Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

NomarsFool

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It certainly is very refreshing to see him be able to positively contribute. When he was putting up those 6-18 type nights he was hurting the team. It seems like he is reinventing himself as more of a distributor. For whatever reason, his shot is also falling now which always helps.
 

lovegtm

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The other nice thing in this stretch is that they've won some games where they lost the 3-point battle. For awhile in their bed stretch, the Cs were totally dependent on hot shooting (or cold opponents) to get wins.
 

TripleOT

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Kemba’s offense is key to winning, with Smart’s to a lesser extent. 28% gap in offensive efficiency in wins and losses for Kemba, and 22% for Marcus.

It looks like Kemba’s load management has him at leaat 75% of the player we thought we were signing. His usage percentage is the lowest of any (non-bubble) month as a Celtic, and April is the first month with a positive rating (120 ortg to 113 drtg).

Kemba needs to continue to try to score more off ball movement and less self generated. 38.9% of his buckets have been assisted, compared to his usual 28-31% over his career.

That’s really the key for the Kemba/Smart backcourt. Let the Jays do more of the heaving lifting iso scoring (Tatum 39% assisted, JB 55%) and play off them.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I hope some of the "illness" stuff is vaccine side effects.
I was just going to say that there have been a ton of “Non-Covid Illnesses” popping up throughout the league lately. It’s beginning to remind of the NHL’s “upper body injury” or “lower body injury” designation. What are these illnesses?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Guessing Jabari gets plenty of minutes on Monday. Wonder what DA will say about him on the broadcast?
“Jabari’s been a guy we’ve always liked. He’s always scored against us in the past but had some unfortunate injuries and is trying to find his way back. We think he can do some things for us that we need and he can be a good fit......yada yada yada.”
 

benhogan

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I was just going to say that there have been a ton of “Non-Covid Illnesses” popping up throughout the league lately. It’s beginning to remind of the NHL’s “upper body injury” or “lower body injury” designation. What are these illnesses?
in the old day's I'd guess Irish flu but nowadays probably avoiding Load Mgmt fines
 

lexrageorge

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I was just going to say that there have been a ton of “Non-Covid Illnesses” popping up throughout the league lately. It’s beginning to remind of the NHL’s “upper body injury” or “lower body injury” designation. What are these illnesses?
Did they eat the fish?
 

Eddie Jurak

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Karalis has an article on the Celtics improved 4th quarter performance of late. One thing he notes is that each of the core 4 (Tatum, Brown, Walker, Smart) is shooting better in the 4th of late.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/04/19/fourth-quarters-no-longer-flummoxing-boston-celtics/

Tatum shot 44.7% from the field in fourth quarters before the break, but is up to 56.3% in April, including a ridiculous 64.3% from 3. Brown’s percentages jumped from 45.7% to 53.8%. Smart’s rocketed from 28.9% to 46.7%. Walker’s went from 32.4% to 43.8%.
 

lovegtm

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Jed Zeppelin

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Dumb eye test feels like they're maintaining their offensive energy into the 4th quarter and actually running an offense now.
Smart's wide open forever three the other night being a great example. If I'm remembering right, that was a Tatum drive, kick out of aggressive help to the corner, swing to Marcus who had time to establish residence on that square of parquet before shooting.

To HRB's point below I don't think it's anything fancy or different, as much as it is making the pass when it's there.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dumb eye test feels like they're maintaining their offensive energy into the 4th quarter and actually running an offense now.
Is the offense really any different? Tatum is making his iso fallaways and attacking angles to the basket better now. The sets seem the same just the actions appear crisper.
 

SteveF

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Their shot quality has improved quite a bit since about the beginning of March.

From the start of the season to the end of February, pbpstats has the Celtics shot quality (expected effective field goal percentage based on a variety of factors) as 50%, 28th of 30 teams. Their TS% over that span was 56.46, 20th in the league.
Since March 1st, the Celtics shot quality is 52% (15th and roughly league average) with a TS% of 59.47, 4th in the league.

