Rosenthal's primary (perhaps only) focus revolves around player movement and contracts. When he ventures into the status of a franchise, he shows himself to be out of his depth. Teams that don't have splashy offseasons in his view are failing.
Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat
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Right, if Rosenthal wants to criticize a team for inaction this offseason, Baltimore is one I’d be way more frustrated by if I were one of their fans.
When you have the chance to sign a 31-year-old 3B to play 2B, a position he has very little experience playing, and trade away one of the best prospects in all of baseball, you gotta do it.
Orioles seem at least an arm short but the lineup is absolutely loaded. If Holliday and Mayo contribute, they could have an entire lineup of guys with OPS+ over 100.
Given that their lineup is so stacked - annd most of those guys anre still in their cheap years! - and the AL is weak at the moment, there’s not really much excuse for them to be “at least an arm short.” It’s true that they tried to re-sign Burnes, but it’s not like he was the only option.
Shouldn't Rosenthal be beating the drum that the Orioles need to be signing Bregman and trading Mayo for pitching? Or does that not get him enough clicks?
They could do this without even signing Bregman! (Sorry, I’ll save the rest for Sons of Jeffrey Hammonds.)
I think the Sox have a decent shot at having an entire lineup -1 (Rafaela) of guys with OPS+ over 100 this year.
Casas lifetime OPS+ of 125 for his career.
Story has hand an OPS+ over 100 in 6 of his last 7 seasons.
Grissom had an OPS+ of 105 with Atlanta.
Here is the lineup from last year:
At least he acknowledges that Bregman's offense is in decline before arguing that the Red Sox would be 5-10 wins better with him, presumably because "leadership". I agree, they would be 10 wins better than if they didn't play anyone at all at 2b. The counterargument is that it isn't hard to find someone else who can match his OPS+, now at 118 and declining steadily.
Probably not the place for it, but I think Baltimore has had an absolutely atrocious off-season at least to this point. I'd probably give them an F, maybe a D- if I looked closer and wanted to be generous.
Rutschman and Henderson are studs, no doubt about it. Westburg might be, but the jury is still out there. Cowser is a good player, no doubt, but he's more like an Abreu type to me than someone you construct a line up around and fear as an opposing manager. Urias has always been a part time player, O'Hearn is their own DH that can't hit same handed pitching, and then you have a lot of unknowns. O'Neill will probably have a 115OPS+ for them, but it'll be in like 65 games and then he'll be hurt again. They lost Burnes and have kind of gone the "Chaim Bloom" route in replacing him - which I am not a fan of.
Maybe the turn this all on its ear by trading for Logan Gilbert and then it's a different story, but as of now, I think they've had a crummy off-season.
I think as is, I'd peg them for a step back to around 88 wins (and as is, I'm thinking the Sox get 86). If Boston added a decent back up C and another high leverage relief pitcher, I'd bump that to 87 wins. If Boston adds a core bat and a high leverage relief pitcher, I think they go up to 90 and Baltimore probably falls down to 87 in that scenario.
Boston has had a very good off-season (B for me right now) and Baltimore has had an awful one.
Rutschman and Henderson are studs, no doubt about it. Westburg might be, but the jury is still out there. Cowser is a good player, no doubt, but he's more like an Abreu type to me than someone you construct a line up around and fear as an opposing manager. Urias has always been a part time player, O'Hearn is their own DH that can't hit same handed pitching, and then you have a lot of unknowns. O'Neill will probably have a 115OPS+ for them, but it'll be in like 65 games and then he'll be hurt again. They lost Burnes and have kind of gone the "Chaim Bloom" route in replacing him - which I am not a fan of.
Maybe the turn this all on its ear by trading for Logan Gilbert and then it's a different story, but as of now, I think they've had a crummy off-season.
I think as is, I'd peg them for a step back to around 88 wins (and as is, I'm thinking the Sox get 86). If Boston added a decent back up C and another high leverage relief pitcher, I'd bump that to 87 wins. If Boston adds a core bat and a high leverage relief pitcher, I think they go up to 90 and Baltimore probably falls down to 87 in that scenario.
Boston has had a very good off-season (B for me right now) and Baltimore has had an awful one.
Yeah, the offense was dragged down principally by players we didn't expect to be starting. 2B, 1B, and Rafaela's spot ended up being really brutal. If Grissom/Campbell are an upgrade over what we had last year and Casas plays for an entire season, the offense will be considerably better.
