Al Horford - the Celtics' Resurrected Saviour of the Season

[DeadlySplitter]

He had what?! https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/10/23/sports/celtics-banner-celebration-td-garden-joe-mazzulla/

The Celtics were sized for their rings after winning the championship, but the timing became a bit complicated for Al Horford. The big man said he dislocated his ring finger during the playoffs last season, so his finger was still quite swollen while his measurements were taken.
“I got it way bigger than it’s supposed to be,” Horford said. “So right now, I can’t even wear it because my finger, the swelling kind of came down on it, and it’s just huge. So I kept talking to [Kristaps Porzingis] and the guys and was like, ‘Man, this thing is just enormous. This is pretty cool.’ But I just kept thinking about the size of the ring and the detail on it. They really did a great job on it.”

 

[Euclis20]

Horford's value against Giannis (the single toughest cover in the East) remains enough to justify everything else, although as doing plenty of other good things. His ability to routinely make Giannis take difficult shots in double coverage and tire him out are invaluable.

Giannis vs the rest of the league: 32.1 ppg, .641 TS, 6.8 apg
Giannis vs Boston: 34.3 ppg, .574 TS, 4.0 apg

He gets his points, but not anywhere near his usual efficiency and he's not able to get his teammates involved (just one assist last night). That sequence in the final 2 minutes (Giannis bricks the ill-advised 3, followed by Horford hustling right past him and getting an open look for 3 that he hits) was maybe my favorite moment of the season so far.

 

[lovegtm]

Horford's value against Giannis (the single toughest cover in the East) remains enough to justify everything else, although as doing plenty of other good things. His ability to routinely make Giannis take difficult shots in double coverage and tire him out are invaluable.

Giannis vs the rest of the league: 32.1 ppg, .641 TS, 6.8 apg
Giannis vs Boston: 34.3 ppg, .574 TS, 4.0 apg

He gets his points, but not anywhere near his usual efficiency and he's not able to get his teammates involved (just one assist last night). That sequence in the final 2 minutes (Giannis bricks the ill-advised 3, followed by Horford hustling right past him and getting an open look for 3 that he hits) was maybe my favorite moment of the season so far.

If you can hold a guy to 57% TS without compromising the rest of your defense, you're not going to give up many points.

We saw that last night: Milwaukee shot great on 3s, but couldn't generate a high volume of them because they had a tough time getting Boston in rotation, and Giannis isn't giving enough of a win on his own possessions to make up for that.

If Boston is healthy, Milwaukee doesn't have a path to win a series against them, outside some truly bonkers shooting luck.

 

[tims4wins]

If you can hold a guy to 57% TS without compromising the rest of your defense, you're not going to give up many points.

We saw that last night: Milwaukee shot great on 3s, but couldn't generate a high volume of them because they had a tough time getting Boston in rotation, and Giannis isn't giving enough of a win on his own possessions to make up for that.

If Boston is healthy, Milwaukee doesn't have a path to win a series against them, outside some truly bonkers shooting luck.

The question is whether they can even take more than a game, honestly. Or, a game.

 

[InstaFace]

The question is whether they can even take more than a game, honestly. Or, a game.

I still don't know how Indiana was in a position to win 3 of the 4 games they played against us, and lost them all. Would be a surprise if Rick Carlisle hasn't developed a drinking problem. But this team has a killer instinct that takes aback anyone who gets close to winning a game they really want to win.

I likewise don't really know how Miami won that one game against us, but it did appear to involve the recipe of "they hit their 3s and we didn't".

Milwaukee is a much better team than Jimmy-less Miami, especially with Middleton out there playing defense and hitting 3s instead of whatever dreck was behind him.

 

[DavidTai]

I still don't know how Indiana was in a position to win 3 of the 4 games they played against us, and lost them all. Would be a surprise if Rick Carlisle hasn't developed a drinking problem. But this team has a killer instinct that takes aback anyone who gets close to winning a game they really want to win.

I likewise don't really know how Miami won that one game against us, but it did appear to involve the recipe of "they hit their 3s and we didn't".

Milwaukee is a much better team than Jimmy-less Miami, especially with Middleton out there playing defense and hitting 3s instead of whatever dreck was behind him.

