic's season compared to last season:

In Boston’s case, the season-ending wrist injury to Jaylen Brown put the icing on the cake, but the Celtics’ tombstone was already at the engravers. Even before he went out, Boston was only 34-31.

At first glance, it’s a puzzler how the Celtics took such a large step backward. Yes, they lost Gordon Hayward to free agency, and that clearly hurt. But Hayward was a limited contributor in the Celtics’ playoff run a year ago — he only played five of the Celtics’ 17 playoff games and didn’t play them particularly well.

However, his departure was the third time in just two years that the Celtics lost a free agent to a max or near-max offer from another team. (Kyrie Irving and Al Horford left the previous summer.) It’s hard to imagine a team that could manage departures of that stature without some standings impact. To get one of those max slots back in Kemba Walker, it still cost them Terry Rozier.

Minus those players, another key ingredient comes into sharper focus: Boston was incredibly healthy for nearly all of 2019-20, and with Hayward in reserve to fill in for any missing starter, they always had five good players in the starting lineup. (That’s especially true since starting center Daniel Theis only missed one game.) Boston’s second-line players were a glaring weakness, and it hurt them in the conference finals, but their exposure was limited by the health of the Celtics’ core players. “The help” only had to start 25 games all year, and the overall game time Brad Stevens had to kill a power play with Wanamakers and Ojeleyes on the floor was relatively limited.

That stands in sharp contrast to 2020-21. With Hayward gone, Walker and Marcus Smart missing time, Theis traded at midseason in a financial move and newly acquired Evan Fournier only playing 16 games, the riffraff on the bench had to step up. Robert Williams was up to the challenge, but the others were again found wanting. This time, however, the B-list Celtics (not including Time Lord Williams) started an amazing 90 games; the average Celtics game had 1.25 starts from the Tristan Thompson-Semi Ojeleye-Jeff Teague-et al pu pu platter.

In this instance, the Thompson signing looms particularly large. The Celtics already had two decent centers in Theis and Williams but used their full midlevel exception to overpay Thompson in 2020 free agency anyway. The opportunity cost of that move was that it prevented them from replacing Hayward with a Justin Holiday-type who could fill in the perimeter slots. The trade for Fournier finally took care of that weakness, but at the cost of Theis — an ironic salary casualty resulting from the money they were paying the inferior Thompson. Thompson, who was pretty clearly their third-best center, nonetheless ended up starting 43 times and playing 1,287 minutes.

The other thing that happened, or rather didn’t happen, was that Boston’s recent non-Williams draft picks haven’t developed. This is hardly a shocking outcome given where the Celtics selected — even late lottery picks have a much higher fail rate than the public generally recognizes. But the result was that a seeming bounty of draft picks headed Boston’s way, including lightly protected picks from Memphis and Sacramento, turned into Ojeleye, Romeo Langford, Matisse Thybulle, Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards, Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard and the long-gone Guerschon Yabusele and R.J. Hunter.

None of those players gave the Celtics much, although the play of Nesmith and Pritchard as rookies offers considerable hope for future returns. Additionally, the kids soaked up so many roster spots that it was tough for the Celtics to fill in with veterans. (Remember, too, that Boston got enough from Rozier, the 16th pick in 2015, to parlay him into Walker, and that Time Lord was the 27th selection in 2018. Again, hitting outside the top few picks is much less probable than people commonly assume.)

At the top end of the roster, Walker’s knee problems have made him a less explosive version of the All-Star Boston signed as a free agent in 2019. Again, this wasn’t fatal on its own, but it made it that much harder for the stars to paper over the deficiencies of the supporting cast. More insidiously, it’s turned Walker’s max contract into a negative asset for trade purposes.


https://theathletic.com/2619988/2021/05/28/heat-celtics-went-from-conference-finals-to-quick-playoff-exits-what-went-wrong-and-how-can-it-be-fixed/
 

Cellar-Door

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I'd put him at about half right. He does the normal Hollinger move of grading signings based on how they turned out ( TL was not a decent C, he'd barely played and Theis had just gotten obliterated in the playoffs by multiple opponents) and suggesting signings that couldn't happen (Holiday wasn't coming here to be the 8th man and the other FA wings available were THIN) but generally yes depth and health were issues.
 

mcpickl

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I'd put him at about half right. He does the normal Hollinger move of grading signings based on how they turned out ( TL was not a decent C, he'd barely played and Theis had just gotten obliterated in the playoffs by multiple opponents) and suggesting signings that couldn't happen (Holiday wasn't coming here to be the 8th man and the other FA wings available were THIN) but generally yes depth and health were issues.
Holiday wouldn't have been an 8th man here, c'mon.

