Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,497
around the way
I've been higher on Carsen than most here because he's really the only guy outside the Big 3 who can create his own shot (maybe add Marcus to that list). Brad has played him like a catch and shoot guy buy I'd rather see Carsen play - like last night - with only one of JB or JT on the floor. Don't park him in the corner but get him the ball on the move and see what CE can do.
I explained your theory to my son as the game started and CE was getting early time and looked like a genius as he bombed off dribble shots and played great overall.

As you and others have mentioned, Edwards commanding that type of gravity opens the floor. We saw it last night, and against a good team too.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
1,322
I've been higher on Carsen than most here because he's really the only guy outside the Big 3 who can create his own shot (maybe add Marcus to that list). Brad has played him like a catch and shoot guy buy I'd rather see Carsen play - like last night - with only one of JB or JT on the floor. Don't park him in the corner but get him the ball on the move and see what CE can do.
It appears that his best usage might be in similar sets that they run for Kemba when the latter is on the bench.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
I explained your theory to my son as the game started and CE was getting early time and looked like a genius as he bombed off dribble shots and played great overall.

As you and others have mentioned, Edwards commanding that type of gravity opens the floor. We saw it last night, and against a good team too.
To finish this thought, I'm rewatching the 3rd quarter now, and Kennard was basically just face-guarding Carsen, in a way that really opened up the floor. If he commands that type of attention going forward, he's suddenly an interesting player. And yes, as @pjheff noted, that's very similar to how they use Kemba off-ball sometimes (drawing the face-guard to open up room for JT/JB).
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
One other thing I notice: I expect to see the Celtics run a lot of 2-small lineups going forward, since they seem to think that height is less important than speed for contesting/eliminating 3s (and I mostly agree).
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
One other thing I notice: I expect to see the Celtics run a lot of 2-small lineups going forward, since they seem to think that height is less important than speed for contesting/eliminating 3s (and I mostly agree).
That and the team is really small.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,309
Santa Monica
I just hope that when Brad does go double SMALL that he figures out the best combos (Kemba + Teague + PP is just a bridge too far).
You can pair Smart or PP with Kemba or Carsen or Teague.

Just don't care for the Teague/Kemba combo or Kemba/Carsen combo. That just creates too many problems defensively.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
I just hope that when Brad does go double SMALL that he figures out the best combos (Kemba + Teague + PP is just a bridge too far).
You can pair Smart or PP with Kemba or Carsen or Teague.

Just don't care for the Teague/Kemba combo or Kemba/Carsen combo. That just creates too many problems defensively.
Kemba/Carsen is fine against the right team. It worked well against the Clips, since Kawhi is the only post threat, and he’s still a workmanlike rather than elite passer, so you can scram out.

It’s also a fine lineup if the defensive focus is more on taking away 3s.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,745
To finish this thought, I'm rewatching the 3rd quarter now, and Kennard was basically just face-guarding Carsen, in a way that really opened up the floor. If he commands that type of attention going forward, he's suddenly an interesting player. And yes, as @pjheff noted, that's very similar to how they use Kemba off-ball sometimes (drawing the face-guard to open up room for JT/JB).
The funny thing is that I'm not sure what face-guarding CE when he sits in the corner is going to do. It's not like the Cs are looking to get him the ball so he can throw up contested 3Ps. In lineups with JT and KW, the only time CE's going to get the ball is if it's in rotation and thus far he has not been a great catch-and-shoot shooter.

Also it's not like Kennard has any chance of guarding Carsen if Carsen gets the ball at the top of the key with a pick to use. Which I wish BOS would use when only one of JT/JB/KW are on the floor.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,309
Santa Monica
Kemba/Carsen is fine against the right team. It worked well against the Clips, since Kawhi is the only post threat, and he’s still a workmanlike rather than elite passer, so you can scram out.

It’s also a fine lineup if the defensive focus is more on taking away 3s.
has Carsen passed Teague in your rotation?
I have a sneaking suspicion that Carsen has been shooting better in practice this year
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,309
Santa Monica
The funny thing is that I'm not sure what face-guarding CE when he sits in the corner is going to do. It's not like the Cs are looking to get him the ball so he can throw up contested 3Ps. In lineups with JT and KW, the only time CE's going to get the ball is if it's in rotation and thus far he has not been a great catch-and-shoot shooter.

