After Soto

OCD SS

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One way or another the Soto Sweepstakes is going to come to an end, and the Red Sox are going to have to pivot to the actual work they need to do. They still need to improve the pitching, and they also need to look at (other) possible improvements to the line up. These were the things they needed to do regardless of where Soto winds up.

1. If the Sox actaully land Soto, that probably presents options akin to winning the lottery, in that it's not something they really planned for when setting up the offseason. He gives them a (the) big bat, and even if he's not a RHH, it really doesn't matter. This potentially frees them up for more options in trade. If they land Soto, they almost certainly need to trade an OFer: Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder, Rafaella, + Anthony and Campbell coming up is pretty crowded, and it looks more like they'll need to make a deal to get a SP as it's probably harder to offer a big deal to Fried/ Burns in addition to paying Soto (but that assumes they'd make that deal anyway).

2. In the more likely scenario that they don't bring Soto to Boston, they still need to improve the pitching, especially the starting rotation. Again, it's a real question whether ownership is going to move off of it's "no long term deals for pitchers over 30" policy for either Fried or Burns. Both guys have some warts (Fried is not a strikeout, power pitcher and Burns has been looking at declining peripherals for 3 years) and the pitching market looks to be exploding, so $200M is probably a place to start. If the Sox aren't going to pay for pitching, the trade market is going to be a lot harder to deal with, since players they might trade are going to be impace bats they need.

Adding a RHH Ofer now looks possible in this case, but I would rather have had TO back than sign Teoscar Hernandez to a larger deal that costs a draft pick with him coming off a career year. Santander looks like the worst option of the 3 (and if the O's are moving on from him in favor of O'neil, I think that kind of tells us something - nevermind his projected fit for Fenway). The wild cards are the prospects, where either Anthony or Campbell can play the OF.

What do you think the plan is or should be for 2025.
 

chrisfont9

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I've never thought their position on pitchers over 30 was a hard no, just a lot of skepticism. Now the market has cornered them into picking one, and if they do it right, great. But the trade plan is part of it, because they need to limit the risk to ONE long term deal for a pitcher over 30. Their raft of cheap position players sets them up well -- and they will have this luxury for the rest of the decade. They are well positioned to do this but have to act decisively, this week.
 

jacklamabe65

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If Breslow starts to sit on his hands, I wonder if Theo might gently step in from a management perspective to "help" him in an advisory role. CB needs to be remind that Chaim was fired because of his reluctance to deal and sign and largely go with building the farm system as his main priority.
 

barclay

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Along with most everyone else, certainly a trade for a pitcher and signing one along with bullpen help and maybe a RH bat works for me. But here's a dark thought that is now forcing itself on me more and more and evokes the PTSD of previous years: despite their real intentions to spend, others may outbid them (case in point: Mets or Yanks after the Soto chase turn to Burnes, Fried, even Scott/Yates) while Chisox and other trade partners prefer other teams players to ours in, for example, a proposed Crochet trade -- and so on. Meaning we are left with scraps. Help. "Prepare to be disappointed" indeed.
 

chrisfont9

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If Breslow starts to sit on his hands, I wonder if Theo might gently step in from a management perspective to "help" him in an advisory role. CB needs to be remind that Chaim was fired because of his reluctance to deal and sign and largely go with building the farm system as his main priority.
Why would Breslow do this? Because he thinks we don't need anything?? None of the credible reporting supports this idea.
Along with most everyone else, certainly a trade for a pitcher and signing one along with bullpen help and maybe a RH bat works for me. But here's a dark thought that is now forcing itself on me more and more and evokes the PTSD of previous years: despite their real intentions to spend, others may outbid them (case in point: Mets or Yanks after the Soto chase turn to Burnes, Fried, even Scott/Yates) while Chisox and other trade partners prefer other teams players to ours in, for example, a proposed Crochet trade -- and so on. Meaning we are left with scraps. Help. "Prepare to be disappointed" indeed.
On the other hand, this is real. Way more teams are vying for top assets than 20 years ago. Nobody has to go to Boston. But we should have the money, prospects, and near-future competition window to compete.
 

