Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat

Do you want the Red Sox to Sign Alex Bregman

  • Yes

  • No


Results are only viewable after voting.

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
What’s the Venn diagram of people who maintain that Bregman is steep into his decline phase but also think that Story is going to bounce back and have a great year?

I think the answer here is like anything else, “it depends” on the potential terms of the deal. Seems like there are deals where Bregman clearly makes sense and clearly does not.

But it’s weird to me that many seem to have absolutely no interest in a guy who plays excellent defense, OPS+ of 115 year in and year out, and is three years younger than Rob Refsnyder.

I also don’t understood how a fan base that mocked the Yankees, and rightfully so, for not having Jeter move positions for A-Rod, act as if it’s an affront to the sport to suggest Devers should maybe not play third.
Story's injuries are healed so if he doesn't wreck himself some new way, he's a lock for 1.5 dWAR and may help settle down whoever is at 2b and 3b. 2 oWAR is probably his ceiling but I'm not betting on that number. I won't speculate about future injuries unless there is a known problem, which there was with his elbow but not now. Hope for the best.
 

chawson

Hoping for delivery
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
5,235
Bregman’s BABIP against lefties the past two years is barely over .200; quite possible that his relative struggles there are simply bad luck.
He does seem unlucky against lefties. His wOBA vs. LHP in 2023-24 is .306, much lower than his .337 expected wOBA. However, his production against RHP seems lucky by the same measure. His .356 wOBA in ‘23-24 is much higher than his .335 expected wOBA.

So, that .336 wOBA seems pretty equally applied to both left- and right-handed pitchers. It’s good.

My take is that he’s clearly a well above average player and those are good for the team. But the fit would require…

A) bumping Devers, Casas or Campbell down the defensive spectrum, negating a good chunk of the value of adding Bregman,

B) trading an extremely valuable player or prospect already on the team, hardly impossible but difficult to get a proper return for, or

C) dumping a well above-average hitter in Yoshida — a guy who hit better than Bregman last year (by expected wOBA) — for peanuts, an expensive move which also instantiates A by moving Devers to DH,

all of which means

D) signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a 26-year-old, top 5 hitter in the league, would be a lot harder and more expensive to pull off
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,715
I'd reiterate that catcher is a far easier (and more impactful) place to improve team defense, and it's not currently occupied by one of the game's most valuable players at the position.
I agree on the impact but I don’t think the path to upgrading catcher is easy at all. What makes you think it’s easier?
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,574
Profar had an .839 OPS in 2024.

Rob Refsnyder had an .830 OPS in 2024.

I get that if you want an everyday player Profar is better, but if we are just filling a niche against lefties, I'm not sure what difference we are getting from some big, roster-complicating contract.
You’re 100 percent correct. I don’t want either Bergman or Profar. I was trying—and failing—to slyly say that if we *have* to sign someone to prove that we’re serious, let’s make it the guy who’ll sign for half the years. I don’t actually want either of them.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,151
I agree on the impact but I don’t think the path to upgrading catcher is easy at all. What makes you think it’s easier?
Defensively? You get on the phone and sign Grandal or E. Diaz, or work a trade for Murphy or Vazquez or Y. Diaz. Defense improved, hole filled, nobody moved out of their position or sold for pennies.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,962
Defensively? You get on the phone and sign Grandal or E. Diaz, or work a trade for Murphy or Vazquez or Y. Diaz. Defense improved, hole filled, nobody moved out of their position or sold for pennies.
Devers' best position is DH. If he becomes a full-time DH he isn't being moved out of anything, he's being sent to his natural position. And hopefully he flourishes there.

The sooner people realize this, the sooner we can have a productive discussion about the next steps for this roster moving forward.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,151
No, it's not, and it doesn't become his best position so long as he remains one of the best 3B in the game. He's not a good enough hitter to be one of the best dedicated DH in the game.
 

