AFC Playoffs into December

[dynomite]

This recalls the 1996-7 season, when we had the good fortune to face the Steelers in Scooby Doo-level fog in the divisional round, then had a weak (9-7) Jacksonville team shock the 13-3 Broncos to send the Jags to Foxboro for the AFC title game.

Or the 2007-8 playoffs, when the Jaguars upset the Steelers and then the Chargers upset the Colts despite the injuries to LDT and Rivers.

Those Jaguars and Chargers teams were actually really strong, but instead of facing Big Ben and prime Manning the Pats ended up facing David Garrard and a hugely hobbled Rivers playing on a torn ACL (and without LDT for almost the entire game).

 

[tims4wins]

Brockstar to start for Houston

 

[BaseballJones]

Or the 2007-8 playoffs, when the Jaguars upset the Steelers and then the Chargers upset the Colts despite the injuries to LDT and Rivers.

Those Jaguars and Chargers teams were actually really strong, but instead of facing Big Ben and prime Manning the Pats ended up facing David Garrard and a hugely hobbled Rivers playing on a torn ACL (and without LDT for almost the entire game).

I've had two kids (one in HS and one in college) tear their ACLs. Both very good athletes (not professional level obviously, but still). Watching them - even with excellent medical care - deal with this has been very tough to watch. I cannot imagine how these athletes PLAY with torn ACLs. That's unbelievable.

 

[InstaFace]

one roots for the possible, not the improbable.

Worked out OK in the 2013 ALCS.

Myself, I'll root for the possibility of not having to play PIT/KC in the AFCCG, even if that means facing a slightly tougher team to get there (MIA rather than HOU/OAK). If we can't beat Miami next week at home, after the display this past Sunday, we deserve every bit of shame coming to us.

I will accept full blame if this path results in Ndamukong Suh ripping Brady's right arm clean off his torso and then messily devouring it on the sidelines.

 

[Saints Rest]

Worked out OK in the 2013 ALCS.

Myself, I'll root for the possibility of not having to play PIT/KC in the AFCCG, even if that means facing a slightly tougher team to get there (MIA rather than HOU/OAK). If we can't beat Miami next week at home, after the display this past Sunday, we deserve every bit of shame coming to us.

I will accept full blame if this path results in Ndamukong Suh ripping Brady's right arm clean off his torso and then messily devouring it on the sidelines.

I had a flashback to Vince Wilfork devouring a turkey leg as player of the game the night of the Butt Fumble game.
(That's two Butt Fumble game references for me in the last hour and neither referred to Mark Sanchez.)

 

[fiskful of dollars]

Moved the betting posts to Fiskful of Dollars.

Hi.

 

[kenneycb]

Not sure where to put this but per ESPN, Connor Cook will be starting for the Raiders on Saturday. COOK VS. OSWEILER!!!!

 

[Gunfighter 09]

If we can get some sort of Connor Cook trophy presentation it will all be worth it.


Interesting that Cook is going to start his career playing against the NFL's #1 & #2 passing defenses. He is also the first rookie in NFL history to have his first career start in a playoff game.

Somehow, this feels like a bigger disappointment than the tuck rule season for the Raiders. At least that team could only blame itself for losing HFA by dropping their last three games while relatively healthy.

 

[Marciano490]

If we can get some sort of Connor Cook trophy presentation it will all be worth it.


Interesting that Cook is going to start his career playing against the NFL's #1 & #2 passing defenses. He is also the first rookie in NFL history to have his first career start in a playoff game.

Somehow, this feels like a bigger disappointment than the tuck rule season for the Raiders. At least that team could only blame itself for losing HFA by dropping their last three games while relatively healthy.

Is it that hopeless? You guys have a talented backfield, big, strong receivers who should make easy targets for a rookie, and a defense that can get up when it needs to and might really shine under the circumstances. I don't like your chances against the Pats on the road, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised by a win over any other team in the AFC.

 

[Stitch01]

Id be pretty shocked if they won in KC or Pitt.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Id be pretty shocked if they won in KC or Pitt.

I think Marciano is just trying to get back on Gun's good side...

 

[Marciano490]

I think Marciano is just trying to get back on Gun's good side...

I'm pulling him in for a hug with the lefthand, so I can nail him with a Rousey sucks uppercut with the right!

Jokes aside, and any given Sunday pablum aside, I like them against Houston and would take them and 5.5 points on the road against either Pitt or KC. I don't think they're totally without hope.

 

[Stitch01]

They'd be TD+ dogs to the Steelers.

 

[jp9183]

Well note to self waitlist is a waste of money. I assumed since they don't hold tickets for Friday's gen pop sale they'd be easy to get. Sold out in 5 minutes in the waitlist ticket sale heh

 

[Marciano490]

They'd be TD+ dogs to the Steelers.

