ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up

EdRalphRomero

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Oct 3, 2007
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Fangraphs at least showed their work. Based on WAR, the Yankees are the 108 win team.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rating-all-the-playoff-teams-2/
Which...sure I guess that is plausible. Even granting that though, how would a 108 win team (MFY) facing a 106 win team where the 106 win team has home field advantage be a 53\47 favorite? Two wins over the regular season represents enough of a talent disparity to overcome HFA and become 6 percentage point favorites?
 

DeadlySplitter

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Trot Nixon has been announced to throw the first pitch. wouldn't surprise me if Papi appears though
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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Looking at the WeatherUnderground the temperatures should be in the 50's with NE winds around 10 mph for both tomorrow and Saturday nights. I know those conditions shouldn't affect the game, but how cool/windy would it have to be to make a difference?
 

sean1562

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I really really hope Price throws a great Game 2. That would do so much for the series, and so much for his "rep"(bad in the playoffs/vs Yankees) and we can move on and no have to hear any of that anymore. If he does poorly we will have article after article about it
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I listened to WEEI for a bit today, and man, not much confidence in Sale, Price or the Sox.

I think Sox take this in 4.
 

jon abbey

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Which...sure I guess that is plausible. Even granting that though, how would a 108 win team (MFY) facing a 106 win team where the 106 win team has home field advantage be a 53\47 favorite? Two wins over the regular season represents enough of a talent disparity to overcome HFA and become 6 percentage point favorites?
They have the Indians favored over the Astros by the same margin, pretty hard to take seriously IMO.
 

Byrdbrain

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lI still do not pitch to their emotional catalyst in a playoof game.
That sounds like a horrible idea but luckily I'm 100% certain that isn't in the game plan.
They may pitch around him in some very specific spots but they aren't giving him the full Bonds treatment.
 

lapa

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Apr 20, 2018
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If you look at MLBs position for position comparison the Yankees are pretty clearly ahead of us, despite how the regular season played out. It’s going to be close (probably I mean you never know it could be a blowout either way if this or that chip falls just right or wrong ) and intense. I hope Sale is ON and that the bats get it done
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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This place will be in full panic mode if Sale loses today, because the confidence level in Price won't be high, and the Sox will be down 1-0, and the Yankees will have taken HFA.

So....it's pretty important that the Sox win tonight.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
That sounds like a horrible idea but luckily I'm 100% certain that isn't in the game plan.
They may pitch around him in some very specific spots but they aren't giving him the full Bonds treatment.
I think somebody should definitely track down Sale in the clubhouse this afternoon and let him know that he should under no circumstances go after a guy that he's utterly dominated in the past, because "emotional catalyst." Be sure to get video of his response.
 

TheoShmeo

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This place will be in full panic mode if Sale loses today, because the confidence level in Price won't be high, and the Sox will be down 1-0, and the Yankees will have taken HFA.

So....it's pretty important that the Sox win tonight.
I don't mean to quibble but the problem will not be that SoSH is in panic mode. It will be that there will be a serious and reasonable need for concern if the Sox lose game 1. Logically, Price should be able to win Game 2 regardless of what happens in Game 1. He's very good at pitching. But we also know that his record as a playoff starter includes zero wins and that he's generally been bad against NY. Price getting blown up in Game 2 should surprise no one.

So yeah, I think tonight is hugely important. Make no mistake, I'll keep watching if the Sox lose this one. But the jump ball that I see right now will become something a lot less than that if the Sox/Sale can't get it done.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't mean to quibble but the problem will not be that SoSH is in panic mode. It will be that there will be a serious and reasonable need for concern if the Sox lose game 1. Logically, Price should be able to win Game 2 regardless of what happens in Game 1. He's very good at pitching. But we also know that his record as a playoff starter includes zero wins and that he's generally been bad against NY. Price getting blown up in Game 2 should surprise no one.

So yeah, I think tonight is hugely important. Make no mistake, I'll keep watching if the Sox lose this one. But the jump ball that I see right now will become something a lot less than that if the Sox/Sale can't get it done.
Well obviously it doesn't matter to the Red Sox if SoSH is in panic mode. Fan message boards don't make Mookie hit fastballs better or make Price hit the corners with his cutter more often.

Losing game 1 with Sale is a huge problem for the Red Sox so yeah, best to avoid that. But the point remains...if Boston loses tonight, this place will be a madhouse (more than it normally is even).
 

mfried

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Well obviously it doesn't matter to the Red Sox if SoSH is in panic mode. Fan message boards don't make Mookie hit fastballs better or make Price hit the corners with his cutter more often.

Losing game 1 with Sale is a huge problem for the Red Sox so yeah, best to avoid that. But the point remains...if Boston loses tonight, this place will be a madhouse (more than it normally is even).
I hate the idea that the whole series is really on the skinny shoulders of our tallest lefty. Too much of a burden.
 

