ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,563
Is your sim a computer-based sim? Something you developed?
No. I'm too dumb for that. I just use MLB The Show 18 on the PS4 :)

I'd be curious to see how yours works. I was on a walk last night and reading SoSH and read about your sim for a moment and a longer part of my walk was devoted to wondering how yours works.

Set the game up and let it play itself (CPU v CPU). I do it on Madden before the Pats play the Super Bowl and essentially it's just a good way to kill 30-45 minutes before the game.
 

[icon]

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Jul 30, 2005
230
Memphis, TN
I just ran a sim in my head and we took this one 8-3 with Severino falling apart in the 5th. Oh and Kimbrel let in an inherited runner after coming in to a bases loaded 8th.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,711
No. I'm too dumb for that. I just use MLB The Show 18 on the PS4 :)

I'd be curious to see how yours works. I was on a walk last night and reading SoSH and read about your sim for a moment and a longer part of my walk was devoted to wondering how yours works.

Set the game up and let it play itself (CPU v CPU). I do it on Madden before the Pats play the Super Bowl and essentially it's just a good way to kill 30-45 minutes before the game.
Mine is a percentage based dice game. I obviously had to be the manager of both teams but tried to be realistic in the decisions I made. It's a little hard to describe here, but I took the player stats and plotted them out over 1,000 plate appearances. Using three ten-sided dice (red, white, and blue), a player card looks like this:

Betts
HR 052
3b 060
2b 137
1b 293
BB 425
HBP 438
K 586
G 715
F 000

So roll the three dice. Red 2, White 7, Blue 1 = 271. 271 fits between the 137 and 293 on Betts' card, and therefore that's a single. I then have a separate chart indicating where the single lands and whether it's a soft single or a hard single. That matters, obviously, if you have a runner at second say, and the difference between hitting a hard single to left or a soft single to right center is the difference between scoring that runner from second or not. Also a separate chart indicating where grounders and flies/pops go.

Here's Devers playing card, to see how different it is from Betts

Devers
HR 043
3b 043 (meaning that his card cannot produce a triple; more on that in a moment)
2b 092
1b 220
BB 298
HBP 298
K 545
G 766
F 000

That same 271 roll for Devers is a walk instead of a single for Betts. A roll of 050 is a homer for Betts but a double for Devers. A roll of 393 is a walk for Betts and a strikeout for Devers.

Now, you see that the HR and 3b numbers (as well as BB/HBP) are the same. That means that you can't roll a triple on Devers' card (nor can you roll a HBP). That's because Devers had zero triples and zero HBP this year. In order for you to get a triple for Devers, it has to be rolled on the pitcher's card. Here are two pitchers' cards.

Sale
HR 018
3b 023
2b 058
1b 165
BB 220
HBP 243
K 627
G 780
F 000

Pomeranz
HR 035
3b 038
2b 102
1b 253
BB 381
HBP 392
K 584
G 784
F 000

So a 355 roll is a strikeout for Sale and a walk for Pomeranz. A 247 roll is a strikeout for Sale and a single for Pomeranz. A 600 roll is a strikeout for Sale and a ground out for Pomeranz. If say Pomeranz were facing Devers (obviously they're teammates, but just to show how this works), Devers could get a triple ONLY if 036, 037, or 038 were rolled *using Pomeranz'* card.

We determine which card is used by simultaneously rolling two six-sided dice (one for the batter, one for the pitcher). The die with the higher number represents which card we are going to use. In the case of a tie, if it's a same-side matchup (R/R or L/L), we use the pitcher's card and if it's an opposite side matchup (R/L or L/R) we use the batter's card.

This game is WAY WAY WAY simpler than stratomatic. That's on purpose. I love stratomatic, but it's very complicated. I wanted to create something easy to use so that I could play a game in 10-15 minutes or less. This is super simple (I could make a variation using actual L-R splits, but that's a lot more work) and very fun to play and yet after a full season, the season-ending stats are remarkably similar to their actual stats the cards are based off of.

I had fun and years ago made single-year player cards for some of the all-time greats. Ruth, Maris, Yaz, etc. Some of their numbers are just insane. Anyway, this is a very fun way to play baseball games for anyone who likes board games and who likes baseball.

And yes, I'd love to market it but have NO idea how to do that or if it's even worth it. I think there's a market for it somewhere though.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,711
Anyway, sorry for that - disregard the sim stuff if you aren't into it. Just answering brandonchristensen's question.

