If we need to pay someone far more than he believes he’s worth, let’s do it for Profar. He reportedly wants three years, not seven or eight, won’t cost us a pick, and will likely give us 75 percent of the production Bergman will.
Mark Canha is above average at 1b and hits LHP better than Bregman. He also plays the OF and isn’t terrible. He’d probably be available on a cheap one year, and that would make subsidizing Yoshida so that he can play elsewhere far more palatable.I believe I’ve made my stance on this clear, but for the record, I voted yes, though it doesn’t “have” to be Bregman. I want a core bat added, and ideally one that can play an above average 3b or 1b defensively.
Is this is a thing? Do you mean for some strange Devers specific reason? Or because this has been proven to happen with lots of poor defensive players that shift to DH?I’m really worried that taking Devers off the field will result in a drop of focus on the game, thus his hitting might suffer.
Way out on Profar. Egh.If we need to pay someone far more than he believes he’s worth, let’s do it for Profar. He reportedly wants three years, not seven or eight, won’t cost us a pick, and will likely give us 75 percent of the production Bergman will.
Relevant in terms of saying that signing Bregman (or similar) would some how necessitate blocking the kids. If Abreu continues to only play 125 games (his 3 year average) then you’re probably looking at those at bats going to Rafaela long term (Duran, Rafaela, Anthony configuration).Since when does Bregman play the outfield? I don't see how potential Abreu and Anthony at bats are in any way relevant to to his fit on the team.
And Solano hit them even better than that and can back up the corners adequately. There are good insurance guys out there that can do the job and be easily dumped if/when the kids force the issue.Mark Canha is above average at 1b and hits LHP better than Bregman. He also plays the OF and isn’t terrible. He’d probably be available on a cheap one year, and that would make subsidizing Yoshida so that he can play elsewhere far more palatable.
You seem to have ignored the point I made about your deliberately misleading use of stats so I’ll link it again.I believe I’ve made my stance on this clear, but for the record, I voted yes, though it doesn’t “have” to be Bregman. I want a core bat added, and ideally one that can play an above average 3b or 1b defensively.
Cross posting from the other thread:
Now let’s even assume that for some reason Casas 2023, and that is on the low end, becomes the norm and his 2024, 2022 and 2021 are outliers, and there are STILL about 1050 PAs left to split.
Where’s Anthony playing?I’ve come to the conclusion that many people’s feelings on the current roster construction and possible positional addition hinge on their views of Rafaela.
I think it would be complete malpractice to pencil him in center for 650 at bats. He had the worst BB% in the majors. The 4th worst wRC+. He had some clutch hits that are masking people’s view of just how horrible of an offensive year he had. His major league track record suggest his lack of discipline is no fluke and could be a fatal flaw.
His value is as up the middle super sub with great defense and base running.
Bregman would be an enormous upgrade over Ceddane offensively. Which is why I’d be very excited about him starting at second, Campbell in left, with Duran in center.
36 years old on opening day with a career .763 OPS/OPS+ of 113 btw.Mark Canha is above average at 1b and hits LHP better than Bregman. He also plays the OF and isn’t terrible. He’d probably be available on a cheap one year, and that would make subsidizing Yoshida so that he can play elsewhere far more palatable.
Yeah, this is where I am too. I’d be happy with Breg, but it creates a ton of problems without moving Yoshida, and that’s going to be a big problem. I think the easiest solution is Grichuk as a RH platoon with Yoshida at DH, but I would like a trade for Taylor Ward. He can play LF vs RHP, moving Rafaela to a utility type role, and could be the RH half of an OF platoon with Abreu. This would push Refsnyder to the short side of the DH platoon with Yoshida.Relevant in terms of saying that signing Bregman (or similar) would some how necessitate blocking the kids. If Abreu continues to only play 125 games (his 3 year average) then you’re probably looking at those at bats going to Rafaela long term (Duran, Rafaela, Anthony configuration).
Also of course it’s very possible those games need to look like Campbell, Duran, Anthony (L to R), with Rafaela at SS and Grissom at 2b (or Hamilton).
If a “core” bat is acquired the Sox would need to hit on a ton of things going right for at bats to be tough to come by, and of course, this would assume the Red Sox either hit on the majority of their pitching prospects, because otherwise you’re going to need to trade some of these guys for pitching.
Is a question I’ll worry about in the summer when I have more data and information on what we’ve got with Abreu, Yoshida, Campbell, Casas, and StoryWhere’s Anthony playing?
Well, your point is fair - the glut is really 2B/SS (and I have the odds pretty good that we are looking at Mayer/SS-Campbell-2B sooner rather than later) - but then to me it only makes sense to sign Bregman if you are going to play him at third base. Then you are bumping Devers to DH, presumably. Signing Bregman to a long-term contract to play 2B doesn't compute to me.Seems pretty likely to me they are going to be a bat short. If all the prospects hit big then sure they likely won't need more offense, but that's unlikely.
