Allen Craig

Toe Nash · Jul 31, 2014

Fangraphs had a piece a few weeks ago. He's stopped going to left, perhaps because he's not catching up to balls as he once did (pitchers are throwing him more hard stuff):

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/allen-craig-who-once-knew-left-field/

The good news is that if he CAN begin pulling balls in the air again, that's obviously good for his new home park. The bad news is that he just turned 30.

ifmanis5 · Jul 31, 2014

We know he's good at stepping on WMB and getting away with it. :colbert:

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jul 31, 2014

Fangraphs has posted a couple good pieces recently about Craig's struggles this year. One part of the story is that pitchers are killing him inside, especially with hard pitches. Another (related) part of the story is that Craig's pull power has completely disappeared - he's hitting lots more groundballs and the flyballs he hits are mainly to the opposite field. Put those pieces together and you have a guy who can't hurt teams in the air when pitched inside and who is consequently being pounded inside.

The broader question is why this is happening and how its related to his swing and his injuries. I hope the front office has an answer, or at least a pretty good theory.

j44thor · Jul 31, 2014

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Fangraphs has posted a couple good pieces recently about Craig's struggles this year. One part of the story is that pitchers are killing him inside, especially with hard pitches. Another (related) part of the story is that Craig's pull power has completely disappeared - he's hitting lots more groundballs and the flyballs he hits are mainly to the opposite field. Put those pieces together and you have a guy who can't hurt teams in the air when pitched inside and who is consequently being pounded inside.

The broader question is why this is happening and how its related to his swing and his injuries. I hope the front office has an answer, or at least a pretty good theory.

Of course this could also be what happens to a lot of good but not great hitters as they get close to and over 30. They fall off a cliff.
Lester trade was interesting.

I think we will look back on this trade in 12 months and say Ben got fleeced. We gave up a cost controlled asset for a bad contract.

Sprowl · Aug 1, 2014

I posted this in the wrong thread, but it's probably relevant here: Craig was not born to hit at Fenway. His power is to all fields, when he gets the ball in the air, but he has been pounding the ball into the ground at increasing rates.

Sprowl said:
Just for good measure, here are Craig's Busch Stadium spray charts from 2012 and 2013 superimposed on Fenway:

alwyn96 · Aug 1, 2014

Isn't a 28% line drive rate like, awesome? It seems like that being out of line with major league norms would be a good thing. Like hitting 40 HR or striking out 200 guys. That would be evidence of being better than major league norms. Sure, it might be a fluky good season, but it's not like a high BABIP driven by seeing-eye grounders or something, where the assumption is that that's driven by luck. Presumably hitting line drives is an actual skill.

dwhogan · Aug 1, 2014

j44thor said:
Of course this could also be what happens to a lot of good but not great hitters as they get close to and over 30. They fall off a cliff.
Lester trade was interesting.

I think we will look back on this trade in 12 months and say Ben got fleeced. We gave up a cost controlled asset for a bad contract.

No way we can really say that. Lackey had made it clear that he was uninterested in pitching for 500k next year and negotiations could have had numerous unintended consequences (in the clubhouse and on fan perception/media response [think chicken and beer and how much everyone hated that Lackey was around]). For the sake of the trade, I honestly think you have to consider that Lackey wasn't coming back next year OR would be back but not as a cost-controlled asset, but as a 36y/o with a new bloated contract extension.

Sure, if you'd held on to him and somehow got him through 2015 without extending him but able to keep him happy, then this trade may not have the same feel to it. I just don't see that happening to be honest.

pedroia'sboys · Aug 1, 2014

The lackey trade was the worst trade of the day.Craig is an aging player who is a butcher in the field. The first base position and DH are already filled. They better figure out a way to get Mookie in the lineup everyday next year. If this in any way blocks him, the trade is a complete failure. Unless they see something in Kelly that we don't. I would have rather taken the best offer of prospects.

