AFC Wild Card Weekend

Who'll win: Chargers (#6) at Bengals (#3)

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SeoulSoxFan

SeoulSoxFan

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A Scud Away from Hell
So far, we got Colts (10-6, 4th seed) at home vs. Chiefs (11-5, 5th seed).
 
Pats could also drop all the way to 4th by losing to Buffalo today with both Cincy & Indy winning.
 
Mystic Merlin

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Lose Remerswaal said:
Do they reseed for the next round?  Or do the Pats get the winner of SD/Cincy? (I think they reseed, so we can't get SD)
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Yep, they reseed, so they play CIN or the winner of KC/IND.  
 
Dan Murfman

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Lose Remerswaal said:
Do they reseed for the next round?  Or do the Pats get the winner of SD/Cincy? (I think they reseed, so we can't get SD)
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Cincy wins they play them. If SD wins they play winner of Indy/KC
 
lostjumper

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I'm going to be rooting hard for the chargers and colts. I think the colts are a pretty good match up for the Pats. Of course, Dalton absolutely sucked today, so the bengals might not be as worrisome as I originally thought.
 
alydar

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The last 4 QBs to beat the Patriots in the playoffs were Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco.  Andy Dalton fits right in with that group.  It isn't good QBs that have hurt the Patriots, but good defenses, especially since this is their best secondary in several years.  The Bengals smacked around the Patriots earlier this year.  I'm not saying the Colts or the Chiefs are an obviously easier opponent, just that the Devil we know (Bengals) might in fact be worse than the Devil we don't.  
 
FWIW I, In the TB/BB era in the playoffs, the Patriots are:*
6-3 if they beat the opponent in the regular season
3-4 if they lost to the opponent in the regular season
8-0 if they are playing a team for the first time (for those wondering, OAK 2001, PIT 2001, CAR 2003, PHI 2004, JAX 2005, SD 2006, JAX 2007, BAL 2011)
 
FWIW II, 2 of the 3 potential divisional opponents for the Broncos beat them this year, the Chargers (week 15 in Denver, 27 - 20) and Colts (week 7 in Indy, 39 - 33).  
 
* I looked this up myself and wouldn't be surprised if there's an error in here...
 
mauf

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I'm going to be rooting hard for the chargers and colts. I think the colts are a pretty good match up for the Pats. Of course, Dalton absolutely sucked today, so the bengals might not be as worrisome as I originally thought.


On paper, the Colts are the weakest of the Pats' three possible opponents (18th in weighted DVOA, 11th in overall DVOA -- the Bengals and Chiefs are in the top 10 by both measures).

Your rooting strategy makes sense, but don't get too invested in it -- the Bengals should be a double-digit favorite against the Chargers, so unless there's a huge upset, the Pats are looking at a rematch with Cincy in two weeks.
 
dbn

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alydar said:
The last 4 QBs to beat the Patriots in the playoffs were Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez, and Joe Flacco.  Andy Dalton fits right in with that group.  It isn't good QBs that have hurt the Patriots, but good defenses, especially since this is their best secondary in several years.  The Bengals smacked around the Patriots earlier this year.  I'm not saying the Colts or the Chiefs are an obviously easier opponent, just that the Devil we know (Bengals) might in fact be worse than the Devil we don't.  
 
FWIW I, In the TB/BB era in the playoffs, the Patriots are:*
6-3 if they beat the opponent in the regular season
3-4 if they lost to the opponent in the regular season
8-0 if they are playing a team for the first time (for those wondering, OAK 2001, PIT 2001, CAR 2003, PHI 2004, JAX 2005, SD 2006, JAX 2007, BAL 2011)
 
FWIW II, 2 of the 3 potential divisional opponents for the Broncos beat them this year, the Chargers (week 15 in Denver, 27 - 20) and Colts (week 7 in Indy, 39 - 33).  
 
* I looked this up myself and wouldn't be surprised if there's an error in here...
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I'm not sure how much it is worth, but fun numbers - thanks for looking them up.
 
Mystic Merlin

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Pats play at 8P on Sat., 1/11.  Little surprised Denver didn't get the primetime Saturday slot, although the late afternoon Sunday slot is a great ratings spot as well.
 
