After Soto

LogansDad

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I think the problem that Breslow has is that the team is in a weird spot. I don't think it's a "good" spot, necessarily, but I also don't think it's a "bad" spot. The spot I speak of is that they have decent to good MLB talent at every position on the field, except maybe catcher.

The problem that causes is that it definitely feels like they need to upgrade, well, somewhere, but the only way to really do that is by signing someone like Teoscar or Bregman, but the team has four players who are on the cusp of being MLB ready, and by signing either of those two to a 4+ (6+ it looks like in the case of Bregman), you are immediately blocking these guys who you want to very soon be getting MLB at bats. You also have Grissom, who looked much better in the final couple weeks of the season, and you need to find ways to get all of these guys playing time not just in 2025 but in the future.

Additionally, I remain unconvinced that Teoscar Hernandez, for instance, is going to provide 4 year/$60M more in value than Kristian Campbell appears ready to provide right now. BUT, any or all of the big four could most definitely bust, and then the team stinks.

We all (yes, me included even though I have been accused of "Pollyannism" in the past) want the team to compete in 2025. The front office seems to want that as well. But they are in a position where the guys they can get on a 1 year contract/expiring trade (like last year's O'Neill) just aren't enough of an improvement to help the team compete this year, but the guys who can be big improvements are going to cost too many years of roster space to get them to sign.

This is why I lean towards "sign Carson Kelly (who is, frankly, my biggest non-pitching desire for this team, and who I would happily see them give a 3 year deal to), get one high end starter, and fill in bullpen holes, but be more aggressive early in the season with making trades to supplement the needs that arise".

I really feel like this team was a lot closer to competing for a playoff spot last year than they ended up, and if the FO would have acted sooner to get bullpen help the season could have worked out differently, and I hope that is a lesson that Breslow learned last year.
 

PedroisGod

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- Sign Fried
- Trade Crawford and Winckowski to the Cubs for Suzuki
- Trade Abreu, Grissom and Rafaela to the White Sox for Crochet (and extend him)
- Sign Carson Kelly
- Re-sign Chris Martin

Duran - CF
Devers - 3B
Story - SS
Casas - 1B
Suzuki - DH
Yoshida - LF
Campbell - 2B
Anthony - RF
Kelly - C

Hamilton, Wong, Refsnyder, Gonzalez

Fried, Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Priester, Criswell, Fitts)
Hendriks, Slaten, Chapman, Martin. Whitlock, Wilson, Weissert, Bernardino
We're more or less on the same page here with the exception of the pieces going to Chicago for Crochet. I'd rather they move Mayer than Abreu.

Suzuki would be my first choice for a RH bat. I like the idea of a Crochet trade and signing Fried.

If they're going to sign a FA bat, I think I'd grudgingly go with Bregman. I don't love his exit velocity numbers and how his chase rate went south this year, but generally he's a patient hitter who doesn't strike out much with pull power. I also think he could play 2B and not immediately force a move over to 1B for Devers. And while we make fun of intangibles, he's never been part of a bad team. I think he'd be a positive in the clubhouse. I won't be mad if they sign Teo, but I have some big concerns about a guy who strikes out that much and is already 32.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I was responding to a post about being happy with just going with the kids and foregoing high priced top tier free agent signings.

The kids will continue to arrive over the next few years, but the team will likely not be a serious contender until 2027 with a kids only strategy.
Honestly the Sox could do absolutely nothing else but start the season with Anthony in LF and they'd be a "contender". Add another FA SP in Fried or Burns and they're right there.
I also am thinking they should empty the Soto money into Sasaki- obviously not $70M..... but adding Fried for $30M and Sasaki for $25M is basically that right there.
Then you can think of dealing Crawford and Yoshida and to add a DH RH bat in a trade? I still would like a DH type that could spell 3B and 1B in case of an injury- I guess Romy works there
 

simplicio

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I think the problem that Breslow has is that the team is in a weird spot. I don't think it's a "good" spot, necessarily, but I also don't think it's a "bad" spot. The spot I speak of is that they have decent to good MLB talent at every position on the field, except maybe catcher.