OCD SS

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If Breslow starts to sit on his hands, I wonder if Theo might gently step in from a management perspective to "help" him in an advisory role. CB needs to be remind that Chaim was fired because of his reluctance to deal and sign and largely go with building the farm system as his main priority.
This would imply that it is Breslow not wanting to spend, as opposed to Ownership. I don't think that's the case.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Along with most everyone else, certainly a trade for a pitcher and signing one along with bullpen help and maybe a RH bat works for me. But here's a dark thought that is now forcing itself on me more and more and evokes the PTSD of previous years: despite their real intentions to spend, others may outbid them (case in point: Mets or Yanks after the Soto chase turn to Burnes, Fried, even Scott/Yates) while Chisox and other trade partners prefer other teams players to ours in, for example, a proposed Crochet trade -- and so on. Meaning we are left with scraps. Help. "Prepare to be disappointed" indeed.
I have a really hard time believing that no team has interest in Red Sox assets (be they young MLB players or prospects). I say that that way because if the Red Sox don't have exactly what, say, Chicago wants for Crochet, they certainly have the player capital to go out and get what the White Sox want and flip it to them. So maybe the White Sox don't want Abreu, but someone does and maybe they have what will pry Crochet loose. Trade creativity is a Theo specialty, so if Breslow is stumped, he has resources to help him figure it out.
 

The Gray Eagle

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This had better be the plan:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/12/08/sports/red-sox-max-fried-corbin-burnes/

According to multiple major league sources, the Red Sox recently met with the top two remaining free agent starters, righthander Corbin Burnes and lefthander Max Fried. The meeting with Burnes occurred remotely. It’s not known whether the team met with Fried in person or remotely.
Burnes, a 30-year-old who won the NL Cy Young with the Brewers in 2021, was 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 23 percent strikeout rate for the Orioles last year, finishing fifth in American League Cy Young voting. He’s a workhorse who ranks third in the big leagues in innings pitched since 2022.
Fried, also 30, went 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA and 23 percent strikeout rate in 29 starts for Atlanta last year. He did miss a few weeks in July due to an injured list stint for left forearm neuritis, but was strong down the stretch, with a 2.14 ERA, 36 strikeouts, and seven walks in 33 1/3 September innings.
Both Fried and Burnes have been reliably excellent for years. Since 2020, Fried has the lowest ERA in baseball (2.81), while Burnes (2.88) ranks second-lowest. For that reason, interest in both is widespread, particularly given that there are few other established front-of-the-rotation options.
 

SouthernBoSox

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One way or another the Soto Sweepstakes is going to come to an end, and the Red Sox are going to have to pivot to the actual work they need to do. They still need to improve the pitching, and they also need to look at (other) possible improvements to the line up. These were the things they needed to do regardless of where Soto winds up.

1. If the Sox actaully land Soto, that probably presents options akin to winning the lottery, in that it's not something they really planned for when setting up the offseason. He gives them a (the) big bat, and even if he's not a RHH, it really doesn't matter. This potentially frees them up for more options in trade. If they land Soto, they almost certainly need to trade an OFer: Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder, Rafaella, + Anthony and Campbell coming up is pretty crowded, and it looks more like they'll need to make a deal to get a SP as it's probably harder to offer a big deal to Fried/ Burns in addition to paying Soto (but that assumes they'd make that deal anyway).

2. In the more likely scenario that they don't bring Soto to Boston, they still need to improve the pitching, especially the starting rotation. Again, it's a real question whether ownership is going to move off of it's "no long term deals for pitchers over 30" policy for either Fried or Burns. Both guys have some warts (Fried is not a strikeout, power pitcher and Burns has been looking at declining peripherals for 3 years) and the pitching market looks to be exploding, so $200M is probably a place to start. If the Sox aren't going to pay for pitching, the trade market is going to be a lot harder to deal with, since players they might trade are going to be impace bats they need.

Adding a RHH Ofer now looks possible in this case, but I would rather have had TO back than sign Teoscar Hernandez to a larger deal that costs a draft pick with him coming off a career year. Santander looks like the worst option of the 3 (and if the O's are moving on from him in favor of O'neil, I think that kind of tells us something - nevermind his projected fit for Fenway). The wild cards are the prospects, where either Anthony or Campbell can play the OF.

What do you think the plan is or should be for 2025.
Thanks for posting. I have been thinking about this a lot. I think the worst case scenario, is pivoting to a Bregman type, reshuffling the infield, and trading a Casas. It would just tie up resources and would fail to upgrade the team in a meaningful way.

The non Soto path to improve the team is to add top level WAR to the pitching staff.

1. Sign Max Fried: 7/200m
2. Trade for Jared Jones: Abreu + (the + could be significant but I’d do it).
3. Trade for Seiya Suzuki: Really unsure of costs but he’s a perfect fit.
4. Sign Dave Robertson: 1 year deal

Go to war. The starting pitching is way way upgraded, the pen is looking good without long term commitments, the stage is set for Roman and Campbell, the lineup is more balanced, and your payroll is still in a very flexible spot.
 

