Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Teams get better performances due to better health luck and improvement in players that aren't under 25 all the time. The 2023 Rangers must have been stupid to expect a different result when they ran back the same lineup that won 68 games in 2022. Then they won 90 games and the World Series with the only under 25 addition being Josh Jung. The Red Sox have a lot of talent already on the roster and running it back has just as good a chance of succeeding as bringing in the different flawed players who are available now.

We can agree to disagree on where the respective teams were starting from, I suppose. I mean, technically the Red Sox line up in 2004 was pretty much running it back from 2003 (Walker to Bellhorn, of course). Same for 2017 to 2018 (at least in terms of young players - though they did add an "old DH" that couldn't play the field). I suppose a better way to say it is, I really don't think the Red Sox line up is all that good. (Again, if you're only scoring the 9th most runs and you have the 2nd best hitters park, I don't think that's good enough IF you're going to have terrible infield defense as well).

I think it'd be "good enough" if they fixed the infield defense, for the record. I also think it'd be "good enough" if they had acquired JD Martinez v2025 - and who knows, they still might! But, I don't believe in Story enough to say that Story and Campbell/Grissom/Hamilton will fix the infield defense. Something needs to be fixed. They either need to score a lot more runs or prevent them. I don't think they're going to score a lot more runs. Crochet will help in the "prevention" department, but only so much.

 

[cantor44]

Thinking it over, the only way I can see a Bregman addition working is if the team is willing to ask Raffy to largely DH. There is a scenario, maybe, where Bregman could play both corners, sometimes platooning in for Casas against tough lefties. Add in some rest for Bregman, and then maybe Raffy sees 1/3 of the games at third. That, and Bregman being willing to take 4 years or less. Oh, and of course then Yoshida would need to be traded ...
Meanwhile, if Anthony and Campbell are the real deal ready this year, maybe eventually you'd get:
C: Wong, 1B: Casas/Bregman, 2B: Campbell, SS: Story, 3B: Bregman/Raffy, LF: Anthony., CF: Duran, RF: Abreu/Refsynder, DH: Raffy/Casas/Bregman, Super Utility: Rafaela

 

[KillerBs]

And we need to plan for Mayer's emergence too.

Ideally by August, we are running with

C Wong
1b Devers
2b Campbell
3b Story
SS Mayer
LF Anthony
CF Duran
RF Abreu
DH Casas

which would be fun and leave Grissom, Rafaela and Yoshida on the outside looking in.

It will be interesting to see if the Mayer or Anthony get any time at 3b this spring. Grissom better come out of the box hitting.

 

[LogansDad]

And we need to plan for Mayer's emergence too.

Ideally by August, we are running with

C Wong
1b Devers
2b Campbell
3b Story
SS Mayer
LF Anthony
CF Duran
RF Abreu
DH Casas

which would be fun and leave Grissom, Rafaela and Yoshida on the outside looking in.

It will be interesting to see if the Mayer or Anthony get any time at 3b this spring. Grissom better come out of the box hitting.

Assuming you mean Campbell, and not Anthony (who should definitely not see 3B), I think you are very likely to see both Mayer and Campbell get plenty of time over there. Right now, though, barring no other moves, I really feel like the OD lineup is Grissom at 2B and Campbell in LF, but that's just a feeling I have, not based on anything else.

 

[KillerBs]

Yes of course, Campbell at 3b not Anthony.

The story of the year (no pun intended) is likely to be how and when they bring up the big 3. I am sympathetic to true spring training battles, but in the end to maximize value, I am leaning to giving Grissom and Rafaela 6 to 8 weeks to prove it, while letting the kids rake more in AAA. If they all are good, then so be it, good problem to have.

If Mayer emerges too and Story is healthy, decisions will need to be made: either Devers off of 3b or Campbell/Grissom off of 2b.

 

[Rasputin]

Assuming you mean Campbell, and not Anthony (who should definitely not see 3B), I think you are very likely to see both Mayer and Campbell get plenty of time over there. Right now, though, barring no other moves, I really feel like the OD lineup is Grissom at 2B and Campbell in LF, but that's just a feeling I have, not based on anything else.

I don't see how it makes any sense to put Campbell in left when he's the #2 option at second.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Teams get better performances due to better health luck and improvement in players that aren't under 25 all the time. The 2023 Rangers must have been stupid to expect a different result when they ran back the same lineup that won 68 games in 2022. Then they won 90 games and the World Series with the only under 25 addition being Josh Jung. The Red Sox have a lot of talent already on the roster and running it back has just as good a chance of succeeding as bringing in the different flawed players who are available now.

Right, they instead focused on bolstering their SP depth with mostly short-term additions (and Aroldis Chapman). Sounds strangely familiar, I wonder if some other team run by a pitcher who went to an Ivy is trying something similar?

Although, @jon abbey is correct that the Rangers were a Mariner faceplant away from missing the playoffs entirely.

