Americans Abroad: Summer Window 2019

Titans Bastard

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With the transfer window about to officially open and the 2018-19 season having officially ended a while ago, it's time to start a new thread. There's no use in posting a mega-list right now with so many players' futures up in the air. Here's what's happened so far:

Player Pos / Yr Old Lg / Club New Lg / Club Note / Rumor
Josh Cohen GK / 1992 Sacramento Republic (USL) Maccabi Haifa (ISR-1)
Mike Lansing GK / 1994 AaB Aalborg (DEN-1) AC Horsens (DEN-1)
Zack Steffen GK / 1995 Columbus Crew (MLS) Fortuna Düsseldorf (GER-1) on loan from Manchester City
Benji Machini GK / 1996 Burgos (ESP-3) Djurgården (SWE-1)
Jonathan Klinsmann GK / 1997 Hertha Berlin (GER-1) St. Gallen (SUI-1)
Desevio Payne RB / 1995 Excelsior (NED-1) FC Emmen (NED-1)
Ken Gipson RB / 1996 Sandhausen (GER-2) free agent
Stephen Payne RB / 1997 Varzim (POR-2) Portimonense (POR-1)
Niall Mason RB / 1997 Doncaster Rovers (ENG-3) [fired for criminal charges...] Peterborough United (ENG-3)
Matthew Olosunde RB / 1998 Manchester United (ENG-1) Rotherham United (ENG-3)
Corey Anton RB / 1999 Hoffenheim II (GER-4) Mainz II (GER-4)
Jonathan Esparza RB / 1999 Tijuana (MEX-1) Celaya (MEX-2) loan
Zico Bailey RB / 2000 Kalmar U21 (SWE-1) FC Helsingør (DEN-3)
Jonathan Spector CB / 1986 Hibernian (SCO-1) free agent
Michael Orozco CB / 1986 Lobos BUAP (MEX-1) Orange County SC (USL)
Omar Gonzalez CB / 1988 Atlas (MEX-1) Toronto FC (MLS)
Matt Miazga CB / 1995 Reading (ENG-2) Chelsea (ENG-1) loan return; new loan/sale?
Cameron Carter-Vickers CB / 1997 Swansea City (ENG-2) Tottenham Hotspur (ENG-1) loan return; new loan/sale?
Erik Palmer-Brown CB /1997 NAC Breda (NED-1) Manchester City (ENG-1) loan return; new loan/sale?
Jonathan Tomkinson CB / 2002 Solar (Dev Academy) Norwich City (ENG-1)
Jonathan Bornstein LB / 1984 Maccabi Netanya (ISR-1) Chicago Fire
Antonee Robinson LB / 1997 Everton (ENG-1) Wigan Athletic (ENG-2) previously on loan to Wigan
Stuart Ritchie LB / 2001 Groningen U19 (NED-1) Hannover U19 (GER-2)
Travian Sousa LB / 2001 Sacramento Republic (Dev Academy) Hamburg (GER-2)
Danny Williams CM / 1989 Huddersfield Town (ENG-1) free agent
Royal-Dominique Fennell CM / 1989 VfR Aalen (GER-3) free agent
Mael Corboz CM / 1994 Wattenscheid (GER-4) Go Ahead Eagles (NED-2)
Emerson Hyndman CM / 1996 Bournemouth (ENG-1) Atlanta United (MLS) loan
Kyle Scott CM / 1997 Chelsea reserves free agent
Kenny Saief AM / 1993 FC Cincinnati (MLS) Anderlecht (BEL-1) loan return
Josh Gatt Winger / 1991 Rheindorf Altach (AUT-1) free agent
Tyler Boyd Winger / 1994 Vitória Guimarães (POR-1) Beşiktaş (TUR-1) previously on loan to Ankaragücü (TUR-1)
Gboly Ariyibi Winger / 1995 Motherwell (SCO-1) Nottingham Forest (ENG-2) loan return
Ivan Luquetta Winger / 1996 Barranquilla (COL-2) Atlético Junior (COL-1)
Christian Pulisic Winger / 1998 Borussia Dortmund (GER-1) Chelsea (ENG-1) loan return
McKinze Gaines Winger / 1998 Darmstadt (GER-2) Sonnenhof Großaspach (GER-3) had been on loan with Zwickau (GER-3)
Isaiah Young Winger / 1998 Werder Bremen II (GER-1) Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (BEL-2) loan
Tim Weah Winger / 2000 Paris Saint-Germain (FRA-1) Lille (FRA-1)
Ulysses Llanez Winger / 2001 LA Galaxy academy Wolfsburg (GER-1)
Andrew Wooten Forward / 1989 Sandhausen (GER-2) Philadelphia Union (MLS)
Aron Jóhannsson Forward / 1990 Werder Bremen (GER-1) Hammarby (SWE-1)
Bobby Wood Forward / 1992 Hannover (GER-1) Hamburg (GER-2) loan return
Jason Romero Forward / 1995 Nyköpings (SWE-3) Umeaå (SWE-3)
Andrija Novakovich Forward / 1996 Fortuna Sittard (NED-1) Reading (ENG-2) loan return
Haji Wright Forward / 1998 Schalke (GER-1) VVV-Venlo (NED-1)
Jeremy Rafanello Forward / 2000 Penn State FC Helsingør (DEN-3)
Matthew Hoppe Forward / 2001 Barca academy AZ (Dev Academy) Schalke (GER-1)



