AFC Playoff Watch: The Quest for the #1 seed

[dcmissle]

SD, KC, HOU, and NE are all in the hunt for the bye (SD would have to win Division). Houston has the easiest schedule of the 4. This has the makings for a great horse race. None of the current 1-6 seeds in the AFC are soft. Even Baltimore has a good defense. Side note: has anyone seen Lamar Jackson this year - how did he look?

Good enough that Flacco may not see the field again in Baltimore, with caveat for the bell ringing, which could conceivably force Harbaugh’s hand.

About what you would expect and hope for in year 1. Barely adequate as a passer, dangerous as a runner. Productive and improving. Combine with good defense and ST, and you have something. Still wish the Pats drafted him.

They are only a half game out in div race but overcoming Steelers will be hard with games at KC and LAC.

 

[tims4wins]

Ghastly loss for the Colts yesterday.

Given that Baltimore has @ KC and @ LAC left, I predict the six seed comes from the group of Miami, Denver, Indy, and Tennessee.

Edit: H2H wins vs Denver and Tennessee may be huge though

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

SD, KC, HOU, and NE are all in the hunt for the bye (SD would have to win Division). Houston has the easiest schedule of the 4. This has the makings for a great horse race. None of the current 1-6 seeds in the AFC are soft. Even Baltimore has a good defense. Side note: has anyone seen Lamar Jackson this year - how did he look?

LJ is pretty interesting to watch. BAL is basically running a college offense but has done so v 32, 31, and 25 ranked defenses (or something close to that). He is passing well enough to keep teams honest but BAL is killing teams on the ground. ATL ran something like 44 plays, which is insane in this era.

Fun fact: in his first two games, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, LJ has "19 rushes over the past two weeks in which he has reached speeds of at least 15 miles per hour. That's nine more than the next closest players, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara." http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/47521/how-fast-is-lamar-jackson-its-like-trying-to-catch-roadrunner

He's rushed something like 50 times (excluding kneel downs) over 3 games. Since Harbs is definitely going to get fired if he doesn't make the playoffs, I guess they're just going to keep this up but like RG3, if one time he zigs when he should have zagged and a LB or DL catches up to him, well its Flacco time again.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

LJ is pretty interesting to watch. BAL is basically running a college offense but has done so v 32, 31, and 25 ranked defenses (or something close to that). He is passing well enough to keep teams honest but BAL is killing teams on the ground. ATL ran something like 44 plays, which is insane in this era.

Fun fact: in his first two games, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, LJ has "19 rushes over the past two weeks in which he has reached speeds of at least 15 miles per hour. That's nine more than the next closest players, Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara." http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/47521/how-fast-is-lamar-jackson-its-like-trying-to-catch-roadrunner

He's rushed something like 50 times (excluding kneel downs) over 3 games. Since Harbs is definitely going to get fired if he doesn't make the playoffs, I guess they're just going to keep this up but like RG3, if one time he zigs when he should have zagged and a LB or DL catches up to him, well its Flacco time again.

Yeah, I know his arm isn't great, but with a defense that can hold the Pat's to under 24 points, and a mobile QB, this team could give the Patriots fits in the playoffs. Have no interest in matching up with them.

 

[tims4wins]

If it is a 3 way tie between NE, KC, and HOU at 13-3, the Pats get the 1 seed, but who is the 2 seed?

 

[wilked]

Gotta love the fight from the Chargers...

If you allow yourself to grant them a win in two weeks vs the Chiefs...even odds on who wins the division

 

[wilked]

If it is a 3 way tie between NE, KC, and HOU at 13-3, the Pats get the 1 seed, but who is the 2 seed?

Easiest way is to use this
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[NortheasternPJ]

If it is a 3 way tie between NE, KC, and HOU at 13-3, the Pats get the 1 seed, but who is the 2 seed?

Using the Playoff Machine if the KC loses to the Seahawks and beats the Chargers
1-Pats
2-KC
3-Houston

If Pats, Chargers & Texans all win out and KC loses only to the Chargers:

1-Pats
2-Houston
3-KC

There could be other scenarios where this changes based on SoS but that's how it worked out on how I did it. The real issue is if it's a 3 way tie between Chargers, Houston and New England as the Pats could lose that on common games, but the Chiefs have to drop 2 for that to happen and New England ends up in the 2 seed with Houston as the #1

Would the Chargers at 13-3 have the worst seeding for 13 win team? i'll go see if i can find out.

