Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

[lexrageorge]

Also, the Globe article linked below seems to indicate that Tatum is improving:

Jayson Tatum says he’s still experiencing side effects from his bout with COVID-19 - The Boston Globe

The Celtics forward said Tuesday that he has had some respiratory issues. “I think it messes with your breathing a little bit,” he said.

www.bostonglobe.com

“It’s just certain stretches where breathing is a little out of whack, and I talk to the medical staff and coaching staff about it,” he said. “It’s gotten better obviously from the first game I came back and played.

EDIT: LTP got in a minute earlier, but the point still stands.

 

[NomarsFool]

With Cam Newton, there was at least some fan speculation about "Covid Brain" - basically a (hopefully) short-term impact on mental agility. We know so little about this disease, fans obviously can't assess someone's mental quickness, and there's also so many spillover effects (someone can seem less mentally quick from being extra tired). I feel like someone should be playing that Simpson's news anchor saying "Now is the time to panic!" Just kidding.

Unrelated observation, is it just me, or have the Celtics had more inbounds passes stolen so far this season than we typically see in an entire season?

 

[radsoxfan]

No $10 for you.

Tough but fair.

 

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

If you read the full article, it sounds like something that is getting better and not something that he’s dealing with all the time. I also have to imagine that taking a couple weeks off of workouts hasn’t helped either. Seems like something to keep an eye on but not be panicked over.

Jayson Tatum explained how his battle with COVID-19 still affects his breathing

"I guess it’s just a long process."

www.boston.com

It's a shame no one in the media had the presence of mind to ask him how he felt it compared to the typical process of getting his game legs under him, versus whether it might feel like something new. Maybe they will later on.

Either way it explains his lackluster effort the other night as something at least partly physiological, but it's hard to know if that's likely to go away a bit slower than it normally would, or something that might creep in whenever he's under unusually heavy load. And it's certainly something for Stevens to be aware of, just as he's aware of Kemba's vulnerability with his knee. Better to manage him back to full strength more judiciously now, than to have it rear up in the playoffs when it's too late.

 

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

That maybe later turned into a yes pretty much right away. FIrst topic of discussion pregame with Brad.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9l6_S4I31U&list=TLPQMTcwMjIwMjF3xKdLXcc1Ng&index=2

 

[NomarsFool]

The Athletic: Kemba Walker’s struggles, leaky defense & 3 more reasons for Celtics’ slump

Executive Summary:

1) The Celtics focused on trying to re-sign Hayward and when that didn't happen, lost out on opportunities to replace him at wing. The subsequent pivot to reinforcing the big and PG positions in TT/JT haven't really helped
2) Walker has really been killing the offense with his inefficiency
3) Injuries have been tough (although I feel like many, many teams have had injury problems as well)
4) The offense sucks - no ball movement, no free throws, turnovers, can't finish at the rim
5) The defense sucks - especially in transition

 

[joe dokes]

The Athletic: Kemba Walker’s struggles, leaky defense & 3 more reasons for Celtics’ slump

Executive Summary:

1) The Celtics focused on trying to re-sign Hayward and when that didn't happen, lost out on opportunities to replace him at wing. The subsequent pivot to reinforcing the big and PG positions in TT/JT haven't really helped
2) Walker has really been killing the offense with his inefficiency
3) Injuries have been tough (although I feel like many, many teams have had injury problems as well)
4) The offense sucks - no ball movement, no free throws, turnovers, can't finish at the rim
5) The defense sucks - especially in transition

The advanced metrics that I'm not very agile with might say otherwise, but I think 4 & 5 are directly attributable to Smart's absence. He may take a handful of cringe-worthy shots every game, but he generally keeps the offense moving.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

It's starting to feel like things are crystallizing a bit in terms of the Celtics rotation. Last night, with Smart and Theis out, Brad went nine deep. Two bigs - Thompson and Timelord - and DNP-CD's for Grant Williams and Jeff Teague. Nesmith played 24 minutes off the bench, and I thought played well. Pritchard did his thing running the second unit, often alongside Jayson Tatum. Timelord has his defensive flaws, but what he brings offensively with the lob threat, his passing, and even the occasional 16-footer I think makes up for them. The glaring issue last night is that the combination of Semi Ojeleye and Javonte Green played a total of 45 minutes. In case it wasn't clear before, the Celtics' issue is on the wing. Even with Smart and Theis out, they were fine at the ballhandling and big spots, with acceptable "break glass in case of emergency" guys that Brad just opted not to use. Danny has to find a way to upgrade those Semi/Green minutes. Smart will soak up some wing minutes alongside Kemba or Pritchard, but wing depth is the Achilles' heal of this team right now.

Even a suboptimal use of the TPE would be a massive upgrade. Sub Theis' mintues for Thompson (who I'm done with), get Smart back, and plug, say, Harrison Barnes in place of the Semi/Green minutes, and LFG. And yes, I think that means Nesmith needs to stay in the rotation for awhile. He should get 20 minutes a game for the next couple weeks. Defensively, I think he's earned it, and offensively, he's a real gravitational force in terms of spacing. Nesmith, Pritchard, and one-big lineups will really open up the floor for Kemba and the J's.

As an aside, I really think some of Kemba's struggles at the rim this season are at least partially attributable to floor spacing. Scal has been saying it for awhile - when Kemba challenges one guy at the rim, he's really good at getting into the big's body and finishing in limited space. The problem is, there's usually two guys waiting at the rim, because Brad is playing too many non-shooters.

Grab a rotational wing, spread the hell out, and let's go to work.

 

[benhogan]

It's starting to feel like things are crystallizing a bit in terms of the Celtics rotation. Last night, with Smart and Theis out, Brad went nine deep. Two bigs - Thompson and Timelord - and DNP-CD's for Grant Williams and Jeff Teague. Nesmith played 24 minutes off the bench, and I thought played well. Pritchard did his thing running the second unit, often alongside Jayson Tatum. Timelord has his defensive flaws, but what he brings offensively with the lob threat, his passing, and even the occasional 16-footer I think makes up for them. The glaring issue last night is that the combination of Semi Ojeleye and Javonte Green played a total of 45 minutes. In case it wasn't clear before, the Celtics' issue is on the wing. Even with Smart and Theis out, they were fine at the ballhandling and big spots, with acceptable "break glass in case of emergency" guys that Brad just opted not to use. Danny has to find a way to upgrade those Semi/Green minutes. Smart will soak up some wing minutes alongside Kemba or Pritchard, but wing depth is the Achilles' heal of this team right now.

