re, CC: looking great against the Orioles is a criterion?
I would say JBJ is a top candidate for an X factor on our side
I would say JBJ is a top candidate for an X factor on our side
ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
His last two starts were good, but has been spotty in the 2nd half of the year. If it's a position where the Yankees are down 2-1 I can easily see Happ in there for Sabathia. If they are up 2-1, then CC could start with Happ backing him up.
I'll start:
Defense
Leon over Sanchez
Moreland over Voit
Kinsler over Torres
Andujar / Devers a wash
Bogaerts / Gregorius a wash
Benintendi over McCutchen
Bradley over Hicks
Betts over Judge
(edge Boston - no surprise)
Offense (I'm assuming NYY lineup)
Betts over McCutchen
Judge over Benintendi
Martinez over Hicks
Stanton over Bogaerts
Voit over Moreland
Gregorius over Kinsler
Andujar over Devers
Sanchez over Leon
Torres over Bradley
Taken that way...doesn't look so good.
I'm stupid.
Defense
Leon over Sanchez
Moreland over Voit
Kinsler over Torres
Andujar / Devers a wash
Bogaerts / Gregorius a wash
Benintendi over McCutchen
Bradley over Hicks
Betts over Judge
(edge Boston - no surprise)
Offense (I'm assuming NYY lineup)
Betts over McCutchen
Judge over Benintendi
Martinez over Hicks
Stanton over Bogaerts
Voit over Moreland
Gregorius over Kinsler
Andujar over Devers
Sanchez over Leon
Torres over Bradley
Taken that way...doesn't look so good.
I'm stupid.
Gotcha. I just think that the talent difference between Judge and Betts is much closer than the current numbers indicate, and much closer than Bradley/Stanton.
I don't see why y'all are so intimidated by Happ. Has he had some good starts against Boston? Sure. He's a fine starter. He's also gotten roughed up a few times.
Part of his apparent success against Boston is because — after an E4 — he gave up a single, an RBI groundout, a wild pitch, a walk, and a noted Mookie Betts grand slam. And he has another URA So that means he has a 1.99 ERA in four starts against Boston this season, but a 4.37 R/9. Now, it's a truism that if you give a big league offense an extra out, they'll make you pay — that's the case for all pitchers. But Happ really fell apart in that inning against the bottom of the Sox order, and then Betts cashed it in.
All I'm trying to say is that NY faced Sale three times, including in September. He pitched 16 IP in those starts, allowing a single run (a Judge solo shot) and a dozen baserunners against 20 strikeouts. But Happ is scary?
Part of his apparent success against Boston is because — after an E4 — he gave up a single, an RBI groundout, a wild pitch, a walk, and a noted Mookie Betts grand slam. And he has another URA So that means he has a 1.99 ERA in four starts against Boston this season, but a 4.37 R/9. Now, it's a truism that if you give a big league offense an extra out, they'll make you pay — that's the case for all pitchers. But Happ really fell apart in that inning against the bottom of the Sox order, and then Betts cashed it in.
All I'm trying to say is that NY faced Sale three times, including in September. He pitched 16 IP in those starts, allowing a single run (a Judge solo shot) and a dozen baserunners against 20 strikeouts. But Happ is scary?
Mookie just had the only season since the strike to break up Bonds 2001 - 2004 as the highest single season WAR.
Fangraphs WAR from 1994-2018
Judge's season last year is 50th. He's a fantastic player, but Betts just had a historic season.
Please. Give me our lineup any day of the week. Betts and JD are a better combo than Judge/Stanton and we have X and Beni as well.
I think Sale will be fine and I’m not worried about Kimbrel closing out games.
This series is going to hinge on Barnes, Brasier, and Wright out of the pen as well as Price in the rotation. I’m putting my complete faith in Price to get the job done when he takes the mound for game 2. If Sale can do his thing then I’m gonna guess we’ll be in good shape.
Bring these fuckers on.
The September one was against the Mets, not the Yankees. Sale dominated NY on June 30 (6 of the 9 hitters he'll face tomorrow) and pitched well against them in early April (5 of the 9 hitters he'll face tomorrow), they haven't seen each other since the June 30 game.
So much of this is about Sale and Price on Friday and Saturday. If they pitch well into or thru the 7th, in games 1 and 2, I like our chances.
Quick check on Sale's brooksbaseball page -- showing him as being very good while sitting at 93/94 in 2012 and 2016 -- gives me hope. Oddly, it seems he has never thrown harder than he did this summer. Chris Sale doesnt need 98 to be great. He does need to be healthy.
I think we will score at home against Happ and Tanaka.
Obviously I do not like our chances in an extended bullpen battle especially if we have to come from behind. I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the ability of Wright, Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrell to close out a lead in the last 2-3 innings. Ideally Edro and Wright are available for early and extended duty if needed in Game 3 and/or 4 (if nec'y) and we steal one in that stupid Yankee band box.
Quick check on Sale's brooksbaseball page -- showing him as being very good while sitting at 93/94 in 2012 and 2016 -- gives me hope. Oddly, it seems he has never thrown harder than he did this summer. Chris Sale doesnt need 98 to be great. He does need to be healthy.