YTF

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If Breslow starts to sit on his hands, I wonder if Theo might gently step in from a management perspective to "help" him in an advisory role. CB needs to be remind that Chaim was fired because of his reluctance to deal and sign and largely go with building the farm system as his main priority.
The winter meetings are literally hours old. The largest FA signing to date was not likely to come here.
 

barclay

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I have a really hard time believing that no team has interest in Red Sox assets (be they young MLB players or prospects). I say that that way because if the Red Sox don't have exactly what, say, Chicago wants for Crochet, they certainly have the player capital to go out and get what the White Sox want and flip it to them. So maybe the White Sox don't want Abreu, but someone does and maybe they have what will pry Crochet loose. Trade creativity is a Theo specialty, so if Breslow is stumped, he has resources to help him figure it out.
On the other hand, this is real. Way more teams are vying for top assets than 20 years ago. Nobody has to go to Boston. But we should have the money, prospects, and near-future competition window to compete.


I really hope you guys are right and to a certain extent mine was a "jinx" post. That said, and despite the fact that 2004 was the dream end to the curse and will never be forgotten (nor the three other WS), I harken back to 1975. I mean, Debbie Downer is my sister for God's sake. :D
 

YTF

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Thanks for posting. I have been thinking about this a lot. I think the worst case scenario, is pivoting to a Bregman type, reshuffling the infield, and trading a Casas. It would just tie up resources and would fail to upgrade the team in a meaningful way.

The non Soto path to improve the team is to add top level WAR to the pitching staff.

1. Sign Max Fried: 7/200m
2. Trade for Jared Jones: Abreu + (the + could be significant but I’d do it).
3. Trade for Seiya Suzuki: Really unsure of costs but he’s a perfect fit.
4. Sign Dave Robertson: 1 year deal

Go to war. The starting pitching is way way upgraded, the pen is looking good without long term commitments, the stage is set for Roman and Campbell, the lineup is more balanced, and your payroll is still in a very flexible spot.
I'm not totally opposed to this. I would like to see a pitcher more MLB tested than Jones, but his age, years of control and potential are certainly something that can't be ignored. I would also like to see Carson Kelly added to that list to round things out.
 

simplicio

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If you trade for Suzuki, what's the plan if Campbell and Anthony both prove to be ready quickly? (presuming Grissom is opening day 2B)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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How about we skip the Suzuki step and give one of them an opening day job?
Beacuse putting them on the 40/26 before we have to needlessly lessens the overall team depth and makes things more difficult in the event that they struggle (see Jackson Holliday) or if anyone gets injured?
 

SouthernBoSox

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Beacuse putting them on the 40/26 before we have to needlessly lessens the overall team depth and makes things more difficult in the event that they struggle (see Jackson Holliday) or if anyone gets injured?
Exactly, Suzuki is a proven hitter, adds a lot of contact, would look really good between Devers and Casas.

Gives them more flexibility with the rest of the roster.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Beacuse putting them on the 40/26 before we have to needlessly lessens the overall team depth and makes things more difficult in the event that they struggle (see Jackson Holliday) or if anyone gets injured?
They can plan on starting them Opening Day and not put them on the 40/26 until the day before. Gives them plenty of flexibility to change their minds if they don't perform during spring training. Of course, if that's plan A and they do struggle, what's the back-up?

I don't think they need to trade for someone like Suzuki or sign a "top" guy like Teoscar, but I also don't expect them to go entirely the internal route and count on Anthony and/or Campbell to be key pieces for 2025.
 

simplicio

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As long as Yoshida is on the roster I don't think it makes sense to acquire another bad fielding OF that's merely pretty good at hitting. The Cubs moved him out of the OF entirely mid August for a reason.
 

OCD SS

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I like Suzuki as a RHH OFer better than Santander or Teoscar. He is not a good defender, so the issue is can he switch over to LF in Fenway. He also allows for the Sox to mix and match, playing a defensive alignment with Rafaella & Duran covering the bulk of late defensive innings.
 

TheDogMan

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Along with most everyone else, certainly a trade for a pitcher and signing one along with bullpen help and maybe a RH bat works for me. But here's a dark thought that is now forcing itself on me more and more and evokes the PTSD of previous years: despite their real intentions to spend, others may outbid them (case in point: Mets or Yanks after the Soto chase turn to Burnes, Fried, even Scott/Yates) while Chisox and other trade partners prefer other teams players to ours in, for example, a proposed Crochet trade -- and so on. Meaning we are left with scraps. Help. "Prepare to be disappointed" indeed.
I have been thinking along the same lines. Looks like it is time to throw down or go home for the Sox.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Suzuki's career defensive stats in the OF are 0 DRS, 3.1 UZR, and -5 OAA. So he is more of an average outfielder than a bad one. He is almost certainly better than Yoshida and probably better than Teoscar.
 