Other notes/rumors:
  • Weston McKennie has just signed a new contract with Schalke, extending his deal from 2022 to 2024.
  • There are a number of players at big clubs who will surely be loaned out or sold: Matt Miazga, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Erik Palmer-Brown.
  • Tyler Boyd has a lot of rumored destinations, particularly Besiktas and Inter Miami, but whatever the case it seems quite likely that he won't return to Vitória Guimarães next year.
  • Emerson Hyndman is rumored to be in contract negotiations with Atlanta United
  • Winger Emmanuel Sabbi seems likely to be sold by Hobro, perhaps to a bigger club in Denmark like Brøndby, perhaps to a slightly bigger league like Belgium.
 
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Titans Bastard

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Updated European competition involvement info:

*Likely to be sold or loaned
**Youth player who could break out and play but probably won't

Champions League
First Qualifying Round
Dilly Duka (Partizani Tirana) vs. Qarabağ

Second Qualifying Round
Aaron Schoenfeld (Maccabi Tel Aviv) vs. Astana/CFR Cluj
**Richie Ledezma (PSV Eindhoven) vs. Basel

Third Qualifying Round
Ethan Horvath (Club Brugge)
**Sergino Dest (Ajax)

Group Stage
Christian Pulisic (Chelsea)
Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig)
Timothy Weah (Lille)
*Matt Miazga (Chelsea)
*Zack Steffen (Man City)
*Erik Palmer-Brown (Man City)
*Cameron Carter-Vickers (Tottenham Hotspur)
**Chris Richards (Bayern Munich)
^Jesse Marsch (Red Bull Salzburg) [manager]

Europa League
First Qualifying Round
Romain Gall (Malmö) vs. Ballymena United / NSÍ Runavík
Matt Polster (Rangers) vs. Prishtina / St Joseph's
Macario Hing-Glover (Spartak Trnava) vs. Radnik Bijeljina
Eric McWoods (Narva Trans) vs. Budućnost Podgorica

Second Qualifying Round
Timothy Chandler (Eintracht Frankfurt) vs. Flora Tallinn / Radnički Niš
*Tyler Boyd (Vitória de Guimarães) vs. Jeunesse Esch / Tobol

Group Stage
Fabian Johnson (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
John Brooks (Wolfsburg)
Jordan Siebatcheu (Rennes)
**Ulysses Llanez (Wolfsburg)
**Michael Edwards (Wolfsburg)
 

67YAZ

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Given how he’s performed on loan in Scotland, I’m sure Hyndman could have found a contract there. But he’s still only 23. He’s had good coaching, now he needs minutes in the pitch to get his development restarted.
 

Titans Bastard

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Given how he’s performed on loan in Scotland, I’m sure Hyndman could have found a contract there. But he’s still only 23. He’s had good coaching, now he needs minutes in the pitch to get his development restarted.
Shoutout to Jurgen Klinsmann on this one. He told Hyndman that he wasn't going to get USMNT chances as long as he was in the Championship, so Hyndman decided to play out his contract. After he declined to sign an extension, Fulham dropped him from their 18, and moved on a free to an EPL club that didn't much care about him because he was just a cheap flyer.

