Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat

Do you want the Red Sox to Sign Alex Bregman

  • Yes

  • No


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Yo La Tengo

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If you think the Red Sox have to add a bat, but you don’t want Bregman, you don’t want to block Campbell/Anthony, and you don’t want to give up more prospects, then I’m not sure what the Red Sox can do. I am in the boat that the lineup should pretty much be set as of now, while maybe adding another cheap RHH, and signing another reliever or two. But for those who don’t think the lineup is good enough as is, I’m curious what you think the move should be.
Catcher who hits RHP (and is a defensive upgrade to pair with Wong who crushed LHP last year).
 

TheDogMan

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I think it can be a very realistic possibility without being an expectation. Devers had 9 games at AAA. Anthony and Campbell have both already done more than that and don't seem particularly challenged by the level. Does Anthony need to stay down for another 11 games to exceed Mookie's 45 game total before he's ready?
Sox have at least ROY candidates. There is an incentive if either or both are top 3 and on the 26 all year
 

bnyc

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Oct 7, 2024
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I think that 2025 is going to be all about the Big3 and it should be. Grissom and Hamilton might start the year at 2B and Mayer and Campbell might finish it there; or Campbell becomes our everyday 3B with Devers at DH. However it plays out we have a good shot at the playoffs with a young core [remember Cases, Rafaela, Abreu, etc.] going forward.
 

Fishy1

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Sox have at least ROY candidates. There is an incentive if either or both are top 3 and on the 26 all year
Yeah, the incentive to have them on the roster is pretty big. If they actually show out and win Rookie of the Year, that's a compensation pick, which could be worth a lot down the road. Could also be worth nothing, but there's a reason teams angle for these picks.
 

moondog80

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Yeah, the incentive to have them on the roster is pretty big. If they actually show out and win Rookie of the Year, that's a compensation pick, which could be worth a lot down the road. Could also be worth nothing, but there's a reason teams angle for these picks.
Has someone tired to measure if the potential draft pick is worth more than the extra year of control?
 

Fishy1

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Has someone tired to measure if the potential draft pick is worth more than the extra year of control?
Not that I know of. But the upside of the extra year of control is maybe 4 to 5 wins above replacement level if the player is really a standout, while obviously the potential value of the draft pick is a lot more than that.

I don't know what exactly the odds are of any random pick making it to the majors, of course.
 

OCD SS

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The extra year of control is irrelevant if you extend them till they're 32 :)
IIRC players that sign a long term contract are not eligible for PPI pick - as the assumption is that if they're signed long term then teams aren't going to jerking them around to manipulate their service time. It seems to create the perverse incentive to bring them up and play them, and wait a year to sign them to very long deals.
 

simplicio

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IIRC players that sign a long term contract are not eligible for PPI pick - as the assumption is that if they're signed long term then teams aren't going to jerking them around to manipulate their service time. It seems to create the perverse incentive to bring them up and play them, and wait a year to sign them to very long deals.
No, they just have to debut before the extension. So Jackson Chourio isn't eligible, but Corbin Carroll is.
 

Sox Pride

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IIRC players that sign a long term contract are not eligible for PPI pick - as the assumption is that if they're signed long term then teams aren't going to jerking them around to manipulate their service time. It seems to create the perverse incentive to bring them up and play them, and wait a year to sign them to very long deals.
This. this is the way.
Play them. Have one win Rookie of the Year. Have another win World Series MVP
Earn compensatory pick.
Then extend them all.
 

OCD SS

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No, they just have to debut before the extension. So Jackson Chourio isn't eligible, but Corbin Carroll is.
Thanks for that correction!

I think the plan should be to give them every chance to make the team out of ST - then if they pull a Holliday and need to be sent down, you can do it safely so you extend their service clock by a year because they’re likely not competing for ROY anyway. If they stay up you get to take your shot at the PPI picks, and extend them as soon as you can.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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The extra year of control is irrelevant if you extend them till they're 32 :)
It seems plausible to me that not messing around with a player’s service time could make that player more amenable to signing such an extension. Probably doesn’t hurt, anyway.
 

marcoscutaro

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Jun 15, 2024
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Any player who wins ROTY via the prospect promotion incentive terms will be awarded a year’s service time regardless. Skenes was called up five/six weeks into the season but was awarded a year’s service. However, Pittsburgh only played themselves: because Skenes won ROTY he got the full year of service time, but because he wasn’t on the opening day roster Pittsburgh didn’t get the draft pick.

Disincentive: A team that waits too long to call up a PPI-eligible player who is a Rookie of the Year-caliber prospect will be charged one year of service for a partial year of production. This is because a first- or second-place finish for ROY automatically triggers one year of service.
As noted, this has affected Michael Harris II and Adley Rutschman in 2022 and Tanner Bibee in 2023. Their teams were charged a full year of service for partial seasons from the players.
From: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/prospect-promotion-incentive-explaining-ppi-rules-quirks-more/
 

mikcou

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Any player who wins ROTY via the prospect promotion incentive terms will be awarded a year’s service time regardless. Skenes was called up five/six weeks into the season but was awarded a year’s service. However, Pittsburgh only played themselves: because Skenes won ROTY he got the full year of service time, but because he wasn’t on the opening day roster Pittsburgh didn’t get the draft pick.


From: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/prospect-promotion-incentive-explaining-ppi-rules-quirks-more/
For the record, I dont think the handling of Skenes had anything to do with managing service time so I dont think there was any "play" here; Skenes's ascent was just ridiculously fast making the majors within a year of being drafted. It may be hard to believe looking back, but Skenes had thrown all of 6 professional innings prior to 2024 (and didnt fare well in his very short time in AA in 2023). They rightfully wanted him to get some more time pitching professionally to ensure that he was ready from a skill perspective and get used to throwing 5+ innings on a professional as compared to college schedule (1x a week).
 

