I miss your Bengals threads. With the Bengals back in the playoffs, I'd love to see a more in-depth breakdown (especially if they face the Pats in the first round). Congrats on the quick turnaround and division title!
AFC playoff chase 2021
- Thread starter j-man
- Start date
I think the only way BAL can get in is to get into a 3-way tiebreaker at 9-8 that involves only IND and LAC (and that requires about 5 different things to happen, so it's very unlikely) -- because BAL beat both IND and LAC head-to-head. Looks like Baltimore loses every other kind of tiebreaker.
Miami can't get themselves into a 2-way tiebreaker at 9-8. All 9-8 scenarios where there's a playoff spot left involve at least 3 teams, and Miami doesn't win any of those.
It's just funny seeing the Dolphins ahead of the Ravens in the current playoff standings, and yet they're eliminated while the Ravens are not.
The simple fix here is that games that have playoff implications should all start at the same time.
That would put all the meaningless games at 1 pm, because they're not going to have teams playing at 10 am on the west coast, and NFL won't do that.
So as I see it we have the following more likely scenarios for the Pats:
-Assume for the moment that Buffalo, KC, and Indianapolis all win.
-Pats win and get the 5 seed, which will be a matchup with Buffalo unless CIN loses to CLE.
-Pats lose and get the 6 seed if LAC beats LVR, which will be a matchup with CIN unless CIN loses
-Pats lose and get the 7 seed if LVR beats LAC, which will be a matchup with KC unless TN loses
I feel like the best route in theory would be the 6 seed as I like the matchup with CIN better than BUF, plus as the six seed you have a good chance of playing TEN next with the BUF/IND winner going to KC.
The problem is that the parlay of LAC beating LVR AND CIN beating CLE has to be under 50%, and without that parlay a Pats loss translates into either KC or BUF in the WC round.
It's probably best to just try our hardest to win the game next week, maybe not pushing anybody borderline to play but not sitting anybody either, and let the chips fall where they may.
-Assume for the moment that Buffalo, KC, and Indianapolis all win.
-Pats win and get the 5 seed, which will be a matchup with Buffalo unless CIN loses to CLE.
-Pats lose and get the 6 seed if LAC beats LVR, which will be a matchup with CIN unless CIN loses
-Pats lose and get the 7 seed if LVR beats LAC, which will be a matchup with KC unless TN loses
I feel like the best route in theory would be the 6 seed as I like the matchup with CIN better than BUF, plus as the six seed you have a good chance of playing TEN next with the BUF/IND winner going to KC.
The problem is that the parlay of LAC beating LVR AND CIN beating CLE has to be under 50%, and without that parlay a Pats loss translates into either KC or BUF in the WC round.
It's probably best to just try our hardest to win the game next week, maybe not pushing anybody borderline to play but not sitting anybody either, and let the chips fall where they may.
I honestly think at this point, all Belichick is focused on is getting his team to play to their potential. That means playing to win. I think he wants to know they're playing at a high level going into the playoffs. He knows they're not good enough to screw around. So this coming week is all about getting better and trying to reach peak performance. And if they achieve that, there's no way the Dolphins are winning that game. There's no chance he's thinking about seeding or anything like that.
Now he might rest a player who's dinged up. For example, Harris might see limited action because he's needed for the playoffs. But other than things like that, BB will absolutely look to win this coming week.
Now he might rest a player who's dinged up. For example, Harris might see limited action because he's needed for the playoffs. But other than things like that, BB will absolutely look to win this coming week.
I completely agree and its usually the right approach. I just wanted to game out the scenarios and see if there was any benefit to doing anything else, which there really isn't.
There is so much parity in the AFC that any team making the playoffs, bar maybe LVR, has a legit shot at going to the Super Bowl if they can string a few weeks of good play together.
This seems right. According to the Athletic the Ravens need a win plus the Jags to beat the Colts, the Raiders to beat the Chargers, the Patriots to beat or tie Miami and the Browns losing 1 of their 2 remaining games. 3 of the 4 seem plausible. A Jags upset would be a chaos trigger and open the door for the Ravens or Steelers.
