Alex Bregman and Adding a Bat

[OCD SS]

Since most of the big names are off the free-agent board, the last big name looking very lonely on the shelf looks to be Alex Bregman, who is filling the other off-season threads.

This is take our collective temperature on bringing him in to the Sox. The poll is simple, use the thread to editorialize.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I voted no. About the only way I could be swayed is if he comes in on a pillow contract for a year. That would be a decent hedge on the kids panning out as hoped. I really want no part of him on a long term deal.

 

[Ale Xander]

Mainly because we have Devers, I voted no.
I don’t think he can/would play 2B or Devers would play 1B (and we still have Casas)
Too young for DH imho

 

[radsoxfan]

I don't think we should break the bank for him, but I do think he would help and fit just fine.

Devers is not a 3B (I expect it to only get worse from here). Yoshida fits better on other rosters compared to ours, so hopefully there is a fit where we don't have to pay much more than 50% of his salary.

If the numbers are at (or ideally below) the Fangraphs crowdsource (6/162) or the rumored Astros offer (6/156) that sounds good to me. Would also be fine giving him a 2/60M with a 1 year player opt out if he wants to try again at FA next year.

For the record, I very much would like to see the FO spend money this offseason rather than pocket it. Not recklessly, but those deals above mentioned for Bregman are about as fair as it's going to get in FA.

We are 1 core bat short and an above average defensive RHH 3B with a wRC+ 120 would help this team significantly.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Also a no. Besides all the other stuff that’s been pointed out in other threads about the walk rate mystery, and the general decline worries: I just don’t like the guy. I enjoyed his salty tears in 2018, and have no interest in rooting for him now. I will like the team a little less if he’s on it.

 

[bsj]

Yes. It's not my money. It's not like I suddenly won't be spending the most in the league on tickets if we don't get him. Spend what you need to and figure it out later. Stop hemorrhaging prospects every time you want to add an impact player. This division is so wide open now, it's time to go for it.

 

[Max Power]

Yes. It's not my money. It's not like I suddenly won't be spending the most in the league on tickets if we don't get him. Spend what you need to and figure it out later. Stop hemorrhaging prospects every time you want to add an impact player. This division is so wide open now, it's time to go for it.

I'd rather spend prospects on better players than money on less good players. Crochet is probably going to be better than Burnes or Fried, regardless of the number on his paycheck. If there were a hitter equivalent move to make, I'd be all over it, but I don't think there's a match out there. I've also been clear in the other thread that I don't think Bregman brings much to the lineup beyond the guys who he'd displace. Pass.

 

[radsoxfan]

Comp wise I think Matt Chapman is a pretty decent one. He's a year older and just signed a 6/151M deal (he also was just forced to sign a short term prove it deal the year before.... which would also be fine with me for Bregman).

That is definitely fair as far as FA contracts go and should provide some good excess value the first few years of the contract at 25M AAV. Bregman and Chapman both look like 4-ish WAR guys in the short term to me.

There are few other impact options out there and being stuck at this team payroll level is not optimal from a fan perspective.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I voted no. Of course I would like FSG to spend at the top of the league, but that’s not the reality we live in. So the decline years of that contract will affect the front offices’ ability to extend the next wave of young great players. I don’t want to see them make a Mookie like trade with Roman Anthony because team x was willing to take the last two years of Bregman’s contract.

 

[zenax]

No. Wait and see if the touted prospects in the system actually will deliver, how Abreu and Casas do. In order to have a realistic chance of bringing a title in 2025. they need to add more than Bregman to this off-season moves.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I voted no. About the only way I could be swayed is if he comes in on a pillow contract for a year. That would be a decent hedge on the kids panning out as hoped. I really want no part of him on a long term deal.

this was my thought until it was pointed out that losing a draft pick for a year of AB is bad business.

 

[Beomoose]

I'm a no at most of the numbers that the Boras machine has been throwing around for him. You could talk me into a 1 or 2-year deal, but I doubt you can talk him into it. We whiffed or sat on our hands for the free agents who would have been clear upgrades, why spend that money on a guy who isn't and who we'll probably need to unload in a couple seasons anyway?

