ALCS 2021: Red Sox vs. Astros Discussion Thread

allmanbro

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Brantley is a LHH. And the Astros, at least through the first two games, have staggered their lineup pretty efficiently (R/L/R/L/R/L/R/R/R). I'm not sure an opener does Sale any favors.
Ooops, dumb mistake, I pictured Brantley on the wrong side. The animating thought was that they might want to try something different to shake things up for Sale.
 

mauidano

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Ooops, dumb mistake, I pictured Brantley on the wrong side. The animating thought was that they might want to try something different to shake things up for Sale.
He's our #1. If he can't get through the lineup, he should sit in the bullpen. Start him, that's what he gets paid to do.
 

JOBU

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Looks like it’s gonna be quite chilly at first pitch tomorrow night. Can’t imagine that would help the Astros any.
 

DJnVa

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Man, tough crowd. Schwarber has got a .911 postseason OPS, tied for third in runs scored.
It's not a tough crowd, it's one poster that goes against the grain no matter what the stats say.
 

snowmanny

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There is this weird thing going on where Bogaerts, Schwarber, Devers all kind of look off but actually are hitting well.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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If the Sox are going to win this series, Sale IS going to pitch again. I don't there's a way around it. It's just too unlikely that everything will go perfectly the Red Sox way such that they don't need him again. Even if they get to Wednesday up 3-1 with ERod pitching well tomorrow and Pivetta doing the job on Tuesday, I can't see Cora swapping the rotation order to go to Eovaldi on short rest rather than Sale on regular rest. He'd go with Sale and the kitchen sink approach at home knowing he's got Eovaldi in his back pocket for Game 6.
I agree that sale is going to pitch again. I don't know if it's going to be a start. Knowing Cora, he will probably bank on Sale figuring it out and giving him the ball to begin a game. I was encouraged by the fastball velocity. I'm just saying there's two ways to use Sale. Starting him is just one of them and getting through the top of the order has been difficult in both the DS and CS. Relief you can pick your spot.
 

snowmanny

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His career OPS vs LHP is 214/324/361/684 so not significantly off what we'd expect, if not what we'd hope for
 

JOBU

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Red Sox just released some pairs for games 3+4. Not many pairs get em now.
 

BaseballJones

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Looks like it’s gonna be quite chilly at first pitch tomorrow night. Can’t imagine that would help the Astros any.
54 degrees at 8:00pm tonight. That will feel chilly compared to how warm it’s been but that’s a perfectly good temp for October playoff baseball.
 

Archer1979

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54 degrees at 8:00pm tonight. That will feel chilly compared to how warm it’s been but that’s a perfectly good temp for October playoff baseball.
My sole concern with the temperature is it's potential impact on Chris Sale and just how loose he'll be able to get if he's starting Games Four or Five.
 

RIrooter09

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My sole concern with the temperature is it's potential impact on Chris Sale and just how loose he'll be able to get if he's starting Games Four or Five.
Which is why he would have been a great game 2 starter so he could start a potential game 6 in Houston.
 

Archer1979

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Which is why he would have been a great game 2 starter so he could start a potential game 6 in Houston.
Cora's building the rotation around Eovaldi at this point and working out trying get wins in the other starts. My guess is that it's Pivetta in Game Four and Sale as the opener in Game Five. Game Six has to be Eovaldi.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I would imagine Houck and Pivetta starting game 4 right?
Could go the other way around, but I think this is correct.

Though with the approach Cora has, I don't expect he's "saving" anyone for Game 4. If the situation calls for using both Pivetta and Houck tonight, he'll use them both and figure out a starter for Game 4 once Game 3 is over.
 

CR67dream

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I'm going to chime in here one more time to remind people to take any political content or social commentary to V&N. If you have any question about a post you are about to make crossing those lines, your best bet is to err on the side of caution. The alternative is risking absence from this place during a really cool time to be here.

Please don't force our hand.
 

joe dokes

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I'd prefer it if ERod makes that hypothetical irrelevant and gives us 5 or 6 strong innings.
ERod's 3rd-time-through numbers are pretty bad this year. (This year 1.026 OPS in 125 PAs vs. 766 overall); much better over his career - 764 vs. 722 overall. )

All else equal, I expect that consideration to play a big role.
 