Edit looks they would be. Best record for a 5 seed:

2001 San Francisco 49ers 12-4
2003 Tennessee Titans 12-4
2005 Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4
2008 Indianapolis Colts 12-4
2010 Baltimore Ravens 12-4
2011 Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4
2013 San Francisco 49ers 12-4
2016 Oakland Raiders 12-4

There's also only been one 13-3 #4 seed, the 1999 Titans.

 

[tims4wins]

Thanks

 

[tims4wins]

Looks like in unlikely event of 3 way tie at 13-3 between Pats Houston and Chargers with KC at 12-4 then Houston is actually the one seed, Pats 2, Chargers 3

 

[DJnVa]

. Side note: has anyone seen Lamar Jackson this year - how did he look?

He's started the last 3 games---you haven't seen him? Come on brother!

 

[BaseballJones]

Top 5 teams

1. KC (10-2): vs Bal, vs LAC, at Sea, vs Oak
2. NE (9-3): at Mia, at Pit, vs Buf, vs NYJ
3. Hou (9-3): vs Ind, at NYJ, at Phi, vs Jax
4. Pit (7-4-1): at Oak, vs NE, at NO, vs Cin
5. LAC (9-3): vs Cin, at KC, vs Bal, at Den

I think KC has three difficult games, even though two of them are at home. Jackson will give them fits and the Ravens' D is one of the few that probably can hold KC a little bit in check, especially without Hunt. The Chargers are obviously on a major roll. And playing at Seattle, with the Seahawks playing well, is no picnic. They could possibly lose two of those games, but most likely, one.

NE has, on paper, a reasonable schedule. They should win 3 of the 4. But I'll get back to them in a moment.

Houston has a pretty nice schedule, unless Indy has a great game or Philly shows up in a desperation game in week 16. But I figure they probably should go 3-1 or 4-0.

Pittsburgh has two tough games: home vs NE and at New Orleans. They could go 3-1 or 2-2. If everything stayed as is, and the Pats went 3-1 and Pit went 4-0, beating NE, they'd finish at 12-4 for NE and 11-4-1 for Pit, which would still give the tiebreaker between them to NE. So Pit is in a tough spot there...they need NE to lose to Miami this week, really.

The Chargers are rolling but they have three tough games left. At KC, home vs Baltimore, and at Denver won't be easy either. I see them finishing 11-5 or 12-4.

Bottom line for the Patriots, IMO: They need to win out in order to secure a bye, but if they win out, I think they end up with the #1 seed, because I think KC is losing one more game this year. But if the Pats don't win out, they could drop to the 3 seed and possibly have to play Baltimore at home on WC weekend, and then travel to Houston. Yikes, that would be significantly more difficult than getting the #1 seed, getting a first round bye, then playing the worst remaining seed (which might not be easy), and then playing the AFCCG at home (if they win that first game).

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Top 5 teams

1. KC (10-2): vs Bal, vs LAC, at Sea, vs Oak
2. NE (9-3): at Mia, at Pit, vs Buf, vs NYJ
3. Hou (9-3): vs Ind, at NYJ, at Phi, vs Jax
4. Pit (7-4-1): at Oak, vs NE, at NO, vs Cin
5. LAC (9-3): vs Cin, at KC, vs Bal, at Den

I think KC has three difficult games, even though two of them are at home. Jackson will give them fits and the Ravens' D is one of the few that probably can hold KC a little bit in check, especially without Hunt. The Chargers are obviously on a major roll. And playing at Seattle, with the Seahawks playing well, is no picnic. They could possibly lose two of those games, but most likely, one.

NE has, on paper, a reasonable schedule. They should win 3 of the 4. But I'll get back to them in a moment.

Houston has a pretty nice schedule, unless Indy has a great game or Philly shows up in a desperation game in week 16. But I figure they probably should go 3-1 or 4-0.