WestMassExpat

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This place will be in full panic mode if Sale loses today, because the confidence level in Price won't be high, and the Sox will be down 1-0, and the Yankees will have taken HFA.

So....it's pretty important that the Sox win tonight.
So you're saying it's pretty important to win game 1 in a short series.

Price has limited postseason innings the last few years to have a meaningful sample, IMO. And his WHIP and Ks have still been OK.

They're going to get on vs. Sale and Price. This team has the punches to go toe-to-toe. I'd take Sale and Price vs. Happ and Tanaka in a short series knowing their recent performance every day of the week.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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If you look at MLBs position for position comparison the Yankees are pretty clearly ahead of us, despite how the regular season played out. It’s going to be close (probably I mean you never know it could be a blowout either way if this or that chip falls just right or wrong ) and intense. I hope Sale is ON and that the bats get it done
Their rankings are a joke ... Yanks have a large advantage at C, because Sanchez despite being able to play zero defense and hitting .186, was good in 2016/17? Yanks have a better rotation?? On what planet? Severino has ace stuff. Happ has done well vs Sox, but isn't in the same category talent wise as Sale or Price ... Tanaka is not good, and CC weighs more than his ERA.

Boston starters may shit the bed for a 3rd straight postseason, but they have a clear advantage in the rotation.

Yanks have the clear pen advantage, minus Kimbrel.

Offenses - Sox are better overall, I think, but Yanks are pretty much just as good.

Defense - Sox have a huge advantage here IMO. At C, in most IF positions, and in the OF.

Hoping the Sox will be aggressive on the basepaths. They should be able to steal at will.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Say what you want about Sanchez, but he's got a good arm. Not so sure stealing at will is in the books.

Who do you start at 3rd tonight? It has to be Nunez, right? Do you throw Devers 2.0 out there against Happ?

He's 2-12 against him with no extra base hits and 2 K's.

Nunez 8-32 with 2 doubles and 4 K's.
 
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NJ_Sox_Fan

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Say what you want about Sanchez, but he's got a good arm. Not so sure stealing at will is in the books.

Who do you start at 3rd tonight? It has to be Nunez, right? Do you throw Devers 2.0 out there against Happ?
Maybe not off Sanchez, but when they put Romine in for D, they can.
 

Doctor G

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I think somebody should definitely track down Sale in the clubhouse this afternoon and let him know that he should under no circumstances go after a guy that he's utterly dominated in the past, because "emotional catalyst." Be sure to get video of his response.
I just dont want to see his respinse if the question is did you consider pitching around Judge.
 

Beale13

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I have trouble imagining an impending Sox/Yankee playoff series where a Yankee infield error does not have huge impact on a game.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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This place will be in full panic mode if Sale loses today, because the confidence level in Price won't be high, and the Sox will be down 1-0, and the Yankees will have taken HFA.

So....it's pretty important that the Sox win tonight.
It’s odd to say a Game 1 is a must win, but it sure feels like it. Now watch us lose Game 1 and win the next 3 to prove me wrong. Lol.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Say what you want about Sanchez, but he's got a good arm. Not so sure stealing at will is in the books.

Who do you start at 3rd tonight? It has to be Nunez, right? Do you throw Devers 2.0 out there against Happ?

He's 2-12 against him with no extra base hits and 2 K's.

Nunez 8-32 with 2 doubles and 4 K's.
Hopefully Nunez.
 

BaseballJones

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So you're saying it's pretty important to win game 1 in a short series.
Yes, but not just because it's a short series and every game is important. Mainly because Price has been very shaky in the postseason and against the Yankees, and then games 3 and 4 are in New York, where they'll have to face Severino. So I think game 1 takes on greater importance in this particular series.
 

Al Zarilla

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Turn on MLBN and again get the “Boston will lose (the ALDS) because Sale isn’t right.” I don’t remember going into an ALDS with so many talking heads picking against the Sox. Interview with Sale and he said he should be able to win a game with whatever stuff he has. Not a great confidence building statement there, but it might have been after his last start against Baltimore. Well, the favorite role in 2016 didn’t do any good, so maybe the underdog role will be a charm. Show a 2001 Patriots season video to the guys, Alex.
 

TheoShmeo

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Turn on MLBN and again get the “Boston will lose (the ALDS) because Sale isn’t right.” I don’t remember going into an ALDS with so many talking heads picking against the Sox. Interview with Sale and he said he should be able to win a game with whatever stuff he has. Not a great confidence building statement there, but it might have been after his last start against Baltimore. Well, the favorite role in 2016 didn’t do any good, so maybe the underdog role will be a charm. Show a 2001 Patriots season video to the guys, Alex.
I'm with you in spirit but I'm dubious that the chippy underdog angle with respect to 108 win team will resonate with anyone. It's enough to overcome any added pressure which comes with so many wins. Not that I worry too much about the latter. Just saying that if anything, despite what the talking heads are saying, it goes the other way with this team. They have the pressure of being the winningest.
 

manny

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Jul 24, 2005
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Turn on MLBN and again get the “Boston will lose (the ALDS) because Sale isn’t right.” I don’t remember going into an ALDS with so many talking heads picking against the Sox. Interview with Sale and he said he should be able to win a game with whatever stuff he has. Not a great confidence building statement there, but it might have been after his last start against Baltimore. Well, the favorite role in 2016 didn’t do any good, so maybe the underdog role will be a charm. Show a 2001 Patriots season video to the guys, Alex.
Based on all the chatter, you would think Happ is the Cy Young contender and Sale is the one with a 3.98 FIP. I get Sale's health is the reason for this, but seems like the consensus is that the Sox should fear Happ and pray that Sale keeps them in the game.
 

