ALDS: Indians vs Red Sox

oumbi

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I'm sticking with my original 8 man pen.

Kimbrel
Koji
Ziegler
Ross
Barnes
Kelly
Scott
Pomeranz
For what it is worth, Wright has been ruled out for the ALDS, but might be back for later series.

"Wright is progressing in a positive direction. Since postseason rosters have to be set by Wednesday, Wright will not be ready for the first round, but Farrell didn't rule out later rounds."

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/09/steven_wright_making_progress.html
 

Sampo Gida

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Even w/o HFA, the Indians top 3 SP'ers are injured or coming off an injury (Klubler). Bauer and Tomlin sporting 5+ ERA's in the 2nd half. Their pen is improved with the addition of Miller, but not quite the same team w/o their top SP'ers being 100%.

Offensively, the Indians suffer quite a drop of on the road, and Fenway did not help them much their one trip here.

Just have to win 1 in Cleveland and then knock them off at home. Much rather be playing these guys than Toronto, Baltimore or Texas
 

Noah

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Ernie Johnson isn't really a baseball announcer. Ripken is boring but harmless. Darlng is good. But, no Harold Reynolds! Net net, OK.
I might be alone in this, but I hate Ernie Johnson as a baseball announcer more than almost anything. We complain a lot here about announcers who either talk too much or too little or say dumb things, but Ernie Johnson is worse because he just has no idea what's going on. He calls popups and home runs exactly the same. It sucks all the joy out of the game and I hate it.
 

JimD

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I'm really glad that Porcello is starting game 1 against Bauer - it just feels like that gives the Red Sox the best shot to grab one game in Cleveland and get a chance to close the series out at Fenway.

I have no idea what to expect from Price, particularly matched up against Kluber in game 2. I think folks in Boston may be making too much of Kluber's injury (Cleveland beat writers seem to think he'll be fine), and Price propensity for giving up home runs doesn't fill me with confidence - the Tribe has a few players besides sluggers Napoli and Santana that can hit the long ball. I think we're going to need the Sox bats to show up Friday in a big way to secure a win.
 

phenweigh

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We've all heard that the playoffs are a crap shoot and the best team doesn't always win. I'm wondering how true that is? I mean, of course the best team doesn't always win, but do they win more often than not? How is the best regular season team measured anyhow? By wins or run differential? Then there is the issue of teams change over the course of a season due to injuries, trades, etc. Might second half (or post trade deadline) record or run differential be more predictive than full season data?

Any insight appreciated.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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We may have to start watching the weather thread. Depending on what path Matthew takes you may have games 3-5 on Monday-Wednesday which would provide some additional choices in starting pitching since Porcello and Price would be available on normal rest for games 4 and 5.
 

Al Zarilla

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We may have to start watching the weather thread. Depending on what path Matthew takes you may have games 3-5 on Monday-Wednesday which would provide some additional choices in starting pitching since Porcello and Price would be available on normal rest for games 4 and 5.
I hit post instead of reply. Anyway, what I had in mind was which team would that help more, and maybe I'd rather not take a start away from Buchholz or Rodriguez and send Price out there a second time instead. Porcello though, how could you not want him for a (maybe earlier) game at Fenway, unless innings pitched this year may be catching up with him. Stay away, you bad ol 'cane.
 
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dynomite

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We've all heard that the playoffs are a crap shoot and the best team doesn't always win. I'm wondering how true that is? I mean, of course the best team doesn't always win, but do they win more often than not? How is the best regular season team measured anyhow? By wins or run differential? Then there is the issue of teams change over the course of a season due to injuries, trades, etc. Might second half (or post trade deadline) record or run differential be more predictive than full season data?

Any insight appreciated.
Lots of folks have attempted to answer this question. No satisfying answer has been reached, for some of the reasons you identified.

“Baseball’s playoffs are a crapshoot.”

It’s kind of true. MLB’s postseason — some call it a “gauntlet of randomness” — tempts with a million narratives that seem to legitimately explain why some teams rise and others fall in October. But most attempts to solve the playoff puzzle have failed. (To wit: It once looked like Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight’s editor in chief, had figured out the “secret sauce” that determines postseason success, but recent results have led Baseball Prospectus to retire his metric.)

