ALDS: Indians vs Red Sox
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Ya - I've read a few reports that his speed is just above average and he's more of a smart 1st to 3rd, take the extra base kind of guy. Not necessarily someone you green light at this stage of his career with that poor of a percentage.
From Soxprospects:
"Run: Above-average runner with base-stealing potential. Not a burner, but quick, athletic strides with accelerating speed underway and great instincts."
Couldn't find it on fangraphs, but I think his run tool is a 5.
And, as BMH suggested above, we don't know about Hernandez' instincts, game awareness.....all the things that Holt does well on the base paths. HIs reads are right up there with Mookie.
Papi was giving base running advise, yes he was!
So... you don't want to bench him yet. That's good, that's smart, benching him at all though would be asinine, but ok.
You think his screwup was "swept under the rug." In an SJH world, what does "inexusable" entail, exactly? How is it being excused and how can that be changed for you? Just curious what you're clamoring for here, exactly. Getting chewed out by Farrell? Butterfield? You?
I think it was a combination of advice and telling Hernandez that *if* he had gotten thrown out, Big Papi has his back.
I've been thinking a lot about advance scouting in the aftermath of last night's disappointing performance by the Red Sox offense. One of the hallmarks of the Sox championship era has been the attention to detail that pays off in plays like the Kolten Wong pickoff. The Indians certainly seem to have had a game plan last night to attack the Sox hitters. I thought the Boston pitching staff besides Porcello did a good job, but too many of the young Sox hitters looked like undiscplined hackers. Very disappointed at the lack of in-game adjustments to what the Cleveland pitchers were getting away with. I hope this isn't a sign that X, Betts and JBJ are just not ready for prime time.
Did Farrell mention anything about it? Did Benintendi? Did the media? Is he being excused because he's a young player?
That was IMO the biggest error of the entire game, and it was entirely unforced. I can accept errors of commission, I cannot accept idiotic mental breakdowns. And it's not the first time he's done it, he hurt himself earlier this year by being totally unaware of when the Red Sox run on contact.
And benching a player in the playoffs, even a young player, for screwups has happened before; ask Saltalamacchia all about that. Or Middlebrooks. The margin for error is too slim to put up with such things for long.
I'm clamoring for better mental play from the player. If he screws up again he's on the bench, which would not be asinine, it would be giving the team the best chance to win. He's a good young player and when his head is in the game he's an asset to the team. Last night his head wasn't in the game at a crucial moment and it cost the team dearly. It can't happen again.
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Not to single out SJH, but folks on this board have a strange preoccupation with mental errors rather than physical errors. The #1 reason why the Sox lost the game was because of Porcello's poor location in the third inning. You want inexcusable, giving up three home runs in one inning is way, way more inexcusable than being a little slow in throwing the ball back to the infield on a near-warning track flyout. And yet there's been something like 10x as many words written about Benintendi in this thread vs. Porcello.
Yes. Yes. Yes. No.
Also not sure how it was the biggest error of the game. If we arent looking at results based analysis, the win differential from man on 1st one out to man on 2nd one out there cant be that great (via fangraphs the whole play reduced Indians win expectancy by 1.3%, the second out of the inning reduced the indian win expectancy by 1.7%). If we are looking at results based analysis, the run scores on the Napoli double.
For comparison, his homerun increased win expectancy by like 11%.
Also not sure how it was the biggest error of the game. If we arent looking at results based analysis, the win differential from man on 1st one out to man on 2nd one out there cant be that great (via fangraphs the whole play reduced Indians win expectancy by 1.3%, the second out of the inning reduced the indian win expectancy by 1.7%). If we are looking at results based analysis, the run scores on the Napoli double.
For comparison, his homerun increased win expectancy by like 11%.
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Regarding Benintendi's lapse. Yes .. he was surprised and slow to react. However, even without the mistake I don't think he gets the guy unless he makes a perfect throw - which he didn't. So I didn't view it as "costing the game". At worst it cost a base. And maybe not even that .
Because one is entirely avoidable, and one isn't, since the other guys get paid too. Porcello could pitch perfectly and still give up bombs because major league hitters are good.
Benintendi losing focus in the outfield and allowing a free and ultimately crucial base advancement is entirely avoidable; all he had to do was be aware of the possibility and play the catch more crisply. What he did was essentially a double-fault in tennis.
It's hard enough to win baseball games without shooting yourself in the foot.