Also it's not like Kennard has any chance of guarding Carsen if Carsen gets the ball at the top of the key with a pick to use. Which I wish BOS would use when only one of JT/JB/KW are on the floor.
I'd like to see Carsen on the floor with Smart. I really like Edwards effort on going over screens and playing physical with PGs on the perimeter. He adds a little ball pressure. If I squint I could see Carsen's defense being a slight positive (better than Teague) in the right rotation.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
has Carsen passed Teague in your rotation?
I have a sneaking suspicion that Carsen has been shooting better in practice this year
Yeah, he’s pretty obviously passed Teague in both my and Brad’s hearts. As you note, his increased usage strongly suggests that he’s shooting well in practice.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Going into this season, I was not very high on Carsen or Grant. In fact, I may have been the most vocal critic against both but now I see a path for both of them to be contributors despite actually being really bad fits for the roster for different reasons. Both are/were being used wrong and not to their strengths (or alleged strengths).

As WBCD and others have noted, Edwards should not be a spot up 3 point shooter. That is not his game. His game is more Kemba. This is why he's a tricky play. If he's on the court, you want him being the 1st or 2nd scoring option, otherwise he's useless. He also shouldn't be playing alongside Kemba Walker. So, one of Tatum/Brown has to be on the bench with Walker to play Edwards optimally. Sitting one of Brown/Tatum will also amplify the defensive issues of Edwards. Really, he'd be looking at a 15-18 minute role at most, but I'd rather he play those 15 minutes than Jeff Teague. I don't see what Teague really has to offer. Edwards should really be working on his playmaking ability too so that he can play alongside Tatum and Brown.

Cross posting what I posted about Grant in another thread:

If I had my way, I'd be trying Grant Williams in a 1 big lineup more often. Size would definitely be an issue but there are trade offs. Grant is supposed to be a pretty good passer (college stats back this up a little bit) and now that he's hitting the 3 point shot... it would be a very different look than the current 3 headed monster.

I'm still not on the Grant bus and never was. I'm coming around though and can see a role for him if he continues to hit the 3 and improves the volume a little. (.380+ on 5.0+ 3PA/36 ideally). I can see a much bigger role for him if he actually is a pretty decent passer and he's allowed to incorporate it more. AKA the Draymond Green comparison, though I think even then the comparison sucks. Grant also has some serious foul issues he would have to work on for a more serious role too. I don't think we'll ever see Grant average 6 or 7 apg like Draymond but he did average 3.2 apg his last season in college. I think he'd have to improve his conditioning a bit and work on limiting the fouls (the 2 are probably linked a bit) but if he really could give the C's 25 mpg, 10-12 points, 5 rebounds, 3.5 assists on .400/.380/.800 shooting,
Semi Ojeleye has also returned to earth. I was all for him getting more minutes to see if he could keep us his play, but he could not. So I'd be reducing his role again too.

My minutes break down for now (minus Langford) would be
Tatum 33
Brown 33
Smart 30
Kemba 30
Pritchard 25
Grant 20
TL 20
Theis 20
Edwards 15
Nesmith 8

-------- Injuries/blowouts/garbage minutes (in order of how much value I think they offer/will offer on the court)
TT
Semi
Teague
Green
Fall
Waters

There's always someone missing a game or two so there will always be plenty of minutes for the bottom 6. I'd be making sure the top 10 get minutes every game. When Langford comes back, I'd reevaluate. It's possible Edwards gets 4-5 games to prove himself and completely sucks. I just think he's earned a shot. Nesmith hasn't really earned much but I'd like to see him get development time.

TT probably deserves minutes just to keep him fresh too.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
This team is so much worse defensively than it should be, given personnel. It's 75% on the players and their effort. Brown was awful at the point of attack on 3-4 occasions, and their rotations are back to being total shit after a good stretch against LAC.

I also put it 25% on the coaching staff for not putting players in position to succeed. These double-big lineups waste ~15-20 mins/game that could be spent getting reps with real lineups that have enough speed to rotate and take away 3s. Right now when they do get those lineups out there, they're failing due to lack of communication and chemistry.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,074
It's scary to think that the Jazz were that good offensively on a night when they were missing their starting point guard.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
It's scary to think that the Jazz were that good offensively on a night when they were missing their starting point guard.
The Celtics defense this year is making a lot of teams look like the prime Warriors.

