Al Horford - the Celtics' Resurrected Saviour of the Season

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Indicative of how insanely loaded an Embiid/Butler/Simmons/Harris/Reddick team was. That is a metric shitton of talent, particularly before Ben broke.
In that series against the Raptors Embiid was +90 in 237 minutes and the Sixers were -109 in his 99 bench minutes. I know plus/minus is fraught with statistical noise, but a net +199 in a seven-game series is absurd. I think Brown wasn’t great about staggering Embiid and Simmons, but my memory may be crap at this point.

I think the Horford signing was an overreaction by an inexperienced front office. Basically, Horford was brought in to anchor second units without Embiid and they would figure out the fit between them as things went. I think the Sixers also underestimated how big of a downgrade it was from Reddick to our old friend Josh Richardson (who is suddenly making threes again in San Antonio).
 

BigSoxFan

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In that series against the Raptors Embiid was +90 in 237 minutes and the Sixers were -109 in his 99 bench minutes.

I think the Horford signing was an overreaction by an inexperienced front office. Basically, Horford was brought in to anchor second units without Embiid and they would figure out the fit between them as things went. I think the Sixers also underestimated how big of a downgrade it was from Reddick to our old friend Josh Richardson (who is suddenly making threes again in San Antonio).
I always kind of believed that the Horford move was done more to hurt Boston than to help Philly. I mean, there is some value to weakening one of your prime competitors but they probably over thought this one.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Coming into game one, Al had never hit 6 threes in a game. His previou career high was 5, which he did 5 times in the regular season and once in this playoff run. Remember how terrible his three point shooting was in the first half of the season?
 

lovegtm

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Coming into game one, Al had never hit 6 threes in a game. His previou career high was 5, which he did 5 times in the regular season and once in this playoff run. Remember how terrible his three point shooting was in the first half of the season?
Wasn't he working on his release speed, starting in OKC and continuing into this year? It's definitely a lot faster than it used to be, he seems comfortable with it now, and it materially improves his spacing impact.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Wasn't he working on his release speed, starting in OKC and continuing into this year? It's definitely a lot faster than it used to be, he seems comfortable with it now, and it materially improves his spacing impact.
I noticed the quicker release right when the season started, but he was still missing a lot of shots back then. 34% in the regular season, a crazy 46% in the playoffs.
 

lovegtm

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I noticed the quicker release right when the season started, but he was still missing a lot of shots back then. 34% in the regular season, a crazy 46% in the playoffs.
Yup, and 38% after Jan 1, with a possible real reason for the improvement: greater comfort with the quicker release.
 

Devizier

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Horford has been so good this postseason that my main priority in the offseason is to get *another* big who can give the Celtics minutes to help preserve Al in perpetuity.
 

tbrown_01923

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Horford has been so good this postseason that my main priority in the offseason is to get *another* big who can give the Celtics minutes to help preserve Al in perpetuity.
I think that guy is likley Daniel Theis, they are going to be over the cap. I don't know if you are able to us the trade exception to find someone, but a better use of the trade exception would be a 3&D wing off the bench in the chance that nesmith doesn't become that guy. I don't think you will do better than Theis for MLE or Vet Min money... Who knows though, there could be some interested ring chasers...
 

TFisNEXT

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Horford has been so good this postseason that my main priority in the offseason is to get *another* big who can give the Celtics minutes to help preserve Al in perpetuity.
I keep thinking he's not going to surprise me any further but then does. His run this playoffs has been staggering. The tidbits above on his faster 3-point release are really interesting. If that's real, he can still be a huge asset while on the floor even in his advanced years.