BaseballJones

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I would imagine Houck and Pivetta starting game 4 right?
This is going to be interesting. Of course if it all goes well, piece of cake. But if EdRo struggles early, that's a lot of innings they need to figure out. And if it's Houck/Pivetta (or the other way around) in game 4, Sale is an iffy proposition in game 5 because he - even if he's great - probably won't go very far at all. So that's two out of three days when they're likely going to need bulk innings from a reliever. With Houck out of the equation (if indeed he's part of the game 4 mix), then what are the other options for games 3 and 5?

I assume Perez is a guy they'd use. But he can't go 3-4 innings in both games 3 and 5. So let's say he goes in game 3. Fine. What about game 5 then? Who knows.

At least it's good that the bullpen is largely rested, after a day off and not a ton of work needed in game 2.
 

E5 Yaz

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ERod's 3rd-time-through numbers are pretty bad this year. (This year 1.026 OPS in 125 PAs vs. 766 overall); much better over his career - 764 vs. 722 overall. )

All else equal, I expect that consideration to play a big role.
I think we've seen with all four remaining teams that bullpen usage will dominate. Fried is the only one who went what we would consider a traditional starter's length. We just have to get used to the twice through the order concept.

That will especially hold true with EdRo who, as noted, has not had much success against Houston as it is
 

bosockboy

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Could go the other way around, but I think this is correct.

Though with the approach Cora has, I don't expect he's "saving" anyone for Game 4. If the situation calls for using both Pivetta and Houck tonight, he'll use them both and figure out a starter for Game 4 once Game 3 is over.
I’d think he’d use Houck and Eovaldi for 2 maybe tonight and save Pivetta for tomorrow. But agree he worries about the game in front of him.
 

allmanbro

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Fortunately, for all the uncertainty in how the Sox can mix and match pitchers to fill the needed innings, the Astros are currently facing a bigger version of the same problem. It would be really nice to be able to chase Urquidy relatively early and keep that pressure on the Astros staff. Urquidy hardly walks anyone, doesn't strike out many, so when he's on, he can be pitch-efficient. He has been uneven this year though, missed July and August due to shoulder issues , and hasn't pitched in 15 days, so we will see . . .
 
If ERod can't get it done tonight I think things will go one of two ways. If Cora has a quick hook, then I think the first man out of the pen is someone who won't be expected to go long. If the game is still close at that point, I think we see Houck. If the game isn't close (either because the hook came too late or because the first man out of the pen failed to contain the damage) then we see Perez.
 

ricopetro6

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If Nate started game 1 as he should have then he would have started game 5 on normal rest, then be available in game 7 in relief for a few innings on 2 days rest.
That's why you start your best pitcher game 1. I'm sure Cora had his reasons, but he probably overthought it.
 

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If Nate started game 1 as he should have then he would have started game 5 on normal rest, then be available in game 7 in relief for a few innings on 2 days rest.
That's why you start your best pitcher game 1. I'm sure Cora had his reasons, but he probably overthought it.
Actually this way he can pitch game 6 on extra rest and be very available for a couple innings tomorrow in Game 4. Given that choice, you take the Game 4 availability, because you know it's happening.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Actually this way he can pitch game 6 on extra rest and be very available for a couple innings tomorrow in Game 4. Given that choice, you take the Game 4 availability, because you know it's happening.
Exactly. This manager's approach is quite clearly trying to win each series as fast as possible, and part of that involves not planning ahead for a Game 7. Hell, he's not really planning ahead for Game 4 other than vague concepts that he's not beholden to. Four post-season series, four post-season series wins in less than the maximum. Seems like a successful approach.
 

nvalvo

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I just rewatched Sale's innings from game one. His command appeared to improve as he went, but he was also hurt by at least one missed call. Still barely any changeups (3 total), and still a gigantic split as a result.

To RHH in his start against Houston, he gave up: walk, single, 6-3, single, single, HBP, strikeout, groundout, single. So, that's 4/7 with a walk and a HBP. Yikes. They mostly just lay off the slider, although he did get three swinging strikes against it, so it looks to me like the pitch itself (it's shape) is fine. Bottom line: until he can regain trust in the changeup, he's a total liability against RHH.

In contrast, here was his performance against LHH: flyout, sac fly, popup, lineout (Kiké diving catch), soft, shift-beating single, strikeout. 1/6 with some help from the defense, but also a bunch of weak contact (even the diving catch was more of a Texas leaguer than a scalded line drive), and a wild pitch that advanced Altuve to third to score on the Alvarez sac fly.
 

ricopetro6

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Actually this way he can pitch game 6 on extra rest and be very available for a couple innings tomorrow in Game 4. Given that choice, you take the Game 4 availability, because you know it's happening.
I see your point, but pitching game 1 would have increased his availability and number of innings available to pitch for the entire series. Your want your best pitcher to pitch the most innings possible, that's all I'm saying.
 

