AL Playoff Chase: The Final Week

[E5 Yaz]

Angels and Orioles are in, with the Angels holding a 2-game lead for overall record.
 
Detroit, thanks to its domination of Kansas City this season (13-5 heading into Sunday's final game between the teams) has a 2.5 game lead in the Central. Even a KC win Sunday won't help as much as it could (more on that in a second).
 
There are three realistic contenders (A's, Royals, Mariners) for the two wild cards. Here are the records going into Sunday:
 
Oakland 84-70
Kansas City 83-70*
Seattle 83-71
 
None of them is exactly burning it up as of late. Oakland is 3-7 in its last 10, while the Royals and Mariners are 4-6
 
The asterisk is because on Monday, Kansas City finishes a suspended game against Cleveland. The Indians lead 4-2 going into the bottom of the 10th ... which will actually be played in Cleveland, because of scheduling logistics, before the scheduled game that day. While not out of the possibility that Kansas City extends the game, it's unlikely.
 
Oakland this week has the Phillies at home today, followed by 3 at home against the Angels, followed by 4 at Texas.
Kansas City has the Tigers at home today, followed by 3 plus the suspended game in Cleveland and 4 at the White Sox
Seattle finishes up in Houston today, followed by 4 at Toronto and 3 at home against the Angels.
 
The Angels will be a factor here. If the Orioles are still within a game or two for home field, the Angels will have more reason to play the final week straight, without resting too many regulars.
 
Seattle's four games in Toronto end an 11-game road trip. The Royals will be on the road to finish the season all week, but the tips are to Cleveland and Chicago, so it's not a great distance involved. Oakland, of course, has been staggering for a month.
 
I'm going with Royals and Mariners, because I think the Angels will still be in win mode when they face Oakland, and Texas hits well at home. But if the Royals lose out by a game, it'll be because of this play
 
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/95580338/umpires-reversal-removes-royals-run-in-sixth-in-clash-with-tigers
 
Although the umpires will never admit that they reversed their call based on seeing the scoreboard replay of a decision that could not be reviewed.
 
 
 
 
 

 

[MakMan44]

Fingers crossed they all end up with the same record. 
 
 
Seriously though, thanks for posting this Yaz. I'm taking the Mariner's and A's for the 2 spots, I think the Royals choke. 

 

[hbk72777]

This is the worst AL Wild "race" I've ever seen. There's usually at least one hot team.
 
Looking at yesterdays results, you see a stream of L's all the way down. Don't even look at the last 10 results for these guys.
 
Putrid

 

[shawnrbu]

Let's not overlook Tito's Tribe.  They only have 1 non-Jacobs Field road game remaining.  With the downward spiral the Royals are in (Losing 3 out of 4 at home to the Red Sox, on the verge of being swept at home in their biggest series in 29 years), I could totally see Cleveland sweeping the Royals this week.  It is asking the Mariners a lot to travel all the way to Toronto for 4 games on the backend of a 3 city road trip.  Cleveland wins today, sweeps the Royals and the Jays take 3 out of 4 at home from the Mariners and the Indians are tied with the Mariners heading into the final series of the season.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 Don't even look at the last 10 results for these guys.

 
It helps the discussion along if you read what's already been posted

 

[E5 Yaz]

Let's not overlook Tito's Tribe.  They only have 1 non-Jacobs Field road game remaining.  With the downward spiral the Royals are in (Losing 3 out of 4 at home to the Red Sox, on the verge of being swept at home in their biggest series in 29 years), I could totally see Cleveland sweeping the Royals this week.  It is asking the Mariners a lot to travel all the way to Toronto for 4 games on the backend of a 3 city road trip.  Cleveland wins today, sweeps the Royals and the Jays take 3 out of 4 at home from the Mariners and the Indians are tied with the Mariners heading into the final series of the season.

 
That's a whole lot of variables, but you're right. The percentages say it's a long shot, but there's still a chance

 

[fineyoungarm]

King Felix goes on Tuesday.   So by my notoriously bad arithmetic, he'll close out the season.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

How about Cleveland making a late run? Currently up 7-2 vs the Twins, and leading by two runs in the suspended game that will be finished tomorrow. Then a three game series at home vs KC.

 

[MakMan44]

How about Cleveland making a late run? Currently up 7-2 vs the Twins, and leading by two runs in the suspended game that will be finished tomorrow. Then a three game series at home vs KC.

shawnrbu made that very point earlier this morning. 