OCab44

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Nov 30, 2024
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Say no to Bregman. Sox are gonna pop in the SECOND half of this decade (2026-30) 2025 remains gravy. Keep our future options open.
 

tbrown_01923

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Say no to Bregman. Sox are gonna pop in the SECOND half of this decade (2026-30) 2025 remains gravy. Keep our future options open.
Yup. I agree 100%, let's not compound story and yoshi. We already have two heavy bats (casas/dev) that (one of) will need dh at some point. And I am not confident in bregman beyond the next three years...
 

TheDogMan

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Say no to Bregman. Sox are gonna pop in the SECOND half of this decade (2026-30) 2025 remains gravy. Keep our future options open.
Wait, I thought this was the year. If it is not why on Earth sign Beuhler for 1 season. Same with Chapman, we already have Giolito and Hendricks for only one more year. Next year free agents class is weak. The Yankees or Mets will assuredly be happy to pay more than Boston will for Vlad. Heck, I am not confident that Henry will ok spending the coin to sign Crochet, Houck. or Bello enough money to keep them together for 2026 to 2030. With the right additions we have a legit shot this year. Always being a year away or in a bridge half decade is crap and the Sox have strung us along on the promise of going for it last year and this year. They have not delivered on the promises made to us. Adding Crochet is a nice step, heck we may be a wildcard team provided the kids come through and a closer emerges. Right now, if those two things do not happen the team will not succeed, Bregman, Arrenado or Santander along with either Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates really improve our chances. I think we can add a better catcher by the trade deadline if need be. If we can grab one not, even better
 

CKDexterHaven

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Wait, I thought this was the year. If it is not why on Earth sign Beuhler for 1 season. Same with Chapman, we already have Giolito and Hendricks for only one more year. Next year free agents class is weak. The Yankees or Mets will assuredly be happy to pay more than Boston will for Vlad. Heck, I am not confident that Henry will ok spending the coin to sign Crochet, Houck. or Bello enough money to keep them together for 2026 to 2030. With the right additions we have a legit shot this year. Always being a year away or in a bridge half decade is crap and the Sox have strung us along on the promise of going for it last year and this year. They have not delivered on the promises made to us. Adding Crochet is a nice step, heck we may be a wildcard team provided the kids come through and a closer emerges. Right now, if those two things do not happen the team will not succeed, Bregman, Arrenado or Santander along with either Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates really improve our chances. I think we can add a better catcher by the trade deadline if need be. If we can grab one not, even better
I’m with you. Feels like smoke and mirrors this offseason. Again. Crochet is nice, but if not extended, and we aren’t adding a couple more significant players, i can foresee my agita when we‘ve lost that human capital and have to do it all over again next year. Aren’t all but one of next year‘s FA pitching crop 30 years or older? So, again, we’ll be looking for reclamation projects, recovering TJs, and hoping third choices fall to pillow contracts.

The offseason is still ‘off,‘ and there’s time, I guess, but we’ve spent 11th[?] so far, and the teams that we need to overcome have been more daring and proactive. We’re here endlessly debating Bregman and the team hasn’t even made an offer? Perhaps I could deal with the frustration and paucity of activity if we seemed more proactive. Walker may be fantastic this year, but he still doesn’t feel like a ‘first choice.’ Whoever we get as a RH bat won’t feel like a first choice. Narvaez at C2 doesn’t feel like a first choice.

We have young talent that is very young, and who knows whether they'll see major time in ‘25, and even so, they’ll be but rookies. So, if the ’window’ isn’t now, then when? How much seasoning does a roster with so much youth need to be considered contenders?
 

jon abbey

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The Yankees will not be in on Vlad Jr, they will not value him enough to be in the top bidders. I think much like Soto, he will be a Met because Cohen will not be outbid.
 

benhogan

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Say no to Bregman. Sox are gonna pop in the SECOND half of this decade (2026-30) 2025 remains gravy. Keep our future options open.
This is correct. There are better ways to spend the budget than on 30+ year-old free agents for 5-8 years

Not a perfect comp BUT these are the same types of arguments we had about the Celtics roster post-Kyrie Years. Brad came in, got rid of the older crap (Kemba, Thompson, Fournier, etc) and just built around Tatum & Brown when they were 23/24 years old.

The Sox have a pack of good young ML players & AAA players to build around for the next 5-6 seasons. Extending those controlled players, through their 20s (several FA years) should be the focus.
 

Max Power

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I’m with you. Feels like smoke and mirrors this offseason. Again. Crochet is nice, but if not extended, and we aren’t adding a couple more significant players, i can foresee my agita when we‘ve lost that human capital and have to do it all over again next year. Aren’t all but one of next year‘s FA pitching crop 30 years or older? So, again, we’ll be looking for reclamation projects, recovering TJs, and hoping third choices fall to pillow contracts.

The offseason is still ‘off,‘ and there’s time, I guess, but we’ve spent 11th[?] so far, and the teams that we need to overcome have been more daring and proactive. We’re here endlessly debating Bregman and the team hasn’t even made an offer? Perhaps I could deal with the frustration and paucity of activity if we seemed more proactive. Walker may be fantastic this year, but he still doesn’t feel like a ‘first choice.’ Whoever we get as a RH bat won’t feel like a first choice. Narvaez at C2 doesn’t feel like a first choice.