Miami's D is better equipped to handle the Celtics than Milwaukee because they have better wings in general. They just basically abused Brook Lopez and Damien Lilliard on defense whenever they went Orca Mode.

 

[tims4wins]

Miami's D is better equipped to handle the Celtics than Milwaukee because they have better wings in general. They just basically abused Brook Lopez and Damien Lilliard on defense whenever they went Orca Mode.

I love Orca Mode - is that due to Jaylen’s quote comparing the Celts offense to killer whales attacking seals?

 

[DavidTai]

I love Orca Mode - is that due to Jaylen’s quote comparing the Celts offense to killer whales attacking seals?

Yes. Find the old, the slow, and the incapable, separate them from their pack, and start feeding.

 

[lovegtm]

Yes. Find the old, the slow, and the incapable, separate them from their pack, and start feeding.

Hey, Brook Lopez's ACT wasn't that bad!

 

[RorschachsMask]

Al is dangerously close to passing Pierce as my favorite Celtics player ever.

 

[benhogan]

Mobley is becoming a problem (41pts today - 6/8 from 3) good thing we have Tatum & Horford to guard him on the perimeter.

Brad has to be working on an extension for Al at the moment

 

[Ed Hillel]

This probably happened earlier this year, but I think we are now safely in the "Future Hall of Famer Al Horford" territory, and that is something that I like.

 

[Saints Rest]

This probably happened earlier this year, but I think we are now safely in the "Future Hall of Famer Al Horford" territory, and that is something that I like.

He probably makes it as much due to his college career.
I’m wondering if he’s moving into “Number in the Rafters” territory. Another chip likely makes that happen.

 

[TripleOT]

Horford is the consigliere of the Celtics.

And he’s a wartime consigliere, who comes though under the most pressure.

If Boston wins another title with him, Al’s number needs to rafter. As the first big time free agent to sign with the Celtics, he smashed the “free agents won’t sign with Boston” narrative. Now, we seldom hear that players don’t want to play in Boston , and Horford has been a big part of that.

 

[lovegtm]

What are the Horford predictions for next season? I am going to say he comes back on a 1-year deal, at $4M-$8M.

- he sees other guys playing well who are 1-2 years older (LeBron, CP3), which both proves concept and makes him competitive
- he likes the Boston situation
- his kids are old enough to appreciate what he's doing, and he'll never get another chance to show them what he's like at this level. Imo, this cuts the other direction from "I want to spend time with my family now"

 

[chilidawg]

I'd guess back at $10M. Gotta show him a little respect.

I think your reasons are about right. Must be really special to be able to share this with your kids.

 

[benhogan]

Horford is the consigliere of the Celtics. And he’s a wartime consigliere, who comes though under the most pressure.

If Boston wins another title with him, Al’s number needs to rafter. As the first big time free agent to sign with the Celtics, he smashed the “free agents won’t sign with Boston” narrative. Now, we seldom hear that players don’t want to play in Boston , and Horford has been a big part of that.

The bolded is hilarious and true.

On another note, is NBA free agency even a thing anymore?

Congrats Daryl Morey you get the right to outbid Steve Ballmer & jam your roster with a 34-yr-old Paul George for $212M over the next 4 seasons.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What are the Horford predictions for next season? I am going to say he comes back on a 1-year deal, at $4M-$8M.

- he sees other guys playing well who are 1-2 years older (LeBron, CP3), which both proves concept and makes him competitive
- he likes the Boston situation
- his kids are old enough to appreciate what he's doing, and he'll never get another chance to show them what he's like at this level. Imo, this cuts the other direction from "I want to spend time with my family now"

Paul signed for $10m and LeBron for $48m. I'd expect something in the Paul range. I would not expect a $4-6m slap in the face....maybe like $8-12m.

 

[lovegtm]

Paul signed for $10m and LeBron for $48m. I'd expect something in the Paul range. I would not expect a $4-6m slap in the face....maybe like $8-12m.

I agree that $4-6 is the low end, and probably not happening. I would also offer you 5-1 odds on a public bet (up to $2K) that, if Horford does not retire, his new contract is not higher AAV than the current one.