He'd have been the obvious first guy off the bench, and not even really have any competition for that spot knowing Langford was out. Probably would've expected some starting opportunity too knowing Kemba was going to miss some time. If role was something he prioritized, Boston would have surely been a clearer spot for minutes than Indiana was.

I don't know if Holiday would've taken more money to come here and leave a situation in Indiana that he knows, and where his brother plays, but to claim he'd have been that far down the pecking order is silly in my opinion.

Hollinger definitely isn't grading the Thompson signing on how it turned out either. He hated it when it happened.
 

Fishy1

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I mean, most of this post was good, but <cough>JaysonTatum<cough>.
Totally fair! I was really thinking of Jaylen's efficiency, which is pretty remarkable given the volume of shots he takes.

HomeRunBaker said:
I don’t trust those raw percentages for a couple of reasons.

1. TL had more garbage time minutes last year.
2. He is getting more starters minutes this year and starting defenses typically execute better defensively.
3. Teams now have a line on him and actively attempt to defend him at the rim this year.
Well, I certainly won't argue that it's possible the numbers are wrong... but the book was out on Daniel Theis too, and he still managed to see the ball in the pick and roll 33% of his playsthis year. Maybe there's something stranger going on.

I went back and watched some tape to try to sus this out. Seems to be the biggest and most obvious reasons is that the the ball is not being passed to him in the pick and roll that often! When he was coming off the bench this year, he was stuck with PP and Jaylen a lot, and the former is not much use in the pick and roll yet but still managed to find him, and the latter just doesn't use it that often. You can see from his early season highlights that most of his pick and roll dunks were from those two.

Since he's been starting, Kemba is usually using his screens to jack up a 3. The highlights seem to show a lot of lobs from Jaylen and Tatum and Smart and that most of what Kemba uses Rob's screens for is his pull-up three pointers, which is just... not a good shot anymore.

Go back and watch the highlights. I mean, really: try and find Kemba throwing a lob to Rob on the pick and roll. It just doesn't happen very often. Meanwhile there's tons of highlights of Robert putting back some trash 3 point attempt that Kemba blew. I think Kemba just doesn't have the legs anymore to hang in the air long enough to throw a lob.

Anyway, the team is not good in the pick and roll. I imagine most of that has to do with Tristan Thompson's miserable .91 PPP as a roll man.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Holiday wouldn't have been an 8th man here, c'mon.

He'd have been the obvious first guy off the bench, and not even really have any competition for that spot knowing Langford was out. Probably would've expected some starting opportunity too knowing Kemba was going to miss some time. If role was something he prioritized, Boston would have surely been a clearer spot for minutes than Indiana was.

I don't know if Holiday would've taken more money to come here and leave a situation in Indiana that he knows, and where his brother plays, but to claim he'd have been that far down the pecking order is silly in my opinion.

Hollinger definitely isn't grading the Thompson signing on how it turned out either. He hated it when it happened.
Holiday agreed before Hayward announced his decision, so to him it was less money and 8th man likely (top 6 plus 2nd big).
The whole TT instead of a wing thing has always been intellectually dishonest, because it depends on the idea that guys would have held off signing elsewhere, or turned down real contenders for BOS. We know that isn't true. BOS couldn't even get their first choice bigs. TT got the MLE because they had an MLE to spend and the players who made more sense than him all were going elsewhere.
 

lovegtm

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Holiday agreed before Hayward announced his decision, so to him it was less money and 8th man likely (top 6 plus 2nd big).
The whole TT instead of a wing thing has always been intellectually dishonest, because it depends on the idea that guys would have held off signing elsewhere, or turned down real contenders for BOS. We know that isn't true. BOS couldn't even get their first choice bigs. TT got the MLE because they had an MLE to spend and the players who made more sense than him all were going elsewhere.
Not to mention that, as we saw tonight, the TT signing is like number 95 on the list of problems with the Celtics this year, and might even have been a positive.

On a team with TL, I'd rather have Fournier and TT than Theis and Justin Holiday. And that's before we get into Theis' UFA status.

Hollinger has never struck me as a particularly bright guy, in that he gets very attached to certain opinions and systems, and doesn't seem to have the mental horsepower to subsequently shift them.
 

128

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Is DAJ hurt for Brooklyn, or does Nash simply consider him unplayable?
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'm fully vaccinated now. I still mask up in grocery stores, because it isn't bothersome and can't do any harm. I have a daughter too young to be vacinated so we eat outside at restaurants still. I think I would go to a movie theater now, but I probably would not bring my daughter to one until cases fall a lot more.