We have young talent that is very young, and who knows whether they'll see major time in ‘25, and even so, they’ll be but rookies. So, if the ’window’ isn’t now, then when? How much seasoning does a roster with so much youth need to be considered contenders?
You can't just go to the free agent store and buy a hitter. The right player at the right position has to be available. There was one position player who was a guaranteed upgrade over who's already in the organization now, Juan Soto. Everyone else is a maybe who could turn up being the wrong answer you're stuck with for years.

Bregman probably will outhit Grissom and Yoshida, one of whom he'd displace, but it's easy to see that not happening. Especially over the next 5 years.

Teoscar is probably an upgrade in 2025 over Campbell or Anthony, but it's possible he isn't, and probably won't be in years 2 and 3.

Alonso's position is filled by a guy who's already a better hitter than he is.

I just don't see the obvious places the team should be spending money on the lineup or the rotation as they stand now. If they have some cash burning a hole in their pocket, throw it at the bullpen.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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This is correct. There are better ways to spend the budget than on 30+ year-old free agents for 5-8 years

Not a perfect comp BUT these are the same types of arguments we had about the Celtics roster post-Kyrie Years. Brad came in, got rid of the older crap (Kemba, Thompson, Fournier, etc) and just built around Tatum & Brown when they were 23/24 years old.

The Sox have a pack of good young ML players & AAA players to build around for the next 5-6 seasons. Extending those controlled players, through their 20s (several FA years) should be the focus.
Brad also did stuff that many of us want the Sox to do, such as getting "rid of the older crap" for "older crap" that fit a lot better. Kemba was traded for Horford, and remember what people in the NBA thought of his contract at the time. He also didn't simply hoard all of his "they're good but not great" players, but instead he traded them for better fits - even with risks (Smart for Porzingis, Brogdon and Williams for J'rue). He also had no qualms extending those pieces once they got here.

Nobody here has advocated at all getting rid of the "Tatum and Brown" pieces to the roster (and lets just call them Anthony and I dunno, Crochet now, maybe Casas if someone really likes him). We're advocating being willing to make the lose in terms of value trade and package three $5s for a $10 (because nobody is going to give you a $20 for four $5s) and to find those Kemba for Horford deals that fit better into the roster around what the pieces which you are building.

Granted the Cs are and were a heck of a lot closer to title contention than the Sox are, but let's not pretend all Stevens did was wait for his pieces to mature - he made bold moves. To be clear, I think Breslow will too - and Crochet is one (so was Sale for Grissom and Verdugo for Fitts). Hopefully there are more.

I’m with you. Feels like smoke and mirrors this offseason. Again. Crochet is nice, but if not extended, and we aren’t adding a couple more significant players, i can foresee my agita when we‘ve lost that human capital and have to do it all over again next year. Aren’t all but one of next year‘s FA pitching crop 30 years or older? So, again, we’ll be looking for reclamation projects, recovering TJs, and hoping third choices fall to pillow contracts.
Save yourself the worry about three things:

1) No chance they're landing Kyle Tucker or Vladdy Jr next year. Players like that are going to be won by the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees or maybe Philly. Sox will be in - and make a hell of an effort (Soto) and eventually be outbid by someone that has no budget limitations whatsoever.

2) No chance they're landing Cease, Gallen or Framber. Possibly some of us need more data to show that they're not going to ultimately land top of the market FA pitchers with a bulk of the contract going over the age of 30, but you'll save yourself a lot of angst realizing that there is a less than 5% chance of those type of FAs ending up in Boston on long term deals.

3) They're also going to extend Crochet. Just like their past actions are a really good indicator they're not signing a FA top of the market SP, their past actions indicate VERY STRONGLY they're going to extend those they've traded for.
 

benhogan

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Granted the Cs are and were a heck of a lot closer to title contention than the Sox are, but let's not pretend all Stevens did was wait for his pieces to mature - he made bold moves. To be clear, I think Breslow will too - and Crochet is one (so was Sale for Grissom and Verdugo for Fitts). Hopefully there are more.
Agree with most of what you wrote but small quibble...when Brad took over the Celtics, they were coming off a .500 season and First-round ass whooping (& 16 teams make the NBA playoffs). Plenty were screaming to deal Brown for GFIN players, not trade Kemba's 20ppg, & the team was being "cheap" by not resigning Gordon Hayward. "Where else can they spend that $$$?" was a common refrain in regards to Gordo.

What he didn't do was spend every last penny for UFA, guys on the downside of their careers, or trade for a "better fit" 30-year-old All-Star Center (watching Gobert navigate the floor last night for the Wolves made me grateful for Brad)

People forget now but he shortened contract exposure in the Kemba/Horford swap. He has also developed guys like Pritchard & Hauser. Got Smart out of the way of White. And after 2 years, when he needed to GFIN he went after KP/Jrue.

The Sox aren't in GFIN mode right this minute but they may be there by July? Why not hold back some financial powder for a hitter (Bregman) until we see what we have in Campbell, Anthony, Mayer, Grissom, etc?
 
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YTF

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Wait, I thought this was the year. If it is not why on Earth sign Beuhler for 1 season. Same with Chapman, we already have Giolito and Hendricks for only one more year. Next year free agents class is weak. The Yankees or Mets will assuredly be happy to pay more than Boston will for Vlad. Heck, I am not confident that Henry will ok spending the coin to sign Crochet, Houck. or Bello enough money to keep them together for 2026 to 2030. With the right additions we have a legit shot this year. Always being a year away or in a bridge half decade is crap and the Sox have strung us along on the promise of going for it last year and this year. They have not delivered on the promises made to us. Adding Crochet is a nice step, heck we may be a wildcard team provided the kids come through and a closer emerges. Right now, if those two things do not happen the team will not succeed, Bregman, Arrenado or Santander along with either Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates really improve our chances. I think we can add a better catcher by the trade deadline if need be. If we can grab one not, even better
I'm curious about the bolded. Going on the assumption that Henry OKed the cost to bring Crochet in, why are you not confident that he will spend to keep him? Also. FWIW Bello was extended this past season through '29 with a player option for '30.
 