The problem that causes is that it definitely feels like they need to upgrade, well, somewhere, but the only way to really do that is by signing someone like Teoscar or Bregman, but the team has four players who are on the cusp of being MLB ready, and by signing either of those two to a 4+ (6+ it looks like in the case of Bregman), you are immediately blocking these guys who you want to very soon be getting MLB at bats. You also have Grissom, who looked much better in the final couple weeks of the season, and you need to find ways to get all of these guys playing time not just in 2025 but in the future.

Additionally, I remain unconvinced that Teoscar Hernandez, for instance, is going to provide 4 year/$60M more in value than Kristian Campbell appears ready to provide right now. BUT, any or all of the big four could most definitely bust, and then the team stinks.

We all (yes, me included even though I have been accused of "Pollyannism" in the past) want the team to compete in 2025. The front office seems to want that as well. But they are in a position where the guys they can get on a 1 year contract/expiring trade (like last year's O'Neill) just aren't enough of an improvement to help the team compete this year, but the guys who can be big improvements are going to cost too many years of roster space to get them to sign.

This is why I lean towards "sign Carson Kelly (who is, frankly, my biggest non-pitching desire for this team, and who I would happily see them give a 3 year deal to), get one high end starter, and fill in bullpen holes, but be more aggressive early in the season with making trades to supplement the needs that arise".

I really feel like this team was a lot closer to competing for a playoff spot last year than they ended up, and if the FO would have acted sooner to get bullpen help the season could have worked out differently, and I hope that is a lesson that Breslow learned last year.
I agree with all this. I think the only way to fit a Teoscar/Suzuki bat in is paying Yoshida to go away, and I question whether that's a good use of resources.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It’s hard to know. The reports are usually that the Sox have strong interest in a player, and then later on, not as much as other teams.
 

PedroisGod

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Oh right.... I somehow had it in my head that Harper was the DH. Anyhow... I could see them going that route- they'll have the money from Schwarber available.
I was just running through that exercise with my brother. I can see Vlad using the Yankees for $, but we already know he doesn't really want to play there. The Yankees might also sign a 1B (like Walker) this offseason and would have Walker, Stanton, and eventually Judge between the 1b/DH spots. The Jays have him now and haven't been able to lock him up. The Dodgers have Ohtani and Freeman at 1B/DH. Even if the Mets have Alonso they could probably have Vlad DH.

Our bet is that the Vlad market would look something like Boston, Toronto, Mets, possibly Yankees, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and San Diego. Could probably get the Cubs involved there as well. Is that enough to push it towards the $450m-$500m range?
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I was just running through that exercise with my brother. I can see Vlad using the Yankees for $, but we already know he doesn't really want to play there. The Yankees might also sign a 1B (like Walker) this offseason and would have Walker, Stanton, and eventually Judge between the 1b/DH spots. The Jays have him now and haven't been able to lock him up. The Dodgers have Ohtani and Freeman at 1B/DH. Even if the Mets have Alonso they could probably have Vlad DH.

Our bet is that the Vlad market would look something like Boston, Toronto, Mets, possibly Yankees, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and San Diego. Is that enough to push it towards the $450m-$500m range?
I also think the Yankees will be trying to shop Stanton.... .well I should say I thought this before they lost out on Soto, now I'm not so sure. But yeah, the MFY's don't really have a spot for a 1B/DH type if they move Judge there.
I wouldn't rule out Texas coming in with big money for Vlad either.
 

PedroisGod

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I also think the Yankees will be trying to shop Stanton.... .well I should say I thought this before they lost out on Soto, now I'm not so sure. But yeah, the MFY's don't really have a spot for a 1B/DH type if they move Judge there.
I wouldn't rule out Texas coming in with big money for Vlad either.
I could see this as well and I could also see the Angels. They haven't been shy to spend before and have the emotional tie with his dad having played there.
 
Feb 9, 2024
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It's hard to say what the Sox "need to do now that Soto is signed" because there are so many variables and contingencies. If they:
- sign Fried and Teoscar then maybe Abreu is trade bait if we think Anthony is ready.
-or maybe we sign Teoscar to be DH because we can off-load Masa on somebody if we eat some salary
- or maybe we go all in on pitching and sign Fried or Burnes, trade for Crochet and sign Scott for the bullpen. Offensively, we hope the kids all come through.
- we could trade for Suzuki to give us a RH bat
-we could go trade route and shoot big, maybe Vlad. What would that cost? Casas plus Mayer?
- we could sign Bregman and move Devers to 1B. In that case we could trade Casas for pitching or Casas could DH and we could sign FA pitchers.
-we could sign Alonso to play 1B or DH and be a RH bat in the middle of the order.