The only thing practically every study of the postseason has in common is that a team’s overall regular-season performance, and little else, matters when predicting its playoff fortunes.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/do-mlb-preseason-projections-matter-in-the-playoffs/

Here's fangraphs take from a few years back: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-mlb-eliminate-the-entire-playoffs/

Here's Vice's take inspired by the 2014 World Series, which pitted the 88-win Giants against the 89-win Royals: https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/a-modest-proposal-for-killing-the-mlb-playoffs-or-not

One of my own favorite examples: Not counting the 2016 Cubs (because their season is in progress), since 2000 there have been 15 teams that won 100 games in the regular season. Only 1 of them won the World Series ('09 MFY), and only 3 even made the final round.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Anyone familiar with October weather patterns in Cleveland? My recollection is that this time of year home runs are hard to come by...which would benefit the Red Sox. On the other hand, it could be no pattern at all and just whatever that day's forecast is.

Here's an article from Cleveland about weather impacts:



For the Indians, it is worth noting that their best home run hitters, Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli, are also their most patient hitters. The data suggests more walks and less home runs for them during an World Series run. The offense is going to need to find other ways to score more consistent runs, which is why the Tribe has had such a focus on baserunning this season. Those extra bases taken on singles and doubles will be even more valuable when less balls clear the outfield wall.

On the pitching side, it will be interesting to see if Miller’s slider or Kluber’s curve are less efffective when the chill of late Fall takes hold. The good news is that the Indians possess a ton of pitchers with power including those two. And, the home run issues some of the players such as Carlos Carrasco have had might be muted during the MLB postseason.

Overall, it looks like the Cleveland Indians are poised for October baseball...
Could say the same thing about the Red Sox.
 

aminahyaquin

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Well, I am no baseball expert, just a long time lover. I am looking at The Cleveland box. Even if they ran away with their division in June with a "14 0r 15 game winning streak" , and even if I sincerely would love for it to be the case (winning by a greater margin , creaming the opponent always good IMO LOL) I do NOT think this is going to be a cakewalk. Cleveland is on top after a long season by a good margin, and ahead of us (barely) percentage wise.
Our guys have had a long arduous away game end to the regular season, and as is normal in baseball, appear to have let down just a bit.
I do not see the Indians as a pushover team. I agree we have a deeper team in talent and we have a motivated team, in part because of Papi's last season, and in part because of the essentials to all winning teams, good chemistry and collaborative determination, and on top of that some good luck with injuries, as in few of them.
But i think this is going to be a dogfight, with plenty of heroics, and will set up the usual grueling post game challenges, after all the divisional fights that have to be fought to win a pennant and a world series. We have fielded a hell of a team this year, the guys have made a brilliant run so far. I look forward to seeing real baseball beauty (although I honestly have never cared if a game is messy so long as we win) in this series with Cleveland, and if our team stays focused , productive, and positive, we will win. I think that if we beat Cleveland we will coast to the AL pennant and have a glorious shot at another WS title.
 

Rovin Romine

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We've all heard that the playoffs are a crap shoot and the best team doesn't always win. I'm wondering how true that is? I mean, of course the best team doesn't always win, but do they win more often than not? How is the best regular season team measured anyhow? By wins or run differential? Then there is the issue of teams change over the course of a season due to injuries, trades, etc. Might second half (or post trade deadline) record or run differential be more predictive than full season data?

Any insight appreciated.
I think that's exactly backwards. The team who wins the actual playoff games is the best team. The only scenario where one could say the "best team" does not win is one where an otherwise dominant team loses solely because of erroneous calls. In that case the actual performance of a team is discounted because of events external to the play itself.
 

phenweigh

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I think that's exactly backwards. The team who wins the actual playoff games is the best team. The only scenario where one could say the "best team" does not win is one where an otherwise dominant team loses solely because of erroneous calls. In that case the actual performance of a team is discounted because of events external to the play itself.
So your position is that the 85 win Twins proved themselves to be a better team than the 98 win Tigers in 1987?
 

grimshaw

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We've all heard that the playoffs are a crap shoot and the best team doesn't always win. I'm wondering how true that is? I mean, of course the best team doesn't always win, but do they win more often than not? How is the best regular season team measured anyhow? By wins or run differential? Then there is the issue of teams change over the course of a season due to injuries, trades, etc. Might second half (or post trade deadline) record or run differential be more predictive than full season data?

Any insight appreciated.
Since 1980,
-The team with the best record in MLB has won the WS 7 out of 35 times.
-The team with the best run differential has won it 9 of 35
-The team with the best record has made the world series 16 of 35.
-The team with the best run differential has made it 16 of 35 times

During the first 14 years, pre re-alignment
-3 of 14 teams with the best record won the WS (less than 1/4 of the time, which is crazy considering only 4 teams made the postseason). The best win/loss record was the least likely to win during that time.
-11 of 14 teams made the series with the best run differential

After realignment
-6 of 21 teams with the best run differential made the WS (4 of them won).