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You can't just go to the free agent store and buy a hitter. The right player at the right position has to be available. There was one position player who was a guaranteed upgrade over who's already in the organization now, Juan Soto. Everyone else is a maybe who could turn up being the wrong answer you're stuck with for years.

Bregman probably will outhit Grissom and Yoshida, one of whom he'd displace, but it's easy to see that not happening. Especially over the next 5 years.

Teoscar is probably an upgrade in 2025 over Campbell or Anthony, but it's possible he isn't, and probably won't be in years 2 and 3.

Alonso's position is filled by a guy who's already a better hitter than he is.

I just don't see the obvious places the team should be spending money on the lineup or the rotation as they stand now. If they have some cash burning a hole in their pocket, throw it at the bullpen.
I agree with this perspective, but I've never been a fan of spending just to say you spent.
We know that relievers are often unpredictable, but sure, sign one more guy. I love Yates, but he's heading into his year 38 season. I'd probably rather have Martin back on a one year than Yates on multiple years. Hoffman certainly seems to have taken a leap since going to Philly, but was pretty average before that. As long as this is sustainable, maybe he's the guy, if you can get him for 3 years. Scott is another lefty, but he doesn't have a big split, so maybe depending on the number of years.

Unless they have a trade lined up for Abreu, which I still think is possible, I'm fine getting one more good reliever and calling it an offseason.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Agree with most of what you wrote but small quibble...when Brad took over the Celtics, they were coming off a .500 season and First-round ass whooping (& 16 teams make the NBA playoffs). Plenty were screaming to deal Brown for GFIN players. What he didn't do was spend every last penny for a flashy UFA or trade for a "better fit" 30-year-old All-Star Center (watching Gobert navigate the floor last night for the Wolves made me grateful for Brad)

People forget now but he shortened contract exposure in the Kemba/Horford swap. He has also developed guys like Pritchard & Hauser. Got Smart out of the way of White. And after 2 years, when he needed to GFIN he went after KP/Jrue.

The Sox aren't in GFIN mode right this minute but they may be there by July? Why not hold back some financial powder for a hitter (Bregman) until we see what we have in Campbell, Anthony, Grissom, etc?
Sure, but he also was willing to give up a pick to get it done (16th in the first round). To get away from the Cs and back to the Sox, tangentially at least, I think the bigger point is that most people (I think) that want changes made aren't set one one particular player (I happen to like Bregman, but I do understand that he'd almost certainly be a horrible contract for at least the 5th and 6th years of any possible deal). We'd like to see something changed to address issues that haven't worked in several years (ie the Kemba for Horford swap) and would be fine with that.

In speaking for myself - maybe that means a deal for Arenado. Maybe that means a "Derek White" type deal for someone like Spencer Steer (just throwing a name out there). Maybe it's Suzuki (though I think our OF is much better shape than any other single area of the roster). There are (and were) a ton of options going into the off-season. We'd like to see one of them made.


As to the bolded specifically, I've said (too many times for some people) that I'd be fine with a line up that includes Anthony in LF, Campbell at 3b, Grissom/Hamilton at 2b and doesn't get rid of Devers or Casas. I'd have literally zero problems with that. What I am entirely against is the idea of trying essentially the same thing for the third season and expecting different results.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Where do you find a list of FA's that will hit after '25? I know there's a possibility some of them may be signed to extensions before the end of the upcoming season but it'd be a decent place to look for mid-season upgrade potential if the Sox are in contention.
I still think last season Breslow missed a golden opportunity to go for it (totally understandable if people disagree and don't want to get into that discussion here) but similarly to last season, if the Sox are in the WC hunt the path to "going for it" at the deadline should be clearer with a trade.
Obvious midseason likely weaknesses that could be addressed if the team is on the edges of contention would likely be bullpen (something better than the slop from last year) and a RHH platoon guy that beats the snot out of lefties.
I don't totally think the Sox really NEED those right now. I'm probably in the minority but I think the team is top 3 in the AL right now- due to some regression by the Yankees, Astros and Orioles- but I see the team as already 4-6 wins better than last season, not even figuring in what Campbell could bring (and he's likely a better RHH going forward than some of those additions).
 

YTF

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I’m with you. Feels like smoke and mirrors this offseason. Again. Crochet is nice, but if not extended, and we aren’t adding a couple more significant players, i can foresee my agita when we‘ve lost that human capital and have to do it all over again next year. Aren’t all but one of next year‘s FA pitching crop 30 years or older? So, again, we’ll be looking for reclamation projects, recovering TJs, and hoping third choices fall to pillow contracts.

The offseason is still ‘off,‘ and there’s time, I guess, but we’ve spent 11th[?] so far, and the teams that we need to overcome have been more daring and proactive. We’re here endlessly debating Bregman and the team hasn’t even made an offer? Perhaps I could deal with the frustration and paucity of activity if we seemed more proactive. Walker may be fantastic this year, but he still doesn’t feel like a ‘first choice.’ Whoever we get as a RH bat won’t feel like a first choice. Narvaez at C2 doesn’t feel like a first choice.