Bottom line is that there area still so many ways to get better. We are in a great situation with both money to spend and cost controlled young players that MIGHT be available in trade depending on who else we acquire. I like some options better than others, but I'm not completely opposed to any of those scenarios IF the proper counter moves are also made. This roster is close. There isn't just 1 direction to put us at the top of the AL East discussion. The only thing I don't want to see is indecision and inactivity. BE AGGRESSIVE!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It’s hard to know. The reports are usually that the Sox have strong interest in a player, and then later on, not as much as other teams.
Yeah, I think "strong interest" has become a meaningless buzz word. Whenever I hear it, I assume the player's agent is spinning a check-in or brief conversation with a team as "strong interest" in order to raise the player's profile on the market. It tells us absolutely nothing about anything.
 

BaseballJones

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Sign Fried
Sign Eovaldi
Rotation becomes Fried, Eovaldi, Houck, Bello, Giolito (with Fitts, Criswell, Crawford in AAA)

Sign one more good RP
Bullpen becomes Whitlock, Chapman, Hendriks, Slatan, new guy, Wilson, Booser, Kelly (with a bunch of other guys in AAA)

Sign Teoscar
Outfield becomes Hernandez in left, Duran in center, and Abreu in right

Trade Yoshida (subsidized) for a prospect

When Anthony arrives, he moves to LF and Teoscar moves to DH

Sign veteran C to a short deal, holding the fort til Teel arrives

Lineup becomes:

C - Wong
1b - Casas
2b - Grissom
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Teoscar
CF - Duran
RF - Abreu
DH - Refsnyder (then when Anthony arrives, Anthony in LF and Teoscar at DH)
Bench - vet C, Hamilton, Rafaela, Romy (Campbell also on the way which makes someone expendable)

1 CF Duran
2 SS Story
3 3b Devers
4 LF Teoscar
5 1b Casas
6 DH Refsnyder
7 RF Abreu
8 2b Grissom
9 C Wong
 

simplicio

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From a human factor standpoint, I don't see them optioning or demoting Crawford to the pen. Dude just gave us 180 innings.
 

radsoxfan

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Barring a decent bargain offensive signing, I think the Red Sox should be spending almost entirely on pitching this offseason.

The offensive option aren't great, and we don't really know how things will shake out with the lineup honestly. The offense is OK now and we will get a ton more info about our prospects in the next 1-2 years.

Not as exciting as Soto, but I would try to diversify on pitching and assess any offensive holes after we get more info on the kids.
 

YTF

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From a human factor standpoint, I don't see them optioning or demoting Crawford to the pen. Dude just gave us 180 innings.
If they bring in two starters he may be the odd man out and first man up. Tough decisions will need to be made. He's a starter at this point and needs to be treated as such. Keeping him stretched out and taking his regular turn in the rotation may necessitate him going to WOOstah. It's a business and if we're serious as fans in wanting this team to get back into playoff contention then we should understand that not every decision might seem fair.
 

chrisfont9

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I was responding to a post about being happy with just going with the kids and foregoing high priced top tier free agent signings.

The kids will continue to arrive over the next few years, but the team will likely not be a serious contender until 2027 with a kids only strategy.
well they seem like they are trying to do something, maybe a lot. But they are focusing on a certain age window maybe? Or seeing if they can get the SP and extra RHH in that window, so the whole team is just loaded for a decade? It isn't literally kids-only, but if they can get Crochet they will pass on Eovaldi, etc. That's my guess.
 

Cassvt2023

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If they bring in two starters he may be the odd man out and first man up. Tough decisions will need to be made. He's a starter at this point and needs to be treated as such. Keeping him stretched out and taking his regular turn in the rotation may necessitate him going to WOOstah. It's a business and if we're serious as fans in wanting this team to get back into playoff contention then we should understand that not every decision might seem fair.
We don't we focus on adding ONE high end starter before we talk about adding two and demoting a guy who gave you 33 starts, 183 IP, 175 K's and a 1.12 WHIP.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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We don't we focus on adding ONE high end starter before we talk about adding two and demoting a guy who gave you 33 starts, 183 IP, 175 K's and a 1.12 WHIP.
Eh, he had a 5 ERA and 2+ HR rate after a great April. I think there’s reasons to be concerned about Crawford. That being said, you need a lot of pitchers to get through a season. Worrying about who is displaced in a hypothetical rotation before the season starts is pointless, will need them all.
 