Teams who had 10 or more wins better than the rest of MLB won the World Series 3 out of 7 times.
The biggest upset was arguably the 1995 Indians losing to Atl. The Indians averaged outscoring the competition by 1.6 runs over 144 games and were 100-44 that year.

The Indians and Mariners had two of the three best win loss records in individual seasons and both lost. The M's didn't even make the ALCS.

Conclusion - complete crapshoot.
 
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phenweigh

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You mean the 4-1 Twins v the 1-4 Tigers? Yes. Unless you think, for some reason, those games shouldn't count or something.
Of course they should count. What I discount is that short series proves the Twins were the better team. A big difference in the 162 game record has much more meaning to me. In fact, in 1987 the Twins has a negative run differential. They were a mediocre team that got hot at the right time.

To be clear, I'm not arguing they weren't legitimate champions. They won the title by the rules in place. But that doesn't prove the best team won.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Of course they should count. What I discount is that short series proves the Twins were the better team. A big difference in the 162 game record has much more meaning to me. In fact, in 1987 the Twins has a negative run differential. They were a mediocre team that got hot at the right time.

To be clear, I'm not arguing they weren't legitimate champions. They won the title by the rules in place. But that doesn't prove the best team won.
The Twins also arguably benefited from the fixed alternating schedule that awarded them home field advantage in both the ALCS and World Series despite having the worst record of post-season qualifiers that season. I don't think there's any arguing that they had a distinct HFA playing in the Metrodome that October. Gotta wonder if starting that series in Tiger Stadium leads to a different outcome, or at least a longer series.
 

Rovin Romine

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Of course they should count. What I discount is that short series proves the Twins were the better team. A big difference in the 162 game record has much more meaning to me. In fact, in 1987 the Twins has a negative run differential. They were a mediocre team that got hot at the right time.

To be clear, I'm not arguing they weren't legitimate champions. They won the title by the rules in place. But that doesn't prove the best team won.
I understand your argument, but I think we're just going to disagree on this.

You seem to be arguing that there should be some kind of relative "skill" assessment of each team made at the moment the playoffs begin, and that skill should be measured by the results from the just finished season (or perhaps a statical analysis of performance independent of W-L). But that also sort of assumes that there are no trades or injuries and that every player's performance is consistent, and that there is no adapt/react cycle (i.e., players learning or developing). In that sort of very artificial scenario you could argue that one team had superior skill over another team. But if that's the case, we could just end the season there and forgo the playoffs. And anyway, it's a fallacy to assume that any team which won games in April or May or June is in some measure "the exact same team" as the one that takes the field for the first October playoff game.

I'm very comfortable (absent an uneven playing field due to bad umpiring) calling the team that wins in the October environment "the best team." They were good enough to get into the post season, given all the particular ins and outs of that specific 162 game slog. They were good enough to win against another team in a best of 5 or best of 7 series. This isn't to say that "luck" or "getting hot/cold" can never be a factor, but the laws of physics are the same for both teams.
 

phenweigh

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I understand your argument, but I think we're just going to disagree on this.

You seem to be arguing that there should be some kind of relative "skill" assessment of each team made at the moment the playoffs begin, and that skill should be measured by the results from the just finished season (or perhaps a statical analysis of performance independent of W-L). But that also sort of assumes that there are no trades or injuries and that every player's performance is consistent, and that there is no adapt/react cycle (i.e., players learning or developing). In that sort of very artificial scenario you could argue that one team had superior skill over another team. But if that's the case, we could just end the season there and forgo the playoffs. And anyway, it's a fallacy to assume that any team which won games in April or May or June is in some measure "the exact same team" as the one that takes the field for the first October playoff game.

I'm very comfortable (absent an uneven playing field due to bad umpiring) calling the team that wins in the October environment "the best team." They were good enough to get into the post season, given all the particular ins and outs of that specific 162 game slog. They were good enough to win against another team in a best of 5 or best of 7 series. This isn't to say that "luck" or "getting hot/cold" can never be a factor, but the laws of physics are the same for both teams.
You seem to be arguing that there should no cutoff for making the playoffs. Have all teams make the playoffs and if the last place team beats the first place team in a one-game playoff in the first round, that proves they were the better team.
 

lexrageorge

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I understand your argument, but I think we're just going to disagree on this.