We have young talent that is very young, and who knows whether they'll see major time in ‘25, and even so, they’ll be but rookies. So, if the ’window’ isn’t now, then when? How much seasoning does a roster with so much youth need to be considered contenders?
Breslow has been the team's CBO for all of 14 months. In that time we've seen a drastic turn around in organizational pitching depth. The club has one of the highest rated farm systems in the league with players who have already impacted the 26 man roster (Duran, Abreu, Bello) and others positioned to do so in the near future. If we're looking for Anthony, Campbell and Mayer to be the players that we hope they can be, then the approach to free agency has to make sense for the roster as currently constructed and for how the team expects it to be constructed in the very near future.

"Aren't all but one of next year‘s FA pitching crop 30 years or older?" Isn't this the case most every year? Breslow and Co. took a very proactive course by trying to not be just another team bidding for pitchers "on the wrong side of 30" and being saddled with the bad back end of a contract for the privilege of getting the first 3-4 years. And if Walker (or any other player for that matter) turns out to be fantastic, does it matter that he wasn't a "first choice"?
 

benhogan

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As to the bolded specifically, I've said (too many times for some people) that I'd be fine with a line up that includes Anthony in LF, Campbell at 3b, Grissom/Hamilton at 2b and doesn't get rid of Devers or Casas. I'd have literally zero problems with that. What I am entirely against is the idea of trying essentially the same thing for the third season and expecting different results.
+1...This is a great plan. Giving younger players PT to see if they have improved is not doing nothing.

They added a #1/2 (Crochet) + a #4/5 (Buehler). Adding top-end starting pitching is the most efficient way to immediately improve a roster IMHO. They also added arms for the pen and in AAA because a modern-day pitching staff is more than what is on the major league roster. It looks like they are trying to move Masa and avoid the Trevor Story-types (the category Bregman falls under).

One of Brad's most underrated/brilliant moves was not bringing back Gordon Hayward or Evan Fournier & using that financial flexibility (TPE) to fill in around the JAYs. Maybe it's me, but I see a bunch of young, core Red Sox players that are JAY-like in Duran, Devers, Crochet, Houck, Anthony, Campbell, Abreau, Bello, etc
 

simplicio

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Am I the only one that doesn't find comparisons to other sports remotely instructive to baseball?
 

OCab44

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Wait, I thought this was the year. If it is not why on Earth sign Beuhler for 1 season. Same with Chapman, we already have Giolito and Hendricks for only one more year. Next year free agents class is weak. The Yankees or Mets will assuredly be happy to pay more than Boston will for Vlad. Heck, I am not confident that Henry will ok spending the coin to sign Crochet, Houck. or Bello enough money to keep them together for 2026 to 2030. With the right additions we have a legit shot this year. Always being a year away or in a bridge half decade is crap and the Sox have strung us along on the promise of going for it last year and this year. They have not delivered on the promises made to us. Adding Crochet is a nice step, heck we may be a wildcard team provided the kids come through and a closer emerges. Right now, if those two things do not happen the team will not succeed, Bregman, Arrenado or Santander along with either Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates really improve our chances. I think we can add a better catcher by the trade deadline if need be. If we can grab one not, even better
Sox can definitely make a run this year, but Bregman's gonna get 5 or 6 years. Gonna be a bloated infield with slow base runners in a few years. Devers, Casas, BREGMAN, Story.

I'm thinking Mayer + Campbell in 2 years, why block them? Although I'm also okay with trading any of Casas, Mayer and maybe even Campbell for the equivalent pitching prospect (like Teel, Montgomery for Crochet move)
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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+1...This is a great plan. Giving younger players PT to see if they have improved is not doing nothing.

They added a #1/2 (Crochet) + a #4/5 (Buehler). Adding top-end starting pitching is the most efficient way to immediately improve a roster IMHO.
Hahaha. I wouldn't call it a "great" plan, but I think if a fan (or front office, or ownership group) is so against paying the bad 2/3 years at the end of a long contract to an established MLB player that they're willing to sacrifice the 3/4 good ones that generally come at the front of it, then it's a far better plan, probably for 2025 and certainly for 2026 and beyond than simply trying the same thing for the third straight season. (For the record, I get that the Story deal blows, and not signing Bregman types will keep them away from this type of deal. It was also prohibit them from signing deals like those to Keith Foulke, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, David Price and JD Martinez.)

Agreed on the pitching. That is why in my mind, if the Red Sox had done literally nothing at all besides making the Crochet trade, the off-season was getting a B- from me. They have been in desperate need of adding pitching to even the middle (and of course the top) of the rotation for going on 5 seasons now (however you want to count acquiring Pivetta, that was the last time the team made an actual move to possibly impact the medium term of the rotation).



To your point @YTF, while it's tough, I do think people need to stop putting any relevance whatsoever to things that Werner, Kennedy or anyone else from "ownership" say. I also can't believe they're dumb enough to keep saying it. There is only downside to them coming out and talking about things until they happen. I don't believe for one second that Speier pulled the "sign a $100m+ contract" out of thin air, I also don't believe they're going to sign one. However, and I made this point earlier in the off-season, it's certainly possible for the Red Sox to have an amazing off-season and spend very little additional money. In many ways, they've done it (Crochet).

But the over-promising of ownership (I'm drawing a distinction between FSRedbird and Baseball Ops) doesn't do anything beneficial.

