Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat

[ElcaballitoMVP]

While Kim is certainly better than Solano, he's also not healthy and won't be able to play until a month or two into the season. It's entirely possible that by the time he's ready to play, there won't be a spot for him to take because one or more of Campbell, Grissom, Romy, Rafaela, and Hamilton have locked themselves into the 26-man roster with their play.

This is exactly why you'd be able to get a guy like Kim on a reasonable deal. When he does get healthy, he can play 3B, shifting Devers to DH and you improve your defense. He'd also be a nice insurance policy at 2B in case Campbell isn't ready and Grissom doesn't produce as we hope he will. And he can play a very good SS if/when Story gets hurt. To me, he makes a lot of sense due to that defensive versatility, provided he's willing to sign a 1 year deal that allows him to get healthy and find his big payday next offseason. If he wants a longer deal, I'd be less interested.

But I understand where you guys are coming from, it's a perfectly reasonable take. I'd just prefer Kim over Solano if we are talking about a 1 year deal. To me, Solano doesn't bring a lot to the table. He doesn't hit for power, his defense is pretty limited at this stage in his career and I don't see a lot of upside in his age 37 season. While he's a better hitter against RHP over Romy, I don't see how he gets into the lineup over the in-house options (Devers, Casas, Campbell/Grissom/Hamilton, Yoshida). But I can see Kim getting into the lineup at 3B, pushing Devers to DH and Yoshida to the bench.

 

[chrisfont9]

Speier on BlueSky

Sounds like Campbell and Anthony aren't expected to break with the big club then? Not without a subtraction trade, which he largely shot down.

 

[E5 Yaz]

From Breslow's zoom call just now:
https://bsky.app/profile/alexspeier.bsky.social/post/3lek4ogrr7c2e
Breslow: “Raffy is our third baseman.”

Yep ... right up until the point when he isn't.
There's zero upside for Breslow to say anything to the contrary. If he says they're thinking of moving him off third, the price for Bregman or return for Arenado (for example) goes up. It also would impact the trade value of Casas or Yoshida, since Devers would have top move to one of their spots and other teams would know they're in a bind.
Upshot is, nothing any GM says at any time to the media should be taken as an absolute

 

[simplicio]

Sounds like Campbell and Anthony aren't expected to break with the big club then? Not without a subtraction trade, which he largely shot down.

Did he? He mentioned Casas specifically, but I didn't see anything taking Abreu off the table for instance.

 

[radsoxfan]

To be clear, my only interest in Bregman is as a 3B then moving Devers to DH a little sooner than he is going to anyway. And at a good price if his market dries up.

If he is being signed for 2nd base or we have to outbid someone and pay him anything close to 200M, I would definitely be out. Just let Grissom and Campbell battle it out in the spring at 2nd.

 

[Rasputin]

Sounds like Campbell and Anthony aren't expected to break with the big club then? Not without a subtraction trade, which he largely shot down.

They've had a month above AA. We should not expect them to be ready for opening day.

 

[ted lepcio]

The RS need to think in terms of more than one year. Playing the "kids" is a better approach, because the RS need to have a multi-year approach. I would start Grissom at the first of the year, and keep Anthony and Campbell at AAA. If Grissom falters, bring up Campbell. If Campbell does well With the Woosox, then you have a future decision to make, but you will also have the chance to more fully evaluate the choice between the two, make a possible position change for Campbell, and maintain flexibility for future trade chips. If you choose Campbell, you have flexibility with Grissom, who may also be a trade chip of value.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Sounds like Campbell and Anthony aren't expected to break with the big club then? Not without a subtraction trade, which he largely shot down.

Even with the roster as-is, there's room for both Campbell and Anthony to make the opening day roster.