TheDogMan

New Member
Oct 25, 2024
204
Connecticut
Yes. It's not my money. It's not like I suddenly won't be spending the most in the league on tickets if we don't get him. Spend what you need to and figure it out later. Stop hemorrhaging prospects every time you want to add an impact player. This division is so wide open now, it's time to go for it.
I voted yes. Sox would be better. If it would grease the skids to rid the Sox of the Yoshida error so much the better. If not hom then Santander. Sox need more pop playing in AL East. We all know that waiting a year for Vlad is stupid. Sox will be outbid by at least three other clubs. Heck, I would be ok with Alonso. He and Tristan can share dh and first base as a fall back.
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
96,478
Oregon
No, it's not, and it doesn't become his best position so long as he remains one of the best 3B in the game. He's not a good enough hitter to be one of the best dedicated DH in the game.
First of all, you know what he meant. His best defensive position is DH; it was pretty clear.
Next, we don't know what kind of hitter he'd be if he were only a DH. That theory hasn't been tested yet.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
8,534
No, it's not, and it doesn't become his best position so long as he remains one of the best 3B in the game. He's not a good enough hitter to be one of the best dedicated DH in the game.
I think you're a really smart poster but I can't disagree more. Devers bat is no doubt very good for a third baseman, but his glove is bad to awful. His bat would still be very good at DH, and we could benefit from better defense at third. We don't want to maximize Devers theoretical value, we want to maximize the team's performance.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
15,734
MLB 3B hit 242/308/393, while MLB DH hit 245/322/421.

Devers hit 272/354/516.

Those numbers seem well above the average 3b (+24%) and DH (+17%).

Devers 871 OPS ranked 13th in MLB. How is that not good enough for a full time DH?
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,962
No, it's not, and it doesn't become his best position so long as he remains one of the best 3B in the game. He's not a good enough hitter to be one of the best dedicated DH in the game.
This is not how building a team works. We don't care about his personal WAR.

We care about how many wins the team gets. Hopefully Breslow understands this.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
15,734
This is not how building a team works. We don't care about his personal WAR.

We care about how many wins the team gets. Hopefully Breslow understands this.
Yeah, this. I get the positional adjustment in terms of fWAR with a player moving to an easier position; but every team still has to play a 1b and dh…..so what’s really importance is the cumulative impact; if moving Devers costs him 2 fWAR but gains the team 3 fWAR it’s a a win…and acknowledging that fWAR’s aren’t even actual things.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,962
Yeah, this. I get the positional adjustment in terms of fWAR with a player moving to an easier position; but every team still has to play a 1b and dh…..so what’s really importance is the cumulative impact; if moving Devers costs him 2 fWAR but gains the team 3 fWAR it’s a a win…and acknowledging that fWAR’s aren’t even actual things.
He's also not likely to lose 2 WAR anyway. Probably 1, though if anything I expect his hitting to improve as a full time DH so it might not be much at all.

Once Devers doesn't have to flop around out there on D, eliminates some of the nagging injuries, and embraces his inner Ortiz....the team will be much better off (assuming we have someone else good to play 3B).

Edit:
Devers was 4.1 WAR last year and projects as a bad defensive 3B to be 4.2 this year.

Last year top DHs were:
Ohtani: 9.1 (of course not expecting this)
Ozuna: 4.7
Rocker: 4.5
Alvarez: 3.5 (in 94 games as DH)
Schwarber: 3.0

If Devers embraces the role I think he can definitely be in the non-Ohtani mix with those guys.
 
Last edited:

TheDogMan

New Member
Oct 25, 2024
204
Connecticut
The Red Sox were the 11th best offense in baseball in wRC+ and lost their third most valuable bat who only played 100 games. Right now they project to be a below average to average offense dropping about the same value they gained in pitching. 80-84 wins is where they are currently lining up. That said it is probably not best tying yourself to Bregman long term. Most likely thre best course of action to extend Crochet and work towards a competitive 2026 when Anthony and Campbell have 300 - 500 PA of MLB pitching experienced.
Are you advocating to not try and improve the offense. We lost our top hr hitter, we got what may be a career year from Duran. We have yet to see if Abreu can hit lefties, what is yhe over/under on 100 games from Stoey and even if he plays can he hit? Same for Grissom IMO.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
3,116
Honolulu HI
all of which means
D) signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a 26-year-old, top 5 hitter in the league, would be a lot harder and more expensive to pull off
I was with you until this point…
The Red Sox aren’t signing Vlad. He’s a horrific defender and will be looking for at least a ten year deal. You cannot carry two terrible defenders on expensive, long term deals. You just can’t. Both Devers and Vlad should be DHs already and both will need to be long before the end of those contracts.
If they want Vlad they would need to trade for him ASAP and that proposal would need to include Devers. Of course then you’d still have to move Casas (I doubt you have much chance of signing Vlad longterm if you relegate him to DH during a contract year). Hard to imagine them doing all that to risk everything on their chance of resigning the best hitter in next years free agent class.
 