You can only go to clubs who offer you contracts, but I wonder what the alternate universe where Hyndman signs in Belgium or the Netherlands looks like.

Anyway, Hyndman's first loan stint at Rangers went much better than his second loan stint at Hibernian. I'm sure someone in Scotland would have signed him, but MLS is a significantly stronger league on the whole at this point. I can't imagine the pay is very good in Scotland either, outside of the Old Firm.
 

Titans Bastard

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Excited for Boyd at Besiktas
It's not over 'til it's over. No done deal yet, and Turkish transfer drama is a total soap opera.



Here's Heath Pearce at a press conference announcing his signing for Bursaspor in 2009. The next day, the transfer was invalidated because the paperwork didn't go through before the transfer window deadline.
 

Titans Bastard

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Steven Goff
@SoccerInsider


As Chinese league's transfer window opens, Jiangsu Suning FC making a transfer offer of ~$10m to @TorontoFC for #usmnt striker @JozyAltidore. Contract would pay him ~$25m for 3 years. Altidore, 29, signed extension with TFC in Feb through '22 season. This year, he'll make $6.3m.


3:22am · 1 Jul 2019

Steven Goff
@SoccerInsider


Nice pay raise but seems unlikely Altidore would want to go. Has seems to like living in Toronto, is making good money and just got engaged to tennis star @SloaneStephens. #mls #tfc


3:24am · 1 Jul 2019
 

Jimy Hendrix

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A long journey from New York to the New York Stadium.

Also maybe the apotheosis of the deep generosity with which transfer news refers to any capped player as an international. It's technically correct, but jeez.
 

Titans Bastard

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Winger McKinze Gaines '98 has moved from Darmstadt to Sonnenhof Großaspach in the German 3.Liga.

https://www.sg94.de/aktuelles/leseansicht/news/orrin-mckinze-gaines-ii-kommt-aus-darmstadt-philipp-hercher-wechselt-nach-kaiserslautern/
He had solid season, stats-wise, in the U19 Bundesliga for Wolfsburg several years ago, but after the season he was sold to Darmstadt for a small fee. He never got any traction in the 2.Bundesliga and had a not-particularly-thrilling loan to Zwickau in the 3.Liga last year. By reputation, he's a speed merchant; his lack of club progression suggests there may not be all that much more to his game.
 

Titans Bastard

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22 year old right back / right winger Stephen Payne has moved from Varzim (2nd division) to Portimonense (top division) in Portugal.
 

Titans Bastard

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Haji Wright has signed for VVV-Venlo in the Eredivisie.

https://twitter.com/VVVVenlo/status/1149627036777844737
He wasn't in Schalke's plans, so I'm glad he found an exit this summer rather than play for their reserve team in the fourth division. The Eredivisie is a nice landing spot for a player with some tactical deficiencies; hopefully he can really make strides in shoring up his weaknesses. I think Wright also has a rep for being a but lackadaisical and low work-rate, so improving that part is basically on him.

It's just a 1 year contract with a 1 year option, so VVV-Venlo isn't going all-in just yet.
 

Titans Bastard

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More moves:

  • For those who like not-gonna-happen dual nationals, Jeremy Toljan has gone on loan from Dortmund to Sassuolo

  • Winger Isaiah Young '98 has gone on loan from Werder Bremen II to Saint-Gilloise in the Belgian second division.

  • LB Stuart Ritchie '01 moved from Groningen U19 to Hannover U19

  • An American signed for FC Helsingør in Denmark, a club that was recently purchased by an American who says he wants to turn it into a gateway to Europe for young American players. They were just relegated to the third tier, so good luck getting any decent transfer fees for players in that league. Anyway, they did sign a semi-interesting prospect, forward Jeremy Rafanello '00. He's a Union academy prospect who would have been a sophomore at Penn State. He played a lot as a freshman, but only scored three goals, and he's the same age as Sargent and Soto, just to put things in perspective.
 

Titans Bastard

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Ajax is taking repeated looks at Sergino Dest at left back this preseason. If he can hack it, it seems that there's an easier pathway to playing time that way.

My understanding is that the backup role to Nicolas Tagliafico at LB is up for grabs, whereas there are three RBs in Dest's way.
 