None of the guys on your list has to play 3B. Devers sucks at it and everyone else can play other positions.
Generally speaking free agency is expensive and not very efficient, if it turns out Bregman is the last man standing and can be had on the relative cheap (as it seems he might be...) he is going to be a big help. The potential fit issues are far overblown.
Next offseason when some people "want to go for it", most likely we would be thrilled to find some 4 WAR offensive player who will take a contract offer of 25M AAV.
I think Trout can still hit when healthy, but of course that hasn’t been the case. I also don’t like Trout at 222m but if they took on Yoshida’s entire deal that would be 54 coming off. It would make Trout’s deal a bit more palatable.Correa is probably gettable & I personally would love him but given the Story situation, I can’t see them doing it.
Paying the ghost of Trout over $222m through the next six years holds absolutely no appeal, sorry.
No…see here. Although positional players that DH do see a penalty, players that DH 75% of the time don’t see to see this effect.Is this is a thing? Do you mean for some strange Devers specific reason? Or because this has been proven to happen with lots of poor defensive players that shift to DH?
The flip side of this would be exchanging a guy on 54/3 for 222/6 and who may very well be (literally) unplayable for the back half of that deal while taking up a 40 man spot and being immovable. I’d be inclined to leave him in Anaheim personally.I think Trout can still hit when healthy, but of course that hasn’t been the case. I also don’t like Trout at 222m but if they took on Yoshida’s entire deal that would be 54 coming off. It would make Trout’s deal a bit more palatable.
I think Correa could probably play a pretty good 3B if he’d be willing to make the switch. He definitely has the arm for it.
Agree 100% if you’re committed to Devers at 3B and are signing Bregman for 2B long term. That makes no sense with Campbell et al.Well, your point is fair - the glut is really 2B/SS (and I have the odds pretty good that we are looking at Mayer/SS-Campbell-2B sooner rather than later) - but then to me it only makes sense to sign Bregman if you are going to play him at third base. Then you are bumping Devers to DH, presumably. Signing Bregman to a long-term contract to play 2B doesn't compute to me.
That’s fair, but I have a hard time imagining Trout being unplayable for any reason other than health. Even last year, his batted ball metrics were very good. I can understand the injury risk being too big of a risk to take though.The flip side of this would be exchanging a guy on 54/3 for 222/6 and who may very well be (literally) unplayable for the back half of that deal while taking up a 40 man spot and being immovable. I’d be inclined to leave him in Anaheim personally.
Correa said during his free agency that he’d only switch to 3B to accommodate Lindor in NY.
I'm not willing to write off his bat entirely after his first year. It may be as you say that he'll never learn to take a walk, in which case I'm fine making him a super sub. But he also just had his first taste of failure in a full season; all through the minors he was able to just athlete his way to good batting lines, so I want to see what he does this winter and spring to address a newly undeniable problem. Cause the upside of him making even minor improvements is tremendous.I’ve come to the conclusion that many people’s feelings on the current roster construction and possible positional addition hinge on their views of Rafaela.
I think it would be complete malpractice to pencil him in center for 650 at bats. He had the worst BB% in the majors. The 4th worst wRC+. He had some clutch hits that are masking people’s view of just how horrible of an offensive year he had. His major league track record suggest his lack of discipline is no fluke and could be a fatal flaw.
His value is as up the middle super sub with great defense and base running.
Bregman would be an enormous upgrade over Ceddane offensively. Which is why I’d be very excited about him starting at second, Campbell in left, with Duran in center.
They didn’t sign him to an 8 year deal to play in AAA. That’s silly talk. He is 23, plate discipline can be improved. He is an elite OF and very good MI who hit 15 HR and stole 17 bases and had 75 RBI out of the 9 hole. As a rookie. I’m sure having the 2nd most games played to Duran out of necessity wore him down as well.I think Rafaela should be in AAA playing every day, or traded- the team simply does not need a defensive replacement at any of the positions he plays, and there’s nobody you’d really want him to PH for. I don’t think he’s a great fit for this team, currently, and he’s the easiest bat to upgrade.
Now, the argument may be that he proved all he could at AAA and just needs at bats. But I don’t see him as a very good fit in a part time role; either for his career or the team.
If Yoshida can play the field, it could change things a bit, but if he can’t he’s also a really tough player to use optimally too.