It will be interesting to see what happens with full capacity Celtics and Bruins games as faf as contact tracing goes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not to mention that, as we saw tonight, the TT signing is like number 95 on the list of problems with the Celtics this year, and might even have been a positive.

On a team with TL, I'd rather have Fournier and TT than Theis and Justin Holiday. And that's before we get into Theis' UFA status.

Hollinger has never struck me as a particularly bright guy, in that he gets very attached to certain opinions and systems, and doesn't seem to have the mental horsepower to subsequently shift them.
Theis had come off an awful stretch heading into the offseason and even with TL’s minutes being held back he still wasn’t able to be available physically........so I suppose Hollinger wanted to see another 1200 minutes of Grant a Williams at the 5. I’ve been critical of some of Ainge’s roster moves but the one he got right was filling an enormous hole in the middle with a reliable veteran body for the MLE.
 

Jimbodandy

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Theis had come off an awful stretch heading into the offseason and even with TL’s minutes being held back he still wasn’t able to be available physically........so I suppose Hollinger wanted to see another 1200 minutes of Grant a Williams at the 5. I’ve been critical of some of Ainge’s roster moves but the one he got right was filling an enormous hole in the middle with a reliable veteran body for the MLE.
Absolutely. It was always the right signing.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Theis had come off an awful stretch heading into the offseason and even with TL’s minutes being held back he still wasn’t able to be available physically........so I suppose Hollinger wanted to see another 1200 minutes of Grant a Williams at the 5. I’ve been critical of some of Ainge’s roster moves but the one he got right was filling an enormous hole in the middle with a reliable veteran body for the MLE.
I agree, and I think the tendency for some here and the Nate Duncan-esque "everyone can play like the Dray Green at C Warriors" mindset is really unrealistic. Sure, if you have just the right roster you can really not have a legit 5. But most good defensive teams do have a legit 5 and that is the right planning assumption, especially given Embiid (and to a lesser degree Bam) hanging around.

TT hasn't worked out---though last night's version which we didnt' see once this year previously is huge---but the idea was the right one.
 

lovegtm

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I agree, and I think the tendency for some here and the Nate Duncan-esque "everyone can play like the Dray Green at C Warriors" mindset is really unrealistic. Sure, if you have just the right roster you can really not have a legit 5. But most good defensive teams do have a legit 5 and that is the right planning assumption, especially given Embiid (and to a lesser degree Bam) hanging around.

TT hasn't worked out---though last night's version which we didnt' see once this year previously is huge---but the idea was the right one.
TT has been pretty good a lot of the year post-hammy issues (and when he had covid). This was one of Ainge's good signings.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I don't think he's been terrible since coming back, but I'm less optimistic than you are about him, in large part because I think his defense has been really disappointing relative to what I thought he'd bring. His offense has been ok and especially offensive rebounding has been good post-injury, but he's pretty limited offensively regardless.

Like I said, I don't think it was a bad signing but I also think it's hard to say it's a big success given what they paid him and the production. Scheme-wise he can't really do what Brad likes at either end---defensively some of that is he fills a gap they had last year, but it still limits his impact. He can't space or pass high-post as Brad likes his 5s to do on offense and that hurts spacing and flow when he's in.
 

mcpickl

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Holiday agreed before Hayward announced his decision, so to him it was less money and 8th man likely (top 6 plus 2nd big).
Hayward opted out on the 19th, first news of Holiday agreement was the 20th. So, it was 6th man likely. And it wasn't less money, it was more in Hollingers scenario. To me at least, he was suggesting using the MLE on Holiday(or someone like him since he said Holiday-type, not necessarily Holiday) instead of TT. So it would've been more money, and would've eliminated any chance of Hayward coming back to push him down the rotation since it would hard cap them.

The whole TT instead of a wing thing has always been intellectually dishonest, because it depends on the idea that guys would have held off signing elsewhere, or turned down real contenders for BOS. We know that isn't true. BOS couldn't even get their first choice bigs. TT got the MLE because they had an MLE to spend and the players who made more sense than him all were going elsewhere.
It's in no way intellectually dishonest. If you offer guys more money, they will gladly wait.
 

Cellar-Door

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Hayward opted out on the 19th, first news of Holiday agreement was the 20th. So, it was 6th man likely. And it wasn't less money, it was more in Hollingers scenario. To me at least, he was suggesting using the MLE on Holiday(or someone like him since he said Holiday-type, not necessarily Holiday) instead of TT. So it would've been more money, and would've eliminated any chance of Hayward coming back to push him down the rotation since it would hard cap them.