Even a suboptimal use of the TPE would be a massive upgrade. Sub Theis' mintues for Thompson (who I'm done with), get Smart back, and plug, say, Harrison Barnes in place of the Semi/Green minutes, and LFG. And yes, I think that means Nesmith needs to stay in the rotation for awhile. He should get 20 minutes a game for the next couple weeks. Defensively, I think he's earned it, and offensively, he's a real gravitational force in terms of spacing. Nesmith, Pritchard, and one-big lineups will really open up the floor for Kemba and the J's.

As an aside, I really think some of Kemba's struggles at the rim this season are at least partially attributable to floor spacing. Scal has been saying it for awhile - when Kemba challenges one guy at the rim, he's really good at getting into the big's body and finishing in limited space. The problem is, there's usually two guys waiting at the rim, because Brad is playing too many non-shooters.

Grab a rotational wing, spread the hell out, and let's go to work.

I agree with all of this. Especially Nesmith getting small but consistent minutes. Really didn't get the West Coast White Out. Maybe it took Bey's slapping us silly to open up Brad's eyes (save the practice excuse, there hasn't been any).

Small quibble, I'd expect Danny to stay away from adding Harrison Barnes as the "wing option". His cost will be high in terms of assets, his contract isn't cheap, he'll eat up a healthy chunk of the TPE, and his role will be "bench wing". I'd barbell it. Go either super cheap (Ellington, Svi) or go for JayCrew time-liners (John Collins or Lonzo Ball). Make the necessary moves this Summer (move Kemba's salary) and match Collins/Balls RFA offers.

 

[Saints Rest]

It's starting to feel like things are crystallizing a bit in terms of the Celtics rotation. Last night, with Smart and Theis out, Brad went nine deep. Two bigs - Thompson and Timelord - and DNP-CD's for Grant Williams and Jeff Teague. Nesmith played 24 minutes off the bench, and I thought played well. Pritchard did his thing running the second unit, often alongside Jayson Tatum. Timelord has his defensive flaws, but what he brings offensively with the lob threat, his passing, and even the occasional 16-footer I think makes up for them. The glaring issue last night is that the combination of Semi Ojeleye and Javonte Green played a total of 45 minutes. In case it wasn't clear before, the Celtics' issue is on the wing. Even with Smart and Theis out, they were fine at the ballhandling and big spots, with acceptable "break glass in case of emergency" guys that Brad just opted not to use. Danny has to find a way to upgrade those Semi/Green minutes. Smart will soak up some wing minutes alongside Kemba or Pritchard, but wing depth is the Achilles' heal of this team right now.

Even a suboptimal use of the TPE would be a massive upgrade. Sub Theis' mintues for Thompson (who I'm done with), get Smart back, and plug, say, Harrison Barnes in place of the Semi/Green minutes, and LFG. And yes, I think that means Nesmith needs to stay in the rotation for awhile. He should get 20 minutes a game for the next couple weeks. Defensively, I think he's earned it, and offensively, he's a real gravitational force in terms of spacing. Nesmith, Pritchard, and one-big lineups will really open up the floor for Kemba and the J's.

As an aside, I really think some of Kemba's struggles at the rim this season are at least partially attributable to floor spacing. Scal has been saying it for awhile - when Kemba challenges one guy at the rim, he's really good at getting into the big's body and finishing in limited space. The problem is, there's usually two guys waiting at the rim, because Brad is playing too many non-shooters.

Grab a rotational wing, spread the hell out, and let's go to work.

To the bolded part: When Smart comes back, that is likely 25-35 minutes less for SO/JG (closer to 35 when Kemba is playing, less when he is not). When Romeo returns, that's likely the rest of those minutes, as RL likely eliminates any need for JG as defensive energy guy, while also providing more offensive upside.

If AN can continue to warrant 20-25 MPG, then the wing minutes for SO and JG, not to mention DT as a 4, or PP as a 2, significantly decrease.

 

[NomarsFool]

The "challenge" is, what do you do when Theis comes back? It seems like juggling 3 bigs is causing a problem - unless Brad decides to essentially sit one of them each night (which he could do, but so far hasn't). Also, there was no GW last night - which doesn't seem like a good situation LT. He should either play or be moved.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The "challenge" is, what do you do when Theis comes back? It seems like juggling 3 bigs is causing a problem - unless Brad decides to essentially sit one of them each night (which he could do, but so far hasn't). Also, there was no GW last night - which doesn't seem like a good situation LT. He should either play or be moved.

Anything they would get back for Grant Williams would be worth less than Grant Williams. There's really no reason to move him or play him. He's on the 2nd year of a rookie deal. If Grant wants to play, he should play better.

Why do you think GW should play or be traded? Do you think the C's would get a good return for Grant? Do you think the C's are better with Grant playing? Do you think his game is worth developing?

I'd guess he is actually traded as filler if a trade happens. Or he ends up like Semi and is probably gone after his rookie deal.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

I agree with all of this. Especially Nesmith getting small but consistent minutes. Really didn't get the West Coast White Out. Maybe it took Bey's slapping us silly to open up Brad's eyes (save the practice excuse, there hasn't been any).

Small quibble, I'd expect Danny to stay away from adding Harrison Barnes as the "wing option". His cost will be high in terms of assets, his contract isn't cheap, he'll eat up a healthy chunk of the TPE, and his role will be "bench wing". I'd barbell it. Go either super cheap (Ellington, Svi) or go for JayCrew time-liners (John Collins or Lonzo Ball). Make the necessary moves this Summer (move Kemba's salary) and match Collins/Balls RFA offers.

I actually agree with you. The Barnes reference was less about Barnes himself as the best target, and more about how I see adding a rotational NBA wing who can play defense, move the ball, and space the floor having a domino effect on the rest of the roster.

And to Saint's Rest's point, I agree that a fully healthy roster alleviates a lot of these concerns, but in the NBA today, there's never a fully healthy roster. The wing position has to be deep enough to survive at least one of Kemba, Smart, Tatum or Brown sitting. And while I'm high on Langford's skillset, I don't think you can count on him for anything this year. His hasn't been available, and there's no guarantee that if he is, he's a rotation-ready wing player.

The "challenge" is, what do you do when Theis comes back? It seems like juggling 3 bigs is causing a problem - unless Brad decides to essentially sit one of them each night (which he could do, but so far hasn't). Also, there was no GW last night - which doesn't seem like a good situation LT. He should either play or be moved.