Last edited:

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
75,064
Just because I was curious, I looked up Vlad and Kyle Tucker, both upcoming FAs. Tucker is 2 years older and has 23.0 career bWAR in 2561 PAs, a very good outfielder and baserunner. Vlad has 21.5 career in 3540 PAs, a bad defender and the single worst baserunner in MLB last year. I am glad the Yankees will not be involved in that bidding (and I assume he will end up a Met).
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
20,887
Henderson, NV
Is this is a thing? Do you mean for some strange Devers specific reason? Or because this has been proven to happen with lots of poor defensive players that shift to DH?

I would assume any Devers shift to primary DH would result in unchanged to improved offensive production. He seems to get plenty of nagging injuries over the course of the season, and that can only be improved if he's on the field less.
What’s the Venn diagram of people who maintain that Bregman is steep into his decline phase but also think that Story is going to bounce back and have a great year?

I think the answer here is like anything else, “it depends” on the potential terms of the deal. Seems like there are deals where Bregman clearly makes sense and clearly does not.

But it’s weird to me that many seem to have absolutely no interest in a guy who plays excellent defense, OPS+ of 115 year in and year out, and is three years younger than Rob Refsnyder.

I also don’t understood how a fan base that mocked the Yankees, and rightfully so, for not having Jeter move positions for A-Rod, act as if it’s an affront to the sport to suggest Devers should maybe not play third.
Devers' best position is DH. If he becomes a full-time DH he isn't being moved out of anything, he's being sent to his natural position. And hopefully he flourishes there.

The sooner people realize this, the sooner we can have a productive discussion about the next steps for this roster moving forward.
That's all fine and true, but Devers (or at least his agent) is on record as saying Devers is a 3B and has no interest in moving. Do you really want to piss off your best hitter? What happens to his production if he's forced off 3B against his wishes?

He is a third baseman,” Montes de Oca told Speier, “and he will continue to play third base and work hard to get better at it. That’s his position, that’s what he likes to play, and that’s what he will be playing.
We all know he sucks at 3B. Maybe they have a discussion to have him work harder at it so that he can stay there per his wishes. This isn't fantasy baseball or Strat-O-Matic where you can move the pieces around with impunity. These are human beings that are being dealt with, so it's not a simple plug-and-play situation. And it's not like they can add to his contract to get him to move or something.

Edit: And I think Bregman is a dick and don't want him on my team. He might provide some decent value for a couple of years, but he's not the kind of guy you give a ridiculous contract to. And I don't like losing the draft pick or especially the international bonus money, especially if there's a chance they can sign Sasaki.
 
Last edited:

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,962
The sooner Devers is off 3B the better. Perhaps it's a difficult conversation but he's already gotten his money so he should be willing to move if asked. It's not like he is trying to build up his value.

If I sucked at a portion of my job and someone told me I would get paid the same but I wouldn't have to do the thing I sucked at, I'd be pretty happy about it. Hopefully Devers can have a similar mindset.

As far as thinking Bregman is a dick.... I have a feeling you are not alone and that's (consciously or not) a reason some people are against him on the Red Sox. Seems like a flimsy reason to not want him on the team to me.
 

OldeBeanTowne

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
1,420
I'm still on Alonso if they are going to try to add a power RH bat, especially at 3-4 years for $90-105m or thereabouts. I think he can fit on the roster and, with some creative lineup management, cycle Alonso(DH)/Devers(3B)/Casas(1B) through the DH spot.

Yoshida is obviously the conundrum here, but, even as someone who has argued that Roman is someone to make room on the roster for, I think they could afford to have him start in AAA, if necessary, and keep Yoshida in LF primarily, with some DH, until the deadline.

With what is left on his contract at that point, based on performance, he could be a tradable asset should Anthony force his way into the lineup by then.

To end on a real crazy note, since everyone wants to move Devers to DH as much as possible, and I'm not saying this would be a defensive upgrade, but could Alonso play 2/3 games a game a week at DH, 1-2 at 1B, and 0-1 at 3B!?