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
 

Wingack

Yankee Mod
Moderator
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Jul 14, 2005
34,569
In The Quivering Forest
I just ran a sim in my head and we took this one 8-3 with Severino falling apart in the 5th. Oh and Kimbrel let in an inherited runner after coming in to a bases loaded 8th.
Yankees wouldn’t let Sevy fall a part in the fifth. If a batter gets on, in comes Betances or Green.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,563
Mine is a percentage based dice game. I obviously had to be the manager of both teams but tried to be realistic in the decisions I made. It's a little hard to describe here, but I took the player stats and plotted them out over 1,000 plate appearances. Using three ten-sided dice (red, white, and blue), a player card looks like this:

Betts
HR 052
3b 060
2b 137
1b 293
BB 425
HBP 438
K 586
G 715
F 000

So roll the three dice. Red 2, White 7, Blue 1 = 271. 271 fits between the 137 and 293 on Betts' card, and therefore that's a single. I then have a separate chart indicating where the single lands and whether it's a soft single or a hard single. That matters, obviously, if you have a runner at second say, and the difference between hitting a hard single to left or a soft single to right center is the difference between scoring that runner from second or not. Also a separate chart indicating where grounders and flies/pops go.

Here's Devers playing card, to see how different it is from Betts

Devers
HR 043
3b 043 (meaning that his card cannot produce a triple; more on that in a moment)
2b 092
1b 220
BB 298
HBP 298
K 545
G 766
F 000

That same 271 roll for Devers is a walk instead of a single for Betts. A roll of 050 is a homer for Betts but a double for Devers. A roll of 393 is a walk for Betts and a strikeout for Devers.

Now, you see that the HR and 3b numbers (as well as BB/HBP) are the same. That means that you can't roll a triple on Devers' card (nor can you roll a HBP). That's because Devers had zero triples and zero HBP this year. In order for you to get a triple for Devers, it has to be rolled on the pitcher's card. Here are two pitchers' cards.

Sale
HR 018
3b 023
2b 058
1b 165
BB 220
HBP 243
K 627
G 780
F 000

Pomeranz
HR 035
3b 038
2b 102
1b 253
BB 381
HBP 392
K 584
G 784
F 000

So a 355 roll is a strikeout for Sale and a walk for Pomeranz. A 247 roll is a strikeout for Sale and a single for Pomeranz. A 600 roll is a strikeout for Sale and a ground out for Pomeranz. If say Pomeranz were facing Devers (obviously they're teammates, but just to show how this works), Devers could get a triple ONLY if 036, 037, or 038 were rolled *using Pomeranz'* card.

We determine which card is used by simultaneously rolling two six-sided dice (one for the batter, one for the pitcher). The die with the higher number represents which card we are going to use. In the case of a tie, if it's a same-side matchup (R/R or L/L), we use the pitcher's card and if it's an opposite side matchup (R/L or L/R) we use the batter's card.

This game is WAY WAY WAY simpler than stratomatic. That's on purpose. I love stratomatic, but it's very complicated. I wanted to create something easy to use so that I could play a game in 10-15 minutes or less. This is super simple (I could make a variation using actual L-R splits, but that's a lot more work) and very fun to play and yet after a full season, the season-ending stats are remarkably similar to their actual stats the cards are based off of.

I had fun and years ago made single-year player cards for some of the all-time greats. Ruth, Maris, Yaz, etc. Some of their numbers are just insane. Anyway, this is a very fun way to play baseball games for anyone who likes board games and who likes baseball.

And yes, I'd love to market it but have NO idea how to do that or if it's even worth it. I think there's a market for it somewhere though.
Thank you for the breakdown, it answered everything I was wondering.

That's really awesome and makes a lot of sense. Of course, that's why they play the game - but I can see how you find the fun in that!
 

[icon]

Member
Jul 30, 2005
230
Memphis, TN
Yankees wouldn’t let Sevy fall a part in the fifth. If a batter gets on, in comes Betances or Green.
Get out of my head. It's my sim. ;)

Sidenote, you from NYC? I'll be up there Thurs>Sun and looking for a Sox bar in midtown/downtown for Game 5 (assuming we get there). Professor Thom's still the spot?
 

[icon]

Member
Jul 30, 2005
230
Memphis, TN
Yanks bats have been lucky (solid, but on the lucky side of variance).
Yanks pen has been lucky (again, solid lucky)
Statistically that should regress but short term variance is a bitch.

To point out the obvious that has already been stated, we're gifting too many bases and are making key errors. Until we fix that, we're toast.

PROS:
Eovaldi has held MFY to 1HR and like 5 XBH in 81AB (albeit most of that in the toilet).
Brockstar and Devers coming in for potentially a much needed offensive spark.
BABIP Regression looming?

CONS:
Severino is tough at home, and while the Sox have worked him for his highest WHIP of any team, most of that was in Fenway (1.9X vs ~1.0X Split)
Game is in the toilet

Going to be an interesting game...
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,694
I believe this Sox team is tough and they've got the right skipper. They may go down but I don't see them doing so meekly, and I all but expect them to win at least one of these YS games.