Cincy winning yesterday took a lot of the drama out of week 17. We could've had a AFC North free for all. There would've been 3-teams alive for the division. 9-7 Cincy, 8-8 Baltimore and winner of the the Browns/Steelers game tonight. Good on the Bungles.
Thank you, and much appreciated. It's been a long five years (well, really a long existence) so this is pretty fun. They had very good rosters early in the Dalton era but his limitations always capped the ceiling. That obviously doesn't exist with Burrow. They're a few pieces away from being elite (the OL is still really suspect) but the organization has done a complete 180 the last couple years and it's pretty fun to be playing in and winning big games again. Hopefully they can at least get the playoff monkey off their back this year (almost none of these guys were there for it but it certainly weighs on the organization and the fans) before making a deep run next year, although as MMS mentioned the AFC is pretty open. Burrow is only going to be cheap for one more year so they've got to make things happen while that lasts.
Baltimore was eliminated from division contention with their loss. Even if the Bengals lost, the best the Ravens could finish is tied with the Bengals at 9-8 and the Bengals swept them. If the Bengals, Browns and Ravens were all 9-8, the Browns would win the tiebreaker.
I know they beat the Patriots but I'd put the Colts at the bottom of the barrel. They have by far the worst quarterback and I don't see them winning three road games in any scenario.
Actually it’s better than you think. Burrow is under his rookie contract for TWO more years at cap numbers of about 9 and 11m, respectively. Then they can elect his fifth year option, which would probably be somewhere in the 20-25m range.
So they’ve got like three more years before they’ll need to allocate elite QB cap dollars to him.
He's eligible for an extension though after next year. Mahomes got his after his third year even though he didn't play his rookie year. I'd imagine Burrow is going to want to get paid then.
Oh, I agree. But they can structure it like the Mahomes deal, where Burrow gets some big cash upfront but the cap numbers don’t skyrocket until several years out. Even with the big extension Mahomes’ cap numbers stayed under 10m through the duration of what would have been his rookie contract (‘17-21) because of how the salaries and bonuses were structured.
Everyone can win, especially since the cap is likely to rise quite a bit over the next 4-5 years.
Yeah, that's correct. It's unfortunately still in the back of my mind that Mike Brown wouldn't want to play that game as they never kick big cap numbers down the road, but he did give Palmer a top of the market deal and I can't imagine he'd do anything to jeopardize Burrow not being here long-term.
Completely agree with this too. It's more worth it to get the best possible seed and let the chips fall where they may than to try to game your opponent, especially when gaming is contingent upon results not within your control happening. It's not like losing will lock the Pats into a specific opponent, like back in 2005 when they lost to Miami to face Jacksonville. But also agree with your point about guys like Harris.
Edit: maximizing seed also give them a chance at a home game at some point, however unlikely. And obviously the division hasn't even been clinched yet.
I could probably post this in any number of threads, but is anyone else feeling very weird today that it's January 3, we just wrapped up week 17... and the playoffs don't start this coming weekend? I mean it's great that football will get us through an extra week of winter and one week closer to spring, but the divisional round is going to feel so late this year.
I'm just glad that we're one step closer to my dream scenario, which is to have spring training start at most 3 days after the Super Bowl so that there's never an offseason between the two. (And no, a bunch of meaningless mid-season basketball/hockey games don't count.)
Just need to have a new MLB CBA and we're practically there.
Just need to have a new MLB CBA and we're practically there.
Apparently the kneel down thing is real. This is what I'm rooting for next week.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamHBeasley/status/1478032317486612482?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/AdamHBeasley/status/1478032317486612482?s=20
It looks like that's only if Pittsburgh also loses/ties another game. If they win out, then LAC/LV can only both get in with a tie if the Colts lose.
What teams would actually do this?