Pittsburgh has two tough games: home vs NE and at New Orleans. They could go 3-1 or 2-2. If everything stayed as is, and the Pats went 3-1 and Pit went 4-0, beating NE, they'd finish at 12-4 for NE and 11-4-1 for Pit, which would still give the tiebreaker between them to NE. So Pit is in a tough spot there...they need NE to lose to Miami this week, really.

The Chargers are rolling but they have three tough games left. At KC, home vs Baltimore, and at Denver won't be easy either. I see them finishing 11-5 or 12-4.

Bottom line for the Patriots, IMO: They need to win out in order to secure a bye, but if they win out, I think they end up with the #1 seed, because I think KC is losing one more game this year. But if the Pats don't win out, they could drop to the 3 seed and possibly have to play Baltimore at home on WC weekend, and then travel to Houston. Yikes, that would be significantly more difficult than getting the #1 seed, getting a first round bye, then playing the worst remaining seed (which might not be easy), and then playing the AFCCG at home (if they win that first game).

A 12-4 team isn't tied with an 11-4-1 team.

The Patriots at 12-4 would only miss a bye if Houston wins out and one of:

1. KC goes 4-0 or 3-1
2. Chargers win out

 

[BaseballJones]

A 12-4 team isn't tied with an 11-4-1 team.

Yes, well, of course.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I think KC has three difficult games, even though two of them are at home. Jackson will give them fits and the Ravens' D is one of the few that probably can hold KC a little bit in check, especially without Hunt. The Chargers are obviously on a major roll. And playing at Seattle, with the Seahawks playing well, is no picnic. They could possibly lose two of those games, but most likely, one.

I'm really interested how Mahomes handles cold weather and if he's effective. With it being KC that could be at home or at New England in January.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Too bad Houston has won so many close games during their win streak. Just dropping one of those would have been a major help and the Pats would be sitting pretty right now for at least the 2 seed. As it stands now, I expect the Pats to split the next 2 road games. Two wins wouldn't surprise me but they haven't been a very good road team so I expect a loss in one of them. And then they take out the AFCE trash the last 2 weeks of the year to finish at 12-4. I expect the Chiefs to lose one of their final 4 and finish at 13-3. Pit probably loses in New Orleans so even if they beat the Pats, it'll be tough for them to get a bye after last night's L.

The 1 seed would be great but I'd settle for the 2 and a bye. The Divisional Round is going to be a huge challenge either way. No Titans level scrubs this year. If they slip and lose out on the bye, the path to Atlanta gets much, much tougher. This week's game against Miami is huge. Win it and you're in good shape. Lose it and you're up against a wall and likely needing to win in Heinz Field to preserve the chance of a bye.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Nevermind.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Too bad Houston has won so many close games during their win streak. Just dropping one of those would have been a major help and the Pats would be sitting pretty right now for at least the 2 seed. As it stands now, I expect the Pats to split the next 2 road games. Two wins wouldn't surprise me but they haven't been a very good road team so I expect a loss in one of them. And then they take out the AFCE trash the last 2 weeks of the year to finish at 12-4. I expect the Chiefs to lose one of their final 4 and finish at 13-3. Pit probably loses in New Orleans so even if they beat the Pats, it'll be tough for them to get a bye after last night's L.

The 1 seed would be great but I'd settle for the 2 and a bye. The Divisional Round is going to be a huge challenge either way. No Titans level scrubs this year. If they slip and lose out on the bye, the path to Atlanta gets much, much tougher. This week's game against Miami is huge. Win it and you're in good shape. Lose it and you're up against a wall and likely needing to win in Heinz Field to preserve the chance of a bye.

Pittsburgh can't get to 12 wins even if they win out. To get a bye, they need only 1 division winner to wind up at 12 wins or better, which means 2 out of NE, HOU & the KC/LAC winner losing 2 out of 4 (3 out of 4 for KC).

 

[SMU_Sox]

He's started the last 3 games---you haven't seen him? Come on brother!

