Relax a bit with the defensiveness. It actually makes a difference in what the words mean.
Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat
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Certainly possible.
It could of course also be taken as the organization not believing in the team enough short term to invest with large capital expenditures.
Or that their remaining assets aren’t seen as valuable enough on the trade market to get a deal done.
I don’t discount any of those (or other) plausible explanations.
I‘d like to see it at least be in the middle tier. To me, that would show an organization that believed in its young players, but was also willing and able to commit resources to support those players and one that planned for the contingencies that often take place.
While it’s certainly more complicated, it’s a reason that I personally like organizations that make a lot of trades, especially when combined with big market resources. That to me shows a head of baseball that realizes the importance of a strong farm system while understanding it’s the means to an end, not the end itself. It also shows one that can work well in the small ecosystem of MLB teams, and hopefully be a good enough negotiator to get extensions completed with acquired players. It also shows an executive that is confident enough to make big decisions.
Its why I’m so bullish on the Crochet trade (coming along with the Verdugo and Sale trades), not just because the Red Sox get an ace - which is great - but I think it points to a lot of good characteristics of Breslow and the priorities of the organization.
Of all the quasi realistic options out there, it’s why I’d be most bullish (and encouraged) by an acquisition of Spencer Steer. But he probably isn’t even really all that available, thus my focus on the Bregman (not likely) down to Arenado (at least more realistic) tiers.
Steer is a guy that I was looking at a couple of days ago. Coming off a little bit of a down year, but not really any reason to think that he can't bounce back and seems like he might be available with the emergence/progress of other young Reds. I'd much prefer bringing in a guy who can also help the team with his glove. I've no idea if he fits that need or not, but if a deal that suits both teams can be found, then perhaps Steer can become the primary DH. I'd like to see the strikeout total lower, but he does take a fair amount of walks. He's not a FA until '29 so I don't think Cincy's going to move him just for the sake of moving him.
Yeah, I think there are a few possible editions that can be made without holding back at least 2 of the big 3.
I would argue that we already have a more useful version of Spencer Steer at home.
Expected wOBA (xwOBA) '23-24
Steer - .324
Yoshida - .324
xwOBA vs. RHP '23-24
Steer - .321
Yoshida - .335
xwOBA vs. LHP '23-24
Steer - .331
Yoshida - .293
OAA '23-24
Steer at 1B | -6 in 996 innings
Steer at 3B | -6 in 350 innings
Steer in LF | -8 in 1085 innings
Yoshida in LF | -8 in 714 innings
At this point Refsnyder is the Canha tier anyhow. I'm happy with the one who didn't slug .346 last season.
I don’t think it would be an either/or with Canha and Refsnyder. This team has multiple LH hitters (Abreu, Yoshida, Duran) who are significantly worse against LHP and would benefit from being platooned. In a scenario where they signed someone like Canha and didn’t trade Yoshida, Canha would be the RH DH and backup 1b (where he is fairly good defensively) and Refsnyder would be Abreu’s platoon partner. That would allow them to also platoon Duran (with Romy) who, let’s not forget, is a career .636 OPS against LHP for his career (.666 OPS in 24’). In this scenario, Hamilton would start the season in Worcester.
I believe I’ve made my stance on Yoshida clear enough, however I also realize that his contract is unmovable so it’s a certainty that he is going to be the Red Sox DH (approximately 65% of the time, I’d guess) for the next three years.
So question becomes how does Breslow go about acquiring a core bat (meaning one that has shown to be useful against both RHPs and LHPs) with multiple years of control with the limitations in mind of “1b, 3b and DH are locked in”.
Steer has a career 119 wRC+ against LHP and 99 wRC+ against RHP. His ability to play 1b, 2b, 3b and LF means he can easily provide for the necessary off days that even a fully healthy player would get (call it 20 for Devers, 20 for Casas and 20 each for whoever is in LF and 2b). He would also be able to start in place of Yoshida for the approximately 60 games per year started by a LHP.
Since unlike the majority of the current line up, he isn’t worthless against same handed pitching, he would still be a good bat to have when the 2nd and 3rd arms in the opposing bullpen are brought in.