The throw was bad because it was rushed. The throw was rushed because he was caught by surprise. He was caught by surprise because he wasn't focused enough on the game situation.
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Start times for rest of Red Sox-Indians series: Game 4 in Boston: 6:08 p.m. ET Game 5 in Cleveland: 6:08 p.m. ET, unless Blue Jays-Rangers series is over. Then, 8:08 p.m. ET
I read it differently.
I thought he misread the ball and was surprised yo have to get all the way back to the track. In his panic, he didn't get behind the ball.
Look at the replay (10 secs in)
But is that what happened? I don't think so. You're excusing Porcello's bad pitches because "the other guys get paid too"? The whole point about having a Cy Young candidate on the mound is to prevent those other guys from scoring runs. That's his job. If it were David Ortiz or Mark Trumbo at the plate, that would be one thing. But this was Roberto Perez (3 HR on the season), Jason Kipnis (23 HR), and Francisco Lindor (15 HR).
Thoughts on pulling Price in the 4th? Six hits, but three of them were BABIP specials (two infield hits and a blooper), and the HR was Pesky-like. I didn't see the last walk, but Gameday made it look like he got squeezed by the ump. I don't see the benefit of going to Barnes there.
To resurrect one of SIAS's favorite metaphors, the team looks like a horse Farrell had to use the whip on too long and too often to get where they are (and that's not meant as a slam on Farrell). Not quite enough pitching and too many injuries to get set up for a deep postseason run.
People are going to focus on Porcello and Price, but through 17 innings in the postseason, Red Sox hitters are 13 for 62 with 22 Ks, eight XBH and .269 OBP.
Combine that with the atrocious fielding (Benintendi yesterday, Holt twice and Pedroia once today), and it's fair to say this has been a total system failure.
Combine that with the atrocious fielding (Benintendi yesterday, Holt twice and Pedroia once today), and it's fair to say this has been a total system failure.
Who was it that was concerned about the offense but got mocked because everyone said the last week didn't matter? Nice work guys. The offense shut off with a week to play
I don't see too many injuries as being a major factor. Getting full seasons from Ortiz, Pedroia and Hanley is better than could have been reasonably expected prior to the season. Top two starters never missed a start. Cleveland got hit with more significant injuries near the end of the season. At full strength, the Indians have 4 of the 5 best pitchers in this series. 2 of the 4 are off their playoff roster due to injury.
On paper the Sox were the better team heading in to this series. Unfortunately not a single aspect of the team has performed according to expectations over the first two games. They have come up small in every conceivable way:
The top two pitchers on the staff allowed 10 runs in 7 total innings.
The offense has been nonexistent. The core kids (Bradley, Betts, Bogaerts) have been totally useless at the plate, flailing wildly at very poor pitches.
The fielding as mentioned has been terrible, which each mistake made leading to runs scored in that inning.
I guess the bullpen has been OK. It hasn't mattered though.
I know, rationally, that they prepared adequately for this series, but it sure don't look like it. They look overwhelmed in the moment.
The top two pitchers on the staff allowed 10 runs in 7 total innings.
The offense has been nonexistent. The core kids (Bradley, Betts, Bogaerts) have been totally useless at the plate, flailing wildly at very poor pitches.
The fielding as mentioned has been terrible, which each mistake made leading to runs scored in that inning.
I guess the bullpen has been OK. It hasn't mattered though.
I know, rationally, that they prepared adequately for this series, but it sure don't look like it. They look overwhelmed in the moment.
Its easy to focus on the SPIng, but the defense has been less than stellar, and the offense has been almost non-existent against anyone not named Bauer (who had a 5+ ERA in the 2nd half). Some of that's kids playing in their first post season, but even the seasoned vets have looked rough. Frankly, only Benintendi has looked comfortable up there.
Lot of BABIP luck by the Indians and some short distant HR's to RF in these 2 games. They won't hit anywhere as well at Fenway.. I would not panic and use Porcello in game 4, if we dont score plenty of runs at Fenway against Tomlin and Bauer both, there is no need to go back to Cleveland for game 5 against Kluber. We need a well rested Porcello who can shut down the Indians offense in game 5. Price or E-Rod won't get that done I don't think
Lot of BABIP luck by the Indians and some short distant HR's to RF in these 2 games. They won't hit anywhere as well at Fenway.. I would not panic and use Porcello in game 4, if we dont score plenty of runs at Fenway against Tomlin and Bauer both, there is no need to go back to Cleveland for game 5 against Kluber. We need a well rested Porcello who can shut down the Indians offense in game 5. Price or E-Rod won't get that done I don't think
The bullpen has been better than OK. They've been excellent, and it mattered yesterday, keeping them in the game until the end.
