Albert Pujols Watch

CaptainLaddie

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There is a good chance that we look back at the 2022 All-Stars, there's a good reason to think "man, Pujols was a 'legacy' selection?"

Entering tonight he had 141 OPS+ at age 42. He he's going to have at least 21 homers, a .500 SLG, and hitting above .250.
 

E5 Yaz

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Wonderful moment. Who was the guy in the front row he high-fived before heading over to his teammates?
 

soxhop411

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I believe now 500 HRs against RHPs, and 200 HRs against LHPs. Nice & even.
You would be correct
View: https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1573513953153622035


And the video for those who missed it
View: https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1573514786775736324

STL radio call
https://omny.fm/shows/cardinals-conversations/albert-pujols-hits-his-700th-career-home-run-vs-th
Wonderful moment. Who was the guy in the front row he hghi-fived before heading over to his teammates?
Beltre.
Unfortunately he did not touch his head
 

E5 Yaz

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Sort of poetic that he hit it in L.A., what with the Angels connection. Also, Dodgers fans can afford to be classy in the moment, given their secure playoff spot
 

nattysez

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A guy who came up in the steroid era goes from being a shell of himself for YEARS to the best power hitter in the NL in the second half of his final season and we're just going to accept it at face value, eh?

I'm old enough to remember the fawning coverage of Bonds, Sosa and McGwire. Won't get fooled again.
 

koufax32

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I generally don’t like the Cardinals because of the moral superiority complex that much of their fan base seems to wallow in. Despite that, this moment has brought a smile to my face for some reason. Good for him.
 

3rd Degree

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A guy who came up in the steroid era goes from being a shell of himself for YEARS to the best power hitter in the NL in the second half of his final season and we're just going to accept it at face value, eh?

I'm old enough to remember the fawning coverage of Bonds, Sosa and McGwire. Won't get fooled again.
Who called the cops? This party celebrating a historical baseball moment was fun.
 

E5 Yaz

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A guy who came up in the steroid era goes from being a shell of himself for YEARS to the best power hitter in the NL in the second half of his final season and we're just going to accept it at face value, eh?

I'm old enough to remember the fawning coverage of Bonds, Sosa and McGwire. Won't get fooled again.
The punchbowl is over there, on the second table on the left
 

streeter88

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Couple more milestones too: third player with 1400 XBH, and he is now within 6 of Babe Ruth for 2nd most RBI (I know I know) all time.

And I honestly don't care how he got there - just happy he did something that ARod couldn't. Baseball needs more heroes.
 

Remagellan

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Wonderful!

His last year with the Cardinals ended with a World Series win, and I hope this one does as well so he can retire on top.

I don't get the desire to see him come back for another season to try to pass Ruth. Even if you don't accept Bonds as the legitimate HR leader, Aaron's 755 would still be the "legitimate" mark, and he's not getting to that unless he's planning on playing to 45, which I don't think either he or the Cards would be good with. It's important to remember that you don't get a storybook ending without the ending part. I hope, like Papi did, he takes his amazing last season as the gift it is and walks away before risking becoming a burden to his team and being let go.
 

Remagellan

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Just had a bunch of fun comparing Pujols with Aaron:

https://stathead.com/tiny/KH7cF
Thanks for this!

Most amazing stat to me just at a glance--the fact that Aaron, who played during an age when headhunting was considered an acceptable part of the game, was only hit by a pitch 32 times in his career. He must have been one agile MFer when standing in that batter's box!
 

Max Power

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Very cool. The offensive numbers are eerily similar — yet Aaron had significantly higher WAR (143 to 101), curious to know what accounts for that as most of it is offensive based it appears??
Positional adjustment, an additional two seasons for Aaron, and lower league averages. Aaron's 155 career OPS+ is significantly better than Pujols' 144.
 

Tim Salmon

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Very cool. The offensive numbers are eerily similar — yet Aaron had significantly higher WAR (143 to 101), curious to know what accounts for that as most of it is offensive based it appears??
Wouldn’t the fact that Pujols had negative value for years account for a chunk of it? He was a net negative, or close to it, for eight years. Aaron didn’t drop off a cliff until the end.
 

streeter88

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Wouldn’t the fact that Pujols had negative value for years account for a chunk of it? He was a net negative, or close to it, for eight years. Aaron didn’t drop off a cliff until the end.
Yes, more than half the difference was in the last 7 years of their careers - Aaron had 23.4 WAR vs 1.1 WAR for Pujols. And even before that, Aaron's age 31-35 year seasons were at an 8 WAR average (160 OPS+) vs. Pujols who averaged less than 4 WAR (129 OPS+) over the same time frame.