As to @YTF very fair point about how available Steer truly is (and something I brought up) Boston would likely have to overpay in terms of value to get him. But I also sincerely doubt you’re talking about Anthony or Campbell (and if Cincy wanted one of them, you of course tell them no chance.)
I think there is no chance the Sox sign Bregman (liking it and thinking it could happen are different), and ultimately I agree FSRedbird wont eat the money to move Yoshida (so Arenado isn’t happening).
So how would I like to see Breslow most creatively fix the major issue on the team (that most of them are unusable against same handed pitching) while also understanding that some but not all of the “kids” will be guys we want to keep around? Overpay, in terms of pieces if need be, to acquire someone that has been useful against MLB pitchers from both sides of the mound on balance over the last 3 years, plays a bunch of different positions and would be able to fill in adequately should the team suffer a catastrophe (losing Devers, losing Casas or an important OF).
I’m guessing something like Crawford and good but not great pieces (maybe it’s Hamilton, maybe it’s Perales, maybe it’s Romero). I don’t know a ton about Cincy‘s farm beyond Lowder and that their best positional prospect (Marte) got popped for drug use and Arroyo lost a season due to injury, thus my assumption that Crawford, their choice of Hamilton or Grissom OR good but not elite (not top 3) prospect is enough of a “BTV” overpay that in the real world it gets pretty close.
This deal might make a guy like Steer more available: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43313895/reds-acquire-infielder-gavin-lux-dodgers
I also assume it makes Sasaki to LAD more likely.
I also assume it makes Sasaki to LAD more likely.
Why does trading an infielder to the Reds make it more likely that Sasaki goes to LA?
mlbtr: The Dodgers and Reds have announced a trade sending Gavin Lux to Cincinnati for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and the Reds’ Competitive Balance Round A selection. The competitive balance pick — the only kind of draft choice that can be traded — lands at 37th overall next summer.
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Does that equal international pool money?
I was going off of this from the ESPN story:
“By receiving the extra $2.5 million in draft capital, the Dodgers will help make up for a bonus pool that was lacking.”
More to the point of the OP’s mention of Steer as a potential option, Lux seems to offer the Reds similar production and versatility. So it seemed relevant to the possibility of another 2nd/3rd tier guy we could look at as a RHB to balance the roster.
“By receiving the extra $2.5 million in draft capital, the Dodgers will help make up for a bonus pool that was lacking.”
More to the point of the OP’s mention of Steer as a potential option, Lux seems to offer the Reds similar production and versatility. So it seemed relevant to the possibility of another 2nd/3rd tier guy we could look at as a RHB to balance the roster.
I guess what my question is whether that money is earmarked for the draft pool only. Honestly don't know
That's domestic draft pool money that comes with the balance pick, not IFA space (which can also be traded, as we just did for Narvaez).
The "lacking" bonus pool for the Dodgers is by virtue of picking last for winning the WS, though they haven't signed anyone through QOs to lose additional picks so far.
The "lacking" bonus pool for the Dodgers is by virtue of picking last for winning the WS, though they haven't signed anyone through QOs to lose additional picks so far.
Anyone else constantly confused that there is a Mike Sirotka, a Mike Soroka, and now evidently, a Mike Sirota?
I think Lux is a platoon partner for Espinal.
Career wRC+
Espinal 114 vs L, 79 vs R
Lux 59 vs L, 108 vs R
Put them together and you have a reasonable infielder to replace India. So no I don't think this frees up Steer for a trade.
Steer also had a wRC+ of 88 last season against lefties. Yes he hits them career wise (119), but if I'm making a move for a right handed bat, I want a needle mover, not someone who is 20% better than average as a platoon bat at a non premium position that doesn't need a platoon bat.
And he would take real assets to acquire and wouldn't have an every day job.
And he would take real assets to acquire and wouldn't have an every day job.
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It’s interesting to see Lux moved for relatively little; this is a guy who murdered AAA at age 21 as a top prospect and has settled into being a perfectly good, albeit not elite, ball player. The Dodgers did draft Sirota several years ago, though, so imagine he’s a guy they really wanted? Interesting deal.