 

[axx]

With the way the top 3 teams are playing, I wouldn't even rule out the Yankees. They'd have to run the table though, which is extremely unlikely.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The issue with a late Cleveland run is that, while not impossible, depends on them passing 2 teams ahead of them. A sweep of the 4 with the Royals would be a must

 

[E5 Yaz]

With the way the top 3 teams are playing, I wouldn't even rule out the Yankees. They'd have to run the table though, which is extremely unlikely.

 
I suppose you could go the Dumb and Dumber route and say there's a chance, but the percentage of likelihood for the Yankees to pass 3 teams currently ahead of them in one week is minute
 
BP's playoff odds page, with standings entering today
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

[E5 Yaz]

For those holding out hope for the Indians or Yankees, there's this:
 
Following Sunday's games involving the three teams, The Indians are 2 games behind the Mariners, while the Yankees are three in back of Seattle. Even if they were to overtake the Mariners over the final seven games, that still wouldn't put them in the Wild Card game. They'd also have to have a complete collapse by the A's or Royals.
 
Not impossible, but ...

 

[Plympton91]

For those holding out hope for the Indians or Yankees, there's this:
 
Following Sunday's games involving the three teams, The Indians are 2 games behind the Mariners, while the Yankees are three in back of Seattle. Even if they were to overtake the Mariners over the final seven games, that still wouldn't put them in the Wild Card game. They'd also have to have a complete collapse by the A's or Royals.
 
Not impossible, but ...

And a complete collapse of the Royals means the Indians are winning.

 

[E5 Yaz]

And a complete collapse of the Royals means the Indians are winning.

 
Yes it does, although it had to be done in conjunction with the Mariners or A's also collapsing.
 
This isn't difficult to figure out, people

 

[E5 Yaz]

After Sunday's games:
 
 
Oakland 85-70
Kansas City 84-70*
 
Seattle 83-72 (1.5 games back)
Cleveland 81-74 (3.5 games back)
New York 80-75 (4.5 games back)
 
Cleveland's only realistic hope here is to sweep the Royals. That would give the Indians a one-game lead over KC, but NOT a guaranteed lead in the Wild Card. If Seattle splits in Toronto, the Mariners would have the second spot, a game up on Cleveland.
 
For those on the bandwagon of the top teams playing poorly of late, here are the last 10 games for each team:
 
Oakland 4-6
Kansas City 4-6
Seattle 4-6
Cleveland 5-5
New York 5-5
 
Even if KC were to go 3-5 over the last 8, Cleveland would have to win their seven remaining games (3 and the suspended game at home against KV, 3 at home against Tampa Bay) to overtake the Royals. If KC goes 4-4, there is no way the Indians can catch them.
 
ESPN at the moment shows the probability of making the playoffs as follows: Oakland (96.5%), Kansas City (88.7%), Seattle (13.0%), Cleveland (3.1%) and New York (0.1%)
 
Baseball Prospectus's probability chart hadn't been update to reflect todays games at the time of this posting.
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

 

[shawnrbu]

KC at 88% seems way too high and the Mariners at 13% seem way too low.  Do these numbers not take into account that the Royals have virtually a guaranteed loss added to their record on Monday night?  The Mariners are really only 1 game behind the Royals with 7 to play.  The Mariners have 3 home games remaining, 2 of their final 7 games will be pitched by King Felix while the Royals play all away games and only have 1 more start remaining from Big Game James.  I think the Mariners and Royals or Indians (If the Royals win 1 in Cleveland, then I think they get to 87 wins and the Indians finish with 86 or 85) are going to finish tied with 87 wins forcing an extra elimination game a la Rays/Rangers in 2013. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

KC at 88% seems way too high and the Mariners at 13% seem way too low.  Do these numbers not take into account that the Royals have virtually a guaranteed loss added to their record on Monday night?  The Mariners are really only 1 game behind the Royals with 7 to play.  The Mariners have 3 home games remaining, 2 of their final 7 games will be pitched by King Felix while the Royals play all away games and only have 1 more start remaining from Big Game James.  I think the Mariners and Royals or Indians (If the Royals win 1 in Cleveland, then I think they get to 87 wins and the Indians finish with 86 or 85) are going to finish tied with 87 wins forcing an extra elimination game a la Rays/Rangers in 2013. 