Honestly, from a purely basketball standpoint, I think Thompson should sit when Rob Williams and Theis are healthy and not in foul trouble. I get the long term roster issue that creates, with Thompson here on a sizeable contract for next season, but the other two guys are just better. At this point, the only advantage Thompson offers is rebounding. He's never been a shot blocker, he is not a switchable defender on the perimeter at this point in his career, and the one thing he supposedly offers defensively -- defense against the handful of truly big fives in the NBA -- he's actually terrible at. Jokic abused Thompson last night; not a huge insult to Thompson, because Jokic does that to a lot of guys, but if we just need someone to stand there while Jokic either drives past them or rains jumpers over them, Theis can do that just fine while actually grasping the fundamentals of team defense. Offensively, Thompson is a black hole. He can't shoot, and can't elevate to finish at the rim, but if he catches the ball within 10 feet of the basket, you can count on him throwing up an awkward off balance shot, regardless of who's draped all over him, and open shooters in the corners be damned. Not to mention, no one even bothers to guard him outside the paint, which creates spacing issues even when he's the only big on the floor.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I actually agree with you. The Barnes reference was less about Barnes himself as the best target, and more about how I see adding a rotational NBA wing who can play defense, move the ball, and space the floor having a domino effect on the rest of the roster.

And to Saint's Rest's point, I agree that a fully healthy roster alleviates a lot of these concerns, but in the NBA today, there's never a fully healthy roster. The wing position has to be deep enough to survive at least one of Kemba, Smart, Tatum or Brown sitting. And while I'm high on Langford's skillset, I don't think you can count on him for anything this year. His hasn't been available, and there's no guarantee that if he is, he's a rotation-ready wing player.




Honestly, from a purely basketball standpoint, I think Thompson should sit when Rob Williams and Theis are healthy and not in foul trouble. I get the long term roster issue that creates, with Thompson here on a sizeable contract for next season, but the other two guys are just better. At this point, the only advantage Thompson offers is rebounding. He's never been a shot blocker, he is not a switchable defender on the perimeter at this point in his career, and the one thing he supposedly offers defensively -- defense against the handful of truly big fives in the NBA -- he's actually terrible at. Jokic abused Thompson last night; not a huge insult to Thompson, because Jokic does that to a lot of guys, but if we just need someone to stand there while Jokic either drives past them or rains jumpers over them, Theis can do that just fine while actually grasping the fundamentals of team defense. Offensively, Thompson is a black hole. He can't shoot, and can't elevate to finish at the rim, but if he catches the ball within 10 feet of the basket, you can count on him throwing up an awkward off balance shot, regardless of who's draped all over him, and open shooters in the corners be damned.

I agree with most of this, but I think that you undersell Thompson on defensive soundness relative to Timelord.

TL has looked pretty good in the last couple of games, but I'd like to split the minutes three ways at big until RWill has proven that the defense won't disintegrate when he's out there. Those easy baskets are killers. He hasn't convinced me yet.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

And to Saint's Rest's point, I agree that a fully healthy roster alleviates a lot of these concerns, but in the NBA today, there's never a fully healthy roster. The wing position has to be deep enough to survive at least one of Kemba, Smart, Tatum or Brown sitting. And while I'm high on Langford's skillset, I don't think you can count on him for anything this year. His hasn't been available, and there's no guarantee that if he is, he's a rotation-ready wing player.

The wing position isn't really strong enough to survive with all 4 playing. I don't think Kemba effects the wing position much. Wing play is anywhere from 96 to 144 minutes. The C's have Smart, Brown and Tatum to play about 100 of those. That leaves up to 44 minutes for players who aren't really wings to play wing minutes. PP and Teague at the 2, Semi and Grant at the 3, etc.

Sometimes it's not a problem, depending on other team's personal. If you have too many wings, it's never going to be a problem regardless of the other team's personal.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

The wing position isn't really strong enough to survive with all 4 playing. I don't think Kemba effects the wing position much. Wing play is anywhere from 96 to 144 minutes. The C's have Smart, Brown and Tatum to play about 100 of those. That leaves up to 44 minutes for players who aren't really wings to play wing minutes. PP and Teague at the 2, Semi and Grant at the 3, etc.

Sometimes it's not a problem, depending on other team's personal. If you have too many wings, it's never going to be a problem regardless of the other team's personal.

Kemba's only relevant to the wing issue in how he impacts Smart. Personally, I think Smart is a point guard, who just happens to be versatile enough to play alongside Kemba and defend opposing wing players. If Kemba is out, Smart is likely starting at the point, with Pritchard coming off the bench, and some other wing -- Ojeleye, Green, Theoretical New Wing -- in the starting lineup. In other words, when Kemba's out, which he is on the second night of every back-to-back, at a minumum, ideally those minutes are largely absorbed by a wing player (or combination of them) rather than, say, Jeff Teague.

 

[NomarsFool]

Honestly, from a purely basketball standpoint, I think Thompson should sit when Rob Williams and Theis are healthy and not in foul trouble. I get the long term roster issue that creates, with Thompson here on a sizeable contract for next season, but the other two guys are just better. At this point, the only advantage Thompson offers is rebounding. He's never been a shot blocker, he is not a switchable defender on the perimeter at this point in his career, and the one thing he supposedly offers defensively -- defense against the handful of truly big fives in the NBA -- he's actually terrible at. Jokic abused Thompson last night; not a huge insult to Thompson, because Jokic does that to a lot of guys, but if we just need someone to stand there while Jokic either drives past them or rains jumpers over them, Theis can do that just fine while actually grasping the fundamentals of team defense. Offensively, Thompson is a black hole. He can't shoot, and can't elevate to finish at the rim, but if he catches the ball within 10 feet of the basket, you can count on him throwing up an awkward off balance shot, regardless of who's draped all over him, and open shooters in the corners be damned. Not to mention, no one even bothers to guard him outside the paint, which creates spacing issues even when he's the only big on the floor.

I agree with you, it just doesn't seem that CBS agrees - although he may be coming around as it seems like we've seen less 2 bigs lately. But, that could just be because of health - Theis' injury, RWIII's injury, etc. I'm not at all saying TT is garbage - but I'd rather see either of those guys on the floor than him. I realize that RWIII makes defensive mistakes - but I think he's only going to really get better by playing, and then having the coaching staff show him afterwards what he did wrong. There is no practice. The only development the players are going to make is through playing in games (and whatever video stuff comes afterwards). If TT was moved, we still have GW available as a smallball 5 if we need him, and of course there is still Tacko

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The team has 8 players worthy of minutes but 3 of them play the same position so it's more like 7, and Kemba is a huge ?

Tatum
Brown
Smart
Kemba
PP
TL
TT
DT

If you replaced one of TT/TL/DT with a 30 minute wing, almost all the problems are solved. Ideally, you'd have 2 bigs in your top 8, and another big in your top 12. The top 4 and the added wing would combine for 135 minutes a game. The added wing would take another 30. PP is 25. The 2 leftover of TT/TL/DT play 40. That's 230 minutes with an 8 man rotation. Add in blow outs and injures, and you could probably play 2 other players close to 20 minutes a night. Ideally they'd be Nesmith and Langford. Other players would still have a chance to play as well, but it wouldn't be every night.

