AFCCG: Pats at Chiefs Buildup

[JokersWildJIMED]

Every loss is "explainable" to a certain extent. Jax was truly their SB, got them at a horrible time early in the year in unbelievably hot weather. Det, had a ton of injuries on defense, no Jules or Gordon, and the Patricia factor. Tenn, injuries during the game to Brady, Allen, Cannon, and the Vrabel / Dion Lewis factor. Mia, major screw up by Brady at halftime, and fluke play to end the game. Pitt, difficult to overcome ridiculous amount of penalties, some legitimate, many questionable, especially the holds in the red zone. Certainly hoping that Mahomes plays his first bad game in two years on Sunday.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I re-watched the condensed Week 6 game and came away a little encouraged. For starters, Kareem Hunt absolutely murdered us in that game. Replacing him with Damien Williams is a big help. Williams has been great down the stretch but he's nowhere near the player that Hunt is. Not sure if Ware will be healthy but I would be glad to have KC mix him in. Secondly, Hill basically obliterated everything we tried. His speed really is amazing and I'm not sure I can remember a faster player on the field. Other teams have kept him under wraps so will be interesting to see if BB can find something in the film this week. On one of Hill's TD's in Week 6, he basically ran free over the middle of the field and then turned the jets on for the TD. Communication is paramount if you're using a committee approach on him. I may be tempted to just sick Gilmore on him with some safety help. Having Gilmore on Watkins just seems like a bit of a waste since Mahomes' primary reads will be Hill/Kelce on most plays.

 

[nolasoxfan]

Prognostications for gameday temps keep dropping. Now at high of 12/ low of 3 for Sunday. Winds out of the NNW at 8 MPH, according to Weather.com.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Last post from me about the weather.

May want to keep an eye on this blog as the week progresses: https://www.kctv5.com/weather/blog/

From today (Note - map is a projection of Friday-Saturday):

...I do feel comfortable talking about the Arctic Air that blasts into Kansas City Saturday afternoon.

Look at the map above again and notice the purple and pink coloring. Those colors represent bitterly cold, below-zero-degree air that will ooze into the region this weekend. This is our coldest air mass so far this Winter.

Highs this weekend will be in the teens and morning lows will likely dip below zero. And this frigid cold air mass may stick around into next week.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I think both of you are absolutely right. And I'd add that Mahomes is also deadly when getting out of the pocket and extending plays and that's a big concern for Cover 1 or Cover 0 coverage schemes - there's only so long you can expect one guy to hold up, especially once a downfield WR starts freelancing and moving in unpredictable ways to get open.

These are the things that I think probably give BB nightmares and make him particularly prone to favoring a much more conservative approach than we played against San Diego, all else equal. But if its -5 degrees and even a guy with the arm talent of Mahomes is having trouble gripping and spinning a football, how does that change the calculus?

It’s a fair question.

Strategically, nothing prevents Bill and Flores from testing a more aggressive approach early and seeing how Mahomes and the Chiefs offense handles it. If you give up a 70 yard TD doing so, then you can reassess.

It’s not like they’re rolling into this game under the impression that 13-20 points wins it. KC is gonna score some touchdowns, a game the Pats are competitive in won’t be in the teens. They should craft the defensive game plan on the necessary assumption that the Pats offense will move the ball and score touchdowns.

For that reason I would be fine if they thought outside of the box a bit given the elements. If I had to guess, I think Flores and BB dial up some aggressive calls out of conventional fronts to be used judiciously.

 

[RedOctober3829]

From the NWS branch in Kansas City.....

 

[RedOctober3829]

It’s a fair question.

Strategically, nothing prevents Bill and Flores from testing a more aggressive approach early and seeing how Mahomes and the Chiefs offense handles it. If you give up a 70 yard TD doing so, then you can reassess.

It’s not like they’re rolling into this game under the impression that 13-20 points wins it. KC is gonna score some touchdowns, a game the Pats are competitive in won’t be in the teens. They should craft the defensive game plan on the necessary assumption that the Pats offense will move the ball and score touchdowns.

For that reason I would be fine if they thought outside of the box a bit given the elements.