 
I don't make up the percentages. They come from espn's standings. What goes into them, I'm not sure. Baseball Prospectus's figures seem a bit more moderate in expectation (they haven't updated them yet to reflect today, but postseason chances were A's 91.1%, Royals 56.2%, Mariners 42.6% and Indians 10.2%).
 
I suspect those who think the Indians will sweep all four from the Royals are basing it on home field and Tito appreciation. As far as key starters goes, Kluber only has one more start for Cleveland. 
 
One key here is the Angels. The Sox taking 2 of 3 from Baltimore helped LAA maintain its edge for the best record in the AL. The Angels have 3 games @ Oakland, then 3 in Seattle. How motivated LAA is to play all out could be a factor -- particularly if the Angels have the best record sewn up by the time they go to Seattle.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

James Paxton got rocked by Toronto tonight - the third consecutive Mariners starter to suck. Combined with the Royals going 1-1 on the day, Kansas City now has a two-game lead over the Mariners for the final spot.
 
Oakland is up 6-1 in the fourth and could have a 2 1/2 game lead on the Mariners at the end of the night.
 
Seattle is in big trouble.

 

[MakMan44]

Tigers only have a 1 game lead on the Royals too, according to the A's announcers

 

[E5 Yaz]

Tigers only have a 1 game lead on the Royals too, according to the A's announcers

 
That White Sox win tonight threw a weird twist into this. Huge win for Kansas City. Losing that after losing the suspended game would have really given Cleveland some momentum.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Detroit 86-70 (Leads AL Central by 1 game)
 
Oakland 86-70
Kansas City 85-71
 
Seattle 83-73 (2 back, 6 to play)
Cleveland 82-75 (3.5 back, 5 to play)
New York 81-75 (4 back, 6 to play)

 

[JimD]

My guess:
 
Detroit and KC end up tied for the Central at 89-73, play one-game playoff for division title
 
Wild cards:
OAK  90-72
Loser of DET/KC playoff game
 
SEA  86-76
CLE  85-77
NYY  85-77

 

[Rice4HOF]

Amazing that KC picked up 1.5 games on Detroit between Sunday and Monday despite losing that suspended game. In summary, in a span of 36 hours they went from 2.5 games back, lost a game, and ended up only 1 game back.

 

[axx]

KC is beating Cleveland while Seattle and the Yankees are losing. These scores hold up and it's probably over, and Oakland and KC will be the wild card teams.

 

[jon abbey]

King Felix looks like he really spit the bit in an essential game tonight, TOR kicking the crap out of them for the second night in a row. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Yeah, that one surprises me. But you have to wonder whether that 11 game road trip they're finishing up has just worn the whole team down

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Lester is lined up perfectly to start the wild card game on Tuesday. So is Shields for KC, and Verlander/Scherzer for Detroit. One way or another that game is going to be a great pitching match up.

 

[bosockboy]

I grew up in KC and was there for Game 6 and 7 in 1985. Surreal they are thisclose to their first playoff game since.

Great for baseball.

 

[Harry Hooper]

King Felix delivers a massive turd.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

King Felix delivers a massive turd.

 
Does it cost him the Cy Young?

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

King Felix delivers a massive turd.

 
He was also unimpressive against the Nats (1K, 4HR). The two worst games of his career have come in the year where he'd finally got within sniffing distance of the playoffs.
 
M's TV announcers have been braying that no one wanted to face the M's in the playoffs because of their shutdown pitching.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Lester is lined up perfectly to start the wild card game on Tuesday. So is Shields for KC, and Verlander/Scherzer for Detroit. One way or another that game is going to be a great pitching match up.

Melvin juggled his starters a bit a week or so ago to get Lester lined up. He must have also considered Samardzija, picked Lester. So, if the A's and Royals finish the season tied, KC hosts the game next Tuesday because they've won the head to head with Oakland this year. Is that right?

 

[Jake Peavy's Demons]

Melvin juggled his starters a bit a week or so ago to get Lester lined up. He must have also considered Samardzija, picked Lester. So, if the A's and Royals finish the season tied, KC hosts the game next Tuesday because they've won the head to head with Oakland this year. Is that right?

According to MLB Network, that is correct. Would be interesting to see KC host a playoff game.

 

[OCST]

I grew up in KC and was there for Game 6 and 7 in 1985. Surreal they are thisclose to their first playoff game since.

Great for baseball.