The Red Sox are 1-3 historically in playoff series against the Yankees (1-5 if you count 1949 and 1978). I don't think the payback is complete yet - 2004 was exquisite but it was still only one time they've gotten past them. Time to fold, spindle and mutilate those pinstriped goons.
 

Harry Hooper

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Jan 4, 2002
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Since someone mentioned Strat-o-Matic and we've got time to kill before the game tonight:

Rex Ryan is a Strat-o-Matic obsessive

I first learned of Ryan’s fixation with Strat-O-Matic when I started covering the Jets about two years ago, during an introductory chat in his office. Like many baseball-obsessed kids of his generation, Ryan played APBA, another dice game, but it was not realistic enough for him. Into that void rushed Strat-O-Matic, which also accounted for a player’s defensive ability. Ryan found himself captivated by minutiae: Roberto Clemente’s throwing arm was so powerful that it merited a grade beyond the traditional scale.

“That’s, like, impossible,” Ryan said. “The best is minus-5, and he’s a minus-6? Those are the things I would look at.” It added to Ryan’s experience as a fan, intensifying his connection to the sport he adored.

NFL Films piece on same topic
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
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Gallows Hill
I believe this Sox team is tough and they've got the right skipper. They may go down but I don't see them doing so meekly, and I all but expect them to win at least one of these YS games.

The Red Sox are 1-3 historically in playoff series against the Yankees (1-5 if you count 1949 and 1978). I don't think the payback is complete yet - 2004 was exquisite but it was still only one time they've gotten past them. Time to fold, spindle and mutilate those pinstriped goons.
1-2. 99 & 03. They beat them in 04.
 

Doctor G

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 24, 2007
2,331
Tonight is the Dont let us win tonight game.Ready for extra innings.There is always one with Yanks.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
There is no way Holt can be sat.
Nunez has good numbers vs CC so I expect him in.
Rick has been the most vocal in his support of Sandy so I do think he starts but if they are behind he'll be pinch hit for early.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,602
I guess stick Holt at 3rd, and he can shift to 2nd or 1st as the game dictates.

I don't love Holt at 3rd but he's OK there and he cannot be sat.
 

Humphrey

Member
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Aug 3, 2010
3,202
There is no way Holt can be sat.
Nunez has good numbers vs CC so I expect him in.
Rick has been the most vocal in his support of Sandy so I do think he starts but if they are behind he'll be pinch hit for early.
At this point it's selfish of any pitcher to want Leon out there. If my addition is correct he is 3 for his last 57, and 4 for his last 58 in terms of OBP. That would be .053 and .069 BA and OBP respectively. Most starting pitchers hit better than that.
 

twibnotes

Member
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Jul 16, 2005
20,354
At this point it's selfish of any pitcher to want Leon out there. If my addition is correct he is 3 for his last 57, and 4 for his last 58 in terms of OBP. That would be .053 and .069 BA and OBP respectively. Most starting pitchers hit better than that.
Selfish!?

If a pitcher thinks he’ll pitch better to Leon, that’s just honesty, not selfishness
 

PortageeExpress

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Austin, TX
At this point it's selfish of any pitcher to want Leon out there. If my addition is correct he is 3 for his last 57, and 4 for his last 58 in terms of OBP. That would be .053 and .069 BA and OBP respectively. Most starting pitchers hit better than that.
Did you watch game 1? He put on a clinic. It's not all about offense.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
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Cora schedules player days off in advance and he does not alter those because a player gets "hot."

Tonight's lineup was written out yesterday and has been sealed in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall's front porch ever since.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
One of the biggest takeaways from this game is the lack of bullpen use. Only two pitchers used after an off day only allowing one base runner. Given the state of this bullpen, the extra day off for most of these guys could potentially be of some benefit.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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One of the biggest takeaways from this game is the lack of bullpen use. Only two pitchers used after an off day only allowing one base runner. Given the state of this bullpen, the extra day off for most of these guys could potentially be of some benefit.
If everyone is available, Cora can do what he did in Game 1 if he has to -- keep cycling through guys til he finds the right one.
Who knows. We might even see Price get a big out along the way.
 

Todd Benzinger

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Aug 23, 2001
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Selfish!?

If a pitcher thinks he’ll pitch better to Leon, that’s just honesty, not selfishness
Sandy is OPSing over 1000 vs CC (3 for 10 with an hr and 3BB--the hr was at the toilet IIRC), so I personally think it would be crazy to sit him for this game.

Plus, anything that gives Porcello a chance to be at his best is worth doing.

The Brockstar only has 4 PA vs CC (0/3 with a bb); Kinsler has been OK/solid (.318 obp; 439 slg, 2 hr in 41 AB) Both Devers (.250/400/.250) & Nunez (313/353/313) have decent OBP but have only hit singles against him. So--if Cora wants to sneak in the Brockstar, given his crazy hot hand and insane recent power surge in the Toilet, 3B looks best... Bennie, JBJ, and JD (looking at likely starters) have the worst numbers against CC, but the idea of sitting one of the OFers in favor of Holt against this Yanks squad seems foolhardy at best. (Vaz and Moreland have terrible numbers in limited ABs).