EDIT: apologies if the math is not perfect - I eyeballed it.
EDIT 2: they were pretty much even through their age 30 seasons at 81.3 for Pujols vs 80.5 WAR for Aaron.
 
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Yelling At Clouds

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I generally don’t like the Cardinals because of the moral superiority complex that much of their fan base seems to wallow in. Despite that, this moment has brought a smile to my face for some reason. Good for him.
Wonderful!

His last year with the Cardinals ended with a World Series win, and I hope this one does as well so he can retire on top.
I’ve noticed a lot of baseball fans have been rooting for him, including some who don’t like the Cardinals normally (I am in both categories!), and I can’t but help but wonder if this would be the same if the chase were happening during yet another lost Angels season. (I know he was already gone from there.) I guess it would’ve been similar, but maybe not the same?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Good question. And I think the fact that it appears most Red Sox fans are rooting for Judge to hit more HRs helps to answer it. Pujols is an all time great who represented the game, his teams, and himself with class throughout his career, and that makes him, and Judge, easy to root for.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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He could have been playing for the Pirates and people would still be checking daily. Most of us are not likely to see 700 hit again any time soon (and, yes, I realize that three people have done it in the last 50 years now, but the game has changed so much), so this was a chance to see something that is exceedingly rare.

He just joined, arguably, the most exclusive "clubs" in baseball history (the other being him and Aaron being the only guys with 700 HR and 3K hits), so that's going to draw attention more. And I think him doing it with the Cardinals makes it all the more special, since he arguably should have never left.
 

Hyde Park Factor

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He could have been playing for the Pirates and people would still be checking daily. Most of us are not likely to see 700 hit again any time soon (and, yes, I realize that three people have done it in the last 50 years now, but the game has changed so much), so this was a chance to see something that is exceedingly rare.

He just joined, arguably, the most exclusive "clubs" in baseball history (the other being him and Aaron being the only guys with 700 HR and 3K hits), so that's going to draw attention more. And I think him doing it with the Cardinals makes it all the more special, since he arguably should have never left.
If you subtract Aaron's HR total from his hit total, he still has 3,000 hits:

3771 - 755 = 3016
 

Max Power

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If you subtract Aaron's HR total from his hit total, he still has 3,000 hits:

3771 - 755 = 3016
Aaron was so consistently good for so long. His lowest OPS+ from 1955 to 1973, 19 seasons, was 141. There's never been anyone like him.

Pujols only had 6 homers in the pandemic 60 game season. He had 23 the year before and 17 the year after. It seems reasonable that he'd have 10-15 more now and be right around Ruth if it weren't for Covid.
 

Hyde Park Factor

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Aaron was so consistently good for so long. His lowest OPS+ from 1955 to 1973, 19 seasons, was 141. There's never been anyone like him.

Pujols only had 6 homers in the pandemic 60 game season. He had 23 the year before and 17 the year after. It seems reasonable that he'd have 10-15 more now and be right around Ruth if it weren't for Covid.
Agree about the consistency from Aaron. He never had that one spectacular season, but each season was pretty much like the one that came before it and the one that would come next.
 

Pitt the Elder

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This was good 700th, not 900th. Why do you possibly think we are unlikely to see it again?
I don't disagree, but is there anyone playing right now that will make a run at 700? Trout has 346 at age 30 and has the power to do it but he is already having health problems that are taking him off the field. Aaron Judge only has 218 at the same age. He had a relatively late start for this kind of stat and has his own issues staying healthy, so he seems like an extreme longshot unless he makes a run of 4-5 seasons with 50-60 homeruns. Juan Soto has 124 and is only 23, so he might be the best long-term speculative bet, but a lot can happen over the next 15 years.