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

I voted yes I'd like the player but with a caveat: pay him more per year at 2-3 years. If he doesn't bite and signs a 5-8 year deal elsewhere, I won't be mad at all. Also fine if they agree to a longer deal with a team buyout/option after year 2 or 3, but that also means he doesn't have a much longer guaranteed deal elsewhere.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I’d be very excited about adding him. He unquestionably makes them a better team in 25 and 26. Now, the improvement could only be marginal based on what Grissom and/or Campbell become but it is improvement.

Bregman would be the highest projected WAR player on the roster in 2025 according to Streamer. He has the second lowest K% among right handed hitters the last two seasons. 5th in WAR. 8th in wRC+. He’s definitely under appreciated on this board. His addition could make the Sox arguably the best team in the AL.

That being said, given there are internal options, I’d really only be behind it if it meant the Sox were willing to spend up to the second tax threshold over the next 3-4 seasons. That’s a big “if”. If they are going to make the first tax a line in the sand, it becomes a quick no and I’d rather spend comparable money at a lower AAV on Crochet extension.

In summary, would be very exciting, make the team better in the near term, but would be an inefficient use of resources for an ownership group that doesn’t appear willing to go over the tax threshold.

 

[simplicio]

Hard pass. Getting Bregman means you're dumping Yoshida for nothing, locking up your DH slot with Raffy for the next 9 years at $30m per to replace him with a projected downgrade, losing the QO pick and IFA money and making sure we definitely have to move other everyday players if our 3 top 10 overall prospects meet expectations.

All for the pleasure of paying another ~$30m/yr to a guy on the wrong side of 30 who's already demonstrated decline and is merely average against LHP (you know, the whole reason we're looking for a RHB in the first place).

 

[Rasputin]

I voted no. About the only way I could be swayed is if he comes in on a pillow contract for a year. That would be a decent hedge on the kids panning out as hoped. I really want no part of him on a long term deal.

This is where I am. If he’s not going to play third, what’s the point? We have two good in house candidates for second. He’s probably better than them in 2025 but that probability goes down every year of the contract.

 

[bosockboy]

No. Can get 80% of his value for 40% of the money with Profar and not give up a pick.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Hard pass. Getting Bregman means you're dumping Yoshida for nothing, locking up your DH slot with Raffy for the next 9 years at $30m per to replace him with a projected downgrade, losing the QO pick and IFA money and making sure we definitely have to move other everyday players if our 3 top 10 overall prospects meet expectations.

All for the pleasure of paying another ~$30m/yr to a guy on the wrong side of 30 who's already demonstrated decline and is merely average against LHP (you know, the whole reason we're looking for a RHB in the first place).

this. could not have said it better. I obviously voted NO as well.

 

[bsj]

I voted yes I'd like the player but with a caveat: pay him more per year at 2-3 years. If he doesn't bite and signs a 5-8 year deal elsewhere, I won't be mad at all. Also fine if they agree to a longer deal with a team buyout/option after year 2 or 3, but that also means he doesn't have a much longer guaranteed deal elsewhere.

I voted yes but if he has a 6+ years deal somewhere, no way.

 

[bsj]

Also my yes vote is with the caveat he plays 2nd base.

 

[simplicio]

Bregman would be the highest projected WAR player on the roster in 2025 according to Streamer.

That would only be true because you've kicked kicked Raffy off his spot to fit Bregman in.

 

[nocode51]

I'm not a huge no on Bregman it just doesn't seem like the right time/fit. I know people are skeptical, with good reason, of the front office but I would like to think it's just lining things up. Get some extensions for the kids, and be ready to pounce on mid season trades. When the window starts to open be ready to bust through it and spend the $ then to put us into prime contention.

 

[Skiponzo]

“I voted no. About the only way I could be swayed is if he comes in on a pillow contract for a year.”

This is where I am. If he’s not going to play third, what’s the point? We have two good in house candidates for second. He’s probably better than them in 2025 but that probability goes down every year of the contract.

Same here but I’d be OK with some kind of 2 year high dollar option if I were the Sox. Maybe add an opt out after first year to get him to bite.

 

[radsoxfan]

My vote is for 3B rather than 2B. I'm not sure how the defense would play at 2nd and we would not be getting out of Devers' D this way. I'm surprised how many people want to roll with Devers at 3B going forward.... he is bad and likely to get worse. His contract at DH is annoying but at this point nothing we can do about it.

Agree with everything SouthernBoSox said. He makes the team better, potentially significantly so. Esepcially in 25 and 26.