It's in no way intellectually dishonest. If you offer guys more money, they will gladly wait.
Hayward opted out on the 19th sure... which everyone knew he would whether he was coming back to BOS, negotiating a S&T to somewhere like IND or signing elsewhere.

He didn't decide where he was signing until the 21st, after Holiday had signed.

So you're asking that Holiday wait to sign in case you strike out on Hayward, and don't trade him for any wings, but if either thing happens Holliday is SOL.

It's 100% intellectually dishonest to suggest there was any real possibility of signing Holliday, or that they chose TT over him.

That's not how anything works. At the point when Holiday had an offer on the table, the Celtics were not in a position to make a better one.
Beyond any question about whether role and playing with his brother were factors, the Celtics simply could not offer him any certainty of a better deal.

They chose TT over the guys who were left once they had the full MLE to spend (and other guys like Milsap and Ibaka turned them down), if people want to point to someone who signed after that point.... sure, but Hollinger is using Holliday in part because the options who were on the table at wing when the Celtics signed TT were basically trash.
 

mcpickl

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Hayward opted out on the 19th sure... which everyone knew he would whether he was coming back to BOS, negotiating a S&T to somewhere like IND or signing elsewhere.

He didn't decide where he was signing until the 21st, after Holiday had signed.

So you're asking that Holiday wait to sign in case you strike out on Hayward, and don't trade him for any wings, but if either thing happens Holliday is SOL.
No. I'm saying to Holiday, again if he was the guy we're talking Holiday-type, we will offer you 2/18 if we miss out on Hayward(psst, we pretty much know we're missing out on Hayward. He told us he wants a bigger role than we can offer). Would you like that more than 3/18? No? Cool, I'll move on to the next wing on my list.

It's 100% intellectually dishonest to suggest there was any real possibility of signing Holliday, or that they chose TT over him.
No, it's fucking not.

Quit saying it.

And again, you keep locking on to it being Holiday, and only Holiday, when Hollinger said Holliday-type.
 

Cellar-Door

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No. I'm saying to Holiday, again if he was the guy we're talking Holiday-type, we will offer you 2/18 if we miss out on Hayward(psst, we pretty much know we're missing out on Hayward. He told us he wants a bigger role than we can offer). Would you like that more than 3/18? No? Cool, I'll move on to the next wing on my list.



No, it's fucking not.

Quit saying it.

And again, you keep locking on to it being Holiday, and only Holiday, when Hollinger said Holliday-type.
Except you're rewriting history... they didn't know they were losing Hayward, and they didn't know that they wouldn't get anyone back for him. Also... who knows if they DID have those conversations and players decided to take cash in hand over hypothetical contracts? The only things we know for sure are what players WERE available after they had the MLE in hand, and that several of them said no.

Holinger saying "Holiday-type" is part of what makes it dishonest, because who is the "Holiday type"? throwing out a player that probably wasn't available, then saying... "type" is dumb, because you're doing it because you can't actually identify a real player who was actually available. It's like when pollsters say... do you want this well defined thing that exists of this hypothetical ill-defined thing that can be whatever your ideal version is. It obviously polls well, but then when you define it in a real way it doesn't. Same here...

If Hollinger wants to argue the Celtics should have signed a player who we actually have some indication they had a real chance to sign that's fine, but arguing that they made a bad signing because they didn't sign a player that there is no indication they every had an opportunity to sign is ridiculous, and he picked that guy because he had a good year, while the players actually available when they signed TT did not. (as an aside the Celtics probably had Ibaka or Favors #1 on their list, and both would have helped this team more than Justin Holiday given what we knew at the time.)
 

mcpickl

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Except you're rewriting history... they didn't know they were losing Hayward, and they didn't know that they wouldn't get anyone back for him. Also... who knows if they DID have those conversations and players decided to take cash in hand over hypothetical contracts? The only things we know for sure are what players WERE available after they had the MLE in hand, and that several of them said no.

Holinger saying "Holiday-type" is part of what makes it dishonest, because who is the "Holiday type"? throwing out a player that probably wasn't available, then saying... "type" is dumb, because you're doing it because you can't actually identify a real player who was actually available. It's like when pollsters say... do you want this well defined thing that exists of this hypothetical ill-defined thing that can be whatever your ideal version is. It obviously polls well, but then when you define it in a real way it doesn't. Same here...