C: Wong/backup
1B: Casas
2B: Grissom or Campbell - or Hamilton if Grissom/Campbell need time in AAA following spring training.
SS: Story
3B: Devers
LF: Anthony or Campbell - likely only Campbell here if both he and Grissom have good springs, and Anthony is not ready. Otherwise, Duran
CF: Duran, or Rafaela if Duran is needed in LF
RF: Abreu
DH: Yoshida

 

[TomRicardo]

Are you advocating to not try and improve the offense. We lost our top hr hitter, we got what may be a career year from Duran. We have yet to see if Abreu can hit lefties, what is yhe over/under on 100 games from Stoey and even if he plays can he hit? Same for Grissom IMO.

To giving Bregman a five to six year contract? Yes, I would leave that alone. If it was something like Teoscar's contract with the Dodgers, 3 years 65-70 million, that would have worked.

Bregman on a Trevor Story contract would be a killer.

 

[simplicio]

They've had a month above AA. We should not expect them to be ready for opening day.

I think it can be a very realistic possibility without being an expectation. Devers had 9 games at AAA. Anthony and Campbell have both already done more than that and don't seem particularly challenged by the level. Does Anthony need to stay down for another 11 games to exceed Mookie's 45 game total before he's ready?

 

[chrisfont9]

Even with the roster as-is, there's room for both Campbell and Anthony to make the opening day roster.

C: Wong/backup
1B: Casas
2B: Grissom or Campbell - or Hamilton if Grissom/Campbell need time in AAA following spring training.
SS: Story
3B: Devers
LF: Anthony or Campbell - likely only Campbell here if both he and Grissom have good springs, and Anthony is not ready. Otherwise, Duran
CF: Duran, or Rafaela if Duran is needed in LF
RF: Abreu
DH: Yoshida

Right, but add a RH bat (per the Bres quote) and the squeeze is on.

They've had a month above AA. We should not expect them to be ready for opening day.

That has been my guess too.

 

[Rasputin]

I think it can be a very realistic possibility without being an expectation. Devers had 9 games at AAA. Anthony and Campbell have both already done more than that and don't seem particularly challenged by the level. Does Anthony need to stay down for another 11 games to exceed Mookie's 45 game total before he's ready?

Possibility? Sure, and they should be given a real chance to win a job in spring training. We just shouldn't count on them being ready to go on opening day.

 

[Cassvt2023]

To giving Bregman a five to six year contract? Yes, I would leave that alone. If it was something like Teoscar's contract with the Dodgers, 3 years 65-70 million, that would have worked.

Bregman on a Trevor Story contract would be a killer.

It's nice to agree so wholeheartedly with @TomRicardo on something!

 

[nvalvo]

I suppose the response to that is "if Yoshida can have his hot stretches last full seasons he'd be a great DH". So sure, yes. But I if Jackie Bradley Jr could have had his hot stretches last full seasons he'd have been Ken Griffey Jr.

It’s a fair critique. But the difference is that Yoshida was that guy for years for Orix, and then for a three month stretch in 2023 and a two month stretch in 2024.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

It’s a fair critique. But the difference is that Yoshida was that guy for years for Orix, and then for a three month stretch in 2023 and a two month stretch in 2024.

JBJr was a 137 wRC+ hitter at 23 in AAA and a 150 wRC+ hitter at 25 in AAA. Hitting in MLB is much different than any league at any level on the planet.

Either way, Yoshida is being paid $19m to be the Boston Red Sox DH 60% of the time for the next 3 years. Really hope extrapolating from small sample sizes works to the Sox advantage.

 

[BringBackMo]

Yep ... right up until the point when he isn't.
There's zero upside for Breslow to say anything to the contrary. If he says they're thinking of moving him off third, the price for Bregman or return for Arenado (for example) goes up. It also would impact the trade value of Casas or Yoshida, since Devers would have top move to one of their spots and other teams would know they're in a bind.
Upshot is, nothing any GM says at any time to the media should be taken as an absolute

It’s ludicrous to believe that Bregman is publicly saying these things, on multiple occasions, about his best player, with an eye toward working backroom deals that would move him off his position, and enrage/humiliate Devers and damage Breslow’s credibility. It will not happen. What percentage chance do you put on Devers *not* being the Red Sox shortstop next year?