Here's a quote of his from the before times:

"Yeah, I played third base in high school and I mean in college, my freshmen year I played a couple of games at third, and then eventually it just turned into we needed a first baseman, and I’m just a corner guy. I think I got a pretty good arm, I’ve got an arm that can be effective at third base and I know that, I know that I have a pretty good arm for a first baseman, and a lot of people told me that’s pretty rare to see. And for me, it’s just making that transition pretty easy, it’s just understanding the game from the first base position because it’s a totally different game."

https://metsminors.net/peter-alonso-talks-playing-third-base-and-first-pro-experience/

It's an eternity ago and he's not known for being a great first baseman, but I think he may actually be adequate every once in a while to maybe once a week. Again, this obviously isn't ideal, but I'd much rather contrive roster machinations around Alonso than Bregman.

Campbell/Grissom can compete for time at 2B, ideally with the ability to back up multiple positions.

CF Duran
2B Campbell
3B Devers
DH Alonso
1B Casas
RF Abreu
SS Story
LF Yoshida/Anthony
C Wong/Narvaez/+?

I think that is a potentially brutal lineup for pitchers. Ceddanne as super sub.

I also think catcher is the position they could seem to upgrade defensively with more options.

Anyway, I don't want Bregman for any number of reasons already mentioned, including not wanting to force Devers to DH full-time before they really need to, which I still think is say two years off while slowly transitioning over time in an ideal scenario.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,962
OMG.

Devers at 3B is bad enough.... now we're talking about Alonso filling in at 3B???

I actually was not particularly interested in Bregman at the start of FA. But if the price is less than expected I think he could be a good fit.

Alonso at 3B even once a week sounds like a disaster to me.
 

OldeBeanTowne

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
1,420
OMG.

Devers at 3B is bad enough.... now we're talking about Alonso filling in at 3B???

I actually was not particularly interested in Bregman at the start of FA. But if the price is less than expected I think he could be a good fit.

Alonso at 3B even once a week sounds like a disaster to me.
Haha. You're probably right. It might be fun though. Live a little. :banana: :drunk:
 

CKDexterHaven

New Member
Dec 19, 2023
57
If David Ortiz can be involved in trying to sell Soto on Boston for the betterment of the Sox, he can get involved with convincing Devers that being a DH isn‘t such a bad thing. Singular focus, better health, longevity… all muy bueno stuff.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I'm still on Alonso if they are going to try to add a power RH bat, especially at 3-4 years for $90-105m or thereabouts. I think he can fit on the roster and, with some creative lineup management, cycle Alonso(DH)/Devers(3B)/Casas(1B) through the DH spot.

Yoshida is obviously the conundrum here, but, even as someone who has argued that Roman is someone to make room on the roster for, I think they could afford to have him start in AAA, if necessary, and keep Yoshida in LF primarily, with some DH, until the deadline.

With what is left on his contract at that point, based on performance, he could be a tradable asset should Anthony force his way into the lineup by then.

To end on a real crazy note, since everyone wants to move Devers to DH as much as possible, and I'm not saying this would be a defensive upgrade, but could Alonso play 2/3 games a game a week at DH, 1-2 at 1B, and 0-1 at 3B!?

Here's a quote of his from the before times:

"Yeah, I played third base in high school and I mean in college, my freshmen year I played a couple of games at third, and then eventually it just turned into we needed a first baseman, and I’m just a corner guy. I think I got a pretty good arm, I’ve got an arm that can be effective at third base and I know that, I know that I have a pretty good arm for a first baseman, and a lot of people told me that’s pretty rare to see. And for me, it’s just making that transition pretty easy, it’s just understanding the game from the first base position because it’s a totally different game."

https://metsminors.net/peter-alonso-talks-playing-third-base-and-first-pro-experience/

It's an eternity ago and he's not known for being a great first baseman, but I think he may actually be adequate every once in a while to maybe once a week. Again, this obviously isn't ideal, but I'd much rather contrive roster machinations around Alonso than Bregman.

Campbell/Grissom can compete for time at 2B, ideally with the ability to back up multiple positions.

CF Duran
2B Campbell
3B Devers
DH Alonso
1B Casas
RF Abreu
SS Story
LF Yoshida/Anthony
C Wong/Narvaez/+?

I think that is a potentially brutal lineup for pitchers. Ceddanne as super sub.

I also think catcher is the position they could seem to upgrade defensively with more options.