If Hollinger wants to argue the Celtics should have signed a player who we actually have some indication they had a real chance to sign that's fine, but arguing that they made a bad signing because they didn't sign a player that there is no indication they every had an opportunity to sign is ridiculous, and he picked that guy because he had a good year, while the players actually available when they signed TT did not. (as an aside the Celtics probably had Ibaka or Favors #1 on their list, and both would have helped this team more than Justin Holiday given what we knew at the time.)
I can't say with 100% certainty, like you somehow can in calling someone intellectually dishonest, what Hollinger means. But to me he means a first wing off the bench when he says a Holliday-type.
 

Cellar-Door

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I can't say with 100% certainty, like you somehow can in calling someone intellectually dishonest, what Hollinger means. But to me he means a first wing off the bench when he says a Holliday-type.
Ok... who? And that is the problem with this as in much of Hollinger's analysis. He makes a lazy statement because he dislikes a signing, but then he can't point to an actual move that should have been made, so he invents a move that wasn't possible and says... "or similar", sounds good, but also doesn't actually present a plausible move that could have been made. It's 100% dishonest. I mean, I could say... the Celtics screwed up by not trading Kemba for a Harden type. Not necessarily Harden, but you know that type of player.
 

HomeRunBaker

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No. I'm saying to Holiday, again if he was the guy we're talking Holiday-type, we will offer you 2/18 if we miss out on Hayward(psst, we pretty much know we're missing out on Hayward. He told us he wants a bigger role than we can offer). Would you like that more than 3/18? No? Cool, I'll move on to the next wing on my list.



No, it's fucking not.

Quit saying it.

And again, you keep locking on to it being Holiday, and only Holiday, when Hollinger said Holliday-type.
I think you are both correct (or incorrect, I’m not even sure which).

Thinking back wasn’t it pretty much known that Hayward wasn’t returning here at that time? I think Ainge knew he was losing Hayward but knew he needed to address the 5 position rather than Holiday or a Holiday-type.

We had nobody as an option with Theis and TL Glass......we had plenty of wing options who could grab a second unit role in Romeo, Nesmith, Javonte Green, and even getting more out of Teague.
 

mcpickl

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Ok... who? And that is the problem with this as in much of Hollinger's analysis. He makes a lazy statement because he dislikes a signing, but then he can't point to an actual move that should have been made, so he invents a move that wasn't possible and says... "or similar", sounds good, but also doesn't actually present a plausible move that could have been made. It's 100% dishonest. I mean, I could say... the Celtics screwed up by not trading Kemba for a Harden type. Not necessarily Harden, but you know that type of player.
We've already done this before, multiple times.

Then I give you the same list of names I did before, and you say those guys all suck.

Which, I guess in your world, means it's just 100% intellectually dishonest to say they had other options, just because you didn't like the other options.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think you are both correct (or incorrect, I’m not even sure which).

Thinking back wasn’t it pretty much known that Hayward wasn’t returning here at that time? I think Ainge knew he was losing Hayward but knew he needed to address the 5 position rather than Holiday or a Holiday-type.

We had nobody as an option with Theis and TL Glass......we had plenty of wing options who could grab a second unit role in Romeo, Nesmith, Javonte Green, and even getting more out of Teague.
To me the thing is... I don't have a problem with arguing that they should have used the MLE on a wing instead of a big (I think it's wrong, but it's a legit argument) I just have an issue with people who make the argument then point to a wing who it's not clear was available when the decision would have been made, and it's always whichever of the wings signed before TT had a good year

We've already done this before, multiple times.

Then I give you the same list of names I did before, and you say those guys all suck.

Which, I guess in your world, means it's just 100% intellectually dishonest to say they had other options, just because you didn't like the other options.
If Hollinger made that argument fine.. but he didn't and that's what's dishonest, he took a player who was unavailable as his example because that player had a good year.

The argument isn't dishonest because it's an argument for a wing over a big. It's dishonest because it names a player who they couldn't get then says or similar... why pick a player who was already signed instead of one who wasn't? Because he wants to associate the success of Holiday in your mind with the idea of a wing. It's a common hack writer tactic and he should be better than that.
Edit- like, why didn't he say... Josh Jackson type? Who actually was on the market, or even Wayne Ellington... because he doesn't want to try and argue that those guys would be better signings than TT.
 

mcpickl

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I think you are both correct (or incorrect, I’m not even sure which).

Thinking back wasn’t it pretty much known that Hayward wasn’t returning here at that time? I think Ainge knew he was losing Hayward but knew he needed to address the 5 position rather than Holiday or a Holiday-type.