But it really just boils down to 3 of your top 8 players should not be bigs. If 3 of them are, this is what you get. I also don't mean in minutes. I mean in skill/talent/right now value. The 3 of them play because they are the best options despite their position.

They could use a playmaker too which is why someone like Lonzo would be great but I think he's playing so well NO ends up signing him. The need for a playmaker is also fresh in my mind so maybe with a healthy Smart and Kemba,, that need isn't as bad as I think.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I know folks are hoping that Marcus is the difference maker that turns things around, but in the 7 games that Marcus played after Kemba's return, the C's were 2-5 before Marcus got hurt. The two wins were against Chicago and Cleveland and Kemba didnt' play in the Chicago game.

So this season when Marcus and Kemba have played together, the C's are 1-5, including a 30 point loss to the Knicks. The C's are 6-11 in their last 17 games overall.

It's easy to say Kemba is the problem, but when Kemba hasn't played in back to backs recently, the C's are 0-3 losing to the Kings, Pistons and Hawks.

This team is simply not playing well with Kemba, without Kemba, with Smart, without Smart, with Kemba and Smart, without Kemba and Smart...Every now and then, they put up a good one like the Clippers win, or the 1 point loss to the Lakers, but by and large, they are just not playing well in any way.

3 point shooting seems to be the focal point of a lot of folks, but the C's are 9th in the NBA in 3pt%, and Tatum and Brown are 4th and 6th on the team respectively (Kemba is 8th), so their wings and Theis are actually carrying a good amount of the load and shooting the ball well. The offense is simply a mess on most nights, the turnovers are insane...

If everyone is on board the "they aren't a contender this year" train, well then I got news, they won't be contenders next year either, so they may as well hit the market hard, get guys like Nesmith and TimeLord and PP as much run as they can possibly get and start developing for 2-3 years down the road.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I know folks are hoping that Marcus is the difference maker that turns things around, but in the 7 games that Marcus played after Kemba's return, the C's were 2-5 before Marcus got hurt. The two wins were against Chicago and Cleveland and Kemba didnt' play in the Chicago game.

So this season when Marcus and Kemba have played together, the C's are 1-5, including a 30 point loss to the Knicks. The C's are 6-11 in their last 17 games overall.

It's easy to say Kemba is the problem, but when Kemba hasn't played in back to backs recently, the C's are 0-3 losing to the Kings, Pistons and Hawks.

This team is simply not playing well with Kemba, without Kemba, with Smart, without Smart, with Kemba and Smart, without Kemba and Smart...Every now and then, they put up a good one like the Clippers win, or the 1 point loss to the Lakers, but by and large, they are just not playing well in any way.

3 point shooting seems to be the focal point of a lot of folks, but the C's are 9th in the NBA in 3pt%, and Tatum and Brown are 4th and 6th on the team respectively (Kemba is 8th), so their wings and Theis are actually carrying a good amount of the load and shooting the ball well. The offense is simply a mess on most nights, the turnovers are insane...

If everyone is on board the "they aren't a contender this year" train, well then I got news, they won't be contenders next year either, so they may as well hit the market hard, get guys like Nesmith and TimeLord and PP as much run as they can possibly get and start developing for 2-3 years down the road.

You very well might be right. But we have also seen teams play below their talent level for stretches before going through some kind of come to Jesus revival and snapping out of it.

I'm not going to make excuses for them, but I do think that a team this young is rather dependent on practice. Have noticed stretches like this pre-covid, after they spread out the B2Bs (at players' request), basically eliminating those 3-4 day periods of rest and hard practice).

Yeah they don't likely have enough to get by a top-5 team right now even if they figure shit out, but I don't think that they're as bad as they look either. The Jays+ have done more with less before. I think that they just have this funk/identity thing to sort out, and lack of practice time fucks it up. YMMV

 

[benhogan]

If everyone is on board the "they aren't a contender this year" train, well then I got news, they won't be contenders next year either, so they may as well hit the market hard, get guys like Nesmith and TimeLord and PP as much run as they can possibly get and start developing for 2-3 years down the road.

They have looked pretty bad for the last 3 weeks. Our best player had COVID, along with TL. Smart has been out. Kemba is trying to figure it out. And Brad has a whole bunch of youngsters adapting. I agree that playing PP, TL, Nesmith makes more sense than playing Teague, TT, Green. Not only do those players represent more upside but they are better now.

No need to write this season off and DEFINITELY don't write off next season.

 

[lexrageorge]

If everyone is on board the "they aren't a contender this year" train, well then I got news, they won't be contenders next year either, so they may as well hit the market hard, get guys like Nesmith and TimeLord and PP as much run as they can possibly get and start developing for 2-3 years down the road.

I don't disagree that they are not contenders this year, and I don't see a path for them to get there this season. Nets, Philly, Bucks would basically mop the floor with this team.

However, there will be a shit ton of player movement this offseason, and the Celtics have a $28M trade exception to use or lose, and Ainge didn't give up a 2nd rounder just to let it expire worthless. So don't count out the Celtics from being in the thick of contention next season.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I know folks are hoping that Marcus is the difference maker that turns things around, but in the 7 games that Marcus played after Kemba's return, the C's were 2-5 before Marcus got hurt. The two wins were against Chicago and Cleveland and Kemba didnt' play in the Chicago game.

So this season when Marcus and Kemba have played together, the C's are 1-5, including a 30 point loss to the Knicks. The C's are 6-11 in their last 17 games overall.

It's easy to say Kemba is the problem, but when Kemba hasn't played in back to backs recently, the C's are 0-3 losing to the Kings, Pistons and Hawks.

This team is simply not playing well with Kemba, without Kemba, with Smart, without Smart, with Kemba and Smart, without Kemba and Smart...Every now and then, they put up a good one like the Clippers win, or the 1 point loss to the Lakers, but by and large, they are just not playing well in any way.

3 point shooting seems to be the focal point of a lot of folks, but the C's are 9th in the NBA in 3pt%, and Tatum and Brown are 4th and 6th on the team respectively (Kemba is 8th), so their wings and Theis are actually carrying a good amount of the load and shooting the ball well. The offense is simply a mess on most nights, the turnovers are insane...

If everyone is on board the "they aren't a contender this year" train, well then I got news, they won't be contenders next year either, so they may as well hit the market hard, get guys like Nesmith and TimeLord and PP as much run as they can possibly get and start developing for 2-3 years down the road.

Well, the hope is with Marcus comes back then the Cs defense would be better. However, that probably doesn't solve the problem. Even DA is admitting that this roster currently isn't championship caliber this season.