Anyway, I don't want Bregman for any number of reasons already mentioned, including not wanting to force Devers to DH full-time before they really need to, which I still think is say two years off while slowly transitioning over time in an ideal scenario.
That article is almost 8 years old (February 2017) and Alonso's most recent 3B experience was 7 games in summer league in 2014 where he made 5 errors. We've seen enough "plug and play" experiments at 1B, there's no need to start this crap at 3B.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,793
Isle of Plum
OMG.

Devers at 3B is bad enough.... now we're talking about Alonso filling in at 3B???

I actually was not particularly interested in Bregman at the start of FA. But if the price is less than expected I think he could be a good fit.

Alonso at 3B even once a week sounds like a disaster to me.
I’m torn.

Devers at 3B for a couple more years seems like it makes sense, and nothing will convince me he’s better at 1B than Casas.

Ultimately I said no, because I think all spare resources should be diverted to adding high ceiling prospects (do equivalent of tack 5-10m on all trades) since they don’t compete for elite FA so need to trade for it.

Vlad? Please. Would like someone to convince me why a big market team doesn’t want him.
 

ookami7m

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
6,063
Mobile, AL
As far as thinking Bregman is a dick.... I have a feeling you are not alone and that's (consciously or not) a reason some people are against him on the Red Sox. Seems like a flimsy reason to not want him on the team to me.
I don't think anyone is unaware that Bregman either likes to play the heel or is just a douchebag. We don't have to go very far back to find evidence: https://www.mlb.com/cut4/alex-bregman-posts-instagram-video-of-home-runs-off-eovaldi-c297880152
 

RS2004foreever

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 15, 2022
1,643
I think people forget how good Casas was in his first full year. RC+ of 130 in '23 - 10 points higher than Bregman's '24 number. Casas left/righty splits in his first full year were not huge (.817 versus .865). I don't really see how Bregman fits with the roster unless you move Yoshida because I damn sure don't want to give up on Casas.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,574
The Red Sox have said they are not moving Devers off third. Here is Breslow a couple of weeks ago.
"Rafael Devers is our third baseman, and we're really excited about that," Breslow told WEEI's Jones and Keefe. "I think last year, we saw some improvement in terms of the way he was able to move, particularly to his left, which had not been as comfortable for him as to his right. And then toward the middle of the season, after there was a stretch where he almost singlehandedly carried the team for a number of weeks, he had a knee injury, two shoulder injuries.

"I think that affected him probably more than he was willing to let on, because he wanted to play every day, wanted to do whatever it is that he could to help our team win," continued Breslow.
Devers’s agent has said Devers is not moving off of third.

For at least 2025, and probably at least a year after that, Rafael Devers is playing third for the Red Sox.

You can make all the arguments you want for why that is a bad idea, and why the Sox should move him off the position, but it’s not going to happen. If you want Alex Bregman on the Sox and think he’s got a couple of prime years left, he is going to spend them primarily as a second baseman.
 

marcoscutaro

New Member
Jun 15, 2024
184
I think people forget how good Casas was in his first full year. RC+ of 130 in '23 - 10 points higher than Bregman's '24 number. Casas left/righty splits in his first full year were not huge (.817 versus .865). I don't really see how Bregman fits with the roster unless you move Yoshida because I damn sure don't want to give up on Casas.
He posted a wrc+ of 119 after missing four months last year & clearly struggling with his timing. People really underestimate how much he contributes to the lineup, especially having the kind of power to all fields and plate discipline that he does.

If Anthony or Campbell posted a wrc+ of 119 in their first year in the bigs, we’d all be ecstatic.
 

iddoc

New Member
Nov 17, 2006
213
The Red Sox have said they are not moving Devers off third. Here is Breslow a couple of weeks ago.

Devers’s agent has said Devers is not moving off of third.

For at least 2025, and probably at least a year after that, Rafael Devers is playing third for the Red Sox.

You can make all the arguments you want for why that is a bad idea, and why the Sox should move him off the position, but it’s not going to happen. If you want Alex Bregman on the Sox and think he’s got a couple of prime years left, he is going to spend them primarily as a second baseman.
Well, I think Breslow et al would be fools, from a public and player-relations perspective, not to say this right now. They may very well think something else internally. That said, I do not favor signing Bregman.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I’m torn.

Devers at 3B for a couple more years seems like it makes sense, and nothing will convince me he’s better at 1B than Casas.