I do agree it's contingent on how much the FO wants to spend in a general sense. If it's going to be more penny pinching and Bregman prevents any other FA signings or extensions, then of course that's a problem. If we do sign Bregman I would hope it's a sign we aren't going to stay a middle of the pack payroll team forever.

 

[chawson]

(crossposting from the offseason thread)

I suppose you could argue if Anthony, Campbell, and Mayer all hit, AND Story is healthy/productive, AND we have no OF injuries or make any trades.... then Bregman could end up being redundant.

If this scenario pans out, it would give us roughly 12 starting-caliber players for 8 non-catcher positions as of today.

Here's the depth chart (ital = not on the 40-man):
C - Wong, Narvaez
1B - Casas, Gonzalez
2B - Campbell, Grissom, Hamilton, Gonzalez
3B - Devers, Gonzalez
SS - Story, Mayer, Gonzalez
LF - Duran, Refsnyder
CF - Rafaela, Refsnyder
RF - Abreu, Anthony, Refsnyder
DH - Yoshida, Refsnyder

If all these guys stay healthy and hit their Steamer projections (one of the only 2025 projection systems published right now), then yes, I think Bregman is redundant. Steamer likes Campbell to the tune of a 114 wRC+, and Anthony at 103 wRC+. Bregman is at 122 wRC+.

We've all got different perspectives on whether Anthony and Campbell are ready or need more seasoning in Worcester. That makes sense. Personally, I think they're ready. FWIW, Steamer thinks Bregman is worth what, 1 win over Campbell at 2B over a full season?

 

[Quatchie]

I hope Anthony and Campbell are the real deal. I can't tell how much of FSG not spending on long term deals is strategy based on the farm or just being unwilling to play at the top of market deals. If not playing at the top of the market is strategy it is sobering to know that in this new baseball reality, the Red Sox aren't going to be in the top tier of spenders like the Mets, Dodgers and MFY are. I believe the owners are going to demand a salary cap as part of the next labor deal and Henry will be a big part of that.

 

[Bigpupp]

We're projected to have the 24th best batting WAR. We need help and he's the best guy available.

 

[Quatchie]

We're projected to have the 24th best batting WAR. We need help and he's the best guy available.

This is what worries me. They need more than SP. They need a lot.

 

[PedroisGod]

I voted yes because I think he can help the 2025 Red Sox. A RH bat with pull power, good contact rates and no real platoon issues is exactly what we need.

However, I do have some concerns about the positional fit. I said before the offseason started that I don't really see how a meaningful offensive acquisition is possible with Yoshida on the roster. Bregman works in the short term as he can play 2B. But once Mayer or Campbell are ready, I don't really see what happens if Yoshida is around.

Ideally, if we were to add Bregman it would be as a 3B and have Devers move to DH (or Casas to DH with Devers at 1B).

I also think that the only other moveable parts offensively were Casas and Abreu and it never made sense to move them just because you couldn't get rid of a player who is worse than them in just about every facet of the game.

Yoshida can't really go to the bench either because it makes no sense to have a bench option who can't hit lefties or play defense. It also doesn't make a ton of sense to basically DFA him or pay down about 70-80% of his contract to get rid of him. If that's what it takes to unload him, I'd sooner add Grichuk as a short side platoon partner for him, knowing that Grichuk can still play the OF if necessary.

 

[radsoxfan]

If all these guys stay healthy and hit their Steamer projections (one of the only 2025 projection systems published right now), then yes, I think Bregman is redundant. Steamer likes Campbell to the tune of a 114 wRC+, and Anthony at 103 wRC+. Bregman is at 122 wRC+.

We've all got different perspectives on whether Anthony and Campbell are ready or need more seasoning in Worcester. That makes sense. Personally, I think they're ready. FWIW, Steamer thinks Bregman is worth what, 1 win over Campbell at 2B over a full season?

I'm all in on Campbell and Anthony too. But I don't think they make Bregman redundant at all (once you accept its OK to move Devers off 3B).

My main point was not about Cambpell and Anthony, but that in addition to those 2, you would also need Story and Mayer (or I guess Grissom) to be good/healthy and not make any position player trades before you get to the point Bregman is actually redundant. That's a lot to ask.