I said this on Sunday and I'll reiterate. I would blitz Mahomes as much as possible and that is me going against what the numbers tell me. Force him to make every throw under duress and see how he handles it. If they are able to replicate even close to what they did against LA, he will throw a couple balls up for grabs and it's up to the secondary to take advantage. If they are going to lose the game, lose by being aggressive as possible and try to force mistakes rather than sitting back in a zone and letting Mahomes find holes in a zone.

I'd even go as far as on some plays to line Trey Flowers and Hightower up inside while KVN and Wise(if healthy) playing outside end contain to help keep Mahomes in the pocket. Generate as much pressure up the middle as you can while the ends rushing as far as Mahomes goes back as to not lose contain.

 

[pvg44]

My main problem was with the board’s layout and lack of readability. Have you tried reading it on an iPhone? I think if I were a Chiefs fan I’d be using my laptop to gamethread.

So, what’s with the tomahawk chop? I would have thought that chant/rant would have been PC’d out of existence by now. I know, Atlanta Braves, FSU, but even the Cleveland Indians have gotten rid of Chief Yahoo.

I cannot stand that stupid chop. I cringe, but 48 years of no sex makes me put up with some things.

 

[pvg44]

To the questions about Ward, he is still pretty raw but improving with each game. The guy I linked to earlier has done a great job of breaking down his tendencies on film. He seems to be susceptible to biting on downfield routes. Underneath he has good technique.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I think both of you are absolutely right. And I'd add that Mahomes is also deadly when getting out of the pocket and extending plays and that's a big concern for Cover 1 or Cover 0 coverage schemes - there's only so long you can expect one guy to hold up, especially once a downfield WR starts freelancing and moving in unpredictable ways to get open.

These are the things that I think probably give BB nightmares and make him particularly prone to favoring a much more conservative approach than we played against San Diego, all else equal. But if its -5 degrees and even a guy with the arm talent of Mahomes is having trouble gripping and spinning a football, how does that change the calculus?

Apparently, Mahomes' hands are on the small side for an NFL quarterback, 9 1/4". That obviously hasn't hampered him so far, but maybe with a rock hard slick football it will. Oops, they'd better keep an eye on the pressure of the footballs. We'd want them to spec, not "soft". Oh no, not that again. Tom's hand size? Apparently the Pats have kept it hidden over the years, but Googling finds people saying they are very large to enormous (Scott Pioli for one said enormous). If he has large hands, why on earth would he have wanted deflated footballs?

 

[Super Nomario]

Not a pass per se. But I feel that had the Offense not been stymied (for whatever reason) like they were and scored what they are normally capable of for points of around 30. (28.1 Including these bad games). Then the D doesnt look as bad.
So IF they had scored on more drives (and not given the ball back or turned it over) then the Defense isnt put into so many bad situations, they dont give up 31/26/34 to the Jags Lions and Titans.
Instead if they give up 24/20/27 and the Offense does its job there is a good chance that they win 2 or more of those games.

I would lean towards this line of thinking more if the O had a bunch of turnovers (they didn't, just two in those three games) or if the D had tired late because the O wasn't scoring (it didn't - the D was awful from the start). The D could not stop Jacksonville, Detroit, or Tennessee (or, for that matter, Pittsburgh, though the D settled down and played well after initial struggles) early in those games and put the O in a big hole, one they couldn't climb out of because they were having issues on that side, too. And then you have the two games that were shootouts - Chicago and Miami - where the D played awful as well. And important to recognize - four of those five offenses were bottom-10 in scoring. Struggling with the Steelers or KC is one thing; struggling with the Jags, Titans, Lions, and Dolphins is something else.

I'd even go as far as on some plays to line Trey Flowers and Hightower up inside while KVN and Wise(if healthy) playing outside end contain to help keep Mahomes in the pocket. Generate as much pressure up the middle as you can while the ends rushing as far as Mahomes goes back as to not lose contain.

I think this is the key - can you put pressure on Mahomes while not blowing contain and letting him outside the pocket? Because if you let him extend outside the pocket, you're done. Blitzing him up the middle just to see him roll out and hit a 50-yard bomb isn't going to do any good.