Other relevant stats:
Rim or 3 Frequency: Start-Feb28: 63.7% (23rd) Since March1: 70.84% (14th)
FG% at the rim: Start-Feb28: 65.87% (10th) Since March1: 69.67% (2nd)

March 1st isn't some magic date, of course. The point is that they've been much better on offense the past couple months.

The reason? JT and JB are taking fewer bad shots and have been better at finishing at the rim (well, looking at the stats, it's all Tatum here). That's been the primary difference to my eyes.

Edit: To finish up on this:

Rim or 3 frequency Start->Feb28: JT: 55.52%, JB: 57.36%
Rim or 3 frequency Since March1: JT: 65.44%, JB: 69.33%

Rim fg% Start->Feb 28: JT: 61.72%, JB: 71.05%
Rim fg% Since March1: JT: 76.15%, JB: 64.71%
 
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lovegtm

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Is the offense really any different? Tatum is making his iso fallaways and attacking angles to the basket better now. The sets seem the same just the actions appear crisper.
Think we're saying the same thing--they are doing the same shit with 3x more crispness and energy.

90% of NBA "adjustments" are finding ways to do the same stuff harder.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Smart's wide open forever three the other night being a great example. If I'm remembering right, that was a Tatum drive, kick out of aggressive help to the corner, swing to Marcus who had time to establish residence on that square of parquet before shooting.

To HRB's point below I don't think it's anyt
hing fancy or different, as much as it is making the pass when it's there.
Tatum was tripled. He kicked it out to Smarf, who faked a swing to Kemba. From there, he could set his feet, check the wind, order some nachos, and hit the 3.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/video/marcus-smart-3-pointer-vs-031900499.html
 

nighthob

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Smart's wide open forever three the other night being a great example. If I'm remembering right, that was a Tatum drive, kick out of aggressive help to the corner, swing to Marcus who had time to establish residence on that square of parquet before shooting.
I'm pretty sure that the Domino's delivery driver arrived before the defender on that play.

Did they eat the fish?
No, the ... salmon mousse!!!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMBsZC-FJNE
 

nighthob

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Is the offense really any different? Tatum is making his iso fallaways and attacking angles to the basket better now. The sets seem the same just the actions appear crisper.
Yeah, Tatum just has a lot more energy in the fourth quarter these days. I'm assuming that they've been giving him budesonide (Symbicort) before the games and that the corticosteroid has finally been getting his lungs back to baseline. When Tatum is mortal, everyone around him looks worse. But when he's Jason Motherfucking Tatum charging out of the phone booth in his funny colored underwear, and defenses are scrambling to contain him, everyone around him suddenly looks awesome. Funny how that works.
 

Smokey Joe

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Yeah, Tatum just has a lot more energy in the fourth quarter these days. I'm assuming that they've been giving him budesonide (Symbicort) before the games and that the corticosteroid has finally been getting his lungs back to baseline. When Tatum is mortal, everyone around him looks worse. But when he's Jason Motherfucking Tatum charging out of the phone booth in his funny colored underwear, and defenses are scrambling to contain him, everyone around him suddenly looks awesome. Funny how that works.
Albuterol or levalbuterol. There is no point in doing Symbicort right before the game. You might as well take it when you get up in the morning.
 

Smokey Joe

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On the other hand, maybe they are giving him..
NOEFFEX -tm "Improves your respiratory condition by harnessing the power of placebo"
 

nighthob

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Albuterol or levalbuterol. There is no point in doing Symbicort right before the game. You might as well take it when you get up in the morning.
I would have agreed with you until my doctor recently told me to start doing extra doses of Symbicort prior to exercise as the extra dose actually helps lung performance.
 

Smokey Joe

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I would have agreed with you until my doctor recently told me to start doing extra doses of Symbicort prior to exercise as the extra dose actually helps lung performance.
You can do that with formoterol which has a relatively quick onset of action. Don't try it with salmeterol (advair) cause it takes a while to get going.
 

bakahump

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Yet they almost (argument could be made they should have) won.