I think it's fine (and instructive) to listen to Breslow. He genuinely seems to be able to talk about what the team needs and what he's trying to accomplish without simply inflating the helium for the balloon to eventually pop when no large moves are made. He's "delivered" on what he promised - trading future wins for current ones (Teel and Montgomery for Crochet). He's also going to add some kind of a right handed bat (and we'll see if I, or others) agree or disagree with the move when they happen. (Calling Minnesota and taking on Vaz for a bowl of clam chowder would technically be adding a RH bat).



Next year, ownership will come out and say they're going to spend. Breslow will say something more tempered. He's probably going to do a pretty good job AND the Red Sox will unlikely sign any large (in terms of full dollars, not just a high single season AAV) free agent contracts. Those things aren't mutually exclusive. But FSRedbird coming out and talking about the budget is only serving to make the moves Breslow does make (and I think they've been good) seem lackluster. You'd think they'd hire a PR person that would explain this to them.
 

benhogan

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It also prohibited them from signing deals like those to Keith Foulke, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, David Price and JD Martinez.)
The bolded were 2-3yr deals + a pillow contract (JD Matinez).
Lackey for 5yrs & Price had mixed results. I'm not going to get into a Flags Fly Forever vs. Shitty attitude vs. Cost to trade Price discussion since I more or less cut the Sox off after the Mookie trade.

It's rather telling that we have to go back 20+ years to find a decent (depending on how you view Price/Lackey) 4+ year FA contract for Boston
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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The bolded were 2-3yr deals + a pillow contract (JD Matinez).
Lackey for 5yrs & Price had mixed results. I'm not going to get into a Flags Fly Forever vs. Shitty attitude vs. Cost to trade Price discussion since I more or less cut the Sox off after the Mookie trade.

It's rather telling that we have to go back 20+ years to find a decent (depending on how you view Price/Lackey) 4+ year FA contract for Boston
Foulke was a 4yr deal that had a player option / buyout the 4th year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=2656882

Martinez got a 5yr deal. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I don't think of that as a pillow contract. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22584613/boston-red-sox-officially-sign-jd-martinez-5-year-deal-2022

Napoli, I'd totally forgotten was 2 years (Shane was 3).

The Red Sox haven't given out contract of more than 2 years to an MLB free agent since Trevor Story. They seem to be done with winning both top of the market deals and mid terms deals in free agency. I'm not saying if this is good or bad, but unless I'm missing someone, they have not given an MLB player a free agent contract of more than 2 seasons since the 2022-23 off-season and I think we all kind of agree that whether we want them to or not, it doesn't look like they're giving one to anybody this year (so 4 years now).

For what it's worth, I think JDM was a great contract.

I suppose I agree (overall) that what was spent in 2013 isn't really all that relevant. For better or worse, they've basically chosen to only "win a bid" in the short term FA market for established MLB talent. Again, I'm not saying if this is good or bad, simply looking at the "scoreboard" of what has happened.
 
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marcoscutaro

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I'm thinking Mayer + Campbell in 2 years, why block them? Although I'm also okay with trading any of Casas, Mayer and maybe even Campbell for the equivalent pitching prospect (like Teel, Montgomery for Crochet move)
What I wouldn’t give to never read major league players lumped in with prospects again. People have whatever the opposite of prospect fatigue is with Campbell and Anthony & Mayer, when they haven’t got a single major league plate appearance between them. And as far as trading for prospects goes, idk what this winter told you about getting equivalent value for a good young 1B with 4 years of control does for pitching, except a salary dump. I’m very firmly in the camp that you shouldn’t ever trade a major league player for a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP believer here).
 

benhogan

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Foulke was a 4yr deal that had a player option / buyout the 4th year. https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=2656882

Martinez got a 5yr deal. Maybe we're arguing semantics, but I don't think of that as a pillow contract. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22584613/boston-red-sox-officially-sign-jd-martinez-5-year-deal-2022

Napoli, I'd totally forgotten was 2 years (Shane was 3).

The Red Sox haven't given out contract of more than 2 years to an MLB free agent since Trevor Story. They seem to be done with winning both top of the market deals and mid terms deals in free agency. I'm not saying if this is good or bad, but unless I'm missing someone, they have not given an MLB player a free agent contract of more than 2 seasons since the 2022-23 off-season and I think we all kind of agree that whether we want them to or not, it doesn't look like they're giving one to anybody this year (so 4 years now).

For what it's worth, I think JDM was a great contract.

I suppose I agree (overall) that what was spent in 2013 isn't really all that relevant. For better or worse, they've basically chosen to only "win a bid" in the short term FA market for established MLB talent for nearly half a decade.
Sign me up for 2-3 yr deal like Shane, Napoli, Foulke (3yrs + $1.5M buyout) or even JDM's opt-out laden contract for Bregman.

Taking 3 'bad' backend years of a 7yr Bregman deal, right when these youngish Sox will be peaking, starts capping the Sox upside at the wrong time. I'd rather have the team bet on the younger players first few seasons of FA by buying them out.

Now if the Sox avoid that, over the next 6 months, then pitchforks & torches feel appropriate.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1685414
 

Fishy1

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What I wouldn’t give to never read major league players lumped in with prospects again. People have whatever the opposite of prospect fatigue is with Campbell and Anthony & Mayer, when they haven’t got a single major league plate appearance between them. And as far as trading for prospects goes, idk what this winter told you about getting equivalent value for a good young 1B with 4 years of control does for pitching, except a salary dump. I’m very firmly in the camp that you shouldn’t ever trade a major league player for a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP believer here).
Several people on this board have done the work of looking at what the hit rate is for prospects who've done what Campbell and Anthony have done at their respective ages. The Red Sox haven't had a prospect have the kind of success Campbell has in at least twenty years.

