Al Horford: he gawn

Eddie Jurak

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It's about Al Horford at the 4, AB is a byproduct of proving it works.

Feel free to put Amir or Theis in there at your leisure, still works...
There's no way, with Horford and Theis both in the game, that Horford wouldn't be called on to defend the best big on the other team.
 

benhogan

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There's no way, with Horford and Theis both in the game, that Horford wouldn't be called on to defend the best big on the other team.
They played 244 minutes in 43 games together last year. I recall Daniel Theis covering the Center when he played.

People are squeamish about Horford playing defense on the perimeter, I can't image how they'd feel about Theis there
 
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Big John

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Theis is a decent defender anywhere on the floor, so long as he can stay away from dumb fouls.
 

benhogan

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Theis is a decent defender anywhere on the floor, so long as he can stay away from dumb fouls.
agree. I'd rather see Daniel Theis start and play with Kemba/Tatum/Brown over Enis Kanter....but this is getting off the thread's topic of Al Horford's post mortem
 

Devizier

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Theis has his strengths and he held up surprisingly well against opposing bigs (given his size) but he is still very small for the position.
 

lovegtm

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Doris' "well, when you score 8 points, I guess you earn the right to do that" was awesome last night after Horford gave Theis the "too small" sign in the post.

That was one of the lamest things I've seen in awhile, especially when your team is down 3-0 in large part due to your shitty play.
 

bigq

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This is going to happen. Mark it down. Tatum will take 18-19 shots a game next year and be scoring around 20-22 points a game, while expanding his overall repertoire. Brown will take about 15 shots a game and average about 18-20 points while being an elite defender. They will be 21 and 22 years old, respectively, not yet even in the first years of their primes. Neither may end up being a 29-30 points a game scorer, but they will both be all-star caliber players.
Pretty well done here, BaseballJones. You nailed it.
 

BaseballJones

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Pretty well done here, BaseballJones. You nailed it.
Heh. Blind squirrel, acorn, etc.

Actual stats:

Tatum: 18.6 fga, 23.4 points
Brown: 15.6 fga, 20.3 points

Both, as it turns out, are elite defenders.

But honestly, it wasn't that hard a prediction. Though you look at where they were last year and the improvement is remarkable:

2018-19
Tatum: 13.1 fga, 15.7 points
Brown: 10.7 fga, 13.0 points

It's so obvious that the key move for Boston this offseason was letting Kyrie go and acquiring Kemba. Kyrie might be a more transcendent basketball talent (he might not be but he might be) than Kemba, but in terms of a player who could get the most out of Tatum and Brown, it's so clear that Kemba is far superior to Kyrie. Kyrie NEEDED to be the alpha and that stunted the growth of Tatum and Brown. Kemba is an alpha player who doesn't need to be the alpha, and has clearly tried to push Tatum and Brown to new heights, knowing it would be best for their growth and the betterment of the team.

So as a guy you want for THIS roster, Kemba >>>>>>>>>> Kyrie, and it isn't particularly close.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Someone should tell Anna that Al was the one who wanted to play next to a center. https://sixerswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/19/danny-ainge-thinks-al-horford-no-longer-wanted-to-play-center-position/

Philly actually played better in general when Embiid sat.
People keep saying this. Embiid was PHI's best player; he played 30+ minutes a game in a series where PHI got outscored. If Embiid has a positive +/-, don't people think that PHI would be leading the series?

It's not that PHI played better when Embiid sat (IMO - I don't know where to find stats to back this up without doing a deep dive, and I don't care enough to do that) it's that the Cs bench played a lot worse than the starters. Embiid for the most part spent his 30 minutes facing the Cs top 5. When he sat, I would guess that the Cs' lineup was dominated by bench players.

At least that would be the way I would coach.
 

lovegtm

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Someone should tell Anna that Al was the one who wanted to play next to a center. https://sixerswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/19/danny-ainge-thinks-al-horford-no-longer-wanted-to-play-center-position/


People keep saying this. Embiid was PHI's best player; he played 30+ minutes a game in a series where PHI got outscored. If Embiid has a positive +/-, don't people think that PHI would be leading the series?

It's not that PHI played better when Embiid sat (IMO - I don't know where to find stats to back this up without doing a deep dive, and I don't care enough to do that) it's that the Cs bench played a lot worse than the starters. Embiid for the most part spent his 30 minutes facing the Cs top 5. When he sat, I would guess that the Cs' lineup was dominated by bench players.

At least that would be the way I would coach.
I mean, Embiid completely owned +/- last year against Toronto, and the Sixers got smoked when he sat, even with Butler and Simmons on the team. Not sure I'd read too much into this given the shittiness of Harris and Horford.

I do love Al throwing Ainge under the bus with the "I don't want to play center" thing and then sniping at the Sixers about their roster construction/lineups. Dude has a surprising amount of toxicity in him: maybe he's getting bitter as he sees his chance to win a title slipping by.
 

JCizzle

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I do love Al throwing Ainge under the bus with the "I don't want to play center" thing and then sniping at the Sixers about their roster construction/lineups. Dude has a surprising amount of toxicity in him: maybe he's getting bitter as he sees his chance to win a title slipping by.
Seems to be more and more common for big men to take this approach. From everything I've heard, AD would make the Lakers much better if he played the 5 full-time, but he hates it and wants to be out there with guys like Dwight and JaVale.
 