MakMan44 · Aug 1, 2014

Mookie isn't even 22 yet, blocking him isn't going to destroy his career.

ivanvamp · Aug 1, 2014

Craig has played 232 games in the outfield in his career and has made exactly zero errors over 351 chances.

He doesn't have great range, but you can't be classified as a "butcher" and yet never make an error out there.

Dwight Evans he is not? A "butcher"? Eh….no.

O Captain! My Captain! · Aug 1, 2014

If you have to find an explanation for why he's not a .300 hitter for each of three different years, you're probably grasping at straws. It's extremely unlucky he got lucky for three years straight. Of course, this doesn't help if his 2014 is a new baseline of performance.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Aug 1, 2014

O Captain! My Captain! said:
If you have to find an explanation for why he's not a .300 hitter for each of three different years, you're probably grasping at straws. It's extremely unlucky he got lucky for three years straight. Of course, this doesn't help if his 2014 is a new baseline of performance.

Maybe the issue is that because Craig is a groundball heavy hitter (career approximately 46%), as this site - http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bird-bytes-a-look-at-allen-craig-s-reemergence/article_e126409c-5dde-5ad7-88da-f133a63415a9.html - suggests, he's going to be subjects to the whims and follies of BABIP. When his BABIP is low (say .200, as it was in the first part of the year), he's below average. When it's higher (say .380, as it was in May of last year), he turns into a .313/.382/.513 guy.

Of course, BABIP may be mostly luck but It also could have something to do with patience at the plate and taking more walks (aka swinging at better pitches).

pedroia'sboys · Aug 1, 2014

MakMan44 said:
Mookie isn't even 22 yet, blocking him isn't going to destroy his career.

You're right, and a injury will surely pop it at some point next season. I just hate starting him at triple a, when he's clearly ready for the next level.

soxfan121 · Aug 1, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Craig has played 232 games in the outfield in his career and has made exactly zero errors over 351 chances.

He doesn't have great range, but you can't be classified as a "butcher" and yet never make an error out there.

Dwight Evans he is not? A "butcher"? Eh….no.

Yeah, I almost chimed on in this in the other thread where Craig was being derided for being able to "stand there and catch the ball". Obviously, those people never saw Lonnie Smith play the OF. Catching the ball is underrated.

Buzzkill Pauley · Aug 1, 2014

O Captain! My Captain! said:
If you have to find an explanation for why he's not a .300 hitter for each of three different years, you're probably grasping at straws. It's extremely unlucky he got lucky for three years straight. Of course, this doesn't help if his 2014 is a new baseline of performance.

The only reason to assume 2014 is Craig's new baseline of performance is if his foot injury is untreatable.

I agree with Poutine -- get the guy to MGH, repair whatever got torn in there last September, and forget about showcasing him in 2014's remaining garbage-time.

Pain and unsteadiness in the stride foot is always going to mess up a hitter's swing.

chawson · Aug 1, 2014

Ability to catch the ball is only slightly more requisite for baseball players than standing upright, or having hands.

The concern is his -55.7 UZR/150 in LF posted this year. He doesn't move well.

Does seem like a decent defensive first baseman, though.

SoxScout · Aug 1, 2014

chawson said:
Ability to catch the ball is only slightly more requisite for baseball players than standing upright, or having hands.

The concern is his -55.7 UZR/150 in LF posted this year. He doesn't move well.

Does seem like a decent defensive first baseman, though.

That is in 30 innings. In 586 innings in RF he is at +2.5 UZR with 1 defensive run saved.

The Gray Eagle · Aug 1, 2014

Also, Fielding Bible has those 30 innings in LF as exactly average. So the UZR number there is not just meaningless, it's ultra double meaningless and makes everyone who even thinks about it stupider.

FB has him at +1 in 586 innings in RF this season. 0 last year, -3 the year before in limited innings both years. That is not bad at all, considering he has had a foot injury the past two years, and will be moving to a tiny LF for his home games.

twibnotes · Aug 1, 2014

SoxScout said:
That is in 30 innings. In 586 innings in RF he is at +2.5 UZR with 1 defensive run saved.