He is abusing the word ‘literally’ in that tweet, as there are several motivations for playing to win. For one thing, a tie likely signs LV up to play KC rather than BUF or CIN, and I’m not sure that’s what they’re looking for after getting obliterated by them twice. Also, these teams actually give a shit about maintaining competitive edge. It’s one thing to sit some guys who are banged up; it’s another to field a team that is then instructed to not play football against a division rival. Third, the NFL and network would throw a shitfit over it. You don’t think the owners would think about the political ramifications of a stunt like that? And that’s not to mention any potential penalties the NFL could formally pursue; I have no idea what those could be, however, off the top of my head.
And yet it has happened before at a much larger sporting tournament The Disgrace of Gijon.
That game is why all final group stage games are played at the same time at the world cup now.
So, in the unlikely event of a Bills loss and a Titans loss, wouldn't the Patriots get the #1 seed? Since they would have an outright better record than Buffalo, and the head-to-head win vs. Tennesee?
The odds of Jacksonville winning are so astronomical that the NFL has nothing to worry about.
Not to mention plenty of players have incentives in their contracts, and even those who don’t presumably have an interest in trying to improve their stats, etc. Agents would be furious if this occurred as well.
That is a lot of planets that have to align.
That being said, if it's Buffalo, I don't expect Josh Allen to have a game like he did a couple of weeks ago, where he was almost perfect. So, that's what I am mentally preparing myself for.
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One quibble here.
If the Raiders win they are either the 6 seed - If New England wins - or the 5 seed if New England loses. They have the tie breaker over the Colts, Steelers and Ravens via H2H wins and tie breakers over the Pats. The Raiders can only be the 7 seed if they get in with a loss - which requires Pittsburgh and Indy to lose.
The craziest Sunday night scenario besides the "it is in both of our interests to tie" scenario is one where Pittsburg & Indy have already lost and both teams (LAC & LV) would rather be the 7 seed based on the matchups (ie. I imagine both want nothing to do with the Chiefs in round 1) and thus are both hoping to lose. I think both of these teams would rather beat the other than be any particular seed, but I would expect that Herbert wouldn't play if Pitt & Indy have lost and Derek Carr would come out one play after he breaks Rich Gannon's franchise season passing yards record (72 yards).
It seems like there is some significant market sentiment that the Bengals will rest their starters. Lines are all over the place.
View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1478422500312862734
View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1478422500312862734
I imagine they'll leave it open until after Saturday unless Burrow really needs a week off. If KC loses at Denver, I would have to think they'll go all out for the 2-seed (and maybe 1 - hey, the Texans punch above their weight and they've already beaten the Titans).
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It's amazing that going into the last game, the Pats could finish in any of the 7 seeds. Of course 4 of them hinge on a Bills loss / Pats win.
Let's go Jets, Browns, Texans and Jags! Doing the math, chances are Pats 74% * Jets 14% * Browns 46% (really ?!?!) * Texans 19% * Jags 23% (really ?!?!) or 0.21% of happening
Let's go Jets, Browns, Texans and Jags! Doing the math, chances are Pats 74% * Jets 14% * Browns 46% (really ?!?!) * Texans 19% * Jags 23% (really ?!?!) or 0.21% of happening
What I think will happen...
Current standings:
1. Ten 11-5
2. KC 11-5
3. Cin 10-6
4. Buf 10-6
5. NE 10-6
6. Ind 9-7
7. LAC 9-7
8. LV 9-7
9. Pit 8-7-1
11. Bal 8-8
KC beats Den. KC 12-5.
Cin beats Cle. Cin 11-6.
Ind beats Jax. Ind 10-7.
Bal beats Pit. Pit 8-8-1. Bal 9-8.
Ten beats Hou. Ten 12-5.
NYJ beats Buf. Yep. Buf 10-7. The upset maybe of the year. (besides Jax over Buffalo)
NE beats Mia. NE 11-6.
LAC beats LV. LAC 10-7. LV 9-8.
So....
1. Ten 12-5
2. KC 12-5
3. NE 11-6*
4. Cin 11-6
5. Ind 10-7**
6. Buf 10-7
7. LAC 10-7
*NE would win tiebreaker vs. Cin based on better record vs. common opponents (NYJ, Jax, Cle, LAC) - Cin would be 2-3; NE would be 5-0.