Ultimately I said no, because I think all spare resources should be diverted to adding high ceiling prospects (do equivalent of tack 5-10m on all trades) since they don’t compete for elite FA so need to trade for it.

Vlad? Please. Would like someone to convince me why a big market team doesn’t want him.
Like always, it comes down to $$$ and years. Not singling you out, but how often heading into free agency have we heard, read or written things like..."It's not my money", "It's only money" and "FSG has plenty of money" only to be followed by..."That's crazy money" and "That contract's not going to age well"? On a more personal note I look at Vladdy and can't help but to wonder if he's going to be Prince Fielder part deux.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,890
from the wilds of western ma
Like always, it comes down to $$$ and years. Not singling you out, but how often heading into free agency have we heard, read or written things like..."It's not my money", "It's only money" and "FSG has plenty of money" only to be followed by..."That's crazy money" and "That contract's not going to age well"? On a more personal note I look at Vladdy and can't help but to wonder if he's going to be Prince Fielder part deux.
That would be my concern with Vladdy as well. Heavy guys generally don’t age well. I’m a yes on Bregman. He fills a need, would improve the ballclub immediately, and I want to return to contention in 2025. They have the resources, and any positional juggling shouldn’t be an insurmountable obstacle to signing him. As a sidebar, regarding his being a jerk, my guess he would quickly become our jerk, and fit in just fine.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
49,873
Like always, it comes down to $$$ and years. Not singling you out, but how often heading into free agency have we heard, read or written things like..."It's not my money", "It's only money" and "FSG has plenty of money" only to be followed by..."That's crazy money" and "That contract's not going to age well"? On a more personal note I look at Vladdy and can't help but to wonder if he's going to be Prince Fielder part deux.
In fairness, Fielder was one of the most durable players in the league before his neck injury, which I’m not sure his weight had any impact on. He didn’t miss a single game in his age 27-29 seasons. I do think the general concerns are valid though. Vlad is a terrible defender and the odds of someone with that body type being productive into his 30s just isn’t very good.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
8,534
The Red Sox have said they are not moving Devers off third. Here is Breslow a couple of weeks ago.

Devers’s agent has said Devers is not moving off of third.

For at least 2025, and probably at least a year after that, Rafael Devers is playing third for the Red Sox.

You can make all the arguments you want for why that is a bad idea, and why the Sox should move him off the position, but it’s not going to happen. If you want Alex Bregman on the Sox and think he’s got a couple of prime years left, he is going to spend them primarily as a second baseman.
Front offices say all kinds of things. At this time last year they were still saying they viewed Yoshida as a left fielder and Chris Sale as opening day starter. It means next to nothing.

His agent is not going to come out and be like, "yeah, we think Raffy sucks at third, and Raffy knows it. I don't know why the FO won't put him at DH!" And Breslow is not going to publicly shit on his star third baseman''s fielding ability because 1) it's terrible PR and undermines him and 2) it makes their bargaining position tougher, as Bregman or whoever now knows we're desperate to move him off third.

They're going to have private conversations about it if they decide to do it. And Devers is, at the end of the day, going to play where he's told to play, because that's his job. Ortiz didn't want to DH when he first came over here, and you know what? He sucked it up and did it.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,888
No, it's not, and it doesn't become his best position so long as he remains one of the best 3B in the game. He's not a good enough hitter to be one of the best dedicated DH in the game.
This is where an argument FOR keeping the current configuration of Casas, Devers, Yoshida breaks down for me. How exactly is it that Rafael Devers, that put up a wRC+ of 134 last year, which was 21st in the game overall is NOT a good enough hitter to be a dedicated DH in the game, but Masataka Yoshida, who put up a 115 wRC+ last year (and he didn't have enough at bats to qualify, but that would have put him somewhere in the 55-60 range with E Suarez, S Perez, B Donovan and A Bohm) IS a good enough hitter to be a dedicated DH.

I fully understand (and make) the argument that the team should find a good defensive and decent offensive 3b, move Devers to DH and recoup $5m on Yoshida to help in other areas because I think Devers IS a good enough hitter to be a dedicated DH. I fully understand (though this would not be my choice) the same argument about acquiring a 1b and moving Casas to DH. Although I'd disagree, I'd even understand the argument of saying NOBODY on the team is a good enough hitter to be a dedicated DH AND the Red Sox shouldn't go try and find this generation's JD Martinez - so the position should be used for days of rest and roster flexibility with a Ben Zobrist like player.