The issue isn’t a 37 year old Bregman hamstringing the team, at that point he’s a sunk cost.
The issue is what do you do when you have a 33 year old Bregman hamstringing the team?
Good point, and in a post-PED era it's not uncommon for guys to fall off a cliff offensively.
I totally agree. And to double down, the O'Neill signing was atrocious. Giving a 3 year/$50 million dollar deal to a guy with a .693 OPS against RHP last year, who has averaged 94 games a season the last 3 years, who is turning 30 this year, and who is a bad defender. The O's have so many offensive options and needed to spend big money on starting pitching.
Having Soto leave and then the O's, Blue Jays, and Rays sit on their hands is a pretty remarkable combination from the perspective of a Sox fan.
Yeah, O’Neill would was / would be fine on a one year deal in the $9m range. Anything more is just, wow…
Not only that, but DiPoto really overplayed his hand in Seattle, KC and Det haven’t added much, and Houston seems to be taking a small step back (though I think CWalker and Paredes are good players, that will enable them to stay at the top of that division, but they’re much less scary without Tucker and Bregman).
If there was any truth to the rumor, DiPoto turning down a real “baseball trade” in Casas and Yoshida for what I’d guess may have been Castillo and Munoz (or a good prospect) was a bad move on his part.
Breslow has done a really good job this off-season in the area it was most needed (replacing a 4/5 in Pivetta with a 1 in Crochet). Buehler (Crawford to the ‘pen) was icing on the cake.
I think you are off here; that isn’t a realistic contract for a somewhat elite power hitter in his prime. The players who have signed deals in that range this year are:
Max Kepler
Michael Soroka
Andrew Kittredge
Danny Jansen
Jordan Romano
Gary Sanchez
I guess the difference is, I don’t think O’Neill (career 116OPS+) is an elite (or somewhat elite) power hitter. I also would easily bet the under on him playing 300 games total over the next 3 seasons.
Agree to disagree; his SLG ranked 17th in the league last year among those with 400+ PA’s. Joc Pederson was the only FA who ranked higher; Santander and Hernandez just behind.
I don't think there's really such a thing as an elite power hitter that's below average vs RHP. As far as deals to those types, we have Refsnyder for $2m and the Guardians got Santana for $12m (but he's got a much higher defensive floor). Jose Iglesias didn't have the power part but still came up with a 999 OPS against LHP and he's still looking for a job.
I also have no idea why the Phillies gave Kepler $10m.
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Santana is 38. O’Neill is 29.
My point was that guys like O’Neill, who are in their prime and have shown that they can be power bats, don’t sign 1 year deals for under $10M in 2025. O’Neill’s comps are the Santander’s and Hernandez’s of the world, IMO.
We can agree to disagree on this one, I think.
I agree on a lot of the points he's made. The rigid thinking he's explaining is the self-imposed salary restrictions they place on players even if they're asking for fair market value(in Betts' case) or in Bregman's case a reasonable AAV ask. Hopefully they can come to a compromise on the years. A 5 year deal should eventually be acceptable for both sides.
I remain a Bregman skeptic. He's upgrade the team over the short term, but he's just such an awkward roster fit. If he takes over 3b and the Sox find a home for Yoshida then fine, but I don't see that happening. If they can trade Casas for a legit pitcher then I could live with that too, but it also looks increasingly likely that such a deal isn't out there.
I'm very against the idea of signing Bregman to play 2b. Such a move would likely be better this year, but at the cost of giving Grissom and KC a chance. I really want to see what the kids can do, and I just can't imagine it being a good idea to start the season in a way that virtually guarantees that at least two of KC, Anthony and Grissom will be stuck at AAA. If Story goes down maybe you can fit in two out of three of you keep Rafaela as a super sub, but if Story stays healthy then roster is so crowded.
It's always going to be a surer bet to sign a veteran star for the immediate next season, but if we want to open the window then we need to give the kids a chance.
I'm very against the idea of signing Bregman to play 2b. Such a move would likely be better this year, but at the cost of giving Grissom and KC a chance. I really want to see what the kids can do, and I just can't imagine it being a good idea to start the season in a way that virtually guarantees that at least two of KC, Anthony and Grissom will be stuck at AAA. If Story goes down maybe you can fit in two out of three of you keep Rafaela as a super sub, but if Story stays healthy then roster is so crowded.
It's always going to be a surer bet to sign a veteran star for the immediate next season, but if we want to open the window then we need to give the kids a chance.