 

[E5 Yaz]

It’s ludicrous to believe that Bregman is publicly saying these things, on multiple occasions, about his best player, with an eye toward working backroom deals that would move him off his position, and enrage/humiliate Devers and damage Breslow’s credibility. It will not happen. What percentage chance do you put on Devers *not* being the Red Sox shortstop next year?

How do you know talks with Devers haven't happened?
And I'd say there's no chance Devers is the shortstop next year

 

[BringBackMo]

How do you know talks with Devers haven't happened?
And I'd say there's no chance Devers is the shortstop next year

My bad. Third baseman. His agent has said he is playing third. Cora and Breslow said two weeks ago there have been no discussions about moving him off his position. Breslow said today he is the team’s third baseman. He’s going to play third base for the Sox this year.

 

[OCD SS]

That would be a bridge too far…

 

[RobertsSteal]

I’d rather see a year where the kids (Campbell or Mayer, mostly, since we are talking about an IF’r) struggle to justify their roster spots than see Bregman struggle to justify his (far more expensive) spot in, say, 2028-2030.

Let’s see what the kids have got.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/tjstats/status/1873870780993593696?s=46


I still feel very strongly this team needs another impact bat. We aren’t going to her best case outcomes from all of Casas, Story, Yoshida, Ceddane, Campbell, Anthony and Vaughn.

 

[jon abbey]

To be clear, that is just another regurgitation of those same Fangraphs numbers, garbage in garbage out as they used to say.

 

[Cassvt2023]

To be clear, that is just another regurgitation of those same Fangraphs numbers, garbage in garbage out as they used to say.

if you’re referring to projected 2025 wRC+ above, I couldn’t agree more. Enough wi th the silly projections in December.

 

[YTF]

Realistically speaking, if there are minimal changes to the offense and we give the kids a few months in AAA, we'd still be looking at lineups like this in June (batting order probably isn't optimized):

vs. RHP
1. Duran - CF
2. Devers - 3B
3. Yoshida - DH
4. Story - SS
5. Casas - 1B
6. Anthony - LF
7. Campbell - 2B
8. Abreu - RF
9. Wong - C

vs. LHP
1. Duran - CF
2. Devers - DH
3. Refsnyder - LF
4. Story - SS
5. Campbell - 3B
6. Wong - C
7. R. Gonzalez - 1B
8. Rafaela - RF
9. Hamilton / Grissom - 2B

Realistically speaking, Casas isn't going to be part of a platoon.

 

[radsoxfan]

I still feel very strongly this team needs another impact bat. We aren’t going to her best case outcomes from all of Casas, Story, Yoshida, Ceddane, Campbell, Anthony and Vaughn.

Agreed.

I'm surprised how many people want to go with the status quo +/- some minimal tinkering.

I don't think anyone wants reckless spending (I was against Soto at those #s for sure), but sticking with what we've got is going to require a lot of things to break right. Not sure a big market team should be in that situation year after year.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Agreed.

I'm surprised how many people want to go with the status quo +/- some minimal tinkering.

I don't think anyone wants reckless spending (I was against Soto at those #s for sure), but sticking with what we've got is going to require a lot of things to break right. Not sure a big market team should be in that situation year after year.

Also strongly agree. But with the acceptance they’re not going to, I want as much money as necessary spent on a 2yr deal for Kirby Yates.

If they’re not going to improve the offense and they’re not going to improve the defense, then more run prevention via the pitching staff is absolutely necessary since as is the line up should be quite easy to navigate for opposing managers starting in about the 6th inning.

Far better control and far less traffic on the base paths than Tanner Scott. Should cost less total dollars than Jeff Hoffman.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Is a proven closer like Yates or Scott going to be interested in signing with a team where there isn’t a clear path to a ton of saves? Maybe, given their ages, but kinda feel like the plan at the end of games is Hendriks and Chapman, and Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Wilson, Winck before that and that the Sox aren’t going to be handing out any more big deals to relievers. Anything is possible, but feels like that pen is getting crowded.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Is a proven closer like Yates or Scott going to be interested in signing with a team where there isn’t a clear path to a ton of saves? Maybe, given their ages, but kinda feel like the plan at the end of games is Hendriks and Chapman, and Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Wilson, Winck before that and that the Sox aren’t going to be handing out any more big deals to relievers. Anything is possible, but feels like that pen is getting crowded.