We had nobody as an option with Theis and TL Glass......we had plenty of wing options who could grab a second unit role in Romeo, Nesmith, Javonte Green, and even getting more out of Teague.
But, this is the whole point. I disagree with Ainge. I don't think the 5 position was more important than a Holiday type.

The way I look at it, they lost 3 rotation players that they needed to replace.

They lost Wanamaker, who left a dime sized hole in the point, and they replaced him with a dime sized Teague to plug that hole.
They lost Kanter, who left a penny sized hole in the boat, and they replaced him with a nicked sized Thompson, who plugged that hole and then some.
They lost Hayward, who left a silver dollar sized hole in the boat, and they just held their hand over the hole and hoped that would stop the boat from taking on water.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think you are both correct (or incorrect, I’m not even sure which).

Thinking back wasn’t it pretty much known that Hayward wasn’t returning here at that time? I think Ainge knew he was losing Hayward but knew he needed to address the 5 position rather than Holiday or a Holiday-type.

We had nobody as an option with Theis and TL Glass......we had plenty of wing options who could grab a second unit role in Romeo, Nesmith, Javonte Green, and even getting more out of Teague.
We had this discussion multiple times about potential options with the MLE. And while I haven't read back through all of the threads, IIRC, the consensus was that there weren't any wings really worth the $.

For example: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/tax-payer-mle-options.31622/#post-4074757

and https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/choose-your-own-adventure-celtics-2020-offseason.31603/
 

HomeRunBaker

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But, this is the whole point. I disagree with Ainge. I don't think the 5 position was more important than a Holiday type.

The way I look at it, they lost 3 rotation players that they needed to replace.

They lost Wanamaker, who left a dime sized hole in the point, and they replaced him with a dime sized Teague to plug that hole.
They lost Kanter, who left a penny sized hole in the boat, and they replaced him with a nicked sized Thompson, who plugged that hole and then some.
They lost Hayward, who left a silver dollar sized hole in the boat, and they just held their hand over the hole and hoped that would stop the boat from taking on water.
I feel a large part of the reasoning for not replacing the impact of Hayward at the wing was due to the expectations that Tatum and Jaylen would make significant leaps especially now with the ball in their hands more without Hayward around. I agreed with this and again, who was playing all of those minutes that Tristan ate at the 5?
 

mcpickl

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I feel a large part of the reasoning for not replacing the impact of Hayward at the wing was due to the expectations that Tatum and Jaylen would make significant leaps especially now with the ball in their hands more without Hayward around. I agreed with this and again, who was playing all of those minutes that Tristan ate at the 5?
Again, Theis, Williams and a minimum salary third string center they'd sign instead of keeping Javonte Green.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If you compare the Cs roster to other teams that are contenders, its painfully obvious that aside from the lack of experienced talent that they needed more wing help. I don't know how anyone could argue otherwise.

As someone else noted, like pitching, you can never have enough wings. Obviously the Celtics aren't the same sort of draw that the LA teams or other veteran squads are but they really screwed up the roster terribly this year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Except you're rewriting history... they didn't know they were losing Hayward, and they didn't know that they wouldn't get anyone back for him. Also... who knows if they DID have those conversations and players decided to take cash in hand over hypothetical contracts? The only things we know for sure are what players WERE available after they had the MLE in hand, and that several of them said no.

Holinger saying "Holiday-type" is part of what makes it dishonest, because who is the "Holiday type"? throwing out a player that probably wasn't available, then saying... "type" is dumb, because you're doing it because you can't actually identify a real player who was actually available. It's like when pollsters say... do you want this well defined thing that exists of this hypothetical ill-defined thing that can be whatever your ideal version is. It obviously polls well, but then when you define it in a real way it doesn't. Same here...

If Hollinger wants to argue the Celtics should have signed a player who we actually have some indication they had a real chance to sign that's fine, but arguing that they made a bad signing because they didn't sign a player that there is no indication they every had an opportunity to sign is ridiculous, and he picked that guy because he had a good year, while the players actually available when they signed TT did not. (as an aside the Celtics probably had Ibaka or Favors #1 on their list, and both would have helped this team more than Justin Holiday given what we knew at the time.)
Reality of the NBA is that the day Holliday signed is totally irrelevant because the teams and agents are talking and exhanging offers well before that (and playing out contingencies, such as whether Hayward did or did not sign).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Again, Theis, Williams and a minimum salary third string center they'd sign instead of keeping Javonte Green.
We had a min salary 3rd string center in Fall. It’s rare to find these guys able to play minutes in this league. It would have been irresponsible to enter the year with only Theis as a reliable big who just came off a horrific series. I don’t even believe this is even debatable given how much Tristan gave us this year along with what we now know of the extent of TL’s fragility.....which Ainge likely already knew.
 