Am I missing anyone else obvious?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This was good 700th, not 900th. Why do you possibly think we are unlikely to see it again?
Only four players have done it in 100 years, one of which was enhanced in order to get there. It's a really difficult accomplishment, so I don't think it's unreasonable to think we're unlikely to see it again. Doesn't mean it will never happen again, but it might not be in our lifetimes. After Pujols, the active players that have at least 300 career HR are Miggy Cabrera (506), Nelson Cruz (459), Giancarlo Stanton (375), Mike Trout (346), Joey Votto (342), Robinson Cano (335), Evan Longoria (329), Justin Upton (325), and Paul Goldschmidt (315). Of those, Stanton (age 32) and Trout (age 30) seem like the best bets to maybe get to 600 if they stay healthy and consistently productive for another 8-10 years. That might be asking a lot given their histories.
 

Remagellan

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I’ve noticed a lot of baseball fans have been rooting for him, including some who don’t like the Cardinals normally (I am in both categories!), and I can’t but help but wonder if this would be the same if the chase were happening during yet another lost Angels season. (I know he was already gone from there.) I guess it would’ve been similar, but maybe not the same?
Without a doubt, because the "great player going back to the team he started with" angle would be missing.

I should add that one of my best friends is a huge Cardinals fan (born and raised in St. Louis), and two of my nephews are diehard Mets fans, so I'm pretty much obligated to root for those teams whenever there's no conflict with my Sox love, as there appears there will not be this postseason.
 

Max Power

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If Trout suddenly gets healthy, he has a chance. A couple of guys who are athletic and might have really productive 30s are Nolan Arrenado and Bryce Harper. They're at 31 years old/298 and 29/284 respectively.
 

E5 Yaz

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Only four players have done it in 100 years, one of which was enhanced in order to get there. It's a really difficult accomplishment, so I don't think it's unreasonable to think we're unlikely to see it again. Doesn't mean it will never happen again, but it might not be in our lifetimes. After Pujols, the active players that have at least 300 career HR are Miggy Cabrera (506), Nelson Cruz (459), Giancarlo Stanton (375), Mike Trout (346), Joey Votto (342), Robinson Cano (335), Evan Longoria (329), Justin Upton (325), and Paul Goldschmidt (315). Of those, Stanton (age 32) and Trout (age 30) seem like the best bets to maybe get to 600 if they stay healthy and consistently productive for another 8-10 years. That might be asking a lot given their histories.
Was just looking at this list, and it's hard to imagine anyone in the 300-plus group outside of Cruz, Stanton, Trout and Goldschmidt even having a shot at 500. Heck, Arron Judge could hit 60 home runs for the next seven seasons and still wouldn't get to 700.

700 is a longevity stat, with means consistency and health have as much to do with it as talent or launch angles. Arenado and Harper would have to average 40 for the next 10 years to have a shot ... unless Harper somehow winds up on the Yankees.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I don’t know that I realized this: for all of the discussion of Trout’s health issues, he has 36 HRs in 109 games this year. Still unlikely he gets to 700, but I think we might all be prematurely writing his professional obituary?
 

Ale Xander

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I would have given Harper the best shot before the season but he got hurt and isn't at 100%. I don't think people realize how difficult it is to hit 700. You have to average 35 home runs for 20 years. You can't get hurt (if you sit out a year, you have to average 37) and you can't have bad years. There are only 2 players, with 2 weeks left, with more than 37 home runs this year, and both of them are basically not trying to hit singles, doubles, triples.

500 is the measuring stick. 700 is something else.

Staying healthy for 20 years isn't easy. And it also pretty much eliminates college players from having a shot.
You have to be a Soto/Harper, come up early and stay dominant for a long time.
 

Pitt the Elder

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I don't disagree, but is there anyone playing right now that will make a run at 700? Trout has 346 at age 30 and has the power to do it but he is already having health problems that are taking him off the field. Aaron Judge only has 218 at the same age. He had a relatively late start for this kind of stat and has his own issues staying healthy, so he seems like an extreme longshot unless he makes a run of 4-5 seasons with 50-60 homeruns. Juan Soto has 124 and is only 23, so he might be the best long-term speculative bet, but a lot can happen over the next 15 years.

Am I missing anyone else obvious?
Here's the active homerun leader list:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/HR_active.shtml

Stanton (372 @ 32) and Trout (346 at 30) are basically locks for 400 and have a really good shot at 500. Arenado (298 @ 31) seems like a good bet to make 400 but likely not 500. Devers (139 @ 25), Acuna (118 @24), and Alvarez (98 @ 25) could make a run at some totals as well as the aforementioned Soto (124 @ 23).

But other than that, no other active players really stand out to me.