 

[LogansDad]

I don't see how it makes any sense to put Campbell in left when he's the #2 option at second.

Because he also might be the #1 option in left field? He has worked there in the minors and it has definitely been out there as an option for him, and if both him and Grissom break camp with the team, he has to play somewhere. If Grissom sucks out loud in the spring, then maybe Campbell ends up at 2B, though.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Because he also might be the #1 option in left field? He has worked there in the minors and it has definitely been out there as an option for him, and if both him and Grissom break camp with the team, he has to play somewhere. If Grissom sucks out loud in the spring, then maybe Campbell ends up at 2B, though.

My hot take is that I think Grissom has a higher chance of being a left fielder than Campbell with the Red Sox. I just don’t see anything at all watching him that leads me to believe he can be an average defender.

 

[Fishy1]

My hot take is that I think Grissom has a higher chance of being a left fielder than Campbell with the Red Sox. I just don’t see anything at all watching him that leads me to believe he can be an average defender.

Agreed. He doesn't look like a middle infielder to me. Range was abysmal. I hope he focuses on filling out and tries to tap into his power.

 

[CKDexterHaven]

And we need to plan for Mayer's emergence too.

Ideally by August, we are running with

C Wong
1b Devers
2b Campbell
3b Story
SS Mayer
LF Anthony
CF Duran
RF Abreu
DH Casas

which would be fun and leave Grissom, Rafaela and Yoshida on the outside looking in.

It will be interesting to see if the Mayer or Anthony get any time at 3b this spring. Grissom better come out of the box hitting.

Story at third scares me. His arm. I’d rather see him at second again than even at short.
And why convert Devers to first? Because the thinking is that he’d be a better 1b than Casas, or because he’d be expected to make a stink about a ‘demotion’ to a Papi role?

 

[LogansDad]

My hot take is that I think Grissom has a higher chance of being a left fielder than Campbell with the Red Sox. I just don’t see anything at all watching him that leads me to believe he can be an average defender.

That's fair, too, and I could definitely see Grissom LF and Campbell 2B on opening day, too.

Hopefully the two of them make it a problem worth having.

 

[Margo McCready]

Story at third scares me. His arm. I’d rather see him at second again than even at short.
And why convert Devers to first? Because the thinking is that he’d be a better 1b than Casas, or because he’d be expected to make a stink about a ‘demotion’ to a Papi role?

To have lived through the 2020-2024 Boston Red Sox and to *not* want to see more Trevor Story at shortstop just seems completely divorced from reality to me. Dude is clearly the best defensive infielder we’ve had since Pedroia.

 

[CKDexterHaven]

To have lived through the 2020-2024 Boston Red Sox and to *not* want to see more Trevor Story at shortstop just seems completely divorced from reality to me. Dude is clearly the best defensive infielder we’ve had since Pedroia.

My comment was certainly not about his skills. I thought I was being clear—it’s a (paranoid?) concern about his arm. Does he not have injury history there? Maybe I’m wrong, but I never thought he had the strongest arm and that his tosses were meant to preserve it. But, whatever—that’s still all in the context of the alternatives that might present themselves in the coming year or two: Mayer, Campbell, possibly at SS and 3rd. If his arm is sound, great. I just have ‘trust issues’ on that front.

https://roxpile.com/2021/05/28/colorado-rockies-trevor-story-injury-history-updates/

 

[buttons]

My comment was certainly not about his skills. I thought I was being clear—it’s a (paranoid?) concern about his arm. Does he not have injury history there? Maybe I’m wrong, but I never thought he had the strongest arm and that his tosses were meant to preserve it. But, whatever—that’s still all in the context of the alternatives that might present themselves in the coming year or two: Mayer, Campbell, possibly at SS and 3rd. If his arm is sound, great. I just have ‘trust issues’ on that front.

https://roxpile.com/2021/05/28/colorado-rockies-trevor-story-injury-history-updates/

I understand the concern based on his injury history but Trevor Story is darn good player

 

[bnyc]

If Mayer moves [a healthy] Story off SS, it's more likely he would move to 2B, not 3B. I think Campbell has a more likely home at 3B than the outfield and I've always thought Devers was going to be a DH.

 

[BaseballJones]

The dream scenario is that in the first month of the season, Mayer, Campbell, and Anthony all absolutely destroy AAA and get called up to the majors, and all three perform like ROY candidates. They would end up displacing Yoshida, Story (who would move to 2b, so the incumbent 2b would really be displaced), and whoever is the DH. I don't know which guy would play what position, but they'd figure that out. Maybe injuries take care of this, who knows.

 

[Monbonthbump]

The last time I remember this much excitement about two minor leaguer infielders becoming starters for the Red Sox from the farm team was when Don Buddin and Frank Malzone were playing at Louisville. One of them worked out really well, the other, not so much.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

The dream scenario is that in the first month of the season, Mayer, Campbell, and Anthony all absolutely destroy AAA and get called up to the majors, and all three perform like ROY candidates. They would end up displacing Yoshida, Story (who would move to 2b, so the incumbent 2b would really be displaced), and whoever is the DH. I don't know which guy would play what position, but they'd figure that out. Maybe injuries take care of this, who knows.