Cassvt2023

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Eh, he had a 5 ERA and 2+ HR rate after a great April. I think there’s reasons to be concerned about Crawford. That being said, you need a lot of pitchers to get through a season. Worrying about who is displaced in a hypothetical rotation before the season starts is pointless, will need them all.
Fair enough, but I'm more saying lets get that first one. My guess is they have two avenues, and I'm not sure which one I prefer:

1). Sign Teo, which makes the OF crowded to the point that they'll trade for a SP that is a #1-2 type.

2). Sign Fried (or Burnes) and trade Yoshida and a lower level prospect, eat as much of that money as you have to, and find the RHH bat that can rotate thru DH, 1B, 3B with Raffy and Casas. I'm not sure who that is.
 

GB5

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If Bregman has an offer of 6/156 from Houston, I absolutely want no part of the Sox entering the level of bidding required to beat that. 7 years for Bregmam. Don’t walk away…instead RUN.
 

Cassvt2023

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If Bregman has an offer of 6/156 from Houston, I absolutely want no part of the Sox entering the level of bidding required to beat that. 7 years for Bregmam. Don’t walk away…instead RUN.
+1 to this. all. day. long.
 

YTF

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Fair enough. I'm just saying that you gotta land one before you land two. Walk before you run. Baby steps.
Do you prefer you PBO and his staff to be focused in just one direct or do you think they are capable mapping out multiple scenarios while being ready to act if the opportunity presents itself? They're capable for doing this with a draft and IMO should be prepared to do so here as it's a much more limited board to "draft" from and your turn is neither predetermined nor guaranteed.
 

LogansDad

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+1 emphatically.
If it were up to me, I’d have KC taking grounders at 3B right now.
And I’d be looking for a taker for a subsidized Yoshida.
This is essentially where I am at as well, except I also think KC should be shagging fly balls in LF, too.

I like Yoshida, and think he is a good hitter, but he just doesn't fit at all on this roster, unless they end up going the short deal for Carlos Santana (talked about in another thread, I think) and strictly platooning the two of them at DH.
 

RS2004foreever

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The thing about the options in this tread that appears clear is that the Red Sox have any number of ways to get good really, really, really fast. In some ways, starting pitching is the easiest problem of all to solve, and the Red Sox have a ton of moving parts to make a good positional group.
Sign one of the top 2 FA pitchers left and fortify the pen and even THAT probably makes you a 90 win team if Story is healthy.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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+1 to this. all. day. long.
I'd be okay with a 2 or 3 year deal if that's what we knew Bregman wanted, but it's unlikely. As I said, he "fits" better than Teoscar on the Sox and wouldn't push any prospects into trade scenarios to address pitching. But more than 3 years, ugh..... I don't know of any RHH DH/1B/3B types that could be had for some lower tier guys in a trade, and honestly it's not the biggest issue to me. Yoshida doesn't "fit" but I'd rather stick with him there and get Campbell hitting 3B and 1B all the time for a better cost efficient and long term solution.
 

LogansDad

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I also guess I am kind of talking myself into the idea of Teoscar as DH once the kids are ready, as opposed to blocking them, too. In that light, it makes a bit more sense to me, even if I still don't love it.
 

sean1562

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I’m happy to play the kids and sign a shitload of pitching.
This is what I want as well. Roman Anthony had a minor league season that resembles what guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez were doing before they were called up to the big leagues. I don't see the appeal of Hernandez when he could be the 4th OF by the middle of Spring Training. O'Neill was a better option than Santander, it would be foolish to not offer O'Neill a QO only to give Santander a bigger contract with his QO attached. Sign Fried, sign Flaherty, sign Carson Kelly, and maybe someone from the Jeff Hoffman tier of relief pitchers. I would check in on Ryan Helsey or Devin Williams as well.
 

dgello1971

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I feel some, not all, feel the Sox are so far away like the bottom feeders of the league. When in reality, with some smart tweaking and smart moves they are fine. The Sox' success since 2004 has clouded our yearly expectations.
 

fieldslikebuckner

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This is essentially where I am at as well, except I also think KC should be shagging fly balls in LF, too.

