Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

lovegtm

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I wouldn't say it is "the team we've been hoping for" yet, but it is moving in the right direction. Will we get a healthy Evan Fournier back in time to integrate him? That would make a difference. This team should be #4 in the East, albeit with little hope of knocking off any of the top 3. I think that is where they wind up by the end of the season.
It get Philly and Brooklyn, but it's weird to me that everyone repeats this wrt the Bucks. They're noticeably worse than in prior years (when they were already overrated), and the Celtics have consistently played them well and shown that they have approachs to slow Giannis.

Bit of a nitpick and wouldn't matter until the (unlikely) ECF, but I'd feel pretty good about that matchup relative to others.

The same goes for the Lakers actually--they're very good with LeBron and AD back, but not as awful for the Celtics in particular as Philly and Brooklyn.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It get Philly and Brooklyn, but it's weird to me that everyone repeats this wrt the Bucks. They're noticeably worse than in prior years (when they were already overrated), and the Celtics have consistently played them well and shown that they have approachs to slow Giannis.

Bit of a nitpick and wouldn't matter until the (unlikely) ECF, but I'd feel pretty good about that matchup relative to others.

The same goes for the Lakers actually--they're very good with LeBron and AD back, but not as awful for the Celtics in particular as Philly and Brooklyn.
Fair enough - I’d certainly like to see them reaching the ECF or beyond, and your points on Milwaukee are well taken.
 

benhogan

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It get Philly and Brooklyn, but it's weird to me that everyone repeats this wrt the Bucks. They're noticeably worse than in prior years (when they were already overrated), and the Celtics have consistently played them well and shown that they have approachs to slow Giannis.

Bit of a nitpick and wouldn't matter until the (unlikely) ECF, but I'd feel pretty good about that matchup relative to others.

The same goes for the Lakers actually--they're very good with LeBron and AD back, but not as awful for the Celtics in particular as Philly and Brooklyn.
Agreed.

Philly/Brooklyn are walking on eggshells w/ their stars being pretty fragile. I'd like to see Miami/Indy get the 7/8 seeds and physically beat up the top 2 seeds.

Brad's to-do list, besides win:
1. Work Fournier into the rotation.
2. Work Rob in w/starters.
3. Start developing effective playoff rotations with TT, EF + 8-11 with defined roles
4. Minutes/shots for 8-11 in blowouts, no more playing 12-17 at the same time (sorry Tre, Carsen, Moritz, Aaron, Tacko)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Bit of a nitpick and wouldn't matter until the (unlikely) ECF, but I'd feel pretty good about that matchup relative to others.
Not that unlikely. MIL still has two games left with BRK and two games with PHI. I don't know how well MIL matches up with BRK but they certainly match up against PHI (they won the only meeting by 2 points).

So odds of MIL getting 1 seed while BOST being 4/5 + odds of MIL being 2 or 3 seed and BOS being 6 are probably low but not insubstantial. It will depend a lot on the two games BOS + MIA have in May.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He played a decent amount in a game against the Raptors early in the season and was just as bad. His scouting report out of college suggested he was a very heady, solid player and thus far he's been the complete opposite
Waters has a chance to have an Ish Smith type of career. Work hard for 4-5 years while figuring out the league and what is expected of you. Bounce around until you get an opportunity as a full-time rotation/part-time starter, play a dozen years in the league and earn $30-40m.

This opportunity is always there for heady PG’s who can bring some change of pace to the game. Few are able to take advantage of it however.
 

lovegtm

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Not that unlikely. MIL still has two games left with BRK and two games with PHI. I don't know how well MIL matches up with BRK but they certainly match up against PHI (they won the only meeting by 2 points).

So odds of MIL getting 1 seed while BOST being 4/5 + odds of MIL being 2 or 3 seed and BOS being 6 are probably low but not insubstantial. It will depend a lot on the two games BOS + MIA have in May.
Interesting, I hadn't dug down to that. Atlanta->Milwaukee->fingers crossed for a PHI/BRK injury is the optimal path imo.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Interesting, I hadn't dug down to that. Atlanta->Milwaukee->fingers crossed for a PHI/BRK injury is the optimal path imo.
Without thinking too hard about this, it seems that BOS's best path is for BRK to be 2/3 and BOS to be 4/5. The next question is what team has the best shot against BRK. I kind of think it's MIL since they have length and some amount of defense to play KD, Harden, and KI.

If that's true, then PHI being 1 / MIL + BRK being 2-3 / and BOS coming out of the 4/5 spot would be a great way to potentially avoid BRK.
 