 

[InstaFace]

I agree that $4-6 is the low end, and probably not happening. I would also offer you 5-1 odds on a public bet (up to $2K) that, if Horford does not retire, his new contract is not higher AAV than the current one.

Well shit, I'd take that for a $100 bet on my side to charity. I'm generally on your side of the question, but 5-to-1 odds? Like, I think it's more likely that his salary next year is flat or even down a bit than it is to be up, but those odds gotta be north of 16.7%, in a world where the cap has gone up like 30%+ since the last time he really negotiated terms.

 

[lovegtm]

Well shit, I'd take that for a $100 bet on my side to charity. I'm generally on your side of the question, but 5-to-1 odds? Like, I think it's more likely that his salary next year is flat or even down a bit than it is to be up, but those odds gotta be north of 16.7%, in a world where the cap has gone up like 30%+ since the last time he really negotiated terms.

I'm happy to give the bet. I think he gave the Celtics a nice deal last time, and the two sides are pretty anchored to $10M or less being a reasonable number, and everyone knows he'll be a couple years older. I actually think 16.7% is a bit high for > $10M, but was putting my finger in the wind and trying to give odds that were attractive.

 

[InstaFace]

I'm happy to give the bet. I think he gave the Celtics a nice deal last time, and the two sides are pretty anchored to $10M or less being a reasonable number, and everyone knows he'll be a couple years older. I actually think 16.7% is a bit high for > $10M, but was putting my finger in the wind and trying to give odds that were attractive.

So, just to be clear,

- If Horford signs a deal >$10M for next season, you pay $500 to charity of my choice,
- If Horford signs a deal <=$10M for next season, I pay $100 to charity of your choice,
- If he retires it's a push, and we instead put the money towards drowning our respective sorrows

If so, I'm in. And will give HRB space to take more of your action, since he was the one originally offered it

 

[lovegtm]

So, just to be clear,

- If Horford signs a deal >$10M for next season, you pay $500 to charity of my choice,
- If Horford signs a deal <=$10M for next season, I pay $100 to charity of your choice,
- If he retires it's a push, and we instead put the money towards drowning our respective sorrows

If so, I'm in. And will give HRB space to take more of your action, since he was the one originally offered it

Yes, that is correct.

 

[benhogan]

Yes, that is correct.

If they deal both KP/Jrue they may give Horford a bit more than $10M to play one more season until they develop their Center of the future (which again I think is Tatum in high-leverage situations in a few seasons).

May just want to leave it to one bet since there could structurally be 1yr cash availability

 

[lovegtm]

If they deal both KP/Jrue they may give Horford a bit more than $10M to play one more season until they develop their Center of the future (which again I think is Tatum in high-leverage situations in a few seasons).

May just want to leave it to one bet since there could structurally be 1yr cash availability

I seriously doubt they will hand out money "just because", particularly to someone with Horford's career earnings and life satisfaction in Boston.

 

[benhogan]

I seriously doubt they will hand out money "just because", particularly to someone with Horford's career earnings and life satisfaction in Boston.

Yea I've been hoping they bring him back at under $10M for a while BUT if KP + Jrue were shipped because of $$$ the new owners may be willing to pay a bit more for Al as a PR move.

BUT again I hope you are right

 

[Euclis20]

If they deal both KP/Jrue they may give Horford a bit more than $10M to play one more season until they develop their Center of the future (which again I think is Tatum in high-leverage situations in a few seasons).

May just want to leave it to one bet since there could structurally be 1yr cash availability

Tatum can guard most opposing centers for important stretches (as we saw in the playoffs with Bam, Mobley, Turner and Gafford/Lively) because he's an excellent rebounder and post defender for his size, and it's great because it throws a major wrench in the opposing pick and roll while also allowing our true center (typically Horford/KP, but Kornet and Tillman both got some run) to guard the weakest perimeter player and sag into the lane for rim protection. Tatum is a cheat code defensively in this regard, and it's occasionally frustrating how few national voices recognize his role in shutting down the Dallas offense, most just credit JB on Luka or Jrue on Kyrie.

