Lose to JAX and MIA.
If they beat JAX, it’ll take some unlikely stars aligning - including LV and MIA winning out - to miss out.
AFC playoff chase 2021
- Thread starter j-man
- Start date
If they beat JAX, it’ll take some unlikely stars aligning - including LV and MIA winning out - to miss out.
Pittsburgh could also win out although given that they are currently down 23-0 to KC that seems extremely unlikely.
Yes Believe gmogmo is right. If the Pats win against Jacksonville, they're in. If they can't beat the Jaguars, well then, they probably shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway.
I say this recognizing that Jacksonville just beat Buffalo.
Also...keep in mind this: Though it doesn't feel like it, the Bills and the Patriots have identical records at 9-6, and they split the two head-to-head meetings.
I say this recognizing that Jacksonville just beat Buffalo.
Also...keep in mind this: Though it doesn't feel like it, the Bills and the Patriots have identical records at 9-6, and they split the two head-to-head meetings.
Currently, the Jags game is NOT win and in.
If the Pats win v JAX and lose v MIA, and LV - currently up one point v DEN - and MIA - with NO, TEN, and NE left - win out then the Pats are out of the playoffs. Specifically, in this scenario they would lose the tiebreaker with MIA (head to head record) for the 6th seed and the tiebreaker with LV (common games) for the 7th seed.
The JAX game would become win and in if Denver becomes back to beat LV or MIA loses to NO tomorrow.
If the Pats win v JAX and lose v MIA, and LV - currently up one point v DEN - and MIA - with NO, TEN, and NE left - win out then the Pats are out of the playoffs. Specifically, in this scenario they would lose the tiebreaker with MIA (head to head record) for the 6th seed and the tiebreaker with LV (common games) for the 7th seed.
The JAX game would become win and in if Denver becomes back to beat LV or MIA loses to NO tomorrow.
And if 3 teams were tied for two spots wouldn’t the tie breaker be division record so Miami would be out?
Current AFC standings
1. KC 11-4 - at Cin, at Den
2. Ten 10-5 - vs Mia, at Hou
3. Cin 9-6 - vs KC, at Cle
4. Buf 9-6 - vs Atl, vs NYJ
5. Ind 9-6 - vs LV, at Jax
6. NE 9-6 - vs Jax, at Mia
7. Bal 8-7 - vs LAR, vs Pit
- - -
8. LAC 8-7 - vs Den, at LV
9. LV 8-7 - at Ind, vs LAC
10. Pit 7-7-1 - vs Cle, at Bal
11. Mia 7-7 - at NO, at Ten, vs NE
KC will win out to go 13-4.
Ten will win out likely and finish 12-5.
Cin will go 1-1 and will finish 10-7.
Buf will win out and finish 11-6.
Ind will win out and go 11-6.
NE will go 1-1 and finish 10-7.
Bal will go 1-1 and finish 9-8.
LAC will go 2-0 and finish 10-7.
LV will go 0-2 and finish 8-9.
Pit will go 1-1 and finish 8-8-1.
Mia will go 2-1 and finish 9-8.
That would make the standings:
1. KC
2. Ten
3. Buf
4. Ind
5. Cin
6. NE
7. LAC
And the matchups would be:
1 KC - bye
7 LAC at 2 Ten
6 NE at 3 Buf
5 Cin at 4 Ind
Not a great situation for the Pats, honestly. I'd rather play Indy or Cincy in the first round. But hey, just get to the playoffs and see what happens.
1. KC 11-4 - at Cin, at Den
2. Ten 10-5 - vs Mia, at Hou
3. Cin 9-6 - vs KC, at Cle
4. Buf 9-6 - vs Atl, vs NYJ
5. Ind 9-6 - vs LV, at Jax
6. NE 9-6 - vs Jax, at Mia
7. Bal 8-7 - vs LAR, vs Pit
- - -
8. LAC 8-7 - vs Den, at LV
9. LV 8-7 - at Ind, vs LAC
10. Pit 7-7-1 - vs Cle, at Bal
11. Mia 7-7 - at NO, at Ten, vs NE
KC will win out to go 13-4.
Ten will win out likely and finish 12-5.
Cin will go 1-1 and will finish 10-7.
Buf will win out and finish 11-6.
Ind will win out and go 11-6.
NE will go 1-1 and finish 10-7.
Bal will go 1-1 and finish 9-8.
LAC will go 2-0 and finish 10-7.
LV will go 0-2 and finish 8-9.
Pit will go 1-1 and finish 8-8-1.
Mia will go 2-1 and finish 9-8.
That would make the standings:
1. KC
2. Ten
3. Buf
4. Ind
5. Cin
6. NE
7. LAC
And the matchups would be:
1 KC - bye
7 LAC at 2 Ten
6 NE at 3 Buf
5 Cin at 4 Ind
Not a great situation for the Pats, honestly. I'd rather play Indy or Cincy in the first round. But hey, just get to the playoffs and see what happens.
Oh yep. I was just going by records, but that's dumb of me. Cincy would be 4 as the AFCN division winner, while Indy would be 5 as the first wild card team. Good catch.
Damn, I'd love for the Bengals to hold onto that 3 seed, just to see the Bills-Colts war of attrition
Here's how each AFC contender has done against other AFC contenders:
Chiefs: 1 W (at LAC), 3 L (vs LAC, vs Buf, at Ten)
Titans: 4 W (vs Ind, vs Buf, vs KC, at Ind), 1 L (at NE)
Bills: 2 W (at KC, at NE), 2 L (vs Ind, vs NE)
Bengals: 0 W, 1 L (at LAC)
Colts: 2 W (at Buf, vs NE), 2 L (at Ten, vs Ten)
Patriots: 3 W (at LAC, vs Ten, at Buf), 2 L (at Ind, vs Buf)
Chargers: 2 W (at KC, at Cin), 2 L (vs NE, vs KC)
So Tennessee has done the best against this group, but the Patriots have fared quite well (3-2) against the best teams in the AFC. It's very easy to look at the immediate situation of two straight losses to contenders, but the Pats have the second best record in the conference against the top tier teams.