Corsi

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AFC WILD-CARD ROUND
 
SATURDAY, JAN. 4, AND SUNDAY, JAN. 5
 
No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts, Saturday Jan. 4 at 4:35 ET on NBC
 
No. 6 San Diego Chargers at No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday Jan. 5 at 1:05 ET on CBS
 
DJnVa

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Mystic Merlin said:
Pats play at 8P on Sat., 1/11.  Little surprised Denver didn't get the primetime Saturday slot, although the late afternoon Sunday slot is a great ratings spot as well.
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I missed this. I wonder why Denver isn't getting primetime.
 
alydar

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Record Against Playoff Teams
Bengals: 4 - 0
Chargers: 5 - 2
Colts: 4 - 2
Broncos: 3 - 3
Patriots: 2 - 2
Chiefs: 1 - 5
 
Edit: typo
 
jsinger121

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Mystic Merlin said:
Pats play at 8P on Sat., 1/11.  Little surprised Denver didn't get the primetime Saturday slot, although the late afternoon Sunday slot is a great ratings spot as well.
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This sucks...now I have to sell my Quinnipiac hockey tickets that night.
 
NortheasternPJ

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Mystic Merlin said:
Pats play at 8P on Sat., 1/11.  Little surprised Denver didn't get the primetime Saturday slot, although the late afternoon Sunday slot is a great ratings spot as well.
Click to expand...
 
is this confirmed? Source?
 
DJnVa

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jsinger121 said:
This sucks...now I have to sell my Quinnipiac hockey tickets that night.
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And my kid has a game at 9 that night. Of course.
 
B

bball831

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Wonder if Peyton in a potentially cold Denver night had the networks/NFL shift to Sunday afternoon. Setup the best chance for Brady vs Peyton the next week. Conspiracies! ;)
 
Hendu for Kutch

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Morning Woodhead said:
Kraft Manning worked his magic to not get the night game.
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Honestly, I was hoping Denver would get that night game.  The lower night temps might have been helpful in any upset bid for the visiting team.
 
Kliq

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San Diego is a very strange team. Their losses this season have been to Houston, Tennessee, Oakland, Washington, Miami, Denver and Cinncinati. Look at those first four teams, that is so alarming. On the other hand, they beat Denver, Kansas City and Philly on the road.
 
I think San Diego isn't getting enough credit going into Cinncinati. They can score with anyone, ended the season on a four game winning streak, and their defense has looked really nice, allowing only 17.6 ppg since December. Cincy is 7.5 point favorites, but I think I would take San Diego in this one.
 
Stitch01

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With the 7.5 I'd agree, but Bengals should win unless Dalton is as generous as he was today.

I Think Indy is dangerous, Wayne going down disrupted the offense but has come together since they swapped out Richardson for Brown as the starter and Luck and the other WRs have found a rhythm. I think they have a real chance to win in Denver or Foxboro.
 
Shelterdog

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Stitch01 said:
With the 7.5 I'd agree, but Bengals should win unless Dalton is as generous as he was today.

I Think Indy is dangerous, Wayne going down disrupted the offense but has come together since they swapped out Richardson for Brown as the starter and Luck and the other WRs have found a rhythm. I think they have a real chance to win in Denver or Foxboro.
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The Bengals have had a spate of injuries lately--anyone know the status of Eifert/Newman/Cook/Gresham/Zeitler?  It's hard to figure out whether these guys are seriously hurt or not.
 
DJnVa

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Kliq said:
 They (SD) can score with anyone,
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No, they can't.
 
Eleven teams scored more points than them. They outscored the Vikes by 5 and the Lions by by 1 (this is total points, not taking into account defensive/special teams) and the Cards, Steelers, Colts, and Panthers were in the neighborhood.
 
They're better than average, but not elite.
 
Euclis20

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DrewDawg said:
 
No, they can't.
 
Eleven teams scored more points than them. They outscored the Vikes by 5 and the Lions by by 1 (this is total points, not taking into account defensive/special teams) and the Cards, Steelers, Colts, and Panthers were in the neighborhood.
 
They're better than average, but not elite.
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Well, they did finish 3rd in offensive DVOA, only behind Denver and (by the slightest of margins) Philadelphia.  That's pretty elite.
 
Rudy's Curve

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Shelterdog said:
 
The Bengals have had a spate of injuries lately--anyone know the status of Eifert/Newman/Cook/Gresham/Zeitler?  It's hard to figure out whether these guys are seriously hurt or not.
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Cook is on crutches and didn't talk to the media yesterday, so we'll see if he practices.  I think Eifert and Gresham were held out as precautions.  The plan all along has been for Newman to come back this week and Zeitler has been back since Week 14.
 
B

bougrj1

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Looks like our old friend Zoltan signed with the Bengals... glad to see he got another chance.
 
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