That said, there's a major difference between "Tatum can guard opposing centers" and "Tatum can actually be our center." For all his gifts, Tatum isn't a particularly effective rim protector (feels like the one thing he's not above average at) and without a true center on the court, the rebounding suffers greatly (even if Tatum can generally keep the opposing center off the glass, none of the other non-bigs are good enough rebounders to make up the difference). I don't think any of this changes anytime soon, there will almost always need to be a true center on the court, even if they aren't guarding the opposing teams true center. Rim protection is already a problem when Al is the center and KP/Luke are on the bench, it will be worse if Tatum is the only "big" on the court.

 

[lovegtm]

Tatum can guard most opposing centers for important stretches (as we saw in the playoffs with Bam, Mobley, Turner and Gafford/Lively) because he's an excellent rebounder and post defender for his size, and it's great because it throws a major wrench in the opposing pick and roll while also allowing our true center (typically Horford/KP, but Kornet and Tillman both got some run) to guard the weakest perimeter player and sag into the lane for rim protection. Tatum is a cheat code defensively in this regard, and it's occasionally frustrating how few national voices recognize his role in shutting down the Dallas offense, most just credit JB on Luka or Jrue on Kyrie.

That said, there's a major difference between "Tatum can guard opposing centers" and "Tatum can actually be our center." For all his gifts, Tatum isn't a particularly effective rim protector (feels like the one thing he's not above average at) and without a true center on the court, the rebounding suffers greatly (even if Tatum can generally keep the opposing center off the glass, none of the other non-bigs are good enough rebounders to make up the difference). I don't think any of this changes anytime soon, there will almost always need to be a true center on the court, even if they aren't guarding the opposing teams true center. Rim protection is already a problem when Al is the center and KP/Luke are on the bench, it will be worse if Tatum is the only "big" on the court.

Yes, if anything, the Celtics are more into 2-bigs than most NBA teams, and clearly have internal/qualitative analysis that suggests it's an underrated approach.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yes, if anything, the Celtics are more into 2-bigs than most NBA teams, and clearly have internal/qualitative analysis that suggests it's an underrated approach.

Is it viewed as an underrated approach because it’s 2-bigz or is it underrated as the alternative is to play a really bad wing those rotation minutes?

 

[lovegtm]

Is it viewed as an underrated approach because it’s 2-bigz or is it underrated as the alternative is to play a really bad wing those rotation minutes?

They'd probably play a good wing instead of 2-bigz if they had one, but they're somewhat unique in being willing to play replacement bigs over replacement wings.

 

[InstaFace]

Yes, if anything, the Celtics are more into 2-bigs than most NBA teams, and clearly have internal/qualitative analysis that suggests it's an underrated approach.

During the Jaylen-out games recently, we were running a 2-bigs, 3-guards lineup out there when Tatum was resting. KP / Al, and DWhite / Jrue / Pritchard. I guess the 3rd wing is Hauser, and you can argue that he's got a wider range of guys he can cover defensively than Pritchard does - so you can only get away with that sort of lineup when you've got KP out there to paper over the penetration that Pritchard will still occasionally give up. It was a very interesting choice, I'm not sure I've seen an NBA lineup without a true wing... well, in many years, maybe ever. I've seen no-center / small-center, I've seen "who needs a guard, fuck it, Lebron can bring the ball up" jumbo lineups, but "Missing Middle" is a new one on me.

 

[benhogan]

Tatum can guard most opposing centers for important stretches (as we saw in the playoffs with Bam, Mobley, Turner and Gafford/Lively) because he's an excellent rebounder and post defender for his size, and it's great because it throws a major wrench in the opposing pick and roll while also allowing our true center (typically Horford/KP, but Kornet and Tillman both got some run) to guard the weakest perimeter player and sag into the lane for rim protection. Tatum is a cheat code defensively in this regard, and it's occasionally frustrating how few national voices recognize his role in shutting down the Dallas offense, most just credit JB on Luka or Jrue on Kyrie.

That said, there's a major difference between "Tatum can guard opposing centers" and "Tatum can actually be our center." For all his gifts, Tatum isn't a particularly effective rim protector (feels like the one thing he's not above average at) and without a true center on the court, the rebounding suffers greatly (even if Tatum can generally keep the opposing center off the glass, none of the other non-bigs are good enough rebounders to make up the difference). I don't think any of this changes anytime soon, there will almost always need to be a true center on the court, even if they aren't guarding the opposing teams true center. Rim protection is already a problem when Al is the center and KP/Luke are on the bench, it will be worse if Tatum is the only "big" on the court.