The rumored #s on what Bregman may actually get are just quite reasonable for a FA. And I think he actually fits the roster pretty well, better than some here seem to think. My stance would change if we are giving him 200M of course.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

(caveat, I'm not comparing the quality of players here)

Signing Bregman to a longish term deal for significant money just to "do something" and show commitment to spending for wins or whatever is reminiscent of the 2014-2015 off-season that netted the team Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Signing one of them was justifiable with a hole to fill at 3B. Signing both necessitated playing Hanley in LF (disastrously) then at 1B (less disastrous but still not great) just to fit the odd pieces together. Bregman is a square piece and if the team has a hole, it's round. Bringing him in necessitates a cascade of moves that likely involves some square pegs in round holes.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Voted no. I'm not convinced he'll be a good 2B at 31 considering he was not a good defensive SS at 25, and a huge part of his value is his defense. Reposting these graphics:

 

[E5 Yaz]

We're projected to have the 24th best batting WAR. We need help and he's the best guy available.

In free agency. We keep hearing that Breslow is burning up the phones on trade talks; maybe he has a target or two on offense.

 

[Archer1979]

We're in the area of the Hot Stove where teams have a ton of money that they wanted to spend, but the premier free agents are off the board. Bregman just seems like one of the last people in the bar at last call and you're worried you're going to go home alone if you don't do something. At this point, you're more likely to make a Trevor Story deal than anything.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

We're projected to have the 24th best batting WAR. We need help and he's the best guy available.

Is this pulled from Fangraphs? If so, any idea what the projection was for the Sox last year?

 

[RG33]

I am not super opposed to signing Bregman to a 5-6 year deal, but I don’t think it would be some horrible misuse of funds. I don’t think he is the kind of signing that is going to put the offense or defense over the top — so I’d rather be patient, see what the kids can do (Anthony / Campbell), and use that money on Tanner Scott / Jack Flaherty or something else.

 

[radsoxfan]

(caveat, I'm not comparing the quality of players here)

Signing Bregman to a longish term deal for significant money just to "do something" and show commitment to spending for wins or whatever is reminiscent of the 2014-2015 off-season that netted the team Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Signing one of them was justifiable with a hole to fill at 3B. Signing both necessitated playing Hanley in LF (disastrously) then at 1B (less disastrous but still not great) just to fit the odd pieces together. Bregman is a square piece and if the team has a hole, it's round. Bringing him in necessitates a cascade of moves that likely involves some square pegs in round holes.

Could not disagree more about this fit. Moving Devers to DH and subsidizing a Yoshida trade would make this roster make so much more sense. Still plenty of room for Campbell and Anthony. The square peg-round hole talk I think is entirely unfounded.

Bregman short term 30AAV or longer term (5-6 years) at 25M AAV is good FA value. It's not just spending for the sake of it.

 

[tbrown_01923]

I am leaning no because of contract length fears. I'm cool with a three year deal, but i also don't want any more long term unmovable salary on the roster. I want them to be able to scale with and around the kids.

 

[Cassvt2023]

We're projected to have the 24th best batting WAR. We need help and he's the best guy available.

who gives a shit. In 2024, this is where the Red Sox ranked in all of baseball:

Avg. 6th
HR 9th
RBI 9th
R 9th
H 6th
SB 7th
2B 1st
OBP 9th
SLG 6th
OPS 7th

we only lost O’Neill and he played In barely 100 games.
Story and Casas both missed majority of season.
Devers and Yoshida both played with nagging injuries.
guys who had zero At Bats: Anthony and Campbell, two of best prospects in baseball
guys who had too many at bats: Valdez, D Smith, Dalbec, McGuire, Westbrook, Cooper, Reyes, etc…

our Offense will be, and generally is just fine.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I voted yes, and would like him at 3B.

- Devers is one of, if not the worst, defensive 3B in baseball. I don’t care if we lower his WAR by moving him to DH. His defense has a net negative value and hurts the team. WAR be damned, his bat doesn’t become less good because he’s a DH.
- Bregman is an above average defensive 3B, and a consistent four win player.
- A lot of the projected lineups have Trevor Story hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th. He’s been a putridly bad hitter for a while now, and should be batting 8th.
- We have no real 3B prospects on the horizon.
- Yoshida is an okay singles hitter, but he has very little power, can’t play defense, and doesn’t run well. He’s not bad, but he’s probably the most replaceable player in the lineup.
- 2B/LF can be determined by the best combination of Campbell/Grissom and Anthony/Campbell - with Hamilton and Rafaela being the respective Plan Bs if one or neither prove ready in spring training.
- I’m a huge “no” on Santander, and this lineup needs upgrades somewhere. The defense also needs help.