I think we will score at home against Happ and Tanaka.
Obviously I do not like our chances in an extended bullpen battle especially if we have to come from behind. I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the ability of Wright, Brasier, Barnes, Kimbrell to close out a lead in the last 2-3 innings. Ideally Edro and Wright are available for early and extended duty if needed in Game 3 and/or 4 (if nec'y) and we steal one in that stupid Yankee band box.
Yep, wOBA leaders:
- Mookie .449
- Trout .447
- JD .427
- Yellich .422
- Bregman .396
Maybe but, you know, the slam was against Toronto Happ.
Boone’s HR only resulted in Josh F’ing Beckett slapping his whaddayacallit in their face.
In a five-game series between two good teams that are so evenly matched, I would not be surprised at any outcome. The health of Sale is such an X-factor.
If this goes 5 games, I don't see this as being one of those series where the home team wins every game - I could easily see both teams winning a game in the other team's park. I also don't see the futility from the last two postseasons having any carryover effect - this team seems mentally tough from the manager on down.
If this goes 5 games, I don't see this as being one of those series where the home team wins every game - I could easily see both teams winning a game in the other team's park. I also don't see the futility from the last two postseasons having any carryover effect - this team seems mentally tough from the manager on down.
Thinking Eovaldi could be our X factor in this one.
He is likely the first guy up in game 1 and the game 4 starter.
If he continues to do what he has done against NY this year (excluding his TB outing) that sets us up well.
If he pitches like he did against just about any other team we are in serious trouble.
He is likely the first guy up in game 1 and the game 4 starter.
If he continues to do what he has done against NY this year (excluding his TB outing) that sets us up well.
If he pitches like he did against just about any other team we are in serious trouble.
Sox facing Happ doesn't scare me. They've seen enough of him, including twice in the last three weeks. He's good but I suspect that familiarity could help them.
Just loaded up my Game 4 2004 ALCS DVD.
Derek Lowe's movement is unbelievable.
EDIT
Are the game threads from 2004 gone? The archives on this site is empty
I'd love to read them again.
Derek Lowe's movement is unbelievable.
EDIT
Are the game threads from 2004 gone? The archives on this site is empty
I'd love to read them again.
Last edited:
Yep. We need him to be the bridge to get us to the 8th inning from the starter. Definite X factor.
Mark Bellhorn and Curtis Leskanic would be fun. They haven't been around the club for awhile.
http://champagne.atspace.org/Just loaded up my Game 4 2004 ALCS DVD.
Derek Lowe's movement is unbelievable.
EDIT
Are the game threads from 2004 gone? The archives on this site is empty
threads for every game with comments from here and MFYfans.com
Funny you mention them. There's a pretty good chance that many of the things that end up being important will not be on anyone's pre-series list of things that will be important.
My electoral experience suggests 538 is best at predicting Obama victories. Based on that alone I would apply a healthy discount to his baseball work.
Fangraphs has us as decided underdogs vs Yanks with the lowest odds in the AL of getting to and winning the WS. The Indians 91 wins out of the AL central impress them more.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
I mean we are lucky to be in the same field as such Gods as the Yanks.
Triple slash line August/Sept: Bos 270/347/451 Yanks 236/322/440.
Bbref bullpen Wins Above Average: Red Sox 3.8 (2nd AL) Yanks 2.3 (4th).
We are rooting for an under-rated 108 win team.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
I mean we are lucky to be in the same field as such Gods as the Yanks.
Triple slash line August/Sept: Bos 270/347/451 Yanks 236/322/440.
Bbref bullpen Wins Above Average: Red Sox 3.8 (2nd AL) Yanks 2.3 (4th).
We are rooting for an under-rated 108 win team.
I am going with Kinsler.Playoff baseball belongs to second basemen.Hail Marty Barrett Bill Mazeroski.
Fangraphs at least showed their work. Based on WAR, the Yankees are the 108 win team.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rating-all-the-playoff-teams-2/
NYYBombshell
10/17/2004 0:51 am
Get out the brooms folks, we'll be doing some sweeping at Fenway tomorrow!
NYYBombshell
10/17/2004 0:56 am
No team in the history of Major League Baseball has ever, ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a post season series. I like our chances.
Putting baserunners on with the strength of that lineup top to bottom seems like a poor strategy.
Judge is 13-18 against Sale.
In case it's not obvious, the 13 are strikeouts, not hits.
Off of this, the Yankees are a combined 9-for-48 with 1 ER, 19 K's and 1 BB(.188/.220/.250) against Sale this year.
I hope to hell we do too. But, if they get something close to that then I like our chances. I'm also hoping the home crowd gives him enough adrenaline to get the velocity up towards normal figuring he gets his mechanics straightened out.
Sale knows he fucked up last year. He's gotta bring it, and he's going to give us some wily guile.
Except link to the first posts for the first game don't work. Sox swept the Angels, though, so it should have been Hamburger Ankle his ownself.