I agree with this. Those two and Mayer are the answer to the question, will our lineup be for the next 5 to q0 years. It is best to find out very soon. Although we need to see Mayer play 140 games in a season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=1,4&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2022-03-01&endDate=2024-09-30&players=&filter=PA|gt|400&groupBy=career&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&position=B&sort=16,1&pageitems=2000000000&pg=0
Here are the top role playing/easy to acquire type lefty mashers over the past 3 seasons who have had at least 400 PA. I use 400 PA to demonstrate that it is still a small size
JDM wRC+ 152 free agent
Randal Grichuk wRC+ 150 who signed for 2 mill.
Robbie Grossman wRC+144 is barely still in baseball.
Carlos Santana wRC+ 138 1yr 5.25 mill
Gleyber Torres wRC+ 137 1yr 14.25 mill
Kyle Farmer wRC+131 1 yr 6.4 mill
Justin Turner wRC+ 125 (free agent)
Brendan Rodgers wRC+124. Non-tendered by the Rockies. If the Rockies don't want you, you suck.
Austin Hayes wRC+ 122. Non tendered by the Phillies
This is my argument for not giving up much of anything for that particular type of player and either going big or not at all. I don't believe the market values them because there is so little room on the roster for specific offensive skill sets - and most of the time that skill set is for a small sample. If the Sox wanted that type of guy (or Tyler O'Neill) they'd most likely have had him by now. And if they expend prospects or more than 9 figures, I'll be very disappointed unless that guy brings a lot of other things to the table too.
Here are the top role playing/easy to acquire type lefty mashers over the past 3 seasons who have had at least 400 PA. I use 400 PA to demonstrate that it is still a small size
JDM wRC+ 152 free agent
Randal Grichuk wRC+ 150 who signed for 2 mill.
Robbie Grossman wRC+144 is barely still in baseball.
Carlos Santana wRC+ 138 1yr 5.25 mill
Gleyber Torres wRC+ 137 1yr 14.25 mill
Kyle Farmer wRC+131 1 yr 6.4 mill
Justin Turner wRC+ 125 (free agent)
Brendan Rodgers wRC+124. Non-tendered by the Rockies. If the Rockies don't want you, you suck.
Austin Hayes wRC+ 122. Non tendered by the Phillies
This is my argument for not giving up much of anything for that particular type of player and either going big or not at all. I don't believe the market values them because there is so little room on the roster for specific offensive skill sets - and most of the time that skill set is for a small sample. If the Sox wanted that type of guy (or Tyler O'Neill) they'd most likely have had him by now. And if they expend prospects or more than 9 figures, I'll be very disappointed unless that guy brings a lot of other things to the table too.
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I don't think he is anything special, he finally started hitting in the second half last year but then went back to sucking in the postseason (.580 OPS in 43 PAs). He is 27 years old with a .709 career OPS in 1490 PAs. Also he's below average defensively and on the bases and has just two years of control left, he is cheap but past that don't think he is much of an asset.
Yes, he would probably start for the Yankees right now, heh.
Brent Rooker just got a five-year, $60 million extension, which only buys out 2 years of free agency. The deal includes a sixth-year vesting option at $22 million that can escalate. This is a guy who had 3 years of arb left and has hit 69 home runs the last 2 seasons combined. This deal once again illustrates how low the value is of 1b/DH types on the market.
And yet we are likely locked into the same type of player in Devers forever at 30+ million a year which is reason number 1 why you make EVERY attempt to make him a passable 3b on defense. If his defense doesn't improve though this contract is going to look REALLY bad VERY soon.
I can't see them dealing Casas when his value is going to be the lowest it has ever been right now IMO.
Last question is, how long until the Sox and their suddenly penny conscious owners are trading a heavily subsidized Devers?
By all accounts Breslow is really intelligent, it'll be intriguing to see how he navigates through all of this.
And yet we are likely locked into the same type of player in Devers forever at 30+ million a year which is reason number 1 why you make EVERY attempt to make him a passable 3b on defense. If his defense doesn't improve though this contract is going to look REALLY bad VERY soon.
I can't see them dealing Casas when his value is going to be the lowest it has ever been right now IMO.
Last question is, how long until the Sox and their suddenly penny conscious owners are trading a heavily subsidized Devers?
By all accounts Breslow is really intelligent, it'll be intriguing to see how he navigates through all of this.