You can look into it yourself if you want.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Sign me up for 2-3 yr deal like Shane, Napoli, Foulke (3yrs + $1.5M buyout) or even JDM's opt-out laden contract for Bregman.

Taking 3 'bad' backend years of a 7yr Bregman deal, right when these youngish Sox will be peaking, starts capping the Sox upside at the wrong time. I'd rather have the team bet on the younger players first few seasons of FA by buying them out.

Now if the Sox avoid that, over the next 6 months, then pitchforks & torches feel appropriate.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1685414
Fair enough. I think we agree more than we disagree.

With deal inflation, I think something similar for Bregman (to JDM) would look more like 6years/$162m/$27m AAV but structuring that so that it's really something like front loading the first 3 years to be more like 3/$100m with an opt out after three (and 3/$62m left) or some such machination. Which I'd be more than fine with.

Either way, despite my wanting the player, I'm certainly not married to Bregman.

I'm married to the idea that going:
Duran - CF, Story - SS, Devers - 3b, Casas - 1b, Abreu - RF, Yoshida - DH, One year player / Anthony - LF, Wong - C, Grissom/Hamilton/Campbell - 2b would be a pretty big error (which is essentially what they've been doing). Just don't do the same thing again and expect different results.
 

OCD SS

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…Snip…

I'm married to the idea that going:
Duran - CF, Story - SS, Devers - 3b, Casas - 1b, Abreu - RF, Yoshida - DH, One year player / Anthony - LF, Wong - C, Grissom/Hamilton/Campbell - 2b would be a pretty big error (which is essentially what they've been doing). Just don't do the same thing again and expect different results.
So change for change’s sake?

I think you’re glossing over that we can expect growth and improvement from players under 25 (including the introduction of Anthony, Campbell, and possibly Mayer at the end of the season) as well as the improvements to the rotation.

Based on who’s left on the FA market, I think you have to figure out who’s a meaningful upgrade, and in the short-term that’s probably only Bergman… but we’ve been over why he doesn’t fit. I’m hoping for a creative trade to open things up on the roster.
 

Margo McCready

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How is this doing the same thing again and expecting different results when Anthony, Campbell, Casas, Story and Grissom are presumably available to put in the lineup this year when last year it was entirely out of the question for the two former while the three latter missed the vast majority of the season with injuries? Granted, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility any and all of these players could get hurt and be unavailable again in 2025, but isn’t that also just as true for Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith and Muncy?
 

BaseballJones

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If Boston's approach was to not care about attaching a player's on-field status to his contract, they could absorb an expensive six-year deal for Bregman.

He plays the next 2-3 years and then is in enough decline, and the young guys are now good enough to be stars on their own, and so Bregman gets relegated to being a really expensive, but somewhat versatile, bench player. I bet he could even handle 1b if he tried, because he's overall a good athlete and defensive player in general. He'd be a RH hitting super sub.

Now that's not what you want to pay a guy 30 million dollars for, but since they'd have so many inexpensive young guys on the roster, they probably could absorb that kind of contract if they were willing to do it.

I doubt they are. Nor am I saying they should. I'm just saying they *could*.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Brad also did stuff that many of us want the Sox to do, such as getting "rid of the older crap" for "older crap" that fit a lot better. Kemba was traded for Horford, and remember what people in the NBA thought of his contract at the time. He also didn't simply hoard all of his "they're good but not great" players, but instead he traded them for better fits - even with risks (Smart for Porzingis, Brogdon and Williams for J'rue). He also had no qualms extending those pieces once they got here.

Nobody here has advocated at all getting rid of the "Tatum and Brown" pieces to the roster (and lets just call them Anthony and I dunno, Crochet now, maybe Casas if someone really likes him). We're advocating being willing to make the lose in terms of value trade and package three $5s for a $10 (because nobody is going to give you a $20 for four $5s) and to find those Kemba for Horford deals that fit better into the roster around what the pieces which you are building.

Granted the Cs are and were a heck of a lot closer to title contention than the Sox are, but let's not pretend all Stevens did was wait for his pieces to mature - he made bold moves. To be clear, I think Breslow will too - and Crochet is one (so was Sale for Grissom and Verdugo for Fitts). Hopefully there are more.
I think the "better fit[ts]" moves have been a strong suit of Breslow over Bloom.

I do fear that he will still settle into the Bloom approach of not fully executing a plan. He could have pushed harder during the trade deadline and I fear that we will enter the season in need of Right Handed Power and another arm in the bullpen. With that said, it's hard to argue with the offseason thus far.


Save yourself the worry about three things:

1) No chance they're landing Kyle Tucker or Vladdy Jr next year. Players like that are going to be won by the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees or maybe Philly. Sox will be in - and make a hell of an effort (Soto) and eventually be outbid by someone that has no budget limitations whatsoever.

2) No chance they're landing Cease, Gallen or Framber. Possibly some of us need more data to show that they're not going to ultimately land top of the market FA pitchers with a bulk of the contract going over the age of 30, but you'll save yourself a lot of angst realizing that there is a less than 5% chance of those type of FAs ending up in Boston on long term deals.

3) They're also going to extend Crochet. Just like their past actions are a really good indicator they're not signing a FA top of the market SP, their past actions indicate VERY STRONGLY they're going to extend those they've traded for.
I think you are correct on all fronts here. I hope you're not.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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So change for change’s sake?

I think you’re glossing over that we can expect growth and improvement from players under 25 (including the introduction of Anthony, Campbell, and possibly Mayer at the end of the season) as well as the improvements to the rotation.