Very likely, and I'll bet on them there.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Very likely, and I'll bet on them there.

We'll need to see a copy of your bet slip, mister. I wouldn't touch a rookie QB on the road. Don't you read Bill Simmons?!

 

[Marciano490]

We'll need to see a copy of your bet slip, mister. I wouldn't touch a rookie QB on the road. Don't you read Bill Simmons?!

Bill Simmons writes stuff? And I'll screenshot a copy. It won't be for more than 50 or 100, but I'll take that bet gladly.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Is it that hopeless? You guys have a talented backfield, big, strong receivers who should make easy targets for a rookie, and a defense that can get up when it needs to and might really shine under the circumstances. I don't like your chances against the Pats on the road, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised by a win over any other team in the AFC.

It all depends on what Connor Cook is. He looked like hot dogshit in the pre-season, despite throwing a ball that looks awfully pretty coming out of his hand, he just looked lost and not ready for the speed of the NFL game. Fast forward to last week, and despite a fumble and an awful interception on an overthrow, he looked competent. Expectations cant be that high though. As Derek Carr pointed out in an interview, #4 takes the Manning approach to practice and keeps 99% of the snaps to himself, so Cook hasn't had much run at all since August. It is hard to build the timing and anticipation that the Raiders offense requires in that situation.

I think the Texans -3 line for this weekend is about right. The Raiders can win if the defense plays well, Osweiller gives them the ball a couple time and Cook doesn't suck. I don't think they can beat the Pats, Steelers or KC on the road. I think they can win this weekend, but most of my disappointment is tied up in the fact that, with Carr playing at this level, I thought this was a team that could legitimately win the Super Bowl and re-framed my hopes and expectations around that belief. Now I just really want one win in the playoffs, which, actually, perfectly matches up with my August hopes and dreams.

 

[Marciano490]

It all depends on what Connor Cook is. He looked like hot dogshit in the pre-season, despite throwing a ball that looks awfully pretty coming out of his hand, he just looked lost and not ready for the speed of the NFL game. Fast forward to last week, and despite a fumble and an awful interception on an overthrow, he looked competent. Expectations cant be that high though. As Derek Carr pointed out in an interview, #4 takes the Manning approach to practice and keeps 99% of the snaps to himself, so Cook hasn't had much run at all since August. It is hard to build the timing and anticipation that the Raiders offense requires in that situation.

I think the Texans -3 line for this weekend is about right. The Raiders can win if the defense plays well, Osweiller gives them the ball a couple time and Cook doesn't suck. I don't think they can beat the Pats, Steelers or KC on the road. I think they can win this weekend, but most of my disappointment is tied up in the fact that, with Carr playing at this level, I thought this was a team that could legitimately win the Super Bowl and re-framed my hopes and expectations around that belief. Now I just really want one win in the playoffs, which, actually, perfectly matches up with my August hopes and dreams.

Is the Oakland backfield less formidable than I thought? I didn't see their one pretty darn good and two decent backs figure into your analysis at all. Plus, can't they slow down the game for Cook by having Cooper and Crabtree run shorter routes? They seem like they'd have the right size to get a few yards down the field and snag balls while walling off DBs with their frames.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

The Oakland backfield is quite good and diverse, I just don't know if they will be able to sustain the run in this game. In the November game against the Texans, they could not move big Vince out of the middle and had trouble running the ball on the Texans, rushing for 32 yards on 18 carries. The Raiders adjusted to this by throwing to running backs, taking advantage of the fact that Texans LBs McKinney and Cushing are not good at pass defense. Raiders' RBs were 11-11 for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving in that game. Connor Cook should be able to take advantage of that.

But that will only work if the Texans have to respect Cooper, Crab & Andre Holmes deep, which will require Cook to stand in the face of pressure and throw accurately. Whether or not he can do that will probably decide the game. He had a couple throws against Denver that showed he could (the TD to Cooper and a fourth quarter fly route to Crab on the right being the best examples) and he had a couple that demonstrated his toughness, but also the fact that his accuracy can wane under pressure. The interception that was thrown early and long past Mychal Rivera is probably the best example.

Before you commit some money that might better be spent on gym time or hanging out with your favorite super model, (as with all things Raiders related) you should always read/listen to Ted Nguyen before me:

https://raidersanalysis.wordpress.com/2017/01/04/film-room-connor-cook-learning-on-the-job/

This is the best review of Cook against Denver that you are going to see.

If you want to read an excellent review of what our favorite grumpy Newcastle fan / QB expert had to say about Cook in college, check this out:
http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2016-nfl-draft/2016/03/18/connor-cook-comfort-food/
http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2016-nfl-draft/2016/04/26/scouting-profile-connor-cook/

 

[Old Fart Tree]

If we can get some sort of Connor Cook trophy presentation it will all be worth it.