So I can understand your take about this season. But writing off next season already? I think that's premature. They could definitely have organic growth from within - KW could play better after getting used to whatever his knee is able to give him; JB/JT aren't close to their primes; and the Cs aren't like most contenders as they are super young - 9 players on rookie deals plus 2 G League contracts.

Agree though that if DA doesn't think that they are championship caliber and they aren't going to make an impact move, the best thing they could do is give more minutes to TL and more consistent minutes to Nesmith and Edwards and let them play with PP to hopefully get them ready for next year.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Well, the hope is with Marcus comes back then the Cs defense would be better. However, that probably doesn't solve the problem. Even DA is admitting that this roster currently isn't championship caliber this season.

So I can understand your take about this season. But writing off next season already? I think that's premature. They could definitely have organic growth from within - KW could play better after getting used to whatever his knee is able to give him; JB/JT aren't close to their primes; and the Cs aren't like most contenders as they are super young - 9 players on rookie deals plus 2 G League contracts.

Agree though that if DA doesn't think that they are championship caliber and they aren't going to make an impact move, the best thing they could do is give more minutes to TL and more consistent minutes to Nesmith and Edwards and let them play with PP to hopefully get them ready for next year.

To be clear, I'm not writing them off next year, unless they go into next year with basically the same roster they have now, and except for that TPE, I'm not sure what assets they currently have that could lead to them improving the roster enough between now and then. People have already written off Kemba this year, but we think he'll be better next year? Personally, I'm not as down on Kemba as most around here. Yes, he's terrible defensively, but they absolutely need him on the offensive end even if he's not shooting well, because he at least opens things up a bit for the Jays, and it doesn't require Brad to basically run one Jay or the other Jay out there separately for most of the game, because he needs at least one legit scorer on the floor at all times. On the flipside, I don't have anywhere near the hope that others do for Romeo, Grant or Edwards. I think TT, Teague, Semi, etc. are basically 12th men for a contending team, not the 2nd or 3rd option off the bench (never mind starters, in the case of TT and Semi). I love Smart and think he's absolutely the kind of guy you need on a championship team, especially when your core is as young as JB/JT. I also love Theis, but would love him a lot more as a backup coming off the bench for 15-20 minutes a night.

I'd love to be proven wrong, and I'm a complete C's homer, but I'm getting down on this team from Ainge's roster moves, to Brad's coaching, to some of the attitude/moping/uninterested play we've seen on the floor from the players. They have talent, they are young, and when they play hard, they seem to be able to play with anyone on a given night, but in a 7 game series, against some of these teams in the East, I don't know how anybody could have a ton of optimism. Unless Danny is able to hit a home run for the roster that I'm not seeing at the moment, I don't see a vastly different team this year to next, and I'd prefer we use at least the rest of this season to develop the youngs like TL, PP and Nesmith. If you hit on one of those guys, then the fortunes of this team can change in a hurry. Will they staple TT's ass to the bench and give those minutes to TL? Will they do the same with Semi to a guy like Nesmith? Time will tell, I guess.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

I'd prefer we use at least the rest of this season to develop the youngs like TL, PP and Nesmith. If you hit on one of those guys, then the fortunes of this team can change in a hurry. Will they staple TT's ass to the bench and give those minutes to TL? Will they do the same with Semi to a guy like Nesmith? Time will tell, I guess.

This isn't necessarily directed at you specifically, DOTB, but I've seen this sentiment a lot recently and it made me wonder - is there any actual evidence that giving young players more playing time means they will develop more quickly? Take Nesmith - he's averaging 15 mpg this season. If he ended up averaging something like 20 mpg would that really make a demonstrable difference in his career arc? Seems to me there is just as much, if not more, of a a chance that increased playing time before a player is ready for it will end up backfiring because the player will be in worse matchups, going against stronger competition before he is ready, etc.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

This isn't necessarily directed at you specifically, DOTB, but I've seen this sentiment a lot recently and it made me wonder - is there any actual evidence that giving young players more playing time means they will develop more quickly? Take Nesmith - he's averaging 15 mpg this season. If he ended up averaging something like 20 mpg would that really make a demonstrable difference in his career arc? Seems to me there is just as much, if not more, of a a chance that increased playing time before a player is ready for it will end up backfiring because the player will be in worse matchups, going against stronger competition before he is ready, etc.

I've never done a study, but I would imagine that the number of guys who get big minutes early in their careers tend to turn out better than guys who sit on the bench for a year or two watching. Of course, there's a chicken/egg problem with the question, because generally, a guy who gets big minutes early is pretty damn good, and will continue to be pretty damn good, and vice versa.

As for Nesmith, he's averaging 14.7mpg this year, but that's pretty much only because he's played 28, 24 and 21 minutes in the last 3 games. And it's only because the stat of MPG does not account for DNP's. He's only appeared in 13 games this season, and he's averaged 14.7mpg in those games. If you include the 15 games that Brad didn't play him at all, his mpg is really less than 7mpg.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I've never done a study, but I would imagine that the number of guys who get big minutes early in their careers tend to turn out better than guys who sit on the bench for a year or two watching. Of course, there's a chicken/egg problem with the question, because generally, a guy who gets big minutes early is pretty damn good, and will continue to be pretty damn good, and vice versa.

As for Nesmith, he's averaging 14.7mpg this year, but that's pretty much only because he's played 28, 24 and 21 minutes in the last 3 games. And it's only because the stat of MPG does not account for DNP's. He's only appeared in 13 games this season, and he's averaged 14.7mpg in those games. If you include the 15 games that Brad didn't play him at all, his mpg is really less than 7mpg.

A bunch of the HS kids disprove this, though. Rashard Lewis didn't play. Jermaine O'Neal didn't play. TMac and Kobe played sparingly. That was in the day of 12 man rosters and no G league too.

Playing a lot early in their rookie year is a good sign that a player is going to have a decent/long career. Not playing very much in their rookie year doesn't really tell you anything. I don't know where development falls into it. I'd guess playing someone who isn't ready would hurt their development though.

 

[BigSoxFan]

A bunch of the HS kids disprove this, though. Rashard Lewis didn't play. Jermaine O'Neal didn't play. TMac and Kobe played sparingly. That was in the day of 12 man rosters and no G league too.

Playing a lot early in their rookie year is a good sign that a player is going to have a decent/long career. Not playing very much in their rookie year doesn't really tell you anything. I don't know where development falls into it. I'd guess playing someone who isn't ready would hurt their development though.

I mean, shoot, David Robinson didn't even play a single minute in his first 2 years after getting drafted. Nesmith is well ahead of the curve here.

 

[Saints Rest]

The team has 8 players worthy of minutes but 3 of them play the same position so it's more like 7, and Kemba is a huge ?