 

[Dogman]

Apparently, Mahomes' hands are on the small side for an NFL quarterback, 9 1/4". That obviously hasn't hampered him so far, but maybe with a rock hard slick football it will. Oops, they'd better keep an eye on the pressure of the footballs. We'd want them to spec, not "soft". Oh no, not that again. Tom's hand size? Apparently the Pats have kept it hidden over the years, but Googling finds people saying they are very large to enormous (Scott Pioli for one said enormous). If he has large hands, why on earth would he have wanted deflated footballs?

Can you please do the board a favor and keep the posting in this thread about the AFCCG this weekend instead of your problems with the Chief's internet boards and deflated footballs?

Thanks.

 

[DJnVa]

From the NWS branch in Kansas City.....

To repeat, 15 degrees below zero.

 

[bakahump]

I would lean towards this line of thinking more...

Fair enough SN. Its a results oriented game...and their results certainly doesnt help my side of the argument.

 

[pvg44]

Chiefs released Ron Parker today (activating Duvernay-Tardif from the IR). So most of the secondary that played against NE in October -- Shaw and Parker at safety, Scandrick at CB -- are gone. It is a low bar, I admit, but the secondary is considerably better now. Sorensen and Jordan Lucas at safety (who knows about Berry, I doubt he'll play in this weather), and Ward & Fuller at CB represent a big upgrade. Also, Justin Houston didn't play in the NE game. Sutton likes to play man, which he would have to do anyway after what NE did to the Chargers last week.

 

[BlackJack]

To repeat, 15 degrees below zero.

That is completely insane. How low do you think the temp/wind chill would need to get before the NFL would consider suspending play? I don't think -15 does it mind you but quick googling on this sort of thing all says something along the lines of 'don't stay outside for more then 20-30 minutes'.

 

[InstaFace]

Since you were responding to me, to be clear, I agree with every word of this. Someone up-thread said something like "this feels like a game the Pats should win". I'm not nearly that confident, but I completely agree they are playing with house money at this point, and I wouldn't be surprised if they do win.

Yep was just using your post as a jumping-off point to describe how I'm feeling. Your hourly rate is lower than my therapist.

I've rarely had lower emotional stakes for a playoff game than I do for next Sunday. Maybe in 2006 (SD, then IND). By the time you get to the super bowl, the trophy is right there and it's impossible not to get worked up. There are times you feel the team is the best in the NFL and winning would be justice. But in earlier rounds, I guess it's easier to accept a loss, and harder to convince yourself that your team is a juggernaut.

 

[wiffleballhero]

That is completely insane. How low do you think the temp/wind chill would need to get before the NFL would consider suspending play? I don't think -15 does it mind you but quick googling on this sort of thing all says something along the lines of 'don't stay outside for more then 20-30 minutes'.

Yeah, but -15 is the wind chill factor.

Unless you are planning on going to the game and forgetting your shirt, it is a notoriously dubious scale.

 

[joe dokes]

That is completely insane. How low do you think the temp/wind chill would need to get before the NFL would consider suspending play? I don't think -15 does it mind you but quick googling on this sort of thing all says something along the lines of 'don't stay outside for more then 20-30 minutes'.

Wind chill is about exposed skin.
Temperature is a different story.

 

[Super Nomario]

Chiefs released Ron Parker today (activating Duvernay-Tardif from the IR). So most of the secondary that played against NE in October -- Shaw and Parker at safety, Scandrick at CB -- are gone. It is a low bar, I admit, but the secondary is considerably better now. Sorensen and Jordan Lucas at safety (who knows about Berry, I doubt he'll play in this weather), and Ward & Fuller at CB represent a big upgrade. Also, Justin Houston didn't play in the NE game. Sutton likes to play man, which he would have to do anyway after what NE did to the Chargers last week.

FWIW, Lucas (78 snaps), Fuller (74), and Steven Nelson (78) all played in Week 6, so the new guys are Sorenson, Ward, and Eric Murray instead of Parker (78), Scandrick (48), and Shaw (22). It looks like the Chiefs have been primarily playing dime the past couple weeks with all six of those DBs, whereas they went nickel for the most part in Week 6. It'll be interesting to see whether the Pats use some heavier looks as they did against LAC.