Chiefs: 1 W (at LAC), 3 L (vs LAC, vs Buf, at Ten)
Titans: 4 W (vs Ind, vs Buf, vs KC, at Ind), 1 L (at NE)
Bills: 2 W (at KC, at NE), 2 L (vs Ind, vs NE)
Bengals: 0 W, 1 L (at LAC)
Colts: 2 W (at Buf, vs NE), 2 L (at Ten, vs Ten)
Patriots: 3 W (at LAC, vs Ten, at Buf), 2 L (at Ind, vs Buf)
Chargers: 2 W (at KC, at Cin), 2 L (vs NE, vs KC)
So Tennessee has done the best against this group, but the Patriots have fared quite well (3-2) against the best teams in the AFC. It's very easy to look at the immediate situation of two straight losses to contenders, but the Pats have the second best record in the conference against the top tier teams.
Given the Pats' fleeting shot at the #1 seed is long gone, and now so is (for all practical purposes barring a massive Buffalo slip) the division, my ideal world for the playoffs is:
1 KC
2 Ten
3 Buf
4 Cin
5 NE
6 Ind
7 LAC
I'd much rather go to Cincinnati and take my chances with the Bengals (though their offense, when clicking, would give NE all kinds of problems; it's just that...it's still Cincy until proven otherwise), while watching the Colts and Bills beat on each other. I think the Chargers would have a real shot at upsetting the Titans as well. The other hope would be that NE slips to 7 and plays at Tennessee, because I think the Patriots could beat the Titans.
It looks like Patriot fans should be rooting for Indy over LV. It appears like they clinch next week with a win versus Jacksonville and a Raiders loss from what I can see on 538.
The ideal path at this point is the 5 seed. That gives them a reasonable chance to avoid KC until the AFCCG - it would just require one other first round upset. And if 6-7 both won, the Pats could actually host a divisional game. Long odds but crazier things have happened.
At this point, KC looks a step ahead of the rest. Indy is the riser and Buffalo has righted its ship. Cincy is a wild card, the Titans are treading and, frankly, the Patriots are the team that might have peaked too early.
Before the season, we'd be happy with this. At 2-4, we'd have been thrilled. So, it's all good
Well if the Pats are the 4-5 seed, and win, while the rest of the seedings hold, then the Pats would travel to KC for the divisional round. Of course, the same is true if the Pats are the 6 seed and win, while the rest of the seedings hold.
But yes, being the 5 means there are two other chances for lower seeded teams to upset higher seeded teams, so I get your point.
I do wonder though, if the Pats win the next two and then go into Cincy and knock them off as the 5 seed, having won three in a row, whether they might be just the kind of team, when playing well, that could knock off KC. I think they are. KC has two AWESOME receiving options, and obviously an all-world QB. But they can be handled especially by a team that has a good running game, which the Pats do. I know KC's defense is playing a lot better but still, that's how you can beat them. Slow the game down, drag it out, and hope that you can get enough coverage on Hill and Kelce. I think this team, of all the teams in the AFC, would at least have a shot at that.
Two things from playing with ESPN's playoff machine:
1. Miami might not be eliminated if they lose to Tennessee. It is plausible however unlikely.
2. The Chargers OTOH are very likely to be eliminated if they lose to Denver. This affects the Patriots because Vegas plays them the following week.
1. Miami might not be eliminated if they lose to Tennessee. It is plausible however unlikely.
2. The Chargers OTOH are very likely to be eliminated if they lose to Denver. This affects the Patriots because Vegas plays them the following week.
Not necessarily. Looks to me like Chargers would still be alive. They would need Balt and Miami to lose this week (both underdogs) and then win next week. Baltimore is currently favored over Pitt and we know Miami is capable of beating NE. Probably need a couple other games as well like KC taking care of business vs Denver. Browns winning out would jump them into contention as well.
With the Pats win and Miami loss, the Patriots are officially IN the playoffs. From 2-4 to clinching with a week to play!
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It's amazing, Mac played great (22-30, 227, 3 TDs) but Chase likely won the OROY this week.
That’d be a helluva parlay. Texans / Broncos / Jets win, gotta believe that would pay out well
I think almost all seeds from 1-7 is in the cards. One seed is incredibly hard to imagine, under five percent odds you’d think.
Fourth seed they can’t get because they have the tiebreaker over CIN.
I think 5th or 6th seed are likeliest given the matchups next week.
If Bill wants to avoid the Bills, should tank next week, unless the Bengals tank against the Browns.
538 gives us .4% odds, so yeah, under 5%. We'd need upsets from the Jets (17 point dogs), Texans (9.5 point dogs) and Broncos (3.5 point dogs). Plus the Pats only about 3 point favorites....yeah that'd be quite the week.
*edit - I'd be more than happy with the division, but that's pretty much impossible all on it's own (just a 5% chance of that, also per 538). For all the talk about the inconsistent Bills, the only really bad loss they had this year was to the Jags. They lost a one score game to Pit in week 1, other than that they've only lost to solid playoff teams (Pats, Colts, Titans, Bucs).
If the Pats lose next week and the Chargers win out and Colts win and Cincy wins they get Cincy.
If Cincy loses and Buf wins and the Pats win they then get Cincy.
So lots can happen but the Bills are probably the leader in the club house.
Bill has seen their stuff twice, faith that he knows what needs to be done to beat them.