OCST

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My dreams of seeing more Yanks soaking in the roars of the Goodison crowd have taken a hit, now that Everton have sold Antonee Robinson to Wigan, where he spent last season on loan:

https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com/2019/7/13/20692847/everton-transfer-rumours-antonee-robinson-wigan-athletic-loan-permanent-usmnt-squad-news-latest
In truth, he had little hope of getting into the side, with Lucas Digne having shown himself among the elite LBs in the PL, and Leighton Baines signing a new one-year deal as his still very capable backup.

And, frankly, on what I've seen of him with the USMNT, I think he may not be a PL-class player.
 

Titans Bastard

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My dreams of seeing more Yanks soaking in the roars of the Goodison crowd have taken a hit, now that Everton have sold Antonee Robinson to Wigan, where he spent last season on loan:

https://royalbluemersey.sbnation.com/2019/7/13/20692847/everton-transfer-rumours-antonee-robinson-wigan-athletic-loan-permanent-usmnt-squad-news-latest
In truth, he had little hope of getting into the side, with Lucas Digne having shown himself among the elite LBs in the PL, and Leighton Baines signing a new one-year deal as his still very capable backup.

And, frankly, on what I've seen of him with the USMNT, I think he may not be a PL-class player.
This is now official. Three years and an undisclosed fee. I suspect he'll be a Championship lifer, but we'll see. It's all well and good to be able to maraud forward, but defenders still need to defend and Robinson is nowhere near EPL quality in that department.

https://www.wiganathletic.com/news/2019/july/return-of-the-jedi--wigan-athletic-complete-signing-of-usmnt-international-antonee-robinson-from-everton/
 

Jimy Hendrix

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We're hoping for better, but we're not yet at the point where "Championship lifer" and "ten-year USMNT left-back" would be mutually exclusive, so I hope he becomes the best goddamn Championship lifer he can be.
 

Titans Bastard

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Ajax is taking repeated looks at Sergino Dest at left back this preseason. If he can hack it, it seems that there's an easier pathway to playing time that way.

My understanding is that the backup role to Nicolas Tagliafico at LB is up for grabs, whereas there are three RBs in Dest's way.
One of the three RBs was just sold.

Ajax’s manager said some nice things about Dest, too.
 

Titans Bastard

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Who remembers Luis Gil?

He just signed for Viktoria Žižkov in the Czech second division.
 

Titans Bastard

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There have been transfer rumors around the Hannover 96 duo of Sebastian Soto and Chris Gloster. Both are out of contract after this coming season. Right now, it seems like Soto is more likely to stay, and may sign a new contract. He's been heavily involved in in preseason and already made his debut in the Bundesliga last year. Hopefully relegation brings more opportunities.

On the other hand, Gloster has been the subject of PSV rumors and Carlisle is reporting that PSV improved their offer. Gloster conspicuously was not involved in a recent friendly.

--

There have been some solid reports that an EPL club is interested in Aaron Long. I can't see him leaving this summer, though.

--

27 year old GK Josh Cohen was sold from Sacramento Republic to Maccabi Haifa. Not too often you see a USL player sold abroad. He's going to one of the biggest clubs in Israel, too.

--

Haven't seen @Schnerres around lately, but there was a German-American from his hometown, Joshua Smith, who played NCAA soccer and had a brief stint with the Revs. After a gig in the German lower divisions, he's now with Finn Harps in the League of Ireland.

--

There are some rumors that Reggie Cannon has interest from Anderlecht.

--

Speaking of Anderlecht, it turns out that Philippe Sandler, a '97 CB on loan from Man City, has an American mother. Sandler has played in Dutch youth teams in official games, so he'd have to file a one-time switch.
 

Titans Bastard

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Giles Phillips has gone on loan from QPR to Wycombe in League One. He's a '97 center back who has played with QPR's youth teams for a couple of seasons.
 

Titans Bastard

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Miazga back to Reading on a season long loan.
I would have liked him to move up slightly from Reading, but c'est la vie in the loan army. At least he's going to a place where he's known and valued.
 

Titans Bastard

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Shaq Moore has moved from Levante to Tenerife in the Spanish second division.

Nice location.
 

rguilmar

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Hopefully this stint in La Segunda goes better than his last, starting with actually getting paid.

Tenerife will be a great place to live. Team struggled though last season.
 