See I think this is pretty much a nightmare scenario. This is what happened with Skenes. They burned a year of control and because he wasn’t on the opening day, they didn’t qualify for the player performance draft compensation.

If they aren’t going to be on opening day, I don’t want to see them until the summer when the team can break them into the majors but maintain 6 full years of control.

 

[marcoscutaro]

Re Story’s arm strength, he had the elbow brace procedure in Jan 23, which is why he missed so much of the season, and going by limited statcast info from 24, his arm strength seems to be roughly back around where it was four years ago (it declined two successive seasons in 22/23).

Bregman having bone chips removed from his elbow a couple of months ago (a recurring ailment btw) might dovetail nicely with his willingness to play 2B. Again I think Yoshida is far easier to move with two years rather than three, and so if they have Bregman mainly at 2nd in 25 season, they could free the DH spot for Devers for the ‘26 season and slide a fully recovered Bregman back to 3B.

 

[BaseballJones]

See I think this is pretty much a nightmare scenario. This is what happened with Skenes. They burned a year of control and because he wasn’t on the opening day, they didn’t qualify for the player performance draft compensation.

If they aren’t going to be on opening day, I don’t want to see them until the summer when the team can break them into the majors but maintain 6 full years of control.

I wasn't thinking about that. Good point. My thought was simply that these guys emerge this season as really, really good MLB players right out of the gate. That was the gist.

But what you describe isn't a nightmare. Yes they'd lose a year of control, but they'd still be great players. That's not a nightmare. That's a little inconvenience. The nightmare scenario is that none of them ever amount to anything at the MLB level.

 

[jmanny24]

I voted Bregman for a number of reasons.
1. A big reason the Dodgers are so successful and seemingly in on everyone is not only do they spend, but Friedman's free agency philosophy. In 2016 he said, "If you're rational about every free agent, you'll end up 3rd on every free agent."
2. The Sox need an IMPACT rh bat and for me the best one available on the market is Bregman. I don't want it via trade because that will further deplete the system they've done so well building back up.
3. Of course the contract will be bad by it's end, they all are that's the nature of today's free agency. But with each passing year it may also become less bad as contracts get more and more out of control.
4. I don't see it as blocking Campbell because Campbell can play so many different positions if he pushes his way through for every day at bats.
5. Lastly, I want Bregman because it puts the team in a better position. If Campbell is ready right away, that's a great position to be in, but if he struggles Bregman is there as a safety net and there is less reliance on Grissom, Hamilton, Gonzalez, etc. Of course we all want Campbell to rake from the jump, but just because computer projections think he will doesn't make it so. The team would be in a better position to give themselves the cushion of easing Campbell in if need be.

 

[TheDogMan]

What I wouldn’t give to never read major league players lumped in with prospects again. People have whatever the opposite of prospect fatigue is with Campbell and Anthony & Mayer, when they haven’t got a single major league plate appearance between them. And as far as trading for prospects goes, idk what this winter told you about getting equivalent value for a good young 1B with 4 years of control does for pitching, except a salary dump. I’m very firmly in the camp that you shouldn’t ever trade a major league player for a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP believer here).

My brother said two things that stick with me regarding this, "All prospects are suspects" and "Nothing gets a manager fired faster than players with potential."

 

[E5 Yaz]

@pgammo
If ownership cannot buy into what Bregman can mean to the lineup and the uncertain infield defense behind potentially solid starting pitching, a friend and follower of the boundless enthusiasm of Xers Tyler Milliken and Jared Carrabis asked for positive prospect numbers vs. lefthanders..TK

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

@pgammo
If ownership cannot buy into what Bregman can mean to the lineup and the uncertain infield defense behind potentially solid starting pitching, a friend and follower of the boundless enthusiasm of Xers Tyler Milliken and Jared Carrabis asked for positive prospect numbers vs. lefthanders..TK

I'm not usually the type to make a big show of not being able to understand a Gammons tweet, but... what does this mean?

I think it's something like "Because they're starting to sense that the Red Sox FO isn't very excited about Bregman, some of the extremely-online chroniclers of the team have asked their sources to provide some optimism in the form of data on the prospects, and they were told that info is still forthcoming." (I know what TK means ordinarily, but its meaning in context is unclear.)

 

[Fishy1]

The Red Sox of the last twenty years have been built on former top prospects. Pedroia, Lester, Mookie, Devers, Papelbon, Buchholz, Xander, Benintendi, JBJ, Eduardo Rodriguez. There's plenty of others.