I like Yoshida, and think he is a good hitter, but he just doesn't fit at all on this roster, unless they end up going the short deal for Carlos Santana (talked about in another thread, I think) and strictly platooning the two of them at DH.
I'd have Marcelo Mayer taking ground balls at third as well.

And I can absolutely see KC starting in LF and Grissom starting at 2B to begin the season. It's not as exciting as signing Teoscar or Bregman, or whomever, but I'd rather see financial assets deployed to pitching right now, especially with all the young bats coming very soon.
 

nvalvo

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It's not as exciting as signing Teoscar or Bregman
I think it's much more exciting. Whose next six years do you think will be better in on-field value? Bregman's (age 31-36) or Campbell's (age 23-28)? I'd take Bregman for the next year or two, easy, but then? Is the difference worth $160m?

The two players actually had very similar minor league trajectories, in terms of age/level and performance. Pretty good age-21 season, and then rocketing up the levels at 22, with Bregman actually reaching Houston for a September call up in his age-22 season before taking over full time at 23.
 

YTF

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I'd have Marcelo Mayer taking ground balls at third as well.

And I can absolutely see KC starting in LF and Grissom starting at 2B to begin the season. It's not as exciting as signing Teoscar or Bregman, or whomever, but I'd rather see financial assets deployed to pitching right now, especially with all the young bats coming very soon.
It seems to me that when he was drafted there was some talk by the MLB Network talking heads that Mayer's long term future could be at 3rd.
 

sodenj5

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It seems to me that when he was drafted there was some talk by the MLB Network talking heads that Mayer's long term future could be at 3rd.
I think that was dependent on how he matured. He hasn’t really gotten too big to play there.

One can certainly wonder if playing 3B defensively helps him stay on the field, though.
 

fieldslikebuckner

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I think it's much more exciting. Whose next six years do you think will be better in on-field value? Bregman's (age 31-36) or Campbell's (age 23-28)? I'd take Bregman for the next year or two, easy, but then? Is the difference worth $160m?

The two players actually had very similar minor league trajectories, in terms of age/level and performance. Pretty good age-21 season, and then rocketing up the levels at 22, with Bregman actually reaching Houston for a September call up in his age-22 season before taking over full time at 23.
I wasn't clear. The "excitement" is the initial "hey, we have a shiny new toy!"

My preference is to skip the potential roster clogging FA signing and trust that one, or maybe both, of KC and Anthony are ready for OF duty this spring. It already feels like the Red Sox have one roster clogging player (Yoshida) that we'd like to get rid of. I'd hate to see the Sox add another.
 

radsoxfan

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If Bregman has an offer of 6/156 from Houston, I absolutely want no part of the Sox entering the level of bidding required to beat that. 7 years for Bregmam. Don’t walk away…instead RUN.
Ehh. I actually don’t mind Bregman in that range honestly. I’m on record as being all in on the pitching>hitting (and I still am) though Bregman has some flexibility and I wouldn’t mind him if he’s the 1 main offensive acquisition in that range.

Fangraphs has him crowdsourced at 6/162 and they tend to run low. I wouldn’t hate 7/175 (esp if some can be deferred). I think he should be in the 3-4 WAR range a good chunk of that deal. I think he can outperform 25M AAV for awhile.

As a thought experiment, would people prefer 7/175 for each of Bregman and Fried at 50M AAV total or Soto at 50M AAV for those same 7 years but then also needing to pay Soto 8/415 after that’s done?
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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Barring a decent bargain offensive signing, I think the Red Sox should be spending almost entirely on pitching this offseason.

The offensive option aren't great, and we don't really know how things will shake out with the lineup honestly. The offense is OK now and we will get a ton more info about our prospects in the next 1-2 years.