 

[Saints Rest]

6. Tyreek Hill is really, really scary. Do the Pats have anyone playing defense that fast?

MassLive surveyed some Pats last year, the consensus was Jonathan Jones who ran a 4.33 40 at the combine (he claims it was actually a 4.31).
And I can't find the link ATM, but on DMac's INT return, he was clocked as the fastest player carrying the ball in the NFL up to that time (I think by end of season he had slipped to 3rd). That could be a good double-team pairing.

Which bring us to Gilmore. Do they put Gilmore on Hill as the best on the best, as the Pats have mostly done this year? Or do they assume since no one can double Hill, then they should put Gilmore on Watkins to take him out one-on-one and double Hill? Or do they really mix it up and throw Gilmore on Kelce (the other "best")?

Part of me wonders if this is the time to pull the Super Bowl 36 defense out of mothballs or will the rules of today's NFL simply not allow that anymore?

 

[wiffleballhero]

This has me adequately anxious about the RPO:

https://www.patriots.com/video/belestrator-how-chiefs-can-ruin-this-game

Also, I know this is cross-posting from the other thread, but it seems sensible to have BB postgame breakdown from the first match-up here too:

https://www.patriots.com/video/belichick-breakdown-top-plays-against-the-chiefs

 

[Al Zarilla]

Can you please do the board a favor and keep the posting in this thread about the AFCCG this weekend instead of your problems with the Chief's internet boards and deflated footballs?

Thanks.

Got it.

 

[pvg44]

FWIW, Lucas (78 snaps), Fuller (74), and Steven Nelson (78) all played in Week 6, so the new guys are Sorenson, Ward, and Eric Murray instead of Parker (78), Scandrick (48), and Shaw (22). It looks like the Chiefs have been primarily playing dime the past couple weeks with all six of those DBs, whereas they went nickel for the most part in Week 6. It'll be interesting to see whether the Pats use some heavier looks as they did against LAC.

Good catch, thanks. Dorian O'Daniel is a player I also overlooked. He had 10 total defensive snaps in weeks 1-6, and 292 in weeks 7-16 (he was out for the Indy game). He almost plays a hybrid LB-Safety role and has more speed than either Hitchens or Ragland. If he is healthy -- big if given his ankle -- he could be on Gronk's pass routes.

 

[pappymojo]

Last post from me about the weather.

May want to keep an eye on this blog as the week progresses: https://www.kctv5.com/weather/blog/

From today (Note - map is a projection of Friday-Saturday):

Speaking of the weather, Sunday will be a Super Wolf Blood Moon Eclipse.

Spoiler

 

[CFB_Rules]

Blakeman is the Referee.

 

[PseuFighter]

Yeah, but -15 is the wind chill factor.

Unless you are planning on going to the game and forgetting your shirt, it is a notoriously dubious scale.

i will bring my shirt.

 

[ifmanis5]

Never tell me the odds...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/games/

 

[RedOctober3829]

This may be way outside the box, but is there a role for Obi Melifonwu this week? His athleticism/size combo could be used this week in some form or fashion.

 

[dcmissle]

That is completely insane. How low do you think the temp/wind chill would need to get before the NFL would consider suspending play? I don't think -15 does it mind you but quick googling on this sort of thing all says something along the lines of 'don't stay outside for more then 20-30 minutes'.

The Ice Bowl, Dec 31, 1967.

Temp was -15, wind chill -48.

They are not going to postpone the game.

On balance, I think these conditions favor the Pats.

 

[j44thor]

This may be way outside the box, but is there a role for Obi Melifonwu this week? His athleticism/size combo could be used this week in some form or fashion.

Doubt very much he makes his NE debut in the AFCCG. Perhaps if he was a ST contributor he'd get some snaps but that hasn't been the case.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Doubt very much he makes his NE debut in the AFCCG. Perhaps if he was a ST contributor he'd get some snaps but that hasn't been the case.

He played against the Vikings and Jets but not since.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

The Ice Bowl, Dec 31, 1967.

Temp was -15, wind chill -48.

They are not going to postpone the game.

On balance, I think these conditions favor the Pats.

Yep. In early 1982 the Chargers beat Miami in an OT game in the Orange Bowl famous for several players experiencing heat exhaustion.

The next week the Chargers played in Cincy with wind chills of like -40.