Tatum
Brown
Smart
Kemba
PP
TL
TT
DT

If you replaced one of TT/TL/DT with a 30 minute wing, almost all the problems are solved. Ideally, you'd have 2 bigs in your top 8, and another big in your top 12. The top 4 and the added wing would combine for 135 minutes a game. The added wing would take another 30. PP is 25. The 2 leftover of TT/TL/DT play 40. That's 230 minutes with an 8 man rotation. Add in blow outs and injures, and you could probably play 2 other players close to 20 minutes a night. Ideally they'd be Nesmith and Langford. Other players would still have a chance to play as well, but it wouldn't be every night.

But it really just boils down to 3 of your top 8 players should not be bigs. If 3 of them are, this is what you get. I also don't mean in minutes. I mean in skill/talent/right now value. The 3 of them play because they are the best options despite their position.

They could use a playmaker too which is why someone like Lonzo would be great but I think he's playing so well NO ends up signing him. The need for a playmaker is also fresh in my mind so maybe with a healthy Smart and Kemba,, that need isn't as bad as I think.

I agree with this summary and its conclusion.

Put another way, they need to have their best 8 players -- which I think of as a playoff rotation -- assembled in these clusters:
PGs: 2
Wings: 4
Bigs: 2

Expanding it to a larger regular-season style 10-12 man rotation, you would add a player to each slot.

Right now, the top 8, as you note, are:
PGs: 2 or 3 (depending on where you slot Marcus)
Wings: 2 or 3 (depending on where you slot Marcus)
Bigs: 3

So they need another wing, even after slotting Marcus there. And one less big, though I would be fine keeping all three for the regular season when you need 3 bigs.

Internal candidates for next wing:

• Nesmith
• Langford
• Semi
• Grant
• Javonte

It seems pretty clear that the last 3 are unlikely to be top-8 material anytime soon. AN and RL have potential to be that guy, but unlikely to be so this season. It also seems like the two are a bit complementary in their current skill sets. Ideally, I'd like to see AN/RL be the 5th/6th wing, but if they improve enough by playoffs, I could envision them being the 4th.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

A bunch of the HS kids disprove this, though. Rashard Lewis didn't play. Jermaine O'Neal didn't play. TMac and Kobe played sparingly. That was in the day of 12 man rosters and no G league too.

Playing a lot early in their rookie year is a good sign that a player is going to have a decent/long career. Not playing very much in their rookie year doesn't really tell you anything. I don't know where development falls into it. I'd guess playing someone who isn't ready would hurt their development though.

Kobe played 15.5mpg in 71 games in his rookie year for a team that went 56-26 and lost in the conference semis. McGrady played 18.4mpg his rookie year in 64 games, and he played 23.8mpg during the last 33 games of the season. Darrell Walker almost singlehandedly destroyed his career that rookie season, and when he left is when McGrady started seeing minutes, and then they drafted Vince Carter and the rest is history. His 2nd season was the strike shortened year.

Lewis didn't play much his rookie year, but it was the aforementioned strike shortened season, he joined a team that was 61-21 the prior year, and he was the 32nd pick in the draft. He developed later on, but there's no way of knowing he wouldn't have been better off had he played a little more early on. O'Neal and Portland were just nothing close to a fit. He was literally the youngest guy to ever put on a uniform and play in an NBA game at the time.

I mean, we could do this all day long on both sides of the argument. For every O'Neal, there is a Lebron or an Iverson or a Tim Hardaway or Penny Hardaway or Stephon Marbury or Mike Conley or Mitch Ritchmond who came into the league and played big minutes immediately and went on to huge careers. Are the Golden State Warriors a dynasty if Don Nelson, Keith Smart and Mark Jackson had decided that Curry and Klay needed a year or two on the bench to develop?

If the C's were a team that I thought could go 55-27 or something this year, then let them sit around and learn from the bench, but the C's aren't that team, and they are losing minutes to guys that really aren't any better from any naked eye viewpoint and certainly don't have higher ceilings. What does TT do better right now than TL? What does a guy like Green give us that's better than what we've seen from Nesmith?

Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that Nesmith or TL should be seeing 30 minutes a game, but neither of them should have ever have a DNP-CD the rest of the year, and I would hope that both of them continue to play 20-25mpg. PP also...

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

To be clear, I'm not writing them off next year, unless they go into next year with basically the same roster they have now, and except for that TPE, I'm not sure what assets they currently have that could lead to them improving the roster enough between now and then.

I think you are down on this roster because the pieces don't fit well together and that's understandable. But if you look around at rosters of other contenders, you won't find any roster as young as BOS's. Hopefully, because of that youth, BOS can make some leaps. In addition to KW regaining form, I think TL, Romeo, and AN all have the tools to be solid or better NBA players. (For TL and Romeo, who Brad has described as a 10-year NBA player, a lot of it will depend on health.) No, other than TT, we don't have players like Danny Green or DJ Augustin or Derrick Favors (etc.), but we aren't paying guys like that either.

I don't think DA is going to make a huge deal this season because the prices don't seem to be right but I still think the Cs would be sitting very well going into next year with their current roster plus the TPE to use over the summer.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Just to be clear, I'm not arguing that Nesmith or TL should be seeing 30 minutes a game, but neither of them should have ever have a DNP-CD the rest of the year, and I would hope that both of them continue to play 20-25mpg. PP also...

I agree but I'm not sure how either one would effect their development. It looks like Nesmith might start seeing more minutes anyway. I'm not sure TL is all that good and I don't think developing him will increase his trade value either. I'm also not sure he has any DNP-CDs this year. 1, maybe.

 

[TripleOT]

Pritchard needs to play 25 mpg and needs to get 10 shots a night. Brown and Tatum need to be more decisive when they initially touch the ball off splice screens or pindowns. They tend to ball stop on the catch, and slowly go into their iso game, especially Tatum. Play quicker, and more downhill, and focus on layups and kickouts for open threes.

Boston has six players hovering around 40% from three: GW, Theis, PP, Brown, Tatum, Semi, and a potential sniper in Nesmith.

Move and share the ball, especially from one side to the other. Get all the way to the rim.

 

[BaseballJones]

Boston is also 22nd in scoring at 110.3 points a game. Let's break it down a little more.

Boston is currently 10th in the NBA in three-point shooting, at 37.6% as a team. But they're 22nd in three-point attempts at 32.9 per game. They're middle of the pack in FT attempts per game (14th, with 22.1 per game). But even though they're 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.0), they're 19th in FGA at 88.0.

So they're not getting that many shots even though they're a good offensive rebounding team. But they're not getting to the line that much, and they're also not taking a high number (relative to the rest of the league, of course) of three-point shots, even though they're a pretty good three-point shooting team.

So this tells me that they must be taking a high percentage of mid-range shots, but also have a slow offensive pace. They should be pushing the ball more and looking to get to the rim more and take more threes.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Boston is also 22nd in scoring at 110.3 points a game. Let's break it down a little more.