My earliest baseball memories are of those great 70's ALCS between the Yanks and Royals - Brett, Hal McRae, Freddie Patek. Every time I see the Royals in their home whites, that's what I think of.

 

[NYCSox]

Kind of funny how the AL and NL playoff teams reflect so many regional "rivalries"
 
Oakland - San Francisco
Anaheim - Los Angeles
Baltimore - Washington
Kansas City - St. Louis

 

[MakMan44]

Taijuan Walker just gave up a run in the bottom of the 8th. 1-0 Blue Jays.

 

[bosockboy]

My earliest baseball memories are of those great 70's ALCS between the Yanks and Royals - Brett, Hal McRae, Freddie Patek. Every time I see the Royals in their home whites, that's what I think of.

Same. Most underrated rivalry ever. Those were blood wars. The Chambliss walk off, Brett 3 homers off Hunter, fighting Nettles at 3b.

Brett was incredible playoff performer.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Taijuan Walker just gave up a run in the bottom of the 8th. 1-0 Blue Jays.

 
I'm glad I sold my Saturday Angels/M's tickets on StubHub last week for $95/seat. I don't think I'd get face now.

 

[MakMan44]

Tom Wilhemsen is getting his second career start in the place of Chris Young. Nuts that the M's are pulling a bullpen game out their asses.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

What is even crazier about it, is that McClendon said Wilhelmsen will only throw about 40 pitches.
 
He is at 36 pitches with one out in the second.

 

[MakMan44]

Yup, pulled after giving up a run in the 2nd. 

 

[MakMan44]

And Todd Redmond comes in for Daniel Norris and gives up 4 runs, 2 of which were charged to Norris. M's up 4-2 now. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

They were making a point during the Orioles game the other night about how the expanded rosters can skew pennant races. Buck Showalter apparently said that the Red Sox 2011 collapse doesn't happen if the rosters don't expand, particularly those games against Baltimore. He was quoted as saying "Terry Francona is still managing the Red Sox, if not for expanded rosters."

 

[Rasputin]

Remember at the trade deadline when there was all that talk about how Oakland and Detroit would make for a hell of an ALCS?
 
We might be getting that in the Wild Card game.
 
That would amuse me.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

They were making a point during the Orioles game the other night about how the expanded rosters can skew pennant races. Buck Showalter apparently said that the Red Sox 2011 collapse doesn't happen if the rosters don't expand, particularly those games against Baltimore. He was quoted as saying "Terry Francona is still managing the Red Sox, if not for expanded rosters."

 
Would love to hear his rationale on that.  Not sure how the expanded rosters were to blame with the shape the rotation was in by September.  Or the injury to Youkilis that cost him the last 13 games of the season.
 
Of the 27 games after rosters expanded, Pedroia and Ellsbury started every game at their customary positions, Gonzalez, Ortiz and Scutaro missed a total of four games between them.  Crawford started all but a handful in LF. Reddick was the starting RF for most of the month with Drew on the shelf.  Salty and Varitek split the games behind the plate save for the final two (Lavarnway).  The only guys who got any starts in September that were arguably only there due to the expanded rosters were Lavarnway (3) and Conor Jackson (5).  Everyone else (Aviles, Lowrie, McDonald) were guys who'd probably have been on the 25-man roster anyway.
 
Unless Showalter's arguing that the opposing team's ability to play matchups with expanded bullpens was a culprit?  I seem to recall the biggest issue the team had that month was finding themselves in a lot of 2-0, 3-0 type holes after an inning or two.  Can't really blame that on the opponent's aggressive use of the pen.

 

[bosockboy]

It is ridiculous. Changing the rules for nearly 1/5 of a season is absurd.

 

[dynomite]

It is ridiculous. Changing the rules for nearly 1/5 of a season is absurd.

Not to dredge up an old topic, but it's partly relevant:

And on the other side, I did not find it especially fun that by extra innings in that 162nd game against Tampa Bay the Yankees had pulled their entire starting lineup and replaced them with AAA chaff from the 40-man (not to mention left Scott Proctor on the mound to die).

 

[axx]

Oakland is losing again. Seattle is really going to be kicking themselves during the offseason... they seem destined to come up 1 game short.

 

[axx]

Holland's been great (statistically) since his return so a victory is not going to be easy for Oakland.
 
Can't imagine Detroit and KC want to play a one game playoff, where the loser is home for the WCP but against Lester.