Interesting that Cook is going to start his career playing against the NFL's #1 & #2 passing defenses. He is also the first rookie in NFL history to have his first career start in a playoff game.

Somehow, this feels like a bigger disappointment than the tuck rule season for the Raiders. At least that team could only blame itself for losing HFA by dropping their last three games while relatively healthy.

I mean, at least there's no tape on cook? It would be an amazing story if he came out and won a playoff game in his first start. Or two for that matter.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I didn't realize it was this bad, but Justin Houston's knee apparently isn't responding well to his return. It's been sore, swollen, and he hasn't practiced in over two weeks. If he's not effective, Pitt leaps them in my "pee pee pants" playoff scale. I would still root for Pitt this week, though.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/32for32x170105/biggest-injury-questions-every-nfl-playoff-team

 

[CoolPapaLaSchelle]

I mean, at least there's no tape on cook? It would be an amazing story if he came out and won a playoff game in his first start. Or two for that matter.

At least we know it's possible for a rookie third string QB starting his first NFL game to beat Houston, right?

 

[staz]

Interesting factoid per Mike & Mike this morning:
The team with the top rated total defense (YPG allowed) has won home playoff games 8 times in the last 8 opportunities: 2015 DEN, 2014 SEA, 2013 SEA and 2008 PIT.

The 2016 top rated defense? Houston. (Among playoff teams, SEA is 2nd and NE 3rd.)

 

[tims4wins]

Texans have played in Foxboro 4 times ever. Combined score 150-49.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

So if the Dolphins upset the Steelers today then we get them next week. If not we get the Texans. Is that right?

 

[Gunfighter 09]

yes.

 

[Saints Rest]

In another thread, someone else noted that it's probably best for Pitt to win today. Pats get to play Texans next week. And hope that Pitt & KC beat each other up.

 

[dynomite]

In another thread, someone else noted that it's probably best for Pitt to win today. Pats get to play Texans next week. And hope that Pitt & KC beat each other up.

Does the "beat each other up" thing ever work?

In the 2010 Divisonal Round (when we didn't realize the Pats were about to lose to the Sanchize Jets... ugh) I remember watching the Steelers/Ravens game as those two teams destroyed each other and thinking "After this game I can't imagine either team being ready to play next week."

Then the Steelers came out against the Jets and were up 24-3 at halftime.

 

[tims4wins]

Does the "beat each other up" thing ever work?

In the 2010 Divisonal Round (when we didn't realize the Pats were about to lose to the Sanchize Jets... ugh) I remember watching the Steelers/Ravens game as those two teams destroyed each other and thinking "After this game I can't imagine either team being ready to play next week."

Then the Steelers came out against the Jets and were up 24-3 at halftime.

No, it doesn't. I am of the mentality that I want the best team eliminated. I want Pittsburgh to lose. I wanted the Seahawks to lose. Etc.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

I agree that the best option is for no Pittsburgh versus a possibly weakened Pittsburgh.

The ideal Pats path is Miami wins today and Houston beats KC next week.

You can argue that it is an unlikely scenario, but nothing says we can't root for it.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I agree that the best option is for no Pittsburgh versus a possibly weakened Pittsburgh.

The ideal Pats path is Miami wins today and Houston beats KC next week.

You can argue that it is an unlikely scenario, but nothing says we can't root for it.

And it's the playoffs - shit happens. How many of us thought Denver would lose at home to Indy 2 years ago? KC's offense isn't that good so I could see Houston keeping it close with their defense.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

No, it doesn't. I am of the mentality that I want the best team eliminated. I want Pittsburgh to lose. I wanted the Seahawks to lose. Etc.

This is where I'm at too.

I also think Pitt is a bit underrated by many metrics due to various injuries they suffered during the season to players that are now (reasonably) healthy.

 

[johnmd20]

I find this constant hypothesizing about potential matchups and the exhaustion of other teams to be a really ponderous exercise. The Giants played every weekend both of their SB years, and one of those championship games was a brutal, hard hitting overtime game. And the other year was the same, except the game was played in -20 degree wind chill. It doesn't matter, these guys are professionals.

For every player "beat up" there are plenty of other players who use those rough games to continue to stay in tip top shape. Let the matchups get set and then start figuring out the plan.

These conversations would probably drive Belichick to insanity.

 

[Oppo]

Miami and 90% chance KC
Houston and 50/50 Pit/KC

The Pats play Saturday night, so scenario 1 would allow them to start preparing for KC 12 hours earlier vs waiting to see who wins between Pit/KC in scenario 2. Is this significant? Probably not.