Yeah those second half numbers were like a mid-July to early-Aug white-hot stretch that absolutely, of course, hit its apex in their series against Boston. He was 241/ 366/ 293 in Sept, too. He's not a guy that you ever find yourself pulling your hair out over, but he also really doesn't do anything exceptionally well on the field.
It seemed like he was in every single Dodger trade rumor when he was coming up too, and that they never dealt him felt like it spoke volumes. Has never really come together as a player.
His value can certainly drop lower if there's a recurrence of his unusual sternum injury.
For what it's worth, I don't think the Red Sox need a RHH that crushes LHPs (or at least not "just" that skill set).
They need a core bat that has shown to be effective against MLB pitchers from either side of the mound. In a 9 player line up, the Red Sox only have two such players - Devers and Casas. The rest of the roster (anyone with minimum one MLB at bat) is essentially useless against one side of the mound or the other (possible exception on Duran and if his .320 OBP is repeatable against LHPs from last year, which I'm not banking on with one season of data and even then, it's just "useful" and certainly not all that great).
To be clear, I don't care if a hypothetical player hits RH, LH or with his feet. The Red Sox need players that can hit both sides reasonably well, not to need two players to make one.
Case in point, the 2007 team, which is kind of the "forgotten" title team, if you will.
Here were their career splits vs right and lhp.
Varitek (S) - .756/.825
Youk (R) - .842/.908
Pedey (R) - .789/.847
Lowell (R) - .795/.836
Manny (R) - .974/1.060
Crisp (S) - .737/.710
Drew (L) - .906/.772
Oritz (L) - .981/.817
Winning the World Series and not the fWAR cup is, I think, still the goal for most Red Sox fans, and I hope the team as well. I'm not asking them to go out and simply find a Hall of Famer off the scrap heap (will never happen again for the Red Sox) and not even to set the top of the hitters market to acquire one (this would be Manny). Develop your own of course (Pedey, Youk, lets say 'Tek even though I know he was a trade) AND acquire some guys that do (Lowell, Drew).
They desperately need a core bat (for me this means ability to hit both sides of the mound and multiple years of control), and they've needed it since Bogaerts (and JDM) left. It's why I think Bregman is a good fit. NOT because he's Manny Ramirez - of freaking course he's not. Because I think he has a pretty good shot to be Mike Lowell or JD Drew - and certainly a much better shot at it than any current MLB players on the Red Sox using the last 2/3 years of data (excepting Devers and Casas of course).
For the record, even if they end up getting this kind of "core bat" AND if we assume that Anthony and Campbell are going to be those as well AND we assume Casas is going to play 145 games a year moving forward the team would still be 3 players short in terms of "core bats". That would give them 5 (of 9 spots). They currently have 2. This has been and continues to be a factor that holds back the line up (call it slightly above average) and will likely continue to do so until addressed.
Is anyone else dreaming of a scenario where Bregman re-signs with the Astros for less than their original offer and they then trade Paredes to the Sox for Abreu? A 1B/3B/DH rotation with Devers, Casas and Paredes would be pretty great.
Sign me up. Paredes with his career .733/.822 OPS against RHP and LHP (ie able to hit both effectively) is someone I've wanted on the Sox for a long time. Posted about him a few times around the trade deadline before he got dealt to ChC. Given the choice, I too would prefer him to Bregman, Arenado or plenty of other names that have been bandied about this winter. I sincerely doubt Houston is any more likely to deal him than Boston is to deal Crochet, however.
Yeah, he's not a free agent until 2028. The Astros got their Bregman replacement, he's not going anywhere. Paredes managed a 115 wrc+ with a BABIP of .195 in 2022. He's an on-base machine with pop headed into his prime.
Nightingale and TSN's Peter Chawaga speculating that Vladdy's interest in Boston might be saving us from a bigger push for Bregman
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2025/01/07/mlb-rumors-pete-alonso-alex-bregman-news/77499267007/
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/news/blue-jays-superstar-seeking-450-million-contract-would-love-be-red-sox/e94b4574b59719da4acca87b
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2025/01/07/mlb-rumors-pete-alonso-alex-bregman-news/77499267007/
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/news/blue-jays-superstar-seeking-450-million-contract-would-love-be-red-sox/e94b4574b59719da4acca87b
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Rosenthal continues his recent Red Sox bashing (paywalled)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6051048/2025/01/10/alex-bregman-red-sox-free-agency/
Rosenthal’s line of argument here is ridiculous:
Signing Bregman and figuring out how to trade Mayer and Campbell for another starter is one way to do it — a bad way, in my view — but how does Rosenthal figure that it’s self-evidently what we “should” do?