Cellar-Door

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Reality of the NBA is that the day Holliday signed is totally irrelevant because the teams and agents are talking and exhanging offers well before that (and playing out contingencies, such as whether Hayward did or did not sign).
It's not irrelevant.
Sure teams talk contingencies, but the idea that guys like Holiday would sit on an offer that could go away at any point in the hope of slightly more money somewhere else if things go well isn't really supported by history, guys in that sub full mid-level area who have bounced around the league don't turn down contracts bigger than their first 2 deals combined for a no guarantees shot at a little bit more with downside. Guys like Jae Crowder or the like who have a bunch of years and money locked in and are looking for a ring, might, but to assume that a guy like that would have waited if you asked him to with no guarantee isn't a particularly reasonable position. Holiday wasn't available when the Celtics got to the point of having the MLE, something they weren't sure they would have, and that's an important distinction.
 

Jimbodandy

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I admire folks sticking to their guns. Thompson was key to a playoff win fucking yesterday, but let's discuss imaginary shitbum wing that we wish we had coming off the bench to take Aaron or Romeo's minutes. This place doesn't disappoint.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's not irrelevant.
Sure teams talk contingencies, but the idea that guys like Holiday would sit on an offer that could go away at any point in the hope of slightly more money somewhere else if things go well isn't really supported by history, guys in that sub full mid-level area who have bounced around the league don't turn down contracts bigger than their first 2 deals combined for a no guarantees shot at a little bit more with downside. Guys like Jae Crowder or the like who have a bunch of years and money locked in and are looking for a ring, might, but to assume that a guy like that would have waited if you asked him to with no guarantee isn't a particularly reasonable position. Holiday wasn't available when the Celtics got to the point of having the MLE, something they weren't sure they would have, and that's an important distinction.
The part about Holiday I agree with 100%. Here’s a kid who has made $12m over the previous 5 sessons and was 4 months from the Bulls dumping him for flotsam. There isn’t a chance that he was turning down $18m the second his agent called.
 

reggiecleveland

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I admire folks sticking to their guns. Thompson was key to a playoff win fucking yesterday, but let's discuss imaginary shitbum wing that we wish we had coming off the bench to take Aaron or Romeo's minutes. This place doesn't disappoint.
If they win the championship with TT scoring 35 a game, but don;t repeat he will get the blame.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If they win the championship with TT scoring 35 a game, but don;t repeat he will get the blame.
If they win the championship and he scores 35, he probably sold the Celtics soul to the devil and deserves the blame.

I don't get the TT hate though. He's a perfectly cromulent back up big.
 

reggiecleveland

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If the Celtics just had a healthy Magic Johnson they might have a better shot.

I didn’t see the “injury” that led to the bone bruise. If it wasn’t from a specific injury, the bone bruise is probably just the result of the stress of playing on his arthritic knee.

Running around on a knee without enough cartilage for too long = bone bruise.
LOl
Coaches do this when they are having a bad year, "If I just had a big" "If I had this kid who came off the bench last year"
Once I lost a high school game by 50 and said, "If we had peak Bill Russell, we probably take that one to overtime at least."
 

mcpickl

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We had a min salary 3rd string center in Fall. It’s rare to find these guys able to play minutes in this league. It would have been irresponsible to enter the year with only Theis as a reliable big who just came off a horrific series. I don’t even believe this is even debatable given how much Tristan gave us this year along with what we now know of the extent of TL’s fragility.....which Ainge likely already knew.
No, Tacko isn't an NBA player.

There were plenty of dudes available to be a third string center.

We've been down this road many times before.

Dwayne Dedmon, Hassan Whiteside, Kyle O'Quinn, Alex Len were all available well into the offseason and could be had for the minimum(slightly above minimum for Len, who was eventually waived, then signed for the minimum).

Those dudes are all just fine as third string centers, and are all probably way above average as third string centers, since those guys are non-rotation players when your top two are healthy.

People have been bringing this up for months, they need three centers because Rob Williams gets hurt all the time. Why? Other teams have centers that get hurt a lot too and it's really rare for a team to have 3 good centers.