Wrap that man in bubble wrap for the first half of next season. Play it KG-style like in his final few seasons in Boston...maybe even more cautious than KG's minutes in regular season.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Wrap that man in bubble wrap for the first half of next season. Play it KG-style like in his final few seasons in Boston...maybe even more cautious than KG's minutes in regular season.
What I would do is get together with Al, his agent, Celtics training staff, and the people who oversaw Al's regimen after he left OKC in March 2021 (to the extent they aren't OKC employees, anyway), and put a similar plan together. If that means he doesn't return to NBA games until January 2023, so be it. If the sides can work out a contract extension that works for everyone, so much the better. (I'm sure a 35 year old guy carrying his tram through the NBA playoffs can come up with some sort of quasi-leigitmate injury to explain his absence from games.)
 

m0ckduck

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Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how they approach filling his role once he eventually does ride off into the sunset.

Since the other starters are locked down for a few years, they could make it a priority to develop a PF/stretch-5 type through the draft. However, if things play out according to plan, they may not enjoy much draft capital in the coming years.

Interestingly, for whatever reason, it does feel like this has been an easier skill set than others to address in the market of aging players who are looking for a chance to win a ring and/or a good fit. Think about all the PJ Brown-type guys we've seen over the years on winning teams, and the availability of guys like Carmelo, Blake, Boogie, etc year after year— not to mention Al himself. Some of these guys are obviously better than others, and most are a far cry from what Al is giving them in this playoff run. But it will be interesting to see if the team takes a low-cost, mix-and-match "value" approach to this position, given the amount of salary that will be tied up in their homegrown players moving forward.
 

NomarsFool

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If I were Al, I would think my floor after next season is probably 2 years for $20 million (total). From the team's perspective, maybe restructuring the deal and pushing some of the 2022-2023 money into the later years might be helpful.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If I were Al, I would think my floor after next season is probably 2 years for $20 million (total). From the team's perspective, maybe restructuring the deal and pushing some of the 2022-2023 money into the later years might be helpful.
I don't think teams are allowed to restructure contracts that way. I would agree that $20 for 2 years is probably the floor, but whether he would take that probably depends on how the rest of the offsesson goes. I wonder if the C's would add a third year as a player option.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think teams are allowed to restructure contracts that way. I would agree that $20 for 2 years is probably the floor, but whether he would take that probably depends on how the rest of the offsesson goes. I wonder if the C's would add a third year as a player option.
yep you can't reduce salary in any year.
My guess is they would do a "renegotiate and extend", given him a nominal amount more this year, then extend.
The limits on the extension is that the first year cannot be less than 60% of the re-negotiated year, and the decrease year over year cannot be more than 8%. So bare minimmum you're looking at 2/31M or so.
 

NomarsFool

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yep you can't reduce salary in any year.
My guess is they would do a "renegotiate and extend", given him a nominal amount more this year
It would seem odd to give him any increase for this year. I like Horford, as I'm sure the team does as well, but he'll be overpaid this coming season, relative to his value, IMO.

The limits on the extension is that the first year cannot be less than 60% of the re-negotiated year, and the decrease year over year cannot be more than 8%. So bare minimmum you're looking at 2/31M or so.
Hmmm...that seems like quite a lot for Horford's age 37 and 38 seasons. I'd say pass.
 
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lexrageorge

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The Celtics guaranteed the remaining $7.5M of Horford's non-guaranteed 2023 salary already, so I don't see them giving him any further bumps for next season. But I can see the Celtics valuing Horford enough at $15.5M/yr to offer him an extension, given their anticipated situation.
 

Cellar-Door

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It would seem odd to give him any increase for this year. I like Horford, as I'm sure the team does as well, but he'll be overpaid this coming season, relative to his value, IMO.



Hmmm...that seems like quite a lot for Horford's age 37 and 38 seasons. I'd say pass.
nominal was just to trigger the re-negotiate and extend, I mean like literally $1 more, because it's less clear what the rules on a normal extension are.
It would be something like $15.9M then $14.63 M at the minimum
 

DGreenwood

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The Celtics guaranteed the remaining $7.5M of Horford's non-guaranteed 2023 salary already, so I don't see them giving him any further bumps for next season. But I can see the Celtics valuing Horford enough at $15.5M/yr to offer him an extension, given their anticipated situation.
DId they actually guarantee it or did they just state that they will guarantee it? I don't think the actual transaction was done, everything I've read says that they will guarantee it, not that they have.