Hopefully that is an indication that the foot really has been an issue of late (since he was clearly a guy who could move decently for a chunk of his career; drafted as a SS actually)

It's really all about the injury IMO. If it's the reason for his struggles and can be addressed with treatment/rest, this deal looks so much better.

Savin Hillbilly · Aug 1, 2014

The Gray Eagle said:
Also, Fielding Bible has those 30 innings in LF as exactly average. So the UZR number there is not just meaningless, it's ultra double meaningless and makes everyone who even thinks about it stupider.

FG should implement some kind of conditional styling where the fielding numbers get more and more faint as the sample diminishes, until below a certain sample size they disappear entirely. Full opacity at, say, >5000 innings, invisible at <100.

Toe Nash · Aug 1, 2014

twibnotes said:
It's really all about the injury IMO. If it's the reason for his struggles and can be addressed with treatment/rest, this deal looks so much better.

I'm a bit concerned about his numbers before the injury.

His ISO goes from .240 in 2011 to .215 in 2012, then .142, then .109 this year. His GB:FB rate has been steadily increasing for years, from 1.18 in 2011, then 1.32, 1.60 and 2.32 this year. His overall numbers looked good last year but he had a 26.9 LD%, out of line with the rest of his career, and a .368 BABIP. That sort of masks his performance last year and makes it look like a steep decline from 2013-14, which could be blamed on the injury, but it really seems like a steady drop as he gets to age 30 and beyond.

It seems from where I'm standing that while health should bring some rebound, I'm not sure he'll ever reach his 2011-12 level again. That may still be fine, especially if he doesn't lose his pull power.

MakMan44 · Aug 1, 2014

He was hurt last year, and this year. If he can't use his lower half to generate power, it would go a long to explaining his ISO decline over the last couple seasons. If you check his monthly splits in 2013, his ISO was .183 in May and .198 in June. After that, he fell off a cliff. I wouldn't expect him to crack .200 next season if he's fully healthy, but it wouldn't shock me either.

alwyn96 · Aug 1, 2014

Toe Nash said:
I'm a bit concerned about his numbers before the injury.

His ISO goes from .240 in 2011 to .215 in 2012, then .142, then .109 this year. His GB:FB rate has been steadily increasing for years, from 1.18 in 2011, then 1.32, 1.60 and 2.32 this year. His overall numbers looked good last year but he had a 26.9 LD%, out of line with the rest of his career, and a .368 BABIP. That sort of masks his performance last year and makes it look like a steep decline from 2013-14, which could be blamed on the injury, but it really seems like a steady drop as he gets to age 30 and beyond.

It seems from where I'm standing that while health should bring some rebound, I'm not sure he'll ever reach his 2011-12 level again. That may still be fine, especially if he doesn't lose his pull power.

I don't understand how a great LD% "masks his performance." It is his performance! He had a good BABIP because he was hitting a ton of line drives, which turn into hits at a higher rate than other types of batted balls. Calling a good season evidence of decline doesn't really make sense to me.

It's really all about whether he can recover from this current injury or not. I think you have to ignore his actual performance and the more proximal explanation of his current injury to see him as on some sort of slow decline (other than the slow decline towards death that we are all on). Players have lots of natural variation in their performances.

YTF · Aug 1, 2014

pedroia'sboys said:
You're right, and a injury will surely pop it at some point next season. I just hate starting him at triple a, when he's clearly ready for the next level.

A converted middle infielder with 39 MiL and 10 MLB games in the outfield. Lets get the other youngsters on this team comfortable, situated AND evaluated before we toss another one into the mix. He'll get some time in Sept.

Why Not Grebeck? · Aug 1, 2014

Maybe he's just been drawing Frog 8 all season.