I mean, looking at teams expected to contend

Embiid is always hurt, Phillys 3rd center was Tony Bradley
Milwaukee went with just Portis as a backup center, no third guy at all.
Nuggets third is Bol Bol
Brooklyn had Reggie Perry
Miami had Meyers Leonard
Clippers 3rd was Daniel Oturu
Lakers didn't even carry a 3rd since they have AD
Phoenix started with no 3rd center, and only Damian Jones as a backup until they claimed Frank Kaminsky on waivers
Portland has Harry Giles as their 3rd center
Utah has Udoka Azubuike

Would those minimum guys I listed be so much worse than this murders row?

And that's just to start the season. The most plentiful position to find help at the deadline, or afterwards as a buyout, for cheap is at center. This year alone Drummond got bought out, Theis was given away, Javale McGee dealt for peanuts, Gorgui Dieng waived, Dedmon signed off the street.

I get the Celtics wanting insurance for a Rob Williams injury, but insurance is a luxury when you have glaring holes elsewhere.

I mean, why was Williams getting hurt more of an issue than two of the top backup wing options being Langford, who we knew was hurt to start the season, and Nesmith, who ended his sophomore college season hurt?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I mean, why was Williams getting hurt more of an issue than two of the top backup wing options being Langford, who we knew was hurt to start the season, and Nesmith, who ended his sophomore college season hurt?
At the time TL wasn't good either. Relying on him for any minutes at all was a stretch.

It would be like going into next year expecting 20-25 minutes a game from Romeo. It's great if it happens. I wouldn't count on it.
 

lovegtm

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At the time TL wasn't good either. Relying on him for any minutes at all was a stretch.

It would be like going into next year expecting 20-25 minutes a game from Romeo. It's great if it happens. I wouldn't count on it.
Yeah, people are seriously re-writing history wrt perception of TL. Even for the first 1/3 of this season, it was still speculative to say he would be really good.

It's too bad he turns out to be made of glass, but his ascent was incredibly rapid and not consensus prediction. There's a lesson in there when it comes to projecting other 1st and 2nd year guys. They don't always work out, but when they do it's usually an extremely rapid opinion shift.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think Robert is probably as done as Jaylen at this point. Maybe not officially and maybe they will try to squeeze a few situational minutes out of him, but I don;t think we'll see him in any significant way.

Kemba is interesting because he is also dealing with some sort of upper body injury and he was pretty terrible in game 3. Only 3-14 from the field, 0-7 from three, 3 assists to 5 turnovers. Only positive contribution was 8 rebounds. But he played 33 minutes and the Celtics don't have an obvious alternative if he's out.

If he's out, who gets the minutes?

Pritchard gets some of those minutes, but his defense is worse than Kemba's so Brooklyn will hunt him and eventually Stevens will have to take him out of the game. Maybe Pritchard can get a few sub minutes when not all of Harden, Durant, and Kyrie are on the floor.

Smart is the best defensive alternative, which would mean more Langford at the 2. Certianly the best defensive option, and will also mean more minutes for Nesmith. Maybe Nesmith should start, since he might bring more offensive value on the floor with the starters - he's a better bet than Langford to cash in on spot up opportunities.

Then there are Waters and Edwards. Brroklyn will no doubt hunt them too if they get to play.

My guess is that Kemba plays and that we see the same kind of ineffectiveness as in game 3.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think Robert is probably as done as Jaylen at this point. Maybe not officially and maybe they will try to squeeze a few situational minutes out of him, but I don;t think we'll see him in any significant way.

Kemba is interesting because he is also dealing with some sort of upper body injury and he was pretty terrible in game 3. Only 3-14 from the field, 0-7 from three, 3 assists to 5 turnovers. Only positive contribution was 8 rebounds. But he played 33 minutes and the Celtics don't have an obvious alternative if he's out.

If he's out, who gets the minutes?

Pritchard gets some of those minutes, but his defense is worse than Kemba's so Brooklyn will hunt him and eventually Stevens will have to take him out of the game. Maybe Pritchard can get a few sub minutes when not all of Harden, Durant, and Kyrie are on the floor.

Smart is the best defensive alternative, which would mean more Langford at the 2. Certianly the best defensive option, and will also mean more minutes for Nesmith. Maybe Nesmith should start, since he might bring more offensive value on the floor with the starters - he's a better bet than Langford to cash in on spot up opportunities.

Then there are Waters and Edwards. Brroklyn will no doubt hunt them too if they get to play.

My guess is that Kemba plays and that we see the same kind of ineffectiveness as in game 3.
Can Waters actually play? I saw that ESPN listed him as one of the active 15 the other day and thought it was strange.

edit: Ahh, this year they can. I don't want to see playoff Waters.