I truly don't understand how it tracks that Devers IS not a good enough hitter to be the dedicated DH when he's already a top 15-25 hitter in the game, but Yoshida that isn't even a top 50 hitter is.


If someone doesn't want to move Devers off 3b because it will hurt his fWAR, fine, I guess. But even in that case the team would still be better served using the "DH" slot for maximum flexibility and signing someone like Donovan Solano who can cover 1b and 3b, hits adequately against both sides of the plate (134 wRC+ vs LHPs and 107 wRC+ vs RHPs last year) and can give Devers and Casas both days off, either against brutal LHPs or just to keep their bat's in the line up while letting them DH, which Yoshida cannot do (unless I've missed that he's learned how to play 3b and 1b at the MLB level).


If Devers is not a good enough offensive player to be a dedicated DH AND he's a much better offensive player than Yoshida, then how on Earth is Yoshida a good enough player to be a dedicated DH. And if it's for some reason about saving FSRedbird's money or not long term blocking a prospect (which I don't think will happen anyway) then Solano STILL makes far more sense than Yoshida. Solano signed a 1yr / $2m contract last year, and he was ostensibly at least "better" in 2023 than in 2024 so what's the max he's getting this year, call it 1/$4m.


Getting rid of Yoshida if someone is willing to pay $15m total (as in the Red Sox send Yoshida and $39m to LAA for an archived video of the rally monkey) that would give the Sox around $33m to use this year below $LTT1.

Then you sign Solano ($29m left), sign "Grandal" to I'm guessing 1/$10m ($19m left) and sign Kirby Yates to I'm guessing 2/$25/$12.5m ($6m left). Which by the way also means even if someone is only willing to take Yoshida for the MLB minimum (which even I don't think he's seen as that much of an albatross, but to play the game, say he is) and the Red Sox still do all that without hitting $LTT1 - and are better positioned for 2025.

Solano would give the team much more flexibility, allow Devers and Casas to get rest and stay fresh while keeping their bats in the line up, adequately handle both sides of the plate, and not have two atrocious defensive players (Refnsyder and Yoshida) filling one role, essentially. He also "less" blocks a kid for whatever that's worth (and again I think this fear is incredibly overstated) as he'd be a 1 yr deal instead of Yoshida and his 3 years of clogging up a dedicated DH role.

IF the goal is to help the 2025-2027 Red Sox (ie the duration of Yoshida's contract) then getting someone like Alex Bregman and moving Devers to 3b makes the most sense to me.

IF the goal is to help the 2025 Red Sox and make sure that all spots in the line up outside of 3b and 1b remain open long term because: 1) Story is going to be healthy AND 2) Story is going to be good AND 3) Abreu is going to learn how to hit LHP AND 4) Anthony is ready for 150 MLB games AND 5) Campbell is ready for 150 MLB games AND 6) Mayer is going to suddenly start playing 150 games after never playing 100 in a single professional season AND 7) both Grissom and Hamilton are going to be good AND 8) you're not going to have to trade any of these because I guess you've hit on Priester, Fitts and Perales as well THEN signing someone like Solano and getting rid of Yoshida still makes more sense than the status quo.


The only way keeping Yoshida this year makes sense is if your take is that Yoshida, a horrendous defender (who is almost a year older than Bregman and 3 years older than Raffy) is going to suddenly become so valuable in one season that MLB general managers are going to completely have that one season out weigh the prior two and be lining up to trade for him when three years prior nobody even wanted to give him 5/$50m/$10m, AND that said likelihood and value is greater than a flexible DH position with a hitter that has been better than Yoshida in each of the last two seasons (Solano had a 116 and 118 wRC+ the last two, Yoshida had 110 and 115, respectively).


I suppose it's possible, but that's one hell of a 9 or 10 way parlay to hit on.
 
Last edited:

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,151
I didn't say he's not good enough to be a DH. I said he's not a good enough hitter to be as good a DH as he has been a 3B. He'd be in the Schwarber tier, not the Alvarez/Ozuna/Rooker tier.

Yoshida isn't in those tiers either obviously, but he's also significantly worse in the field than Devers. (and I'd say he's flashed Schwarber-tier capability himself, when healthy, but the jury is very much out on that.)
 