My comment wasn't so much a comparison of CLE vs. BOS.
They didn't lose much from top-line starters, but they were thin enough that the kids arguably played way too many innings to keep their legs at this point in the season. Two guys who turned 24 this week (Happy Birthday, X and Mookie!) were 2nd and 3rd in the league in PAs this season, and our over-30 year old second baseman was 11th.
As for the pitching, they were only in a position to make a run at the end of the season because Wright pitched out of his mind during the first half of the season, and the starters couldn't go deep enough for a long enough stretch that the bullpen--with baked Taz and without Carson Smith at all--was just ground into dust.
I don't mean any of this as a criticism as much as an observation. Preseason, I thought they were good for 84-85 wins. This is all gravy for me at this point.
I can't blame Farrel for a single decision in these two games, but if they lose in the ALDS he should be gone as should Dombrowski.
I missed most of the games live but in the bit I heard today on ESPN radio (in CA), they said Ortiz had not taken BP on the field before either game. Any know what's up with that (apologies if already discussed in any thread)?
Sad part is he is right. They have to get back to grinding out every at bat and laying off bad pitches as step one.
Wait, what? Farrell I can see, but Dombrowski has had exactly one year to transform this team from a last place team to a first place team. They're trending in the right direction and he inherited the coach. That's a silly viewpoint.
Flawless - not to speak for the poster above, and it's not realistic - but DD's resume for the season is 4 prospects including a very good one for a closer who couldn't throw strikes at year end, 217 million for someone who craps his pants in big games, and the # 1 pitching prospect for a guy who is pitching mop up middle innings in the playoffs. The trend is due entirely to players developed by the Epstein and Cherington admins. Obviously you don't hand the keys to a guy and dump him after one season in which the playoffs were made, but this guy's first season was Don Sweeney-esque.
I'd love to see all seven HRs overlaid on top of a picture of Fenway Park field. I wonder how many of them would have still been HRs.
Correction
“@TimBritton: On tape, this is ”We’ve lost who we are as the Boston Red Sox.“ My bad. https://t.co/yMoRaC1Goe
“@TimBritton: On tape, this is ”We’ve lost who we are as the Boston Red Sox.“ My bad. https://t.co/yMoRaC1Goe
My prediction is it will be harder to get to game 5 than win game 5. If they square it up, they'll win in Cleveland.
Only because it's harder to win two games than to win just one.
Due to injuries, they will be facing two below average pitchers in game 3 and 4 if necessary. And they're at Fenway. They will be significantly favored to win game 3. Then if they win that one, they'll be significantly favored to win game 4. But I don't think they'd be favorites to win game 5 if it happens.
I read that "We've lost the Red Sox" comment more along the lines of Papi's speech in the 2013 WS. He's just saying they need to go back to being who they know they can be. I don't see anything related to "clubhouse cancer" there.
I am not predicting they get swept, in fact I think they can still come back from this. But it occurs to me that if such a thing did happen, this would be the
I remember saying something similar about Theo and Duquette in Theos his first few years I guess you could give him credit for calling up Benintendi early, supporting Pablos benching, Hanleys move to 1B. Kimbrel to his credit has been very good in save situations. Price has been very good against non Yankees teams (3.4 ERA) and Pomeranz provided a sorely needed boost for the rotation that was important to winning the division. I remember folks being pretty down on the Josh Beckett deal in 2006 and losing Hanley and Anibal. Sometimes these things look a bit different in year 2. Heck, we were all up in arms about Porcello being a bust and he is in the running for CYA. And Hanley couldn't hit, until he could
i was way off i am sorry
boston on paper as far as players had the edge at every spot i think i way undereasted tito i throuht u would crush their Sp i knew cle had miller but i throuht they had a weak pen after him hell all 4 fav couild lose
who wouild u pick between TOR CLE LA SF SF? what a nightmare for MLB
boston on paper as far as players had the edge at every spot i think i way undereasted tito i throuht u would crush their Sp i knew cle had miller but i throuht they had a weak pen after him hell all 4 fav couild lose
who wouild u pick between TOR CLE LA SF SF? what a nightmare for MLB