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Jul 13, 2005
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Pittsburgh, PA
Sandy is OPSing over 1000 vs CC (3 for 10 with an hr and 3BB--the hr was at the toilet IIRC), so I personally think it would be crazy to sit him for this game.

Plus, anything that gives Porcello a chance to be at his best is worth doing.

The Brockstar only has 4 PA vs CC (0/3 with a bb); Kinsler has been OK/solid (.318 obp; 439 slg, 2 hr in 41 AB) Both Devers (.250/400/.250) & Nunez (313/353/313) have decent OBP but have only hit singles against him. So--if Cora wants to sneak in the Brockstar, given his crazy hot hand and insane recent power surge in the Toilet, 3B looks best... Bennie, JBJ, and JD (looking at likely starters) have the worst numbers against CC, but the idea of sitting one of the OFers in favor of Holt against this Yanks squad seems foolhardy at best. (Vaz and Moreland have terrible numbers in limited ABs).

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia
 

Humphrey

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Aug 3, 2010
3,202
Did you watch game 1? He put on a clinic. It's not all about offense.
Yeah, if you can assure me that the Sox will be up 3-0 before Leon goes up there with his wiffle ball bat (like Friday night), then I am with you. Or want to put him in later in the game with a lead, fine with that. Otherwise, not so much.
If the Sox are fortunate enough to advance to the Fall Classic, then the first two times through the order they basically bat 7?
 

[icon]

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Jul 30, 2005
230
Memphis, TN
If Porcello feels more comfortable throwing to Leon, then I think you need to start Leon.
Indeed. I would think the leverage of 5-6 innings of improved SP performance trumps the expected leverage of 4 subpar ABs out of the 9 hole.

When you factor in the fact that he actually hits CC pretty well, it's a no brainer.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
Cora schedules player days off in advance and he does not alter those because a player gets "hot."

Tonight's lineup was written out yesterday and has been sealed in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall's front porch ever since.
Are you saying Cora is giving guys rest days in the playoffs? Or just making a point about how he plans things in advance. Because I think there is a difference between scheduled days off for guys during the 162 and the ALDS. With built in rest days during a series, I doubt ‘resting’ a guy is factoring into who is playing as much as matchups, RH v LH, etc.

I think who is hot definitely factors into the lineup tonight.
 

Bleedred

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Feb 21, 2001
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Indeed. I would think the leverage of 5-6 innings of improved SP performance trumps the expected leverage of 4 subpar ABs out of the 9 hole.

When you factor in the fact that he actually hits CC pretty well, it's a no brainer.
I know pitchers are quirky about the catchers they throw to, but is there any statistical analysis to suggest that Porcello is a better pitcher throwing to Sandy Leon? Porcello won the Cy Young with Sandy catching. He also sucked the following year with Sandy catching. Sandy is a fine defensive catcher and had a good game 1 behind the plate, but as noted above, he's an automatic out at bat. Cora, in his on-field 3rd inning interview said that they put Vazquez in the line-up because, among other reasons, he puts the ball in play. He didn't say "puts the ball in play more often than Sandy" but that was the clear implication. Is Sandy's defense so demonstrably better than Vazquez that he MUST catch tonight? Of course, if the manager thinks Porcello will be much better with Sandy, then I'd go with Sandy, but I think this notion of Sandy's defense being so off the charts that he should get more starts is being overplayed here, particularly in light of his catastrophically bad hitting.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Jul 21, 2005
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Cora schedules player days off in advance and he does not alter those because a player gets "hot."

Tonight's lineup was written out yesterday and has been sealed in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall's front porch ever since.
About a third of SoSH got the Funk and Wagnall's reference. We're old.

I would hope that playoff Cora is more flexible than regular season Cora based on how the series is progressing, etc. Holt is coming off an historic night and in '18 he hit lefties better than righties for average (.292 vs. .273 although is OPS is lower at .718 vs. .788). I think he should be in there somewhere.
 

deanx0

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Are you saying Cora is giving guys rest days in the playoffs? Or just making a point about how he plans things in advance. Because I think there is a difference between scheduled days off for guys during the 162 and the ALDS. With built in rest days during a series, I doubt ‘resting’ a guy is factoring into who is playing as much as matchups, RH v LH, etc.

I think who is hot definitely factors into the lineup tonight.
I think he was kidding--the Mayo jar tipped me off.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,711
On WEEI this morning they were talking about how Darling was talking about how Benintendi broke some unwritten rule during this game. Can anyone share what they're talking about? I have no clue.