I'm probably more optimistic than most regarding this team's personnel (assuming they make a deal for a wing), but I'm starting to get extremely worried about the lack of defensive execution.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,074
Is Utah heavily into the luxury tax? Maybe guys like Ingles, Clarkson, Bogdanovich and Favors are on reasonable contracts, but aren't Mitchell, Gobert and Conley making a ton of money each?

Whatever the case, the Jazz's GM has put together a fantastic roster.
 
Last edited:

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,217
Is Utah heavily into the luxury tax? Maybe guys like Ingles, Clarkson, Bogdanovich and Favors are on reasonable contracts, but aren't Mitchell, Gobert and Conley making a ton of money each?

Whatever the case, the Jazz's GM has put together a fantastic roster.
They're just below the luxury tax limit this year. Next year, Mitchell's new contract kicks in as well as Gobert's so that will effectively replace the loss of Conley's $34M expiring deal.
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
10,132
I don't get why Tatum is playing 38 minutes, and Brown 37 when they get blown out.
Did you watch the game? It was 108 to 104 with 3:10 left in the fourth. It looks like a blowout now after the wheels came off the last few minutes, but it was within reach most of the game.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,497
around the way
This team is so much worse defensively than it should be, given personnel. It's 75% on the players and their effort. Brown was awful at the point of attack on 3-4 occasions, and their rotations are back to being total shit after a good stretch against LAC.

I also put it 25% on the coaching staff for not putting players in position to succeed. These double-big lineups waste ~15-20 mins/game that could be spent getting reps with real lineups that have enough speed to rotate and take away 3s. Right now when they do get those lineups out there, they're failing due to lack of communication and chemistry.
The defensive communication was as bad as I've ever seen. TL was utterly useless at that end. A few times that Grant or Jaylen overplayed one side, to influence their guy to a specific area, but the help just wasn't there. The guy whose job it was to pick up was doing something else entirely. Often that was RWill. He was unplayable despite being active on offense. They also really miss Smart IMO.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,234
It was a different look with the lineups last night. They had significant stretches with Semi/Tatum I guess playing at the off-guard spot. They also had a stretch with no traditional PG on the floor. We also saw much less of the double-PG looks. I could be wrong, but I didn't remember seeing PP and KW on the floor together. Jeff Teague and KW were on the floor together for just under 3 minutes (in the stats that don't matter dept, Jeff Teague was the only Celtic with a positive +/- in his 3 minutes of play).
 
Last edited:

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,745
It was a different look with the lineups last night. They had significant stretches with Semi/Tatum I guess playing at the off-guard spot. They also had a stretch with no traditional PG on the floor. We also saw much less of the double-PG looks. I could be wrong, but I didn't remember seeing PP and KW on the floor together. JT and KW were on the floor together for just under 3 minutes (in the stats that don't matter dept, JT was the only Celtic with a positive +/- in his 3 minutes of play).
Do you mean the second half? Because JT and KW started the game together so unless I misunderstanding what you wrote (totally possible), don't see how JT and KW played only 3 minutes together.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,864
So here's a trade idea from Hardwood Houdini that gets us Barnes:

Celts get:
Harrison Barnes
Willie Cauley-Stein
Tyrese Haliburton

Kings get:
Porzingis
Wes Iwundu
Boston's '21 and '23 first round picks
Dallas' '25 first round pick

Mavs get (wait for it ...):
Kemba Walker
Marvin Bagley III

Who says no? (Try not to laugh.) Seriously, if I'm Danny, I do that trade all day long.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,217
So here's a trade idea from Hardwood Houdini that gets us Barnes:

Celts get:
Harrison Barnes
Willie Cauley-Stein
Tyrese Haliburton

Kings get:
Porzingis
Wes Iwundu
Boston's '21 and '23 first round picks
Dallas' '25 first round pick

Mavs get (wait for it ...):
Kemba Walker
Marvin Bagley III

Who says no? (Try not to laugh.) Seriously, if I'm Danny, I do that trade all day long.
That’s a trade that a video game wouldn’t even allow.
 