I actually can't remember the last time a Red Sox player with great pedigree and an impressive upper minors track record really, really flopped. Swihart is one. Other than that...Moncada? Other prospects, generally speaking? Sure. Lars Anderson, Garin Cecchini, Trey Ball, Craig Hansen, etc.--but those guys never really did anything above AA. Somebody help me out, I feel like I'm being preposterous. Moncada, I guess, although the story isn't done with him. Middlebrooks, I guess, and Dalbec, but their results in the minors even when they were hitting were suspect because of their problems with discipline and whiffs. (which brings Ceddanne to mind...)

My point is the hit rate for position player prospects of Anthony and Campbell's quality and performance is higher than a lot of people think. Nothing is guaranteed, of course it isn't, but it's not guaranteed for free agent acquisitions either. Bregman's athleticism could fall off a cliff, or his bat could. Profar could go back to being Profar. Santander could fall victim to being older than 30 years old, as we all do.

When you delay bringing guys up who are ready to try the big leagues--and I think we'll pretty much know if Anthony and Campbell are by the beginning of next season or close to it--there's an opportunity cost. The chance that they will come out and have an outstanding rookie season is good enough that if you keep them in the minors, you're potentially wasting performance that could be helping your team win right now, while giving hundreds of at-bats to a player who may be over the hill very soon. Roman Anthony or Campbell could come out, sure, with a 90 wrc+ and average to above average defense. That would be disappointing. They could also make Wilyer or Casas' rookie seasons look like child's play.

I would be fine with signing Bregman if they could offload Yoshida and move Devers to DH. I would not be fine bringing him in to start at 2B and blocking Campbell in the long run.

 

[BaseballJones]

Swihart was "great" in AA/AAA for parts of two seasons: 2014 and 2015.

2014: 110 g, .293/.342/.469/.810
2015: 22 g, .321/.368/.370/.738

His 2016 stint in AAA was poor (29 g, .243/.344/.311/.655). Overall in 10 seasons in the minors over the course of his whole career, he put up a slash line of .257/.322/.391/.713.

His total AAA slash line (219 g) was .218/.295/.336/.631. Not very good at all.

He had a little flash in the high minors briefly, and that got everyone excited.

 

[LogansDad]

The Red Sox of the last twenty years have been built on former top prospects. Pedroia, Lester, Mookie, Devers, Papelbon, Buchholz, Xander, Benintendi, JBJ, Eduardo Rodriguez. There's plenty of others.

I actually can't remember the last time a Red Sox player with great pedigree and an impressive upper minors track record really, really flopped. Swihart is one. Other than that...Moncada? Other prospects, generally speaking? Sure. Lars Anderson, Garin Cecchini, Trey Ball, Craig Hansen, etc.--but those guys never really did anything above AA. Somebody help me out, I feel like I'm being preposterous. Moncada, I guess, although the story isn't done with him. Middlebrooks, I guess, and Dalbec, but their results in the minors even when they were hitting were suspect because of their problems with discipline and whiffs. (which brings Ceddanne to mind...)

My point is the hit rate for position player prospects of Anthony and Campbell's quality and performance is higher than a lot of people think. Nothing is guaranteed, of course it isn't, but it's not guaranteed for free agent acquisitions either. Bregman's athleticism could fall off a cliff, or his bat could. Profar could go back to being Profar. Santander could fall victim to being older than 30 years old, as we all do.

When you delay bringing guys up who are ready to try the big leagues--and I think we'll pretty much know if Anthony and Campbell are by the beginning of next season or close to it--there's an opportunity cost. The chance that they will come out and have an outstanding rookie season is good enough that if you keep them in the minors, you're potentially wasting performance that could be helping your team win right now, while giving hundreds of at-bats to a player who may be over the hill very soon. Roman Anthony or Campbell could come out, sure, with a 90 wrc+ and average to above average defense. That would be disappointing. They could also make Wilyer or Casas' rookie seasons look like child's play.

I would be fine with signing Bregman if they could offload Yoshida and move Devers to DH. I would not be fine bringing him in to start at 2B and blocking Campbell in the long run.

Moncada has put up 14 career WAR (no I don't like using it to compare two players, but it works here) so I would hardly call him a flop.

The one thing that scares me about the idea of bringing all three of them up at the same time is that the gap between AAA and MLB pitching (and defense) right now is higher than it may have ever been. Mayer, Anthony and Campbell have to be playing everyday, no matter where they are, so if you open the season with all three in the lineup, you have the potential to have three really big black holes while they adjust (which I believe all three will). That said, a lineup of Duran-Casas-Story-Devers-Abreu with the catcher and the three kids behind them, should still produce a good amount of runs. If Campbell crushes and moves into the to RHB spot in the lineup like I expect him to very quickly, you are absolutely cooking.

It's why I hate the idea of a long term contract for Bregman (and why I keep stating it). I think he is a great fit for this team in April 2025, but he isn't going to be here in just April of 2025, and I am pretty sure his fit will be much worse by July 2025.

 

[LogansDad]

Swihart was "great" in AA/AAA for parts of two seasons: 2014 and 2015.