I could see them telling Al that if push comes to shove they will guarantee it all for the one year but let's maintain that flexibility to work out a longer term deal first.
 

Cellar-Door

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DId they actually guarantee it or did they just state that they will guarantee it? I don't think the actual transaction was done.

I could see them telling Al that if push comes to shove they will guarantee it all for the one year but let's maintain that flexibility to work out a longer term deal first.
Why would it matter? The guarantee only matters if they cut him, which they won't.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why would it matter? The guarantee only matters if they cut him, which they won't.
It matters bc it will affect how to structure his contract moving forward. I don’t believe they “officially” guaranteed the $7.5m but everyone knows that the sides are working on an extension.
 

Cellar-Door

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It matters bc it will affect how to structure his contract moving forward. I don’t believe they “officially” guaranteed the $7.5m but everyone knows that the sides are working on an extension.
How do you think it will matter? It's not an unlikely bonus, it's base salary, so any extension would take it as salary, it wouldn't effect the structure at all. The rules are based off salary, not fully guaranteed salary.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How do you think it will matter? It's not an unlikely bonus, it's base salary, so any extension would take it as salary, it wouldn't effect the structure at all. The rules are based off salary, not fully guaranteed salary.
Ugh nm. I was thinking this was a team option for some reason.
 

InstaFace

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How do you think it will matter? It's not an unlikely bonus, it's base salary, so any extension would take it as salary, it wouldn't effect the structure at all. The rules are based off salary, not fully guaranteed salary.
So the rules don't allow you to take a year with salary $X of which only 0.6X is guaranteed, and replace it with a fully-guaranteed $0.8X amount? Wouldn't it be reasonable for a player to believe that was more advantageous to them than the higher-variance option?
 

Cellar-Door

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So the rules don't allow you to take a year with salary $X of which only 0.6X is guaranteed, and replace it with a fully-guaranteed $0.8X amount? Wouldn't it be reasonable for a player to believe that was more advantageous to them than the higher-variance option?
In the NBA guarantees are only for being on the roster on the leaguewide date, any trade, extension or re-negotiation guarantees the full amount by default. But generally, no the NBAPA isn't going to want to allow reductions in any way, especially since non-guaranteed years are limited.
 

lexrageorge

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So the rules don't allow you to take a year with salary $X of which only 0.6X is guaranteed, and replace it with a fully-guaranteed $0.8X amount? Wouldn't it be reasonable for a player to believe that was more advantageous to them than the higher-variance option?
It may be possible to do that with a NLTBE incentive. But definitely not possible with the type of contract that Horford has. The issue is that all NBA salaries become guaranteed by a date in mid-January, and all Horford has to do is be on an NBA roster at that time. And the CBA makes it difficult to impossible to renegotiate contracts, especially if the goal is to simply provide a team cap relief.

In Horford's case, it's 100% moot. If he and the Celtics are negotiating an extension, then it's pretty much a done deal that he will be on the roster at the deadline, so there's no real incentive for him to give up guaranteed money anyway. There's also the issue that the Celtics basically announced they were going to guarantee Horford's full salary anyway, and going back on that promise will have many unintended consequences even if the guarantee hasn't been yet made official.
 

scottyno

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They don't want to reduce his salary by too much anyway, because eventually they're going to want to be able to turn his salary slot into a younger better player.
 

bakahump

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Schroder was Perfectly average!

Whose the celtic at -.4, .68?
Is Jaylen hidden at 0, .55
 

Jimbodandy

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Nope, he's at around x= 0.8, y= 0.6 under Brad Beal's shoulder (easiest way to find him is go straight down from Jarrett Allen).
Even if we're inclined to overrate TL because we're homers, Brad Beal is about 6 miles away on that chart from where he belongs. He should be down with Maxey...at least.
 

slamminsammya

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How do you measure matchup difficulty when a defense is as switchy as the Celtics? You might cover 3 or 4 different guys on a single possession, how do you even define "matchup"?