Spelunker

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Tremont Waters is awful at basketball and should never see the court in Celtics green again.

Any team tanking should immediately sign him in the offseason. Not even hyperbole.

Tremont Waters is why G League numbers mean absolutely nothing.

I don't think I've ever hated a player after one game so much in my life.
I'm sticking with my call that they'd be more likely to keep Tacko :p
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm sticking with my call that they'd be more likely to keep Tacko :p
Maybe but he was the one guy in uniform who didn't play last night despite a 27 point lead.

I'll make a not very bold prediction and say Waters, Fall, Kornet and Wagner won't be back.
 

TripleOT

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Maybe but he was the one guy in uniform who didn't play last night despite a 27 point lead.

I'll make a not very bold prediction and say Waters, Fall, Kornet and Wagner won't be back.
I think they feel Kornet could be a contributor. He shoots threes, and can defend the rim a bit.

Them liking Kornet is a bad sign for Tacko.
 

lovegtm

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Maybe but he was the one guy in uniform who didn't play last night despite a 27 point lead.

I'll make a not very bold prediction and say Waters, Fall, Kornet and Wagner won't be back.
Hmmm, agree except for Kornet. I don't know what else they can get at the minimum that's a ton better, particularly with TT and TL entrenched. I'm sure there's some guy I'm not thinking of though, and these are are pretty marginal decisions that don't matter tons.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hmmm, agree except for Kornet. I don't know what else they can get at the minimum that's a ton better, particularly with TT and TL entrenched. I'm sure there's some guy I'm not thinking of though, and these are are pretty marginal decisions that don't matter tons.
They could always pick one in the draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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Even if that's true... they still picked Wagner first.
Probably because he has at one point been a pretty acceptable rotation big, and Tacko has always been a mascot?

Mo Wagner has been terrible since he got here, but if you're up big you see if you can get him comfortable and if he shows what he has at times in the past.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Probably because he has at one point been a pretty acceptable rotation big, and Tacko has always been a mascot?

Mo Wagner has been terrible since he got here, but if you're up big you see if you can get him comfortable and if he shows what he has at times in the past.

And Wagner can actually get playoff burn. Of course they played Waters, so that theory holds less weight.
 

Cellar-Door

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And Wagner can actually get playoff burn. Of course they played Waters, so that theory holds less weight.
Waters is there to eat minutes up huge so the real players can get rest. Wagner isn't trusted for real minutes so he gets garbage time. If he had played well maybe he graduates to deep bench big in competitive games.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Probably because he has at one point been a pretty acceptable rotation big, and Tacko has always been a mascot?

Mo Wagner has been terrible since he got here, but if you're up big you see if you can get him comfortable and if he shows what he has at times in the past.
Wagner was never acceptable in this league. I think it was as simple as “We know what we have in Tacko (and it’s not good) so let’s throw some shit agaiant the wall to see if it’s anything we don’t have to mop up.
 

Cellar-Door

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Wagner was never acceptable in this league. I think it was as simple as “We know what we have in Tacko (and it’s not good) so let’s throw some shit agaiant the wall to see if it’s anything we don’t have to mop up.
His combined WAS time isn't horrendous for a bench big his age, particularly this year (obviously only about 400 minutes).
 

HomeRunBaker

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His combined WAS time isn't horrendous for a bench big his age, particularly this year (obviously only about 400 minutes).
My eye test was much worse than these numbers. He’s the same player today except he isn’t getting minutes on a 20-win team. On/Off was horrific too. I can’t say or find one positive thing about this player.


2FD18929-6DEA-48FA-A817-D71B151DE244.jpeg
 

Cesar Crespo

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Acie Earl scorched the C's once too.

All NBA players are really good at basketball and are capable of having a good game.

Kornet is funny because if you look at the game thread from last night, it's the tale of two Kornets. Everyone was trashing on him after the first half. The 2nd half happened and all was forgotten. Although he's a deep bench player so that's not really a shock.
 