 

[moondog80]

who gives a shit. In 2024, this is where the Red Sox ranked in all of baseball:

Avg. 6th
HR 9th
RBI 9th
R 9th
H 6th
SB 7th
2B 1st
OBP 9th
SLG 6th
OPS 7th

we only lost O’Neill and he played In barely 100 games.
Story and Casas both missed majority of season.
Devers and Yoshida both played with nagging injuries.
guys who had zero At Bats: Anthony and Campbell, two of best prospects in baseball
guys who had too many at bats: Valdez, D Smith, Dalbec, McGuire, Westbrook, Cooper, Reyes, etc…

our Offense will be, and generally is just fine.

The projection is likely assuming significant regression from Abreu and Duran. Which may or not be the case, but that's why the models don't love the Sox lineup at the moment.

 

[OCD SS]

No. Can get 80% of his value for 40% of the money with Profar and not give up a pick.

I was going to add a second question to the poll comparing Bergman to “Profar, or another hypothetical RHB”, but it looks like we can’t do that anymore.

 

[YTF]

Yes. It's not my money. It's not like I suddenly won't be spending the most in the league on tickets if we don't get him. Spend what you need to and figure it out later. Stop hemorrhaging prospects every time you want to add an impact player. This division is so wide open now, it's time to go for it.

Seriously? We're hemorrhaging" prospects now?

 

[Ale Xander]

I voted yes, and would like him at 3B.

- Devers is one of, if not the worst, defensive 3B in baseball. I don’t care if we lower his WAR by moving him to DH. His defense has a net negative value and hurts the team. WAR be damned, his bat doesn’t become less good because he’s a DH.
- Bregman is an above average defensive 3B, and a consistent four win player.
- A lot of the projected lineups have Trevor Story hitting 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th. He’s been a putridly bad hitter for a while now, and should be batting 8th.
- We have no real 3B prospects on the horizon.
- Yoshida is an okay singles hitter, but he has very little power, can’t play defense, and doesn’t run well. He’s not bad, but he’s probably the most replaceable player in the lineup.
- 2B/LF can be determined by the best combination of Campbell/Grissom and Anthony/Campbell - with Hamilton and Rafaela being the respective Plan Bs if one or neither prove ready in spring training.
- I’m a huge “no” on Santander, and this lineup needs upgrades somewhere. The defense also needs help.

I would prefer we first get rid of Yoshida and then improve C, P, and SS (tough on the latter given contract) before we try to move our best hitter to a different position.

Also depends how the powers that be really view 2B and Anthony, I think there’s more hype there than reality and realy hope
I’m wrong (more so on Anthony than Cambbell:Grissom)
Also could be well served trading Duran and/or Abreu while their stock is high although I kind of like that 4 players form3 positions (assuming we keep Rafaela in CF) so OF looks fine if you think Anthony is ready.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Seriously? We're hemorrhaging" prospects now?

Mickey Gaspars don't grow on trees

 

[simplicio]

Mickey Gaspars don't grow on trees

He's more of a root vegetable.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Mickey Gaspars don't grow on trees

but if he fell out of a tree, he wouldn’t hit a single branch…

 

[Fishy1]

Im with @radsoxfan and company. If Campbell and Anthony have breakout years and Crochet pitches like we hope he will, then the Sox's window is opening as soon as next year. Bregman would make that a surer bet.

Bregman, by 34 or 35, will almost vertainly not be a superlative fielder and above average hitter anymore, but I don't mind eating a couple of bad years if it allows our window to open earlier.

And Devers is a bad fielder. I don't care about maximizing his WAR or whatever, that's asinine. The entire pitching staff would benefit from having more security over there.

It's all obviously predicated on shipping off Yoshida, but I hope they won't let that stop them.

 

[Ale Xander]

Mickey Gaspars don't grow on trees

If Gasper is traded, does the hemorrhaging make any sound?

 

[PRabbit]

Voted no. Some of the best prospects in baseball are knocking at the door; the 25-30M AAV it would take for Bergman would be better allocated to the pen.