Based on who’s left on the FA market, I think you have to figure out who’s a meaningful upgrade, and in the short-term that’s probably only Bergman… but we’ve been over why he doesn’t fit. I’m hoping for a creative trade to open things up on the roster.
I don't know if I'd refer to it as "change for change's sake." It's not like I want to move on from Duran for someone new in CF or Abreu for someone new in RF. Realistically, not Casas at 1b either. Those things work.

I don't think the combination of current projected line up + current defensive infield alignment are good enough. You either need some major additions to the line up (beyond Campbell and Anthony) or you need to fix the infield defense. To me, the Red Sox line up is a lot like one of those extremely complicated Rube Goldberg machines. In theory, if every single thing goes according to plan, yes, it will work. But it's a 9 step procedure where 3 steps would be a lot more efficient and have less chance to go horribly wrong.

I also don't disagree with the bolded. The only Red Sox "regular" that will be under the age of 25 is Vaughn Grissom - maybe Rafaela depending on how he's classified.

Ages next year: Wong - 29; Casas - 25; Hamilton - 27; Gonzalez - 28; Grissom -24; Devers - 28; Story - 32; Duran - 28; Abreu - 26; Yoshida -31. I'm already plain old expecting Casas to "replace" O'Neill in terms of production, FWIW. But thereis one player in there under 25, Grissom (and I DO expect improvement and growth from him). Rafaela, I think it's possible to get improvement from, but I think he needs to be hitting MLB pitching every day to get it.

For what it's worth, I'd totally agree with the "under 25 improvement idea" if the plan were (in baseball order, ie 2-9) Wong, Casas, Grissom, Rafaela, Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Devers. I'm totally good with that - it's not the same thing and expecting different results.

How is this doing the same thing again and expecting different results when Anthony, Campbell, Casas, Story and Grissom are presumably available to put in the lineup this year when last year it was entirely out of the question for the two former while the three latter missed the vast majority of the season with injuries? Granted, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility any and all of these players could get hurt and be unavailable again in 2025, but isn’t that also just as true for Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Smith and Muncy?
I guess this is a difference of opinion. Yes, any player can get hurt at any time. Sure. There are some guys that - for whatever reason - seem to miss more games than others. Trevor Story. Carlos Correa. Marcelo Mayer. Royce Lewis. Byron Buxton. Old fried Jacoby Ellsbury. Tyler Glasnow. It's not just the Red Sox, and I'm not saying that it is. But the Red Sox are set up so that if any of those things go wrong, they're in a crap load of trouble. Or, put another way, I don't think the idea of depending on Story to fix the infield defense is sound. I just plain old don't think what they have is good enough.

I think the "better fit[ts]" moves have been a strong suit of Breslow over Bloom.

I do fear that he will still settle into the Bloom approach of not fully executing a plan. He could have pushed harder during the trade deadline and I fear that we will enter the season in need of Right Handed Power and another arm in the bullpen. With that said, it's hard to argue with the offseason thus far.



I think you are correct on all fronts here. I hope you're not.
Why don't you want to extend Crochet?!?! (That's a joke).
 
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chrisfont9

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Wait, I thought this was the year. If it is not why on Earth sign Beuhler for 1 season.
Because he needs a prove-it deal, and if he proves it in Boston, you have the inside track on an extension. And while the ceiling might not be all the way up this year, it’s a year to make some noise, make the playoffs, and position everybody for a multi-season championship window. So bring him in and if it works, he and other pitchers will see Boston as a destination again.
 

Max Power

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I don't know if I'd refer to it as "change for change's sake." It's not like I want to move on from Duran for someone new in CF or Abreu for someone new in RF. Those things work.

I don't think the combination of current projected line up + current defensive infield alignment are good enough. You either need some major additions to the line up (beyond Campbell and Anthony) or you need to fix the infield defense. To me, the Red Sox line up is a lot like one of those extremely complicated Rube Goldberg machines. In theory, if every single thing goes according to plan, yes, it will work. But it's a 9 step procedure where 3 steps would be a lot more efficient and have less chance to go horribly wrong.

I also don't disagree with the bolded. The only Red Sox "regular" that will be under the age of 25 is Vaughn Grissom - maybe Rafaela depending on how he's classified.

Ages next year: Wong - 29; Casas - 25; Hamilton - 27; Gonzalez - 28; Grissom -24; Devers - 28; Story - 32; Duran - 28; Abreu - 26; Yoshida -31. I'm already plain old expecting Casas to "replace" O'Neill in terms of production, FWIW. But thereis one player in there under 25, Grissom (and I DO expect improvement and growth from him). Rafaela, I think it's possible to get improvement from, but I think he needs to be hitting MLB pitching every day to get it.

For what it's worth, I'd totally agree with the "under 25 improvement idea" if the plan were (in baseball order, ie 2-9) Wong, Casas, Grissom, Rafaela, Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Devers. I'm totally good with that - it's not the same thing and expecting different results.
Teams get better performances due to better health luck and improvement in players that aren't under 25 all the time. The 2023 Rangers must have been stupid to expect a different result when they ran back the same lineup that won 68 games in 2022. Then they won 90 games and the World Series with the only under 25 addition being Josh Jung. The Red Sox have a lot of talent already on the roster and running it back has just as good a chance of succeeding as bringing in the different flawed players who are available now.
 

jon abbey

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The 2023 Rangers must have been stupid to expect a different result when they ran back the same lineup that won 68 games in 2022. Then they won 90 games and the World Series with the only under 25 addition being Josh Jung.
Evan Carter came up late in the season and was huge for them, he was only 20. He hit 3rd for them in the postseason and had a .917 OPS, they don't make the postseason without him (they barely made it with him).