It’s a fair question. But if we assume they have $27m left (ie not keeping Fulmer) and that they’re spending about $8m of it on “Yasmini Diaz-quez” that leaves about $19m left. Yates is gonna be 37 and has “only” made about $30m in his career and his most recent annual salaries were ~$7m (factoring in the buyout) from Atlanta and $4.5m from Texas.

If Boston offered him 2/$24m/$12m, leaving them safely below $LTT1 and essentially doubles his career earnings, I think he’d take it (and I think he’d be the first closer up, so to speak).

 

[simplicio]

I don't think there's a clear closer currently on the roster. Hendriks may be it but there's uncertainty coming off two missed years. Chapman's walk problems have been obvious and the reason he hasn't been a primary closer since 2021. The rest of the guys have never held the role. I think if you got Hoffman, Yates, Estevez or maybe even Robertson they could all have a realistic path to being the guy.

(I don't think Scott is realistically still in the picture, with Chapman filling our quota for lefties with nasty stuff and walk problems).

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Realistically speaking, Casas isn't going to be part of a platoon.

I agree, but he was at the end of the last year.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I agree, but he was at the end of the last year.

Casas hasn't been platooned since the first couple months of 2023.

 

[YTF]

I agree, but he was at the end of the last year.

I don't see what one has to do with the other, but OK.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I don't think there's a clear closer currently on the roster. Hendriks may be it but there's uncertainty coming off two missed years. Chapman's walk problems have been obvious and the reason he hasn't been a primary closer since 2021. The rest of the guys have never held the role. I think if you got Hoffman, Yates, Estevez or maybe even Robertson they could all have a realistic path to being the guy.

(I don't think Scott is realistically still in the picture, with Chapman filling our quota for lefties with nasty stuff and walk problems).

I have been advocating for Estevez for months now. Look at his track record an how his k% has remained and his bb% has come down over last season. And has closing experience. Should be less than Scott/Hoffman too.

 

[apc020420129]

Agreed.

I'm surprised how many people want to go with the status quo +/- some minimal tinkering.

I don't think anyone wants reckless spending (I was against Soto at those #s for sure), but sticking with what we've got is going to require a lot of things to break right. Not sure a big market team should be in that situation year after year.

Couldn’t agree with you more

 

[Harry Hooper]

His agent has said he is playing third. Cora and Breslow said two weeks ago there have been no discussions about moving him off his position. Breslow said today he is the team’s third baseman. He’s going to play third base for the Sox this year.

Per Boston.com, there's definitely some wiggle room in what Breslow said today:

“Raffy is our third baseman,” Breslow said. “He’s having a really productive offseason. Saw him a couple of weeks ago. Looks great. Feels great. “We’re really optimistic about what we’re going to get out of him. He’s talked about coming to Fort Myers early this year and really focusing on getting himself ready to have a great season.

“With that said, we’ll be open-minded and we’ll be creative in terms of how we put together the best roster, but as things stand right now, Raffy is our third baseman.”

Addendum: Turns out Starr in the Herald picked up on this:

On Monday Breslow signaled more of a willingness to move Rafael Devers off third base than previously expressed by the front office.
...
In the past, Breslow said the team wouldn’t consider moving Devers, who is the highest-paid player in franchise history, without discussing it with him first. At the MLB Winter Meetings earlier this month, manager Alex Cora said he could “guarantee” there had been no such discussions with Devers. Publicly stating a willingness to “be open-minded” implies the topic has been broached with the homegrown superstar.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

haha makes it read completely differently

“WITH THAT SAID” is one of my favorites

my money is on Raffy being a team player if something makes sense. Never seen anything from him that would indicate otherwise.