And yes, this post is a flimsy excuse to post my favorite Red Sox related thing I've read anywhere this season.

jackno · Aug 1, 2014

Why Not Grebeck? said:
Maybe he's just been drawing Frog 8 all season.

And yes, this post is a flimsy excuse to post my favorite Red Sox related thing I've read anywhere this season.

I wish I had seen it before...That was great.

soxhop411 · Aug 1, 2014

Matt Huegel ‏@MattHuegelSP 5m
Hadn't realized how many positions Allen Craig has played in career: 1B-217gms, RF-163, LF-74, CF-5, 3B-4, 2B-9.

https://twitter.com/MattHuegelSP/status/495309001304064001

Seems like both Holt and Craig can give other players a breather if they need it

Sprowl · Aug 1, 2014

soxhop411 said:
Matt Huegel ‏@MattHuegelSP 5m
Hadn't realized how many positions Allen Craig has played in career: 1B-217gms, RF-163, LF-74, CF-5, 3B-4, 2B-9.

https://twitter.com/MattHuegelSP/status/495309001304064001

Seems like both Holt and Craig can give other players a breather if they need it

I don't think we'll want Craig anywhere near 2B, 3B, or Fenway's RF unless his foot is in much better shape than his 2014 batting performance suggests. He's a future DH, and that future is coming right quick.

Reverend · Aug 1, 2014

bRef says that his nickname is "The Wrench." Can we get verification on that? Do people actually call him that?

I could totally get behind that.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Aug 1, 2014

Reverend said:
bRef says that his nickname is "The Wrench." Can we get verification on that? Do people actually call him that?

I could totally get behind that.

Like "The Allen Wrench"?

I'm down.

Snodgrass'Muff · Aug 1, 2014

Why Not Grebeck? said:
Maybe he's just been drawing Frog 8 all season.

And yes, this post is a flimsy excuse to post my favorite Red Sox related thing I've read anywhere this season.

We need to adopt Frog 8 as a term for a slump.

Spectacular.

Why Not Grebeck? · Aug 1, 2014

Yeah, I wasn't sure where to put it where more of the board could see it - if someone else wants to, that'd be great.

JMDurron · Aug 1, 2014

Craig just appeared to aggravate his foot injury again in tonight's game. Hopefully the team shuts him down for a while to let him get healthy for 2015. The "too many outfielders" problem seems to be irrelevant for the time being.

Byrdbrain · Aug 1, 2014

I didn't see what you saw and they just showed him running in LF and he moved about as well as you would expect him to. No signs of a limp.

Yaz4Ever · Aug 1, 2014

Think he might've thought Ross was Craig.

Yaz4Ever · Aug 1, 2014

Not liking how Craig hit the bag on that dp, though. And he's been replaced in the field.

Buzzkill Pauley · Aug 1, 2014

Yaz4Ever said:
Not liking how Craig hit the bag on that dp, though. And he's been replaced in the field.

Defensive replacement.

Though, I also got the feeling his foot isn't 100%.

It's probably in the 75-80% range, as opposed to Ross. Who's looking at 35-40% after tonight.

Rasputin · Aug 1, 2014

Why Not Grebeck? said:
Maybe he's just been drawing Frog 8 all season.

And yes, this post is a flimsy excuse to post my favorite Red Sox related thing I've read anywhere this season.

Jesus this was phenomenal.

Dogman · Aug 1, 2014

Holy crap that Frog 8 thing was pretty damn outstanding.

CGSO · Aug 2, 2014

Buzzkill Pauley said:
Defensive replacement.

Though, I also got the feeling his foot isn't 100%.

It's probably in the 75-80% range, as opposed to Ross. Who's looking at 35-40% after tonight.

I'd be surprised and don't expect it to happen, but if it is 75-80%, to me it makes sense to rest him for the last 2 months of the season and let him come back 100% healthy next year.

Darnell's Son · Aug 2, 2014

CGSO said:
I'd be surprised and don't expect it to happen, but if it is 75-80%, to me it makes sense to rest him for the last 2 months of the season and let him come back 100% healthy next year.