Titans Bastard

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Sergino Dest is starting at left back for Ajax against PSV in the Dutch Super Cup!
 

dirtynine

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I badly want him to succeed for club and country, if only so we can channel Tina Turner and sing “You’re Sergino Dest! Better than all the rest!”
 

Titans Bastard

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Tyler Adams still isn't healthy, which is annoying. His adductor injury recovery is moving slowly and has had some setbacks. Hopefully he's back soon; it's clear now that RB Leipzig rushed him back for the DFB Pokal final, which was a mistake.

Geoff Cameron has moved to QPR permanently. He had been on loan there from Stoke last season.

Chris Gloster & Sebastian Soto started the 2.Bundesliga season on the bench for Hannover. H96 did play a man down later on, which might have made it hard to throw Soto out there. Also, the guy who got sent off was their starting left back, so perhaps Gloster will make his first team debut next week.

Terrence Boyd left Toronto to sign with German 3. Liga club Hallescher FC. He was once in the fringe area between Bundesliga and 2.Bundesliga, but post-injury it's clear he's below 2.BL/MLS level. It's a shame, as he's a very likable player.

Fortuna Düsseldorf announced that Michael Rensing is out for a while with a shoulder injury, which means that Zack Steffen has no real competition at GK at the moment. He may well have won the starting spot anyway, but I haven't been following their preseason closely.

Man City loan army CB Erik Palmer-Brown is close to a loan to Austria Wien. He's been training with them and their club officials have commented on the potential transfer.

Gio Reyna has continued to play with Dortmund's first team during preseason even after the US tour. He will definitely start with their U19 team, but he's been holding his own in preseason and the club seems to really like his potential beyond just the "say a generic nice thing about a prospect" platitudes.

English/Irish/American central midfielder Kyle Scott has signed with Newcastle after many years with Chelsea's academy. He had a ho-hum loan in the Dutch second division last year that ended early. I'm kind of surprised to see him land at an EPL club instead of in League One, but on the other hand it's likely he'll just be with the U21 team.
 

Joe D Reid

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English/Irish/American central midfielder Kyle Scott has signed with Newcastle after many years with Chelsea's academy. He had a ho-hum loan in the Dutch second division last year that ended early. I'm kind of surprised to see him land at an EPL club instead of in League One, but on the other hand it's likely he'll just be with the U21 team.
Just wait a couple of seasons.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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I'm going to need to borrow the office whiteboard and write

"Not every young Ajax player becomes a superstar"

50 times on it so I don't get my hopes up too much.

Still, the more players we have at the world's greatest conveyor belts of talent, the better.
 

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Two goals and a drawn penalty in the first half for Pulisic vs RB Salzburg.
The two goals were some pretty monster effort and classy finishes. He got great service, but both of them were him taking on 2 defenders plus the goalie.

And that's against a Champions League Group Stage team - sure, it might not have been their absolute-best starting lineup, but neither was Chelsea's, and either way it's not a bunch of scrubs out there.

I thought the 60M Euros transfer fee was maybe 1/2 for PR and marketing value, and 1/2 footballing value, but maybe I've underestimated his readiness for world-class competition. Sure hope so!

edit: the penalty draw was a slightly soft call.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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Don't know how the NBCS ratings stack up club by club but I imagine Chelsea is line for a serious boost as long as CP is a regular.
 

dirtynine

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The finishes were both great but the first touch / body control on that long pass (1st goal) was really encouraging.
 

Titans Bastard

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Vancouver signed their academy GK Chituru Odunze '02and sold him to Leicester City. Odunze is the backup goalkeeper for the US U17 team, behind Damian Las. Odunze is a real monster: he is 16 years old and 6'7". He has UK citizenship, which makes a move to England possible.

Attacking midfielder Roberto Hategan '01 has signed with Nürnberg, where he'll play with their U19 squad. He came through the Sacramento Republic academy and signed a pro deal with them a few years ago. They let him go for free.

Attacking midfielder Joel Sonora '96 has gone on loan from Talleres de Cordoba to Arsenal de Sarandi in Argentina. A one-time US U20 who spent time in the systems of Boca Juniors and Stuttgart. Unlikely to be an NT prospect at this point.
 

Titans Bastard

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Reports out of Germany suggest that Josh Sargent may have won a starting role at Werder out of preseason camp. That's huge if true, of course, given the Zardesian challenges with the USMNT — and Sargent's struggles adjusting to the first team in limited minutes last year.