128

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Kornet is funny because if you look at the game thread from last night, it's the tale of two Kornets. Everyone was trashing on him after the first half. The 2nd half happened and all was forgotten. Although he's a deep bench player so that's not really a shock.
I like the way he plays (or at least tries to play). His lack of strength is always going to be an issue, but he has excellent instincts. He's a perfectly fine No. 3 center, IMO, and will be even more valuable if he can consistently hit the 3.
 

chilidawg

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Kornet is funny because if you look at the game thread from last night, it's the tale of two Kornets. Everyone was trashing on him after the first half. The 2nd half happened and all was forgotten. Although he's a deep bench player so that's not really a shock.
That was true of the whole bench unit, bad in the first half, great in the second half. Brown and the bench mob had a great 2nd half run that almost got to where they had a lead safe for the sanitation department.
 

lovegtm

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That was true of the whole bench unit, bad in the first half, great in the second half. Brown and the bench mob had a great 2nd half run that almost got to where they had a lead safe for the sanitation department.
I re-watched the game, and thought Kornet was solid in the first half as well.
 

TripleOT

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I re-watched the game, and thought Kornet was solid in the first half as well.
Kornet had trouble a couple of times with Harrell and looked bad there. Considering that Harrell destroyed the Cs previously, I didn’t hold it against Kornet.

He tried to stay in front and stay vertical, which is all we can expect from 7 footers who aren’t great athletes.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Kornet had trouble a couple of times with Harrell and looked bad there. Considering that Harrell destroyed the Cs previously, I didn’t hold it against Kornet.

He tried to stay in front and stay vertical, which is all we can expect from 7 footers who aren’t great athletes.
My hope is the C's pick up a raw athletic big in the draft to play 3rd center for the next 4 years.
 

cardiacs

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I also went back and watched and Kornet wasn't as bad as I initially thought. He looks like he came off the bench of an 80's NBA team with not much apparent strength which made me not take him seriously as I should have at first.
Kornet seems to have a good stroke for a big guy and seems to know what is going on a lot more than Tacko, who sometimes looks lost when he is more than 5 feet away from the rim or the person holding the ball. There's no way Tacko and Kornet are both on the team next year, and I guess Tacko will be the one departing as Kornet is a better fit here.
 

lovegtm

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I also went back and watched and Kornet wasn't as bad as I initially thought. He looks like he came off the bench of an 80's NBA team with not much apparent strength which made me not take him seriously as I should have at first.
Kornet seems to have a good stroke for a big guy and seems to know what is going on a lot more than Tacko, who sometimes looks lost when he is more than 5 feet away from the rim or the person holding the ball. There's no way Tacko and Kornet are both on the team next year, and I guess Tacko will be the one departing as Kornet is a better fit here.
Kornet is a playable NBA big in certain matchups. Tacko really isn't.
 

DourDoerr

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That’s pretty cool. Hints that he knows his role and is willing to do whatever. It’s an incremental upgrade if you consider he takes Fall’s place and that’s where they should be aiming. CBS seems to have been a long time fan: “Luke’s a guy that can shoot the ball, we’ve also been really intrigued with Luke for a long time because of his pick-and-roll defense,” Stevens said during Saturday’s postgame press conference. “He’s always in good position. He’s long, he effects shots; he’s a guy we’ve always had an interest in because of those two things.”
 

NomarsFool

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Odds are that Fall is gone next season, for sure, but I'm still optimistic he could play 2X 5 min stretches a game to come in and just disrupt the other team's offense given his incredibly shot blocking ability. There's a lot to be said about disrupting another team's rhythm and gameplan.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Odds are that Fall is gone next season, for sure, but I'm still optimistic he could play 2X 5 min stretches a game to come in and just disrupt the other team's offense given his incredibly shot blocking ability. There's a lot to be said about disrupting another team's rhythm and gameplan.
What could it hurt? It's not like Wagner and Waters playing the last 5 minutes of the game mattered much.
 

TripleOT

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With rosters expanding, players missing games due to covid issues, and the Celtics’ uncharacteristically poor defense this season, if Brad was going to use Tacko as a defensive disruptor would have been this season.

I previously thought he could be an NBA player, but after seeing him this season, I’m not sure.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Odds are that Fall is gone next season, for sure, but I'm still optimistic he could play 2X 5 min stretches a game to come in and just disrupt the other team's offense given his incredibly shot blocking ability. There's a lot to be said about disrupting another team's rhythm and gameplan.
The problem is that he’d also disrupt both his teams offensive and defensive rhythm as well. It doesn’t make much sense to me. He’s like really bad at NBA basketball.
 

NomarsFool

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I don’t know, in extremely limited action I thought he was okay on the offensive end. He can set a pick and be a rim runner. I’m more worried about him disrupting the defense than the offense.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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We just witnessed a display of elite shot making. Curry is indisputably the greatest shooter in NBA history, is on an incredible streak and almost beat Boston by himself. But Tatum was a bit better and it wasn't a freak outcome. He is an elite player and he finally looks healthy. At 19 or even 23, he almost certainly has more upside. Its staggering to consider what he might be in a few more seasons.