Can we cut this out? CGSO, I'm not picking on you, but this is the umpteenth time I've seen someone suggest sitting Craig because he's too hurt to play. Let's trust the medical staff(and before you attack the Sox' medical staff, the Cards didn't sit him for health reasons either). Sitting Craig for the rest of the year is the new "We got Cespedes to get Stanton." Until a doctor says he needs rest let's just drop this idea.

reggiecleveland · Aug 2, 2014

People are saying he is hurt because they want to believe he is better than the player he has been this year. It is wishful thinking

SouthernBoSox · Aug 2, 2014

reggiecleveland said:
People are saying he is hurt because they want to believe he is better than the player he has been this year. It is wishful thinking

Do you think Pedroia is hurt? Because I do. And I think Craig is a similar case.

People don't go from being really good hitters to really bad hitters without some sort of causation.

JMDurron · Aug 2, 2014

Yaz4Ever said:
Think he might've thought Ross was Craig.

Yeah, I saw the replay of the 6th inning groundout and heard a mention of the foot injury and thought it was Craig instead of Ross. That's what I get for only partially paying attention to the games lately.

Buzzkill Pauley · Aug 2, 2014

reggiecleveland said:
People are saying he is hurt because they want to believe he is better than the player he has been this year. It is wishful thinking

I've said he's been playing hurt because of a real DL-worthy foot injury that was severe enough to keep him out from September 4 until the World Series started, and then aggravated on October 27th.

That's a full month of offseason rest missed, on top of a re-injury that negated the 6 weeks healing he already he already got while the Cards, Pirates, and Reds were in a relatively tight race for the postseason. So yeah, maybe it's wishful thinking that he's not 100%, or maybe it's recognition that some players will choose to minimize their injuries as being "dinged up" and play hurt.

C4CRVT · Aug 2, 2014

I've read the FG article linked above and seen the batted ball data. Big Papi should serve as an inspiration to this guy given his struggles at age 33 (seemed to loose his bat speed) and eventually came around to regain his form.

Let's hope it is some sort of injury that he can recover from and go back to OPS+ in the 130-150 range.

jscola85 · Aug 2, 2014

I just have a really hard time believing a guy goes from being one of the best contact and pull hitters in the NL and into a tomato can overnight. I know it does happen from time to time, but having it occur right when an injury crops up makes it seem like this is not just a guy who hit the wall. Bats don't slow overnight that badly without some sort of explanation.

El Guapo9 · Aug 2, 2014

On the NESN broadcast tonight, Don said that Craig re-injured his foot in the game last night. No elaboration was given.

Harry Hooper · Aug 2, 2014

El Guapo9 said:
On the NESN broadcast tonight, Don said that Craig re-injured his foot in the game last night. No elaboration was given.

Talk about good news, bad news. His poor performance may be health-related, but there's a lot of $ committed to a guy who may never get healthy.

Edit: clarity

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2010	25	STL	NL	44	124	114	12	28	7	0	4	18	0	1	9	26	0.246	0.298	0.412	0.711	92	47	1	0	0	1	1	Sep-54
2011	26	STL	NL	75	219	200	33	63	15	0	11	40	5	0	15	40	0.315	0.362	0.555	0.917	151	111	7	1	1	2	0	79/4835
2012	27	STL	NL	119	514	469	76	144	35	0	22	92	2	1	37	89	0.307	0.354	0.522	0.876	137	245	15	1	0	7	1	39/7D	MVP-19
2013 ★	28	STL	NL	134	563	508	71	160	29	2	13	97	2	0	40	100	0.315	0.373	0.457	0.83	130	232	12	10	0	5	2	379/D	AS,MVP-18
2014	29	STL	NL	97	398	367	34	87	17	1	7	44	1	1	26	77	0.237	0.291	0.346	0.638	78	127	11	3	0	2	0	*937

Allen Craig

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