I’m not saying they should punt on him. I’m saying they need to construct a roster where he is competing for at bats that hedges against be possibly his bat will not allow him to be a major league regular.I'm not willing to write off his bat entirely after his first year. It may be as you say that he'll never learn to take a walk, in which case I'm fine making him a super sub. But he also just had his first taste of failure in a full season; all through the minors he was able to just athlete his way to good batting lines, so I want to see what he does this winter and spring to address a newly undeniable problem. Cause the upside of him making even minor improvements is tremendous.
I don’t think they signed him to an 8 year deal to play in AAA, but I do think they signed him to an 8 year deal with the idea that his floor as an outstanding defensive super utility player makes the deal worth it. I do think some players can make modest improvements to their plate discipline, but Rafaela has a huge hill to climb to even become average in terms of chase rates and whiff rates.They didn’t sign him to an 8 year deal to play in AAA. That’s silly talk. He is 23, plate discipline can be improved. He is an elite OF and very good MI who hit 15 HR and stole 17 bases and had 75 RBI out of the 9 hole. As a rookie. I’m sure having the 2nd most games played to Duran out of necessity wore him down as well.
I'm counting the existence of both Anthony and Campbell as pretty decent hedges.I’m not saying they should punt on him. I’m saying they need to construct a roster where he is competing for at bats that hedges against be possibly his bat will not allow him to be a major league regular.
And despite the numbers you posted he managed to be the 4th worst offensive player in all of baseball. It’s hard to hit 15 bombs and be as bad as he was last year.They didn’t sign him to an 8 year deal to play in AAA. That’s silly talk. He is 23, plate discipline can be improved. He is an elite OF and very good MI who hit 15 HR and stole 17 bases and had 75 RBI out of the 9 hole. As a rookie. I’m sure having the 2nd most games played to Duran out of necessity wore him down as well.
yes he does. Let’s see if he was able to unlock something over the winter and and ST. Because there are many other tools at play there.I don’t think they signed him to an 8 year deal to play in AAA, but I do think they signed him to an 8 year deal with the idea that his floor as an outstanding defensive super utility player makes the deal worth it. I do think some players can make modest improvements to their plate discipline, but Rafaela has a huge hill to climb to even become average in terms of chase rates and whiff rates.
this is why numbers like that are complete bullshit. I bet if you asked Alex Cora, he would tell you that CR wasn’t even close to the 4th worst offensive player in all of baseball last year. He actually stabilized the team in many ways when Story went down and helped them from cratering in May. He helped them win baseball games. Do you know how I know this? Hint: it’s because I actually watch the games instead of reading spreadsheets.And despite the numbers you posted he managed to be the 4th worst offensive player in all of baseball. It’s hard to hit 15 bombs and be as bad as he was last year.
Replacing his bat with someone as good as Bregman would be a multiple win swing.
this is why numbers like that are complete bullshit. I bet if you asked Alex Cora, he would tell you that CR wasn’t even close to the 4th worst offensive player in all of baseball last year. He actually stabilized the team in many ways when Story went down and helped them from cratering in May. He helped them win baseball games. Do you know how I know this? Hint: it’s because I actually watch the games instead of reading spreadsheets.
Are you willing to trade Casas as an ascending player with four years of rookie scale to accommodate six years of Bregman’s decline on a FA deal? How much of Yoshida’s 3/$54M are you willing to subsidize to add in Bregman’s contract?Personally I’ve seen enough of Devers at 3B and am more than happy to let him be the DH of the future (or maybe play 1B if we trade Casas).
Sure, depending on the details.Are you willing to trade Casas as an ascending player with four years of rookie scale to accommodate six years of Bregman’s decline on a FA deal? how much of Yoshida’s 3/$54M are you willing to subsidize to add in Bregman’s contract?
Would you trade Casas for Bregman (and their contracts) for the next six years?Sure, depending on the details.
Though I think you would only have to do one of those, not both. I definitely would not sell low on Casas, but he would be on the table in a trade in the right deal.
We don't need Devers, Casas, and Yoshida on the roster in 2025 or beyond.... it's too late do go back in time and not have those 3, but at this point subsidizing Yoshida or moving Casas should be on the table.
Bregman might annoy some... but he's actually a great fit for this roster as a good defensive 120 wRC+ RHB 3B. Moving Devers to DH or 1B is low hanging fruit (as twibnotes said), leaves room for the kids, and would help a lot.
Profar had an .839 OPS in 2024.If we need to pay someone far more than he believes he’s worth, let’s do it for Profar. He reportedly wants three years, not seven or eight, won’t cost us a pick, and will likely give us 75 percent of the production Bergman will.
Nope.Would you trade Casas for Bregman (and their contracts) for the next six years?
No of course not.Would you trade Casas for Bregman (and their contracts) for the next six years?