 

[radsoxfan]

haha makes it read completely differently

“WITH THAT SAID” is one of my favorites

my money is on Raffy being a team player if something makes sense. Never seen anything from him that would indicate otherwise.

Yeah, I'm not sure Breslow had to add in "as things stand right now" if there is a 0% chance Devers will be moved off 3B this year.

Probably leaving the door open for some small chance of a Bregman signing or Casas trade.

 

[benhogan]

(caveat, I'm not comparing the quality of players here)

Signing Bregman to a longish term deal for significant money just to "do something" and show commitment to spending for wins or whatever is reminiscent of the 2014-2015 off-season that netted the team Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Signing one of them was justifiable with a hole to fill at 3B. Signing both necessitated playing Hanley in LF (disastrously) then at 1B (less disastrous but still not great) just to fit the odd pieces together. Bregman is a square piece and if the team has a hole, it's round. Bringing him in necessitates a cascade of moves that likely involves some square pegs in round holes.

This ownership has burned through some coin on multi-year deals for the wrong players over 30.

I get why they are gun-shy.

 

[grimshaw]

(caveat, I'm not comparing the quality of players here)

Signing Bregman to a longish term deal for significant money just to "do something" and show commitment to spending for wins or whatever is reminiscent of the 2014-2015 off-season that netted the team Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Signing one of them was justifiable with a hole to fill at 3B. Signing both necessitated playing Hanley in LF (disastrously) then at 1B (less disastrous but still not great) just to fit the odd pieces together. Bregman is a square piece and if the team has a hole, it's round. Bringing him in necessitates a cascade of moves that likely involves some square pegs in round holes.

Missed this earlier. It's not a bad overall argument about the displacing side of things, but they probably thought Hanley's bat would almost surely hold up since he was moving down the defensive spectrum. Bregman has to worry less about his offense holding up since he is moving up the spectrum, the position is not brand new to him and he is better at baseball than Grissom.

The DH position/deep depth are the square pegs IMO.

 

[BringBackMo]

Per Boston.com, there's definitely some wiggle room in what Breslow said today:






Addendum: Turns out Starr in the Herald picked up on this:

OK, thank you for posting those quotes, which I had not seen. I agree that all of that sounds much less definitive than some of the other quotes that have been published quite recently.

 

[RIrooter09]

I think this team needs another impact bat to truly compete. Just stick Bregman at 2B and don’t worry about blocking Grissom or Rafaela.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

my money is on Raffy being a team player if something makes sense. Never seen anything from him that would indicate otherwise.

Mine too, and always has been.

I don’t want to go back and find the quotes, but though Dever’s isn’t typically a vocal leader, the times he’s chosen to be one has been about the lack of quality MLB players added to the organization at various intervals.

If Cora, Breslow (and David Ortiz), sat him down and explained that they had a way to bring in a solid (or better) MLB veteran to provide him the consistent presence around him in the line up that’s been missing since 2022, but would necessitate him moving off 3b, he’d be if not welcome to it, certainly open minded and accepting.

All of his recent quotes have been about him getting sick of the losing and sick of not making notable MLB additions. Crochet certainly fits the bill. I’d bet that if Devers were presented one of three choices by Breslow, 1) adding a notable MLB player to hit alongside him, but that player is a 3b, 2) bringing in another stop gap one year player like Canha, 3) doing essentially nothing to the line up, he’d choose 1.

I could of course be wrong, but to me it seems Devers is more sick of losing and not really even “trying” to win than he is closed minded about moving to another spot.

 

[OCD SS]

In that case the real question is whether or not JWH/ Ownership is sick of losing, enough so that they want to spend in the short-term, laying the groundwork for a 2018 style splurge.

 

[marcoscutaro]

Mine too, and always has been.

I don’t want to go back and find the quotes, but though Dever’s isn’t typically a vocal leader, the times he’s chosen to be one has been about the lack of quality MLB players added to the organization at various intervals.