2014: 110 g, .293/.342/.469/.810
2015: 22 g, .321/.368/.370/.738

His 2016 stint in AAA was poor (29 g, .243/.344/.311/.655). Overall in 10 seasons in the minors over the course of his whole career, he put up a slash line of .257/.322/.391/.713.

His total AAA slash line (219 g) was .218/.295/.336/.631. Not very good at all.

He had a little flash in the high minors briefly, and that got everyone excited.

Plus he was a catcher. I never got the feeling Swihart was a mega-prospect if he didn't come with the ability to play catcher attached. I think Teel is a better prospect than Swihart was, but I also think his status was inflated by the catcher tag a bit, which made me come around to being very happy with the Crochet trade (before my initial panic over it).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Not a Red Sox, but Jared Kelenic was a top prospect who murdered AAA at age 21 and has been a bust as a pro; Alex Kirilloff was another. Gregory Polanco? Jo Adell? Dylan Carlson? Carter Kieboom?
It does happen.

 

[Fishy1]

Not a Red Sox, but Jared Kelenic was a top prospect who murdered AAA at age 21 and has been a bust as a pro; Alex Kirilloff was another. Gregory Polanco? Jo Adell? Dylan Carlson? Carter Kieboom?
It does happen.

For sure. I just think we take the TINSTAAP thing as Bible when of course theres no such thing as a sure anything and sometimes free agents are more of a risk to bust than prospects are.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

For sure. I just think we take the TINSTAAP thing as Bible when of course theres no such thing as a sure anything and sometimes free agents are more of a risk to bust than prospects are.

Perhaps, but I think there’s also a bit of overreaction in the other direction- lots of talk about “steep decline phases” and the like for guys who are 30,31. The Sox have had a ton of great seasons from players who may be technically “past their prime”. Players may, on average, peak at like 25-27, but you can obviously get production from players from all ages. And lack of it too. A certain degree of risk in all players and all decisions; whether that’s giving a job to an unproven 21 year old or a contract that will pay a guy a lot of money until he’s 36.

 

[chrisfont9]

Wait, I thought this was the year. If it is not why on Earth sign Beuhler for 1 season.

McCaffrey Athletic story today talks about why they signed Buehler. Basically they wanted a grizzled vet to help the young guys learn how to win.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6036495/2025/01/03/walker-buehler-red-sox-introduction/

 

[snowmanny]

@pgammo
If ownership cannot buy into what Bregman can mean to the lineup and the uncertain infield defense behind potentially solid starting pitching, a friend and follower of the boundless enthusiasm of Xers Tyler Milliken and Jared Carrabis asked for positive prospect numbers vs. lefthanders..TK

Campbell 2024 OPS RHP/LHP .992/.991
Anthony 2024 OPS RHP/LHP .894/.904
fwiw
Campbell RHB
Anthony LHB
Mayer LHB split .896/.674

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Not a Red Sox, but Jared Kelenic was a top prospect who murdered AAA at age 21 and has been a bust as a pro; Alex Kirilloff was another. Gregory Polanco? Jo Adell? Dylan Carlson? Carter Kieboom?
It does happen.

This is a bit half-baked as theories go, but everyone you mention above other than Polanco came up in either 2020 or 2021, that may have had something to do with it. Heck, if you want a Red Sox example, there’s Jeter Downs, another guy whose development was interrupted by the pandemic (I still think the Sox FO screwed that one up, but I can’t fault them too badly).

EDIT: Now, post-pandemic, people who would know have noted how the contraction of the minor leagues means fewer AAAA-types who can expose batters to near MLB-quality pitching in the high minors, which led to the Hollidays of the world struggling on first exposure. A few players talk about it here: https://defector.com/the-minor-league-shrink-and-the-growing-gap-between-triple-a-and-the-bigs

 

[chrisfont9]

My comment was certainly not about his skills. I thought I was being clear—it’s a (paranoid?) concern about his arm. Does he not have injury history there? Maybe I’m wrong, but I never thought he had the strongest arm and that his tosses were meant to preserve it. But, whatever—that’s still all in the context of the alternatives that might present themselves in the coming year or two: Mayer, Campbell, possibly at SS and 3rd. If his arm is sound, great. I just have ‘trust issues’ on that front.

https://roxpile.com/2021/05/28/colorado-rockies-trevor-story-injury-history-updates/

His arm had looked bad because of a UCL injury. He played through it in 2022, but then had surgery in 2023. So like innumerable pitchers, when it's fixed, it's fixed, until it breaks again (which is less likely as a SS than SP, but still a chance). I'm not sure if it's any better than average now but it's not a problem, plus he got another unscheduled year of rest in '24. Trevor Story is completely healthy until something new comes up, which is not my favorite subject but hopefully his luck finally changes.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

This is a bit half-baked as theories go, but everyone you mention above other than Polanco came up in either 2020 or 2021, that may have had something to do with it. Heck, if you want a Red Sox example, there’s Jeter Downs, another guy whose development was interrupted by the pandemic (I still think the Sox FO screwed that one up, but I can’t fault them too badly).