Tatum continues to get bigger. He's going through guys in the lane, when in previous years he avoided contact. He's upping his rebounds. AND the Celtics go positionless when playing switch/match-up zone.

My estimate is Tatum/Brown/White + 2 bigger WINGs (Hauser? + another) will be unguardable by Playoffs '26 & and solid defensively.

Brad will populate the roster with a handful of cheap, Fungible5s to sop up those regular season Center minutes with double BIG lineups which is the correct play.

During the Jaylen-out games recently, we were running a 2-bigs, 3-guards lineup out there when Tatum was resting. KP / Al, and DWhite / Jrue / Pritchard. I guess the 3rd wing is Hauser, and you can argue that he's got a wider range of guys he can cover defensively than Pritchard does - so you can only get away with that sort of lineup when you've got KP out there to paper over the penetration that Pritchard will still occasionally give up. It was a very interesting choice, I'm not sure I've seen an NBA lineup without a true wing... well, in many years, maybe ever. I've seen no-center / small-center, I've seen "who needs a guard, fuck it, Lebron can bring the ball up" jumbo lineups, but "Missing Middle" is a new one on me.

Joe wanted Walsh to step into the rotation with JB out, but Jordon just isn't there physically. He had a career-high in points during two recent blowouts. BUT he has made 1 FG in ~80 minutes of games decided by 10pts or less this year. He's just too timid in close games. He has a future just needs some more time.

KornQ are both physical on D. And add value rolling to the rim + the offensive glass. They are filling in as #9 and 10 in the rotation.

 

[joe dokes]

Joe wanted Walsh to step into the rotation with JB out, but Jordon just isn't there physically. He had a career-high in points during two recent blowouts. BUT he has made 1 FG in ~80 minutes of games decided by 10pts or less this year. He's just too timid in close games. He has a future just needs some more time.

KornQ are both physical on D. And add value rolling to the rim + the offensive glass. They are filling in as #9 and 10 in the rotation.

Kornet gets pushed around, too, but he keeps fighting and wins some/enough physical battles. Walsh, as you say, becomes timid, and doesn't even try. Even if he eventually gets out-muscled, just being in there affects the other team, as opposed to giving them the easy rebound and release up court or offensive rebound and put-back.

 

[benhogan]

Kornet gets pushed around, too, but he keeps fighting and wins some/enough physical battles. Walsh, as you say, becomes timid, and doesn't even try. Even if he eventually gets out-muscled, just being in there affects the other team, as opposed to giving them the easy rebound and release up court or offensive rebound and put-back.

Agreed. Luke adds much more floor value than Walsh. I don't want to come off as a Jordon denier because he owns a lot of obvious tools. BUT my eye test says he can't hold a spot on the floor against bigger WINGs or BIGs, & gets swallowed up under the rim. He isn't quick enough to disrupt ball handlers on the perimeter. For a guy hanging his hat on defense, that's too many holes to fill. Offensively, he rarely makes hard cuts or gets offensive boards. His per/36 min numbers are terrible (and worse in non-garbage time). He doesn't need to be guarded and the C's play 4 on 5 on offense during his minutes in close games.

CJM will continue to force-feed JW minutes, so he gets more NBA experience & by next season maybe he can be a TOP10 roster contributor (rotational player). If we're being completely honest (and not prospect-humping) Petersen has brought more bench energy than Walsh this season.

Back to the thread, the Celtics have a KP injury/Horford age problem, Brad saw this coming and it's why he quickly signed/extended KornXQ. It's a coin toss that KP/Al will both be healthy/playable in the playoffs. The Celtics are better served to play KornQ (X isn't right after surgery) as that hedge. Further, both give the Celtics (as #9/10 players) the best chance at winning every night.

 

[joe dokes]

I don't want to come off as a Jordon denier because he owns a lot of obvious tools.

No such reticence here. I own tools, too. But I can't build anything.
The door is always open on the "Walsh will never be a solid NBA contributor" wagon. (I do not, however, root for him to fail just so I can be "right.")