InstaFace

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At what price would we have been OK retaining Horford? Surely at Kanter's $5M, though that leaves us without a big beefy center. He'd probably chafe at not starting behind Theis, in fact I think you'd have to start him. Maybe $10-15M for 3 years? He's not what he was as a scoring force, but his defensive intelligence, organizing, and passive ability really complements the core strengths of our team.
 

lovegtm

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At what price would we have been OK retaining Horford? Surely at Kanter's $5M, though that leaves us without a big beefy center. He'd probably chafe at not starting behind Theis, in fact I think you'd have to start him. Maybe $10-15M for 3 years? He's not what he was as a scoring force, but his defensive intelligence, organizing, and passive ability really complements the core strengths of our team.
I think they were likely fine in the 3/60 range, and Philly just went way over that. That 3rd year is a lot easier to move as trade ballast when it’s 20M and not 27+13M
 

benhogan

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I think they were likely fine in the 3/60 range, and Philly just went way over that. That 3rd year is a lot easier to move as trade ballast when it’s 20M and not 27+13M
Yea that sounds correct. I think that was about the price that was speculated around here. We thought Al would re-up and take a discount to play for the Celtics. BUT no one blamed him (not Danny or Brad) for taking that Sixer overpay.
As far as playing Center, Brad played him there for over 90% of his minutes last season, which was partially due to Baynes being injured last season. Al was probably frustrated playing next to MaMo, who wasn't terrific helping on defense down low.
 

NomarsFool

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I know it's fun to pick on Embiid, but I don't really lay the blame on him for the loss. He's still a really good player, they just don't have a good team around him.

BTW, if I was Al, I would ask my wife not to post stuff like that. How is that helpful for team dynamics?
 

128

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I know it's fun to pick on Embiid, but I don't really lay the blame on him for the loss. He's still a really good player, they just don't have a good team around him.

BTW, if I was Al, I would ask my wife not to post stuff like that. How is that helpful for team dynamics?
Anna is his sister.
 

lovegtm

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I know it's fun to pick on Embiid, but I don't really lay the blame on him for the loss. He's still a really good player, they just don't have a good team around him.

BTW, if I was Al, I would ask my wife not to post stuff like that. How is that helpful for team dynamics?
Sister, but yes.
 

InstaFace

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But would we even want him on 3/60, knowing what we know right now? First of all, that's all luxury-taxed money for us. Secondly, we saw how well he was playing even at the 4, are we sure that a switch back to the 5 (with him grumbling a lot, we may assume) would change his value all that much?
 

benhogan

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But would we even want him on 3/60, knowing what we know right now? First of all, that's all luxury-taxed money for us. Secondly, we saw how well he was playing even at the 4, are we sure that a switch back to the 5 (with him grumbling a lot, we may assume) would change his value all that much?
I'd rather have Theis at his price then Horford 35-36 at $20MM/yr, especially with the declining salary cap.

Danny luck strikes again
 

InstaFace

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Reporting stated that BOS offered Horford a "pretty healthy" four year deal so I assume 4/$80M was the ballpark at which we would have had Al if he agreed to resign.

Note Al's current contract is reported to be 4/$97M with $12M of bonuses tied to championships.
Al's current contract is:

2019-20: $28.0M
2020-21: $27.5M
2021-22: $27.0M
2022-23: $26.5M

First 3 years are fully guaranteed. Last year has $14.5M fully guaranteed (hence the $97M), a Finals appearance in the first 3 years guarantees another $5M of it, and a championship in any of those years guarantees the full amount.

Given time value of money, the contract might as well be viewed as 3 yrs / $97M, with a $12M option. If they cut him before year 4, they're out the $14.5M as dead money; retaining him would only cost that incremental $12 (Which might end up being partly or fully guaranteed).
 

NomarsFool

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I believe it was reported that Boston ended up offering something pretty close (if not the same) as his deal with Philadelphia, but that Al felt like he had gone too far down the road with Philadelphia to back out (he's no MaMo).

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I believe it was reported that Boston ended up offering something pretty close (if not the same) as his deal with Philadelphia, but that Al felt like he had gone too far down the road with Philadelphia to back out (he's no MaMo).

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
Red was right about Danny.
 

nighthob

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I believe it was reported that Boston ended up offering something pretty close (if not the same) as his deal with Philadelphia, but that Al felt like he had gone too far down the road with Philadelphia to back out (he's no MaMo).

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
Let's be fair to Marcus Morris, the Lakers strung him along as they waited for Kawhi, and then backed out of their offer. LeBron arranged for an MLE deal with San Antonio to compensate Marcus for having turned down good offers as they waited for the free agent market to shake out. In the end he told LeBron's agency to go fuck themselves and signed the deal with the Knicks. When you lie down with dogs you should expect to get bit.
 

chilidawg

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Someone should tell Anna that Al was the one who wanted to play next to a center. https://sixerswire.usatoday.com/2019/07/19/danny-ainge-thinks-al-horford-no-longer-wanted-to-play-center-position/


People keep saying this. Embiid was PHI's best player; he played 30+ minutes a game in a series where PHI got outscored. If Embiid has a positive +/-, don't people think that PHI would be leading the series?

It's not that PHI played better when Embiid sat (IMO - I don't know where to find stats to back this up without doing a deep dive, and I don't care enough to do that) it's that the Cs bench played a lot worse than the starters. Embiid for the most part spent his 30 minutes facing the Cs top 5. When he sat, I would guess that the Cs' lineup was dominated by bench players.

At least that would be the way I would coach.
It's not a real deep dive. Philly was a -21.2 pts/100 possessions when Embiid played and +10.7 when he sat. You could argue that he played against the starters and thus better competition, but Boston's bench players all had healthy +/- numbers so I don't think that holds water.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2020.html