teddykgb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
11,068
Chelmsford, MA
So here's a trade idea from Hardwood Houdini that gets us Barnes:

Celts get:
Harrison Barnes
Willie Cauley-Stein
Tyrese Haliburton

Kings get:
Porzingis
Wes Iwundu
Boston's '21 and '23 first round picks
Dallas' '25 first round pick

Mavs get (wait for it ...):
Kemba Walker
Marvin Bagley III

Who says no? (Try not to laugh.) Seriously, if I'm Danny, I do that trade all day long.
I like trades where we get all the best players and get rid of our biggest problem too
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,309
Santa Monica
So here's a trade idea from Hardwood Houdini that gets us Barnes:

Celts get:
Harrison Barnes
Willie Cauley-Stein
Tyrese Haliburton

Kings get:
Porzingis
Wes Iwundu
Boston's '21 and '23 first round picks
Dallas' '25 first round pick

Mavs get (wait for it ...):
Kemba Walker
Marvin Bagley III

Who says no? (Try not to laugh.) Seriously, if I'm Danny, I do that trade all day long.
hold out for Luka

at this point, I'd staple two firsts to Kemba and take back 2 expiring contracts in James Johnson/Hardawy
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,705
That’s a trade that a video game wouldn’t even allow.
Yeah, the Kings get to unload Barnes and Bagley and all it costs them is Haliburton? Totally unrealistic. They need to be including some first round picks...
 

Lazy vs Crazy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
6,422
Why is Sac even in that fake trade? Wouldn't the Celtics rather just get Zinger out of this if Kemba is going to Dallas?
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,660
Why is Sac even in that fake trade? Wouldn't the Celtics rather just get Zinger out of this if Kemba is going to Dallas?
I wouldn't. Porzingis has a pretty horrifying contract given his defense has fallen off a cliff and he's a mediocre non-stretch big at this point.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,335
I think Dallas says no, because while Porzingis has been bad this year he was good in the bubble and it's pretty hard right now to explain how they get good before Luka's contract expires without Porzingis being a part of it as an impact guy. I doubt they buy Bagley, though I guess anything is possible.

Sacramento also likely says no, as they are trading Haliburton for low first round picks....which makes no sense for them

As fake trades go this feels like a pretty unrealistic one....
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
I'm pretty happy that the two biggest adjustments against Toronto were the ones I was clamoring for hardest:

1. Put the players in position to succeed by playing 1-big lineups. They were having a way easier time closing out and staying home on 3-point shooters with the extra speed, and that makes everything easier defensively. Funny how players play with more energy and communicate better when they're put in the right defensive roles.

2. Get Kemba off ball more. They ran way more stuff with Tatum, Brown, and Pritchard as the initiators, and let Kemba either pass the ball quickly off attacks, or get the ball attacking closeouts. The result was fewer Kemba hopeless drives, and better spacing for the initiators, since Kemba always draws a lot of attention. Imo, this is the only reasonable path to maximizing this version of Kemba and getting a $15-20M player out of him.

The final point isn't mine; it's one everyone knows: building around Brown and Tatum isn't hard. You just need lineups with one lunchpail big who can D+screen, a ball-handler+shooter, and a ~37% wing shooter, and you've got a good offense and defense. I'd love to upgrade the wing, and I'm sure Danny would too, but Grant and Semi are fine in that role for the regular season. You can also play two small guards, depending on the matchup.
 

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,913
I wasn’t able to watch super closely to the Toronto game but it seemed like they took the strategy of blitzing Tatum and Brown frequently. Even when they were both on the court. The result was the Jays combined for 19 assists, 7 turnovers, and only 29 points on some really poor shooting. Had the supporting cast not had a banner night — Semi/PP/Kemba 17/24 from 3 (!!!) I think they get roasted. I saw a lot of those guys forcing the issue one on two and missing the quick interior or cross court passes that were opening up.