And how does a resistance to trade Campbell, a guy drawing comparisons to Mookie Betts, evoke a kind of “rigid thinking” that cost us Mookie Betts?
How the mighty have fallen. The Orioles have gone from everyone's favorite to win the East and the pennant for the next 500 years to "probably" better than the Red Sox.
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Yeah, the Betts thing is a complete non-sequitur. I can see the argument that the Sox are acting like cheapstakes lately (I've made it myself I lot over the last 2 years), but the notion of preferring to give the young players a chance to establish themselves is not a bad idea at all and I'd rather they do that than spend a lot of money on a player they probably don't really need.
While I agree totally with @chawson that it's a stupid line of reasoning to use as evidence (and I say this as someone who WANTS Bregman, but I don't think trading Campbell is the right way to do it, clearly), I don't think the "take" is wrong. It's kind of like saying - this basketball is round and thus the Earth is round. The reasoning and evidence is incredibly stupid but the conclusion is correct.
All I mean by that is FSRedbird's main goal seems to be to have a good team and make the playoffs within some manner of budget parameters which is opposed to what it seems the goals of the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Phillies are (winning a world series and the costs be damned). This is also a departure from FSG's mindset that we saw for nearly 20 wonderful seasons.
I'm not saying it's impossible to win the WS with their mindset (Houston has several times, Atlanta did, Boston very well could), I'm not saying it might not even be smarter from a business sense, but I think saying that their greater concern is being a good baseball team for a budget - as opposed to the singular goal of winning the World Series is a fair characterization of FSRedbird, (I do not lump baseball ops, Cora, or the players in here, to be clear I think THEIR goal is to win the World Series).
If Boston makes the playoffs the next 10 years and does not win a title, I think ownership will be just fine with that.
All I mean by that is FSRedbird's main goal seems to be to have a good team and make the playoffs within some manner of budget parameters which is opposed to what it seems the goals of the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Phillies are (winning a world series and the costs be damned). This is also a departure from FSG's mindset that we saw for nearly 20 wonderful seasons.
I'm not saying it's impossible to win the WS with their mindset (Houston has several times, Atlanta did, Boston very well could), I'm not saying it might not even be smarter from a business sense, but I think saying that their greater concern is being a good baseball team for a budget - as opposed to the singular goal of winning the World Series is a fair characterization of FSRedbird, (I do not lump baseball ops, Cora, or the players in here, to be clear I think THEIR goal is to win the World Series).
If Boston makes the playoffs the next 10 years and does not win a title, I think ownership will be just fine with that.
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Yeah, beyond silly. We have two of the best hitting prospects in baseball and just added a young star pitcher, and looking primed to have a wild card team next year and a division winner after that...but yeah, let's trade away the young guys.
How about signing Bregman trade away no one and deal with
an over abundance of talent if and when we get there
I think I'm gonna make a new thread on this. But the money I want the Red Sox to spend right now is on Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, and Campbell.
Saying that won't spend on Bregman, a player who plays the same postion as their currently best player, is fucking dumb. There is plenty to complain about from Red Sox spending but Alex Bregman ain’t it.
Saying that won't spend on Bregman, a player who plays the same postion as their currently best player, is fucking dumb. There is plenty to complain about from Red Sox spending but Alex Bregman ain’t it.
Agree 100%
Rosenthal should stick to reporting, and stop opining about what the Red Sox "should" do. He would make a lousy GM.
It's great idea! But there's some real problems with the amount of people you can have on a roster, and I really don't think just cycling through players in order to get them AB's to keep them happy is the best way to get the most out of your players.
IF they sign Bregman, they could definitely figure out a way to get everyone on board... but it'd likely be at the expense of actually hoping that Grissom fails.
It totally depends on how much it's gonna cost. Last thing anyone wants is 37 year old Bregman hamstringing this team and preventing them from extending one of the young studs.
I'd be up for if and only if they can move Yoshida. And I don't really see that happening post-labrum tear.