If the NFL hasn’t rescheduled a playoff game where a team experienced an effective temperature swing of 120 plus degrees within a week, hard to see it happening ever. And with respect to the fans, the league and host team has always taken a ‘proceed at your own risk/ keep babies and old people home’ approach. People aren’t actually getting frostbite or anything if they take proper precautions.

 

[Blue Monkey]

The Ice Bowl, Dec 31, 1967.

Temp was -15, wind chill -48.

They are not going to postpone the game.

On balance, I think these conditions favor the Pats.

This was also 1967, When men were men. Everybody is a giant trousercat now. Remember walking to school in 10 feet of snow? Not anymore Nancy.

Edit.. But I agree overall. They ain’t postponing this

 

[DJnVa]

Who’s Nancy and why doesn’t she like cold?

 

[Willie Clay's Big Play]

This was also 1967, When men were men. Everybody is giant trousercat now. Remember walking to school in 10 feet of snow? Not anymore Nancy.

Edit.. But I agree overall. They ain’t postponing this

Agreed the will not postpone the game. I would be interested to hear what the discussions regarding moving this game to the early Sunday game sound like. The networks, I would imagine, would not be pleased, but public safety (liability/optics) make things happen.

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article126468144.html

 

[Dogman]

This was also 1967, When men were men. Everybody is giant trousercat now. Remember walking to school in 10 feet of snow? Not anymore Nancy.

Edit.. But I agree overall. They ain’t postponing this

Not even close to clever. Be better than this. Be much better than this. Fast.

 

[simplyeric]

This guy says no correlation between offense and temperature:

Small sample size for games played in temps below 20F (I count something like 34). Why only 1 game below zero?

What I'd love to see is a correlation between temp. and passing stats, and in this case, especially the longer passes. I'm not really practiced at finding that kind of stuff, but I did find "Bad weather conditions increase the point difference of the Home team over the Away team" and

Helps home team score more points:
• Rain (Passing)
• Turf playing surface (Passing)
• Warmer Temperatures (Rushing),

based on, you know, a Lasso regression. This could be horse shit for all I know...it's quite literally Greek to me.

 

[simplyeric]

Wind chill is about exposed skin.
Temperature is a different story.

Well, and good coats...gotta have a fabric that doesn't allow a stiff wind to just push through it.

This isn't ski-gear weather, this is ice-fishing weather.

Agreed the will not postpone the game. I would be interested to hear what the discussions regarding moving this game to the early Sunday game sound like. The networks, I would imagine, would not be pleased, but public safety (liability/optics) make things happen.

I think if something like the cold snap of 1994 happened, they might postpone games? The truly extreme days of that event did not seem to coincide with any playoff games, but some states had declared a state of emergency during the week.

 

[Super Nomario]

This may be way outside the box, but is there a role for Obi Melifonwu this week? His athleticism/size combo could be used this week in some form or fashion.

I doubt it, but you never know. Certainly an intriguing body type / athleticism to match up with Kelce.

My pick for out of nowhere X factor would be Keion Crossen, though. He ran a 4.33 at his Pro Day and his other testing was nuts, too. He's been healthy all year and starting to show out on special teams lately. Physical, too. Won't be Plan A or B or maybe even C against Hill, but as a desperation play? I could see it.

 

[axx]

Agreed the will not postpone the game. I would be interested to hear what the discussions regarding moving this game to the early Sunday game sound like. The networks, I would imagine, would not be pleased, but public safety (liability/optics) make things happen.

They're not moving the time either. I imagine if you can afford to go to the game you can afford enough layers of clothing. It will subdue the crowd, maybe they will sell less beer.

Anyone go to the Ray Rice game? That was 20 at kickoff; wind chill of 8.

 

[Blue Monkey]

Not even close to clever. Be better than this. Be much better than this. Fast.

This is exactly what I’m talking about.

 

[BusRaker]

I'm not sure it would be a good precedent for the NFL to delay a game because of the cold. I mean, if you get too cold at the stadium, go to the concourse or a local bar or sit in your car and listen on the radio. It's not like lighting or something unexpected. And it could be as favoring warm weather / dome teams.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I doubt it, but you never know. Certainly an intriguing body type / athleticism to match up with Kelce.