I am a bad father not watching my son. I will most likely catch up on his film in the off-season. I will ask Mark if he is doing a rookie QB review as well sometime after the year is over. I'm stuck in 2019 draft film... and that's a good thing. I've seen enough WRs and TEs that are great fits on the Pats and it's December. Much deeper class this year IMO. All classes are different of course but I am already excited about the Pats having 6 picks in the top 100.

Thank you guys for the responses re: Lamar Jackson.

 

[ObstructedView]

Looks like in unlikely event of 3 way tie at 13-3 between Pats Houston and Chargers with KC at 12-4 then Houston is actually the one seed, Pats 2, Chargers 3

True, thanks to the bizarre tiebreaker rule which places more emphasis on winning percentage vs common opponents than on head-to-head. So NE could lose out on the top seed to another 13-win team that it beat. Sure hope that scenario doesn't come to fruition.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

True, thanks to the bizarre tiebreaker rule which places more emphasis on winning percentage vs common opponents than on head-to-head. So NE could lose out on the top seed to another 13-win team that it beat. Sure hope that scenario doesn't come to fruition.

What do you mean? Head-to-head comes first, but since none of the teams played both of the others (Chargers didn't play either one), it doesn't count. Do you want head-to-head to eliminate the Texans from the three-way tie, then proceed to a two-way between LA & NE?

 

[ObstructedView]

What do you mean? Head-to-head comes first, but since none of the teams played both of the others (Chargers didn't play either one), it doesn't count. Do you want head-to-head to eliminate the Texans from the three-way tie, then proceed to a two-way between LA & NE?

Yeah, I guess I blanked on the fact that you'd be breaking a THREE-way tie and have to account for LAC. Still seems wrong to finish behind a team you've beaten head-to-head, but I guess that's the only logical way to do it.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Everyone is due for one of those annoying bad losses that makes no sense.

The playoff picture will have some twists methinks.

 

[tims4wins]

Everyone is due for one of those annoying bad losses that makes no sense.

The playoff picture will have some twists methinks.

I wouldn't say everyone is due

 

[brandonchristensen]

I wouldn't say everyone is due

Jesus Christ, I just ate.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

I wouldn't say everyone is due

[/

This is funny because the Steelers just lost a game (to the Chargers) that they were winning by so much that their loss made no sense and so they are not "due."

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Well played, ERR.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

This is funny because the Steelers just lost a game (to the Chargers) that they were winning by so much that their loss made no sense and so they are not "due."

I think they came due when they tied the Browns.

 

[tims4wins]

Well played, ERR.

Ditto that

 

[j-man]

my 02 cents
If NE wins sunday they get a bye KC will most likey lose at sea hou shouild win out balt wins the north at 10-6 LAC is the 5 den shouild be 6 the only q is this

1 KC/NE
2 NE/KC/HOU
3 HOU/NE
4 BALT/PITT
5 LAC
6 BALT/DEN/PITT

denver can beat anyone in the afc but NE

 

[snowmanny]

my 02 cents
If NE wins sunday they get a bye KC will most likey lose at sea hou should win out balt wins the north at 10-6 LAC is the 5 den shouild be 6 the only q is this

1 KC/NE
2 NE/KC/HOU
3 HOU/NE
4 BALT/PITT
5 LAC
6 BALT/DEN/PITT

denver can beat anyone in the afc but NE

Houston will be underdogs - and should be - at Eagles. To go 10-6 Ravens would have to win at Chiefs or Chargers and also win two other games. I don't think either team has it in them but we will see.

 

[DJnVa]

You know what annoys me? Stories like "Patriots are much at home than on the road, playoff seeding is paramount". No kidding.

Perhaps tomorrow we'll see a story saying that since the Steelers are only 3-3 at home, maybe they should try to get the #3 seed.

 

[eustis22]

I think it's too much wishful thinking to count on Seattle or Baltimore to do the Pats dirty work. Trusting Harbaugh or Carroll is like trusting Mike McCarthy.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I think it's too much wishful thinking to count on Seattle or Baltimore to do the Pats dirty work. Trusting Harbaugh or Carroll is like trusting Mike McCarthy.

Respectfully disagree. Carroll? I mean everyone and their mother thought Seattle was going to have a losing record and not be competitive this year. If anything I trust Carroll more based on what he has done with this year's squad. I wouldn't trust Pete when discussing politics but that's about it. No coach is perfect. Carroll has been damn good the past decade and before that at USC.