Last edited:

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
22,800
Rogers Park
No, it's not, and it doesn't become his best position so long as he remains one of the best 3B in the game. He's not a good enough hitter to be one of the best dedicated DH in the game.
I think he might be in his prime, actually, if his shoulders heal as expected. His pre-injury 2024 stats were extremely impressive, especially the improvement to his walk rate.

Season OPS over .990 at the beginning of August plays at DH. But then the shoulder injury slowed him down, and he had a .624 OPS to the end. This is underrated as a reason we didn’t make the playoffs.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,888
I didn't say he's not good enough to be a DH. I said he's not a good enough hitter to be as good a DH as he has been a 3B. He'd be in the Schwarber tier, not the Alvarez/Ozuna/Rooker tier.

Yoshida isn't in those tiers either obviously, but he's also significantly worse in the field than Devers. (and I'd say he's flashed Schwarber-tier capability himself, when healthy, but the jury is very much out on that.)
That's not what you said, but I can certainly believe it's what you meant and move on. We can agree to disagree on what Devers would be able to achieve without the wear and tear of playing 3b on his body, no problem.


Even in that case, signing Solano makes far more sense than continuing to use Yoshida. He put up a better wRC+ in 2023 and a better wRC+ in 2024 and unlike Yoshida could play 1b and 3b to keep Devers and Casas both "fresh" while keeping their bats in the line up.

I get (though disagree) with the idea of not wanting Bregman or similar. I don't get the idea of not wanting someone that's been a better hitter than Yoshida over the last two years that can play the two defensive positions where you could at worst really benefit from giving your two best offensive players each around ~25 games "off" each year while keeping their bats in the line up.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
22,800
Rogers Park
The only way keeping Yoshida this year makes sense is if your take is that Yoshida (who is almost a year older than Bregman and 3 years older than Raffy and a horrendous defender) is going to suddenly become so valuable in one season that MLB general managers are going to completely have that one season out weigh the prior two and be lining up to trade for him when three years prior nobody even wanted to give him 5/$50m/$10m, AND that said likelihood and value is greater than a flexible DH position with a hitter that has been better than Yoshida in each of the last two seasons (Solano had a 116 and 118 wRC+ the last two, Yoshida had 110 and 115, respectively).
If he’s actually the guy he’s shown in his hot stretches, he’s not a 115 wRC+ guy, he’s closer to a 150. The more time he spends not doing that, the less likely it becomes, but NPB is real baseball and we have seen half-season stretches here as proof of concept.

I’d judge it worth waiting to the deadline to see if he can do that.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,151
I think he might be in his prime, actually, if his shoulders heal as expected. His pre-injury 2024 stats were extremely impressive, especially the improvement to his walk rate.

Season OPS over .990 at the beginning of August plays at DH. But then the shoulder injury slowed him down, and he had a .624 OPS to the end. This is underrated as a reason we didn’t make the playoffs.
That's always been his thing though right? He's a monster in July and hurt in August, like clockwork.

And look, if the medical team can definitively pinpoint that as being caused by fielding (beyond acute incidents like his shoulder this year), then I'm way more interested in moving him off the position sooner. But if it's just a guess like maybe he can have a fuller season as a full time DH, that seems like an unnecessary gamble to me.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,151
If he’s actually the guy he’s shown in his hot stretches, he’s not a 115 wRC+ guy, he’s closer to a 150. The more time he spends not doing that, the less likely it becomes, but NPB is real baseball and we have seen half-season stretches here as proof of concept.

I’d judge it worth waiting to the deadline to see if he can do that.
Agreed, I think trying to evaluate Yoshida purely on his career line without context is an unforced error.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
8,534
That's always been his thing though right? He's a monster in July and hurt in August, like clockwork.

And look, if the medical team can definitively pinpoint that as being caused by fielding (beyond acute incidents like his shoulder this year), then I'm way more interested in moving him off the position sooner. But if it's just a guess like maybe he can have a fuller season as a full time DH, that seems like an unnecessary gamble to me.
The whole idea is that moving him off of 3B would prevent these shoulder injuries and late season swoons, dude.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
10,151
The whole idea is that moving him off of 3B would prevent these shoulder injuries and late season swoons, dude.
Pretty sure I addressed that directly? If that idea is coming from Red Sox medical I'm down, if it's coming from SoSH speculation I'm not.