My pick for out of nowhere X factor would be Keion Crossen, though. He ran a 4.33 at his Pro Day and his other testing was nuts, too. He's been healthy all year and starting to show out on special teams lately. Physical, too. Won't be Plan A or B or maybe even C against Hill, but as a desperation play? I could see it.

Obi could also be used as a safety blitzer as he can match Mahomes’ speed or as a spy.

 

[BaseballJones]

I have no idea if the frigid temps will help or hurt the Patriots or the Chiefs more. Or if it will help or hurt the offenses or defenses more. Here are the coldest games in NFL history and the outcomes:

Dec 22, 1990, at GB (2 degrees) - Lions 24, Packers 17
Jan 15, 1994, at Buf (0 degrees, -32 wind chill) - Buf 29, LA Raiders 23
Dec 26, 1993, at GB (0 degrees) - GB 26, LA Raiders 0
Dec 10, 1972, at Min (0 degrees, -18 wind chill) - GB 23, Min 7
Dec 3, 1972, at Min (-2 degrees, -26 wind chill) - Min 23, Chi 10
Jan 28, 2008, at GB (-4 degrees, -24 wind chill) - GB 31, Det 21
Jan 4, 1981, at Cle (-5 degrees) - Oak 14, Cle 12
Jan 7, 1996, at KC (-6 degrees) - KC 10, Ind 7
Jan 10, 1982, at Cin (-9 degrees, -59 wind chill) - Cin 27, SD 7
Dec 31, 1967, at GB (-13 degrees, -48 wind chill) - GB 21, Dal 17

So the average score of these games is 22.8 to 12.1. Scoring was lower in those days, but still, I would suspect that we could conclude that these would constitute lower-scoring games. So I'll suggest that the cold weather is going to hamper offenses and help defenses. I suspect it's just harder to grip the ball, throw the ball, kick the ball, and catch the ball, which are all offensive things. On D, all you really need to do is tackle and run and deflect the ball (not necessarily catch it).

So if the original line is 57.5, if the temps are going to be between 0 and 5 degrees, the play would be to take the under.

Now if that's so....which team does it help more - NE or KC? Both teams are in what we'd call cold weather locations, as KC absolutely has games as cold as Foxboro.

 

[Super Nomario]

Obi could also be used as a safety blitzer as he can match Mahomes’ speed or as a spy.

Mahomes ran a 4.80. He's dangerous outside the pocket, but mostly because of his ability to improvise throwing. They don't need an uber-athlete to spy him.

 

[djbayko]

Never tell me the odds...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/games/

I’m assuming this is based on their projection system? A couple more data points...

FootballOutsiders has it as:
KC 31.5%
NO 29%
NE 20.4%
LAR 19.1%

AFC - KC 59.9%
AFC - NE 40.1%

The betting markets have it as (rough average):
NO 33.24%
KC 26.12%
NE 20.77%
LAR 19.87%

AFC - KC 58.82%
AFC - NE 41.18%

So not a lot of variation outside of FO’s viewpoint on KC vs. NO.

 

[axx]

I have no idea if the frigid temps will help or hurt the Patriots or the Chiefs more. Or if it will help or hurt the offenses or defenses more. Here are the coldest games in NFL history and the outcomes:

That list is missing the 2015 Wild Card game (Seattle @ Minnesota, -6 with -25 windchill). That's the game that Blair Walsh missed the FG at the end.

 

[staz]

I'd like to think that at some point this week, maybe after a lackluster practice, Brady storms around the locker room getting in random guys' faces, yelling "YOU'RE AN UNDERDOG. NOBODY THINKS YOU CAN WIN," and "YOU'RE NOT GOOD ENOUGH," and "YOU'RE TOO SLOW.

A tough opponent, in front of 76,000 adversaries, in brutal playing conditions... it just doesn't get any more 'us against the world' than that.

And you know he loves this role.

 

[BaseballJones]

That list is missing the 2015 Wild Card game (Seattle @ Minnesota, -6 with -25 windchill). That's the game that Blair Walsh missed the FG at the end.

Yeah, maybe that list is old. Still...gotta believe that the intense cold favors the defense.