Boston is currently 10th in the NBA in three-point shooting, at 37.6% as a team. But they're 22nd in three-point attempts at 32.9 per game. They're middle of the pack in FT attempts per game (14th, with 22.1 per game). But even though they're 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.0), they're 19th in FGA at 88.0.

So they're not getting that many shots even though they're a good offensive rebounding team. But they're not getting to the line that much, and they're also not taking a high number (relative to the rest of the league, of course) of three-point shots, even though they're a pretty good three-point shooting team.

So this tells me that they must be taking a high percentage of mid-range shots, but also have a slow offensive pace. They should be pushing the ball more and looking to get to the rim more and take more threes.

They’re also in the bottom half of the league for turnovers per game. That does no favors for any of the metrics you cite.

 

[BaseballJones]

They’re also in the bottom half of the league for turnovers per game. That does no favors for any of the metrics you cite.

Yep. Good point.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm not sure TL is all that good and I don't think developing him will increase his trade value either.

This doesn't directly address whether TL is all that good but he has been stuffing the stat sheet. Here's a CelticBlog article on that: https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/2/19/22289851/robert-williams-insane-production-should-bigger-role-boston-celtics-daniel-theis-tristan-thompson

From the article (more at the link):

Against the Atlanta Hawks, Javonte Green became the 14th Celtic to start a game this year. This leaves Robert Williams, Tacko Fall, and Aaron Nesmith as the only Celtics to have only played off the bench. Two-thirds of this equation makes sense, but why hasn’t Rob started? In his 15 minutes per game, he’s blowing out most of his teammates in production. Here’s a list of stats and where Rob ranks on the team (note: all numbers excluding Tacko Fall):​

• 130 offensive rating (1st)
  • 102 defensive rating (1st)
  • 4.1 box plus/minus (3rd)
  • .227 winshares/48 minutes (1st)
  • 7.0 block percentage (1st)
  • 3.4 steal percentage (1st)
  • 19.5 rebound percentage (2nd)
  • .731 true shooting percentage (1st)

​

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I think you are down on this roster because the pieces don't fit well together and that's understandable. But if you look around at rosters of other contenders, you won't find any roster as young as BOS's. Hopefully, because of that youth, BOS can make some leaps. In addition to KW regaining form, I think TL, Romeo, and AN all have the tools to be solid or better NBA players. (For TL and Romeo, who Brad has described as a 10-year NBA player, a lot of it will depend on health.) No, other than TT, we don't have players like Danny Green or DJ Augustin or Derrick Favors (etc.), but we aren't paying guys like that either.

I don't think DA is going to make a huge deal this season because the prices don't seem to be right but I still think the Cs would be sitting very well going into next year with their current roster plus the TPE to use over the summer.

I guess your first sentence is why I'm worried about next year too. If the pieces don't fit well together now, and the pieces are going to be basically the same next year (with the exception of a possible addition via the TPE), why would expect them to get that much better? Jaylen has made a huge leap this year (and I've been driving the Jaylen bandwagon bus since the day he got here), Tatum seems to be Tatum if we account for the sluggishness due to CV. Smart will be who Smart is. After that, the entire roster could get worse just as easily as it could get better. Who is our big next year if TL isn't it? If I have to watch another season of TT, I'll kill someone. Instead of the DJ Augustine's and Danny Green's, we have Javonte Green, and Semi and Jeff Teague and Tremont Waters and TT....We're not paying out that money, but it's not like we have payroll flexibility either.

Offensively, I think Kemba looks fine. Some days his shots fall, some days, it doesn't. He needs to stop trying to take layups over two guys a foot taller than him, and he needs to play to contact a bit more, but I don't have a ton of issues with him on that end, except that at times, he has to work too hard but I think that's more of a function of who is on the floor with him than his health. That said, no matter what form he regains, he's still going to get dismantled on the other end and I just think we have to live with that and Brad is going to have to figure out a way to defend around it with help, etc. because with this roster, you can't afford to have him sitting on the bench when you need scores.

I love TimeLord, and I love how he's looked this year. He makes some mistakes, and you have to live with those, but he also makes plays. TT makes mistakes and doesn't play defense and besides offensive rebounding, he's a disaster on that end. There is just no explanation as to why TL isnt' getting TT's 22 minutes per night, and TT takes TL's 15 minutes a night. Just swap them with each other. I want to see TL out there every now and again with Theis too. I think that lineup with 2 wings (or one of the Jays with Marcus) and a PG (either Kemba or PP) would be very good on both ends.

if TimeLord can become a true top 10 big in this league, it will literally change everything overnight for this roster. If Nesmith and PP can develop into top 7 rotation players/starters, then you have the makings of something, but I don't think benching them during a lost season so they can try to learn from the veterans that are currently ahead of them on the depth chart helps now, or for next year. Get these guys on the damn floor, manage the loads a bit for the Jays and Smart and Kemba...

 

[bakahump]

I bow down to greater knowledge so refute, add or agree, But what the Heck is up with the TL Negativity? He is good for 8pts and 6-10 rebounds a game in 15-20 mins a game. Maybe with 25 mins he adds a bucket or 2 and 3 rebounds.
Does he have defensive lapses......yes. Are they totally egregious? I dont think so. Alot of the "failures" lately IMHO seem to be really good plays by the other guy who is a really good player.
Is he Al at the 5? Helping and cementing the defense? No. But Al was very good at that. I do think he is equal to or damn close to Theis in what he provides defensively. That said Theis certainly does some things better. But then again so does TL.

I think a part of this is Brad (Whom I love, and bristle at the "time to move on talk"). TL is not a guy who should be running around the perimeter. All too often his 6'9 and 86 inch Vert is out beyond the foul line when rebounds bounce off the rim. He should be used more Capela like.

I also think ALWAYS having the 5 set the screen at the top of the Arc is pretty tiring and a waste of what TL does/can do well. Sure he is good for a lob or 2 per game from the high (mid?) pick and roll but he also burns a tremendous amount of energy setting a screen out by the 3 for Js, running down toward the hoop.....letting the offense reset.....run back set a new screen....dive down towards the rim...cycle out....and shot goes up with our best rebounder now moving away from the hoop.

I guess a question I have is can you give me an example of players who make such thunderous WOW plays (like TL occasionally does with Blocks, lobs and rebounds) who didnt develop into a decent player? I am not saying he can be Garnett, I am saying he could (and if he did) become Capela and make this team really good.
Guy hits the 12 footer on the baseline. He hits foul shots. He passes quite well. And yup his D can occasionally give up an easy Bucket, generally when trying to cover up for someone elses shitty D.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I guess a question I have is can you give me an example of players who make such thunderous WOW plays (like TL occasionally does with Blocks, lobs and rebounds) who didnt develop into a decent player? I am not saying he can be Garnett, I am saying he could (and if he did) become Capela and make this team really good.
Guy hits the 12 footer on the baseline. He hits foul shots. He passes quite well. And yup his D can occasionally give up an easy Bucket, generally when trying to cover up for someone elses shitty D.