Yosef Samuel '97 has signed with Hobro IK. He's an attacking midfielder who has passed through the USL teams of Philadelphia and Atlanta without a tremendous amount of success. Apparently that's good enough to get a deal with a small Danish Superliga club, though.


Both the CL and EL have moved into the third qualifying round, plus there's been some transfer activity.

*Likely to be sold or loaned
**Youth player who could break out and play but probably won't

Champions League
Third Qualifying Round
Ethan Horvath (Club Brugge) vs. Dynamo Kyiv
Sergino Dest (Ajax) vs. PAOK
**Alex Mendez (Ajax) vs. PAOK

Group Stage
Christian Pulisic (Chelsea)
Tyler Adams (RB Leipzig)
Timothy Weah (Lille)
*Erik Palmer-Brown (Man City) [rumored to be heading to Austria Wien, who play Apollon Limassol in the Europa League qualifiers)
*Cameron Carter-Vickers (Tottenham Hotspur)
**Chris Richards (Bayern Munich)
**Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund)
^Jesse Marsch (Red Bull Salzburg) [manager]

Europa League
Third Qualifying Round
Aaron Schoenfeld (Maccabi Tel Aviv) vs. Sūduva
Romain Gall (Malmö) vs. Zrinjski Mostar [rumored to be heading on loan to Vålerenga]
Matt Polster (Rangers) vs. Midtjylland
Timothy Chandler (Eintracht Frankfurt) vs. Vaduz
**Richie Ledezma (PSV Eindhoven) vs. Haugesund

Group Stage
Fabian Johnson (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
John Brooks (Wolfsburg)
Jordan Siebatcheu (Rennes)
Tyler Boyd (Besiktas)
**Ulysses Llanez (Wolfsburg)
**Michael Edwards (Wolfsburg)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I wouldn’t be shocked to see Folarin Balogun making the bench for a couple Europa League group stage matches this fall for Arsenal. He is essentially fourth on the club’s CF depth chart and should be starting most matches for the reserve team now that Eddie Nketiah is firmly ensconced in the first team.

I realize he hasn’t committed to a country yet. But I assume that if he does pick the US he’d be one of the top striking prospects in the youth ranks. He had an insane scoring record last year at U18 club level.
 

Titans Bastard

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Balogun has played in official games for England at the youth level so he will need to file a one time switch. That’s totally conceivable at some point, but usually guys like this need time to give up the dream and move to plan B.

Definitely an interesting one to follow though.
 

InstaFace

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Balogun has played in official games for England at the youth level so he will need to file a one time switch. That’s totally conceivable at some point, but usually guys like this need time to give up the dream and move to plan B.

Definitely an interesting one to follow though.
Wasn't he playing for our U18s last year? Seems more proximate than the category of "hey this guy has dual citizenship, it could totally happen". That said, he is verbally noncommittal.

More relevantly, I can't find anything that suggests we've pursued him.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Balogun has played in official games for England at the youth level so he will need to file a one time switch. That’s totally conceivable at some point, but usually guys like this need time to give up the dream and move to plan B.

Definitely an interesting one to follow though.
Wasn't he playing for our U18s last year? Seems more proximate than the category of "hey this guy has dual citizenship, it could totally happen". That said, he is verbally noncommittal.

More relevantly, I can't find anything that suggests we've pursued him.
Yeah, he played for the US U-18s last August I believe.

I have no clue what Balogun is thinking but he isn't a mega-hyped prospect and England is absolutely loaded with young attacking talent in the 18-22 age bracket so I think there is a genuine chance that he realizes in the next year or two that getting into the senior national team is going to be extremely difficult. But he is also eligible for Nigeria so there is no guarantee that he plays for the US even if he gives up the dream.
 

InstaFace

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Pittsburgh, PA
Can you find anything that suggests we pursued anyone?
A fair question. I usually hear about it secondhand, like Klinsmann with Green or Fabian Johnson or John Brooks, in retrospect and in aggregate. I'm new to this, relatively speaking - i dont have a feel for what's typical or atypical or what's reported-on vs never discussed in public.

The fact is that the programs which we aspire to be like don't have this problem because they're always everyone's first choice. So the world of comparables is small.