EDIT: Now, post-pandemic, people who would know have noted how the contraction of the minor leagues means fewer AAAA-types who can expose batters to near MLB-quality pitching in the high minors, which led to the Hollidays of the world struggling on first exposure. A few players talk about it here: https://defector.com/the-minor-league-shrink-and-the-growing-gap-between-triple-a-and-the-bigs

That definitely makes some sense. While it’s awesome that Anthony and Campbell raked in AAA, I wonder if there’s some value to still starting them off there- in the sense that I’m guessing that the quality of pitching at the end of the AAA season may not be great, and also, seems like offense is generally down to start the season anyways (weather, bats coming around more slowly than pitching, etc). If you put these guys in the roster to start the season, you’ve lost two others from the 40/26, so you’ve weakened your depth and it makes it a little more difficult to send them down if you need to.

OTOH, if they are ready, they are ready.

 

[kazuneko]

I would be fine with signing Bregman if they could offload Yoshida and move Devers to DH. I would not be fine bringing him in to start at 2B and blocking Campbell in the long run.

100% agree. If Bregman comes to Boston the biggest benefit should be the huge upgrade from Devers horrific glove to Bregman’s gold glove winning defense. If instead they place him at a position that he’s likely to not even be good at (his bad numbers at SS suggest that he doesn’t have the range for the MI) it will quite possibly make the team’s IF defense even worse defensively than they were last year (if that’s even possible) - all at the cost of contract that will be priced high in part because of Bregman’s superlative defense.
I mean, Jesus, if they wanted a RH bat who would play bad defense at 2b they could have just signed Gleyber Torres to a 1-year $15 million contract.

 

[Rasputin]

Because he also might be the #1 option in left field?

He's not, though. Jarren Duran is.

 

[YTF]

He's not, though. Jarren Duran is.

I also can't see him blocking Anthony in left unless RF opens up.

 

[kazuneko]

He's not, though. Jarren Duran is.

I assume this “Campbell in LF” option is in reference to the idea that Rafaela might be best utilized in a super utility role, since he’s shown no ability to actually hit the ball and Duran was also strong defensively in CF last year. This allows the team to add in the RH bat it needs without trading Yoshida or restructuring the IF. It also might be the only scenario that allows both Grissom and Campbell a chance to start.

 

[Rasputin]

I assume this “Campbell in LF” option is in reference to the idea that Rafaela might be best utilized in a super utility role, since he’s shown no ability to actually hit the ball and Duran was also strong defensively in CF last year. This allows the team to add in the RH bat it needs without trading Yoshida or restructuring the IF. It also might be the only scenario that allows both Grissom and Campbell a chance to start.

The team signed him to a long term contract. He's going to get every chance to start. He's also the best defensive player we have and a relatively small improvement at the plate would make him a perfectly cromulent every day player.

It is highly likely that we go with Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Devers, Story, Grissom, Casas, and Wong.

One or more of the kids could press the issue and injuries are always a possibility but if it comes down to a close decision, the team is going to decide to keep as many assets as possible and kick the decision down the road just like every team always does.

At some point, Campbell, Mayer, Anthony and others are going to get a shot through injury or bad performance by someone in the lineup and how they perform is going to dictate how they get integrated into the team.

Campbell starting in left on opening day is certainly not impossible, but he's coming to spring with a chance to win the second base job so I don't see him spending all that much time in the outfield.

In short, everything is possible and very little is remotely likely.

 

[kazuneko]

The team signed him to a long term contract. He's going to get every chance to start. He's also the best defensive player we have and a relatively small improvement at the plate would make him a perfectly cromulent every day player.

It is highly likely that we go with Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Devers, Story, Grissom, Casas, and Wong.

One or more of the kids could press the issue and injuries are always a possibility but if it comes down to a close decision, the team is going to decide to keep as many assets as possible and kick the decision down the road just like every team always does.

At some point, Campbell, Mayer, Anthony and others are going to get a shot through injury or bad performance by someone in the lineup and how they perform is going to dictate how they get integrated into the team.

Campbell starting in left on opening day is certainly not impossible, but he's coming to spring with a chance to win the second base job so I don't see him spending all that much time in the outfield.

In short, everything is possible and very little is remotely likely.

Unless they add to the roster I too expect that Rafaela will be the expected starter at CF - but that doesn’t mean he’s assured of keeping that job.
In fact if Rafaela doesn’t at least maintain last year’s hitting performance,- and possibly even if he does- I don’t think it would at all be surprising to see Anthony or Campbell take his job (by taking over in LF and pushing Duran to CF) during the season, maybe even early on. Rafaela has value as a super utility player but the fact that he was one of the worst bats among qualified hitters last season makes his situation pretty clear : he needs to improve his hitting if he doesn't want to be relegated to a back up role. This will be particularly pressing this season if Anthony and/or Campbell continue to hit. In fact, without a major injury or a trade of one of our top prospects, I would assume that it’s more likely than not that Rafaela’s on the bench by the end of the season. In other words, I think it’s far more likely Anthony or Campbell are superior enough hitters to Rafaela that any defensive advantage he brings won’t be enough to keep him in the starting lineup when one or both of them are ready, than it is that Rafaela progresses enough as a hitter that he will end up a starter in the OF over them.