EvilEmpire

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A below average OF is fine for Boston in LF. Obviously the best fit would be Soto, but Suzuki should be playable there for them. He's no Yoshida.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It sort of begs the question as to why the Cubs would trade him
Yeah. Seems to be what most trade wishcasting comes down to, doesn't it? Name a player you wish your team would trade for but never explain why it is that his current team would want to move him.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yeah. Seems to be what most trade wishcasting comes down to, doesn't it? Name a player you wish your team would trade for but never explain why it is that his current team would want to move him.
There are multiple reports the Cubs would look to move him to shed payroll.
 

EvilEmpire

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Yeah. Seems to be what most trade wishcasting comes down to, doesn't it? Name a player you wish your team would trade for but never explain why it is that his current team would want to move him.
I think the rumors coming out of Chicago about payroll make it a bit more reasonable than all the wishcasting around here about trading three dimes for quarter and getting a young pitcher from Seattle or Pittsburg.

But yeah, who knows if the those rumors are true. It's the silly season.
 

amfox1

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The Red Sox intend to pursue Teoscar Hernandez if they don’t sign Juan Soto, per source. Boston is believed to prefer Hernandez over Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays are also in the mix for Hernandez, though it appears they prefer the switch-hitting Santander.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Pretty sure I was the first to mention Seiya and it was based on the Joel Sherman report, I didn’t just scan a bunch of teams’ bb-ref pages and go “Hmm I wonder if we could persuade the Cubs to part with Seiya?” I wouldn’t trade him either if I were them!
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Technically, A-Rod and Manny were both free agents in the '00-'01 offseason, but it's a weird way to frame it in that the Red Sox didn't pursue A-Rod as far as anyone knew. I mean, they had Nomar, can you imagine trying to get A-Rod when you already had Nomar at short? That'd be super-awkward, am I right?
 

snowmanny

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Technically, A-Rod and Manny were both free agents in the '00-'01 offseason, but it's a weird way to frame it in that the Red Sox didn't pursue A-Rod as far as anyone knew. I mean, they had Nomar, can you imagine trying to get A-Rod when you already had Nomar at short? That'd be super-awkward, am I right?
Wasn’t it presumed the Mets and their deep pockets were sure to get ARod? Red Sox and Yankees had shortstops. edit - although one of them was bettah
 

Beomoose

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After extensive analysis I've come down on: Get pitchers now and keep a bag for Vladdy Jr next year.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I think it’s a fantastic sign the Sox made a big boy 700M offer. Cohen simply wasn’t going to be topped, and like it or not he has more resources than the Sox do.

I really would love to see them land Fried (whom I prefer over Burnes, but Burnes would do too). Then another arm — if you could land Crochet or Jared Jones or Woo for a package including Abreu/Crawford/two non-Big Five prospects that’d be ideal… if it takes Mayer I’d still consider it, but would also explore Flaherty or Eovaldi. And Hoffman…. and lets go.

I don’t think there’s a scenario where moving Yoshida is going to happen… though if the Cubs would consider Yoshida/Abreu/Crawford for Suzuki, I’d ring that bell too. Still lots of options.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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I didn’t want Bregman either but MLB Network said he’s the best hitter in Fenway.

.375/.490/.740 OPS: 1.240

7 HR/ 9 doubles in 80 AB. Gold glove.

Astors at 6/156 for Bregman. That seems like nothing A.S. (after Soto)
 

ShaneTrot

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How many free agents do we think they’ll finish 2nd on this year?
It will be reported by the same Boston media that loves Cora how close the Sox came.
I will be very annoyed if they trade prospects for pitching when they could have just bought pitching. Aces are out there, sign one.
 

OCD SS

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I didn’t want Bregman either but MLB Network said he’s the best hitter in Fenway.

.375/.490/.740 OPS: 1.240

7 HR/ 9 doubles in 80 AB. Gold glove.

Astors at 6/156 for Bregman. That seems like nothing A.S. (after Soto)
In 80 AB/ PA, over how many years, facing Sox pitching? This is the epitome of a stupid sportscaster sound bite idea.

His offense has been declining for 3 straight years, and we should sign him starting for his age 31 season?
 

chrisfont9

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It will be reported by the same Boston media that loves Cora how close the Sox came.
I will be very annoyed if they trade prospects for pitching when they could have just bought pitching. Aces are out there, sign one.
But the trade targets are younger. It's not the money, it's the concern about buying the decline. I do think they should buy one of the aces, but trade for more.