If Cora, Breslow (and David Ortiz), sat him down and explained that they had a way to bring in a solid (or better) MLB veteran to provide him the consistent presence around him in the line up that’s been missing since 2022, but would necessitate him moving off 3b, he’d be if not welcome to it, certainly open minded and accepting.

All of his recent quotes have been about him getting sick of the losing and sick of not making notable MLB additions. Crochet certainly fits the bill. I’d bet that if Devers were presented one of three choices by Breslow, 1) adding a notable MLB player to hit alongside him, but that player is a 3b, 2) bringing in another stop gap one year player like Canha, 3) doing essentially nothing to the line up, he’d choose 1.

I could of course be wrong, but to me it seems Devers is more sick of losing and not really even “trying” to win than he is closed minded about moving to another spot.

Rafael Devers spoke out in spring training in February and said that he was glad they were trying to extend Casas and he looked forward to hitting with him in the lineup for a long time. Since we’re putting such weight on his words and all.

 

[bosox1534]

If you think the Red Sox have to add a bat, but you don’t want Bregman, you don’t want to block Campbell/Anthony, and you don’t want to give up more prospects, then I’m not sure what the Red Sox can do. I am in the boat that the lineup should pretty much be set as of now, while maybe adding another cheap RHH, and signing another reliever or two. But for those who don’t think the lineup is good enough as is, I’m curious what you think the move should be.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

If you think the Red Sox have to add a bat, but you don’t want Bregman, you don’t want to block Campbell/Anthony, and you don’t want to give up more prospects, then I’m not sure what the Red Sox can do. I am in the boat that the lineup should pretty much be set as of now, while maybe adding another cheap RHH, and signing another reliever or two. But for those who don’t think the lineup is good enough as is, I’m curious what you think the move should be.

Second or left field. Whichever one you go with Campbell plays the other. Rafaela to a sub role. Roman, Romy, and Vaughn in AAA providing actual big league depth.

The AAA positional roster is extremely thing right now. Having those three down there would be a big plus.

 

[BaseballJones]

Current potential lineup:

C - Wong
1b - Casas
2b - Grissom
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Duran
CF - Rafaela
RF - Abreu
DH - Yoshida/Refsnyder
Bench - Catcher (who though?), Campbell, Hamilton, Refsnyder
Coming up soon - Anthony, Mayer

LF Duran (L)
2b Grissom (R)
3b Devers (L)
1b Casas (L)
SS Story (R)
RF Abreu (L)
DH Yoshida (L) or Refsnyder (R)
C Wong (R)
CF Rafaela (R)

Not a lot of RH pop in there. But overall it's probably a pretty decent lineup, especially if Campbell emerges.

 

[bosockboy]

Current potential lineup:

C - Wong
1b - Casas
2b - Grissom
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Duran
CF - Rafaela
RF - Abreu
DH - Yoshida/Refsnyder
Bench - Catcher (who though?), Campbell, Hamilton, Refsnyder
Coming up soon - Anthony, Mayer

LF Duran (L)
2b Grissom (R)
3b Devers (L)
1b Casas (L)
SS Story (R)
RF Abreu (L)
DH Yoshida (L) or Refsnyder (R)
C Wong (R)
CF Rafaela (R)

Not a lot of RH pop in there. But overall it's probably a pretty decent lineup, especially if Campbell emerges.

Campbell won’t be on the bench. He’s hitting everyday somewhere.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Campbell won’t be on the bench. He’s hitting everyday somewhere.

Yes. They're not adding him to the 40-man to be a bench player. He'll be added if/when he's got a starting spot secured. Otherwise he'll be in Worcester playing every day.

 

[bosox1534]

Second or left field. Whichever one you go with Campbell plays the other. Rafaela to a sub role. Roman, Romy, and Vaughn in AAA providing actual big league depth.

The AAA positional roster is extremely thing right now. Having those three down there would be a big plus.

Not playing Grissom or Rafaela full time basically says those guys don’t have big roles in the future, and the sample sizes are small.