E5 Yaz

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Exactly. This manager's approach is quite clearly trying to win each series as fast as possible, and part of that involves not planning ahead for a Game 7. Hell, he's not really planning ahead for Game 4 other than vague concepts that he's not beholden to. Four post-season series, four post-season series wins in less than the maximum. Seems like a successful approach.
Buck and Smoltz were getting at this tonight in between Siri puns. Smoltz was saying that Cora's approach is not based on conventional structure of bullpen use, but to stress run prevention early with stronger arms.
 

Manramsclan

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It feels really good right now. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. It's only 2-1.

We know what can happen in a 7 game series.
 

barbed wire Bob

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It feels really good right now. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. It's only 2-1.

We know what can happen in a 7 game series.
True but tomorrow they have a very good chance of taking a commanding lead. Greinke is not the pitcher he once was and the Astros bull pen has been run ragged. The Red Sox on the other hand are firing on all cylinders. It would not surprise in the least to see another grand slam in the game tomorrow.
 

RG33

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This lineup is so deep and locked in right now. The Astros pitching staff is just depleted with no McCullers, an ineffective Urquidy and Valdez, and an ancient Greinke. The Astros looked like they didn’t want to be there tonight and I just don’t see how a couple of early runs by the Red Sox doesn’t blow the doors off this thing tomorrow.

This feels lined up for Sox in 5, and it is also somewhat miraculous that the lineup and pitching staff for the Red Sox has come together like it has. This team feels special — very 2013-like.

Oh yeah, Kyle Schwarber was the best bat acquired at the trade deadline this year. . . . .
 

Lowrielicious

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Obviously they don't have any actual good options, but Greinke seems like a particularly bad one.

This lineup has scored 20 runs in the first 3 innings of the 3 games in this series.

Hopefully it goes just as badly as possible for them.
 

grimshaw

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Baker not using a position player in the 8th instead of Stanek seemed like a bad idea, but that's never been his jam.
I'm not counting Greinke out by any means. I could see him gutting through 4 or 5 innings in a crafty veteran way and then passing it over to the high leverage guys. But I don't see them being able to repeat that two games in a row given their long guys being spent. They are really screwed.

In addition to the offense just being hot, they now have familiarity with Houston's guys
 

joe dokes

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Letting ERod go 6 was something of a "step on their throat" move by Cora.
The risk after a relatively shaky 4th was small, given the lead, but had he pulled ERod then, at least the Astors could take some solace in the fact that "the Sox used a lot of relievers, too" in the first of three in a row.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Greinke was fine through August---Ks down but still quite effective. Then he got COVID and was awful (12.1 innings 14 runs( in two starts and two relief appearances since. He's also allowed 5 HR in those 12.1 innings.

As noted above, length is the other issue---he went 2.1 innings in relief on October 3 and 1 inning October 10 and that's it since September 19 (when he went 4 innings).

So if he's healthy he certainly could have built back up through side work to 4-5 innings. But it's a complete unknown whether he's got anything in the tank, quality or health wise here...
 

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Sox got swept by the MFYs, lost 2 of 3 to Baltimore, and were down 5-1 to the Nats, all in the final week of the season.

And then they somehow flipped a switch. Baseball is the best and this team is really good and really fun. I feel sorry for those who gave up on them.

I have a feeling that tonight is going to be tough, but so what. It isn't supposed to be easy
 

Archer1979

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Letting ERod go 6 was something of a "step on their throat" move by Cora.
The risk after a relatively shaky 4th was small, given the lead, but had he pulled ERod then, at least the Astors could take some solace in the fact that "the Sox used a lot of relievers, too" in the first of three in a row.
It's not that the Sox used a lot of relievers though, its who they did and did not use. In Saturdays game, Whitlock went two just to give him some work. Ottavino went 2/3 of an inning with 18 pitches. Brasier threw four pitches. The rest were guys you're probably not going to see with the game on the line.

Houston on the other hand, is about to go their third straight opener game. They burned tomorrow's probable starter in Odorizzi (82 pitches) while trying to salvage Game Two. They're walking a tightrope for the next four games. Everyone not named Pressly, Graveman, or Javier must be baked at this point.