Isn’t this the opposite of low hanging fruit? In order to do this, you would need to convince Bregman to come here and give him a 9 figure contract. You would also have to move your franchise player to DH and if you believe Breslow/Cora this has never been discussed with him. I know he’s already gotten paid but who knows how he would react. You would also have to find a willing trade partner for Yoshida and eat a significant portion of his contact.if the Sox are serious about contending, improving 3b defense is the lowest of low hanging fruits.
I’d very wary of trading youngsters with surplus value so as to sign free agents at full freight.No of course not.
Casas is 30M or so in surplus value, Bregman you are paying pretty much market rate (by definition as a FA).
But that's not the relevant question for building a team.
It's Bregman + what you would get for Casas, the overall cost, and how those pieces fit with the rest of the roster.
Moving a superstar on the right side of 30 off their defensive position has definite risksI voted yes based on the assumption it would be a short-ish deal and would move Devers off 3B.
if the Sox are serious about contending, improving 3b defense is the lowest of low hanging fruits.
I don’t care about devers’ war. I care about the team’s war.
I believe I’ve made my stance on this clear, but for the record, I voted yes, though it doesn’t “have” to be Bregman. I want a core bat added, and ideally one that can play an above average 3b or 1b defensively.
I also understand this means selling Yoshida for cents on the dollar, but honestly I’d rather have $1m extra per year to spend and the open DH slot than Yoshida (and I do think the Sox could get someone to pay $15m total of his salary, meaning the Red Sox get nothing back and pay about $13m for him to be elsewhere).
Cross posting from the other thread:
Again, this is already penciling in 150 games started at 2b and LF for Campbell and Anthony. I find it highly likely these two are productive MLB players. It also already assumes Abreu playing about 125g in RF. Even if we assume Abreu gets to the point of playing 140g per year (ie missing only a few games off for the toughest LHP that the Sox face, you’re still looking around 1225PA.
Now let’s even assume that for some reason Casas 2023, and that is on the low end, becomes the norm and his 2024, 2022 and 2021 are outliers, and there are STILL about 1050 PAs left to split.
So people say “play the kids”, and I get that. I‘m assuming a) Campbell and Anthony are borderline All Stars beginning on opening day; b) Casas goes from averaging about 100 games to 145; c) that Abreu goes from his about 125g average to more like 145g. Even making all those assumptions, there are still over 1,000PAs to split among Mayer, Rafaela, Grissom and Hamilton.
If the Sox have acquired “Bregman” and each of those 4 things follow the best case, there is still plenty of playing time available. Not to mention that they’re also going to need some of these “panned out” players to move for controllable starting pitching as well, since I think we can all now accept they’re not going to sign top of the market FA starters (or shall we go through this again next year when they won’t sign Gallen or whatever).
Either way, I don’t think they’re actually going to acquire this hypothetical core bat, I just strongly think they should.
Sorry if you didn’t see it, but I didn‘t ignore it. In the same post you quoted, I said the bolded above. Specifically saying, Casas goes on to begin averaging 145g.You seem to have ignored the point I made about your deliberately misleading use of stats so I’ll link it again.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/much-like-newman-the-sox-are-not-ready-to-deliver-the-2025-offseason-news-rumors-thread.44280/post-6491613
I would very much like to understand how moving Casas helps this already underpowered lineup, especially when he’s prearb and costs almost nothing. Maybe someone could walk me through that one.
Absolutely bizarre take.We don't need Devers, Casas, and Yoshida on the roster in 2025 or beyond.... it's too late do go back in time and not have those 3, but at this point subsidizing Yoshida or moving Casas should be on the table.
All the starters are good defenders, though, so you don’t need Rafaela to come in as a defensive replacement, and you wouldn’t want him to PH for anyone either. He’s been worse against LH than RH, so no real help there.Rafaela may improve his plate discipline, but there isn't a whole lot of precedent for players with his disastrous plate approach improving. Doesn't mean it won't, but yeah, I wouldn't bet on it.
Slotting him in as a fourth outfielder means you've got a solid backup in case of disaster with a solid floor.
I hear you dude, but also...like, I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of Anthony-Duran-Abreu-Story-Grissom-Campbell missed a substantial period of time. In fact I think it's oikely. In which case Rafaela really easily slots in. And will likely be able to start in someone's place once a week regardless.All the starters are good defenders, though, so you don’t need Rafaela to come in as a defensive replacement, and you wouldn’t want him to PH for anyone either. He’s been worse against LH than RH, so no real help there.
Feels like Rafaela is being treated as a guy who has to make the roster simply because of his contract, even though he’s probably not the best player for a backup role given the roster, and it’s hard to imagine him realizing his full potential with sporadic playing time.
LOL. Thanks for chiming in Chaim.Absolutely bizarre take.