BaseballJones

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As a hobby, I make games. Mainly, statistics-based dice games, because I'm old school and prefer those over video games. Just played game 1 of Red Sox-Yankees with presumed starting lineups. Here was the outcome.

Sox 2, Yankees 1

Happ went 6 innings, giving up just 3 hits, but two of them were solo homers by Betts (3rd inning) and Pearce (7th inning).

Sale went 7 shutout innings, giving up 4 hits and two walks, with 9 strikeouts. Barnes came in and gave up two hits in the 8th but got a key DP by McCutchen. Kimbrel gave up a one-out homer to Gregorius in the 9th but got Sanchez on a ground out and Voit on a K to end the game. NY had 7 hits but couldn't string them together, their best threat being off Barnes in the 8th. Boston did very little but Betts' and Pearce's homers were enough to take game 1.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe not off Sanchez, but when they put Romine in for D, they can.
I don’t think this will happen, it didn’t in the wild card game and they made three other defensive replacements there. Sanchez has trouble blocking pitches at times but he is better at framing and throwing than Romine, plus obviously a much more dangerous bat despite his mostly shitty season.
 

E5 Yaz

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As a hobby, I make games. Mainly, statistics-based dice games, because I'm old school and prefer those over video games. Just played game 1 of Red Sox-Yankees with presumed starting lineups. Here was the outcome.

Sox 2, Yankees 1

Happ went 6 innings, giving up just 3 hits, but two of them were solo homers by Betts (3rd inning) and Pearce (7th inning).

Sale went 7 shutout innings, giving up 4 hits and two walks, with 9 strikeouts. Barnes came in and gave up two hits in the 8th but got a key DP by McCutchen. Kimbrel gave up a one-out homer to Gregorius in the 9th but got Sanchez on a ground out and Voit on a K to end the game. NY had 7 hits but couldn't string them together, their best threat being off Barnes in the 8th. Boston did very little but Betts' and Pearce's homers were enough to take game 1.
Did this game take you 4.5 hours? Otherwise, your simulation might not play out this way
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Did this game take you 4.5 hours? Otherwise, your simulation might not play out this way
Haha... just took me 10 minutes to do. It's almost certainly not gonna play out this way anyway, as my game really works better for an entire season - that's when it's most statistically accurate.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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As a hobby, I make games. Mainly, statistics-based dice games, because I'm old school and prefer those over video games. Just played game 1 of Red Sox-Yankees with presumed starting lineups. Here was the outcome.

Sox 2, Yankees 1

Happ went 6 innings, giving up just 3 hits, but two of them were solo homers by Betts (3rd inning) and Pearce (7th inning).

Sale went 7 shutout innings, giving up 4 hits and two walks, with 9 strikeouts. Barnes came in and gave up two hits in the 8th but got a key DP by McCutchen. Kimbrel gave up a one-out homer to Gregorius in the 9th but got Sanchez on a ground out and Voit on a K to end the game. NY had 7 hits but couldn't string them together, their best threat being off Barnes in the 8th. Boston did very little but Betts' and Pearce's homers were enough to take game 1.
Happ goes 6 but gives up a hr in the 7th?
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Yankees crossed the hotel workers' picket line at the Ritz.
Yeah, I saw this in a story this morning. Who the hell is the Yankees' player rep? The MLBPA should be on his ass. Union members should not be crossing pickets lines. How would they feel if fans crossed their picket line to attend scab games?
 

mfried

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Nov 23, 2005
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As a hobby, I make games. Mainly, statistics-based dice games, because I'm old school and prefer those over video games. Just played game 1 of Red Sox-Yankees with presumed starting lineups. Here was the outcome.

Sox 2, Yankees 1

Happ went 6 innings, giving up just 3 hits, but two of them were solo homers by Betts (3rd inning) and Pearce (7th inning).

Sale went 7 shutout innings, giving up 4 hits and two walks, with 9 strikeouts. Barnes came in and gave up two hits in the 8th but got a key DP by McCutchen. Kimbrel gave up a one-out homer to Gregorius in the 9th but got Sanchez on a ground out and Voit on a K to end the game. NY had 7 hits but couldn't string them together, their best threat being off Barnes in the 8th. Boston did very little but Betts' and Pearce's homers were enough to take game 1.
I’ll take this version any day.