**Ind wins tiebreaker over Buf and LAC; Buf wins tiebreaker over LAC.
That would make the first round playoff matchups:
1 Ten - bye
7 LAC at 2 KC
6 Buf at 3 NE
5 Ind at 4 Cin
(I'll probably get most of this entirely wrong.)
Current standings:
1. Ten 11-5
2. KC 11-5
3. Cin 10-6
4. Buf 10-6
5. NE 10-6
6. Ind 9-7
7. LAC 9-7
8. LV 9-7
9. Pit 8-7-1
11. Bal 8-8
KC beats Den. KC 12-5.
Cin beats Cle. Cin 11-6.
Ind beats Jax. Ind 10-7.
Bal beats Pit. Pit 8-8-1. Bal 9-8.
Ten beats Hou. Ten 12-5.
NYJ beats Buf. Yep. Buf 10-7. The upset maybe of the year. (besides Jax over Buffalo)
NE beats Mia. NE 11-6.
LAC beats LV. LAC 10-7. LV 9-8.
So....
1. Ten 12-5
2. KC 12-5
3. NE 11-6*
4. Cin 11-6
5. Ind 10-7**
6. Buf 10-7
7. LAC 10-7
*NE would win tiebreaker vs. Cin based on better record vs. common opponents (NYJ, Jax, Cle, LAC) - Cin would be 2-3; NE would be 5-0.
**Ind wins tiebreaker over Buf and LAC; Buf wins tiebreaker over LAC.
That would make the first round playoff matchups:
1 Ten - bye
7 LAC at 2 KC
6 Buf at 3 NE
5 Ind at 4 Cin
(I'll probably get most of this entirely wrong.)
This would not shock me.
I think the Bills have this unearned arrogance that keeps biting them in the ass against weaker teams and the Jets have been feisty lately.
I think that they can't finish 4th. If they win their game and the Bills lose theirs, I think the Pats finish ahead of Cinci regardless of their result.
But still 1-3 or 5-7 is still insane.
EDIT: Nevermind--a Pats tie, Bills loss, Cinci win does give them the 4 seed.
I feel like of all of the improbable upsets that need to happen for the Patriots, the Jets beating the Bills is the most plausible.
It is so unfortunate that the path to the #1 seed relies on the 3 worst teams in the AFC beating other playoff opponents with seeding on the line.
It is so unfortunate that the path to the #1 seed relies on the 3 worst teams in the AFC beating other playoff opponents with seeding on the line.
After a year without being in the playoffs, I'm just happy to watch an extra game or few. Any previous year, I was definitely doing the same thing by rooting for seeding though.
I don't expect much from them in the playoffs with a rookie QB. I'm sure I'll be back to caring about seeding next year.
Give me any of the teams. Let's go.
I don't expect much from them in the playoffs with a rookie QB. I'm sure I'll be back to caring about seeding next year.
Give me any of the teams. Let's go.
Jags played Indy tight on the road. This is my upset special this week. Ben is going to be so annoyed when he finds out he has to play another game after next week.
All of this. It's nearly 10 days out but I'm fired up for wildcard weekend. I don't care as much about the seed or who they play. As long as the Pats aren't playing the Monday night game. That would be annoying.
Same. I've said a few times that I think they're ahead of schedule and the postseason is house money. And that's weird to say with still an outside shot at the #1 seed.
I'll be nervous af during the game, but it won't seem life or death like it did with Brady.
100% agree. Of course I want to keep winning but this feels like the start of a new era not the last remnants of the golden era. So I’m giddy with where the Pats are right now.
Whole season has felt completely different from any Brady year cause there wasn't the weight of history with every season building (don't get me wrong I'd still love to be winning with Brady here), but there was a feeling of missed opportunity with every bad regular season loss that cost seeding, or bad playoff run (not that there were many).. now it just feels like the wonder of what might the team do