You seem to be arguing that there should be some kind of relative "skill" assessment of each team made at the moment the playoffs begin, and that skill should be measured by the results from the just finished season (or perhaps a statical analysis of performance independent of W-L). But that also sort of assumes that there are no trades or injuries and that every player's performance is consistent, and that there is no adapt/react cycle (i.e., players learning or developing). In that sort of very artificial scenario you could argue that one team had superior skill over another team. But if that's the case, we could just end the season there and forgo the playoffs. And anyway, it's a fallacy to assume that any team which won games in April or May or June is in some measure "the exact same team" as the one that takes the field for the first October playoff game.

I'm very comfortable (absent an uneven playing field due to bad umpiring) calling the team that wins in the October environment "the best team." They were good enough to get into the post season, given all the particular ins and outs of that specific 162 game slog. They were good enough to win against another team in a best of 5 or best of 7 series. This isn't to say that "luck" or "getting hot/cold" can never be a factor, but the laws of physics are the same for both teams.
I think there's a couple of related issues that can easily get conflated.

First, who is the "best team"? Honestly, there is no way to answer that other than to have the top teams decide it on the field. So, on that point, I agree with RR 100%; the team that wins the World Series title has the right to be called the "best team".

The second issue is the how to predict which team will win the World Series with any degree of accuracy? That's a difficult problem; the opening round series last somewhere between 3 and 5 games; that's only 1.85% to 3.08% of the 162 game regular season. And there are just so many variables that affect the outcome of a game. Skill tends to win out over the 162 game season; it may not always win out over the playoffs.

The third issue is in regards to team building. Theo has often said that the goal is to build a team that would win enough games in the regular season to qualify for the playoffs; I seem to recall 95 games being the bogey. It's thought to be almost impossible to build a team equipped for the playoffs; too much can happen in a single series.
 

Rovin Romine

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You seem to be arguing that there should no cutoff for making the playoffs. Have all teams make the playoffs and if the last place team beats the first place team in a one-game playoff in the first round, that proves they were the better team.
That is very obviously not what I am arguing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What do they gain from announcing this? Will Buch be available in the pen for game 1?
Based on tweets from other beat guys, I think this was less an announcement by the team and more that they informed Buchholz (which makes sense from a preparatory standpoint) and he made the announcement.

He might be available in an emergency out of the pen in Game 1 (so too would Rodriguez), but he'd assuredly be available out of the pen in Game 5 if necessary.
 

phenweigh

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No, it's classic straw man.
I'll continue to take the minority opinion that it was logical extrapolation. My post was an absurd reaction to the idea that the 1987 Twins, (who made the playoffs by the extreme good fortune of the AL West being much weaker than the AL East that season and had the fifth best record in the AL when only two teams per league made the playoffs) could be considered the best team because they won a couple of small sample size series. There are many seasons where reasonable arguments can be made that the tournament winner was the best team in baseball without having the best 162 game record. 1987 is not one of them.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to Clay closing out a series sweep in Fenway!
 

savage362

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I'm fine with Clay pitching game 3. Of the 8 starts he made between August and September, I'd consider only 2 of them "bad". Although the games against CLE were not encouraging this year, we should see different results since we appear to have a better Clay now than we did in the Spring.
 

Byrdbrain

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Kipnis is the only lefty on the team that won't be pinch hit for so that severely limits the use of a LOOGY. Conversely Napoli is the only righty who won't be pinch hit for which will severely limit Ziegler's usage since Farrell obviously likes him much more against righties.
Santana, Ramirez and Lindor are all switch hitters.

We could see Scott more in other rounds of the playoffs if needed.
 

InsideTheParker

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I'm fine with Clay pitching game 3. Of the 8 starts he made between August and September, I'd consider only 2 of them "bad". Although the games against CLE were not encouraging this year, we should see different results since we appear to have a better Clay now than we did in the Spring.
None of the Red Sox starters has ever won a game in the post-season, so all we can do is hope that past results are no guarantee of future performance. I have as much faith in Buchholz as I do in any pitcher not named Porcello.
 

Al Zarilla

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None of the Red Sox starters has ever won a game in the post-season, so all we can do is hope that past results are no guarantee of future performance. I have as much faith in Buchholz as I do in any pitcher not named Porcello.
Price has never won a game as a starter, but he's been the winning pitcher twice in the post season in relief. One time was against Boston (2008 ALCS). Baseball Reference gives post season stats for all players.
 

E5 Yaz

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