 

[burstnbloom]

Not a Red Sox, but Jared Kelenic was a top prospect who murdered AAA at age 21 and has been a bust as a pro; Alex Kirilloff was another. Gregory Polanco? Jo Adell? Dylan Carlson? Carter Kieboom?
It does happen.

Jared Kelenic murdered AAA at 21 for 100 at bats that showed a significant step forward from his AA and A performance with his hit tool, which has never repeated. Kirilloff never really performed above A ball except a BABIP related spike in AAA after he had been demoted from MLB. Polanco had a great year in AAA at 22, but it was far beyond anything he had ever done prior offensively, and he had 3 2+ Win seasons before he turned 27 and injuries derailed his career. Jo Adell struck out 32% of the time in his MiLB career, exactly the kinda guy who busts out against mlb pitching. Dylan Carlson took a massive step in AAA and then was a rookie of the year finalist. He's a strange case bc the fall off was precipitous but cards fans think he wasn't the same guy after getting hit by a pitch on the wrist in 2022. Finally Carter Kieboom had an impressive run at AAA then debuted, struggled to adjust in 100ish games, then had Tommy John and missed almost 2 years of baseball.

My point is, you can always come up with examples of players who were highly regarded that didn't turn into anything. But when you look under the hood on most of these "busts" there is usually a story in their numbers or some kind of injury or developmental hurdle that ruined their careers. Also, only Kelenic and Adell had the top 5, top 10 pedigree that Campbell and Anthony had and their profiles are very different.

I think a different way to look at their pedigree is to go back and look at the top 10 prospects in baseball every year for the last 10-15 years, most of those players were at least solid players. There are plenty of guys like Victor Robles and Jurickson Profar who didn't live up to the hype but are still MLB players. There are tragic cases like Oscar Tavares, Jose Fernandez and Tyler Skaggs. But there is also Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Fransico Lindor, Corey Seager and on and on. There are certainly also Addison Russell and Miguel Sano, but if you really look at who was on those lists, its far more likely that these guys are solid regulars rather than Alex Kiriloff.

 

[Fishy1]

Jared Kelenic murdered AAA at 21 for 100 at bats that showed a significant step forward from his AA and A performance with his hit tool, which has never repeated. Kirilloff never really performed above A ball except a BABIP related spike in AAA after he had been demoted from MLB. Polanco had a great year in AAA at 22, but it was far beyond anything he had ever done prior offensively, and he had 3 2+ Win seasons before he turned 27 and injuries derailed his career. Jo Adell struck out 32% of the time in his MiLB career, exactly the kinda guy who busts out against mlb pitching. Dylan Carlson took a massive step in AAA and then was a rookie of the year finalist. He's a strange case bc the fall off was precipitous but cards fans think he wasn't the same guy after getting hit by a pitch on the wrist in 2022. Finally Carter Kieboom had an impressive run at AAA then debuted, struggled to adjust in 100ish games, then had Tommy John and missed almost 2 years of baseball.

My point is, you can always come up with examples of players who were highly regarded that didn't turn into anything. But when you look under the hood on most of these "busts" there is usually a story in their numbers or some kind of injury or developmental hurdle that ruined their careers. Also, only Kelenic and Adell had the top 5, top 10 pedigree that Campbell and Anthony had and their profiles are very different.

I think a different way to look at their pedigree is to go back and look at the top 10 prospects in baseball every year for the last 10-15 years, most of those players were at least solid players. There are plenty of guys like Victor Robles and Jurickson Profar who didn't live up to the hype but are still MLB players. There are tragic cases like Oscar Tavares, Jose Fernandez and Tyler Skaggs. But there is also Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Fransico Lindor, Corey Seager and on and on. There are certainly also Addison Russell and Miguel Sano, but if you really look at who was on those lists, its far more likely that these guys are solid regulars rather than Alex Kiriloff.

Anthony and Campbell look even more impressive when you compare them historically to other guys who've performed as they have, at their age. (wrc+ over 140 for Anthony, and in Campbell's case, over 170). They profile very similarly to Casas and Abreu, two guys who strike out a fair amount but who also have good plate discipline, and those guys had immediate success in the big leagues. The difference is Antony was about 10% better when he was two years younger, and Campbell was nearly 50% better.

It's easy to just say TINSTAAP but the track record of guys who've done what they've done to the minor leagues is exceptional. There's no reason to block these guys. They need to play, and soon. Everyone's split on exactly when, but at the end of the day it needs to happen very soon.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Anthony and Campbell… They need to play, and soon. Everyone's split on exactly when, but at the end of the day it needs to happen very soon.