Kedrick Brown. JR Giddens. There are a ton.

I don't even think TL is bad, I just don't know if he's good or worth the long term commitment, considering he'll probably be gone after next season. I could see starting him, I'm just not sure it would make much of a difference. I think the real problem is all 3 of them are just meh at best. None are stopping Embiid, none are even stopping Capela.

You are right though. If it isn't going to be a stretch 5, the 2nd best thing would be something like Capela. Can TL play at the same pace for longer than 15-20 minutes a night? Can he do so without being over exposed? That's what we all want to find out but maybe BS already knows the answer.

 

[bakahump]

And thats what I mean about the insistance (at least to my eye test) on the High pick and Roll. Every possession TL sets a high screen and rim runs.....at least twice....while taking the pounding that comes with setting the screen....and playing D and expected to be "lynchpin" rim protector.
Al could set those HP+R screens because occasionally he could pop out and have an open 3. Theis does this too. TL....not an option. So stop using him to initiate the HP+R. Figure something else out. THATS why we wonder can he play at that pace for 20+. And in that scheme the answer is probably no.....no one can....unless you can take an occasional possesion "off" by screening....and staying out by the 3pt line. (like Al did, or Theis does, or Embiid does on occasion).

So I get it....lack of a 3pt shot hurts TL in that he cant take those plays "off" but damn coach put him in a position to succeed for more then 15 mins a game. Ok maybe the teams identity is a P+R team. But can we at least vary it a little.....preferably when TL is in and you can take advantage of his strengths.

Your probably absolutely right though....BS knows something that a moron fan like me doesnt see.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Boston is also 22nd in scoring at 110.3 points a game. Let's break it down a little more.

Boston is currently 10th in the NBA in three-point shooting, at 37.6% as a team. But they're 22nd in three-point attempts at 32.9 per game. They're middle of the pack in FT attempts per game (14th, with 22.1 per game). But even though they're 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.0), they're 19th in FGA at 88.0.

So they're not getting that many shots even though they're a good offensive rebounding team. But they're not getting to the line that much, and they're also not taking a high number (relative to the rest of the league, of course) of three-point shots, even though they're a pretty good three-point shooting team.

So this tells me that they must be taking a high percentage of mid-range shots, but also have a slow offensive pace. They should be pushing the ball more and looking to get to the rim more and take more threes.

I think it was Cellar Door that mentioned in the GT the other night how few fast break opportunities they seem to get despite having what should be a great recipe for success in strong attacking wings and good shooters.

The injury situation has done them no favors, for sure, but I'm seeing a real lack of desire to push the pace off misses. Jaylen will force the issue, but Kemba/Tatum tend to walk it up, especially Tatum. The team is really short on good passers, especially with Marcus out, which certainly hurts there too. But if they're this bad in the half court it seems like they could really benefit from doing more to initiate offense before the defense is fully set.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

And thats what I mean about the insistance (at least to my eye test) on the High pick and Roll. Every possession TL sets a high screen and rim runs.....at least twice....while taking the pounding that comes with setting the screen....and playing D and expected to be "lynchpin" rim protector.
Al could set those HP+R screens because occasionally he could pop out and have an open 3. Theis does this too. TL....not an option. So stop using him to initiate the HP+R. Figure something else out. THATS why we wonder can he play at that pace for 20+. And in that scheme the answer is probably no.....no one can....unless you can take an occasional possesion "off" by screening....and staying out by the 3pt line. (like Al did, or Theis does, or Embiid does on occasion).

So I get it....lack of a 3pt shot hurts TL in that he cant take those plays "off" but damn coach put him in a position to succeed for more then 15 mins a game. Ok maybe the teams identity is a P+R team. But can we at least vary it a little.....preferably when TL is in and you can take advantage of his strengths.

Your probably absolutely right though....BS knows something that a moron fan like me doesnt see.

The other big question about TL is whether his body will hold playing more minutes but at some point I think they have to find out.

 

[bakahump]

Covid Tatum? Maybe he is using the walkup to catch his breath.

I am trying to recall but blanking.....was Tatum a "fast break guy" at any point in the past?

As you mention I think Marcus is crucial here as he can fill that 2nd Runner (as initiator or running mate) role you really need on the FB.

 

[slamminsammya]

Boston is also 22nd in scoring at 110.3 points a game. Let's break it down a little more.

Boston is currently 10th in the NBA in three-point shooting, at 37.6% as a team. But they're 22nd in three-point attempts at 32.9 per game. They're middle of the pack in FT attempts per game (14th, with 22.1 per game). But even though they're 6th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (11.0), they're 19th in FGA at 88.0.

So they're not getting that many shots even though they're a good offensive rebounding team. But they're not getting to the line that much, and they're also not taking a high number (relative to the rest of the league, of course) of three-point shots, even though they're a pretty good three-point shooting team.

So this tells me that they must be taking a high percentage of mid-range shots, but also have a slow offensive pace. They should be pushing the ball more and looking to get to the rim more and take more threes.

You have to adjust for pace. When you do that they are 16th, but in a tight pack around 112 pts / 100. Last year they were in the top ten at about 113.8. At a high level the regression is almost entirely Kemba going from an All Star to kinda shit (in my opinion). When we get granular there are more specific problems but they haven't been that bad.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1362888718097526787

 

[chilidawg]

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1362888718097526787

That's from January.

 

[128]

That's from January.

It's a tweet from 5:16 this evening. Jaylen was listed as questionable on the injury report released yesterday.

 

[TripleOT]

Celtics eschew the mid range shot against ATL, hit 40% of their 35 threes, and take 50 shots in the paint, making over 60% of them.

The three bigs put up 43 points, going 21-26. Kemba played like all star Kemba, 28/5/6, going 10 for 16, 5 for 8 from three, 5 for 8 from two.

Everything is fixed.

 

[lovegtm]

Celtics eschew the mid range shot against ATL, hit 40% of their 35 threes, and take 50 shots in the paint, making over 60% of them.

The three bigs put up 43 points, going 21-26. Kemba played like all star Kemba, 28/5/6, going 10 for 16, 5 for 8 from three, 5 for 8 from two.

Everything is fixed.

They played with a lot more offensive force in the first half. Everything was 10x more purposeful than it's been. Kemba did the best job of this imo.

Nesmith being playable also has a trickle-down effect through the lineups.