Edit: original post was a little grouchy towards eustis.

 

[dcmissle]

Carroll has coached his ass off this year. Harbaugh is solid.

Look, Baltimore has a big problem with those road games. It may be formidable next season, but QB really is a WiP and this year may be a bridge too far.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think it's too much wishful thinking to count on Seattle or Baltimore to do the Pats dirty work. Trusting Harbaugh or Carroll is like trusting Mike McCarthy.

You're not trusting Harbs; you're putting your trust in Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens are averaging over 37 minutes TOP since Lamar started. Quickly going through TOP rankings since 2003, that would be #1 by a wide margin.

I think the Ravens had one play over 20 yards last week. Kind of fun to watch 1970s football again.

 

[BaseballJones]

You're not trusting Harbs; you're putting your trust in Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens are averaging over 37 minutes TOP since Lamar started. Quickly going through TOP rankings since 2003, that would be #1 by a wide margin.

I think the Ravens had one play over 20 yards last week. Kind of fun to watch 1970s football again.

Speaking of 1970s football.... In the two weeks since the insane KC-LAR Madden game, NFL teams have averaged 15.6 points per game. Defense is back, baby!

 

[54thMA]

It may be formidable next season, but QB really is a WiP and this year may be a bridge too far.

Are the Ravens going to run into the 9th and 10th SS Panzer Divisions too?

 

[InstaFace]

We can but hope.

 

[j-man]

with sanders ACL tear today it takes denver out and likely locks Balt/pitt into the 6th spot

 

[j-man]

Houston will be underdogs - and should be - at Eagles. To go 10-6 Ravens would have to win at Chiefs or Chargers and also win two other games. I don't think either team has it in them but we will see.

the eagles will likely lose to the rams and that will be crushing

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

the eagles will likely lose to the rams and that will be crushing

The Eagles are currently 1 game back of their division, and play the leader, the Cowboys, this weekend. If they win that game, they'll be tied and leading the tie-breaker (division record). You're saying that if they lose against the Rams to fall 1 game back (with the tie-breaker in their back pocket), they'll give up on the season?

 

[BaseballJones]

With like 45 seconds left in their respective games, the Pats had a 99% chance of winning, and KC was losing by a touchdown.

Then....

NE loses on the ridiculous play, and KC manages to come back and win in OT. Locking up (virtually) the #1 seed for KC. Ugh.

1. KC 11-2
2. NE 9-4
3. Hou 9-4
4. Pit 7-4-1 (likely will win today vs Oak)

So the Pats basically need to win their last 3 to ensure the #2 seed. I'd like to think they won't lose at home vs Buf and NYJ (but who knows), so next week's game is pretty much everything.

BTW, if they end up the #2 seed, I'm not at all ruling out KC losing in the divisional round at home. They've won without Hunt, but they're beatable.

 

[shawnrbu]

The 1 seed isn't a realistic option after today.

What % chance are the Pats currently to get the 2 seed? What would that % have been with a W today and all other results the same? The difference is what hurts so much about today's defeat.

 

[tims4wins]

I saw earlier today that the game would have like a 35% swing. Something like 49% vs 84%. But I bet it is higher than 49% due to the Houston loss, which wasn’t particularly likely.

 

[Ale Xander]

Apologies if this has been asked, but what happens between, for example, 9-5-2 team and a 10-6 team. Is it a tie (go to tiebreakers), or does the 9-5-2 team win by virtue of higher ratio of W/L?

 

[tims4wins]

More wins higher finish

 

[LesterFan]

I think the Pats are a safe bet for the #2 seed, even if they lose next week. I think the Steelers lose @NO and Texans lose @PHI, and Pats win their final 2 home games. Obviously I'd prefer to win out and control our destiny.

 

[wilked]

Getting the 1 seed is nice. Getting a bye is crucial. One fewer game played is massive. Losing out on the one seed, I’m not losing too much sleep over that. But they need that bye

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

More wins higher finish

I believe then it would go to the tiebreakers. 2 ties equals 1 win.