I hope more teams do that because it’s a very good strategy. They’re both great iso scorers who are mediocre at creating for others. They need the practice now instead of trying to figure it out when teams try it in the playoffs.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,497
around the way
I wasn’t able to watch super closely to the Toronto game but it seemed like they took the strategy of blitzing Tatum and Brown frequently. Even when they were both on the court. The result was the Jays combined for 19 assists, 7 turnovers, and only 29 points on some really poor shooting. Had the supporting cast not had a banner night — Semi/PP/Kemba 17/24 from 3 (!!!) I think they get roasted. I saw a lot of those guys forcing the issue one on two and missing the quick interior or cross court passes that were opening up.

I hope more teams do that because it’s a very good strategy. They’re both great iso scorers who are mediocre at creating for others. They need the practice now instead of trying to figure it out when teams try it in the playoffs.
Someone (probably Scal) was talking early in the game about passing being a Stevens point of emphasis before the game. They knew that Toronto was going to throw extra guys at the Jays and dare Semi et al. to punish them for it. And they did.

I think that the poor shooting was mostly ball luck, at least in Brown's case. Both were getting fewer good looks, but even those were rimming out. Looked like JB in particular caught a mild case of Jeff Teague luck.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,309
Santa Monica
You just need lineups with one lunchpail big who can D+screen, a ball-handler+shooter, and a ~37% wing shooter, and you've got a good offense and defense. I'd love to upgrade the wing, and I'm sure Danny would too, but Grant and Semi are fine in that role for the regular season. You can also play two small guards, depending on the matchup.
Agreed with all of the post. Bolded the part for those that are confused with the roster construction. The bold needs to be printed out, and laminated. That's exactly how a balanced Celtic lineup looks with Brown and Tatum.

Regular season rotation experimentation has been Brad's jam, while frustrating to watch, it's what he has done for the last few seasons. Covid makes the regular season a lot less important so he will probably continue with it. The first 22 games were one giant Petry dish. Expecting the DT/TT experiment to be tossed aside.

2. Get Kemba off ball more. They ran way more stuff with Tatum, Brown, and Pritchard as the initiators, and let Kemba either pass the ball quickly off attacks, or get the ball attacking closeouts. The result was fewer Kemba hopeless drives, and better spacing for the initiators, since Kemba always draws a lot of attention. Imo, this is the only reasonable path to maximizing this version of Kemba and getting a $15-20M player out of him.
Moves still need to be made by the trade deadline and a wing would be nice. BUT building Kemba's value & moving him is the priority move for this season/Summer. You don't want to move 2 draft picks and use the cap on Harrison Barnes when the biggest issue BY FAR with this team is Kemba.
 
Last edited:

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,234
I think that the poor shooting was mostly ball luck, at least in Brown's case. Both were getting fewer good looks, but even those were rimming out. Looked like JB in particular caught a mild case of Jeff Teague luck.
Completely agree on JB. I think he's had two games in a row with unlucky bounces. They looked like good shots, that just didn't happen to fall.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,745
The final point isn't mine; it's one everyone knows: building around Brown and Tatum isn't hard. You just need lineups with one lunchpail big who can D+screen, a ball-handler+shooter, and a ~37% wing shooter, and you've got a good offense and defense. I'd love to upgrade the wing, and I'm sure Danny would too, but Grant and Semi are fine in that role for the regular season. You can also play two small guards, depending on the matchup.
It's funny you say this because now that I think about it, I think Brad was doing exactly this. TT was the big that could play D and screen, and DT was the 38% 3P shooter - but in this case, he's hitting 46%.

Playing DT as a bigger wing that can add size but keep the same shooting as Grant or Semi makes sense in theory but the problem is for whatever reason, the Cs can't figure out the rotations on defense. I guess part of it is because DT isn't quick enough to play the wing defender on a regular basis.

Live and learn I'm sure.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,162
It's funny you say this because now that I think about it, I think Brad was doing exactly this. TT was the big that could play D and screen, and DT was the 38% 3P shooter - but in this case, he's hitting 46%.

Playing DT as a bigger wing that can add size but keep the same shooting as Grant or Semi makes sense in theory but the problem is for whatever reason, the Cs can't figure out the rotations on defense. I guess part of it is because DT isn't quick enough to play the wing defender on a regular basis.

Live and learn I'm sure.
Yeah I get the theoretical appeal of Theis at the 4, but as we’ve seen, he’s just not fast enough and everything feels clunky.