As someone that is advocating very strongly to add a core, long term hitter, I do want to say I agree totally vis a vis Anthony and Campbell. I’m not saying to block them, and I‘m not anticipating either one to be any worse than let’s say Alex Verdugo - which would be both a disappointment but also a competent MLB player.

What I‘m against is banking on the above in concert with banking on 1) Story being healthy; 2) Story being effective; 3) this being enough to fix the infield defense; 3) Casas playing 145 games; 4) Duran repeating his effectiveness against LHP; 5) Abreu being able to hit LHPs; 6) Yoshida being able to hit LHPs; 7) Mayer being healthy and 8):Mayer being able to hit LHPs.

Personally, I bank on the success of Anthony, Campbell and Casas, with Duran being able to sustain a .320OBP against LHPs. Even assuming those things, there is still plenty of room for another core bat.

 

[EddieYost]

As someone that is advocating very strongly to add a core, long term hitter, I do want to say I agree totally vis a vis Anthony and Campbell. I’m not saying to block them, and I‘m not anticipating either one to be any “worse” than let’s say Alex Verdugo - which would be both a disappointment but also a competent MLB player.

What I‘m against is banking on the above in concert with banking on 1) Story being healthy; 2) Story being effective; 3) this being enough to “fix” the infield defense; 3) Casas playing 145 games; 4) Duran repeating his “effectiveness“ against LHP; 5) Abreu being able to hit LHPs; 6) Yoshida being able to hit LHPs; 7) Mayer being healthy and 8):Mayer being able to hit LHPs.

Personally, I bank on the success of Anthony, Campbell and Casas, with Duran being able to sustain a .320OBP against LHPs. Even assuming those things, there is still plenty of room for another core bat.

What’s up with using quotes three times? I am not sure how to interpret what you are saying. Each time it reads better without the quotes.

 

[Fishy1]

As someone that is advocating very strongly to add a core, long term hitter, I do want to say I agree totally vis a vis Anthony and Campbell. I’m not saying to block them, and I‘m not anticipating either one to be any “worse” than let’s say Alex Verdugo - which would be both a disappointment but also a competent MLB player.

What I‘m against is banking on the above in concert with banking on 1) Story being healthy; 2) Story being effective; 3) this being enough to “fix” the infield defense; 3) Casas playing 145 games; 4) Duran repeating his “effectiveness“ against LHP; 5) Abreu being able to hit LHPs; 6) Yoshida being able to hit LHPs; 7) Mayer being healthy and 8):Mayer being able to hit LHPs.

Personally, I bank on the success of Anthony, Campbell and Casas, with Duran being able to sustain a .320OBP against LHPs. Even assuming those things, there is still plenty of room for another core bat.

Yeah, I'm in full agreement. We want something to hedge against all of that. I'm just not sure if it will be the big shiny toy everyone is hoping for.

Edit: or if not full, close to full.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Got rid of the quotes. I sincerely hope they talk as much about baseball on the Sons of Rodney Huddleston site as we talk about grammar usage here, that would make SoRH much more interesting, I‘m sure.

As to your point @Fishy1, I agree it’s highly unlikely to be Bregman, Alonso or Hernandez, and those are likely the only bats remaining that command at least 4 years and call it north of $20m AAV.

While I advocated for Profar a couple years back, I do think the team is in a different spot now and needs more high impact talent than another good but not great piece. But if Breslow thinks Profar can be a more impactful player in Boston and gives him 3/$45/$15, then all good.

Personally the name I’d prefer if taking that route is Spencer Steer, as he has more recently covered many positions (saw time at each of 1b, 2b, and each corner OF spot last year, as well as time at 3b in 2023). Steer wouldn’t fix the defensive issues on the infield, but has been very good against LHPs and useful enough against RHPs in his career. I doubt he’d be all that good in RF at Fenway Park, but with Abreu, Anthony and Rafaela, that is admittedly not a large concern.

I won‘t pretend to know what he would cost in terms of prospects, but I‘m quite certain it would not be Anthony or Campbell.

I don’t have anything against Suzuki if that were the move, but I do think the idea of someone that can adequately play 1b or 3b and provide insurance there would be more beneficial.

Others have mentioned Kim, and he’d fit here too.

There were (and are) certainly paths I preferred to Arenado. But we’re here on 1/5/25, I’d also be fine with him being the addition and hoping that - while understanding some of his home runs will certainly become singles and doubles in Fenway - that enough of his field outs being changed to singles, doubles and home runs would make up for the difference and then some. He’d be in that Profar / Steer / Kim tier for me.

I just hope they invest at the “Profar” tier as opposed to only going the “Canha” tier.

 

[simplicio]

I just hope they invest at the “Profar” tier as opposed to only going the “Canha” tier.

If they invest in the Canha tier I'm taking that as a vote of confidence in the prospects and I see that as the best possible outcome.