I actually thought that Stevens was pretty good last night using they Lineup in the second qtr that included the guy selling popcorn. Stole a couple mins.

Ainge said something that has me worried. Paraphrased "Worried about the toll the injuries have taken on our stars.....not them per se but them having to do it all every night". Something many of us have thought of and discussed.....but having an "Insider" say it was a bit worrisome.

Tatum is 13th in total mins played in only 52 Games. Only Lillard has as few games in the top 15 total Mins leaders. JT is 9th in MPG (in a year where he had COVID and has primary Offense AND Defense responsibility for this team). Everyone above him is a Big name player, but I dont think they have the same Defensive responsibilities on their respective teams.
Brown is 18th in one more Game played. 24th in MPG.

Tatum (and Brown to a lesser but more day to day breakdown way) is going to be a nub when the playoffs start if we cant get EVERYONE decent we have back.
 

benhogan

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Yet they almost (argument could be made they should have) won.

I actually thought that Stevens was pretty good last night using they Lineup in the second qtr that included the guy selling popcorn. Stole a couple mins.

Ainge said something that has me worried. Paraphrased "Worried about the toll the injuries have taken on our stars.....not them per se but them having to do it all every night". Something many of us have thought of and discussed.....but having an "Insider" say it was a bit worrisome.

Tatum is 13th in total mins played in only 52 Games. Only Lillard has as few games in the top 15 total Mins leaders. JT is 9th in MPG (in a year where he had COVID and has primary Offense AND Defense responsibility for this team). Everyone above him is a Big name player, but I dont think they have the same Defensive responsibilities on their respective teams.
Brown is 18th in one more Game played. 24th in MPG.

Tatum (and Brown to a lesser but more day to day breakdown way) is going to be a nub when the playoffs start if we cant get EVERYONE decent we have back.
As others reappear (TL, Fournier) we'll see Tatum and Brown get load managed a game or two down the stretch.

23/24 is pretty young to be concerned about Brad wearing them down to a NUB
 

HomeRunBaker

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As others reappear (TL, Fournier) we'll see Tatum and Brown get load managed a game or two down the stretch.

23/24 is pretty young to be concerned about Brad wearing them down to a NUB
Jaylen was holding his shoulder at the end of the game last night. He may get some time off even before they return.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Should we start getting worried about TL?

The other guys I'm not too worried about, although every game matters at this point in the season and I'd much rather be a 6 seed than a 7 or 8. Only a game up on Miami for the 6, but only 1 game behind Atlanta for the 4.
 

128

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Should we start getting worried about TL?

The other guys I'm not too worried about, although every game matters at this point in the season and I'd much rather be a 6 seed than a 7 or 8. Only a game up on Miami for the 6, but only 1 game behind Atlanta for the 4.
That was my thought too. I'm bracing for the announcement that he'll require surgery.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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From Keith Smith: "Kemba Walker is still sick and did not practice today. He's questionable for tomorrow. / Evan Fournier was in the building, but will not play tomorrow. / Robert Williams tried to practice, but couldn't go. He'll be out tomorrow too. / Marcus Smart is back and available."

Hopefully TL is close to coming back; as opposed to "He kept trying and it never got better so he's out for awhile."

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1384969320548249601
 

128

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From Keith Smith: "Kemba Walker is still sick and did not practice today. He's questionable for tomorrow. / Evan Fournier was in the building, but will not play tomorrow. / Robert Williams tried to practice, but couldn't go. He'll be out tomorrow too. / Marcus Smart is back and available."

Hopefully TL is close to coming back; as opposed to "He kept trying and it never got better so he's out for awhile."

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1384969320548249601
"Couldn't go" is not especially encouraging.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wasn't He Who Shall Not Be Named hurt one of those seasons, too?
I don't know who you are talking about. But yeah. He was hurt both years, really. First year he missed the playoffs, 2nd year he had some injuries but mostly gave up.

Like I said, I don't know who you are talking about but he rises to the level of his best teammate. It's annoying how good he is when he's playing with someone better than him. Plays at a close to top 10 level.