Not as exciting as Soto, but I would try to diversify on pitching and assess any offensive holes after we get more info on the kids.
I’m happy to play the kids and sign a shitload of pitching.
Yeah, Anthony and Campbell could be ceiling raisers as early as this season with two more prospects at or close to that level on the way in positions of need. Given the way they've operated recently, I don't think they're going to be in the business of blocking these guys barring a generational talent being available at their spot.

The successes of guys like Abreu and Duran have been the best parts of the recent seasons and I'm happy to run that back with even better prospects than they were. BUT you can't keep missing out on the high-level deals, mid-level deals, AND low-level deals. I understand not wanting to take the risk on long deals for 30+ pitchers, the track record there isn't great, but then don't go out and whiff on grabbing an Imanaga or Lugo or Eflin when they're available. Maybe Giolito would've been great, but we'll never know, and even if he was great he would've just opted out after a year anyway.

At some point they have to bite the bullet on spending on pitching, if they aren't going to develop it. With so much help on the horizon, now seems as good a time as any, and no, I don't mean loading up on more 1 year w/ option deals that will just leave us in the same spot next offseason. You just offered $45 million to one player, if you can't do some damage reallocating that many elsewhere across multiple talents that can help the team win, then I really don't know what the FO is even there for. Any idiot can sign low-risk 1-year deals and sit around waiting for the prospects to mature.

Get 2 guys and let Houck/Bello/Crawford be the solid group they are without any of them feeling the pressure to be the 1.
 

Cassvt2023

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I think it's much more exciting. Whose next six years do you think will be better in on-field value? Bregman's (age 31-36) or Campbell's (age 23-28)? I'd take Bregman for the next year or two, easy, but then? Is the difference worth $160m?

The two players actually had very similar minor league trajectories, in terms of age/level and performance. Pretty good age-21 season, and then rocketing up the levels at 22, with Bregman actually reaching Houston for a September call up in his age-22 season before taking over full time at 23.
Thanks for doing the legwork on this. I've been saying off and on for weeks/months (w/ the exception of the Soto-mania that I admittedly got wrapped up in) that instead of going out and overpaying for the declining years of Bregman or Teo, what, just what if the Red Sox actually have that bat already and in-house in Kristian Campbell. His rise thru the minors was remarkably Mookie-like, his hard hit and OBP were absolutely off the charts and he appears to have some positional flexibility. I'd rather make a smaller trade where we eat some of Yoshida's money and move him to open up DH to a rotating cast of Devers, Casas, Story, Romy, etc..
 

sodenj5

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At some point they have to bite the bullet on spending on pitching, if they aren't going to develop it. With so much help on the horizon, now seems as good a time as any, and no, I don't mean loading up on more 1 year w/ option deals that will just leave us in the same spot next offseason. You just offered $45 million to one player, if you can't do some damage reallocating that many elsewhere across multiple talents that can help the team win, then I really don't know what the FO is even there for. Any idiot can sign low-risk 1-year deals and sit around waiting for the prospects to mature.

Get 2 guys and let Houck/Bello/Crawford be the solid group they are without any of them feeling the pressure to be the 1.
It definitely feels like the focus on drafting positional players higher was a Chaim philosophy, as they carry less long-term injury risk. The upside is we have a bunch a near ML ready positional talent.

The downside is we haven’t developed a really good starter since Jon Lester.

Breslow drafted a bunch of pitchers this year but we’re years away from even potentially seeing any ROI there.
 

TomRicardo

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As a thought experiment, would people prefer 7/175 for each of Bregman and Fried at 50M AAV total or Soto at 50M AAV for those same 7 years but then also needing to pay Soto 8/415 after that’s done?
Soto. You always go with premium talent over multiple marginal upgrades. Bregman + Fried < Soto in value
 

ehaz

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I don't care about getting into a bidding war with the Dodgers and Yankees over Teoscar. The time to sign him to a reasonable deal was last offseason. Giving him 3/$75M or something would just be a desperation move.

I don't love Santander either.

For the RHH bat, need to find this year's version of O'Neill. Resources on pitching.
 

radsoxfan

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14,917
Soto. You always go with premium talent over multiple marginal upgrades. Bregman + Fried < Soto in value
At year 7 I (probably) agree… tho it’s less diversified and a down year/injury from Soto really sinks you.

But having to guarantee years 8-15 at 50M+ for a mid to late 30s DH makes this an easy call in favor of Fried/Bregman for me.