Tatum
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Curry
GSW vs BOS on 04_17_2021.png
 
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DourDoerr

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He's taking Theis's place tho, not Fall's.
Not directly. Theis was either 1 or 1A with TT. Now it’s RW, TT and even GW given the matchup before Kornet. He’s in a nice spot for his skill level as CBS can throw him out there for Kornet’s best look. It’s a roster upgrade whether they keep Fall or not.
 

Eddie Jurak

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That's good to hear. What KW has been really good at recently is driving the ball deep and finding the open man. If he can average 6 assists down the stretch that would be a real plus. KW doesn't have to score to impact the game or be really good on this team, particularly when EF comes back.
Karalis had a good article about Walker's adjustment to playing with the Js. More spotting up, especially from the corner, less pick and roll ballhandling, more distribution.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/04/16/evolution-kemba-walker-hes-adjusting-complementary-role/

Walker was 2-5 on corner 3-pointers on the road trip. The five corner 3’s that he took equals one-third of the total corner 3’s he’s taken in 36 games this entire season. And of the 15 corner 3’s he’s taken, 12 have come since the All-Star break and 7 have come this month.
NBA Tracking data shows Tatum is being used as the pick-and-roll ballhandler 29.6% of the time this season, a 4% increase from last season and nearly double the frequency from two years ago. Add to that an increase of 2.3% for Jaylen Brown from last season, and a similar bump from Marcus Smart, and Walker is starting to see a little drop in how often he’s running that play at the top of the key.

It’s a minor drop, but it’s happening. He’s dropped from 9.8 to 9.2 possessions per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler, and his number possessions as a spot up shooter have gone up from 2 to 2.8. It’s a trend that has been more noticeable recently as the Celtics get more used to playing with each other.
Walker is also becoming more of a distributor. He was averaging 4.6 assists before the break, but is up to 5.8 after and 7 in April.

More importantly, it’s the types of shots he’s generating. He’s generating 17.7 points per game on his assists this month, a 5 point jump from his overall season average and 6.7 more points per game than his pre-break average. So, in total, Walker was accounting for 29.5 Celtics points before the break, but 32.1 this month while taking 3 fewer shots per game.

Walker is dropping some of his dimes in the traditional fashion, hitting rolling bigs off pick-and-rolls. But he’s also using his gravity in the corner and moving the ball quickly.
Not directly. Theis was either 1 or 1A with TT. Now it’s RW, TT and even GW given the matchup before Kornet. He’s in a nice spot for his skill level as CBS can throw him out there for Kornet’s best look. It’s a roster upgrade whether they keep Fall or not.
Agree. Kornet looks like a a guy guy to have around in a limited, situational, deep bench role.

Going into the playoffs:

Starters: Tatum-Brown-Walker-Smart-Rob Williams
Bench regulars: Thompson-Fournier-Pritchard
Deeper bench: Grant-Parker-Kornet-Ojeleye-Langford
"We're fucked if we need them to play": Edwards-Nesmith-Fall(tw)-Waters(tw)

Which guys from the deeper bench get minutes depends on matchups. Grant for smallball defense, Parker for smallball scoring, Kornet to draw out an opposing big or take 3s while not being clueless on D, Semi to defend Giannis, Langford for wing defense.
 
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lovegtm

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I thought Walker was cooked?
I mean, he's clearly not KEMBA! anymore (he was KEMBA! as recently as 1.5 years ago). On the plus side, his health seems good enough that he might make it through 3 years of his contract, which is a big win from how things were looking not too long ago.

If he can adjust to this complementary role they can either trade him as closer to a neutral asset, or do 1 more year before trading him as an expiring (or having him opt out).

It's not what they signed up for in the summer of 2019, but things could have gotten a LOT worse.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I mean, he's clearly not KEMBA! anymore (he was KEMBA! as recently as 1.5 years ago). On the plus side, his health seems good enough that he might make it through 3 years of his contract, which is a big win from how things were looking not too long ago.

If he can adjust to this complementary role they can either trade him as closer to a neutral asset, or do 1 more year before trading him as an expiring (or having him opt out).

It's not what they signed up for in the summer of 2019, but things could have gotten a LOT worse.
I appreciate the serious response. Honestly. I just have been on the, "slow the "Kemba's Cooked"' train all season, so my comment was more tongue in cheek.